BREAKOUT: Utah Jazz Ceiling EXPLAINED – Can Jaren Jackson Jr. & Lauri Markkanen Lead a 50-Win Surge?

0:00This is the Lockdown podcast network celebrating 10 years of your team every day. Hey sports fans, it's JD, the host of Lockdown Cardinals. And did you know with the Discover Cashback card? It's payback time when you earn cash back on everyday purchases. Activate and earn 5% cash back in different categories each quarter on up to $1,500 in purchases. That's 5% cash back at different categories each quarter like grocery stores on gas and restaurants. It pays to discover terms apply. See Discover dot com slash 5 four details. This is Jake from Lockdown. When the game is on the line, the best no way to pass because the right assist can change everything and off the court. It's no different. That's where your state farm agent comes in, whether it's protecting your car, your home or helping you prep for the unexpected. That'll help set you up with a game plan that works for you like a good neighbor. State Farm is there. Covered options are selected by

1:00the customer availability and eligibility vary by state. The jazz are one of the teams the largest spreads from ceiling and floor this season. So let's pinpoint where they're actually going to land. You are locked on jazz. Your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team every day. What's up jazz nation. Hello and welcome into Lockdown Jazz. My name is Leif Tulene excited to be with you here on Lockdown Jazz. Today I'll discuss the high end outcome for the jazz. What has to happen to low and outcome? What would go dreadfully wrong? What's up jazz nation? Hello and welcome into Lockdown Jazz. My name is Leif Tulene. Excited to be with you here on Lockdown Jazz. Today I'll discuss the high end of the day. What would go dreadfully wrong? And what is most likely outcome for the jazz this season? And what would cause it? So let's start with the ceiling. The best case scenario for the Utah Jazz is. And to me it's it's driven a lot by how quick the ascension of

2:01Darren Peterson happens. And just how good he is. Because we all have seen that rookies get better. There's been a long standing history of this for the jazz. That's just been how good they've been to begin. Have they factored in what so ever? Oh, Chag Baji came in and was good at the end of the year and people were like, oh, you know what? He factors into the future. Well, he's traded soon after. Taylor Hendrix was great to finish the year, but he didn't play before. Cody Williams didn't play much at all. Didn't see a ton. And then you saw East Bailey got eased in, but he ended up scoring 16 per game the last two months of the year. That was real. And it's far more substantive than the prior was. Darren Peterson should be even ahead of where East Bailey was. And I don't think there's a lot of things that are going to be really the training wheels on for Darren Peterson. Darren Peterson is going to start right away. And be a starter. Be a starter in the NBA on a team that has the aspirations to make the playoffs. Not the play, but the play offs. And that is where it matters. Is is can his starting ground be 15 a game and it's finishing the ascension when he

3:02reaches the end of the season be. Hey, I'm one of the three most important players on this team not only in the future, but right now. And he's scoring 18 points again. 20 points again to finish the season 18 throughout the entire season. So how quick is ascension happens? Is of the utmost importance to me and I think really drives where the ceiling is. Now another thing that could impact the ceiling and I'll address how many wins this is kind of the numerical. The figures behind this. But I think another thing is just how well does a full dose of Jaron Jackson, Larry Mark and work. And an offensive tandem in which you're not seeing a ton of speed of the offensive and the way it goes. And I think that's what I'm going to say. I'm not seeing a ton of speed of the offense, but you're seeing a ton of size. How well does the Lowry work as the full time three? How well does Jaron play with another big like Nirk gets we've seen him do this before, but it depends on his shooting for his offensive efficiency. And of course on the other end of the things, how great can Jaron Jackson be defensively when he is the jazz is only true, very good

4:02defender that factors into the starting lineup. I think Jaron Jackson's got to be the best player on the team this season. For the jazz to be great, Larry Mark and will likely leads the team in scoring probably should score on 25th game if the jazz is going to be as good as I hope. And Darren Peterson probably finishes the season being the clothes with the ball in his hands. So that's the best case scenario that all three of those things happen. That Lowry and Jaron are both all stars or fringe all stars. And Darren finishes the season with the argument of being the best player on the team. And analogy I would draw. Or I guess something that would be similar I would draw would be how Dylan Harp plays the ball in the game. And I think that's the first thing that I would draw. I would draw would be how Dylan Harper at the end of the season for the spurs looked just as good as Stefan Castle with the ball in his hands. Those stuff on Castle throughout the season was the one who drew accolades and praise. That makes sense. Okay, let's let's continue diving through what has to go right. I think you have to see the all star back court of the future emerge as well. You have to see synergy from Kionte George who had a near all star season last year in terms of just output. You need to see that it's

