How the latest jobs data changes the market calculus 9/4/26

0:00It's NFL kickoff time Wednesday exclusive NFL team valuations from Michael O'Zanian Thursday CNBC sport live from the NFL's first ever game in Australia with Commissioner Roger Gidell starts Wednesday CNBC. The Bell is bringing it into the trading day at the NYSE. Stop soldier suicide bringing the Bell and at the NASDAQ teach for America, New York closing out the week at the NASDAQ downstairs. Welcome to Closing Bell overtime live from Studio B at the NASDAQ market site. Mike Stanton told him, Melissa Lee is off today. Stocks falling after a stronger than expected jobs report, the Dow losing about 280 points, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ composite both lower by about 3 tenths of a percent, the NASDAQ 100 however, with a small game. For the week, it is a split decision. The Dow slightly lower, the S&P 500 basically flat, but the tech heavy NASDAQ indexes did manage some gains. The yield is moving higher following the jobs report, especially on the short end, the

1:00two year yield that levels not seen since early 2025. We have much more on that coming up. Let's begin though with markets as the semis versus soft wear push pull playing out once again today. Christina Parks and Neville is joining me here at the NASDAQ to get into all of it. Yeah, I'll start with just the yields because that affects just tech and generally labor markets, resilience really push treasure yields higher, that pressured stocks, mag seven, pulled back coming off a new record close. Yesterday, led by NVIDIA and Apple and I know you've said it a few times today, Mike. But to your point, the group's dropped enough to look cheap again in video up about 5% maybe back in favor just on this week. Memory trade two also back after an overnight lift specifically in South Korea, SK high nights, you can see closing 8% higher sand is because the DRAM ETF storage names like C gate all closing higher today, soft wear though, the soft spot. In the case when you see chips climbing higher, softer going in the other direction, the IGB pretty much headed for a four and a half percent weekly loss.

2:03It's worse since July, so not that long ago, even after a clean beat from snowflake earlier this week, which lifted the entire group. Today, you got some profit taking, also some weak guidance from guide wear led lower and then UI path slipped as a conical or cut. Actually, they cut it to hold saying that the valuation was just a little too high after a big run. We also had Z scale are falling despite its own clean beat as cautious, full year guidance overshadowed the quarter of Dobie closing lower to there is a leadership shake up there. One person leaving people thought it was going to be this next CEO and I'm going to end on some more negative stocks. Tesla sliding after regulators opened a probe into whether the cyber cab meets federal safety standards following its cyber cab roll out just yesterday, also wiping out yesterday's gains shares down about 6%. But still up on the week. Last but not least, Lulu lemon. Do you wear Lulu? Somehow no. Yeah, okay. So Lulu, tanking a sales slowdown and another cut sent it to its lowest level since 2018, a rough welcome for incoming CEO Heidi O'Neill, who starts on Tuesday shares down 17%

3:06Mike does not wear Lulu. A rough one or an easy entry point. We'll see for a new CEO. I guess we'll have to say, Christina, thank you. This morning's employment report showing a gain of 162,000 jobs, much more than was expected. So how is that going to affect the Fed's plans? Steve Lisman joins us now to get into all of it. Hey, Steve. Hey, thanks very much, Mike. Yeah, the employment report, which is the market thinking about Fed rate hikes, sparking a tweet from the president, essentially threatening tariffs if the Fed doesn't cut rates. The debate is whether today is 162,000 gain in the start of a certain sort of revision to the mean after several months of weakness. The strong numbers you can see there, follow job gains is 21,000 in July and 31,000 in June to 3 month average. Now, 71,000, I would call that healthy, but not necessarily barn burning. Here's some of the data that we're looking at. Leisure and hospitality is up 62,000, but it had lost 75,000 in the prior two months.

4:07Local government education up by 42,000. It had lost 58,000. The last month, healthcare, 28,000, that was good construction and manufacturing up 40,000. Some of that could be an effect of what's happening with the AI build out. Now, futures markets, they modestly increase the probability of a September, high you can see right there up to 57% from 50% for a September and then go to December, it's up to 86% from 51%. Sorry, that's right, 51%. That Trump, meanwhile, took, he threatened tariffs on countries with which the US has a trade deficit if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates. Here's what he said, lower the rate or I'll stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit. The Fed board with its great new leader must get smart, be patriots for a change. Now, countries that have a deficit with the US, well, they usually take their dollars and recycle them back into treasuries which would lower interest rates. So, unclear Mike, how that would help the presidents cause there seeking lower interest

