10/1 goalscorer bet | Football…Only Bettor

0:00West Hammer on the charge in the Premier League, they might just be able to pull off an escape that seemed unthinkable just a couple of months ago this weekend that take a break from the old grind of the relegation battle as they look to reach the course of finals of the FA Cup, standing in their way a Brentford team that is very much impressed in the Premier League and will surely fancy a swing, Crystal Palace style at a major trophy. I'm Kevin Hatchard and this is football only better. I've got football's answer to the great seers of Greek antiquity with me today, starting with Sky Sports, Lewis Jones, Lewis for West Ham, again that surely is not a priority, but for Brentford it absolutely should be. Yeah, really interesting fixture this because I'm quite torn actually on this and I think West Ham are potentially being underrated by the market. I can totally see why the market is favouring Brentford away from home in this

1:01spot because they have obviously can put everything into this game. While West Hammer got much bigger fish to fry so to speak back in the Premier League, but I think we've got to start putting some respect and celebrate the job that Nuno Espirito Santo is doing at West Ham. An absolute masterstroke from the hierarchy really, it's turned out, probably their only masterstroke among many failed decisions over the years, I would argue, but he has done a sensational job and I've I think this West Ham team now, and they're at full strength, are potentially performing at the same level as what Forest were at the peak of their power's last season. Results aren't showing but I do think the underlying numbers and the eye test are showing so many positive signs for West Ham because since they've lost, was it at Wolves in early January, played eleven games, one six drawn to lost three, that doesn't jump off the page fair enough, but if you actually dig

2:02a little deeper into the performances and some of the fine margins that have actually gone against them, I think we're seeing this West Ham team starting to play at maybe a top eight, top six sort of level, Premier League team in the division now, just looking at some of the examples here, lost the Forest didn't they at home when they were the better team. Stupid like, yeah had a goal just allowed when the game would have been theirs for the taking and then that stupid penalty decision with Iriola punching someone in the face, that went against them, they battered Chelsea in the first half at Stanford Bridge and lost their head slightly in a second half, but that can happen against a good attacking outfit like Chelsea, that was a late goal that cost them there. I only went down to a last minute equaliser versus Manchester United after winning the XG battle, Manchester United third in the league and only suffered their first defeat under Carrick, so that was a massive performance. Drew with Bournemouth Niel Niel, that doesn't look great on paper, look at the underlying data there, create a nearly three expected goals, somehow foul to score, were comfortably the better team having having watched that game myself and they've just beaten full of my way, which is always a very

3:05difficult fixture for any team in the Premier League to go to. So I think what Nuno has done here in the last three months is sort of managerial year potential, really, to go in there and save West Ham from the situation they were in and get them playing at this level because they were such a mess under Graham Potter defensively, they were conceding goals, such soft goals with a centre of the pitch every week, they carried no attacking threat whatsoever under the Graham Potter and almost with the same squad, maybe a couple of January options, additions in Tatti and Pablo's when he's fit and the sassy's coming and done well, he's turned them into a, I think he has to say top eight top six Premier League team, they're creating 2.05 expected goals per 90 over the past 11 games, that is a ridiculous figure amongst the figure and I'm just thinking Nuno is just showing now what a seriously good operator he is, if you take away the spurs then he's been a roaring success wherever he's been but I mean spurs can show they can do that to more or less anyone in World Football so I think we can give him a pass for not turning that

4:05football cover round so and a unbelievable job there, they're now 2.6 for relegation, they were 1.2 at one point, they were matched on the exchange for very small money at 1.2 so yeah I just wanted to sing his praises really and sort of put him up there with the likes of Oliver Glasner and Marco Silver as sort of pound for pound one of the best managers in World Football I think and just going back to this fixture if you were offering me 2.1 on West Ham double chance in a Premier League match at home against Brentford I think I would be all over that price 2.1 on West Ham double chance to avoid defeat but as this is the FA Cup fifth round isn't it, games can be played in a bit of a soulless ball atmosphere I think at the stadium, it's not going to be that well attended I don't think very much a kids for a quid vibe I think about it I think it's not really a fixture that West Ham need right now but even though Nudo is expected to rotate probably bowing and some of it will be given a breather and this is a great chance for Brentford to make the quarterfinals totally get that I think Brentford are too short here and I'm so uncomfortable

