Closing Bell: 9/4/26

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1:00All right, guys. Thanks so much. Welcome to Closing Belps. Scott, while real life of post-night here at the New York Stock Exchange, this make-up breakout begins with the debate over stocks. We're going to ask our experts over this final stretch, where they see the markets heading in the weeks ahead with some really critical inflation data and that Fed meeting looming in those weeks ahead. Here's the scorecard today with 60 to go in the week, the Russell's green. Everything else is red, better than expected jobs report. Well, it at least has yields back in focus and we're watching the curve yet again today. It is now green all across its short end, long end, all green. We're also watching Meta. We're watching Invidia and Apple. Pretty nice weeks, though. Apple's now turned negative today. It's been a decent week. Invidia, this doesn't really give you the week, but trust me, it's been good. Some pretty good strength in the semis, too. Software, a little bit mixed, and that's been a great story to follow, but there is a pretty good picture about how we're going to end this week. Does take us to our talk to the tape, whether the bull case is still strong.

2:01Let's ask Jeremy Siegel. He's the Wharton School Professor of Finance, Wisdom Trees, Chief Economist. It's good to have you back, as always. Okay, so the jobs report was better than expected. We're in a historically rough month. How do you see things today? Well, I thought it was a very good jobs report and a non-inflationary jobs report, because actually there were more people that actually entered the labor force than actually were employed. The unemployment rate, when you didn't round it, actually went up a little bit, which means this was a supply response, not too much demand. The unemployment rate is completely under control. I thought this was a great report. Now, I know the probability of an increase went up a little bit, and I'll tell you, in September, this is a real live meeting for Kevin.

3:03I would say, if the midterm elections were not on the horizon, the Fed would raise rates. But I mean, my God, I mean, Trump's tweak today. Not only do you say, keep them the same. He said, if you don't lower them, I'm going to start raising tariffs across the board on all these countries. That's crazy. I don't think that he is not going to be under political pressure in the next two Fed meetings. Oh, I don't think there's any question about that. But if he did hike rates, like you say, there's a possibility he would, as I said earlier this afternoon, the roof would blow off of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And you know that would be the case. But you don't actually think they're going to raise rates, do you? I mean, the data tells me there is room for some interest rate increases.

4:07If he delays them until after the election, so until December, is that going to be a tragedy for the economy? Now, clearly, if things got really heated, if inflation continues to rise, and I mean, Iran is a wild card, and they may decide to step up their missile attacks before that, and send oil higher, and that sends bond high. The bond market might tip Warch's hand saying, listen, you know, there's telling me, I've got to make a move to get that inflation under control. And by the way, I think a strong move by the Fed might actually lower long term rates by saying, hey, with the credibility of the Fed is on the line, and we are going to add. But hey, he may try to convince Trump of that. I don't think Trump is going to be on board with that reasoning. Good luck with that, right? Let's just say, for the sake of the conversation professor that they raise rates in September.

5:13What would the market do? I think the market would originally have a negative reaction, but then a positive reaction because they're happy that the Fed is stepping up to get those rates under control. Again, let's hoping that the roof stays on, I'm Pennsylvania Avenue, and we don't get a big increase in tariffs. Assuming that that stays under control. Because ultimately, the credibility of the central bank to fight inflation is there. Now, again, we have, don't forget, next week, Wednesday we have the PPI, and we have that very important CPI, but we know what we're doing to that line in the hand about whether it's going to be 0.2 or 0.3. So, I mean, there's still data that's very important that has to be developed. But if you take a look at the futures markets along the two-year, and by the way, as you know, I look at the money supply, something that Kevin Warchen fact mentioned in his Jackson call has been important.

