Closing Bell Overtime: 3/27/26

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1:25It is its worst losing streak in four years. Our market's team has all the angles covered. Stocks, bonds, oil, and we're of course watching everything coming out of the White House. Also on our radar, Meta has been getting more attention, but Google also down big this week. We'll talk to an analyst who says it's time to buy. And while every other mag 7 named fell this week, Apple is in the green. So can this stock live up to its reputation as a safety play? And though there will only be four trading days next week is setting up as a big one for the markets, we will get all set for that. But we start with Christina Parks and Nevelas on this down day wrapping up a losing week, Christina. Yeah, the fifth week of war and the fifth week of sell-offs with the Dow and the NASDAQ, both at least 10% off their 52-week highs, consumer discretionary though, leading today's losses. The XLY ETF on track for its worst month since December 2022, Decker's and the Sea of Red was the only one I could find in the green today. Financial's also lower this week, dragged down by crypto and FinTech stocks like

2:25Robinhood, Block Coinbase, City, also finished in the red today. Specifically on a report, it may be eyeing a regional bank, but a claim the company later denied. The NASDAQ 100 hasn't hit an all-time high in 102 sessions. It's longest stretch since 2023. The biggest weight you talked about it, Big Tech, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, each down roughly 20 to 30% from their recent highs, also lost, the Mag 7 lost about one trillion in market cap just over the last two days. Specifically today, DataDog was the worst performer in both the S&B 500, NASDAQ 100, tumbling alongside other cybersecurity names like Palo Alto, CrowdStrike after reports that Anthropics knew AI model could pose some fresh security risks. And then in chips, we had arm give back some profit taking, give back some games, I should say, on profit taking, while memory stocks managed to eke out a small gain across the board, but Micron still down roughly 15% or more just in the last five days as investors really react to the latest Google technology and how it's

3:26changing the memory space if so. All right, Christina, thanks so much. I want to get to Rick on bonds a lot for the Treasury market to contend with this week, Rick. There was a lot of supply. And then of course you have the push pull of inflation from oil and meant some growth concerns. Yeah, I mean, it's getting it from all directions, which really makes today a fascinating session. Let's look at two year versus crude oil prices starting right before the conflict began on the 26th of February. And do note that we're up about 50 basis points since that Friday on the 27th close, you'll see that little spike on the left side of the chart, that little V, that's the close, and we're up about 50 basis points. Now, let's go to a two day chart, okay? We're the long term correlated over the last two days, two years have waved off crude oil. As a matter of fact, right now, a two year is down nine basis points on the day. And it is unchanged on the week. Let's look at

4:33two's and tens for the week. We see that 10 years up about five basis points on the week. But this is very interesting because maybe it's disengaged from oil for a variety of reasons. One of them might be that the equity markets are paying such close attention to energy aspects. And they have been in the red. Maybe there's a little bit of flight to safety showing up in twos, but no matter how you slice it, that de-linking from that oil is an important dynamic, especially occurring on a Friday. Mike, back to you. Yeah, that was absolutely a fascinating sort of over the course of the day. Rick, thanks very much. Well, stocks, of course, selling off as oil once again moves higher, Pippa Stevens has all the details for us. Hey, Mike, Debbie, I am Brent seeing their highest settles since July 2022 and turning positive on the week with deputy I retaking that $100 level as Secretary Rubio reportedly told G7 ministers the war will continue for another two to four weeks, that's according to Axios traders also on edge ahead of the weekend and don't want to be

5:33short given we've seen weekend escalations. Meantime at the pump, the national average holding at $3.98 per gallon in Americans have now spent $400 million more per day on gasoline since the war broke out, or $7.2 billion in total, that's according to gas buddy. Gasoline futures adding another 3% today. Now, the energy sector is seeing a record 14th straight week of gains, but the moves are sub sector specific. The service's names like Baker Hughes, Kendra Morgan and SLB are lagging, they're less sensitive to the price of oil. Also, their operations have been impacted and producers haven't meaningfully increased output. The drillers and the refiners are the top performers in the last month with APA marathon petroleum, Valera, Oxy and Philip 66, all at more than 20% and Marathon, Valera, Exxon and Chevron and EQT as well, all hitting record highs today, Mike. All right, Pippa, thanks so much. While news coming out of Washington, a major factor driving the markets, let's get to Amin Javers with the latest Amin. Yeah, Mike, that's right. The big question

