Tottenham’s must-win match | Football…Only Bettor

0:00Roberto DeZerobe's past will collide with his present this weekend as Tottenham face informed Brighton. Spurs in the relegation zone desperate for a win, can the fiery Italian get a demoralised and dejected group of players to believe in survival? I'm Kevin Hatchard, and this is football only better. No dejection among my top tipping teams, starting with Marco Eier, Tottenham beaten at Sunderland in DeZerobe's first game in charge. That was always going to be a tough one. Did we see any shoots of recovery whatsoever? They weren't bad. They just weren't good. Yeah, they're right in at the moment. I have to say there is to do, isn't that not good? I'd be honest, I didn't see a huge amount of difference in their approach or their performance at Sunderland last week. I was actually quite disappointed, a little bit underwhelmed as well. DeZerobe understandably came out afterwards and said, or pre-match and said,

1:03he couldn't change too much tactically in such a short period of time. I get that. He wanted to focus on personality and attitude of his players. He said, and they competed, they played okay, slightly unfortunate to concede that goal, but I thought their response to falling behind was pretty abject actually and just unable to build any momentum and quite wasteful. The usual poor decision making, not enough craft or guile in attacking areas, no bravery on the ball, just a team that looked crippled by confidence or lack of confidence. Yeah, and then also unlucky with the Romero injury. I guess it was the kind of game you see from a team who are going to get relegated. That's not a sort of moan at spurs. I've seen enough support in QPR. I've seen my team relegated enough times to know what, when you see a team that's going to get relegated, these kind of things happen where your captain just gets a serious injury getting pushed over his goalkeeper and kind of conceding a defected goal like that. It can happen. I'm not a massive Romero supporter, but he is an influence on this team and he will be missed. He is the captain

2:04and when he does play alongside Vandervene, they are better in defense. I looked at Tottenham's last 100 Premier League games of which Romero has played in 61 of those and with him, they average 1.33 points per game. 38% win rate, not great, but without him, points per game drops to 0.85. The win rate drops to 23%, but loss rate increases from 42% to 62%. Spurs or a better team with Christian Romero in defense. He's now missing. Vicario is still missing as well, whilst all the attackers. This is a team who have not won a league games since December, two managers ago, four months ago. Of course, I've got no real interest in backing them here, even at quotes close to two to one, especially as I've not mentioned the updated stats on Spurs in the home games in the Premier League. We're now looking at a team that's won four home league games in the last 30. They've kept six clean sheets in the last 55 home Premier League games. It's generationally bad stuff here. They just so happen to claim to Serbia's former side now, a bright team who seems to have found form of late and aren't thinking about the beach yet.

3:07They're looking for European qualification. Hutsler has come out and said that. I quite like his is approach here, kind of being quite as brash about their approach and wanting to continue to try and clinch a European position. I thought it was quite interesting. There's been some character comparisons between he and Serbia this week, because the Germans now had 70 games, 70 league games in charge of Brighton. He's actually won 10 points more than the Serbia had at this stage in his Brighton reign as well. That surprised me. It wasn't long ago, he was looking close to being sort of sacked. Supporters are growing frustrated with him, but he's got a handle back on his team. They're square pegs, back in square holes, defensively, I think they're much more capable of absorbing opposition pressure without crumbling, and they're clicking again in the final third. I think Mintei and Kelioglua are linking up really well on the left. You've got Gomez and Hensha Wood playing quite effective roles in the middle, well back leading the line quite well at Mitoma, making an impact from the bench. I know Dunk is suspended here, but I think they're able to handle this Tottenham team, and the market agrees with Brighton priced around six to four to win this game away from home. They have one three on

4:07the spin away without conceding. They have only lost four of 24 against teams outside of the top five as well. I looked at away league games under Herzler and Brighton have scored in 30-35. I'm looking at Brighton here off a zero. We'll start at 185 with that record in mind. Knowing Spurs might require at least two goals to be Brighton. That's something they've managed only three times since early December in the Premier League, scoring twice or more. Chuck in Spurs is dreadful home records. The multitude of problems on and off the field right now. I think they're easily posed again and also worth a look in the cards market. We haven't got prices yet, but Stuart Atwell isn't charged here. He is the best card giver in the Premier League this season for more than 16 of 20 Premier League games. 75% of Spurs matches have gone four cards and more at the Tottenham Hospital Stadium. Brighton away days average five cards per game as well. You've got Spurs fighting for the lives of Brighton openly admitting they were playing for European football here. I think there's plenty on the line and I think a sort of tense atmosphere around Spurs might be super nice. The Master of the Sustainable Edge, a man who delights in

