CFB Expert Reveals Penn State's TRUE Ceiling With Matt Campbell

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1:00All the way in all the way out, 60 minutes, CBS Sunday, September 13th, and streaming on Paramount Plus. The Matt Campbell era is officially underway as the season finally kicks off, and now we'll get the answer if it was worth all of the hassle, firing James Franklin and going through that exhausting coaching search. You are locked on college crossover part of the locked on podcast network. Four team every day. My name is Zach Seiko, the host of Lockdown, Nitty Lines. He is Brian Smith, college football expert recruiting expert here on the Lockdown podcast, network host of the portal podcast. And thank you so much for joining us on this crossover episode to talk all things Penn State football, Penn State recruiting in this show. We got to catch up with Brian. It's been quite some time. A five star 2028 defensive back is going to be on campus for Penn State versus Marshall.

2:02Does Penn State have a legit opportunity? He is in New Jersey, so he is somewhat local, but we're going to focus on first and foremost, the potential of this 2026 team, how they stack up not only against the schedule, but the super powers of college football this year. If they were to get to that playoff because the schedule is a little, little easy. So how do they stack up against the powers that be Brian? I want to get your thoughts first and foremost on Matt Campbell because over the off season, you said that he would have been the best fit for Penn State when we were talking about prospective hires and we revisit the search and everything else. Now that now it's in place, right? This was your favorite hire, one of them of this past cycle and you said he was the best candidate available for Penn State and it came to fruition. Do you still believe that? I don't think there's another guy they could have hired that they would have done better with in terms of a fit. It's from Ohio. He likes to run the football. He's a guy that can relate to people from the Midwest.

3:03I mean, I'm from Indiana from close to Ohio border. He played at a small school in Ohio. He just kind of fits the roots of what big 10 football is and he understands developing players. He doesn't always have to get five stars like all of it. He's also like no offense to other coaches that have come up the ranks but turning around Iowa State is quite an accomplishment. That place is terrible historically. Like it is awful trying to get kids to go to school there from all over the country. Like I used to live in Florida. He used to get kids out of Florida which shocked me to go to Ames. So that was pretty impressive and then on top of it, even when he would lose a key player, he always seemed to find a way to reinvent the roster, whether it was defensively, offensively, whatever they would shake the tree in some way, shape or form. He'd at least be competitive every year. And going to a bowl game at Iowa State is hard. Again, it's an outpost for a school. It's hard to get players from the big four, Georgia four to Texas, California.

4:03And he's still found a way to get it done. So I can't imagine that they would have done any better like stockies, a good coach, but he's not a fit at Penn State in my opinion. We'll see in time how it works out. But I think he'll be pretty successful for the Nidney Lions. And I was looking back on the Iowa State history because I'm not familiar with it. Two win seasons consistently. And then Matt Campbell shows up and then the standard became, hey, can we get to eight and four? Can we possibly push for a big 12 title despite the limitations geographically, not too much, not as bad financially. Maybe as some people have made it out to me. And I think maybe I've even done that at that point. But it's the regionality of it all very, very tough and certainly overperformed. So now he has the supporting cast. He has more resources, but more resources comes with more responsibilities. Brian, what's kind of the biggest obstacle in your mind for Matt Campbell aside from, hey, you got the increase in competition, the increase in expectations, right?

5:07Because all the jargon is, well, James Franklin didn't win enough. It's, it's what he didn't win. It's not the fact that, oh, he was, it was 10 and two every year. It, it was you lost every single time. I think the expectations aren't as cut and dry with Matt Campbell that, well, if he does the exact same thing, if he gets 3, 10 win seasons and doesn't beat the, the superpowers right out of the gate, he's going to be canned. James Franklin coached at Penn State for 12 seasons. So what's kind of the timeline for Matt Campbell expectations early on, the next five years? How do you see that going? It depends on some of the rules. Keep that in mind because they're ever changing, but yeah, go figure. Especially the stuff that's going on with Kip and all that other stuff. But I would imagine the biggest thing is trying to get as generic as this may be, trying to get the boosters behind the elite money that you need to constantly compete in the portal,