6:36is how long is all this going to last? Will Secretary of State Marco Rubio stop to talk to reporters during a G7 foreign ministers meeting in France earlier today? And he gave an upbeat assessment of progress in the war in Iran and also said the United States needs to finish the job. Here's what he said. The Department of War has consistently outlined we are on or ahead of schedule in that operation and expect it concluded at the appropriate time here. No matter of weeks, not months, and the progress is going very well. Obviously, we have some work to do, we have to finish the job and we are finishing that job. So you heard Rubio there saying weeks, not months. Rubio also said the United States would be done with the Iranians in quote the next couple of weeks. So Mike, that gives you some insight into the administration's thinking on the timeline of the war. Now for his part, President Trump is on his way to Florida where he's expected to give remarks to the Saudi backed investment conference known as the Future Investment Initiative this

7:37evening. We'll monitor that for any news as well. Back over to you. Yeah, Amen. I was trying to sync up the timing of only got headlines of Secretary Rubio's comments in that direction and whether, in fact, the market spilled lower in response that was around the middle of the day, I believe. It just feels like two to four weeks if that was what the headline was, somewhat extends things beyond the total of four to six weeks. I know we're splitting hairs here and nobody knows whether there's an actual plan or signal in it all. But it feels as if we're hinging on these hints. Yeah, I mean, the administration initially said four to six weeks overall. We're going into the fifth week now. So you'd expect, you know, if that timetable was holding, you'd expect to sort of be in a wrap-up phase and it just doesn't look like that given the situation on the ground right now. But, you know, anything can change, Mike, there's so much about this we don't know, including what the options are for ground forces in Iran and whether that's the kind of thing that could break the log jam here or just make this much, much worse. So it's really difficult to predict

8:39and you see the administration trying to predict, project confidence while not giving themselves, you know, a hard day that they have to live with. Yeah. And obviously, kind of testing the market's ability to deal with it all with composure. Amen. Thank you very much. Talk to you again soon. Well, since the start of the Iran War, the major averages are now down more than seven percent and all three below their key 200-day and 50-day moving averages and all three indices close lower for their fifth straight week. So are we getting close to some kind of a bottom joining me now is new edge wealth chief investment officer Cameron Dawson. Cameron, great to see you. Thank you for having me. You know, it's obviously not a yes-no question. It's a big matrix of signals here, but you're coming into the week. I know you were kind of looking at a lot of indicators and saying, maybe close, but not quite there or some some things looked extreme, but not all. Are we at the so bad? It's good point. Well, the good news is is that on a daily basis, we are likely oversold after today's price action. You look at things like a daily RSI, you look at the percentage of names above their 50-day moving average,

9:41that would suggest that we've moved very far very fast to the downside. We could see a short-term bounce. The caveat to that is that we're not close to a longer term oversold. So think weekly RSI, percentage of names above their 200-day moving average, or even things like 20-day lows, or even put call ratios that suggest a kind of panic in the market. Those quite haven't quite triggered yet. So we would say a short-term bounce, but there still could be some volatility. I think as I have been, you've been focused to some degree on the 2025 scenario and the market's interaction with the terror of shock and where we got to with it. You know, I noted this morning as of this date last year, the S&P was down almost exactly the same amount from its high, and as it happened last year, we were only halfway to the low because we got the liberation days, shock a few days later. Not to suggest we have to follow the same path, but in terms of what the market's looking for and how it prices itself in relation to those things.

10:42Well, we'd say the one thing is that we think that the ultimate low potentially of this correction could be the pre-liberation day, right? That's 6,162-hundred kind of level. But I think the key difference between today and liberation days, that during liberation day and the lead up to it, people were aggressively cutting their estimates for both GDP and earnings. So now we're in a scenario where people have seemed to wise and up, they say, we're not going to cut our estimates because we're just going to have to raise them. And in fact, you've actually seen earnings estimates go up. So in some ways, there's a sense of complacency in this market where we're not pricing in even an ounce or a smidge of any kind of downside to the U.S. economy from this energy price shock. Though I do know, and we talked about this earlier as well, which is a lot of the source of the upside to earnings forecast is coming from semiconductors, which we know is downstream of the wild cap expending that we've heard is going to happen from the hyperscalers and then, of course, energy earnings. But I guess your point is, we're kind of giving credit for that, but not assigning any costs to it for the rest of the