5:11rates. Well, for sure. Yeah, I mean, obviously what it does is it sort of crystallizes some of what we would have expected to be, at least some of the rhetorical pressure on Kevin Worsh. But the thing is, I mean, everyone seems to be on the same page here in terms of inflation is the only thing really we have to be concerned with the job market today. Kind of reaffirmed that if anything. And even 60, 40 or whatever we're at in terms of Fed odds, there's some suspense there ahead of those inflation numbers next week. Yeah, and this may be the new normal, Mike. We may go in with this idea. I think we went in 70, 30 until the last meeting, we may go in 60, 40. The problem I have with all that is that Kevin Worsh wanted to talk less to get a clear signal from the market. Well, what if the market's response is kind of muddy? I mean, how does that help the Fed chair? We're not just not getting the kind of guidance we used to get. We got a little bit more last Friday in Jackson Hole. But I was talking to somebody this morning, or this afternoon, Mike and he said to me,

6:14wouldn't it be ridiculous? Isn't it ridiculous that a Fed rate hike will depend upon whether the CPI comes in at 0.24, which rounds down to 0.26, which rounds up to 0.3. Are we really there? Is that the place where we are right now? One would be hot and one would be OK. Right. I mean, obviously, look, I mean, this would be a turn in policy. The last move was a cut. It always ends up maybe being a little bit of a close call. I guess I always would stand back and say, if it's that much of a close call, maybe we're not necessarily an emergency that we're clearly we have to respond to something. But we'll see if, in fact, you know, the market is really sensitive to whether it's one or the others. We get those numbers next week, Steve. Thanks very much. I want to get more on that trade story from President Trump. Right. Megan Kasella has the details. Megan. Mike, it was a pretty explicit threat from the president saying, lower the rate or else I'll cut off all trade with which the U.S. with countries with which the U.S. is running a deficit.

7:14As you know, Mike, that is most of the U.S. is major trading partners. But the president doubled down on this just in the last hour or so in the Oval Office. Take a listen to some of what he said. If we don't trade with them, they don't have any money to pay the bills. And if we're not going to be treated properly, we're going to do that. And all we have to do to cut our trade deficit with the country is not trade with them. He went on to say, Mike, that he believes the U.S. should have the lowest interest rate in the entire world. Now, a lot to unpack from this. The first being that most economists do not view the trade deficit as a bad thing. They don't view it as bad for the economy. And really, it's a reflection of U.S. consumers having more buying power than consumers overseas. It's viewed as something that makes goods cheaper in the U.S. and around the world. And if we cut all of that off, prices for goods would likely increase. U.S. workers and businesses would have to shift from focus on higher skilled areas and research and services industries, for example, to production to make sure that consumers here did have goods to buy. The president, though, not acknowledging much of that, but making it clear to the Federal

8:17Reserve he wants to and believes he has the power to cut off all trade with most of these major trading partners, unless he sees them lower the rate. Mike. Right. In general, I mean, it's a theme that he hits all the time. He thinks that the U.S. should be rewarded for its good economic performance and maybe not have to share as much of the wealth or pay higher interest rates along the way, Megan. It's tricky to make it all work in terms of the math and the concepts. Thank you very much, Megan Gisella. Following the jobs report, the two-year yield jumped to its highest level since January of 2025. Rick Santelli and Chicago, with more on the Bob Markets reaction, Rick. Rick. Yeah. And you know, the story we're just discussing, there's a lot of hyperbole that comes from the president. And one thing I would point out, I don't want to unpack all of that, but by looking at the markets, by looking at interest rates, they obviously look through these comments. Come on. Now, if we look at 3.1%, look at that chart. That is the lowest average hourly earnings in over five years. It's hard to imagine that a good jobs report, let's look at 162,000 second best job creation

9:22of the year, is a good jobs report necessarily mean that the Fed has to tighten? Well, the knee jerk reaction and Fed fund futures might have pointed to that. However, I'm not sure that I really think it's going to occur. And finally, as you pointed out, Mike, look at 2.10s there. 2s had the much bigger movie. You can see it on the percentages. But this chart, the next one. This is a 2 day chart of Fed fund futures for December. Forget all the numbers. When it goes up, it's making less probabilities of a hike when it goes down. It increases those. Yesterday, Waller came out and it pushed the probabilities down. Today, the jobs numbers come out. It pushes the market down, raising the hike probabilities. But really, it is all about next week in CPI and BPI. Back to you. Have a nice holiday, Mike. You as well, Rick. Thanks so much. Well, after today's upside-surprise from the jobs data, the Fed has only a few data points left before its next rate decision, joining me now. With his take on how the Fed proceeds from here, it's Torson Slocke, he's chief economist at Apollo.

