With Buybacks Ending, A Market Correction Is Not Off The Table | Lance Roberts

0:00This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online makes sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability varies 18 plus. Class it up with Crocs. You know back to school is coming in fast. So why wait to find your new faith footwear? Step into a local Crocs store and step into your new look. Try it. Style it. Make it yours. Because the right pair doesn't just show up. It shows off. First day fits, handled. Walk out ready for whatever's next. Visit your nearest Crocs store today. Also starting today, the blackout window begins for corporate buybacks. Now that's not selling.

1:01That's not corporations aren't selling stock, but they're just not going to be buying as much stock. So that kind of that buying support from corporations is going to fade over the next couple of weeks. So that's going to leave the market a little bit vulnerable to, you know, headline risk, geopolitical risk, you know, concern risk. We're also running into the end of the quarter. So a quarter in rebalancing as well. So that's going to be a potential risk. So the point is, is that we're might, you know, if you're expecting a 10, 15, 20% decline, I think that's getting wrong out of the market because of this consolidation. But a correction back to the 50 day moving average, maybe the 100 day moving average, which would be 3 to 5%. Certainly isn't off the table right now. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money founder in your host Adam Taggart. Welcome you here at the end of the month. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. Welcome to Thoughtful Money.

2:03It's just a worthwhile αν! Welcome to Thoughtful Money. REPO say I'm after 5 million videos. 여러분들 who leagueend people ... Followed us to 3 to 3 million videos. 回FaI Welcome to Thoughtful Money. will be very short, only be two words. And it's that moving sucks, which I know you know well, Lance. But as folks, long-term viewers, probably know by now, I moved to Reno, I've been renting a house, just bought a house, but it's a new build. So that house won't be ready until at least next summer. And the house that we're renting, the landlord's got approached with an unsolicited offer that they ended up taking and very apologetically told us, look, we love you guys, but you can't stay here. You gotta leave when tree leases over while the lease ended this week. So I'm literally, I've literally been in the moving process this week. And then today, Lance, as soon as we're done, I get to finish all the prep before the big moving truck with the big, burly guys arrives tomorrow.

3:05So anyway, so just in that hell of moving. Yeah, sorry, you moving, where are you moving into? You moving into another house or? Yes, we're moving into another house. It's actually, it's in the same development that we're in. So it's nice because it's only about a five minute drive from here. So I can just do lots of shuttling during the day with all the small stuff. So I mean, I did a very similar thing. So kind of right at the peak of the housing market where things were, sales were really good. I sent you a link to the house that we sold. And right when we sold that house, it was a new build that we did with toll brothers. And I've been, yeah, right at the peak of the house, of the housing market. And, but our other house wasn't ready. And so we had to move into an apartment. So we just moved everything into storage. We had our movies, everything to storage. We moved into a small apartment for about two months. And then had to move again to get. Yeah, yeah. So I'm doing the prolonged version of that. Yeah, not two months, but maybe a year plus. Yeah. No, it absolutely sucks.

4:07It's miserable. And especially when you're moving back to back, it's really. Yeah, it grinds you down. And really this, I mean, I shouldn't complain all that much because this is an easier move. Like I said, it's only five minutes from here. And when we moved to Reno, we did much of the sorting of like, okay, what do we not need? Let's put all that in storage. So we're not even taking all of our crap with us to the new house. But still. Now this is, now this is a really good exercise for you and your wife. My wife and I have mastered this because we move every few years, right? You guys crazy. This is a really good exercise. So all the stuff that you're, that stuff you don't need that you're moving into storage, if it sits in storage for more than three months, donate it. Yeah, you're never going to use it. So this is a good, cathartic exercise to get rid of all the clutter in your life. Yeah, I will tell you, my wife is a champion at minimalism. Yeah. I mean, I'll sometimes like put down, you know, a shirt or something. And then I turn around and it's gone. It's like, I already been sent to goodwill.