5:07back in them when they're favourites because I think there's loads of evidence to suggest they are a better team when they are the underdog very much set piece orientated they like to counter attack and I'm never convinced that they can really rip you open from open players well as other teams in the league and just the evidence some of these results that they put together I mean they fell over the line against Burnley when they were favourites lost at home to Brighton when they were well backed lost at home to Forrest when they were well backed drew against Spurs when favourites and actually lost at the top them hot spurs stadium can you believe to Spurs which is now looking like it does that it was exactly that turned out to be an absolute shock or a result hasn't it so lots of examples I mean they only just fell over the fell over the line they were very edgy against Shrewsbury in the last round as well one one Neil and they're really porting Shrewsbury so I get what a market has Brentford favourites here about 2.3 on the exchange but that isn't the price I want to play here and I'm hoping Nuno just keeps a couple of the big guns on the bench like he did against Burton in the last round where you have to bring on Somerville, Dessassi and Taty in the sort of final 30 minutes

6:08just to get the get the job done because I think if that happens we might and then Westammer still in the game we might see a shift in the in the performance level and we'll keep Westam in this game so I think the market is factoring too much how much this is an important game for Brentford rather than Westam I'm just looking at it from a current form perspective Westammer to my eyes top eight top six Premier League team when they're at it yes they might be a little bit below that but I think the fact we can get them here a plus a quarter at 1.9 on the bit on the bit on the bit for exchange so we've got half stakes on Toronto bit half stakes on the double chance it's it's on the win when when when you look at this this this game on paper you just think well it's obviously a Brentford win because they they've got more to play for but football doesn't work like that and I think this Westam team are capable on their day of putting in big performances and I think they're being underrated by the market is so yeah very pro Westam on the Monday night game trader and tips to extraordinary Emmett O'Keefe is with us Emmett you want to take a look at full-on game against

7:10Southampton in the FA Cup I mean this is enormous I feel for full-on a Marco Silver because we've seen solidity season after season after season they're looking I think to reach the FA Cup course of finals for the third season in four or something like that I mean this is this is a team that feels like it kind of needs a palace style run just to underline what Marco Silver has been doing for a while yeah I I think in terms of like silvers maybe job prospects or how he's remembered a full-on that might be the case but I feel like even full-on full-on having this kind of mid-table stars with the squad they've had over the last year I think it's a brilliant achievement like I think the I think the full-on goacher at the full-on team it's not they're not a well-backed team they have very few star players I think just like he's I think it's like I think it's a really underrated job whether the footballer's silver's playing could scale up to a bigger club could it be like a Thomas Frank 2.0 potentially I think it's it's it might be that this is silver's level but

8:12there's there's worse things than being a guy you can guess maybe kind of a David Moise type manager where you can get a middle middle ranking club and really elevate them and consistently get them they're performed they're kind of budget and ability I think that's that that's that's that's still a guy you'd want I think if you're a Premier League if you're if you're a Premier League chairman when if one cell was at a contract and presumably leaves full-on I think if you're a mid-ranking club and he's someone you could hire and he is like the kind of safe safe pair of hands that can consistently elevate your club for this weekend I know it's kind of a hot topic but I was actually looking at this this is just for a bit of background this should be a very high scoring game like in in button in the in the for both both teams like 60% of their match of their matches are going over 2.5 goals set Hampton's games are consistently some of the highest score in the championship they've actually been 21 goals in Stampton's last four matches in all competitions and Stampton's are coming into the game actually playing really well like since Tonda Eckert took over

9:13from Will Still and it's like a sample of 24 games they're averaging just under two points per game which is like basically nearly automatic promotion form so I think this will be a 12 test for a full-on but the angle I like was just to maybe exploit every Stampton's weakness from defending set pieces they're bottom five in the championship and set peace goals conceded and this scenario full-on can exploit full-on don't have necessarily a real stand out candidate like kind of a Malik Thier or Gabrielle but the one I like is Calvin Bassie he's as he's six shots in his last six matches and in his last six starts for full-on and he's also score he scored in those last six matches as well and he's these full-ons biggest biggest set peace threshold and he's currently 10 to one with sports book score any time but I think you you you would have to be able to get close to 13 point down the exchange looks nice back to me the day to Dr. Jake Olskethore has been getting the X-T robot ready for the final stretch of the season Jake you want to look at