10:24Torson, I mean, it's kind of funny because the debate is very lively. Both on, you know, does inflation demand move from the Fed in terms of hiking? And would that be a mistake? And how does it fit into the overall condition of the economy right now? Yeah, because the issue is inflation can either be driven by demand, meaning a strong economy. And if that's the case, the Fed can raise interest rates and slow the economy down. But if inflation instead is driven by supply, for example, all the prices of that matter, tariffs, it's a lot harder for the Fed to raise interest rates and deal with that. Because if your race interest rates is not going to change anything in the Middle East, it's not going to change anything on tariffs. So that's why the diagnosis of why inflation still elevated becomes very important. And the good news going into next week is inflation has been trending down. We saw that also in average our earnings today. But we did get one number this week, namely ISM, prices paid for the service sector. And that fits by higher. So there are some reasons to be a bit worried that that is a leading indicator for PC and CPI. So that does mean that Friday next week we could see some upward push

11:26because the service sector, which is two thirds of the CPI index, is beginning to say that it's getting a little bit hotter. So the short answer is some indicators on the demand side, and in particular, ISM services prices paid, they came out this week, is suggesting that maybe inflation could surprise you the upside next Friday. I guess that was somewhat echoed by the beige book as well, where there's a lot more focus on rising prices. How much will it matter if the Fed goes 25 basis points? Now, the Fed doesn't often just want to go once. If there's a case for hiking, usually they think that there's a little bit of a sequence of moves. Yeah, the reason why it doesn't really matter that much is because the source of growth, why the economy is doing so well, is because of AI spending. We're spending a lot of money on building data centers. We're spending a lot of money on energy associated with data centers. Companies are spending a lot of money on models. They're spending money on tokens. All they're spending combined adds up in our calculations to about 1% is point of GDP. Normally, GDP is two, and roughly 1% now of GDP growth comes from AI spending alone. And AI spending is not done with any regard to whether the Fed funds rate is four or three seventy five

12:29or the finer details in the Fed watching. Because people who invest in AI expect returns that are 10, 20, 30%. So because those returns are so much higher than the cost of borrowing, it doesn't really matter when you think about it from a growth perspective because the fact that it's driving growth at the moment is the AI spending. If that's the case, then isn't it the situation that the bond market is attempting to respond to that heavy demand? That almost yielded insensitive demand for new financing and we'll have to keep bringing market rates higher or do we not think that has to happen? Absolutely because we both have now upper-pressure inflation, which argues for short-end rates being higher. That's why Kevin Wors has the challenge going into next meeting whether he should hike or not hike if inflation is high, which it is at the moment. It's a strong argument for inflation and rates staying higher. In the long end, not only do we have inflation being higher, but we also have some challenges with the fiscal situation. So that's also putting up our pressure on long-term interest rates. So yes, the whole yield curve is elevated. And if the growth factor that's driving the economy is AI spending,

13:31that means that that's not sensitive to interest rates. So actually, that's exactly why you should expect to have yields to stay higher for longer across the entire yield curve because a little bit of a fat hike even in September is not going to slow down the significant spending we're seeing at the moment in AI. And as has been remarked upon, I mean, it is a global move higher in yield. So whether that's fiscal, whether it is in general kind of inflationary dynamics throughout the world, it's not as if it's just, you know, alphabet sparring a lot of money to build data centers. Very important because it is indeed the case that it's not only the US that's seeing rates higher for longer. Rates are also going up in Germany. They're also going up in the UK. And they're actually also going up in Japan. And that is exactly for the two reasons that you're mentioning, namely inflation is higher, more or less everywhere. A little bit of an exception in the Euro area, but in particular in the US and also in Japan. But you also at the same time have fiscal challenges that continue to get a lot of attention. And that's putting a lot of pressure on rates in the long end. So that's why for markets, the stock market could potentially continue to do OK simply because the AI boom continues.

14:33So that's why everything comes down to this issue that AI is not only important for investing in my 60, 40 portfolio, but it's also really important for the economy. Bottom line, the Fed in a week and a half, do they feel compelled, if let's say CPI is slightly warm, to raise rates as a signal, to say we're on the case. It's been above target for long enough, and we have to at least make a gesture in that direction. Yeah, we have 12 voting members on the FMC. Three of them at the last FMC meeting in July, they said we need to raise interest rates. So the question now is, has Kevin Wars with his speech in Jackson Hole last Friday? Has he also put himself into the corner together with the others who said that we should be hiking rates? We think that they will hike rates at the September meeting, both because the employment report was strong today, but also because there's some upside risk to inflation next week, because of the ISM prices paid to indicate of this week being so strong to this. By the way, we are showing you the closing bell at Cebow in Chicago that ends the regular trading day for options.