11:43index. Yeah, and it's a good reminder that in video alone is more than double the weight of the entire energy sector. But even if you look at the equal weight earnings estimates, those have hockey stick tires as well. And so that suggests to us that analysts remain very sanguine about what this will ultimately impact overall corporate earnings power, because the average stock is seeing its earnings revised higher. That means that it's not just, it's not just AI. It's good to remember, earnings will always peak after the market peaks. They are a very lagging indicator. So we could be in an environment where you're seeing these revisions higher, and yet you're seeing all the weakness within valuation compression and valuations for something like semiconductors have fallen by 30% in the last three months. And I noted S&P 500 based on the 12 month forward estimates actually ducked below 20 today or yesterday. Not to say that's cheap historically, but it's sort of the lower end of the multi-year range except for liberation day. And we bottomed at 18 times in liberation day. Now if you go back to 2022, we bottom

12:46closer to about 15 and a half times forward. So for us, it really is the idea that you've really derated this market in a material way. Growth stocks have probably derated the most. If you look at technology stocks, it's not just semiconductors, but software as well. And so those names have actually undercut their valuations from liberation day and are just two multiple turns above where they were in 2022. So assuming we can extrapolate the current earnings power, maybe there's some value that's starting to emerge in pockets. I was going to say that. I mean, I guess if you're going to spend this little panic moment, even if it's not full panic, figuring out what you'd prefer to own or how your portfolio should look coming out of this, where does that take you? Yeah, I think some of the challenges that just blindly buying an area like software ignores that there are going to be areas of that portion of the market that will be significantly disrupted. But if you look at the degree of the downside and how correlated all those stocks have been, it's likely that we are throwing the baby out with the bathwater. So it's a great opportunity to be sharpening the pencils to

13:47say what are the areas that will be more immune to something like AI disruption and are on sale, not just because of AI fears, but also because of these warfare. Everything seems sensitive to just exactly how long the hire for longer is for rates and for oil, obviously. Oh, 100%. And if we look at the rate story, obviously across the curve, there are challenges. You have a 10-year yield at 4.44%. Terrible for the housing market. You have a two-year yield that's now above the fed funds rate, which suggests a tighter fed liquidity policy that we get out of the central bank. And it just suggests that the bond market is no longer the tailwind that it was over the last three years. Although as we were just talking, twos came in today and you'll see if that's a real shift or not. Cam, we're great to talk to you. Thank you very much. All right, meta and Google, both hit hard this week on adverse legal decisions. Up next, we'll talk to an analyst who says, this week's drop is a chance to buy Google at a discount and investor shouldn't worry about the case outcome. She'll make her case. You're watching Closing Bell Over Time Live from the NASDAQ

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16:24sir. Here is my Discover Card. They accept a discover at Renaissance Fairs. Yeah, they do here. Discoverers accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it with the Times. With the Times. You're playing the loot. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right? Discoverers accepted at 99 percent of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nilsen report. Welcome back. Cheers of energy at an all-time high today. The company is saying it expanded a power supply contract with Meta for Meta's data center in Louisiana. Energy says it will build seven natural gas facilities at Meta's expense. Meta stock, having another down day, though, off 4 percent and down nearly 20 percent in March, the second worst stock in the NASDAQ 100 over that span. Well, Meta was not the only mag seven named to see big losses recently. Alphabet is down 8 percent in the past five days. That's its worst week in more than a year after being found libel in the social media addiction trial. Our next guest says the weakness related to the ruling

17:26is an opportunity to buy the stock. Joining me now is Laura Martin from Needham, Laura. Great to have you on here. So why should we look on the bright side here from this legal loss? So I think what's important to note is A, this is not a 230 restriction where they're going to get liability for content creation. This is about the addictiveness of algorithms, meaning they best practiced it for algorithms. And it only relates to kids under 18, which is less than 10 percent of YouTube users. And it wasn't a search suit. It's a YouTube suit. So 5 percent of the monetization of YouTube and less than 10 percent of their audience is covered. So if there was no behavioral remedies in this decision, but if they had to make them, if they had to ring fence minors, like that would affect less than 5 percent of their revenue. Secondly, kids will just lie about their age and say they're 23. So kids can get around this. But anyway, moving on, I think this is a lousy deal for the lawyers who would prosecute meaning. They filed these lawsuit, this lawsuit around one plaintiff, the best case plaintiff, with the best set of circumstances. They got 3 million

