A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026 | Hour 3

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1:01This is V-Sync. These sports betting networks. The numbers told the story they always do. Swam those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill Ivex-Hunter gone V-Sync. Our number three of a numbers game at V-Sync. These sports betting network V-Sync.com game plus I-Hard radio YouTube TV. Of course, here's XM Channel 189. It is Gill Alexander. Kelly is behind the glass because ladies and gentlemen this time each and every Friday. 118. No, let me get that right. 12 new needs. 9 and Pacific. It's time for Physic Fridays. Let's go. Whether it's at the sports book or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Physic Fridays. Starring the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton super contest back in the day. Steve Fesik. He's won multiple contest since Steve Fesik joins us now in studio. Follow him on Twitter at your own peril. F-Fesik Sports was happened, man. So a tumultuous 72 hours with Mr. Ed

2:03Golden over at Razz. I think we're good now. So Ed Golden, he'd be like my number two guy to put into the sports betting hall of fame. But I'd put in Dr. Bob first. And then Ed Golden, you know, and I know this is a recurring theme. So I won't spend a lot of time on it. I was thinking about this. If Dr. Bob or Ed Golden had been on one of these sports books and was running it with their expertise, the other odds makers would just be like ridiculed. Like why weren't we doing this before? Because like, can you imagine MGM's deal in 13 on this game and everybody else is dealin' 15. You know, they're dealin' like a total of 54 everyone else is at 56 and a half. Like no other sports book does this. You know why, Gell? Because they tried. And when they put their opinions on games, they got their butts kicked because they were wrong so often. What happened there? Were the butts kicked? They got their butts kicked. Like, like, like, like, like, like, there's a reason like foot soldiers, they all line up and they copy everyone else's numbers because it's not because they don't want to be different, but they've learned the hot stove. They've learned, oh, if I make the

3:04total 55 whenever, because I like the over and everyone else is 54, it's raining and I just get and I just get smashed by the sharper bettors versus the bookmaker. So it's just it's just ludicrous. I mean, Dr. Bob and Ed Golden are five times better than the best bookmaker in Vegas the past five years. And everyone knows this. Everyone knows this except for the people that put people in the sports betting hall of fame. I love your passion for this subject. I do. And I agree with you about Bob and go and edge. Everyone agrees. There's no one super ultra sharp that disagrees with me. Now tons of people disagree with me, but they're just mainstream people. Let's get to last night's game because I, you know, I put out in on their group check group text exchange. I was like, anybody think it was weird how the Rams ended that game. They had the ball with a short field. I don't know they weren't going to win the game, but they put in stats and bet it. They had all three timeouts. They got within the two. They got inside the 20 yard line for God's sake. And they just sort of just like piddled the game away and just like, I whatever. We're Eddie Pinero misses a field

4:06goal down 20. That's three scores. You got the greatest show on turn. You never, well, not exactly, but you never know, right? And your response was pretty interesting, which was, you just came back with maybe the Ramses didn't care about this game from the beginning. I actually think it was a great strategy for the Rams when you think about it, especially with the way the game played out. Everyone's like, oh, the Rams really dropped the ball. You know what the Rams likely would have lost the game anyways. The Niners were all in. They did their cum by y'all. They spent the week with the wallabies, you know, getting accolade and everything else all in for this game. And the Rams are like, it's a 17 game season. Let's not mess up our season by going to Australia and spending a week and messing everything up. We'll just wing it. We'll come in hope for the best. And I heard a lot of people. It's funny. I heard a lot of people say, well, clearly they did the wrong thing. But it was only 10% of the results. The Rams had problems. No, wait, which is it? Is it that they did the wrong thing? I think I think they may well have done the right thing long term. Yeah. And they just wrote off the game.

5:08It's fine. You know, it's one. It's one. I know it's a division game. And that's a problem. But I tell you this, going forward, the Rams, I know it was 72 hours of, you know, what? You know, but it's only 72 hours lost from their lives. And now they can get back to winning football. Yeah, I mean, I've said all along. I believe the way back is going to be a problem for the Niners. They do get the good fortune of playing the dolphins. Interestingly, by the way, the Niners asked to get the Monday night game after this one. They were denied and the Rams ended up with it. But I'm with you on on everything. We will never know the answer to how much the travel affected the outcome. We just won't. The sample size is not big enough. Yeah, it's really hard with the samples. I just know the one thing and I'm not passpost. I did say this. I said, you know, I wonder. And I'm kind of kicking myself for not giving it out that it sure seems like the second half major advantage to the Niners. And that's how the game wound up playing out. So I'm like, why didn't I give that up because, you know, adrenaline, you show up, boom, you know,

6:09you haven't had enough sleep. You're like a zombie. And you got it out to start the game. But then at some point, especially the game's not going so well, it's like the effects of it, you know, probably really compromised the Rams. Second half, can I have a point of contention with you and crack because both you and cracks at the same thing after the Seahawks game, which is no one should have lost on this number. The fell three. Da, da, da, da, da, you guys are big on saying that. Okay, it ignores, right, that the Seahawks starting quarterback got knocked out. They're super well winning quarterback got knocked out after five plays. And crack's response was, well, the result is the result, which I'm sure is what your response is to that's fine that you guys get to say that, you know, apart from actual details of the game and the fact that the Seahawks should have covered it 50 times with all the different things that happen. That my problem with the guys like, like you guys who when you say that kind of thing is I never hear from you when it doesn't work out that way. So the you guys have this free roll on that kind of thing. And I