5:11backing overs, wherever the Zeraby goes is Mark Stinchham Stinchham. No, this isn't one of your listed games, but I just wanted to get your take on Zeraby because if Spurs lose this, he's a great coach, I believe. I think there's a lot of problems that come with him in terms of how long he's going to stick around and who he might wind up along the way, but if Spurs lose this, the panic really starts to set in, doesn't it? I think the panic's already setting in. No, we've discussed their remaining fixtures last weekend, obviously now in the relegation zone. Two points adrift from safety. They're now odds on to be relegated at 17 to 20 and I wasn't sure there was too many positives to take from that Sunderland defeat. I mean, they were outpossessed by Sunderland who averaged the fifth-lowest possession in the league and they were obviously leading the game for a portion of that. Spurs created just one big chance from only 11 shots. Spurs wasn't really a lot to get excited about. Mark's mentioned Christian Ramirez absence,

6:15that's alarming. Spurs have got the worst home record in the league. I mean, that's extraordinary, isn't it really? Worst and Burnley. Worst and Wolves. It is crazy. They've lost 20 games at home since the beginning of the last season. If the players weren't feeling it, the fans certainly are. So I don't think it's a great place right now to try and get the points that they need to to ultimately stay up and with Brighton having won five of their last six games, yet fully on board with Brighton drawn a bet here at 1.85 as the way to go. And last but not least, the man who's happy to take on the bets that others find distasteful. If it's unders or it's nil nil at half time or nil nil at full time, he's there ready to sit through games praying for boredom like a maniac. So you don't have to. It's Sky Sports Lewis, Jones Lewis, how's this one going to go? Well, we were hatching here to start. I've drawn a bet Brighton. I mean, this is just staring here in the face, isn't it? This price 1.85

7:17or whatever. It's just a no brainer, isn't it? So it's an absolutely brilliant price to take. I'm just Mark mentioned there that the fact they've only won four of their last 30 home games. That means about the same number of managers in that time as well, which is just sums up the situation perfectly. I think it's just a perfect storm for this relegation. I think for Todd, well, I think it's going to happen because I think they're going to need about eight points from their remaining games here to stay up, just looking at the averages and what West Ham look like they're going to achieve in forest of Cape Oleg up Burnley. I think this weekend, I don't know. So that's more or less a gimmie three points. They're going to need to get eight points from Brighton, Wolves, Villa, Leeds, Chelsea and Everton. I just can't see any way where this team can be galvanized to find their form and pick up that many points because I just find the absolutely bonkers they've hired Roberta Deserby actually. This spur side in this current sort of configuration, I don't think is capable of delivering what Deserby wants from

8:18a tactical point of view. I mean, they can barely string a pass together and probably put their boots on the right feet at the moment. Let alone sort of bait the press and learn these new tactical flashy ideas. I just think this is such a time for basics and when they're matches, you've just got to go out there, win second balls, defenders are you in it, try and slowly gain some confidence, but yeah, I think the spur's hierarchy of just completely neglected their duty here and can completely. Well, a bit long-term Lewis, away at Lincoln, this stuff's going to work really, really well. Yeah, sure, Deserby's going to stick around, Kev. I'm sure that's going to be the case in the league. Good team, good team. Yeah, some of the press conferences next season with Deserby could be quite interesting, especially if they start badly, but yeah, I think they're done for really, and I want to be opposed to them whenever I can over these next few games, I've already taken the, I think it was 15 to 2 on spurs, not to win another game this season before the Sunderland game. So I think that as a chance now, that's probably short and more over the past week and there is a chance this just could very much fizzle out this season. If they don't be,

9:24don't get a result here against Brighton, then they've got the walls game. They are then could be five, six points behind West Ham and Northern Forest, and they could get to the point where they could be relegated against Chelsea away, which if you're a Chelsea fan, I think they would prefer that than winning the league, I think, to be able to chance to relegate. Well, of course, yeah, I mean, but if you gave them the opportunity for both, I think the unique situation of being able to relegate Tottenham at home would just be something they couldn't pass up, but I suppose the spurs couldn't really have picked a more informed team to play here than Brighton. I mean, one five, they're last six, one, they're last three Premier League away games without conceding. So this is a terrible time for Tottenham to be playing a team that are flowing and doing all the right things. And one thing I like about this matchup, actually, if spurs do try to play this deserving ball where you play out from the back and you bait the press and you're trying encourage players, the frontlines to press you, Brighton are going to gobble them up because they've won the one most possession in the final third this season in the Premier League, such a well-coached

10:28team at winning the ball back high, which probably comes back from deserving's time at the club as well and Herzler has just sort of run with it as well. So really, really bad matchup. And I just think if you would, if you were the Tottenham badge is still holding the price up, I think, for Tottenham, if this was team A versus team B based on the form of the last, I'd say the two seasons and the predicament and the confidence issues that Tottenham find themselves in, I think this Brighton price would be nearer even money than sort of 2.4, I think, I think that the Tottenham factor is still having an effect when it really shouldn't from what we've seen from this football club over the past two seasons. So yeah, I think it's a really simple bet to place. Don't need to over complicate matters. You just have to get Brighton on side, I think here, whichever way you fancy, I'm going to bet the draw no bet at 1.83, I'll be even Brighton on the nose 2.45 on the exchange is fine. Brighton minus 1 on the Asian handicap, 3 to 1, it's probably too big and even if you ladder it all the way up to Brighton to win and any other correct score on the exchange, that's coming in at 14 to 1. If things start to spiral here, Brighton could have a field