18:31awarded by the jury plus 3 million impudent damages, which meant 6 million for this one best case plaintiff, which then sets up the settlement. Because these guys, Google says it's going to appeal, which means we're going to make another two years. And this started in 2022. The lawyers only get 40 percent of the profits. So right now, they just made 2 million. They probably spent 10. They're not going to get a penny until they go through the appeals process, which may overturn this. So in which case your settlements are going to pay for all those other thousands, they're not going to want to go to trial. They're going to be in the hundreds of thousands each, and these are trillion dollar companies, both met at in Google. So I just think, and like I said, it doesn't threaten their main revenue. It doesn't threaten the YouTube algorithm. It doesn't threaten really the monetization of YouTube, meaningfully. That seems reassuring if you're an alphabet investor. If in fact, the recent weakness is largely about concern over the legal situation. Do you get the sense that's the case? Obviously, the whole market's down, and people are concerned about one thing or another around AI and spending. But to what degree do your clients think

19:36the legal issues are material? So I would say of the 8 percent decline you just brought up. 2 percent is related to the legal, because it's just happened in the last two days. And the other 6 percent is market risk. But also, I think Wall Street has put in a limit on these hyperscalers spending $180 billion, meaning in that 180 that Google that alphabet says it's spending this year, they're doing quantum, which is 10 years from now follows Jedi. We don't want them doing that. We don't want them losing money on Waymo. We want to push back. And you see meta here, sort of cutting a lot of metaverse people. We don't want these companies spending anything on something that has a lower cost to cap or return on capital than Gen AI. We don't want them to just do an extra 50 billion because they can. So we're starting to mark down their stocks because we want to put a limit on these people's capital spending and making sure it's really targeted at the highest return on capital for the CapEx they're doing. Bigger picture, I wondered about this for a long time and I know it's a moving target in terms of the estimates. But how much of alphabets value do you think you can assign to YouTube in general?

20:41Good. So we value it every single quarter every time they release and we get between 20 and 25% of alphabets total value is YouTube. And we if it was spun off separately, if it's part of that bundle, people don't buy Google, they don't buy alphabet because of YouTube. So it gets pulled down by the multiple of search. But if it was independently traded, we think it would trade at a 40% discount to where it's valued within Google, which would be 20 to 25% of alphabets total value. So obviously plenty worth paying a lot of attention to on on meta. Obviously it looks cheaper. It's been hit harder. It doesn't have as clear a path to monetize probably on its AI spending. But what's your stance on that one? So we have a hold here for three key reasons and not having to do with the lawsuit although lawsuit was was worse for them. So they're getting hurt worse because 70% of the six million was allocated to Instagram meta and only 30% to you to Google. But what I would say is a strategy diffusion. That guy, the CEO there, is just doing too many

21:42things and they all cost way too much money and they're all losing money. So you see he's laid off a thousand hundreds of people today in the metaverse and he changed his name for the metaverse. So basically, and we hate the fact he's losing six billion dollars a year on reality labs when he's trying to keep up with Amazon and Google spending. He's going to spend 140 on CapEx. He's paying his people a fortune. I don't know if you saw share grants. Target, you know, he's got a $500 stock price. He's got, he's issuing share grants at $3,200 a share. That's up five X from today to his top six people. So the share grants of the average employee across all of his employees, 70,000 employees makes $250,000 a year in their stock option grants. So that's diluted if the stars start working. That becomes a headwind of public shareholders. And he's doing off balance, financings and all of us are scared of those because of Enron. All those special purpose vehicles, remember those horrible things that took down Arthur Anderson and Enron. He's doing those at meta to try to sort of hide his CapEx so it's not on the balance sheet. All that.