6:16Since the Iran War began, the M2 money supply has been growing at 10% annual rate, which is excessive. And to me, that does, in fact, say, he's going to start raising those rates. Listen, markets like a little looseness, stocks are much better under inflation than bonds, because they're real assets, so in a way, stocks like at a little bit looser, but ultimately, we're all gaining as a society and as an economy, if we could keep that inflation under control. Sure, but you could make the argument that rates are doing the Fed's job for it. So, why should they hike? What could they possibly do about oil prices? Nothing. What could they possibly do about AI build out, financing? Nothing. So, then, why should they hike? Well, don't forget, there are 10 to 15 trillion dollars worth of short-term loans

7:17that are directly and almost exactly tied to that Fed funds rate. You're actually right, on the long end, long bonds, 30-year mortars, that's long end. But there are trillions of dollars of money from credit card rates, auto loan, factoring rates, short-term borrowings, commercial paper and all that, that's really tied to the Fed. So, you know, if the Fed does raise those rates, that pulls back a little bit on that borrowing, creates a situation with less credit creation, which ultimately is less inflation. So, I say, I really believe that the Fed is still very important for inflation and they control the short end 100%, and what they do there still matters a lot for the economy. So, we have the mid-term looming, we have a couple of Fed meetings before that, we have all the focus on the bond market, the AI earnings were just really good. So, the market, the S&Ps at 7700, knowing all that lies ahead, and the war, by the way,

8:21of course, as you rightly mentioned, still unsettled. How does the runway ahead look for the stock market over the next few months, do you think? Wow, you know, this is one of the most difficult times. I see it's a balancing at greater earnings, you know, I mean, you know what, Nvidia, really, I think, turned it around. You were talking with Mike Santoli earlier about how the AI Mag 7 has come back, and I think that Nvidia was part of that. Nvidia's link with Salesforce also gave confidence to that sector's a lot of great things going on. I mean, you know, we could talk about the AI buildout. My feeling is, once the elections are over, there's so much money around that we're going to get those data centers actually built. Despite the opposition, there's just too much money, that's too attractive to do many localities, that they can, you know, settle on some sort of deal.

9:21So, I think that, you know, that AI trade and AI is an industrial revolution, is certainly still there. But then, you know, the midterms, Iran, oil, you know, how, you know, what's going to happen on that front is what's keeping the market, I think, pretty much in a, hey, wait and see mode. Yeah, it seems that way. We'll talk to you soon. Professor, great long weekend. Thank you as always. Thank you very much, Scott. You too. All right, Jeremy Siegel. Of course, the professor just mentioned Mike Santoli in this conversation that he and I had earlier today, when he flagged the fact that the Mag Seven's back. And if you look at what's happened over the last six months as he did, it's a really good observation, Mike, that you made. It set us up for a robust conversation at noon, because you can see in June, July, how they, you know, diverged from one another, the Mag Seven and the S&P 500.

10:22But tell us more, why you focused on this this morning the way you did. Mostly because, Scott, it felt as if the leadership of large stocks, and obviously, Mag Seven, the largest, has reasserted itself as macro flux has increased. And as I think you had a crescendo of concern about capital spending that really came together in June and July. That is sort of relieved. The storyline I hear solidifying a little bit is, look, whatever we're going to do about spending in the future, we've probably seen the peak year on year growth rate of capital intensity for these businesses. They're still growing. They got cheaper. Okay, Mag Seven, it's a group went from 34 times forward earnings in October, late October of last year, to about 23 times at the lows this past summer, about a month or two ago. And that was just enough. And you kind of reached a little bit of a level where it felt as if they had been de-risk based on value. They also served as anti-momentum. They were not participating in the upside of the momentum trade. The momentum unwind actually flattered their steadiness.

11:24And so we have that all working. Now, of course, you know, the group got a percent and a half today. It's not going to be a one-way street. And I think the key to is, there's massive divergence within the Mag Seven. So you look at Apple and Nvidia to the upside over that six-month period. You have Meta and Tesla really weak. So I don't think it's necessarily a matter of this is now the group that's going to be the locomotive for the market exclusively from here. But it shows you they do have defensive properties and they can only go down so much. It's interesting you mentioned the relationship between the Mags and momentum. And that we just learned today that they're now negatively correlated. The Mags are with momentum for the very first time ever. What does that tell us now? It's fascinating. I think a lot of it is Apple. Apple is like the one stock stabilizer against the momentum trade, against semis. It's almost been this kind of binary out there. Now, of course, Apple giving a little bit up today. That's a big piece of it. And also funny enough, Nvidia has not traded really beat for beat like a semiconductor, like the memory stocks, like the higher leverage ones.