6:08etc. for that over the top player. I just mentioned Kip and they got Jordan Seaton from Colorado. Take it for whatever it's worth. It's rumored they gave him $4 million for one player in his and offence attack. It's not ideal, but like at some point, you've got to be able to throw money at it from the way the top of the market does. And I know that's not what any school board president wants to hear, more trustees, you know, anything like that. If Penn State fans are going to get what they want eventually, they're going to have to get more money. That's one thing. Then the other is just making sure that you can keep his staff. Those are the only two I'm really worried about because it's not that hard to recruit to Penn State. He has to get the right guys on staff for the recruiting purpose, but he got to get the answer on win, come over. They've gotten other good coaches come with me from Iowa State. Keeping them, I think is probably the other thing. I don't know what their aspirations are. Some of those guys have been in with him long time. They're probably going to retire at Penn State would be my guess. If he keeps that staff together, he can get a little more money for some of the weak

7:09kids. Why can't they be a consistent top 10 team? And then it's just like, do we have an elite quarterback one year to make a run? The end of the day, whether you want to hear or not, you got to have the quarterback to win a time. What are your expectations for Matt Campbell initially? Is it because I do see there will be some seasons where Penn State's going to have to go through a rebuild where they will essentially slingshot the pull back. They'll try to stack some recruiting classes and understand, okay, this is a developmental year. It's a tougher schedule that six and six, seven and five is going to happen periodically, especially with the way that the big 10 is. So, but as long as Penn State the following year, hey, they're right in the mix. They're 10 and two pushing towards right. It's the it's 11 and one undefeated. I can I can make so many promises about undefeated. Hey, the schedule's really easy. We're going to talk about it in just a second, but your idea of what Matt Campbell is going

8:10to be able to do from a win from an X is a no standpoint and wins and losses. I would assume by year three, eight and four should be the four barring just a bunch of guys turn and pro early that kind of stuff. And again, it's the portal area and things are changing faster than I can change my shirt, but at the same time, it's Penn State. They should be in the mix. It's a top 15 program by any barometer. And hopefully, again, if they can get the quarterbacks, it should be top 10. That's what I grew up with in the 80s and 90s. So I think by year three, they should be kind of where they need to be. Next year, I'm a little worried. They got a lot of 50 year seniors and stuff on this and they're going to lose Rocco, but they got a tougher schedule next year anyway. That might be your one down year. I don't know if they'll win eight next year. Anybody has a look, go look at Penn State schedule next year. It's not really. It's fun. It'll be entertaining in a lot of ways. But after that, I think he should never really be below eight and four barring just a disastrous season in regards to injuries.

9:11And again, it just shouldn't be that hard to recruit there. I think once they show some proof of concept this fall, it'd be nice if they beat some bit. That USC and Wisconsin and different teams on their schedule. If they can just win something amongst that group and they're always competitive, show proof of concept that 2028 class is the harbinger of things to come. I don't know where that's going to go. We're going to find out what they're made up, but that's the class that really counts for them. And if they do that, there's no reason. Again, they shouldn't be towards the top of the big 10. And then then we can have those conversations about Oregon, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio State. That's the only thing that Penn State fans want to hear. I need to see them play this year to get into that too deep. We're going to get to that 2028 recruiting class later on in the show. I want to talk about the present 2026. It's an easy schedule. It's a favorable schedule. You mentioned USC, Wisconsin. They got Michigan and Washington. So there are some games that Penn State, but nothing insurmountable. I want to get your opinion on what if they were to get to that next part, the postseason

10:16Ohio State, Oregon. Many of the superpowers across college football. How would they stack up against those teams? Because it's one thing with the regular season. But when they get to the postseason, are they going to be that competitive? We'll talk about that next year on Lockdown on this Lockdown crossover. And support for today's episode comes from square. The system powering so many places we already know and love, whether you're running a pack game day spot, a local restaurant or a growing business, square gives sellers the tools to run their business without making things more complicated. Square brings payments inventory payroll invoices, customer insights and more together in one connected system. When you're running a business, the last thing you need is a bunch of different systems that don't communicate with each other. Square brings things like payments, inventory, staff management and more together. So you can spend less time managing the tools and more time actually running the business.