15:33Is there any weak point towards the need economy that you feel as if incremental moves higher in bond yields, in short term rates may cause some cracks? Yeah, and what's really interesting about that is that if you look at GDP, it has several components, and the components that are doing well is, of course, AI is doing exceptionally well. But the components that are not doing well are those that are sensitive to interest rates, and that's in particular housing and its odours. Those sectors are in really, really bad shape, because we're interested rates are higher, mortgage rates today are 6.7, they were 2.7 in the pandemic. So for that reason, it's become much more difficult for the housing market, where interest rates have gone up, it's become much more difficult for the auto sector. So in that sense, some parts of the economy are indeed responding like the textbook would have predicted that the transmission mechanism of higher rate are slowing down those sectors. But those sectors that are driving things, namely AI, continue to do well. So that's why in the S&P 500, we've seen significant, of course, continued up-performing by the AI sector, and those that are interest rates sensitive, of course, continue to struggle. Yeah, with traditional auto sectors,

16:35very small part of the S&P, so obviously it doesn't move the needle towards and could see you. Thanks so much. All right, shares of some Sarah, bucking the software downtrend today, one of the few IGV components in the green on the day following its results. Up next, we'll talk to the company's CEO about the quarter and the threat of AI displacement. Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. Sam Sarah shares, higher today after a big second quarter earnings beat, also raising its full year outlook and notching a fourth straight quarter of profitability. With me now in an exclusive CNBC interview, Sanjay Biswas sees some Sarah CEO, and it's great to have you on. I'd love to hear you talk about what is driving this rising backlog that you've seen,

17:38what are the underlying customer trends and demand patterns that you're taking advantage of as you essentially digitize sensors and all kinds of physical technology? Well, Mike, first thanks for having me on. Really, what we're seeing in the market right now is this wave of digitization going through physical operations companies. And so we're talking about industries like construction, whether it's data center construction, utility construction, grid modernization, people building new roadways, and there's just a tremendous amount of activity in the physical economy. These are industries that often haven't seen new technology be put in place for many decades. And so they are interested in sensor data, they're interested in AI, but most importantly, they're interested in solving problems, and we're helping them do that by digitizing their operations, tying it together with cutting edge AI, and then showing them insights and really actions they can take to be safer and more efficient as they do their work. Are you able to do that for customers? I guess in the absence of, let's say, new equipment purchases,

18:39it have to come along with essentially the physical equipment that would be equipped for that. That's a great point. Most of these businesses have a tremendous number of physical assets already in place. So think about bulldozers, excavators, trucks, trailers, so on. Most of those assets actually are not tracked today by modern technology. So a lot of what we're doing is retrofitting that with hardware products we supply. You can get a new truck or a new trailer with Samsung on board, but more often than not, what we're seeing is people have a large existing footprint, and they want to improve their utilization rates of those assets. Fuel prices have been high, so they want to find ways to drive more efficiently, maybe replan their routes in terms of how they're operating. And this is all about the existing footprint, which is quite massive. And I guess AI can be defined in a broad way or more specific ways, but how is it manifesting in your business? Well, for our customers, it's really about using AI to analyze this vast amount of data.

19:41And if you think about things like GPS location, we've had GPS trackers for a long time, but no one's had time to sit in front of a screen and watch GPS all day. What we're able to do now is put AI to work and let you know, hey, is something going on off hours that's anomalous? Or is there something that's not being utilized enough? And that's an unlock that wasn't possible a couple of years ago. And you've highlighted, I guess, the maybe more diversification among customer sizes, customer types out there. Where is it, I suppose, most strong in terms of demand? So we've been seeing strong demand across different industries, but one of the themes that has emerged is the larger and more complex your operation, the more challenges you have that we can help solve. So this last quarter, we saw strength in industries like field services. If you think about your HVAC technicians, your electricians, so on, they have very large footprints. They often operate in many cities at once. And they're trying to find ways to be fundamentally more efficient. We also saw strength in areas like public sector where we're starting to see cities modernize

20:44and say, can we use data to understand all the road conditions, all the potwolds, for example, and fill them in a more efficient order? So it has been really interesting, but overall, I would say if I step back, it's around larger, more complex physical operations going digital. And in terms of the actual data center build, I'm sure that there are lots of places that touches your business. But how levered are you to, I guess, the overall volume of activity there? Well, I would say there is a lot of ongoing activity and data center build out, but it's also related to other trends like grid modernization, for example, that are multi-decade really buildouts that are happening. And then when it comes to data centers, there are a lot of different trades and other construction companies, building materials, companies that are involved. But these folks are all the backbone of our economy. So while they're helping build data centers, and that's been a tailwind effect, they're also helping maintain our roadways and modernize electrical grid. Sure. Obviously, hopefully that continues at a pretty good pace.