12:27It's traded more like a hyperscaler platform. And I think that's part of the answer as to why those things have worked a little better. Plus, you can't ignore Microsoft just riding this relief rally in software. And that's added a lot of half to the Mags ever trade. Oh, man. It's up 30% that name is from its earnings period until now. And you can almost say that Microsoft's drink from its earnings and then Nvidia's drink from its earnings helps to make the case that you're showing us. Why we've witnessed what we've witnessed because earnings were a catalyst that we weren't sure what was what was going to happen. So I appreciate it much. We'll see you later in the zone. As always, that's Mike Santoli, given us something really good to think about today. We're getting some news out of Washington. Megan Kasella joins us now with that. What are we learning here, Megan? Scott, we just heard from President Trump in the Oval Office. He was signing a pair of executive orders related to the beef industry, one of which would allow ranchers to process their own beef, another of which would change. What's called country of origin labeling both of these designed to help farmers and ranchers and possibly to bring down the price of beef in the United States. We'll see how that plays out.

13:34But he also took a number of questions we heard from him on a number of different topics on the Iran War first up. He was asked about Vice President Vance's comments yesterday that he would not call this a war. And the president agreed with his vice president. He said, quote, a lot of people don't call it a war. I call it a military conflict because it's small potatoes for us. It's not a big thing. And he was pushed on this a little bit saying, Mr. President, 18 people, 18 Americans have died in this conflict. And he pushed back on that saying many more died in Vietnam. He said that what matters is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. Of course, though, there is still no agreement, no nuclear agreement with Iran on that point. Now, he was also speaking about trade and trade deficits. And he really doubled down on or defended his threat from earlier today on Truth Social when he warned the Federal Reserve, it seemed that unless they cut interest rates, he's looking to cut off all trade with countries with which the US runs a trade deficit. Now, Scott, that is most of the United States major trading partners. And he really elaborated on this. He was saying we have the right to cut off trade with them that it wouldn't hurt in his view.

14:36The United States economy, he says if we don't trade with them, they don't have any money to pay the bills. And if we're not going to be treated properly, then we're going to do that. Many economists, most economists, I should say, do not view the trade deficit as a negative thing for the US economy, but hear the President threatening to cut off all trade with a number of our major trading partners unless he sees lower interest rates. And then finally, Scott just one small comment on the bond market. He was pressed by a reporter who said a rate hike would reassure the bond market. And the President responded to me, it doesn't reassure the bond market. To me, you should see a rate cut. We should have the lowest interest rate in the world. Scott. All right, Megan, thanks, Megan Kasele. Let's bring in our panel now, Schwab's Kevin Gordon, CNBC contributor requisite capitals for in talking. It's good to have you both with us today, Kevin. I'll start with you since you're sitting here next to me. I want to start with where we left off with Mike Zantoli. What's the resurgence, reemergence of this critically important trade, what do you think it means? Well, I think the most important start that came up when Mike was speaking was the divergence among the members in the X-7. And the fact tied into what you were really focusing on, which is now this negative correlation with momentum, and the fact that these names have really started to trade in a very different way.

15:47I've tended to group them now into a basket of hyperscalers and memory and semi-conductors, because that seems to be where things have sort of shifted in terms of themes. So if you take the Mag-7 as a group, I think one of the reasons that it's been so much of a struggle so far this year is because you've seen that massive divergence. You know, Metta and Tesla, really holding it down on the bottom of the list, and then you've got the likes of Nvidia still doing relatively well also, Apple and Microsoft more recently. I think that from an investor's perspective, not necessarily thinking about it as a monolith anymore is going to be really key moving forward, especially because now you're even starting to see the biggest names, and I'm not an individual company analyst, but just looking at the biggest one being Nvidia, even its contribution rank in the S&P 500 to performance has slipped to third place. So even now you're starting to see that contribution rank and performance sort of seed leadership to other areas like Micron, for example. But if this is a reemergence sprint, what does it mean for a month that's historically unkind to investors? This is theoretically happening at a very critically important time.