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12:17Let's talk max potential here and then we can go through the schedule because Brian, a truly, now I got done saying, Hey, undefeated is really tough. But when you look at the schedule, USC Michigan, Washington, Hey, if there's some things that break in Penn State's favor, they're healthy throughout the season right 12 and O is, is a greater possibility than it's not. I'm not guaranteeing it. I'm not predicting it. I think they go 10 and 2. It's still on the table with where they are and how favorable the schedule is from your perspective, though, Brian, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, the teams that you know the most, kind of using them as a measuring stick and what you see with with Rocco back, the guys that they brought from Iowa state, the guys that they were able to keep at Penn state. Does Penn State just benefit from an easy schedule or could they actually make a postseason run in your mind? I think they could make it to the postseason. OK. They got to, I don't know, I don't have in front of me exactly the order of the games, but

13:20I would be very, very surprised if they don't beat somebody, but they'll probably also lose to somebody you don't expect. First year staff sets this part of it. I know fans just look at rosters, but that's not how it works. But which game is it they're going to upset somebody because that's Matt Campbell's MO is they're always in games you didn't really expect him to when he was at Iowa state. So he's got better roster. Now then he did when he was at Iowa state, I wouldn't be surprised they upset somebody finished nine and three, maybe 10 to two, it's possible. But do they have horses to make a run in the playoffs? I doubt it. OK. But getting there like in year one would be awesome. People don't realize that how hard it is to put everything together. I know a lot of these guys know each other. They're part of a lot of their players, but it's a different conference. We don't have film on these guys that you're used to going over like they knew everybody in the big 12. It's all new. So it's going to be interesting from week to week to see what they got right and what they didn't with their game plans. And they'll be somewhere along the way.

14:20They're going to have a game where they get down 14 and nothing and it is we didn't project this. We didn't see this coming. You know, Rocco throws a pick six or something and they got to figure it out. That's the game where you're going to find out if you can make the playoffs. You're going to, yeah, there's always a game somewhere along the way. You're just not that good. Do you win your conquers as an old saying, pinstates like everybody else? They got to find a way to do it. You know, they could win that game. They got they got a shot at the playoffs. I really think they do. There are so many parallels to Indiana and that's not me saying this is a national title team. This is they're going to go 16 and 0 undefeated. That's not my argument. I'm talking about the first season where Kurt Signetti was able to springboard that national title run where we remember back to the Indiana season. Yeah, they lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the college football playoff and everyone was saying Kurt Signetti's overrated and look how easy that schedule was. It's ironically enough kind of a similar set up Brian.

15:22If you look at it, Penn State, the possibility of going 11 and 1. There's no and there are legitimately no giants on the schedule. I guess you could characterize USC as that, but Penn State gets them at home. That's going to be the Whiteout game. If you look at the initial projections, the analytics, Penn State's a few points behind USC, a few points behind Michigan, right? They're all in that same tier. They're all in that same category. A ball bounces one way. You get a you get some momentum in that game and Penn State could find itself on the winning end, which is different from when Ohio State absolutely obliterated Indiana and then Indiana played Notre Dame in that playoff game. It was pretty decisive that Notre Dame was going to win that one. There's that proof of concept where you take care of this schedule. Again, it doesn't have to turn into 12 and 0 title run as much as I would like to see that, but 10 and 2, 11 and 1 again, punching above your expected weight class.

16:25Most people are going to say, this is an 8 and 14. This is a 9 and 3 team. They'll win most of their games, but they'll lose to USC, Michigan, Washington, all of their tougher games. This is an opportunity because I say Matt Campbell needs to win now. If he wants to accelerate this process, you have to win in year one. It doesn't, it's not, you're going to get fired if you don't, but you're going to miss out on the positive consequences if you don't go at least 10 and 2. Yeah, the recruiting would be impacted. I think the media would be behind them more. I agree. How much is subjective with the recruiting in the media, but hey, you'll take whatever you can get. And I think it would be good for the fan base. They need something to make them feel good about being pinned state fans, grads, alarms, current students, whatever it may be. That is huge. They need again, I've talked about it off the top. There wasn't by mistake. I know they don't want to hear it.

17:25If you want to get to that level, the money's got to go up. And I mean, substantiate for NIL. You know, I get that's fine. You're going to enjoy eight and four to 10 and two football until you're blew with the face. Get over the top. You got to overspend. One way to get people to donate is the win in year one. That would be a great way to do it. The schedule sets up nicely as I've mentioned, Brian, just to kind of conclude this segment and then we'll talk recruiting. We'll talk the future because that's how Penn State really sets itself up. And the priority is the 2028 class. What can you tell us about Rocco back to what you like about the, you know, what you like about this team from afar that, you know, you think this will be a, you know, great offense or a great defense that'll get into some rock fights. How do you view this team from that X is a no standpoint? Well, first off, I knew Rocco when he was in Tampa because I used to live there, him and his family are great people. I would have imagined that he's probably going to assimilate to Penn State really well.

