#194 - What Will Be The Bottom For BTC?

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In this new episode, Matthew sits down with Joe Consorti, the head of growth at Thayer and one of the few macro analysts who accurately mapped the 2022 Bitcoin bottom, to unpack why Bitcoin’s current drop isn’t signalling what most retail investors think it is.

What you’ll learn:

◼️ Why Bitcoin bottoms take time and how the 12–16 month cycle window works

◼️ The importance of the 200‑week moving average and why BTC often finds its floor within 5–10% of it

◼️ How whales, long‑term holders and ETFs are signalling that the bottom is close

◼️ Why smart money increases accumulation before the bottom, not at the exact low

◼️ The strategy Joe recommends for navigating volatility with confidence

Timestamps:

00:00:00 - Introduction

00:01:02 - Is the Bitcoin Low In?

00:01:13 - Factors Influencing Bitcoin Bottoms

00:02:06 - Timing the Bitcoin Bottom

00:02:37 - 200-Week Moving Average

00:03:09 - Historical Context of Bitcoin Bottoms

00:04:02 - Impact of FTX Collapse

00:04:49 - Potential for Another Leg Down

00:05:00 - Four-Year Cycle and Bitcoin Halving

00:06:17 - Supply Shock and Market Psychology

00:07:09 - Predictability of Bitcoin Cycles

00:08:32 - Long-Term Holder Realized Price

00:09:25 - Smart Money and Long-Term Holders

00:10:53 - Historical Ranging Periods

00:12:07 - Expected Bottom Range

00:13:00 - Whale Accumulation

00:14:07 - Whale and Long-Term Holder Behavior

00:15:09 - Largest Ever Whale Accumulation

00:16:03 - Long-Term Holder Net Position Change

00:17:58 - Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows

00:18:41 - ETF Buying Behavior

00:20:17 - ETF Outflows and Inflows

00:21:09 - Three Major On-Chain Signals

00:22:01 - Smart Money Accumulation Strategy

00:23:08 - Timing the Bottom

00:24:00 - Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy

00:25:16 - Investment Strategy for Large Sums

00:27:08 - Decision Matrix for Allocation

00:28:19 - Long-Term Perspective on Bitcoin Price

00:28:46 - Potential Positive Black Swan Events

00:29:29 - Geopolitical Game of Bitcoin Accumulation

00:30:36 - US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

00:31:47 - Global Trust and Bitcoin

00:32:33 - BRICS Nations and Bitcoin

00:33:44 - Bitcoin Arms Race

00:34:47 - US Military and Bitcoin

00:35:08 - Introduction to Hard Money Room

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**DISCLAIMER**

This is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. I'm not a licensed advisor. Bitcoin and SMSF strategies can carry significant risks; consult a qualified tax accountant and SMSF specialist before making any decisions. I may earn affiliate commissions from links I share, but this doesn't affect your cost.