22:43Yeah. All right. Well, you articulate well why there's suspicion around the capital allocation strategy at at MetaLaura. Good to talk to you. Thank you. For Martin from Needham, airline stocks falling once again today. Two big issues plaguing those names. One of those, however, may be nearing a resolution. Those details coming up on overtime. 878-8 hope, and why MD-visit MD gambling helped outdoor. Offer not available, on all stages, terms apply, sea binetic support to go get. Oh, could this vintage store be any cuder? Right. And the best part? They accept discover. Accept discover? In a little place like this? I don't think so Jennifer.

23:43Oh yeah, huh. Discovers accepted where I'd like to shop. Come on, baby. Get with the times. Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants? These are making a comeback, I think. Discoverers accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nilsen report, Before we had AT&T Business Wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14-point turn to get back on route, a 14-point turn, an influence or even live stream the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T Business Wireless, router updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influence it did get us 53 new followers though. AT&T Business Wireless. Connecting changes everything. Welcome back to overtime. It was another rough day for the airlines. United American Southwest all down at least 4% as investors consider the impact of high jet fuel prices and as the Iran war drags on.

24:45Since the war began, those stocks have each lost 15% or more of their value. President Trump this afternoon ordering the Homeland Security Secretary to pay TSA agents in an effort to alleviate the long lines that we're seeing at airports around the country. Emily Wilkins has the latest. Hi Emily. I am Michael. Yes, we've got President Trump now following through on what he said yesterday as far as paying TSA agents in the middle of course what is about to become the longest government partial shutdown to date only in a few more days on that one. And it's looking like they will make that record. You know, we started off very early this morning with the Senate moving legislation. But now we are hearing from the House including Speaker Mike Johnson saying that the bill can not go forward as is slamming the Senate for allowing a bill to pass that doesn't include funding for all of ICE. And instead putting forward a measure that would temporarily fund the Department of Homeland Security until May 22nd. Now the House is currently in the process of moving forward on that bill.

25:46But it isn't likely to get any democratic support in the House where it can still pass or in the Senate. And that's of course the problem. Anything the House sends over to the Senate at this point would need to have bipartisan support, would need to get 60 vote. And the Senate is out of town. So it is really unclear even if the House does wind up passing something to fund the Department of Homeland Security in the next few days. Exactly when that's actually going to get through the whole process and make it to the President's desk. So a lot of confusion I think right now on Capitol Hill as far as what next steps are really going to be. And how this actually fully gets resolved. What's the mechanism Emily by which by executive order of TSA agents can be paid? Is that something that we that we know? So we know that we remember that President Trump did this a little bit in the last government shutdown. Remember there were times where the military wasn't going to get paid. Certain programs weren't going to be funded. And Trump was able to through executive orders through moving funds around buying ways to cover those paychecks and those programs.

26:51And by doing so he does take some pressure off of Congress. He gives them a little bit more breathing room to try to figure out a way forward. But it's important to remember that wall TSA lines might be the area that Americans are feeling most pain with this shutdown. There are plenty of other agencies that are going without funding. FEMA is going without funding the coast guard, the division that oversees cybersecurity threats. None of those are being funded right now and unlike ice and customs and border patrol. They did not get a huge influx of funding in that Trump megabill that passed last year. And that's been a concern for a lot of lawmakers that those agencies could be going for weeks, maybe even longer, without getting the funds that they need. Right and that's of course not the source of the dispute in the first place, those other parts of Homeland Security. Emily, thank you very much for the update. Time for CBC News Update now with Mackenzie Cigal. Hey, Mike. The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations said today that Iran has agreed to quote facilitate and expedite humanitarian aid through the street of four moves.

27:57He said the move was granted at the request of the U.N. The announcement came hours after Israel claimed responsibility for striking two nuclear facilities in Iran vowed to retaliate. Republicans in Missouri won a redistricting victory today after a judge allowed a President Trump-backed district map to be used ahead of the midterms. But there is still the potential for a voter referendum on the new map. After opponents gathered more than 300,000 signatures in an effort to get the matter before voters. Antiger Woods involved in a roll over crash today on Jupiter Island in Florida. That's according to the Martin County Sheriff who says the crash occurred around 2 p.m. Eastern on a street in the town where he lives. No other details were available, but the sheriff says he will provide an update at 5 p.m. Eastern time. Mike, back to you. Mackenzie, thank you. Well, today's drop-in, the Dow means it's now more than 10 percent off its recent high. The Nasdaq down 12 percent, the S&P 500, holding up the best, still down 9 percent from its peak.