5:08There you go. I like your wife better already. Yeah, yeah. Well, sometimes I'm nervous that if I sit still for too long, she's going to pack me up. Oh, don't worry. That's you and me both. Absolutely. That's the last thing on toes with my wife. You know, I just, you know, she's too pretty to leave out there alone. So yeah. All right. Well, look, let's jump into the market. And folks, this one might be cut a little bit shorter given the moving tasks I've got to get to. But we'll try to be efficient. So number of things I want to talk to you about. But let's start with today's jobs numbers. That just came out a few hours ago. So interestingly, this big payroll beat. And also a revision of past months, but a positive revision. July went from a negative payrolls to a positive payrolls number here. I think they're saying this was like a four sigma beat version. The headline today was a four sigma beat over expectations. Yeah. So what's interesting is, is we live in this kind of cookie world

6:11where oftentimes bad news is taken as good news because it, oh, it means that the feds more likely to not hike going forward. This is being taken the other way around good news as bad news where they're saying, hey, this gives Kevin Worsh a little bit more breathing room to hike if he wants to because the job market's not falling apart. I guess first question is, what's your interpretation of all this? Look, I'm not Kevin Worsh. I have no idea what Kevin Worsh is thinking. But first of all, these employment number, look, it was a good employment number today, 162,000. Our replacement rate on a monthly basis is about 200. So even at 162, this is a very weak number, economic growth wise. So yes, it was a stronger number than expected, but it certainly doesn't say that the job market is just booming off all cylinders. Furthermore, outside of the headline number, wage growth on a year of your basis declined

7:12to 3.1% from 3.2% last report. So wages are in a continual decline here. That's been going on for a while. Real wage growth is on the decline. That tells you a lot more about what's going on in the economy than just the jobs in the world. But say, sorry, real wage growth must be at zero right now or a little negative, if nominal is growing at 3.1%, yeah, it's about it. It's around zero. Give or take. But the real issue is that, again, this is one month, this is one month, right? And this is also August, what happens in August? All the teachers go back to work, all the kids go back to school, which means when all the kids go back into school, we have to bring back all the lunch workers and the bus drivers and everybody else that goes along with just the back to school process. So you're going to get some seasonal employment or this is in August and that doesn't necessarily translate to September. So I'm Kevin Warsh. I would probably not make a decision to hike rates

8:13based on the fact that this is one number. The previous months, even though there were rise up, we're still very weak overall. Certainly doesn't suggest the economy's booming on all cylinders. And then we've got this oil price by feeding into inflation, which is transient. And tariffs, which are one time that's transient. So the problem with hiking rates here is that I hike rates and all of a sudden, the back-end effect of this stuff comes in, the second derivatives, and all of a sudden I'm forced to cut rates. And that certainly doesn't look like I know what I'm doing monetary policy was. So my expectation is I don't think he hikes rates, I don't think he cuts rates. I think he acknowledges the data. And it says we want to see a little bit more data first before we make a decision. That's just my best guess I have no idea. Right, right. And also, Worsh is deliberately trying to play. He's cars a lot closer to the best than previous Fed shares. So the fact that you don't know what he's thinking is actually by design more or less. Yeah, that's it. So it's been interesting, because there's been a lot of willy-wont he being discussed

9:14in the markets of late. And the markets are kind of whipsying back and forth. We had Waller come out recently and give some perspective that the market took is pretty dovish. So I'm just curious, what do you take from these almost competing messages from the officials? Well, this is kind of the interesting thing, right? So Kevin Worsh comes in and he says, all right, we want the market to give us the signal. We don't want the market taking the signal from us, which is exactly the way it should be. I mean, honestly, I think, I'm not going to say what I'm thinking. But this is kind of one of those situations where the Fed should be seen and not heard type thing. And the way it used to be. And so markets worked off their normal signals, the more normal fundamentals, and then the Fed did their work at the back, the kind of the dark closet in the back of the house. But we changed all that last 15 years,

10:15and now the markets are solely dependent on this. And now the markets are trying to wean themselves off, which I think is the right movement. And that's why you're seeing a lot of this volatility in the market. The markets are trying to wean themselves off of having this signal from the Fed. But then you have these speakers coming out, giving signals from the Fed, which I'm surprised that Kevin Worsh, sorry, Kevin Worsh, sorry, Kevin Worsh hasn't stopped, just basically put an end to Fed speakers. They should not be out in public. You should not be interviewing them. They should not be talking to Wall Street Journal, because that's undermining the whole thing that Worsh is trying to achieve. Do you think this was a little bit of an end run by Waller? Like do you think he had Worsh's permission to do this, or do you think he just went and did it? No, no, no, I don't think that Worsh has put the hammer down on the Fed speakers, on the Fed members right now, and I said no speaking to anybody, I don't think he's done that yet. So no, I don't think this was an end run. I don't think it was done despite Kevin Worsh. And it just may have gone off with Kevin Worsh's blessing.