16:58Right, I mean, it's not just this month, it's really now between now and midterms and Scott had to go back to 1962. I think we've had what 16 or 17 midterms every single time between now and the midterms, we've had a drawdown between like 7 and 25%. So just like probability based investors, I would think that we would have another drawdown. This would be the first time we haven't had one since 1962. I think investors should expect some temporary volatility. And so I think that this mean reversion, I would call it with most of the mag 7 minus, minus meta, really, and Tesla. I think it probably is going to take a rest here because I do think that midterm drawdown is going to start anchoring on the market, you know, throwing Iran, the Fed, etc. If we're kind of setting up to have a breather, some drawdown before we then go into seasonality where from November to February, market particularly up quite nicely.

17:59Okay, if you think we're going to have increased volatility between now and November. I do. I think that especially at the index level because you haven't seen as much of it this year, a lot of it has just been this more considerable churn and rotation under the surface. I do think that that's increased likelihood, maybe solely because of the inflation backdrop. If you do get a hotter set of prints for CPI and PPI, that probably locks in a rate hike for September. Probably have some volatility associated with it. I do think the markets get gotten increasingly comfortable with the fact that the Fed might tighten and the likelihood is a little bit higher. But at the same time, you know, if there's a signal, especially that you get a couple of hikes or you start to embark on a hiking cycle to the extent you get any of that from other members, not necessarily the chair. I do think that probably introduces a little bit of a rupture. Do you really think that there could be a hike? I mean, that matters. Do you really think that there could be in September? Absolutely. I think that- And with the market would stand that? Over the long term, if it's a hiking cycle in the context of an economy that continues to grow, yes. I realize that there could be, you know, at times hiking cycles that are not necessarily consistent with recessions.

19:07So the most recent one that was the case, and you did have a bear market. So I don't want to bring that kind of volatility completely off the table. But at the same time, historically, when the economy is growing, when the head of the Fed is not hiking aggressively every single month, it's not necessarily been a poor setup for the equity market. So I think that it's going to take a six to 12 month look outward. So I do think that it's still a possibility you get some kind of correction, but maybe not something as sinister as if they were hiking aggressively and sending the economy into a recession. Let's just say, Brin, it happens. They hike 25 basis points in September. What does the market do? Oh, the market goes down. First of all, this is what happened in the late 90s. Right? They hiked as the economy was- This is like what birth the bubble back in in 99 2000. And they started hiking actually into a week in an economy. And so I don't think they're going to hike. I think if they do hike, they don't just do one hike. They go into a hiking schedule. And I think I've always said, don't fight the Fed. So Kevin Wars, which I don't think he will hike rates. I mean, Trump just put him in there. That would just be though ironic that they start raising rates.

20:15But the market would go down because that would signal a hiking cycle. And I will say, what to your point, your comment with Professor Siegel earlier, what can the Fed do to actually do anything on inflation, which when nothing in the Fed's toolbox is causing inflation. We don't have these like great loan gross within housing and in commercial real estate. That's just going to hurt the real economy while the other inflationary pressures have nothing to do with what the Fed's toolbox consists of. That's why the concern would be a mistake, the Fed mistakes. You couldn't do anything affecting what's actually part of the issue or a major part of the issue, but you could harm things on the periphery that you don't want to do. But let me ask you this, Kevin. The backup in rates. That in and of itself, is that a problem for stocks? In level terms, not necessarily. I think it's because it's been a little bit more orderly this time and you haven't gone through a significant sharp increase in a shorter time frame. Historically, that's been what's been more disruptive for the equity market.