28:58So are those declines assigned at even more selling ahead over time? We'll be right back. Welcome back to Closing Bell, over time, live from the Nasdaq Market site. The Dow today losing nearly 800 points. The Nasdaq, the biggest loser, closing down more than 2 percent. Both of those indexes now down 10 percent from their recent highs. For the week, the S&P 500 losing more than 2 percent. That is its fifth straight down week, the longest weekly losing streak in four years. And the Russell, managing to eke out a small gain. So let's stay with the market. Our next guest says equities remain on downgrade watch for him. And the key will be whether this war heads into April. Joining me now is 314 research co-founder Warren Pies. Warren, good to see April's coming fast. Obviously it's next Wednesday. I guess a week ago you thought maybe you give it a week to see if we get the escalation to taco trade. So explain the thinking now. Yeah, thank you for having me. I think we've just like everybody.

29:58You know, maybe we all learned the wrong lesson from last year, which is to just to weigh and expect a capitulation. And look for that off ramp in one of these kind of self-induced market selloffs. But I think it's been prudent to wait and to let technicals guide you in this. But we are getting to the point where the rubber meets the road. I think it's the. I do think there are signs that this this selloff is starting to move into the second phase, which is where investors are seeing that this is not a short lived conflict. You're seeing the back end of the crude the crude curve start to reflect longer a longer time elevated crude oil prices. And you're seeing some process that moves you're seeing gold rally. You're seeing the two year yields drop in the face of oil rally and the stock market falling today. That's the first I think warning sign that the market's going to start looking through the inflationary first early impacts of this into the recessionary consequences.

31:00Yeah, that for sure I you saw you highlight that today which was significant that there was a bit of a switch from from how this thing has traded for the past few weeks. You know at the same time you said let the technicals guide you I mean we keep waiting for for this kind of people say whether we need some kind of a real flush some kind of comprehensive liquidation you see a lot of stocks trading at their lows. You know it feels like it sometimes does when you have some of that climactic action but maybe not everything lined up. Yeah, I don't think it's there yet to be honest I wish I wish I could say that but what we're still knowing the oil market like I do like we're looking down the barrel at a very very serious situation. Now if this last like Rubio's comments the g seven today was hey two to four more weeks of this last four weeks you know the S&P 500 is going into a bear market. That oil will be at $150 a barrel you know that's there will be shortages it's not trying to be an alarmist but this is just you need to be so reminded about what you're facing down and I don't see sentiment reflecting that yet we look at like managed money or we look at a inverse ETF volume that's it's like where you expect to be for a run of the mill pull back and things like that.

32:10But I don't see the real fear and panic in the levels that we're talking about we moved into this consolidation range where we lost momentum back in February that's when we initially downgraded stocks. And we basically said okay we want to see this range resolved and that range was $65.38 on the downside $6,900 on the upside broke through $65.38 we're waiting to get some good closes a weekly close below that. So I think you should expect the momentum to accelerate to the downside from here based on technicals and sentiment to me. Yeah I mean you've made the point when it comes to oil it's sort of a cumulative effect to some degree we have this daily shortfall we're kind of burning through reserves and you know releases and there's some I guess rationing going on but how does that snowball if we go two to four weeks. Yeah so to me and we talked about this a week ago so every day I would say just as a good rough estimate and this includes the SPR release this includes the bypass pipeline to the Red Sea from the East West pipeline.

33:11I still there's still the 10 million barrel a day hole in the market every day and that's with all the best assumptions I can possibly made. If we roll that forward one month that's 300 million barrels that we lost we can already see it's gone on the water the water excess inventories are gone. Now we're cutting into onshore excess inventories as we roll into April that's there you're you're going to draw below what we would consider excess and then you you move into even if we get a resolution to the war and we open the straight of our moves back up you still have time to get production and we lost refinery capacity back online. This tells me that best case scenario is we're going to lose 600 million barrels of inventory out of global inventories. That's about an 8 billion barrel storage globally that's a huge number that's more than we've ever seen in any calendar year on record. So that's in two months that's that we're changing the shape of the oil market in real time in a short two month window never seen anything like it before.