11:15Maybe they want a little bit of leakage into the markets, just while they work through this process. Maybe that's part of the game plan. I'm just saying it, having these speakers come out seems to kind of undermine the whole premise you're working on, which is to remove the signal of the Fed from the market. No, absolutely. And of course, as we talked about in the last two weeks, having the treasury going out there and placing it somewhere in interest rates doesn't help either. Exactly. And actually with that treasury operation twist, forgive me for not knowing the real details here, but there's a deadline coming right up here in early September. And it's either when they're going to start the purchases or stop the purchases, I can't remember. This is the whole funny thing. I've been listening to a bunch of people lately talk about the treasury secretaries, thumb on the scale. And I think you were talking with Stephanie Pomboy earlier this week. And she's like, well, you know, the market immediately reversed that whole action. It hasn't started yet. It doesn't start until today.

12:17And then it runs. So the start was today. OK. It's either the fourth of the night. And I'm drawing a blank on the start date. But it didn't even start. I mean, everybody's making these decisions about this treasury action on something that hadn't even began yet. So now we're going to see now to everybody's point. Over the next month, we'll see if whether or not this is of any consequence of the market. But just a clear statement, these buybacks are not new. This is just to operate. This really isn't even operation twist. This is just basically cash balance sheet management. And all the Fed's doing is issuing short paper to buy some long paper. And they're doing that because the rate on the 20 years below over 30 years. So it makes some sense to pull some of these higher rates end for the time being. On the expectation that if the Fed gets inflation back down towards 2%, all those rates are going to come down. Then they can refinance longer at lower rates and lower that interest cost burden on the government. So that's really all that's going on here.

13:18It's just really balance sheet management. But these operations have been going on for years. This operation is small by nature. Previous historical actions by the Fed have been operations by the treasury have been much larger than this one. This is about $4 billion to begin with. It could go more. But this is something that happens all the time. This isn't new. It's not unprecedented. It's not a specific action to try to put the finger on the scale of interest rates. These operations happen all the time. Happen all the time. But this one seems to be a signal to the markets by best. You know, to basically it just something, right? Like, hey, I'm going to get in there. I'm going to do this with the intent of bringing rates down. So if you're a bondage or any or whatever, don't fight me. I think it's not really so much as I'm trying to bring rates down. The term premium because of the oil price spike was, and again, because of all the headlines. And primarily, you know, I talked about last week in our newsletter, the basis trade. And we've got basically 50 hedge funds

14:20that own an 8 1,5% of the treasury market and they're shoving interest rates around because of basically they're leveraging that treasury play. They're shorting heavily against treasuries right now to make money. It's all fine, right? That's what they're in the business of doing. Nothing wrong with that. But that's increasing the term premium too far above the fundamentals. And what Bessons trying to do, in my opinion, is just try to get that term premium reduced back to where it should be over the economic fundamentals that support where interest rates should be trading. OK. Well, we'll see what works. Yeah, that will see what works. And also too, if you think that these big short positions that these hedge funds have, you know, it does mean if things go against them, there could be the opportunity for a big short squeeze in bonds. Yeah. Is that, are you guys placing any bets based on that?

15:23We will eventually. It's too soon to do it right now. Again, so you've got to be careful about two things with fixed income. So we buy fixed income for portfolios to lower volatility, preserve capital, and create income. Right. What most people mistake that is, is that we're trading bonds. And that's not what we do. So, you know, but at some point, when there's a tradable opportunity, and we start to see those shorts have to cover, then I'll purposely go in and buy some long-gravation assets to capture that short covering. But that would be a trade versus portfolio management, which are two very different things. Very different things. Yeah. OK. So last week, we talked about all the potential reasons why a pullback could occur sometime between now and the midterms. So far, S&P is still holding near all time highs.

16:26What are you, I'm just giving you a chance to call an out of all here if you want. What do you think is more likely that we do have this bumpy road between now and the midterms and that there is some dips and rebounds and stuff. Or maybe the S&P's just burning off concerns and is going to bolt to new all time high soon. Do you want to change your call yet or not? Oh, not yet. But here, let's look at this a good reason to go look at the technicals, because this is really what the whole function based on. And by the way, this weekend's new site of this weekend's Bolber Report is a much deeper dive into exactly this question. September seasonality, what's going on within the market breath. Market breath is decently weak. So there are certainly some concerns here, but looking at the technicals, we have to be conscious of two things. One, corrections happen in two banners. They either happen by sideways consolidations, which is exactly what's happening right now. It happened over the lat, back in April and May in particular,