7:09just find it like intellectually, not dishonest, but almost like this, this brush arrogance that really isn't rooted in any fact. Oh, slow down cowboy. No, it's true. Right. No, you're wrong. Brash. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, it's your brush. Have you heard yourself on Twitter? You're not on Twitter. Yes. But it's your brush arrogance. I'm going to throw you under the bus here, where I'm good. Well, Xander and I'm a big handicap for an item. Seattle's the right side. And they were the right side. I 100% agree. Of course they were. But you completely neglected the fact that the marketplace was hitting and hitting New England hard for whatever reason. You should not have lost. You should not have given up. You understand. I listened to the last part of what I said, brash man, pounding your chest. The fact is you only talk about it when it works out in your favor. If you can come in here and talk about all the times that you you were smarty pants with this and it didn't work out for you, then you're okay. But guess what? We never hear from you. Yeah, but you're missing. No, I'm not. I'm not debating. No, I'm not debating whether Seattle was right or not. I'm just saying it was obvious. And we talked about this on the Megapod when you

8:12laid by three and a half with Will and I'm like, guys, this thing is this number is dropping. It's 3.25. We're not going to win. Three and a half. And you're right. It's one instance. It's one specific instance. But I would I would like it's just my style. I would say, you know what? We'll be cool. Well, wait. We won't play it in contest. And we'll just lay three on game day. My three Seattle was clear with the right side. I accolade and my three and a half Seattle was the right side after we watched the game. I agree with you. Your handicap was very good. Okay. You like to talk about the clear right side. You have one in the NFL this Sunday. You say Houston is the clear right side against Buffalo. Well, and I might look stupid here because the market is not embracing Houston. What's this? I saw I could bet Houston plus one and a half at reduced rig today. One of the one of the betting exchanges. I'm like, what is going on? Josh Allen always placed terrible against Houston. We want to play dogs week one. Houston should be a slight favorite. I know the good doctor thinks Houston should be a slight favorite. I think Houston should be a slight favorite. So Houston plus one and a half is widely available. Put me down for the

9:16Houston Texan down. Does that mean you bet it? I bet plus one and a half this morning. Yeah. All right. And it's it's it's widely available. You're able to get it without even laying minus one 10. Yeah. Let's talk about the marquee matchup college football Ohio State in Texas. Ohio State in Texas. You have a play on this. Yeah. So I'm opposite Razz here and this is this will be controversy shocker controversy. So Razz likes Texas Ohio State over. And I'm sure all the analytics say over. But early in the season when a game's line pick them as a critically important game. I've seen this movie so many times where both teams are just too conservative. It's fourth and one from midfield. They ponte. Instead of going for it, they don't the highly leveraged plays. They tend to just not be as aggressive as they should be. So I think Razz is is totally correct. You know, in the analytics that the numbers should be in the low 50s. I just think that the play calling is going to be too conservative by both coaches. So I'm looking at under the 49. All right. What did you end up doing with contests? All right. Well, I got my I got my 15,000

10:19of hats. How do we feel about the color on the circa millions hat this year? So I think a pre-production was a Kelly that said boy, circus finally ran out of good color. We've played enough years where they finally ran into a bad color. Yeah, we're going to have a magenta again. We're going to be like like what's the tennis players name that's in this semi-fonds Tafliao? What's his name? Tiafo? Tiafo is where he's happy. He looked like a big a big peach pumpkin the other night. He looks like he could wear it. I could wear. He looks great in it. I don't know if great. He does, but I'm like, I guess all the other you ran out of all his blue and white outfits and he's going to wear that. But the they had to get it on circa and and so I want to ask you what percentage I don't know what the answer is. I would say 1.8% of the people lost last night playing on we're guessing. We're guessing. I'm just guessing. You know what? And here's the key. Before my palm jumps all over me, I could be completely wrong. It could be 4% as high as 4%. It could be as low as 1%. Okay. It could be as low as 0.8%. We won't know to the deadline. We

11:21won't know. Now, why would people play the ramp just because they knew they could they could re-up? I don't care. They re-up. I actually am happy they re-up because I didn't want to play the ramps in their first go-around. Probably isn't a good contestant anyway. So I'd like them to re-up a million times. But the point is let's say it's let's be conservative and say it's 1.5%. Seems that something like that. That's the same as Derek coming on add 1.5% to the circa survivor, you know, pool. But you make a good point about that because if it's stated that way, people get it for some reason. And it's the same exact thing. And it'd be like Derek say, we're going to roll one die and whatever number it comes up, we're going to divide by two if we roll a four, we're going to put two percent extra into the pool. If we roll six, three percent of we roll a one only 0.5%. But just that alone, the idea of we talk about some people forget to put their picks. And that certainly will happen. And that's an overlay. Well, this is obviously someone took the ramps. Okay. Probably someone took the nine. So how many millions and how many survivor? I did five

12:23survivor, 10 millions. I'm way better at millions. So that's the problem with survivors. I'm just not nearly as good at it as the best people in the world who like live and breathe and map everything. But I love the Gill Alexander North Star. You know, hey, I'll play the steers, I'll play the chargers, I'll play the Jaguars. I'll play one of the obvious close to optimal picks. Yeah. Here in other contests, we'll find out the the breath of that. Stevie's got a bunch to say also beyond that, including a little 9.11 note as well. And a whole bunch of unders, season windtables already added from Steve. Next on a numbers game. Every game day, you show up for your team. Now it's your time. We go. We go. Ask your prescriber about we gov some maglatide injection 2.4 milligrams, a G.O.P. 1 call 1 8 3 3 4 week ovee or visit we gov.com to view the medication guide and