10:13Sunderland away at Port Vale yeah this is obviously just one of the bigger mismatches in the in the FA Cup obviously Mansfield Arsenal's one of the other ones but Port Vale bottom of league one against top half Premier League Sunderland and getting more of a prize play than anything Sunderland Winter Nill is seven to five with sports book and the same bet was 13 to 8 in the last round when he played away Oxford who were like literally a league above Port Vale so I just thought that that wasn't a big enough drop in prize from 13 to 8 to 7 to 5 to reflect the difference in level between Port Vale and Oxford and you factor in that we know Sunderland are going to take this competition very seriously they're safe in the Premier League they've got to 40 points they don't have a midweek match following this they've got a full week rest afterwards so they should be playing a full strength team and we saw the defensive salinity as well in midweek in full flow I mean they they limited leads very very well in a way that very few teams have

11:14actually managed Elham Road so I think they're very well placed to turn up to the the bottom side in league one and keep it clean she and edge out another one Nill 2 Nill win and the price I think dictates everything doesn't it and seven to five is is too big in my book even if Port Vale have picked up recently in terms of their results they're not one of played against a team of this caliber and even if someone do bring in a few players off that didn't start last in midweek you're talking granite jacka Wilson easy doors could could come in it's not bad players to bring in to but to rotate a little bit so yeah I think Sunderland Winter Nils are cracking better 7 to 5 if your player goes off your bet still on with bet fairs safe sub valid on selected leagues and markets only more information can be found in the description the Milan Derby is always a fascinating affair me land the closest challenges to enter but the truth is Emma into so far clear at the top that actually unless me land win this and even if they do it looks like it's into

12:17Scudetta this season for sure yeah I think it's literally the best team in the Italian league but I think hopefully they won't be the the best team on this on this night like it's always something I I kind of I think the kind of a discussion in in couldn't niche football in our circles of which I'm one is how much is home advantage worth in the Milan Derby when you've got the obviously isn't Milan or normally the home team but like even if they get the home ticket allocation how many intro fans will actually be there obviously the in terms of like things like generally is it is believed by research to be that the crowd noise has the by far the biggest impact on home advantage and I'm not sure you're going to get like you might have maybe 75% AC Milan 25% in Tramalan but it won't be the kind of typical overwhelming home advantage is that that that you that that you'd see in in a small shoved AC Milan Serie A matches by still think there will be so much for AC Milan Milan in that sense and I just my main angle here is just I don't think the

13:18market is downgrade is in turn off for the absence of Latura Martinez that's so Latura was by far the top score in Serie A this season and just I the way interplay so Inter had by far the most crosses in Serie A so the Inter averaging 25 crosses per game the set the team in second in terms of crosses as only averaging 20 that's a that's a really significant drop off a list of his mind and watch some of the Inter Bodo glimps game and to be honest Inter were kind of aimlessly slingshot in crosses in box and it wasn't a very optimal approach in that scenario I just think it just stood out to me dash if you're playing that way they needs Latura was kind of ball winning ability in the air and they won't they won't have that the weekends within the are significantly weakened we've seen their results can drop off a bit they they they were very poor in their weeks and kind of away away match a combo in terms their shot I put in general performance level so and as you

14:19said as well given given given where the way that the table lies here I think Inter will actually be relatively happy with the points so I just think I think they given lash Inter around 2.25 in the exchange to win the match in a match where they'll be happy with the draw to kind of keep keep that gap but not at the top I just think laying Inter makes makes too much sense hearing they just look quite a big price I think they'll actually settle settle for a draw in in this match let's take it to the championship Middlesbrough desperate for a return to the premier league after a long absence they make the chip to West London Lewis to take on QPR yes the big game of the championship this for Middlesbrough I think always really hiding up now is it this promotion race involving commentary yep switch and Middlesbrough and potentially Millwall as well so it should be exciting into the season as always and yeah moves were hit form just at the right time and they since this new guys come in manager Kim Helberg we took over from Rob Edwards no team have taken