11:30date and really put a number on spur. So yeah, I want to be back in all the Brighton lines, but the main bet will be the draw no bet as the lads are very much in sync with as well. And I'll just say goodbye to all the Spurs fans listening to the podcast who've decided to go off and do something else. The pros have their tools and with Betfair, so do you. I'll say for gambling tools work just like the right pair of boots designed to keep you on top of your game, equip yourself so you can bet at your best for more information, visit be gambleaware.org. Newcastle, that's another one where we've got the present colliding with the past Eddie Howe coming up against Bournemouth Stinch Bournemouth have had fun away at Newcastle recently had that big win, didn't they, when Justine Cliver was on fire. Obviously we'll talk about Eddie Howe and the fact he's struggling and let's talk about whether he'll be replaced, but I want to talk about Antonio Raiola. We know he's going now in the summer. Bournemouth haven't been able to convince him to sign an ideal. I'm sure he'll have lots of options. I'm sure athletic club will be one of them. Potentially one extraordinary job

12:35he's done. And if they qualify for Europe, he's the manager of the season. That's a great question. I think, I mean, yeah, he'd be up there as a candidate, wouldn't he? Maybe depends on perhaps if Gladstone wins the conference league or Emory or Pereira win the Europa League, but yeah, you're right, yeah, you would have to be up there in the conversation. I think it's probably a little lost since Cementio left. It's absolutely insane. Is that best player by Miles? Mark is suggesting Keith Andrews as well, which is great. Yeah, he'd have to be up there. Rosie LeBries as well. You've got to put LeBries in there as well for some of them. Yeah, it's the breeze that have to be in there. Yeah. None of these two ever wins the league business. Get them out. If Arthetta wins it, we riot, by the way. I think if he did a vote, I think Arthetta might come 20th of 20th, I think way, even if they win the league, that's some bad decision is much as it'll be a great achievement to win the league. It's had a lot of money spent on it, that squad. It's not as good as what some of the other managers have done. I would argue humbly that Lego head shouldn't win the manager of the season, but there we go. There we go.

13:41Yeah, I mean, I'm going away in the background. You can't hear him because he's putting himself on mute, but he's giggling away in the background of me calling Nicole Arthetta Lego head. Stitch, continue. Yeah, I mean, I think it just shows really how condensed the Premier League is once you take out the top two or three and take out the bottom two. I mean, there's only, I think it's eight points, separate in Chelsea and sixth down to Newcastle in in 14th. So it's very, very condensed and that's as a result of a lot of these clubs in that pack, punch and above their weight this season. And I think we could see a lot of couple of surprises maybe in your next season, which is exciting. Exciting because then you get to see what prize they have a relegation because they went build a cope like Forrest with with Jocelyn two results. But yeah, I think it's healthy. It's healthy. I think maybe the reason why we've perhaps seen a lot of Premier League clubs exit the Champions League, maybe because

14:48the workload required in the Premier League is just so tough essentially. And maybe some of the bigger European teams can rotate a little bit more or if your PSG just half like a weekend off. So that might be why we've seen perhaps a little bit of a downgrade perhaps in teams performance in Europe. But in terms of in terms of this match, yeah, you mentioned Eddie Howe. I love the headline last weekend after Crystal Palace beat Newcastle from behind. I think it's now 25 points. Newcastle have dropped from winning positions. Eddie Howe said, I'm not blind. Okay, cheers Eddie. It's good. It's true. It's true. Facts. So yeah, this one here, I mean, we've got Newcastle 14th, Newcastle. I suggested at the beginning of the season, perhaps with them fighting in the Champions League, them not to finish in the top six and selling to stay up as a bet, which I think is more or less done and dusted now. So yeah, I can't have them odds on here. They're 19 to 20.

15:52That seems a bit short to me. There's only one 12 of 32 Premier League games, 38% yet the odds imply they have a 51% chance of winning. We talked a lot about Bournemouth last week and what a terrific victory wasn't it fully deserved our Arsenal as well. Yeah, there were brilliant. Yeah, maybe we should have been a bit braver when you backed when you backed them both teams of score, but maybe we could have been a bit braver and backed them to win. Only Arsenal Man City have lost fewer games than Bournemouth 7 this season, which is terrific achievement really. It means they're unbeaten in 78% of matches. So that's what mean. I mean, he lost Zabani. He lost Hausson. He lost Kerkers. Then he loses Semenio in January. This is sorcery of the highest art. I mean, this is just nonsense. Lost Kapper as well to do this. Yeah, lost Kapper as well. Thank you for that, Mark. No, no, no, he's still gagging their dropped in. Yes, he lost the ever eccentric Kapper. Imagine that. So he had a lot of talent to lose,