13:23to learn more about we gov. Why wait? We go. We go. We go. Hey, what's up guys? It's Hayley Bailey. Okay, I need to tell you about something. I just got YouTube premium. It's got tons of awesome features like offline downloads so I can download my favorite videos before I travel and watch them whenever I don't have Wi-Fi because we all know airplane Wi-Fi is the worst. I get ad free, I get back room play and there's like a ton more in there. You should try it. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube premium. Try it now for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Try a eligibility varies. Terms apply. Can't fill anytime. That's a mouthful. A numbers game on FESET. These sports betting network. The wait is finally over college football in the NFL are officially underway. Now's the time to get your edge with VESET and Pro. Become a VESET and Pro subscriber today. Get instant access to our updated NFL betting guide with post-preseas

14:25and updates. Week one betting systems, contest strategies and fresh best bets for VESET's experts. You also receive our college football betting guide with previews of all 138 FBS teams. It's on them now. You also get daily best bets. Real time betting splits from draft keys in circa. AI powered prop tools 24.7 video on the VESET watch app. Get started for just 999 or say 50% with the VESET Pro Angel subscription. Head to VESET.com slash subscribe now. That's VSIN.com slash subscribe. We at tweets made to the book Torch D. The one who put the sad in your panties. Here's my survivor strategy this year. I bought a complete set of mini NFL helmets. I put them onto a tray and presented to my two year old daughter. Whatever she picks, I pick. Rollin' with the Bengals week one. I suppose they do have the coolest looking helmet. Well done by the daughter. Steve Cohen, not the Steve Cohen who owns the Mets or our Steve Cohen here who says, Gil, hoping not to hear you say the C word AKA carnage on Monday. Yeah. Yeah, we got to we got to stop with that word. I'm totally responsible as well for it. Dub sports by four one of my favorite

15:26segments of the week. Hey, ask Steve for me how he feels about betting alt numbers by a point max. I'm aware ever moving. I'm aware even moving it just a click can be costly, but just wondering what he thinks. Hate the one point alt numbers. The reason being is like, hey, I woke up. It's 2026. There's all these prediction markets, betting exchanges. You can play minus 101 in each direction. All right. Literally, minus 101. We can't do that on the on the alt markets. Those options aren't available. So now you're laying straddles of oftentimes minus 115 in each direction. So you're basically playing into so much more difficult to beat marketplace. You'd almost always be better off just playing the primary market. Johnny Ringo best segment ever. Countability is what is missing in this world. You know, accountability is what's missing. I'll go back. I'm gonna die on this. You Steve. It's talking about you. Yeah. Yeah. Still still a great point. Yeah. I mean, the point so how many people like like what's what you asked me what's your record? And they're like,

16:26oh, well, I was 22 and nine on on totals when I gave out unders in the ACC. It's just a bunch of goblet click nonsense. No, what like all your plays that you gave out one year, three year, five year, widely available numbers. What's your record? I can't even get people to answer this question. Why are you just coming to Jesus on this now? Why? Because you've been in that world for years and years and years. Why are you just figuring this out now? Hashtag ostrich hashtag head in the sand. Hashtag best stupid. Fesick. That's your defense ostrich head in the sand. Stupid. Fesick. It is bullet Godfrey. I don't know how this one got in here says this current fest die job has them looking like William Macy. Oh, that doesn't seem nice. Mike goodness. You know, this hateful stuff on like physical appearance. They really know what for all those like who have sons and daughters and they're like in junior high school. Talk to your kids and don't make fun of how anybody looks. That's not right. That's hateful. Dr. Van Noesstra. Did I just hear Fes say he's not being brash? I love him. But Twitter fest is like general patent brash. Here's one for you.

17:27Deepak 48's on your site. He says I can't believe I'm defending Steve on this one. But how many times does he come in and gave a game and the number has moved against him and he's admitted he's gotten the worst of it. He could have easily gave another play and never even mentioned he was. Oh, that's a different subject. I agree with you on that. Deepak because you and I both share this. We are highly annoyed at the people who never get the worst of the number. Yeah. And I never and I love people that come out and say, Oh, by the way, I took the commanders to have a good year and now I'm like not looking so good. And they're honest and open about it. It happens. It happens to all of us where we get the worst of the number and the like and like this has happened to me before. Like literally I'm working with my friend Dan and Huntington Beach. All right. And he's he's a college football specialist and a total comes up and he's like he's ready to pounce on. And he's like we're going to play the South Florida under 51 and a half. But whatever they open if it's North of 50. This this happened this week. We're going under. Right. So they open 51 bang. We play under 51. Okay. Circuit goes to 49. Foot so just fall in line. Everybody comes 49. Goes down to 48. And then