21:46I really appreciate you coming on and filling a cent. Thank you. Thanks, Mike. All right. It has been an active day on social media from an investor perspective. We had AMC CEO Adam Aaron with some top words for Robin Hood and Bill Pultie sinking a handful of stocks with his tweets. We'll explain it all coming up and over. It's NFL kickoff time Wednesday exclusive NFL team valuations from Michael O'Zanian Thursday, CNBC Sport Live from the NFL's first ever game in Australia with Commissioner Roger Gidele starts Wednesday CNBC.

22:49I'm pulling back slightly today, but still up nearly 10% on the week. Pippa Steven is joining me now with more on oil and other products. Yeah, Mike. So a positive week here for oil on the back of the US and Iran returning to military exchanges, but it is diesel that everyone is watching after the national average. It a record 585 today. Futures were down on the day. So perhaps we'll see a bit of a break in the Marchire, but the spread between crude and diesel is growing. As Russia extends its ban on diesel exports, while product anchor transits through her moves have not picked up significantly. Now, Tom Closet from Gulf Oil noting that while total US refinery runs are above last year, the US is actually producing 127,000 barrels per day less distillate than the 2025. And thanks to an abundance of lighter and sweeter crude rather than more medium and heavy grades. Now, looking across the country, a number of states seeing record diesel prices today, including Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas. That's problematic as the harvest season gets underway as this chart from Bank of America shows. Acres harvested, picks up in September

23:51before peaking in October, which is the busiest month of the year and all that farm equipment, of course, Mike is run by diesel. For sure. I mean, I guess it can break a couple different ways. Obviously, it kind of lifts reported inflation, but also just kind of acts as cost friction in the whole system. It's hard to see it as anything though, but inflation in the pipeline that's not going to necessarily be addressed soon. If, as you say, there's kind of no way to bring more product on quickly. Yeah, I mean, refiners are running flat out around the world right now, given that it is very attractive economic. So if you have the capacity, you are running. And I think one thing that's notable here with diesel that's not necessarily the case with gasoline, is that it's harder to find that demand destruction level because it is a lot of commercial buyers when it comes to diesel. If you are a farmer, you have to harvest your crops. Exactly. And so, you know, to the extent that that is the only lever for prices to come down, it seems like it could be higher, but you know, we saw at the beginning of this oil found a way to market. So perhaps there is some diesel that's going to come through. That was a big talking point this week that maybe more is getting out of the straight that has

24:52been reported, but I mean, it didn't really seem to impact prices this week. Yeah, I mean, yeah, so probably tangos are not getting through at the same rate, but perhaps there is some, you know, under reported slack in the system. Right. We saw it the way all. Oh, the price will tell us, hopefully. All right, Pippa, thank you. All right, time for a scene with you. New's update with Contessa Brewer. I can tell you. Hi there, Mike. The Supreme Court has sided with Republicans today, granting an emergency appeal in a fight with Democrats over campaign ad prices. The justices halted a lower court ruling that found cheaper broadcast ads within 60 days of a general election should be limited to candidates. Republicans argued the cheaper ads should also be booked to the party committees when they coordinate with candidates. President Trump confirmed this afternoon that U.S. envoy Steve Whitkoff and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, are heading abroad this weekend for a renewed attempt to strike a peace deal in the Ukraine war. The president told reporters today the U.S. had a new proposal to present. Whitkoff and Kushner are expected to hold meetings in

25:55both Russia and Ukraine. That's according to multiple reports. Three Vietnam war veterans and an architectural historian, Fowler-Wasser, today asking a judge to block the groundbreaking of President Trump's 250-foot tall arch in the nation's capital. They say this project has not been authorized by Congress and still needs federal review. Interior Secretary Doug Bergham announced yesterday that excavation work will start over the next two weeks. That's the news for now on this holiday Friday, Mike. I'll send it back to you. All right, Contessa, thanks so much. It is hardly a battle fit for the silver screen, but there's a few to merging between the CEO of AMC and Robin Hood over something one of them is calling outrageous and disgusting details and the impact it could have on their stocks as well closing bell overtime returns. Welcome back to Closing Bell overtime live from the Nasdaq Market site. Stocks mostly lower as yields rise following the stronger than expected jobs report. The Dow losing 271 points, the S&P 500 losing 410s of 1%, 310s lower for the Nasdaq composite, though the Nasdaq 100 did post