5:03substantive on and on not empty calories scoring on 27 usage rate for a team with 22 22 ends and 60 losses. You need that Kionte breaks out in plays like an all star routinely. And you need a leap from Ace Bailey along with what I've mentioned about the superstar ascension of Darren Peterson. You need some synergy between all these offensive offensive prioritized players. And so that will be important to see how Kionte synergy with the other players is with a lesser score. And so that's what I think about the super star ascension of Darren Peters and you need some synergy between all these offensive offensive prioritized players. And so that will be important to see how you need some synergy between all these offensive offensive prioritized players. And so that's what I think about the lesser scoring role, but a larger facilitating role. And just how good he can be at that well helping cultivate Darren Peters in rise to taking the jazz to the promised land. So the team outcome. This is what you guys are all one to hear. Experts of course are going to project the jazz. Make the biggest leap because they've got Darren Peters in. They've they've gotten Darren Jackson for this year. And it's 22 wins to way more. But like the over under

6:03with 36 and a half. And that's not a great season. So what is my actual ceiling here? And I think this is going to shock some people. I predicted I just want to be clear. I predicted the jazz in 43 games. I think the jazz ceiling is winning 50 games this season. And everything I just mentioned has to go right and one more big one. The jazz defense needs to be within the top 20. And my expectation, as I've said numerous times, is I think there's somewhere between 20 to 25. Defensively, meaning that they're one of the 10 worst defense teams in the league. And if that's the case, like my expectation, their offense has to be otherworldly. The offense has to be so good. And top 10, but more so top five, that the offense propituates the jazz into the conversation of being a team that can crack the playoff without the play in. And that's what 50 wins would do. Now, is this a pipe dream absolutely? Is this unlikely? Yes. Is this something that's unattainable? No. I'm trying to give real realistic ceilings. And I've seen a lot of people be like, OK, how the jazz can win way more than the 43 you predicted.

7:03And I've seen some people be like, Oh, the West is going to have a ton of teams that are good. So there's going to be fewer wins for every team. That's probably the, that's probably the safest and smartest way to look at it. But I do think people that know the NBA look at the jazz and say, OK, if Darren's really great, Larry and Jaron offensively are very capable of scoring 20 a piece. And Larry probably more like 25. And he aunted George as legitimately very good and conducive to winning. It's hard to argue that the jazz are going to be at 36 wins. So when I say 43, I heard some people be like, why not hire? So this is best, best case scenario that the jazz are top five offensively, top seven offensively, and 15th to 20th defensively, and the jazz find themselves to 48 to 50 wins. It's a little ambitious, probably a lot ambitious, but this is the ceiling. Next we're going to talk about the worst case scenario if the wheels fall off and the wheels fall off and the wheels fall off and the wheels fall off and the jazz hit the floor. What goes wrong and what would the season look like in terms of the numbers? All ahead, unlocked on jazz. Support for today's episode comes from square.

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9:04without slowing down. Right now you can get up to $200 off Square Hardware at square.com slash go slash NBA. That's square squa.com slash go slash NBA. Run your business smarter with Square. Get started today. I also want to tell you about our friends at Murdoch, Hyundai, Murdoch has been in Utah for over 80 years. You guys know the Murdoch family very well. And Hyundai, best car for your money. They've got safety features, bells, whistles, and all in amazing cars for amazing prices. I've driven the Tucson, which is one of the stars of the SUV line up with the Kona, the Santa Fe and the Palisade, the Tucson was amazing. And every time I would use a blinker, I would illuminate in the mirror. So I wouldn't have to swivel my head back to the main computer on some other cars where it illuminates if there's something there. I would just keep my eyes to the mirror. And all of a sudden it would show me exactly what's going with it, not only the mirror, which you could see, but also an image as well. And it's not only that those cars I mentioned, the Kona, the Tucson, Santa Fe and the Palisade, but they've got the Ionic 5 and 6 electric, looks like a Porsche and won the World Car of the Year