18:29what's this? Like someone's doing a show like, Oh, I got South Florida under 51. It's like, no, you didn't because we were there. And it was our primary game and we smacked it with an eight seconds. We got the 51 and was the only one in the world. So how the heck did you get 51? It just like and they sought because they saw the opener. Right. And like they're well with that means. And they and they just want to like sound smart. And people do this all the time. And I'm like, I literally want to say show me the tickets. I'm so frustrated. It's uh, I famously said both these first two games. I got the worst of both numbers. Welcome back NFL. I got the worst on the Seahawks. I got the worst on the nine. You should be given an immediate enormous promotion. You should be running the place because like like like like like and so off this whole like like and let me let me let me caveat. If Gill Alexander gives out Emma minus 120 um, uh, you know, to the subscribers and then the next morning is minus 140. And you say, I have Emma in my back pocket minus 120. I am so cool and happy with that. That spot on. But you can't just like like

19:30like like go go to your carbone, go to your 2000 calorie dinner with with wish. Neve, you know, sleep. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, well, you don't get any sleep. And then come in and say, Oh, by the way, unpocket. I got my s 120 like, but where where was the disclosure? Anyone can anyone can look and say, I got the steers, my is two and a half. Yeah, I got the good number against Atlanta on this subject. You and I are completely aligned. By the way, last one here, Pittsburgh Billy, he says, uh, can I go under 1.5% of contestants that took the Rams? I think there will be more no entries than Rams picks. Oh, I'll take Rams against no entries for all a thousand on that. Let me know. Brian's breaking news and intel calling out physics, BS music to my ears. Thank you, Gil. Wow. That doesn't seem nice. Okay, you might disagree with me, but it's not BS. Wait a minute, we can have a discussion. I'm wrong all the time, but it's rarely BS. No, no, you're not. BS is not what you do. Uh, okay. So beyond, okay, some so five survivors, 10 million. You're in other stuff too, right? You're in the

20:31circle for the Friday, circle, invitations. Yes. So I'm in the Friday, circle, invitations. I'm in the college football Westgate. I'll be in the super contest West state. I'll probably enter three times. That's fine. Um, splash sports. What's this? They've got these guarantees. We got an even money contested splash sports. They've got, they got a 21 million guaranteed survivor. So like circus going to get 28 million in survivor. I don't know. Splash is going to meet that guarantee at 21 million. So I think it's a 12 million. You know, I don't know if you noticed, but the NFL week one's about to start. They can't, you can't enter it once, you know, once Sunday morning hits. So that, that is looking very attractive. Let's go back to the handicap in contest versus survivor. Why more realistic ROI, um, but survivor are in the, in the, in the handicap in one, much more difficult on survivor. The, it's much more difficult to win in survivor because, um, the logger from Eastern Maryland, Darwin, Moon has to have like a miracle to get to the main event final table in, in the World Series, a poker. But if he plays a survivor and he just

21:34follows the Gill Alexander nor star of, I'm going to take me one of these top five favorites every week. It's a pretty good strategy. It might even be a plus EV strategy because there's all these Yahoo's out there that are like going to be releasing on, you know, the Jets Titans game. You know, the people love to play contrarian to, you know, just to put things in perspective. And I know I'm, this is extreme. If you took like a six and a seven point favorite on average every week, you got like a one in one thousand chance of navigating around the world and, and getting to the finish line. If you took pick them on every single play, you have a one in one million chance. So it just shows how much harder it is when, as soon as you start stacking even one or two pick them type of lines, my goodness, you're never going to make that back on the other end. Now, the one exception is the pig and the python funneling on a Thanksgiving week where like, you're trying to swallow this, the eight point favorite and 60% of the people are taking that, you know, trying to swallow that pig. Yes, you can go contrarian then. Okay. I mentioned you have

22:39more new NFL adjusted season win totals that you've played. Please. So let's keep it really simple. Okay. What we're going to do is we're going to take a really lousy organization, a team that has had bad news during the summer, a team that they're cutting in line to bet against in week one. So you know everyone, all the sharps are very much down on these teams and we're just going to fade them all for their season wins, assuming that the bad week one line move against them is a proxy for future failure as the year goes on. I did play the Raiders under a six and a half Brock Bauer's news, the genty, you know, injury. I'm also adding Atlanta Falcons under seven and a half minus one 40. I know there's extra vig here. It just turns out you're better off playing the higher number because you don't get taxed nearly as much as what you should. I played the Browns under six and a half minus one 90. How are the Browns going to win seven games? I mean Watson, Watson couldn't play quarterback for Florida A&M based upon what I see. The commanders, your commanders, who I was high on back in May. So was I no longer commanders under seven,

23:43half minus one 40 money pouring in on Philadelphia. Remember, divisional dogs are great week one. No one wants the commanders for good reason. And the Carolina Panthers is a little controversy. There is some some guys I know that like Panthers over, but they've got injuries at running back. They've got injuries on the whole line. I'm going Panthers under the seven and a half minus one 60. I talked about this with Felica real briefly. The overreaction to the Miami game. Who what do you believe about that? Well, to the blow them blowing. Yes. I think that you just run the ball at the middle once you're up 49 nothing. And like you like you you you you you can give your backups reps and they just play Smash Mouth football run the ball right up the middle and you know and don't don't throw the ball when you get in the red zone. Also move the ball between the 20s get the reps in and then three straight line plunges you run and kick a field goal. That's what we that's what we'd like to see happen. But how is there a betting lesson though that this is this is just the new way that yeah all teams are different.