15:21more points the Middlesbrough in that period of time 36 points which is the same as hips switch so yep completely see why they've been able to put this sort of run together because they've been the most impressive team based on the key metrics as well like extra against is the top shots they ranked top four during that time progressive passes possession they firmly deserve to be where they are and they're just I think they're just five points off commentary now at the top with hips switch at one point below them I think and four ahead of Millwall so yeah they're very complete team not many weaknesses really and they're the best player in the league I think in Hayden Hackney who they've managed to get the best out of this season and then he sort of leads the charge for them on a weekly basis really really talented play we play in the Premier League potentially with Miller's run X season or potentially you'll get a move to in the summer I think and then we got QPR as well who are just doing QPR things this season really looks like going to be the eleventh straight season in the championship where it ends with no promotion push or a relegation

16:26threat so a 15th again or lay or lay I think is the is the chance is some yeah it's been since they've been relegated for the Premier League it's been quite a tough watch for the regulars Loftus Road in terms of hope and excitement but the most frustrating part is I think they're actually a bit of an exciting team lurking there at Loftus Road but they're just so much inconsistencies and especially injuries as well to key players and the Nicholas Madsen's now injured who's been their best player this season then Belay's been out for most of the season they're not sure he's going to be back for before the end of the campaign Ilias chair as well been their main player for a few seasons now the hasn't played since December Poccus been out since January Roman Burrell's out as well I mean they just named five players there probably would start across all the front across the front line there so you can see where their problems are they constantly losing players to injury and they need to sort that out if they want to get any sort of consistency in this league so yeah Middlesbrough heavy favorites here 2.1 to win at Loftus Road I can see the

17:27potential in that can that be quite popular but good I'm going to swerve that because the bet that really appeals here is the goals line over 2.5 goals in QPR home games is becoming a bit of a staple bet right now because their home games this season have average 3.3 goals per 90 and they've been 29 goals scored in their games 26 conceded so the average is really high and they're just a very easy team to score against at home they've got such issues with their goalkeeper QPR I think a save ratio is by far the worst in the league and this is despite using multiple goalkeepers this season they're expected goals against record as well I mean they've conceded 26 goals this season from an XG against of only 16 so there's a 10 dollars swing which is a really poor figure at home and that is leading to goal heavy games and it's consistently happened now over the whole of the season so I want to get goals on side in QPR home games where I can because 12 of the last 13 have gone over 2.5 yet the market has priced the over 2.5 here as the outsider in the market we can get

18:29around even money here for over 2.5 goals which staggered me to be honest I'm not sure how the the market has come come to that final destination really but I'm sure it's going to shorten before the before kickoff so if you can get anywhere near even money on over 2.5 I think it's a really good bet because I mean borough have got the capabilities to clear this line just on their own nothing with the way that they've been playing away from home and their last six away games have all gone over 2.5 goals as well so this is so much evidence here to suggest that this price is is really really generous and even if you look at the reverse fixture that was played early this season the riverside minutes were one three one there were three near up inside 50 minutes where the XG total at that point was 2.2 to 0.1 it was a real battering for the first 50 minutes and QPR mains to just create some chances and get back in get a goal when the game state was was completely really over for me as well who put their feet up so yeah I like this bet because I think we're really strong favorites here and they could clear this line on their own based on QPR's defensive record at home but QPR always good as well got some

19:32good players going forwards they could add to the scoring so yeah I just think even money to over 2.5 is a big price and if you can get on at anywhere near those odds I would watch you can before the market reacts I think and Jake you've got selection from this one as well yeah man I was just burrow to win I think they're a bigger price than it should be really 2.06 Lewis has made made a great case for burrow to win but without actually tipping burrow to win yeah I like the overs I won't be surprised burrow win and overs I'm going to be of extra juice combine the two but yeah all the all the metrics under Helberg have been excellent I mean Rob Edwards is getting a lot applaud it's recently for his work of wolves but Helberg's making him look very second rate for his work at Middlesbrough with a very similar squad obviously brought many a few additions in January but yeah very very strong second unexpected point second for expected goals against third for expected goals before since he took charge and like Lewis said QPR missing loads of key players they've lost four the last six home games one of the games they didn't lose was again Sheffield Wednesday surprise surprise and and burrow they've won four the last

