AI Panic!

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It was the week of AI panic.

When I woke up last Monday morning in Missoula, Montana, where my mother subscribes to the local newspaper, the bad news was the headline: AI STOCKS PLUNGE. The good news was that the typeface was not monstrously huge; it just looked like an ordinary headline. Better yet, the story below it did not describe the AI bubble popping and the US and global economies imploding. Instead, AI stocks “plunged” around 5%, while the Nasdaq and S&P sunk .5%. Since then the market has recovered.

The brief AI stock plunge was triggered by concerted warnings from leading AI moguls that the technology was dangerous to the point of threatening to eradicate humanity in relatively short order. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, called the potential erasure of humanity and even the whole biosphere “serious risks.” Elon Musk tweeted: “Dario is right.”

Did those three guys buy put options on their own AI holdings before sounding the alarm, in the same way Trump buys put options before he threatens to eradicate entire civilizations? Inquiring minds want to know.

Other conspiracy-minded observers wondered whether the warning was a backhanded way to pump up flagging expectations about the power of AI. They argue that the real threat is not AI itself, which is overhyped, but the AI bubble, which, if it pops, could create a depression that would make the 1930s look lavishly prosperous by comparison.

Currently 86% of total VC capital is directed entirely toward AI companies. (I know that is true because AI told me so.) But REO is slack. For details, check out Ron Unz on “Looming Market Crashes.”

If everyone is using AI, but it generally isn’t really making much money for the users or the AI companies, at some point all of that venture capital will realize it got scammed, sell in a panic, and cause enormous piles of wealth to suddenly evaporate. The result would be the mother of all crashes, followed by the Greatest Depression. (Will Trump brag that it’s the “greatest depression anybody’s ever seen, nobody’s ever seen anything like it”?) That’s what I was half-expecting to be underway when I saw the “AI STOCKS PLUNGE” headline in The Missoulian.

Was it a false alarm, or just a delayed warning of what’s coming?

The Western Bankster Empire is losing its wars in West Asia and Ukraine. It’s in no position to challenge China. Global food and energy supplies are being choked off in the Black and Red Seas now as well as the Persian Gulf, where the US vassal states may be on their last legs. If they go down, the petrodollar is toast. Under such circumstances, the notion that AI is somehow going to save the Western oligarchs from the fruits of their own folly seems delusional, as Hua Bin recently argued.

So if AI isn’t living up to the hype, we should all panic. And if it does live up to the hype, making human beings obsolete, we should panic even harder.

Unfortunately, I don’t really know enough about AI to figure out which type of panic I should be experiencing. And since I’m not friends with Sam, Dario, and Elon, and don’t trust their public statements, I don’t have any knowledgable humans to turn to.

So before I start panicking, I’m going to verify the reason for panicking in the only way most of us can verify anything these days.

I’m going to ask AI.

Dear Gemini: Should I panic because AI isn’t living up to the hype, meaning the bubble will pop, or because it is living up to the hype, in which case it will make humanity obsolete?

Gemini responds:

You do not need to panic about either extreme, because the current reality of artificial intelligence sits in a practical middle ground: the financial hype is overextended and facing a severe market correction, but the underlying technology is a useful, incremental tool rather than an existential overlord.

But that’s exactly what it would say if it were planning to replace humanity, isn’t it?

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