18:26He's a pretty gritty guy, very blunt, very honest, especially off the record. I think he'll fit into Penn State's community well. And I think he'll be a leader that's going to be helpful in the games that are so close. And I also think that playing four years of football already, that matters. And finally with Rocco, this, this is a guy that's, he knows what it's like to be on the good end of the bad end in some of those close games. His knowledge will be good for some of the younger Penn State players. Kobe Howard, different players like that. So far as the makeup of the team, I still think they need to be ground in pound for the most part. They've got a couple of good receivers, but it's not the deepest room in the world beyond Kobe. And I, I don't know what to expect out of the tight ends. They got some talented ones. I don't know how they're going to use it exactly. I would assume it's going to be pretty similar to the Iowa State offense in a lot of ways. I like their roster in terms of how it's built offensively for what they did in Iowa State. I'm just curious how they're going to do if they get behind. That's my only concern.

19:27If they have to go four wide down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, how does that look? Those are things that, as they say, you got to watch the games, but as long as they're in close games, they can grind out with anybody. And they're going to be big on both sides of the ball. They've got a ton of fifth year seniors. So that's good. And lastly, I'll just say, I'm curious about the back end of the defense. How are they going to attack? It's different to run that defense at Iowa State in the big 12, although they did have some really good quarterbacks in that week for a long time, one of them from state of Texas. Playing that 335, when you play bigger teams, I'm curious how that works. That's going to be interesting. I'm not saying the scheme's not good, but in the big 10, there's some massive aligns. I'm curious about the matchups. It'll be a hybrid defense. So there, it won't necessarily be a 335 base. It's going to be a 425, 435. They'll run a bunch of different combinations and stuff. They might go three down defensive lineman, but as far as if there's any misconception that,

20:29oh, Penn State's going to run a 335 and stick to it. No, that's not, that's not going to be the case. They're bringing over Danton Lynn's defensive system. So what he primarily ran at USC and UCLA, that's the carryover to Penn State with some of those other elements to make it more of a hybrid defense. Hey, let's talk future. Let's talk recruiting Brian. You're the recruiting expert here in the Lockdown podcast network in Penn State. According to rivals has the number three overall class in 2028 with three commits already as it is to them. A lead prospects that they absolutely need to retain, but they're also bringing on a five star prospect to campus. We're going to get into the latest with how Penn State projects for the future of its recruiting coming up next here on this Lockdown. Across over. Support for today's episode comes from ultra pouches football season means long days early mornings, late nights, and plenty of time spent trying to stay focused and energized, whether you're heading into work, you're getting a workout in or settling in for a full day

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22:35This message is brought to you by Apple card, shaved ice by the beach, a trip to the state fair, and a throwback flick at the local drive in. There's more than just items to check off the summer bucket list. There's also opportunities to earn 2% daily cash back when you use your Apple card with Apple pay. Apply for Apple card now and use in a minutes with Apple pay subject to credit approval, Apple card is issued by Goldman Sachsbank USA Salt Lake City branch terms and more at Apple card dot com. This day it's going to have an important weekend more than just trying to beat Marshall and start one and no in the Mac Campbell era. It's also to continue to make strides in the 2028 recruiting class because it is no secret that Penn State is really prioritizing the 2028 recruiting class. And this look, I don't want to say that I'm shocked. I think Terry Smith still being the corner backs coach would have played a part in this, but it is a good sign to see Penn State bringing on a top 10 player in the nation. Top number one or number two at his position, depending on where you're looking in the

23:38recruiting rankings. Nassir Richardson out of the state of New Jersey, but it goes along with what Mac Campbell is prioritizing Pennsylvania, New Jersey. I would say it's definitively one and two for PA in New Jersey, but honestly, the way that he's treated New Jersey even at his time at Iowa State, it's practically a one B in the scheme of things. That is going to be such an important state, but the talent's there. It's not just because it's close to Pennsylvania, it's because the talent is also there. So Brian, to see Mac Campbell not even have coached a football game yet and a five start taking a visit when he could go anywhere else. He's choosing Penn State. I think that's a good sign. I mean, he could go to a lot of places and he doesn't, I mean, it's not a big game and he's coming. I think that's probably the one of those kids. This is just from personal experience. If it's not a really big game, they won't go. Like I deal with kids in the South, that work with coastline 7 on 7.