20:36five away with their own the defeat coming at leaders Coventry so I think there's there's a lot to like and burrow were really good on Monday against Birmingham as well there were a much better team than QPR that was that's an Andrews so yeah burrow to win but for me odds again I think that price will count it'll be odds on by the time we get to kick off now the pros have their tools with bet fair so do you I'll say for gambling tools work just like the right pair of boots designed to keep you on top of your game equip yourself so you can bet at your best for more information visit be gamble aware dot org let's take it to La Liga Jake you've seen something in vrl against lcha vrl smacked by barcelona at last weekend lamina malgod is first La Liga hat trick against them uh what have you seen in their game against lcha uh yeah I mean I think Beloray I live in a win um I mean I look at lcha's away record suggests that's not far fetched idea um lost eight of twelve this season away from home lcha they are winless away from home um but as you mentioned last week Beloray I got hammered by barcelona they've actually been

21:39conceding a lot of goals recently Beloray and I think that um yeah the price of Beloray I'll to win is really really short but by adding both teams to score we get a very very uh juicy looking two to one and um yeah I think this is got this is a serious run I mean lcha they create plenty in attack more home the their expected goals process at home when lcha play uh is very very good away from home is not as good but they still scored in ten of the twelve away matches this season um and vrl won five of the last seven at home they did lose twice in that run both to barcelona and realm of druid but four of the five home wins have come with them conceding with the only game they kept a clean sheet was against catefe who apart from scoring against realm druid don't seem to do very much um so yeah I thought that the the the price jumped from a Beloray I'll win um to uh Beloray I'll win and both teams to score was just too big really I think that the both teams to score has got a better chance than the price uh suggest here and yeah big price

22:40something to cheer on maybe a three one or four one Beloray I'll win uh leads against Norwich Lewis back in the FA Cup leads are in a tricky spot the moment aren't they because the teams below them have started picking up points west ham have been on the charge we said that at the top obviously forest picked up that point uh Manchester City and a few weeks ago I thought lead to be okay I still think they probably will but it doesn't look a certain so is that a worry for them going into this game against Norwich are they maybe going to rotate more than people think yeah 100% I don't need to add any more to that care thanks very much so lately lately on the nose and thanks for listening um yeah it's amazing how the narrative can shift so quickly isn't it I mean two defeats on the spin for leads one winning seven in the Premier League and now the time recording three points above the trop zone I mean from being sort of safe from relegation having no issues whatsoever their prices doing a bit of a top them and um collapsing uh week by week and I suppose the um that sort of pressure back in the

23:44Premier League now as you mentioned is gives them a lack of breathing space now and I suppose they're going to have to really not sacrifice the FA Cup but definitely not put as much importance on on this competition now because they got to go to palace um in the game after this one next week and I know there's a lot of a lot of days rest between each games but this is where you don't really want to risk any of your key players in the game um that let's be honest is Daniel Farca really going to lose much sleep if he if he if he gets knocked out of the of the FA Cup and if I mean the the prospect of getting through this game and potentially adding more minutes to the legs of your players and then just getting drawn to Arsenal away in the next round and going out anyway in the court finals I know that's not killer isn't yeah it's not with the killer I'm sorry to just to to piss all over the magic of the FA Cup again because we've done that a lot today but that just seems like what the case is for Daniel Farca here as well and he's not really got a a very good record in cup competitions as it as it stands I mean guess what they lost to in the car about cut this season kev can you guess they got knocked out

24:45the car about cup to who Jay oh chef will Wednesday good called Wednesday they got knocked out in the cards which is it should be amazing disband the club exactly and he's just in that competition in his the last eight car about cup matches he's only one two of them Daniel Farca FA Cup of the FA Cup last season lost a meal wall in the fourth round after struggling past harrigate one meal in the third round and there's his time at Norwich obviously who is there who are they're opponents at Ellen Road so a bit of a Daniel Farca Darby here and they were both they were knocked out to both Portsmouth and Barnsley when they were sort of really heavy odds on to to win both those games at Norwich as well so there is some evidence and history of Daniel Farca just potentially chucking away the FA Cup when the the the time is right and I think rotation mass rotation is probably going to be expected here just from a sort of trying to predict what a manager is going to do and it went very good in the last round actually a way at Birmingham I mean they scraped through on penalties and then I guess the last thing Daniel Farca is going to want to go for two extra time etc etc and try and and it's just a game I'm not sure that he wants