16:54Stinch, and still have the results that they're getting. Yeah, it's fantastic. I mean, I think we look at their recruitment processes really good, isn't it, right? Like, Crupe coming in, Ryan signing in January. They've hit the ground running. So the recruitment processes is excellent really. So I have no doubt that they'll find a good replacement, and they'll try and fill some more of those players that have left in the summer. But yeah, here obviously, as I say, like they're unbeaten in 78% of matches. Yeah, as I say, Newcastle array is 51% chance of winning. So I think it's just a really easy bet here to lay in Newcastle at 2.1. They've already been here in their FA Cup Bournemouth. They're leading 2.1 till very late on when it finished 2.2, or mentally 3.3, and then they were knocked out on penalties, but the bet would still win if something similar unfolded. And they've actually got a really good record against Newcastle. They're on beating the last seven meetings. So the

17:56St James's part will hold no fear for them. Lewis, I very much enjoyed that Kapper gag that cheeky chops Marco here chucked in there. This is a really tough one for Newcastle. In the sense that not this game, but this situation because there's all this talk of, oh, the Saudis are in charge now. They're going to spend all this money and they can't spend all this money because of PSR and various reasons. And actually, the things that I'm hearing are that they're not that bent on world domination with Newcastle as maybe they once were. And I just wonder, you know, how much they'll push over the next couple of years. You know, it's not directly linked, but we're hearing things about live golf. We're hearing about, you know, different angles they might take. And actually, the idea that Newcastle might have this bottomless wealth might not actually be the case. Yeah, it's a very good point, actually. And I think that's and we should be referencing that because they need to be very smart and savvy this summer. I think with their

18:57major, the decisions that they're going to make because it could be a big, a big summer for the football club. And they obviously need to improve on their the way the club runs from a recruitment perspective, because that just hasn't worked. That has been the main reason why their season has, has, has flagged the way it has. I mean, to spend all that money on a langer, ultimatovisa and Ramsey. I think all four of them are on the bench, your way, a crystal palace on on the weekend. It's just, it's just crazy that the fact that they have a managed to sort of embed those players into the mix. But I am such a big, big believer in Eddie Howe. And I think the most important part of this project at Newcastle is to keep him and just surround him more with more skilled recruitment staff and someone that a director of football that can, that can handle that side of it. So I think Eddie Howe has shown over his, over his career, his actual, his weaknesses is, is, is regarding recruitment when he has too much say it happened at Bournemouth. I remember when they dropped 27 million on Jordan Ibe under his watch and you just think, yes, that, that set alarm bells and they've wasted a lot of money again

19:58with him making a lot of the decisions behind the scenes. But I think if you can get the right team around him, Eddie Howe has shown what a brilliant manager he is at this level and I think letting him go could be a mistake for Newcastle in the, in the, in the summer because sometimes the grasses are always greener and I think he's, he has done, he's, in terms of the fixture list and the schedule this season, it's been very, very difficult for Eddie Howe to, to, to manage this team, I think, and get a consistent performance. And I think this is actually a good spot for him. I think mine and Stinch's money might be meeting on the exchange here because I actually made Newcastle bet here at, um, even money, which might surprise a few people because obviously Bournemouth are in absolute red hot runner form. I think, yes, I think it's been mentioned already 13 unbeaten across all competitions in 90 minutes. It's very impressive on the surface. But if you're digging a little bit deeper at these underlying numbers, the warning signs are flashing as they do with Eriola's teams, they always play this sort of, um, high risk high style, um, high risk high reward style. And if you just look at their last seven matches, they have allowed, uh, expected goals

21:02figure of 14.3 across seven games. They've only considered five goals. So that's like an overperformance here of, of around nine goals over this of a seven game sample size, which I would say is quite, quite a fair one to, to, to, to look at. So you're essentially here looking at a team, given up, an expected goals against ratio per 90 of two. And they have played, they haven't played that many, high, high ranking teams in that run as well. Yes, they played, um, Arsenal and many nice last two, but they played Burnley, they played West down, they played Sunday in that run as well. So I think this, this type of, I think there's a regression coming at some point this season for, for Bournemouth. I'm not sure they can keep up, um, not conceding, um, these levels of chances and getting away with it. So I think a new cast or even money here on the exchange are okay. I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna back that and the reason for this is just historically it's a James's park. I know their form has wobbled recently, but this team over past two seasons have average 2.1 expected goals per 90 at home. This is a, this is a very good attack, um, built by Eddie Howe and

22:06they can really, um, ask lots of questions for teams. I think Bournemouth with this underlying process could just be, um, vulnerable here, um, other prices. And Newcastle went off 1.6, um, to beat Bournemouth only a few months ago. Now they're even money. I know they, they, the game ended three all there. So the bet didn't win as we've, as Stinch said, but I, I do think that shift in price is just too big. There's probably a chance of, there's been a bit of a overreaction both ways here to, to Newcastle and Bournemouth. And I just think we have to factor in the human perspective here of what this is going to do to the Bournemouth players knowing that Eriola's going to leave because I was quite crushed here in the news that he was, um, leaving Bournemouth. Let alone, um, let alone players that work with him on a day-to-day basis. And I think it's a very smart move for him, actually, and now it's in this now because he, they'd got to be talks at some of these big clubs in the Premier League, the lights of Chelsea, even potentially Newcastle. Oh God. No. Sorry. I can't have him go to Chelsea. I didn't. Yes. They are not allowed nice things anymore. Yes. Stay away from Oliver Glazerner and stay away from it. And only Eriola, I get it.