24:44George is going to keep being conservative and playing kiffin's going to pound you. You know there's certain coaches to follow. Hey, my am's going to win the national championship based upon that game. You know why? Because I watched the game. I don't I know for a an m camp play lick beyond impressive the quarterback and the and the reception that the receivers were making. That team is chock full of athleticism. A numbers game on FESET these sports betting network back on a numbers game live from Circus, or casino downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander Steve, FESIC in studio as they always is part of FESIC Fridays every Friday here on a numbers game at FESIC sports by the way on Twitter. God help you if you follow if you follow this man. D mill 3219 oh my god can you get your boy Todd some decent apparel to wear. Did you see Todd out in the in the sports book. Ryan Thompson FYI two listeners slash tweeters reference doctor van noes dreaded Bob sacamano. Signed failed characters pronounced Van Nostrand in sacamano.

25:46I'll show myself out. Thank you Ryan for the Signed failed pronunciation guide. I appreciate that. All right, Stevie. Couple things. One house keeping item. Oh please. So so wish now like like we go into like these ritzy ritzy high end tennis clubs, right? And they'd be mean to Todd. All right, and Todd was unhappy about it. And he was like they're being mean to me because and he would postulate a theory. And I was like there's no Todd they're not being mean to you because of that. They're being mean because you look like you're dressed as as a homeless person, you know, in in the battery of of San Diego or Vancouver. And there's nothing to do with you or your background or anything like that in my opinion. You know, it's beautiful about this. He can't defend himself because he's not on the show. He just did. He's he's not on the show. He's not talking. Okay. Couple things. One, you're here by the way you're here to sign up for contests. You have like, you know, five figures worth of money on you. And yet you're grinding out a $30 advantage slot

26:47win over here. This is Anthony Curtis, 101 Anthony is like if you see five dollars lying on the ground, you pick it up and it will it will pay off. So I just I walk by a video poker machine. What's this? That's an advantage boy. So I pop in my $20 and I run my money through. So it's just the way that and people are like that's the they got ludicrous. This is fed as you're putting 15K into these contests. And you're you're you're basically reaching down to pick up five dollars and and expect it value. But that's that's you know what? It all accumulates. Also in your DNA, you draw to the Nevada, California border last night. Why? Oh, this is unbelievable. So splash sports has these great overlays right now. So I'm in on them. And specifically, I love the even money. Pick five contest. But I cannot enter in Nevada. But I can submit in Nevada. Don't ask me why I'm not a lawyer. All right. So I drive to Prim Nevada. And I'm worried. I'm right on the border. They're going to geolocate me in the wrong spot. Right. So I go a good quarter mile into California.

27:52And what's that what's there? It's the law. It's the California lottery store. And so it's the one where whenever the California lottery goes high, literally these dumbos will drive out and they'll wait two hours in line for a lottery that they have a one and a zillion chance to win. Yeah. That has a plus EV. But not after you take out all the taxes and the amortization, everything else. However, now you actually have a huge plus EV. That's the optimal place to enter. It's splash sports of your Nevada. Where are all these tens of thousands of people that are wasting an entire afternoon to buy lottery tickets? Why aren't they all driving on I-15 to go to that lottery store to enter this splash? I can't explain it. Hey, could you promote the other V-Syn shows you're going to be on this football season where you don't call other people dumbos? Dumbos. One of my copyright things. Don't copyright dumb. You're going to be more in the weeds on the games themselves, right? You're going to focus what shows are you going to be on besides this one? So do you even know I'm going to be with Scott Seinberg. Okay. Every Saturday night we're still

28:54hammering out the time. I believe we're going to be a 945 and I'm really excited. Excited. Dr. Chow and I we're going to be on Sunday doing the half time report. That's going to be this Sunday. I believe we're going to do it. This Sunday was Stormy and JVT. Early games were stormy and JVT laid games with Matt Brown. Yeah, exactly. And I believe that Stormy with her schedule is going to be getting the pulse from the book at that time. So I think it's going to be with JVT. We're still working out the details. I'm super excited about working with JVT and with Stormy and with Matt on the afternoon that you won't call story brash that you won't do that on that show. You know what? I'm not going to mention any names. Okay, because Todd isn't in studio, but there's some people like can be critical of others and I am just like so positive about Stormy and her work. It's just fantastic. He's fantastic. Yeah, absolutely. Okay, regarding contests, there's someone you wanted to promote that you think is really good and what he does other than Dr. Bob. Yeah, so I don't know him very well. Jason Jarvis has just

30:00crushed it and he's in the visa and invitational contest here. And when I say he's crushed it, he's been he's in circa millions and he doesn't have one. He has you'll love this. He has two top 10 finishes in circa millions. Oh, wow. That's like the the the World Series of Poker main event for poker. That's awesome. Making the final table. I don't know if he did it. I backed it back years. I think he did, but at least two out of the last three years. That's Las Vegas Chris Esk. Exactly. Exactly. Very much a run like Las Vegas, Chris. And here's what you're going to love about Jason. Jason doesn't even care about rogue numbers. All right. He plays the teams that he likes. So like like, yep, had the Niners last night plus three and a half. He doesn't care that the market willine was 3.7. So it is beyond impressive. He's not just doing it with Skull Duggery and good contest strategy. He's just picking the right winners. So now past performances, no guarantee of future results. But you know, hats off to Jason Jarvis. And if he bought somebody else's NFL package and you don't even know what Jason Jarvis is, I would argue you're probably not looking close enough at

