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0:00This is democracy now, democracynow.org, the Warren Peace Report. I made me good, man. The U.S. is really Warren Iran has entered its fifth week. President Trump told the Financial Times Sunday his preference would be to, quote, take the oil and seize Iran's export hub, Harg Island. Early after his comments, the price of oil surged $116 a barrel. Separately, President Trump spoke to reporters aboard air first one and boasted about regime change in Iran. The Trump's comments come as $3,500 U.S. troops began arriving in the region on Friday.

1:05The Washington Post reported Saturday night that the Pentagon's was preparing for weeks of potential ground conflict in Iran. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal's reporting President Trump is considering a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, according to a consortium of human rights groups in Iran. Nearly 1,500 Iranian civilians, at least 217 children, have been killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes. Senkham says more than 300 U.S. troops have been wounded, 13 U.S. service members have died. For more, we're joined by Ali Kadivar, fellow at the Radcliffe Institute at Harvard University Associate Professor of Sociology and International Studies at Boston College. He grew up in Iran during the Iran-Arak War, was active in the student movement at the University of Tehran. He joins us now from Cambridge, Massachusetts.

2:06Professor Kadivar, you have brothers still in Iran. Can you talk about whether you can reach them, whether the internet is still down? And what is happening on the ground in Iran right now? Yes, I have brothers in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran. We cannot directly reach them. The Iranian government has shut down internet and restricted the phone communication. People in Iran can call outside, and if they can buy very expensive VPNs and filters, then they can momentarily connect to internet. So the connect communication with Iran, for most people, has been one way. It's people in Iran that communicate. People are from what I hear. No, go ahead. Yeah, I think there are different group of people. Many people are scared of the war. They are waiting for the war to end.

3:10On the other hand, government has been mobilizing its supporters very actively. Iranian government has been one of the type of political regimes that have relied on mobilizing their supporters in various occasions on their external pressure. The level of mobilization has been higher, for example, under sanctions, and under wartime condition has been highest, both during the Iran War and under the current war, especially that it has started with killing of Hamine and he has many supporters. So government supporters have been in main squares. They have been marching in streets, chanting slogans. So public spaces have been very much just in control of government and their people. This must bring back memories. As you sit here in the United States, you're looking at the bombs over Tehran and other cities.

4:10You grew up under bombs. In that case, it was the Iran-a-Rock War, with the U.S. supporting both sides, I guess you could say. Explain the history for people who aren't familiar with the history of Iran. So looking at Iran's modern history, we have had a few different issues, major issues of Iranian politics that have been interwoven. So for the topic of our conversation, one recurring issue is imperial wars and intervention over Iran. So starting in early 19th century, we have the wars of Iran and Russia, that Iran lost territory, then with Britain when Afghanistan became independent. Iran was neutral in war war one and two. It was occupied in both times. Head of state was removed in 1941, Reza Shah. Then we had the 1953 coup sponsored by the United States and the U.K.

5:11And then, as you mentioned, Iran-a-Rock War, which was a regional war, but both sides received support. I think Iraq received more intelligence and support. And these wars have shaped Iranian political development from early on one question for Iranians was that why are we over and over become the subject of military aggressions by great powers, by imperial powers. And they have been looking for solutions for that. On the other hand, we have had these ongoing issues about defining political order in Iran. We have had the constitutional revolution. We have had the ongoing democracy movement in Iran, various social movements and protests in which Iranians have demanded opening political freedom and democracy. When we look at how these wars have impacted the political order, going back to Iran-a-Rock War, again, as your question mentioned.

6:13In general, the wars have not been conducive to democratic breakthroughs, quite the opposite. They have resulted in more militarized authoritarianism, more close political space in Iran. When Iran-a-Rock War started, when Iraq invaded Iran, we still have nationalist president Abuel Hassanbanis sat there, were nationalists and other opponents of Islamist. Within the parliament, Iranian civil society and political society was highly mobilized. But the war presented an opportunity for Islamists to basically consolidate power, they oppose all of their opponents to be working or being on the side of the enemies. They escalated repression and violence against their opponents. And within one or two years, within Iran-a-Rock War, we see that the political scene completely

7:14changes as a result of government repression. They basically pushed out and sidelined all rival factions. They demobilized Iranian civil society with using different forms of repression. And currently, we are observing the same situation in Iran. We have the internet shutdown, which basically disconnects Iranian citizens from each other. Iranian public sphere, which was operating on internet, for now, that just doesn't exist. Any more, the government has continued to execute political prisoners. They're still arresting activists and journalists. So the current condition is very repressive and with the killings of the different individuals in the leadership, more hard-line and more hawkish individuals have been replaced. So we are seeing, again, what the war is doing to Iran's political order.