23:07That's allowed. If you're looking, they've got a squad there who, what they want to do with it, young players, they want that to improve and they want to play nice football. And only Eriola has shown he is probably one of the best managers in the world at doing that in terms of mixing the style and making players better. He would be the perfect fit, I think, in the Chelsea model. They would ruin him, but I'm just saying they should be nice for that football club. They'll break him. They should be looking at someone like Eriola to go in there, whether they will or not, whether he would want to take it, I'm not sure because he's hot, probably is set on going back to back to Spain. And yeah, but I think this, the fact that he is leaving the football club might have an effect on the players over these past next few games. Yes, they could go out of a bang and they could go and play European football next season. I'd be so, I'd be crushed if it was leaving. As I mentioned, if I was a player and it is something which isn't really quantifiable in betting, she can't really put a number on how much is going to affect, but it wouldn't surprise me over the last six games if they just drop their level knowing that Eriola is not going to be their

24:07next season. So kind of just trying to get ahead of the curve here and maybe seeing a bit of regression from Bournemouth in the future over the next sort of six games or so. And when you offer me even money, Newcastle, it's James's Park over what they've done over the past two years and a Premier League under this manager with the attack in Tallinn, they have, I think I'll just have to back it. So yeah, evens it was fine for me for Newcastle on the back of this weekend. Quite a baity podcast today. We all slacked off Tottenham. I called our tetalego head, which amused Mark. No end. And now slacked off Chelsea. It's fine. It's all right. It's fun, sentiment, showbiz. What is meant to be all about? Leo against Nice, Mark. Leo is going very, very well. Nice rubbish. Is it as simple as that? Yeah. Move on. Yeah. Yeah. Well, little world rubbish at the turn of the year, they came back from the winter break in terrible form. They suffered seven defeats and 10 across all competitions and picked up just two points from eight games in Liga. Bruno Genescio's position was under serious threat, but they've managed

25:11to turn the tables and quite impressively too. So we take out the home and away defeats to Aston Villa in the Europa League. Lil have posted seven wins in a draw in the last eight, keeping five clean sheets and they're scoring freely. But I think arguably more impressive has been the actual performance levels against some of Liga's top opposition. So in the last four fixtures, they've been away to rent and one, two, one. They've topped Marseille two, one at the Belladrome. They've then absolutely smashed their huge rivals and title challenges, lawns, three nil in the Derby de Nore. And then last week, they went to Toulouse and one four nil. And that match was quite significant actually because Genescio lost his father early last week. He'd been away from the team all week, but arrived on match day to lead his team. And his burs reduced a standout display really and embraced him after all the goals and sort of dedicated that performance to Genescio and his father really some really emotive scenes. There were lots of tears, but Lil were fantastic and they were aided by Red Card in that game. But even so, 2.22 expected goals. And they are the form team in France really alongside PSG.

26:12Their second unexpected points over the last eight games. In that time, they've averaged a 74% share of the total XG in those eight games, a 1.12 XG supremacy on a per game basis. Just exceptional levels really of dominance. And you know, I've got that fantastic chance to enhance what is their top three position and a potential Champions League qualification place against Nees on Saturday night. A Nees team who are in serious danger now of dropping out of the division. We touched on them quite a few times before Christmas about how their form is nose-diving. And last weekend, they played out a really dour 1.1 draw with Lara of two teams, Nees and Lara of immediately above the relegation playoff position. You think it would have been an opportunity to try and put some space between themselves in the bottom three, but they didn't. They are the position immediately above the relegation playoff place. The gap is reduced to four points with five games to play. And if you look at Nees, it's schedule from here. Not easy. Lawns, Lille, Marseille, that's second third and fourth. They also have to go away to Ors there who occupy that relegation playoff position.

27:15That's not easy. That's not easy at all. The only savior really is playing bets on the final day at home, but they could be already entrenched in that bottom three come the final day. And based on their form, it's heading that way because they've won just twice in 19. They've lost 12 with those, considering 41 goals away from home, eight defeats and 10. They've considered 1.94 expected goals per game on their travels this season. They're considering over two goals per game. Actual goals that is. And yeah, nine of the 14 away days, they've considered at least twice, seven of nine trips to the top 11. Top 11, they've considered at least twice. So yeah, I've been looking at trying to find a way to play Lille here. And I'm just going to keep it relatively simple. Just take the Asian handicap selection here on Lille minus one at 196. It feels like a bit of a free hit here, but you expect Lille to win. If they win by just the one goal, it's cashback. If they win by two or more, we get paid out at close to evens. I'd rather do that and sort of fiddle with the under 0. Under 4.5 goals or over 1.5 goals, because this Lille side has the ability to shut out Nees, but also the ability to score