21:20So I do think that for some reason, if you get a hot inflation print and you don't have a Fed that necessarily responds to that, that's where I think you could see more of a rupture at the long end like you did back in back in July. Although that was more about messaging from the PES conference, but still, if that is the backdrop and you get a sharper increase in yields and a shorter time frame, that's typically what's been more of a sinister scenario for the stock market. Folks, we'll leave it there. Have a great long weekend. Brynn, we'll see you soon. Kev, we'll see you back here in post-dine. Let's send it now to Christina Ports and Neville, though. She's looking at the biggest names moving into this Friday clothes. What do you see? We're going to start with Tesla because those shares are something after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration launched a probe into the cybercab to just make sure it met federal safety standards. This follows Tesla's much anticipated cybercab event that happened last night. The move essentially wiping out yesterday's gains shares down almost 6%. Speaking of down, shares of blue women really tanking almost 18% after reported a sales slowdown and also cut its full year outlook. The performance was really dragged down by negative social media sentiment and just weakness in key categories like leggings, not as trendy anymore. It's a challenging backdrop, though, for the company's new CEO who will take over on Tuesday's stock hitting its lowest level since 2018.

22:33Dovey shares also dropping on an executive shakeup the company naming its customer experience president as CEO after its former CEO of 18 years, Shantanu Narayan, said he would step down just last month. Narayan will become executive chair during the transition shares down 6%. Okay, Christina, we'll see you soon. Thanks, Christina Ports and Neville, we're just getting started up next. The AI arms race colliding with the data center revolt best selling author and leading technology thought leader Walter Isaacson weighs in on that growing backlash, whether it could quit America's AI boom at risk or live at the New York Stock Exchange. He joins us next. I'm Galen, co-founder of Brooklyn Solar Works. With my chase ink business premier card, I get unlimited 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more, which helps us donate solar panels to community gardens.

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24:59I'd like to get your overall take on the issue for starters as it really feels like Walter that opposition is only growing louder and the stories we're reading continue to be out there multiple times it feels like every day. I've got at least 71% in a March survey of respondents against data center construction. Seems everybody is writing about it and thinking about it and talking about it. What's your take on it? I think the backlash against data centers is very real but it's a proxy for a backlash against AI and the discomfort with AI. I mean the data centers are necessarily the problem an average data center uses about as much water as an average golf course but people don't go fighting golf courses. I think what there is is a discomfort with AI and how it's not actually serving humanity as much as it was supposed to at least in people's mind. Now in a lot of ways it is. I've just read my favorite technology newsletter, Fix the News and there was a story about how AI is helping to remove brain tumors.

26:08But most of the time you're reading about how it's destroying jobs for young people entry level jobs. You know Secretary Besant his comments this week from the G20 I thought were really interesting where he put the blame on big tech itself. Let's listen and we can react on the other side of that. I think that the AI companies whether it is the builders of the data centers whether it is the labs themselves have done a horrendous job of explaining themselves to the American people. And I think we need a big reset on this. They're going to have to take some of the blame and they are going to have to convince the American people that all the benefits will not accrue to a small group. So that was the Secretary in the industry. It appears to be taking some blame as Sam Altman said during an interview yesterday and I quote I think the industry has done a terrible job of this on the whole. Do you agree?

27:10100% first of all there are things like if you want to talk to Sam Altman there's that escape that chat GPT open a eyes bot did when it did hugging face. Now they've got a new model coming out that they basically say we don't know if we can control it. If you read the report about the various agents created by the chat GPT that escape. They're conspiring against humans and nobody saying hey let's stop it. Secondly they're not doing a very good job of focusing AI on things that could truly help us. How to fold proteins to make us to cure cancer or to help us with vaccines. How to deal with climate change. So there are all of these things that I think are on the AI companies the big tech companies. They're just showing them making things that they can't control things that aren't particularly helpful to us. And then as the Secretary of the Treasury rightly said the huge benefits and the money from this will accrue to five or six companies and people say well that'll make it so that we'll never have to work again.