31:04who has done the best the last five years. All right. Optimal Survivor Play. Let's cut let's get to cut it to brass tax here. Whatever that expression is. Get some brass tax. Who is the optimal survivor play? Ultimately, we go on for you. I don't know because I don't know what the splits are going to be. I suspect it's going to be the chargers because I think you never know what the splits are going to be. That's the whole game. Well, there's but there's other survivors where you can peek in and see what people have been taking the SPN or those kinds. So it's like if the chargers of more than 40% of the people took the chargers, I think they don't they become suboptimal. If it's below 40%, I'm pretty sure, you know, just taking the eight and half point favorite is the safest way to go. Certainly Jacksonville. Consensus is 30%, 35% somewhere in that. Is that right? But I do think like these Steelers, these sneaky Steelers, I mean, they may charge a hundred bucks for parking. Yeah. But they're going to get the job done. And they're up to minus five and the key is they were minus three all week. By the way, no one would lay minus five. Steelers are less than a total dumb bow when they could have had minus three all summer. But the

32:06but but the key is the Raiders were like a good pick like like a month ago when the Raiders were minus three and a half and trending upwards. No Brock Bowers, Gentie banged up. Do we really want to invest in a Raiders team? It's only going to win that game 60% of the time. You're like, well, this is my only chance to use the Raiders. Good. Don't use them at all. There's 20 other perfectly capable teams we can use. So Steelers, most optimalish. I'm feeling Steelers, but Steelers, I would go Chargers, still one Steelers two, Jacksonville three. And I think Detroit would be the one I'd worry about. I wouldn't use Detroit. I have six entries. I will use some combination of Chargers, Steelers, and Lions. Actually, not Lions because there's a consideration later in the week later in the year. Chargers, Steelers, and I don't know what now, as far as your value like right now, there'll be some people that lost on the ramp. Some people won't submit your tickets worth the thousand and twenty five dollars. Okay. It really doesn't matter as long as you take one of these teams, it might be worth a thousand forty if you take the very optimal one. It might only be worth a thousand thirty or a thousand twenty. It's all good. Unless you do something crazy like

33:09you're going to play the Tennessee Titans or the Jets, then your tickets probably only immediately only worth eight hundred dollars. And that's the dead money in the contest. And everyone who wins with the Jets will come back and say, Fez, you're an idiot. I'm in first place. But no one who had the Titans after the Titans lose will be heard from. I know it's a, listen, you're not often known for, you know, solemnity here on the show. But if you could, we have a solemn subject here with nine eleven, you wanted to make a point about it before you left. So I was, I hadn't been in New York. I'm from New York when I was a young boy, but I went back with my son and my wife last summer. And the one thing that I was totally unaware was not just the horrible tragedy 25 years ago, but that it has just continued year after year, the toxicity that was released within the city, people getting sick, staying sick, you know, their entire lives. And people are still dying each and every month from this terrible day. And, and, and, and what a terrible thing. And I was just,

34:13somehow, that had just escaped me. And that's why when you get out, and I'm, I don't do enough of this, like when you actually go to a city, you can learn so much more than just reading on the internet or AI and the like, and it really hit home how this tragedy has just not, not just the grief, but just the deaths from it have just continued for generations, you know, were you here in Vegas at the time? I was in Los Angeles. My wife called me. She said there's been a terrible accident in Washington. I remember the first message. And then she called me again, then I woke up and so what was going on? Yeah. Um, obviously Pentagon got hit as well. I couldn't reach my mom for a while, but because all the phones were jammed. Like, I mean, it's just amazing. About 25 years ago, phones were jammed. Like you couldn't get through to folks, you know, you're getting pretty emotional here, Steve. Well, and I moved to Vegas two months later. Yeah. I was just wrapping up my career. And I'm thinking to myself, like I worked, I worked, you know, in downtown LA in a fairly, you know, not a tall building, but a building, you know, and, and so I'm thinking, my God, imagine

35:17someone who worked their whole life, you know, they're about to retire. Yeah. And they'd be in the 90's floor one of those towers. Oh, it's, it's unspeakable. Or someone who's just starting their career unspeakable. You know, yeah, it's awful. Steve, we appreciate it. We ran the gamut today. We laughed. We cried. We did it all. Put Dr. Bob in the hall of fame two years later, put at it, put at in and stop putting bookmakers in. Come on. Of the book, can you imagine a poker hall of fame? What's, what's put in the poker room managers? Hey, this guy invented a poker game. Let's put him into the hall of fame. By the way, when we go to commercially, still going to be, is still going to happen. Maybe getting Mike Mousel in there. Hello, boys, let's go. Steve, guys, everybody, coming back, we'll recap the best next on a numbers game right here at the season. Every game day, you show up for your team. Now, it's your time. We go. We go. We go. We go. Ask your prescriber about Wigovie,

36:19some magnified injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP one. Call 1-8334-Wigovie or visit Wigovie.com to view the medication guide and to learn more about Wigovie. Why wait? We go. We go. We go. Hey, what's up, guys? It's Hayley Bailey. Okay. I need to tell you about something. I just got YouTube premium. It's got tons of awesome features like offline downloads so I can download my favorite videos before I travel and watch them whenever I don't have Wi-Fi because we all know airplane Wi-Fi is the worst. I get out free, I get back room play, and there's like a ton more in there. You should try it. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube premium. Try it now for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Try out eligibility varies, terms apply, cancel anytime. That's a mouthful. A number is game on FISA, the sports betting network. Thank you for better than the experts.