34:14So I guess where do you would you reach for some kind of insulation against the market impact of all that. We're recommending to our clients looking out not in the very front part of the Brent curve but like August say the August contract for Brent crew features. I think you have like maybe $10 a downside that yesterday when we were talking to clients about that it was training about $90.91 a barrel. I think even if you get a resolution all this this might drop back to 80 bucks a barrel. But if this really presses forward to the timeline that we're hearing from Rubio and some of the others and some of the whispers in what's starting to kind of close in on us through April that contracts probably going to $150 a barrel. So you have $60 of upside and $10 of downside that's a very good hedge everything's getting driven by the crude oil market. So that's what we're doing right now and then really quickly it based on what we were talking about earlier where you started to see a little bit of the response and buying at the short end in terms of treasuries. You know we'll bond start to do their job here as defense.

35:16I think so I don't think it's realistic like right now we have about a half a fed hike priced in the market and it doesn't make any sense to me. I think gold is going to be the first to move and because really gold sells off why is gold sell off is because the fed relative to the economic reality is tightening. So the fed is not cutting anymore the economic reality is actually tightener with the oil market roll price rising. So to me I think bonds are going to start getting a bit here. Yeah for sure. Hey Warren I really appreciate it. Have a good weekend Warren. Thank you. All right Apple the only max seven stock to end in the green this week up next we'll hear from an analyst who thinks Apple is a safe haven during this ongoing market turmoil. And as we head to a break here's a look at some notable names hitting fifty two week lows and include Nike trading at its lowest level in nearly nine years as well as visa door dash Lulu lemon and dominance. Welcome back to overtime crew stocks hitting rough waters today carnival beating first quarter earnings estimates but cutting its full year guidance because of higher fuel costs as a result of the war in Iran.

36:20Well Caribbean Norwegian and Viking all falling in sympathy all of them down between four and seven percent. So as investors seek out some relief amid this market volatility they may be turning to Apple. It's the only max seven name closing higher on the week snapping a four week losing streak and it's the best performing max seven name this year. So is this a place to hide in the tech space joining me now is Mark Newman from Bernstein markets good to see you and this happens from time to time. Absolutely kind of wins the status as a bit of a haven here the balance sheet of course it's not a huge capex vendor steady almost consumer staple type profile. You think that makes sense here and I guess there are other reasons that you're recommending it. Yeah I mean it's it's a stable more defensive name and part of the reason for that really is they never had this big upside from the A.I. boom that some of the other max seven have had and so when you hear about and hear about there's this fears of the A.I.

37:22Bible bursting Apple tends to do pretty well on those days. It's very much much more insulated from these A.I. fears and I think similarly just due to its valuation it's constant EPS growth and three cash flow growth and stability can constantly compound its EPS cash flow is generally a pretty safe haven when you're seeing fears in the market like we are today. So you know we like it we think actually it's not that expensive anymore. People thought about it being expensive on our numbers is 24 times FY 27 earnings so actually doesn't look that expensive anymore. And then there's a I guess a line of thinking that you know whatever consumer AI becomes it's going to be delivered through devices like like iPhones and you know maybe some enthusiasm about it being away you know the gateway to Google in that respect so does that filter into your expectations for iPhone performance.

38:23Yeah it does I mean I think for what's remarkable is is rumored that they're spending a billion dollars a year to get access to the Google Gemini model. They're only spending 14 billion dollars a year in capex and yet how much is Google spending on capex as over a hundred billion dollars so they're spending is much more much more frugal they're essentially getting we think a bargain for access to the latest and greatest models and we think they're going to be able to monetize that. So it really truly is a gateway to 1.5 billion of the most lucrative customers on earth which is why I think Google has given them this pretty sweet deal. And so we think they can monetize it in terms of acceleration of replacement rate for phones but also on the services so we see a lot of upside from AI as well. And then I know you had some thoughts about it's pricing strategy or creating some lower price products on the you know the laptop as well as the phone side as a way of maybe defending some market share.

39:33Yeah I think what you can see from the launch week which was a couple weeks ago right now is there being very aggressive on the low end price points. So the 17 E they're sticking to the 599 which the lowest price point they've had they've got they've got despite rising prices rising costs of memory plus in the high end they're going higher they're going higher. So Macbook Neo also in the low end very surprisingly low 599 price point but the high end prices going even higher. So I think what they're doing is they're trying to be more aggressive in the more mainstream market to go over get some share get some volume share where their competitors are going to be struggling to compete because a lot of their customers do not have access to the memory supply that Apple has. And so they're going to be short Apple has plenty and then at the same time try to protect margins by increasing prices at the high end.