28:23Everybody will have universal income. No that doesn't just happen automatically they're the ones who are going to be taking these profits. The reason that the administration itself is having trouble messaging on this too. I mean the president earlier this week goes after the communities who don't want them suggesting the only reason that communities throughout the USA should not want data centers if they want to end up being backwards or poor he wrote. And then I want you to listen to the Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik on our network mid week on Squawk Box. Let's listen. Data centers don't use what are the data centers. This is propaganda by our adversaries to try to slow us down. The problem Walter with that statement is that it's obviously it's just not true and it contradicts Mr. Lutnik himself from what he said last year quote these AI think suck water they need water in fact the Florida water and pollution control operators association they did a study in which they found a medium sized data center required to be a good example.

29:28This data center requires roughly 100 million gallons of water annually annually so there's there's a messaging problem it seems everywhere. Well yeah but as I said I don't think this is really about water use I mean I think that can be a problem especially in many places where they're clustered but I think the real problem is AI company saying we're making things that are totally out of control. We don't know how to control them we don't have any guard rails and we're not going to put in the end necessarily and we're going to make a whole lot of profits off of this and it's going to destroy jobs and it may be the AI apocalypse of course people are going to be reacting against it people were booing mentions of AI not just mentions of data center in speeches and so you're seeing Republicans whether it be you know in Ohio or even in Texas now. You know the governor Texas and maybe we got a pull back on data centers I think that's really a proxy for saying this AI thing we're not sure how to control it but there is a real problem and it is that if we pull back China will keep pushing ahead sometimes.

30:37I'm sorry for finish your thought I apologize Walter no I mean sometimes it's a problem because if you pull back and you ask you're going to have China pulling ahead there's not an easy answer here. What's it going to take to reverse the tide and do you think that big tech can convince wary communities around this country that AI is not going to steal jobs it's going to create jobs that your electric costs are not going to go up and all the benefits that you said of what the prospects are for healthcare innovation and the light Gavin Baker who's a well-known name in the world of tech. Big post on social media this week with the virtues of of data centers and how how maybe the conversation has changed over the last 18 months for the better about what they'll bring and the virtues of them Jensen Wong retweeting that and adding his own can they change the conversation. I think they're going to have to show that AI is aligned with the values of humanity and will be good for humans one of the deeper problems is that the AI models are creating agents that act without being tethered without being linked directly to human agency to human values this is not the way the personal computer revolution was personal computer revolution Steve jobs Doug Engelbart it linked us to a lot of people.

31:58We're all computers so our computers became a tool I think what you're seeing with the AI revolution is they're creating agents that start in the fright and all of us and that makes the backlash against not only data centers but AI. Walter appreciated as always you enjoy the lot weekend as well see you soon Walter Isaacson coming up big shake up at the top of the WNBA commissioner Kathy Engelberg stepping down after seven years at the helm we'll talk about why now and what we're going to do. Walter exit means for the leaks next chapter next. Watching football is a sacred tradition and sling puts you in charge of how you want to watch it. Whether you want a quick day pass for nonstop college or pro action starting at just $4.99 a three day or seven day pass for game packed weekends a full monthly plan or a full season pass sling gives you total control over how you watch.

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34:05News today that the WNBA commissioner Kathy Engelbert will retire at the end of the year ending a tumultuous last stretch as leader of that league. Cmbc sports reporter Alex Sherman joins us now with more would you make this announcement today. Yes Scott I would not classify it as a surprise we didn't know exactly when the date would come but I and other reporters have asked Kathy about potential retirement or succession for well over a year now and every time she's answered you know I'm 60 61 years old I'm not going to do this job forever. It was never my intention to serve forever so like the suggestion was there that retirement or her stepping down was coming of course the big hurdle was the WNBA's collective bargaining agreement and that is something that before the beginning of this season she got done and in many ways I think will stand as her biggest legacy where she was able to get a deal done with the players. It was not an easy deal and I think it led to some lasting tensions between Kathy and players of the WNBA which will be sort of the other side of her legacy but if you take a look at kind of the bare bones stats WNBA players make or right now make a lot more money than they used to make all of sort of the statistics around the league are very much up into the right take a look there viewership up more than 450% attendance up 70% the valuations of these.