27:03a small gain. In video and meta both closing higher adding on to strong weeks, Apple fell 2.5% ahead of its product announcement next week, Tesla lowered by 6% and gave back yesterday's sizeable gains. There is a CEO feud emerging on Wall Street and it's between two companies that don't even compete against each other. Earlier this summer, Robin Hood launched hundreds of tokenized stocks on its offshore blockchain platform, including AMC. Those tokens give investors exposure to the securities without actually getting shareholder rights. It's not full ownership of actual stocks. And now CEO Adam Aaron is sounding off posting on Twitter on on X. I find this practice to be contemptible, outrageous, disgusting, detestable, inexcusable, vile. How can it possibly be legal? We have no connection to this at all and do not condone it in any way. Robin Hood CEO of Lad Tenev giving a very blunt response. What's the concern? Aaron, when then calling stock tokens a quasi-fake market adding, I hereby call on you and Robin Hood to voluntarily cease and desist the trading of AMC

28:07stock tokens. If you don't, our high-priced securities council has been asked to see whether we can force you to stop. That prompting Robin Hood chief legal officer and former SEC commissioner Dan Gallagher to post, we know a little something about the U.S. securities laws and will not desist send your lawyers and we will educate them. AMC shares closing about 5% higher on this news as that kind of very loyal trader base decided this was something to get excited about Robin Hood falling about 2% worth knowing that AMC has issued an enormous volume of new shares to keep its finances in order over the last six years. And so it feels as if it needs to have direct access to selling its own stock to retail investors. Now shares of Robin Hood, they were down today but the stock is leading the S&P 500 this week. It was up 17% as traders grew bullish on the company's prediction markets efforts. Both Bitcoin and Robin Hood are up more than 20% in the last three months. So should investors expect more upside ahead for the stock? Joining us now is

29:08Needham Senior Research Analyst John Tadaro. John, it's good to see you. I certainly want to get to the sort of tokenized securities angle at some point but initially you recently got more favorable on Robin Hood and mostly crypto story. For us it is right so we did put out a note on August 24th where we were effectively saying crypto has bottoms. For a few different reasons one you have a cooling off in AI stocks here so it allows some capital to rotate back into crypto. You also had a lot of the selling pressure already happened in the underlying tokens. The Bitcoin miners sold more Bitcoin in the first half of 2026 than any other period. You had the debts capitulating and selling some. Then also sentiment had bottomed out whether that was retail institutional or crypto native. That had bottomed out. So you're starting to see some activity come back into the market and I think that is going to benefit. Certainly Robin Hood Coinbase as well. Robin Hood does also have their new chain out there right now which is seeing a

30:10lot of activity which is at the center of some of that feud and we think that chain it's going to longer term. I think the beneficial for Robin Hood is capturing a lot of activity. We'll see if that sticks around but so far it's quite hot. Yeah I mean it's a good reminder in general that Robin Hood and crypto trading have been really just linked for as long as Robin Hood has been public and clearly there's other things going on. Robin Hood has a lot of other kind of efforts and product categories but that's been I think a key input. Now what gives you the confidence that retail traders will become as active and as engaged in Bitcoin after you've had this long period when it's traded down it's well below its highs. You feel like it's going to go back to the previous fever? I think eventually you get there and this isn't the first cycle for Bitcoin. Bitcoin's gone through a number of these and I would say every time at the bottom everyone's thinking it's never going to get back to all time highs. Retail is flushed out. Institutions are flushed out but it does find a way to come back and I would say these sentiment indicators are usually a very good

31:13indication of where we are in the cycle and when we ran one of our proprietary indexes that track that it was showing the worst sentiment levels we had seen since 2022 and 2023 usually coincides very strongly with the bottom. So confident here we rebound it might take a little bit obviously to get back to all time highs but I do think we're in the first innings of going on higher highs. Now when it comes to the tokens that are tracking individual stocks it also I think would go along with the perpetual futures and of course the prediction markets efforts that that Robinhood and others have really jumped into. I read some of the analyst notes on Robin and it's all about the volume of college football betting as much as it is anything else. To what degree do you think there's risk to the story that they're just kind of willing to push the limits of what you know regulated brokers is kind of built to do and leave itself open to some of these critiques that maybe it's over-stacked. I think they're operating in a favorable environment and

32:19they're moving very fast very quickly and launching a ton of products. So if and when that kind of hits a wall and you do face more risks because of it you certainly could have some of that but there's also just another aspect to Robinhood on delivering products that do have real demand in real staying power potential. So you likely earn some areas are going to bump into regulatory issues and you are going to have to have legal figure it out as Robinhood was saying today on Twitter on X there but but that being said there's no denying that they do launch products at breakneck speed and they're at least capturing the target audience and the audience is engaging with them. Do you ultimately they have to take a step back on some of these perhaps but they do have a a very strong audience base that I would say a lot of the other platforms haven't really been able to tap into a capture quite as well. Yeah fair enough it is worth mentioning of course that the stock tokens are only available outside the U.S. So that is a little bit of a line that's drawn. John great to have you today thanks so much John Tadar. Thanks have a nice weekend.