8:15And as President Trump mentioned, this is not the type of regime change we initially talk about in the U.S. But there has been political change within the Islamic Republic. Islamic Republic has changed to various directions in its 47 years' life. Sometimes it has opened up, sometimes it has become more repressive and more close. And this is the latter when the political situation has become darker, more repressive and the government has become more hawkish and hard-line. The President of the United States, Trump, has floated for a few days. Iran has given us a present and now, speaking on Air Force One, he explained what it was. They gave us, I think, out of a sign of respect, 20 votes, a big, big votes of oil going through the Hormor street, and that's taking place starting tomorrow morning. But we're only saying that we're doing extremely well in that negotiation, but you never know

9:22with the red because we negotiate with them and the wheels have to blow them up. The Strait of Hormuz, which apparently Trump and supporters are floating, should be renamed the Strait of Trump. I wanted to ask your response to this. And also, the significance of these thousands of paratroopers, U.S. paratroopers being moved into the area, the speculation, either all-out land invasion or a threat of one or taking over Harg Island and what that means, Professor Kadyvar. So Iran has used the strategy of asymmetric warfare. This is something that Iranians have been working on for a long time since Iran-Iraq War. They have been anticipating an American attack on Iranian soil and they understood that they cannot match America's military power. But they have used various tactics, horizontal escalation by attacking American bases in the

10:24Gulf region that's been part of it. The other part is to use economic pressure by basically closing the Strait of Hormuz. It has affected the oil and gas market, basically energy market. And this has brought serious pressure on the United States. And that is why we see this type of inconsistent messaging from President Trump that Iran did not allow many ships to go through. I think there were eight or ten, as you mentioned. This is a very small fraction of the ships and oil and gas that regularly in peacetime has been going through the Strait of Hormuz. So this shows that the pressure that Iranians have developed through the Strait of Hormuz has worked. And when we'll again look at the previous records of Iran has fought in the 19th and 20th or 21st century. In terms of pressure they have inflicted on the adversary, this is the most effective

11:27war in terms of offense that Iran has fought. On the other hand, because of the destructive power of both Israel and the US, the level of, I think, damage that has gone on Iran is also unprecedented. Even though the war with Iraq went eight years, I don't think Iran has been in a war with adversaries that have created this level of damage on not just military targets, but many civilian infrastructure, schools, universities, factories, hospitals, and many thousands of residential buildings. Did you know about Harg Island when you lived in Iran? I mean, the focus on this island in the Persian Gulf and its significance for Iran. Yeah, we have, yeah, we know about Harg Island, but like everyone else, we have also, I have also learned more about its strategic importance.

12:28In terms of the land invasion, yes, the US has troops there, they're sending more troops. It is not that the United States currently does not have enough troops for a full land invasion. They probably might try some limited invasion, as you said, Harg Island or the Lorac Island in the streets of Ormos, and they might have some successes in terms of few days of capturing the place, but I think it will put American soldiers in the way of harm. Iran would have, they can attack them with drones, with artillery, if it comes, if US invades, the mainland in Iran, they will be dealing with Iranian army. I don't think the United States will have an easy time. Just maybe a few first days they can announce success Trump can do that, but it will just the escalation, I think, will just expand the myths that the United States is dealing with.

13:31Now I don't think it would provide an offering, it would just make the situation more complicated for the US. Professor Hadivari wanted to repeat Trump's statement that we just played. We negotiate with them, and then we always have to blow them up, your response. It just shows that the United States is not a reliable interlocutor that you cannot trust them when you negotiate with them, that is, I think, the clear message that Trump is sending. And it puts the United States in comparison with other great powers at the moment. I think China is looking like a more rational at least, if not benevolent, but more rational, superpower versus the United States, which would matter for the changing global order, because this war is a defining moment not just for the Middle East, but I think for the

14:31whole global order. Can you talk about the significance right now of Pakistan being the moderator or the mediator between Iran and the U.S. foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey convened Sunday in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, for further discussions aimed at ending the war. The United States, Israel, and Iran were not part of the talks, it was unclear whether any progress was made. What are your thoughts on Pakistan? I mean, I think it's important that these regional neighbors or powers are trying to mediate, I think, eventually some sort of settlement or deal should emerge from this when different Iran and the U.S. can agree on some terms. It doesn't look like that for that to be the case at the moment.