25:49really and I think they're very short pricey leads I think there's a it's a good chance they're going to make loads of changes the likes of non-so Daniel James long staff Tanaka probably Piro as well we're all going to come in very good players are not bad squad is it I mean you reel off that list it's not bad squad that's not bad but is it too much above championship level I'm not certain and the main thing I the problem is when you make changes isn't the level the players bring in is the lack of rhythm is the lack of game time that these players have had in the and recent weeks is very difficult for them to for them to to to gel so I think this is a really dangerous fixture for leads at home here this is where the the the the big upset of the weekend might happen because knowledge at the moment under Philip Climon are flying aren't they really since he's been since he's taken over he's he's done a great job to get them away from the relegation zone last 11 games have one nine of those beaten rex and win Coventry in that time and what I really like is I've scored 2.5 goals per game in that 11 game run I mean there they're a team that are

26:50really comfortable at the moment they they're not going to fear going to Ellen Road they've really got nothing to lose and the carrot of sort of making a an FA Cup quarter final for for a championship team should really be a top of their gender now between yet now in the end of the season now relegation isn't isn't a problem so I'd hope to think that he's going to go all out for this here Climon and Daniel Farco is probably going to rest a few limbs and they'll just it just stinks of a cups of an upset how they almost said cup set their kev just to ignore you would have down from the rest of the season exactly yeah I've learned from I'm not going down the Marco here route I'll never ever do that that would be no no no damage into my persona and my character so yeah huge huge chance for an upset here this week I mean you've got two ways in I think in the 90 minutes market you can back knowledge double chance 2.8 I think that's big I think when the team lose comes out that probably short and or you can just lay leads on the nose at 1.5 5 on the exchange and yeah probably I would just wait for team news potentially and maybe just take a hit

27:54on the price here a little bit because I just want to I would rather get involved with knowledge if they go strong and leads week a week and slightly so team news orientated but I think there could be problems on her eyes and the effect up for leads but whether that's actually a problem getting knocked out I'm not I don't think Daniel Farco would see it that way so it's really interesting picture this and I think the prices are very much in favor of getting knowledge on side and we're going to finish with Italy struggling for Rona make the trip to Belonia Jake I think struggling is a bit of an understatement just a bit yeah I was sure they are kind yeah you tried yeah they they I mean in Premier League terms they are walls but without a resurgence and yeah they they travel to Belonia who I mean they had a rot of run after this Italian Super Cup they won just two or 12 in all competitions it really fell apart for them consider 21 goals in that time but they're a real wake up call the last five matches they've tightened the screws they've been very very difficult to beat the conceding very few chances they won five straight in all competitions

28:58and all of the last four have come to nil and I think there's a very good chance of a repeat I mean those five matches that Belonia have won in a row they've conceded just 2.5 expected goals in total so they are really really tight at the back and now get to face the worst team in the league in Verona who are winners in 13 10 defeats in that run failed to score in five of those 10 and this bet would have won in three of Rona's last six away games despite them playing five teams that are in the bottom half the table so yeah Verona not very good and then the other thing we factor in Belonia do play midweek in the Europa League next week but they don't have to travel because they've won all Italian tie and they are at home in that first leg against Roma so I don't expect too much resting and rotation I think it'll be a pretty full strength team for Belonia trying to get some momentum into that game against Roma that first leg so yeah comfortable Belonia win and both of you to score no you're looking around six to four on the sports well if you might get a bit bigger on the exchange and yeah I think I think the price is a little bit too big

30:02until we have time for on this edition of Football Only Blast better please do remember to gamble responsibly loads great articles notebooks galore on our website betting.betfair.com loads of good stuff on there and we'll be back on Monday with the usual European previews of course Champions League is back it never really went away from Jake from Lewis from Emma and from me it's goodbye for now