28:173s and 4s as well. So yeah, Lille minus one 196. People don't know, by the way, Nees are owned by Ineos, who were, of course, switched their attention to Manchester United. And while I've been trying to deal with the shiny things that old Trafford, they've left Nees to rot. Sheffield Wednesday up against Charlton Stinch. Are we smashing up Wednesday again? Well, I thought we'd have our last chance to backshifter Wednesday to lose at a decent price, Kev, but we're back again. Good to keep the keeps on giving. Yeah, indeed. I mean, Wednesday have drawn their last two games. They drew Niel Niel with total elect Coventry, and they drew one-one with third bottom lester, but they conceded 44 shots and nearly five expected goals. So just a bit lucky, I would say, to get out of those two without a win. Sorry, without a defeat. So they've now failed to win the last 36 matches. It's 30 defeats

29:19this season and just won win overall. And yeah, obviously, it's all about price again, isn't it? Coventry, they were one to six, lester, they were eight to 15. These are all to be defeated. Stoke were four to nine, whole were two to five. It was two to seven and one for four to nine. Yet we've got Charlton here at 1.82. Now, Charlton have failed to win the last five matches. But I think there's some mitigating circumstances. They created nearly eight expected goals across those five, but they only scored four. And then before that, they had back-to-back wins against Millersboro and Birmingham. So in my mind, I've got no doubt that they can go to Wednesday and win. Charlton at 18th. Now, they're five points clear of relegation with four games to go, but there's been a big resurgence at the bottom of the table, which I think has brought Charlton back into the conversation. West Brommer and Beating in six, although there's a bit of news this week regarding the potential points deduction. I mean, I don't know how you can arrive in mid-April. And then all of a sudden, the potential points deduction is a flung over your head, but there we go. Oxford

30:23and Blackburn just won the feet in six. And Port Smith, don't ask me how. Back-to-back wins against second and fourth Middlesbrough, without conceding unbelievable out of absolutely nowhere. So in my opinion, I think Nathan Jones is going to put everything into getting a win here. And I think that'll effectively secure Charlton safety. And yeah, the price at 1.82, I think, is far too big. Blackburn against Coventry Lewis Coventry, have to admire, I know we don't admire Frank Lampard on this show very much. I know you do. Jake has some horrendous vendetta against him. But they obviously flow out the traps, we're going really well. Then they had a really big wobble. They managed to stabilise it. It's pretty good going really. Yeah, it doesn't matter about all that. Now they're one point away from promotion, Kevin. That's all that matters. And I'm just thinking about Coventry in this game, but having proper 90s football nostalgia vibes, thinking about Coventry returning to the Premier League. He's been 25 years since they've been at the top table. Lazy hell. We're so old.

31:27I know. Before that, I expect that feels like yesterday. So I just want to enjoy digging down this Coventry rabbit hole. I went down just looking at some of the data and some of the just how fast time moves. I mean, before that had you banging the binoculars, you've just taken the words out of my mouth. I went through their final game in the Premier League in 19, when was it? Not 2001 was the last time they played in the Premier League. And they had a midfield duo of Mustafa had you, as you said, and Yusif Chippo and John Hartson was leading the line. Gordon Stracken was in charge. I mean, that was nearly 9,000 days ago now. So this is about feels genuinely like yesterday. No, no, it's just the next essential crisis for me now. You need to go to this big over cold shower, I think. Calm yourself down. But yes, the story that they've gone right down to lead to it, didn't they Coventry? And I think it was 2017 where they finished sixth in lead two. That was their lowest ever lead finish. So the fact they managed to sort of gather themselves and make the charge through the leagues,

32:29brilliant story, I think. And yeah, they, as I mentioned, just need one point for a Premier League return. I think they said, it's a great story. And then we're looking forward to covering the next season in the Premier League. So they just need to point at Blackburn. And as Stinch said, the relegation situation is hot enough, actually. It's condensed a bit more with this ridiculous form that that ports with somehow managed to gather Oxford have found some results as well. So the things above them like Blackburn, they're now just three to one to be relegated when they were looking safe, maybe a week or so ago. And I think they only need probably a few more points, Blackburn. They don't need to, they don't need to shoot the lights out. They play less there at home on the final day, which could be a really big one if, if Leicester can just get themselves in touch. So they still need points. And they've done okay under Michael O'Neill since he's come in. They won 16 points from the 12 championship games, ninth in the championship form table. And he's, he's done what he does, wherever he's been really just built around being defensively solid, did the same as Stoke when they were in a bit of bother mid season. Really smart guy, I think, really knows how to get teams organized and well drilled very quickly.

