4 - Not so, Hastie

Not so, Hastie, by Marcus Rubenstein.

Former S.A. soldier and leadership aspirant,

Liberal Front Bencher Andrew Hastie has made a move towards the top job in his party,

and his run may well-proved it been brilliantly timed in the context of the long game.

In speaking out against the Iran War,

his broken ranks with his fellow conservatives in the Liberal Party,

while also setting himself far apart from the Albanese government.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his key leadership team members

were falling over themselves to endorse the Netanyahu Trump bombing of Iran.

Hastie is warning against support for the war.

It's fallout, economic impact, and, perhaps most significantly,

the rhetoric of Donald Trump.

Uncomfortable dependency.

On Sunday, Hastie told the ABCs inside his program,

quote,

the US went to war without consulting allies,

and a lot of American allies are dependent upon the exploitation of hydrocarbons

out of the Middle East.

And so, we are experiencing the economic pain now,

particularly in this country, end quote.

Hastie says he stands by his support of the decision by the US and Israel

to conduct a 12-day bombing of Iran in June 2025,

when asked by host David Spears if he supports the latest war he replied, quote,

well, I don't know why we went in now.

There wasn't consultation with allies because had we had a bit more lead time,

we wouldn't be in the current crisis we are now, end quote.

Hastie prefaced his comments with the usual we support America rhetoric

and would not be drawn into characterizing Iran as another forever war.

It's a relevant point because, as an army officer,

Hastie undertook multiple operational tours of Afghanistan,

and he knows what a forever war looks like.

The US-led coalition went into Afghanistan,

overthrew the Taliban, and when they withdrew,

20 years and $3.4 trillion later,

the Taliban was replaced by the Taliban.

Iran has shut off the oil routes in the Strait of Hormuz,

and that is strangling the global economy.

The US attacks were poorly thought out, poorly executed,

and there is no clear exit strategy.

It is also clear the Aya Tolas will not be replaced

as supreme leaders of Iran's theocratic state.

As for the threat of nuclear weapons,

the USA's own intelligence assessments say Iran does not have,

and it was not pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

Though in some respects, Hastie did, on insiders,

choose his words carefully.

It is clear he has articulated his position on this war sufficiently

to be on the right side of history when it's finally over.

With Labour's big parliamentary majority,

Hastie might be content to let Angus Taylor

lead the Liberals to another election loss in 2028.

If he then makes a leadership move,

he can paint himself as a clean skin,

who opposed the war and Trump's contemptuous comments about Australia,

and was a vocal critic of Australia's unpreparedness

from Middle East oil shock.

Early sharp rebuke for Trump.

Hastie was on the front foot,

as the pain of the Trump Netanyahu Iran war began to hit.

Finding himself isolated from his allies,

Trump lashed out at NATO powers Korea Japan and Australia

for not joining a US-led naval exercise

to seize the Strait of Hormuz from Iran.

It was a typical Trump outburst,

which Hastie was quick to label as petulant.

When asked,

Albanese wouldn't be drawn into the comments,

saying he is pursuing diplomacy with Trump.

But how do you deal diplomatically

with the most undiplomatic US president in history?

It's easy to shout from the opposition benches,

but Hastie's calculation is pretty good.

When he makes his inevitable leadership run,

both the Iran war and Trump's presidency will be over.

Withdrawing from harsh criticism,

by the weekend,

he had moderated his earlier position,

but notably he didn't apologize for it.

Hastie didn't pull back completely in his interview with insiders,

saying, quote,

we can be critical of bad strategic decisions.

I think this was a huge miscalculation by Trump.

Iran has managed to pretty much hold the whole world economy to ransom.

End quote.

The question is,

has Hastie made a good strategic decision

and will the global pain become his electoral gain?