10:05for the 6. And there are three locations in Lyndon Murray and in Logan. I've been to the one in Murray. They took great care of me and they'll take great care of you. Hey sports fans, it's JD, the host of Lockdown Cardinals. Did you know with the Discover Cashback Card, it's payback time when you earn cashback on everyday purchases. Activate and earn 5% cashback in different categories each quarter on up to $1,500 in purchases. That's 5% cashback at different places each quarter like grocery stores on gas and at restaurants. It pays to discover terms apply. See discover dot com slash five for the tails. Welcome back to Lockdown Jazz. Leave to lean with you here for a worst case situation for the Utah Jazz. So the worst case is really that the Jazz miss the playoffs in the play in. I'll have a number figure to how many wins this is, but I want to be very clear. The worst case scenario is that the Jazz miss the playoffs

11:07in the play in all together and they're outdulled by the warriors. They're outdulled by the Mavericks. They're outdulled by the sons and the Blazers teams that the Jazz have every possibility of being better than. So that happens because the Jazz are either injury prone and let's knock on wood that that doesn't happen. Of course, that could happen anyone. So worst case scenario is that Jaron Jackson gets injured, Lowry gets injured, someone like that of the utmost importance gets injured. And the Jazz just do not have the firepower they need offensively. And in the case of Jaron, the defense becomes untenable without his amazing ability to impact the game defensively. So without that being said, the other things that I could see going wrong this year. I think it could be one learning the hierarchy of who should get what shots when the season progresses, how much should be catered toward Darren Peterson? How much does Kionte George handle the responsibility of being a facilitator versus having just scored 24 points?

12:09How frequently does being so heavily reliant on the youth growing and the season growing pains that you could have where you have a second year ace Bailey that matters a lot, a rookie in Darren Peterson who will have a good usage rate while you still have stars. But one of those stars in Larry Marken hasn't won. Jaron hasn't been the best player on a team. And it's hard to imagine that it'll be smooth sailing offensively even though the Jazz have the firepower to be amazing offensively. I think it's easy to imagine that the over-aliance on youthful pieces and inconsistency that comes with youth in the NBA could catch up to the Jazz. I'm just hoping that it's for short periods of times rather than elongated stretch that would sacrifice parts of the season for the Jazz where they need to be really good and use that youthful energy to propel them to wins on back-to-backs instead of the rigors of the NBA hurting their youth and then hurting the Jazz. The other part that I could foresee going wrong

13:09is that you see struggles from Darren Peterson and Ace Bailey who the Jazz, like I said for the best case scenario, need to really take big steps forward as the season goes but certainly just from the start of the season that Ace Bailey needs to be better than he was last year. That Jaron Peterson needs to get better as the season goes along as opposed to lose confidence. I think that the main thing that the Jazz that everyone kind of knows is going to be different is most teams have an identity on one side of the basketball. It's very clear. I think the Jazz are going to be very good offensively I want to be very clear about this is the worst case scenario. I think the Jazz is going to be very good offensively but if you're to ask me what the identity of their offense is I'm not sure we have like a bonafide answer to that. Like Lowry Markins should leave the team and scoring. Lowry Markins will shoot a lot of threes. There's going to be pin downs and flares and that's just my hypothesizing but I'm pretty confident in that. But you don't necessarily know what role Kianta George,

14:12what role Kianta George is actually going to excel at versus what we expect and hope that he's good at as a table setter for others after having a 27 usage rate and scoring 24 a game. Like what role is that like does he have the buy in? Yes. Does he have the skill set necessary to win with that buy in along with teammates that are growing around him when he knows he can score? Does Darren Peterson offensively, does he take off and is he as efficient as we think in the, you know, the secondary, the tertiary scoring role that we think he can be because he's used to being the lead score. Is there an adjustment for a rookie? Usually that's the case. No matter how percocious you are. Usually it's very difficult to score efficiently in the NBA. Can he put pressure on the rim? There's going to be a lot of questions asked of Darren Peterson because the hopes of the franchise are tied to how well he performs down the road. But immediately if the jazz want to make the playoffs, they need him to be good and they need him as a third or fourth offensive punch. That is efficient. That is someone on the basketball floor on both sides