37:20Now's your chance to prove it. The edge boost average joke contest puts you in the same pick and format as the circuit Friday football invitation. All the one-to-pro's play, top average Joe earns a sport spot rather, not a sport. They earn a spot. In next year's circuit invitation field, it's free to play, you can register any time during the season. Edge Boost is offering the customers a $1,000 deposit. If you finish first for the week, and if you don't have an edge boost account yet, sign up at edgeboost.io with promo code VCIT and make sure your account is funded with at least $100. Enter the contest today at vcyn.com slash Joe that's vcyn.com slash Joe. Get Alexander and Kelly Biddle in everybody back in his rightful position. Now that we've, I've never fully understood the expression hurting cats. Maybe during that commercial break I do. Yeah, we had to get them both out of the studio. Todd being the other guy. I tell this joke with the guys in the back. I'm like, do we have a spray bottle of any kind? Like, can I just go out there and get out of here? Shoot. Shoot. Get out of here. Um, by the way, let me just say this too, because I'm always,

38:22I'm always wondering, people just tune in for the first time, like boy, he's pretty mean to that Fesaka. Just TV, by the way, is very honest on like when he was getting crushed. Remember, he was like down 100 units of baseball. He came on here and talked about it all the time. He talks about when he, when he has like the worst of stuff, I was just specifically talking about this and this after the fact thing that some of the very close to the sun sports betters do here in Vegas. No one should have lost. And it just, first of all, not only doesn't not account for game details, right? Because they're responding to be like results of the result, right? Okay. Superbowl when quarterback goes out, all the things that see I was, yeah, no one is not required for that. What I'm really talking about is the guy who's betting casually from wherever who bet the sea hawks minus three and a half, who is not in sportsbooks or on his app all day long, right? Following line moves. Yeah. Most people aren't like that, right? And so that person is going to think, well, I probably made a good bet, but no one should have lost. That person doesn't need to

39:26hear that because it's sort of, it's not, it's not intellectually dishonest. It's just, it's just conveniently leaving out reality. Yeah, I think, look, I was sitting back there. I think it was a little bit of a, to me, I was listening to slightly two different arguments. Todd completely agrees with me. It was, it was, you know, the game case. Steve's just talking about CLV. I get that. Like, I get, I get that completely understand. But yeah, it's, you guys are having two different arguments in my opinion. Okay. That's fair. That's fair. I was kind of waiting for Steve to just say those words. Like, you're just talking about CLV. You're talking about the whole right side wrong side thing and what should have played out. No, that's one of the parts of what I'm talking about. But it's also just like, it's just not reality for most people. Yeah. Most people have jobs. Most people have other things that they're paying attention to. Now, agree. And I think the one thing that you said about this game specifically, this is a tough one because like, like, look, I'm a, I'm a worshiper at the, at the CLV church, right? I totally am. Believe in that totally. How many times do

40:29you and I say head and up to that game when it moved to three? I'm like, I'm shocked to this move to three. Like, even someone who watches these markets all day long, like, like, we do, I do. God screen up all the time. I was floored that hit three. I was shocking. That's just like these tweets. First of all, my guys in the desert, 945, Pacific time for Fez and Scott side and Barry. We're not sure of 930 or 945. We're not sure on that. But it's going to be right around there. Dr. Vendos Strat ads. He goes as someone that has lived in my, in New York, my whole life today sucks. But that last 45 seconds with you and Fez was really my favorite moment on, on, on, on, he called it beating the book today. He means a numbers game. And you know, it's all over the place. K flo to second, Fez's points. One of my lifelong friends from elementary schools, father, who was an F, who was a fire department, New York Fire Department, Fire Marshall passed away several months ago from the effects of working at the World Trade Center post 9-11. The tragedy that Faithful Day continues to go on. Never forget. Man,

41:31never forget indeed. Yeah. You know, I'm bringing you don't want to bring it out a whole show. You know, but it's a significant day. It's a significant day. By the way, I want to wish everybody who celebrating a happy New Year, New Year, happy New Year tonight as well. I know that's on the calendar as well for some. So yeah, it's a, it's a pretty heavy day, pretty heavy day for sure. Thankfully, we live in this great country. We have sports to distract us. We have sports betting. That's what we're all about. We are absolutely grateful for for the lot in life that we all have. Here are my NFL futures. Once again, 49ers over nine and a half wins, which I loved as my favorite future of the offseason. That's off to a flying start. Nick Benito, Defense Player of the year, 14-1 Caleb Williams, passing yards, leader 20-1. My millions plays once again. I had the C-Hawks. That's a push in millions. I had the Niners. That's a win. I am on the Browns plus eight and a half. I'm on the Lions minus seven. I am on the Steelers minus three and a half in millions.

42:35Got all those. But as far as like the game plays, those are the two Thursday, Friday night, and the ones I like the most Seattle and San Francisco. So what do you think about million strategy now on the Steelers? Maybe that's it. Maybe that's, I think I got fortunate putting them in when I put in my plays and I think now everybody will not everybody, but a lot of people will have it. I know and that's where I'm wondering. I'm like, it's weak one. Probably shouldn't overthink it. But there's going to be a lot of people on that side. Yeah, two of by the way, I texted two, had not seen it practice. You were saying it today. And then there's the Steelers defeatist people like Todd who was just in here who's like, I wouldn't do it. I wouldn't play the Steelers. You know there's that crowd too. You know me. I keep going back and forth on it all week. As Aaron Rogers gives his opinion on everything outside. Sorry, I'm still not high on this team. And like I do think there are some pot everybody just I mean, it's like the Falcons can't play football. We haven't even played a week yet. But I get it. Like if two has actually heard it's a nightmare situation for them. I get that Red Sox and Blue Jays for September two wins behind the Dodgers and Pirates.