33:34And I think in this day and age, that is really important for when you're coming in as a sort of a firefighter. And yeah, so they, as you should say, with the fact he's come in, the goal average is has to have drops in the games. Then those 12 games, there's only been two goals per game in Blackburn's games. So seven of them gone under, under 2.5 as well, those 12. So even though commentary come here with a very high goals per game ratio, I think the fact they only need a draw to assure their promotion is a real thing to think about when a session, setting the market, I'm not sure it's been fact to the enough here. It's 3.5 for the draw on the exchange here. And I think that's a really big runner in this game because I think a bit of human instinct again is probably a mention of human instinct early with the Bungwith players. And it's hard to factor in. And I think Frank Lampard is going to say all the right things for this game. They're going to go to win the game. We won't settle for a point, etc. But I think football is totally aware of game state and what they need to do in a game sometimes. And if this game is level with 20 minutes to go, driven into the

34:35final stages, I think that little voice is going to kick in in terms of Lampard's way of looking at it and also that the players on the pitch to the finishing line is inside. And a draw would be absolutely fine. And I think a draw would also be very valuable for Blackburn in their fight to stay up as well. So I think it's got stalemate written all over it here. But I want to include that under 2.5 line into the mix just with Blackburn's recent recent games. I think it's going to be a bit of a tough watch, non-event. And if you combine under 2.5 goals and the draw, so back in or 1-1 here, you're getting 4.5 on the exchange. I think there's a really nice angle and I'd have that a bit shorter to be honest. So I really like the look of the draw in this game. Coventry don't need to shoot the lights out here. They just need to get out with the point and they can go party for the rest of the season. And yes, can be great to have them back in the Premier League. It was a really great story. But yeah, now I'm looking to back the draw on the under 2.5 goals line. I think it's too big. Now if your player goes off, your bet is still on with Betfair's safe sub. Valid on selected leagues and markets only, more information can be found in the description.

35:40Stephen Edge up against Lincoln. Stinge, congratulations to Lincoln, who've already gone up. That's the hell of a story, isn't it? Yeah, a fantastic achievement. I'm not sure how many years they've been outside or if they've never even made the second tier. But given the fact that you've got Cardiff, Bolton, Huddersfield, quite sort of a lot of big teams in Elite 1 for Lincoln to have been promoted with what was it? Six games remaining, five games remaining, like, yeah, terrific achievement. And yeah, they can guarantee the title if they win away at Stephen Edge. They are 11 points clear of Cardiff with four to play. Cardiff are away at Reading and Cardiff are four to six. I think they probably won't even have one eye on nothing. They'll just know that if they go and win at Stephen Edge, they'll be champions and then they can them and their fans can just enjoy partying for the rest of the season. So Lincoln's slight faves here at 13 to 8. They're undefeated in the last 25 matches. So they got promoted two games

36:46ago and they didn't switch off last time out. They won last time out as well. So again, yeah, I think they really are gunning for the title. Not that I'm bothered actually, because I'm going to come on to it. I'm back in a goal scorer. It's my EFL goal scorer in this game. We had Mark Hound for Fleetwood last week. I think score at 10 minutes, which was nice. So yeah, wait, Stephen Edge, Stephen Edge in the last playoff place. They're four points clear of Huddersfield and have a game in hand, but they played away at Bolton on Tuesday night. They were down to 10-member half the game, but they'd already conceded a couple. They went on to concede five, whereas Lincoln have had the week off. So I'm going to back Lincoln's top goal scorer, so nothing out of this world to suggest the top goal scorer for Lincoln. Champions-elect might find the back of the net and wow, he is a prolific shooter. So Jack Moiland to score any time here at 7-2. He's got 11 goals in 29 games this season, but more recently it's eight goals in his last 14 starts. He plays as the number 10 in a 4-2-3-1, and as I mentioned, he just shoots

37:53for absolutely fun in dangerous positions. Average in 3.6 shots per 90, with 2.3 of those coming inside the penalty area, and yeah, if you're allowing me, if I could just read some of his shot tutorials this season. Yes, five, five, five, six, 10, 10 again, 10 against third place Bolton, third place Bolton, five and five this season. So yeah, the fact that Lincoln asked like Faves says to me that their top goal scorer should be a bit shorter than 7-2. So yeah, good luck to Lincoln, and hopefully they will have the title to celebrate on Saturday night. All right, let's all pack into the football only better plane. We're headed to Brazil mark. Victoria against Corinthians, what have you found? Yeah, well, the seasons now are roughly sort of 10 match days old, so we're starting to see some patterns develop, and yeah, the big boys palm-airish and flamenco are first and second. The promo size are struggling towards the bottom end, but yeah, I wanted to focus on this game for a couple of reasons, really, as I want to oppose Corinthians position here as favourites away from

38:56home, and it starts with the schedule. So on Wednesday night, Corinthians were involved in the couple of liberadores. They won comfortably against the Colombian side Santa Fe at home in Sao Paulo. However, this match against Victoria takes place on late Saturday night, and it's a decent couple of hours liked from Sao Paulo to sell the door to face Victoria. So recovery and preparation time will be limited for Corinthians who will be focusing on couple of liberadores progression. It's true, too, that they've got a new coach, Fernando Dines has come in and performances have picked up a touch. They've got three consecutive clean sheets, two victories in the couple of liberadores, and last weekend they played out that nil nil draw with palm-airish and the big darby game in Sao Paulo that featured two reds or Corinthians. They managed to cling on despite being dominated that second half for a nil nil draw. Andrei Matiezino, I think is how you pronounce it, will now be suspended here. And Memphis to Pai is out injured as well. So they're missing a few key cogs. Anyway, across the Brazilian era, campaigns so far, Corinthians have won just twice in