17:29and then we've been in this consolidation now for the last, really kind of really since July. I've just been in month of August, just been stuck in this kind of sideways move. But those are corrections. And you'll notice that previously momentum was at very high level. We market traded sideways for a while. We worked off a big chunk of that momentum, triggered a buy signal, the market broke out, and then when sideways, and we're working off that overbought condition, we're working off the relative strength, and the market's holding up pretty well here. So technically, the market is correcting. We're just not getting the decline that everybody was expecting. And does it mean that that risk is off the table? I still think there's downside risk to this, where this black line is, which is these previous highs. So we get a correct, and we actually just did correct back to that bounce off to that very nicely a couple of days ago, had a nice rally in the markets, pulling back a little bit today on the employment news. But we got back above the 20 day moving average. Really, everything is pretty bullish for the markets overall right now.

18:29Very strong or an exestimates are very strong. Ford guidance is very strong. Economic data has been good. So there's really no reason for the markets to be declining really sharply here. But we are starting to see over the next month or two. And again, this is the subject this weekend's article. We've got the largest options expiration on the third Friday of this month that we've had on record. So there's going to be a lot of turnover potential volatility in the market as those options have to be rewritten and rolled out. That's going to be across all asset classes from stocks to precious metals to everything, right? All those options are going to come do. And then all that stuff's got to get rewritten. So there's definitely some bias there for a pickup and volatility also starting today, the blackout window begins for corporate buybacks. Now that's not selling, right? That's not corporations aren't selling stock, but they're just not going to be buying as much stock. So that kind of that buying support from corporations

19:29is going to fade over the next couple of weeks. So that's going to leave the market a little bit vulnerable to headline risk, geopolitical risk, concern risk. We're also running into the end of the quarter. So a quarter in rebalancing as well. So that's going to be a potential risk. So the point is is that if you're expecting to 10, 15, 20% decline, I think that's getting wrong out of the market because of this consolidation. But a correction back to the 50 day moving average, maybe the 100 day moving average, which would be 3 to 5%. Certainly isn't off the table right now. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability varies 18 plus. Class it up with Crocs.

20:31You know back to school is coming in fast. So why wait to find your new faith footwear? Step into a local Crocs store and step into your new look. Try it. Style it. Make it yours. Because the right pair doesn't just show up. It shows off. First day fits, handled. Walk out ready for whatever's next. Visit your nearest Crocs store today. All right. Great. Thank you. It's the helpful specificity. And of course, this is your best estimation based on the current data, which changes every week. So we'll have you back on next week to call not a bull again, if necessary. You mentioned that Brett is not looking so good. That was sort of a story earlier this year was that, hey, we're actually starting to see the equal way start to outperform the market weight S&P. We're seeing these signs of life finally across other parts of the economy. It's not just an AI driven rally solely.

21:34But now it seems that the breath is starting to shrink again. Correct. It's weakening, right? RSP has been underperforming. We've seen underperforming a bit. So I just suggest there's some weakness. And if you take a look at the heat map today as a good example, markets are down. But semiconductors are up and videos up and then kind of a weakness is in the rest of the market. So we just continue to see, this is what's made it very difficult to manage money this year, in particular, is because there's no trend that stays consistent for a very long period. I mean, technology today is down and staples are up. And then tomorrow, technology is running off to the moon and staples are getting sold off. And there's really no rhyme or reason why. And we've just seen these very rapid rotations within the markets. A lot of it's headline risk. A lot of it's just positioning. And you have to remember that there's so much of this market today that's driven by computerized

22:36trading algorithms and systemic trading that when these headlines hit within a millisecond, it takes off the jobs report today. So you're a retails investor sitting at home. Headline comes out. You're sitting here trying to read the headline. And by the time you've read the headline, that the 162,000 jobs were created today, that's the whole headline. By the time you read that, these systemic algorithms have already read the headline, analyze the data, looked at forward returns on earnings, estimated future projections on earnings growth based on this data, what Fed policy might be, what geopolitical policy might be, from that headline. And then they've already placed trades across multi-blastet classes, currencies, gold, everything else. By the time you read the headline. So and all this happens very quickly. So this is why you see these very big shifts within the markets. And today that headline's running the algorithms. Tomorrow a different headline's going to run the algorithms with push them right back into the trade they just sold off today. And that's what makes it so difficult as an investor

23:39when you're sitting at home trying to manage your own money is these rapid rotations, you're saying, well wait, my thesis on my fundamentals are this and this stock's getting absolutely crushed today. It has nothing to do with the fundamentals. It had to do with a headline, good example, Palantir. Two days ago, Palantir's a headline out about Google getting into the defense AI space. Palantir sells off 4%. The next day there's an earnings report that comes out from Palo Alto Networks and the stocks up 10%. Right? So yesterday I sold it because of the headline and the next day it's up 10% because of another headline. That's not fundamentals driving that narrative. And that's what makes it so difficult to weather these types of consolidations in the markets and why so many investors. This is where investors start to make the most mistakes because their portfolio's not going anywhere because the market's not going anywhere. And they're like, I need to do something. I need to take some action.