40:37So I think it's going to help them I think gain share which should be long term beneficial for the services business as well. Yeah interesting so pressing that advantage Mark Newman Bernstein appreciate the time today. Thank you. Thanks very much. The S&P 500 is now on a 5 week losing streak up next a long time market strategist weighs in on whether a comeback could be in the cards for Wall Street. Welcome back to overtime the S&P 500 down 2% on the week and down 7% since the Iran War began down 9% from its peak earlier this year. So we expect this downturn to continue as we head into a shortened trading week next week joining me now is Bob Dahl from Cross Mark Global Investments Bob. It's great to see you. We've seen a lot of these over the years this is the you know if we get on 10% in the S&P it's the 4 out of 5 years you've had a 10 to 20% decline. How does this one look and feel to you in terms of whether we can expect it to end soon. Well happy Friday Mike the answer that question I think is a lot to do with how long will oil be near $100 a barrel how long with a straight be closed.

41:43If we can get past that we can go back to G before the war the US and global economy was doing just fine thank you. Yeah we saw a little weakness here and there but the underlying economy pretty good this thing has to end soon before we do damage to that if we do damage. Then it's going to be hard to salvage an up year my friend. Yeah we've been talking about the mixed signals and just the tricky aspect of how markets are supposed to look at the interplay between inflationary threats what it means for growth. Bomb market has sort of been confused maybe there was a turn to pricing in more of a growth risk right now how does that shake out for you. Okay I think the back to what I said if it ends soon growth will be okay but the worry has to be inflation we got a PPI numbers you know recording information before the war started was not good at all now you add this to an underlying inflation is concerning around the current inflation numbers they don't round down to two they round up to four.

42:48And that's not tolerable the yield curves fed fund futures curves and other short term curves had a cut priced in not that many weeks ago and now lots of curves say maybe the next moves up I sure hope that's not the case but we're not going to get a lot of relief and that's going to bother people. Yes you know we can sort of take some comfort as prices come down in theory fundamental risk comes down as well right we valuations get compression go back in time here we've had great earnings growth projected good earnings and yet we're back on yes and Peter prices we first got to back in the summer of last year what does that tell you to do if anything with the poor. So it tells you that if and when this war ends the fact of the stock markets down 9% from its high but the PE is down 16% yes because the price drop but also because earnings estimates are moving up look we still have if I want to be a bull we still have a monetary set of tailwinds fiscal tailwinds productivity tailwinds and that's why estimates are still double digit percentage gain.

43:58This year look I think a lot of analysts are waiting for first quarter earnings and management comments to figure out what do I need to do with my estimates so estimate changes of late have all been to the upside for the energy sector. Most other things are just sitting there so earnings are going to absolutely key another reason we got to end this thing soon. And what about bonds I mean right now for talking about you know 4.4 there about on on 10s. Yeah I think the fact that inflations become a bit of a problem makes the bond bulls have to come up with another story come into the year we expected the 10 year to oscillate between the high threes and the low and the mid fours of course we're bumping up against that now but that was when inflation was pretty benign so I'm not sure the bond markets are great by here. All right yeah a lot of people not sure especially at the long end we did see some looseness in trading this week in terms of longer term treasuries Bob doll really appreciated thanks very much.

45:00As mentioned we do have a four day trading week next week on good Friday when the stock markets close we're also going to get a non foreign payroll support it's going to be plenty to contend with as we see if the market can find some footing after a very week five week stretch that does it for overtime. Snoring, gasping during sleep, feeling fatigued, wake up to Zetbound to Zetbound. The first and only FDA approved prescription medicine for moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea OSA and adults with obesity. Zetbound is an injectable prescription medicine that may help adults with moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea OSA and obesity to improve their OSA. Zetbound should be used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity. Zetbound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5 or 15 milligram injection. Zetbound contains tersepatite and should not be used with other tersepatite containing products or any GLP1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if Zetbound is safe and effective for use in children. Do not share needles or pens or reuse needles. Don't take Zetbound if allergic to it or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2.

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