39:5911. The other leagues, lowest goal scorers, were just eight in 11. Despite a relatively kind schedule, too, on their travels, they've lost the XG battle in four or five away, as well as the shot count in all five away games. They've generated just three big chances on their travels. And these kind of away day issues are a long term concern for Corinthians. If you go back to the beginning of last season, they've won just five of 24 away league games. They've averaged 0.79 goals. And you can compare and contrast with Vitoria at home, a team who puts a lot of emphasis on their home performances and results. So the clear sort of chasm between their respective home and away form, which I don't think is reflected here in the market. So Vitoria and the same example, have lost just five of 24 home games. They've won 13 of those. That's a 53% win record at home since the start of last season. And yeah, if we dig deeper, Vitoria have scored in all five of those home fixtures, they've kept clean sheets. Sorry, yeah, they've scored in all five of those 24 fixtures. They've kept clean sheets in half of them. If you look at this season alone, they've tabled four wins in five at home, the only blemish coming in stir flamenco.

41:03They've missed a penalty on that day. And life dominated actually restrictive flamenco to just six shots. And they still managed to escape with the win. So they are very, very good at home. Third place, say, Pat Sa Palo, were beaten here last weekend and Vitoria kept a clean sheet for in fourth matches in five now at home. So yeah, I like the look of them here as outsiders. We can get them a two, sorry, 196 scratch zero star on the Asian handicap. So basically, I draw no bet. I'm supposed to even on Vitoria here. As I say, they don't lose often at home. They're very competitive and Corinthians coming off the tough schedule. And they're away from pie or they do not win often enough to be considered favorites. Okay, so we get back in the plane. We're off to Wimbledon now. Wimbledon against Plymouth. Jeff fuels quite low these days, you might have realised, but we're just wasting it here on the show. Wimbledon against Plymouth Stinch. Were you laughing last week, but then we not have a terrific day out in Britain last weekend? We did. Yes. Have you seen the league won relegation odds? Go on.

42:08Well, with that Wimbledon last week at 22 to 1, then our 10 to 3 second faves. There you go. There you go. You see Stinch nose. I'm getting a little bit excited. They've dropped now to 20th. They were 16th. They're only three points above Exeter and they have a minus eight worse goal difference than Exeter. So yeah, it's getting it's getting tight and they welcome Plymouth this weekend. They played last night Wimbledon against Stockport and lost two note. And I'd already decided before last night that I wanted to back Plymouth at the prices. They were 23 to 20. They're now into 10 to 11, Plymouth. So they've come in significantly. For no real reason, I would say, probably just early market, maybe being a little bit off. There's no real reason. Everybody knows Wimbledon's issues regarding their injuries, but Plymouth are a different beast. They're eighth. They're four points off the playoffs,

43:12but the remaining playoff place is that Stephen has just been already spoken about. So I think there's a big opportunity here to close to close the gap. And in the last 25 games in league one, only champions Lincoln have taken more points than Plymouth. We've spoken a lot about Wimbledon's lack of goal scoring options. Well, Plymouth have got no issues there. They're strikers, Laurent Tolite. And I've been purple. They've scored 28 league goals between them this season. If you look at Wimbledon starting 11 against Stockport, their top scorer has two goals. So I'm very much happy to back Plymouth here. I was going to back them minus a quarter. Obviously, I'll just take them on the nose now at 10 to 11. But yeah, just to reiterate, Wimbledon lost seven of the last eight games now. They scored just three goals. Plymouth won 11 of the last 18. And away from home, they've been just as good. If not better, they've won eight of the last 12 away. And they've had the whole week off to rest, whereas Wimbledon are down to the bare bones, if not even shorter. So yeah, Plymouth at 10 to 11 for me. And yeah, if Exeter could win some games for us, I'll be much

44:18appreciated. Super stuff. Let's wrap up with the world famous podcast treble each of the three guys. Come up with a selection of the weekends action. And we wrap it up for you in a boosted treble. Marco Hare, let's start with you. Let's back to the greyhounds in France. Lil to beat Nice. Wonderful. Lewis. Everyone's going to hate me. Come over to the Sunday show to see why we should be back in Liverpool under 0.5 first half goals at five to six against it. Oh my god. Okay, yes, the massacres podcast treble here. And stage takers home. Yeah, for me, it was between chart and Plymouth, but obviously a big plunge on Plymouth. So yeah, easy bet here, chart and out three to four given shuffle. Where's it already lost 30 matches this season? That's all we have time for on this edition of football only better. Please do remember to gamble responsibly loads great previews on our website, betting.betfair.com. The focus of the Sunday show will be the little

45:19matter of Arsenal away at Manchester City from Mark from Lewis from Stinch from all the Tottenham Chelsea and Arsenal fans that we've annoyed along the way. It's goodbye for now.