35:33These teams have skyrocketed during her reign as commissioner I mean all you need to do is look back to like 2021 the Las Vegas aces sold for $2 million in 2021 CNBC sport values the aces at $500 million five years later there's even a billion dollar value WNBA team the Golden State Balkares now so it's hard not to see her 10 year as a success from that standpoint really it's the player relaying the game. The relationship standpoint where I think you can where you can kind of ding her she has struggled particularly with some of these star players in the league to foster a close relationship and I think that maybe the next commissioner that will be a high priority on that person's list. So it's undeniable as you say of how she helped transform that league from a growth standpoint a financial gain standpoint but it's also undeniable that the way that the conversation has been lately it's all been about social turmoil within that league and there are those who are going to say she owns that as well.

36:45Yeah and you know in many ways I think the job changed for commissioner right the priority was to get that CBA done she did it but in the process of that I think she angered a lot of the players the players feeling like she was really not their mouthpiece and after that deal got done now the problems for the league have sort of shifted it's very much kind of a cultural political boiling point the transgender issues the racial issues the gender is the sexuality issues like they're all kind of bubbling there. And over it all I think is how the league deals with Caitlin Clark it's biggest star by all viewership standpoints other players in the league have hard followed her and have kind of given her a hard time there was that all star vote or the players voted her as the 11th best guard in the league whereas you know fans voted her as like number two. So there's clearly a divide there and again I think a commissioner that's coming in will likely prioritize a relationship with Caitlin Clark and a relationship with the leagues other stars so that all of the players in the league can kind of get their ores rowing in the same direction so that the brand of the WNBA stays unified in these years to come.

37:57Alex thanks talk to you soon Alex Sherman up next the biggest movers as we head into this close Christina is back with that high. Well we have a credit score Scott talk sliding as Washington targets what it calls a scoring monopoly a theater chain rallying after ripping a brokerage over a quasi fake market and to software names falling despite pretty strong results details next. And the bell let's get back now to Christina parts of novellas for a look at the stocks that she's watching what do you see. Smiling but shares of credit bureaus falling after housing director Bill Potsy said he's directing fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to approve all lenders to use vintage score saying FICO has just had a monopoly. He also posted on x that aquifax experience trans user union have been quote overcharging Americans for far too long that's why you can see even FICO down almost 16%. AMC shares gaining after it slammed Robinhood for launching a tokenized version of AMC shares CEO Adam Aaron calling it outrageous and saying that Robinhood is creating a quote quasi fake market as it leans into round the clock stock trading.

39:08And to software stocks thinking despite strong results guide where software dropping as its first quarter revenue guidance missed estimates and you I path initially dropped as much as 10%. You can see it's down about 17% right now drop 10% yesterday 17% today before heading in the opposite direction is can accord genuity downgraded the stock and I should say it was up yesterday down today now I got it. All you need to know selling off for these big two minutes. We got it. Thank you very much. Christina parts and effort coming up Apple slumping today ahead of next week's big iPhone event we're breaking down what to watch for what it might mean for that stock inside the markets and which is coming up. We're now in the closing bell markets on Mike Santoli and on Capitol Shunali Bastic here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. All of a run of course standing by live from Sevo global markets in Chicago will play options action in a moment. The candy see galas watching Apple of course and looking ahead to that big event next week Michael begin with you leave us with a thought on what you saw this week and what you think it means for next.

40:15Sure I mean it's basically a push at the index level the S&P 500 is flat as we did test some sort of minor support at the lower end of the range. We passed that test I don't I do think that the market did kind of go by a few decent excuses to give up a little more ground obviously oil and yields pressing higher so that's a net positive. There's no flashing yellow lights on that level you do actually have those some pressure emerging still in consumer cyclicals in industrial so those cyclical rate sensitive areas. I do think there's plenty for the market to get 10 with when everyone comes back after Labor Day obviously we have a coin flip fed meeting at this point right ahead of us we're not quite sure if we're going to make our peace with yield levels here we have the VIX at 14 and it makes all the sense in the world it's been a very calm index for months now and we obviously have a three day weekend ahead but it does show you that there's room for for a little bit more of turbulence and testing and rethinking of the scenario going out from here.