33:24You as well. Gold has been essentially flat this year. Up next we'll break down the charts to see whether the precious metal is on the verge of a potential breakout and here's a check on a trio of S&P 500 stocks hitting one year lows today McDonald's Lulu Lemon and L3 Harris closing bell over time will be right back. 500 down slightly today flat for the week and up only a bit over the past three months so is a breakout anywhere in the charts joining me now is Rick Benson your founder and managing partner of Benson your investment strategies. Rick great to see you Mike thanks for having me. You know S&P 500 has almost tried to drain the drama out of things it's been pretty well behaved I wonder what you see tilted toward at this point based on what happened this week. Remarkably resilient but at the same time the all-time high was made August 13th right we're three weeks past that the three catalysts in the second half of August that could have given us the boost

34:24which was Nvidia earnings that helped Marvel earnings did not and then the Jackson whole symposium and the effects that the market have felt since then also negative so despite all this were a decent amount of good news and certainly strong earnings we've stalled right up against a major target area. Yeah we see that. Now what is that so your your inference is what from that we're stuck. We're stuck for now. Yeah eventually this market has always pushed through resistance but for the time being the fact that a spider SPY ETF target was 782 based on the low in July the upside the initial upside target 782 on the all-time high 779 right we've got three points from it and we can't seem to admit. Okay so cautiously optimistic worried if we start breaking under 762 on multiple clothes and I get a little bit. Yeah that's the level that we didn't quite test out this week. Let's get to the 10 year treasury yield and you got kind of a layered look at this but where's it headed. Okay so ultimately higher. Okay and four fits of

35:30Wall Street agrees with me which could be a problem because 80% say rates are going higher. But in a secular long-term point of view there's a lot to think we're going higher. My first mortgage in 1987 was over a 7% mortgage. Now people now would you know are crying over 6% and 7% mortgages but when you think of long-term in history the all-time high in the US 10 year was 15.8% and we fell to 40 basis points as the low halfway in between 8.11%. Now we don't have to go back to halfway but we could easily go to 5.6 to as much as 10 I don't think we're going there but even 5.6 would be a minimum upside target here. Okay so let's take a look at what we have. Here's a basic 10 year chart. Yeah nothing on it sideways for quite some time. Let's add to the next slide. We're going to put a moving average up now. What do we see? Now we have a 200 week moving average. Yeah. Quat that low several months ago. Okay. Let's add one more chart.

36:36So yeah that's too much. All right there you go. 200 week moving average. Now there's a horizontal line that had five lows at 4% to 3.95. The fifth one coincided with the 200 week and look at the uptrend line. Yeah that came from the test of the all-time low started at 50 bips. Right. So when we got there several things came together and within two weeks of that happening which was late March I think I told clients you will not see 4% again in this cycle rates are going higher and my ultimate target I'm going to put it here on 6.07. Yeah 6.07. All right. Excellent. Impressively precise. We got a quickly hit gold. Sure. Because that's actually been quite interesting here. Right so gold made its peak. We sell off and certainly very high peak nobody expects. Yep. Sold off 30%. We've got about half of a back. I think we're stuck now for a bit of time in between. We're not going to go just scream up to new all-time highs. But I think the low that was made two months ago is probably a solid low. Okay. So consolidate in here ultimately however

37:40if gold pushes to new all-time highs my upside target would be about 15% above the all-time high. Wow. GLD terms that's up at 588. Okay so that's almost 6.00. 45% from where we aren't at. All right. That's a big if but it would be a dramatic move. Absolutely. Great to see you. Thanks so much. Appreciate it. Oracle earnings and a pair of key inflation reports could be market moving events next week. We'll discuss how to trade them next close of a low-over-top live from the Nasdaq market cycle. Be right now. Set up with what's on tap for next week. The markets are closed for Labor Day on Monday of course but we'll get the Consumer Credit report on Tuesday. Thursday's highlights are the August producer price index existing home sales and weekly jobless claims and the week closes out with the August consumer price index and consumer sentiment. On the earnings calendar results from Signet, American Eagle, Chewy and Arrow Vierman are out on Wednesday. Oracle the big name on Thursday along with Adobe and Macy's and Kroger's results are out on Friday. So with Oracle earnings and CPI