15:14that makes a huge difference. And then that brings me to the biggest concern I have, defense. The jazz, I believe, will be between 20th and 25th in defense, which means they are bottom 10 in the NBA. But it could be catastrophic because you, Sirfnerkitch was never a great defender, but he was better than he is now. Jaren Jackson is a very, very, very good defender, great defender. Lowry is not a particularly a depth defender though he does have size. I would argue that it's very unlikely Darren Peterson will be a good defender as a rookie, even though I think he will be a good defender in time. But I think he's more like a flashy defender of steals rather than amazing stance, getting like bothering players. And Kionte George is through three years of very poor defender. Now the jazz have other guys of Kogi that Jaren for Josh Green, there's going to be players that can improve defense. But as a unit, the jazz have been 30th, 29th, and 30th in defense the last three years. It's a lot of hope to say, you know what,

16:15we're going to be good on defense all of a sudden. And I think the worst case is that the jazz are 25th through 30. And their offense isn't quite as elite as I thought because there's going to be growing pains surrounding the one young players, but two, just who does what? And the assimilation to playing with so many talents and players, for players who have been used to being prioritized so heavily in Lowry, Marketing, Kionte, George, that the jazz then missed the postseason altogether. So what that would look like is the jazz kind of hit the 36 range of wins. Like that was the projection. And I still think that's too low. I still am very much more that that is too low. But it's hard to ignore that that's the projection around it. And then you look at the suns, you look at the blazers, they're projected 40 and 43 wins. You look at where the lakers are, 45 and a half. And I made the case and I actually believe that the jazz could be better than the lakers. I really believe that. But if a bad season according to Vegas odds is a couple like worst case is a standard deviation away from the positive, it's probably six games below that.

17:19And that's 30 wins. And that's only eight games more in the jazz where when they were trying to lose and end up with the number two pick. So worst case scenario to me isn't 30 wins, but it's somewhere around like 33, 34 wins. And it's below what Vegas odds said. And it scares me that Vegas odds were pretty confident that the jazz would be a sub 40 win team. When I feel like that's closer to the middle ground. Speaking of the middle ground, we'll touch on that next. What's the most likely situation to happen for the jazz? What are my actual expectations for the season all ahead unlocked on jazz? So that's it. Support for today's episode comes from indeed sponsor jobs when workplace chaos hits the right hire indeed sponsor jobs helps connect employers with can it too much specific needs like skills certifications and location. So less time gets spent searching and more time gets spent finding the right fit. People are finding quality hires on indeed right now. And in the minute I've been talking to you companies like yours made 27 hires on indeed according to indeed data world wide.

18:20Usually the biggest difference isn't someone doing more work. It's having someone who knows exactly what needs to happen and helps everything run smoother. The jazz can hope that's Josh Green that it's Jared Jackson. They take the jazz to the next level. So spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes, less stress less time more results when you need you need the right person to cut through the cast. This is a job for indeed sponsor jobs. And listen to this show. We get a $75 sponsor job credit to help get your job. The premium stats that deserves at indeed dot com slash podcast. Just go to indeed dot com slash podcast right now and support our show by saying you heard about indeed on this podcast. Indie dot com slash podcast terms and conditions apply. Need to hire as a job for indeed sponsored jobs. Hey sports fans, it's JD, the host of Lockdown Cardinals. And did you know with the Discover Cashback card, it's payback time when you earn cash back on everyday purchases. Activate and earn 5% cash back in different categories, each quarter on up to $1,500 in purchases.

19:21That's 5% cash back at different places, each quarter like grocery stores on gas and at restaurants. It pays to discover terms apply. See discovered dot com slash five for details. Welcome back to locked on jazz leave to lean with you here for what I would call is the realistic baseline level of where I think the jazz will be. I've said this numerous times that I believe the Utah jazz have the offensive capacity to be one of the top 10 teams. I think they're likely to be one of the 10 worst defensive teams. And if you were to average us together, let's just say 10 and 20, you get 15. That's not exactly how the net rating works because of course, it's by how much you're ahead of different teams. But bear with me for sake of simplicity. I believe that the jazz will be somewhere between the 14th and the 18th best teams in the NBA, which would put the jazz in the play. It's pretty pretty normal. The odds say the jazz are probably the 11th best team in the West. I think that's too low.