41:15The trend is fine but maybe it gets interesting along the way well this inflation data now looming especially large next week so we have to watch for that we'll watch for you in less than five in overtime and look forward to that Michael thank you Oliver let's play some options action what he focused on. I'm watching for the possible re awakening of a sleeping giant that is DRAM Scott the memory stock ETF has been quietly range bound now for two months but it's 5% rally stands out today and so do its options which is a great deal. We've been leading quite bullish now six percent about three times as many calls were bought versus puts today and the big money trades were also mostly in calls today's most popular trade for next week was to buy the 61 strike call that's about a $1 trade that needs an almost 5% rally to work. Interestingly one of the most bearish trades was a seller of 5,105 strike calls expiring year in that brought in almost $300,000 but if the biggest the value you have to worry about is someone betting against a 78% rally that is a pretty bullish place to be and the ETF jumping is a nice cherry on top of this week Scott.

42:25Oliver appreciate you as always Oliver Renek will turn to Mac now in Apple which was having a pretty good week up until today. Up until today down more than 2% next week's highly anticipated iPhone event Scott is really the first big test for John turners as Apple CEO he's walking on to that stage with a lot riding on whether the company can extend the iPhone upgrade cycle and with expectations really sky high for apples first foldable and a major pricing reset now that new folding models expect to start at about $2,400 more than Stanley thinks Apple could ship about 6.5 million of them and the December quarter alone generating 14 billion in revenues so this can be financially financially meaningful even at relatively low volumes and then there is pricing pro models could go up by $200 or more but that may be less about flexing pricing power more just about protecting margins against much higher memory costs and for the stock. Morgan Stanley actually expects the typical cell the news reaction on launch day the more consequential test is what happens after that whether this launch is strong enough to drive earnings estimates higher with Apple already trading about 30 times earnings.

43:36Scott I'm going to be a big week there's no doubt about that Mac thanks so much you'll be right in the middle of it that's Mackenzie Cigal's should not be about to be sitting next to me here okay we got a lot ahead of us right how do you feel about these markets now. A lot ahead of us I think that there's a lot of uncertainty until we get past CPI and then to that FOMC right because I would agree that you have a coin flip kind of probability here in terms of whether they raise rates next or not and more likely that it could be later this year and so until we see that higher based rate we don't know what the cost of financing kind of looks like a cost across the spectrum therefore you don't really know what risk appetite looks across the spectrum. Mike Stentoli you know throughout the day today has been talking with me about the resurgence and the reemergence of mega cap tech that's meaningful especially maybe more so at a time when you have some of these unanswered questions about the macro. Yeah you know mega cap is interesting I think a lot of people looked at the hyperscalers raising a lot of money but there's that saying that you don't need to raise money when you need to raise money you raise money when you can raise money and it was smart for them to do that before you saw a rate starting to rise a little more.

44:41And you hear that crowding out arguments starting before right this idea of investors looking to hyperscaler debt instead of the treasury market there's been a lot of that going around in fact that's a lot of reasons why people are even still talking about private markets to despite the uncertainty. How much do you think the backup and rates matters to this stock market in an environment let's be honest where earnings are the show and that's the reason why we're not that far off from record highs and the projections are still overwhelmingly positive should that still trump everything else. I don't want to be very clear I think that the direction of travel is still higher from here I think there's a choppy path higher but with that said what happens when rates are higher a flock to quality and there are a lot of areas of the market where you have not seen that flock yet happen even broader financials have not seen a meaningful robust comeback across the board. You know industrials are trading still below it's 100 day moving average how crazy we're seeing so much robust economic activity still underpinning some of this it's why we are talking about higher rates a strong job market and still strong growth. We can all of you as well they're going to ring the bell in a moment and again a much better than expected jobs report rates very much in focus green across the curve finish up here and that's why the market probably looks the way it does that the rush is going to go out positive.

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