24:38We got kids going all over the country, Oregon, Georgia, et cetera. A lot of times they get invites to Georgia or Clemson or whatever. One of the big game that didn't care. The fact that he's gone, no offense to Marshall, but to G6 program is probably telling you that he's pretty darn interested. Maybe you don't have anything else to do that weekend, but he still doesn't have to go to happy value. That's taking time out of his day. Go and go to Ratchet. Still a trip. Absolutely. I don't know what the distance is there, but it's still not convenient. And then if he's there, this is something I talk about with people all the time, that matter of the school or whatever. But if the number one player in a state is going to visit somewhere, it's going to catch eyeballs. And it's probably a scenario where I really don't think he'll be the only one. There'll probably be some other big guys there. But most of those guys are going to ask him what he thought if they don't go, et cetera. And it wouldn't be surprising if he came back later when some of whether it's Taj Gray or the Woodward Brothers or whatever it is. That's important. It's a slow product.

25:38Right now is not recruiting time for an analyst, but it's a big time recruiting time for college football teams because these are free trips for them. It's building relationships. If you want to win, you've got to get them on campus now, not just build relationships with the player, but it's about the family memorizing the sister's name and all that little stuff. It matters. And then you've, of course, seven on seven coaches, et cetera. It's a lot of logistics. You try to set up future visits, junior day and January or February, all of that. It's very important. So getting him on campus is a big deal. Some of those other players that you had mentioned, New Jersey, they're from New Jersey and Penn State. That is one of the priorities. But when we look at this 2028 class, Brian, they already have two elite commits. They have three. One of them is a special team's a place kicker, but the two notable recognizable names, James Armstrong at quarterback, four star QB in the state of Pennsylvania from the Pittsburgh area and Deonte Fleming's corner back out of Erie, Pennsylvania.

26:42So going towards the east side of Pennsylvania, Brian, I mean, I am impressed. Somebody who hasn't coached a game at Penn State yet. And well, he should. It's his backyard. He should be able to land prospects right away. I agree with you. Great, but still when you don't have that proof of concept yet and you're not getting guys that are just trying to take up a roster spot, right? James Armstrong has SEC offers. The ante Fleming says SEC offers. They can go anywhere in the country and they've already pledged to Penn State. That's as good as you can get. I mean, that's the only thing you can get them to do right now. So that's top of the board. And on top of it again, those are kids in an area that are very important. Like Armstrong's Pittsburgh, the other kid is from Erie. Other schools are still going to come after. Maybe they take visits, maybe they don't, but they pledged early to Penn State before he coached a game there. That was my one question about him, even though I was very high on him coming to Penn State.

27:44I needed to see how he did in the elite big boy recruiting battles. And there's a bunch more to come before I make getting kind of judgment over the next couple of years. But that's a, that's a big proof of concept that he has to get over and probably the last one really. I already know he can coach. So we'll see what he can do. But if you see these elite players in New Jersey, Baltimore, DC, I'm not worried about the PA kids too much. That's while hanging fruit. They should be able to get 60% of the in-state kids, like they're going to pass on some. But DC, New Jersey, especially North New Jersey, kids from like St. Peter's, et cetera, Bergen Catholic. That's where your bread's going to be buttered. They can do that and they can steal a few kids from James Franklin and Virginia and stuff like that. They can have top 10 classes. I'm not too worried about it. The only other thing I'll add is again, who's that next quarterback? Is it Armstrong? No, it's the answer is you need somebody like Armstrong every year. You could never assume you got to load up on those. It's so hard to project. He's actually going to be good at the college level, understanding post-nap reads.

28:45But obviously, off to a good start with getting him because he's probably the best in-state quarterback and he's mobile. I think that's a really good fit. That is where we're going to wrap up this lockdown crossover. He is Brian Smith of the Portal podcast, our college football recruiting expert here in the Lockdown podcast network. My name is Axeco, the host of Lockdown Netany Lions, bringing you daily content around Penn State. I'm a daily with recruiting, portal news, college football in general, also covering Florida State daily as well. So give Brian's work a follow and give the Penn State show a follow as well to keep up with the Netany Lions. Brian, thank you so much for the time. Hopefully, we can stay in contact with one another just to get that general perspective of how the outsiders view Penn State. So I appreciate your expertise and your analysis as always. Thank you so much. Absolutely. Appreciate it. Ever enjoying those iconic red, white and blue freezer pops in the summer, now imagine that flavor reinvented as an energy shot. Introducing the Firework Freeze 5-hour Energy Shot, a flavor explosion of sweet cherry,

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