15:32But some argue that more powerful actors such as Russia or China might have to mediate here to provide some guarantees and maybe Pakistan or Turkey or Egypt may not be powerful enough to give guarantees to bring the both parties to an agreement or compromise. One to get your response to the latest Trump post that just came in as we were speaking on truth social. Saudi rights great progress has been made, but if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately open for business, we'll conclude our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells, and hargayland, and possibly all desalination plants, which we have purposely not yet touched, professor.

16:34So these are all war crimes, and this is American president threatening war crimes over and over publicly, so that's first point. Second is that he has been inconsistent, this is because this war has, this is a war of choice and aggression for the United States unlike Iran that is fighting a war of existential threat. And the war has not been going according to maybe its main objectives, even though the objectives have been unclear. So as a result, we see President Trump and other American officials being highly inconsistent talking about objectives of the war and ending the war on different days. But even if Trump does all of this, which will be a catastrophe for people of Iran, it will raise the price of oil a lot further if the U.S. is dealing with some problems in the energy market, this will escalate and expand problems in the energy market and for global

17:39economy. Iran has threatened to retaliate and they have showed that they have the capability of doing this. So they would, I think, attack energy plants, electricity plants, oil plants, oil fields, all over the Gulf region and in Israel, which again increases the price of oil a lot more. So we would be looking in a price of oil over $200, which many are warning even the current level could lead to the global recession, but even in that case, much more likely to have global recession. So I don't think that the United States has viable options for escalation without increasing the cost for itself. So this is not a clear path forward what Trump is talking about. My last question, Ali Kadivar, here you are in Iranian living in the United States, which is waging war on your country, Iran. You run a sub-stack called popular politics.

18:42As you look at the media in the United States, what do you think the media gets most wrong? What do you think people most misunderstand, whether we're talking about your students at Boston College or your work as a fellow at Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Studies at Harvard University? What should we understand and what do we get wrong? One thing is that for years, Iran has been demonized in American media. Iran has been presented as a threat, as evil, as menace, as the only source of instability in the Middle East, which it is true. Iran has been destabilizing actions in the region, but instability has started a long time before the Iranian revolution. Iran is just part of the environment. It has been born. In the United States, it has even more destabilized with Iraq war, Afghanistan war, Israel with its genocide, Saudi Arabia with bombing Yemen, UAE with having a hand in the civil

19:48war in UAE. There are so there are problems of political violence and military intervention in the region, but this has to be all understood together. This type of picture that everyone is doing fine and we are good people and Iran is the bad guy who is doing all the bad things. It's just very simplistic. It results to this current situation that the United States has got itself into a war and doesn't know how to get out of it. That is one to understand Iran with all of its complexity to see the struggles of Iranian people for freedom, for dignity, for a better life. As I mentioned, this type of military intervention has led to much smaller space for political activity and activism in Iran. The other part is this that even if the media doesn't like Iran here and demonize it and present it in a very negative terms, it also does not have a good understanding of how

20:53the system works, how the institutions work, how the society works, which resulted in the type of strategy we saw from the United States. We thought that the capitation or killing the leader would lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic within one day or two days or one week. I think this type of short term plans to do this type of rapid, massive, magical transformation in Iran shows that there is a lack of understanding of how political institution and Iranian society works. But we don't have a good understanding to make realistic policy and to also understand the mindset of Iranians in Iranian society in the regime, what are the imperatives of Iran, what are the security issues, what are the developmental issues, what are the questions about democracy that Iranians are dealing with. So we have been tending, we have created a picture that is convenient for us for the type

21:57of political strategies such as going to war and sanctions that we are comfortable with. We have, instead of understanding Iran and designing policy and strategy based on that, we have decided on the strategies and then created a picture of Iran that fits into that strategy. Ali Kadivar, we thank you so much for being with us, fellow at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Studies at Harvard University, associate professor of sociology and international studies at Boston College. The grew up in Iran during the Iran-Arak war was active in the student movement, University of Iran. His sub-stack is titled Popular Politics Unbound. To see part one of our discussion, go to democracynow.org. I'm Amy Goodman. Thanks so much for joining us.