20:22So what happens for the jazz to make the play in which is my expectation? I think that the jazz have a big jump where their project is 36 and a half wins. And that's 14 and a half games better than what they were. But we know the jumps happening because there's more better players. And there's also the urgency to win. And let's just call us Bay to Bay. The jazz have not had urgency to win. In fact, there have been times where the jazz have had urgency to lose. And so I think this is a massive improvement that will just happen based on habits getting better. The part that concerns me and it brings me back to reality if we're taking this from a, this is good to do it. This is bad. Is the jazz have been bad defensively at each of the four years. Will Hardy. Now, will Hardy a bad defensive coach? Who knows? Time will tell. But will Hardy will have a lot of pressure on him because the jazz will finally have the talent to compete and actually compete with the intentionality of winning. And the jazz will spend the first couple months hoping that they get off to a hot start because I think the start.

21:23Could help the jazz front run. I think the jazz, the urgency, the youthful nature of this team could be a worst case scenario if it goes poorly, but I also think it could be a super power because they'll try harder than everyone else because of what it means to the franchise to make the playoffs again. And I think this could be huge for the Utah jazz absolutely thinking to be massive. Now, what I think happens is the jazz turn into one of the better offensive teams in the NBA. And I hope it happens sooner rather later. Maybe the NBA catches up with what the jazz are running. And this is how you guard this. But the jazz under Will Hardy, where above 500 one year start off very well. Mike Conley leaves in the jazz slow up and they also were at 26 and 26 through 52 games, a couple of years ago, and then went 31 and 51. Meaning they went five and 25 after for the final 30 games. The jazz can play offense with Will Hardy. I think they're going to be really good at defense will control their ceiling because if their defense is good, they can get a lot better. But it also controls the floor because if you can't defend it all in the NBA right now.

22:24And your offense has some questions in terms of the hierarchy. It makes it a realistic question to be like, can this team actually be above 500 and now 500 in the West is different than 500 in the East. Like we've seen some truly awful teams from the Eastern Conference make it out of make it and be in the eight seed in years and years. The Bobcats back when I was a kid, the pistons post-choncy and post tie a T-Shon prints and all that. They were horrible for many years and they got in with Blake Griffin and they finally won a game. But those teams won with like 37 games, 37 games, which is be a over for the jazz's projected wins would be different than that. But I really do think that the jazz likely outcome is that they win about 40 to 42 games. I said 43 is my projection. That's still my projection. If you look at the math, the most likely scenario, of course, Vegas is going to say it's theirs. But I really think it's around 40 wins that the jazz end up making the play in because they are not consistent enough defensively. And their offense isn't so brilliantly to doubt ways those concerns defensively. You're going to have to live with some ups and downs and inconsistencies of youthful players you rely heavily on such as Darren Peterson, such as Ace Bailey, such as even Kionte George and assuming a new role.

23:35And then you need the star power of Lowry and Jaron to really elevate the jazz in a way that makes them a true contender down the road. So I think a realistic baseline is about 40 wins. I'm going to say the jazz win 43. I just think that they're going to play harder than teams. I think the offense is going to be great. And you just need the front court to carry the load early and you need the growth to be very evident and noticeable day in day out from Darren Peterson and Ace Bailey to lead the jazz to beyond this beyond 40 wins is based on how much the youth can improve. Getting to 40 wins is going to be heavily on the shoulders of Lowry, marketing and Jaron Jackson. So that's my estimation, the ceiling, the floor, the middle ground. Let me know what you guys think. I appreciate you guys for tuning in as always. And if you haven't already, check out locked on NBA where they keep you up to date the collis Leonard stuff's praise you check that out and hear the latest thoughts on what happened with the Clippers was it harsh was the punishment fair. What how does this even happen? All covered on locked in NBA. Thank you guys for making locked on jazz your first listen and as always go jazz.

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