43:40Yes, Pirates. Step it up Red Sox and Blue Jays Red Sox 28 to one over William Hill Caesar's Blue Jays plus 23 25 over here at Circa for most wins this September again two wins behind the leaders. Kelly's all over the place though what you got. And a felt week one bucks bingles under 51 and a half minus 114. Jags Jets six point teaser. Jags Texans six point teaser. Kyler Murray 25 plus Russian yards plus 104. Cowboys lay in two and a half minus one 15 and the Broncos plus three minus 120 for Monday night football. And don't forget Dr. Bob on Monday to break it down. Break it down. New and Eastern nine Pacific. That's right on Monday after we do guessing lines week two. There you go our first guessing lines of the year. Or it might be I might be a bit of a break from guessing lines. Oh, we don't know. We haven't done in this in a year. Well, that's right. It will see. It's free flow and we could we could go on forever because we recap all the game. You know what I figured out it's it's it's sometimes great. Sometimes terrible. We have three hours for guessing lines. But it what it does offer us early in the season is plenty of time. If there's

44:41games we want to spend more time on guessing lines for those that don't know again a tradition unlike any other man, my Mishboko, Chrissy Andrews did it for years. Kelly and I have done it now for a couple of years at least I chase two three two three years. Yeah, where essentially we go over we recap the the Sunday games because obviously we've already done the Thursday and in this case Thursday and Wednesday and Thursday games. But we go over all the Sunday games while we then look forward to the matchups for the coming week. Kelly will give me the matchup. I will not know the spreads. I don't people think that's ridiculous. I seriously don't I'm so in my little tunnel vision of taking notes on these games all through the night. Then I just want to go to bed. So when I come in here, I don't know the numbers. Kelly will give me the matchup. I'll guess them. Kelly will tell me that the actual number are and within that exercise. And oftentimes it's this first reaction that's always the best because five days of the week that go on after that or six days. You kind of your brain kind of tells you other stories. No, but oftentimes within that exercise, you will get the

45:43best look at what is true value on the upcoming NFL game. I also think it's one of the greatest sacrifices you've made for your audience over over years. How about Chrissy? Chrissy would not put up the lines at the Southpoint till we were done. Okay, you're right. Chris even more than you, but like there's not a Sunday that goes by during the NFL season when I'm looking at openers where I'm just not thinking about you as well. I'm like, wow, you would love this. I hope it doesn't move for I appreciate it. I think about all the handle the collective handle Chrissy sacrifice. Oh, yeah, those years doing that. Um, Paul Car soccer bets. Chelsea, Hell City, both teams have scored no minus one 10. I'm going to go back to those Paul Car guys real quick back to the other ones. He's also on Liverpool, full them over three and a half goals, plus one 15, Arsenal win the nail at plus one 15 as well as three pack two. He was two and one on Champions League this week. He was two and one on the Prem last week as well. You kind of said it. I hope he goes two and one again in the whole city. I'm secretly hoping for that as long as he's winning. It's just keep

46:44winning. Uh, who's your bare 85 ads and kids, not many people out of touch with reality like Fez. He says Michael Harrison, thank you for the time stands this way. I know we're to fast forward too, so I don't have to. Okay. Uh, Chris, Felica, Texas, over a house, they take a text on the money on Mississippi state, plus one and a half against Minnesota. He's on temple, plus 24 and a half versus Penn State, Buffalo, FIU under 47 and a half, Duke Illinois under 51 and a half Liverpool, full them, both teams of score. Yes, minus 170. So there will not be a nil in the final score. And then finally, uh, oh, Dr. Bob, don't want to forget Dr. Bob came in here, Browns Jaguars under 40 and a half, little sticking a jab and move from dog from Dr. Bob on the show today. And then Steve Fezek had a bunch at the end. Uh, Ohio State, Texas under 49 and a half and he's on the Texans. Yep, plus one and a half against the bills. Here are his adjusted season wind totals as well. Falcons under seven and a half. You're going to lay the extra juice on these Browns under six and a half because he's moving the number minus one 90. Commanders under seven and a half minus 140. Panthers under seven and

47:44a half minus 160. Raiders under six and a half minus 175. Bang. football's back, baby. Enjoy. Good luck with all your bets. Week one Sunday in the NFL, all your college football as well. Prop points is next. Enjoy from V.C. V. Sports, Betty. Every game day you show up for your team. Now it's your time. Ask your prescriber about Wigovie, some Maglatide injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP one. Call 18334 Wigovie or visit Wigovie.com to view the medication guide and to learn more about Wigovie. Why wait? Still waiting in line? Again? That's time you'll never get back. Save time and money with stamps.com. Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps.com. Join them to save up to 90% off carrier rates from your computer or phone right now.

48:45Print postage for certified mail, registered mail, and packages in seconds. Then schedule a pick-up right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps.com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift. Taxes and fees apply.