38:45numbers next week set to test both the tech trade and rate expectations. What could move markets most? With me now to discuss what he's got his eyes on his vital knowledge founder Adam Christopher Lee. Adam good to see you. Good to see you. So you know we kind of escaped this week we even kind of went through all of August kind of holding trend absorbing some concerns about rates and oil and maybe the AI CapEx story. What do you think is going to be sort of the next incremental prime mover as we look to next week? So the events you mentioned are going to be crucial. Specifically the CPI which will be kind of a deciding factor for the September Fed meeting Oracle earnings will be the next major scheduled AI data point and then perhaps the biggest event next week and it's not clear if it will happen next week will be the Anthropic S1 which multiple reports it just could arrive as soon as next week which will provide a lot of insight you know specific financial detail on one of the two big frontier labs which we haven't really seen in terms of audited financials projections backlogged etc. So we're going to get a lot of

39:47critical AI updates next week along with that important inflation reading. Yeah I mean you mentioned the Anthropic guess one which is coming we don't know if it's next week and you know I cited you your comment yesterday saying that if open AI and Anthropic were already public companies they would likely have been down yesterday and a lot of the AI news slow around maybe Nvidia hugging face Meta's new model why would you think that that would be the case? The the frontier of the entire industry seems to become increasingly competitive which we know which I think doesn't build well for the frontier labs which are still in a posting large very large losses and so you had Meta launching a brand new model this week that's very capable and very cheap Google launched a new model this week open AI seems to have you know reached is back in the lead as far as the frontier race with with Astra and then the hugging face deal with Nvidia is an enormous deal it really does seem like Nvidia is going to be coming major player and open way open source models making them very capable and very cheap and so the industry is becoming

40:50extremely competitive that's not to say that AI is not you know still growing very quickly token assumptions is exploding cap X is exploding but the competition is intensifying and that doesn't build well for the economics of a lot of these major companies. Yeah I've wondered if that had a little bit to do with what we've seen in weakness in the AI adjacent industrials now maybe they're kind of trying to get their footing right here but they seem very dependent on many many years of backlog and this idea that you have the sustained capacity spend for a long time to come. Yeah absolutely you know over the last several weeks we've definitely seen out in a pretty aggressive pivot away from the picking shovel stocks towards software and so over you know it's going to be interesting to see if that can continue there's actually you know it's sent set to anthropic the anthropic S1 could help re-ignite interest back into those picking shovel stocks some of these semiconductor names some of the industrials that you mentioned you saw that a little bit today were software came for sale and that other part of the tech trade rebounded but definitely

41:52I think there's there's just a whole lot of hesitation people are scrutinizing the industry more than they were before taking a much more nuanced look at the backlog you know the extent to that can be realized and then the margins and then the cash implications of all the spending. And then of course macro you mentioned CPI PPI on Thursdays a pretty good input into the feds preferred PCE inflation readings I mean how much of a swing factor how much of a maker break is a potential fed rate hike in a couple of weeks for equity markets. I personally think I hike on on the 16th at the meeting on in September coupled with messaging to the extent that you know this isn't the start of an aggressive tightening cycle it's more kind of a one and done around mostly two and done type of action I think that would be a positive outcome for markets it would help to rebuild credibility it would help to potentially reduce yields at the long end of the curve and it wouldn't really provide you know a massive incremental burden on the market

42:53so to be you know if we get a a cool CPI on Friday and the feds is on hold in September we're just going to have this debate again in October we'll have this debate again in December and so I think if you hike in September coupled with language again to the extent that you know we're on hold now for an extended period that we are seeing this inflation then I think that removes an overhang from the market so that's personally in my view I think the ideal outcome for equities right now although I mean quickly I mean the fed would rarely hike once and say mission accomplished right no I think you know I think they're going to suggest that they're so many very dulles they're so going to be very vigilant and looking at inflation closely they're going to be monitoring all the all the various components of the CPI and the PCE but again I think that we're going to have this debate while they are won't they to the extent that continues I think that will remain an overhang for the market so if we can get that off the table you know I think that would act as you know as a cathartic moment for the maybe a best case all right sounds great Adam Christopher Lee thanks so much have a great weekend

43:53that does it for over time as well fast money begins after this quick break it's NFL kickoff time Wednesday exclusive NFL team valuations from Michael O'Zanion Thursday CNBC Sport live from the NFL's first ever game in Australia with Commissioner Roger Gidell starts Wednesday CNBC