24:39Sometimes the best action take is not to do anything. A lot of times the best action take. And I imagine too, there's a little bit of desperation there. Things aren't going the way I thought they would. I got to do something, but man, nothing I'm trying is working, right? Exactly. Yeah. And that's what happens. In this type of a market, you jump from the frying pran into the fire like repeatedly. You buy what work today and that's the thing that doesn't work tomorrow. So you just completely behind the ball. So let me ask you a high level question about this. So over the course of our careers, we have seen technology really become dominant in just how Wall Street operates. And we're now down, I mean, if you've read the book, Flash Boys by Michael Lewis, which came out what, like 12 years ago now, 10 years ago. I mean, it's like old news now, right? That was the battle for not milliseconds, but microseconds, right?

25:39And really, these algos can do, these high frequency trading algos can trade basically a lifetime's worth of trading for human. And the time it takes a human to blink their eyes, basically. I mean, it's, I think it's really literally unimaginable for us how fast they process and how fast they can operate. But it's not just that. It's also latency. And this is where institutions are trying to put their computers as close to the exchange as possible because it takes nanoseconds for data to travel from the exchange to your computer, right? So a good example, I'm in Houston. The computers are in New York. It may take 1 1 millionth of a nanosecond for that data to get here, but the guy that's sitting right next door to that data gets it faster. Yeah, thanks for flashlights was all about. It's basically a war being fought over the speed of light. That is. Yeah.

26:40So you're trying to play that game. And this is, look, and this is why it's really important to not do not play that game. If you're managing your own money and a headline comes out like today, wait and let the market just react to it. And then see where the market stabilizes, see what happens next because once the algorithms make their transactions, then the rest of the market begins to measure how accurate those projections and actions by the algorithms were. And that's why a lot of times you'll see the market open down sharply, then rally, right? Then yeah. And that's saying that the algorithm is wrong. So again, it's always good pause, take a breath, step away, go do something else, and then come back and analyze the data for the market. And this is my technical. If you learned some basic technical analysis, it will save your world of grief. All right. So this is that was in my sort of decision tree of questions here. So I guess I'll pull that one up first,

27:41which is in this modern era, where who has the advantages on the technology, right? Who's writing these algorithms? Who's hiring PhDs to write these algorithms? Who is buying rights away so that they can dig a cable that has the most direct straight line of access to the servers at the exchanges, all that stuff? Can a human really day trade this environment? Well, look, let's step back to reality for just a second. Right? I was reading a report. I actually posted an ex-post this one. Let me see if I can find the short break. This is a little bit off topic, but it'll tie back in. If you'll just give me a bear with me for just a moment. Yeah, go ahead. So this was, I posted this this morning. There was a chart out this morning. This is the number of 401K created millionaires hits a fresh record high. And of course, if you overlay this to a stock market chart,

28:44they look almost identical. And that's just because people that have invested in 401Ks are participating in the rise in the market. And the market's going up. OK, so let's just round it. That's 800,000 accounts. It's not. It's about 780. But let's say 800,000. Fidelity manages 28.5 million 401K plans. So that 800,000 is 3% of all the accounts that Fidelity manages, right? That are a million dollars. Now, you break down into the averages, and you break down into the medians, the average balance is about $155,000. But that average is skewed by that 3%. By these guys. Yeah, you got your accounts, right? So you look at the median, that's $32,000 to $34,000 in a 401K plan. Now, this is the bulk of people's retirement savings in the country, right? Now, real quick, this is just Fidelity. This is not Vanguard. This is not Schwab. This is just sample set of Fidelity.

29:45This isn't saying everybody is this way. But Fidelity is a big provider in this part. It's a good sample set. And I'm sure the data is probably very similar at Vanguard and very similar Schwab. But I don't want you getting a bunch of hate mail in the chat because of whatever. But anyway, just, so let's take this back to what I was going to do, the actual topic. Back in the 90s, when you and I were growing up, this is going to be very foreign to a lot of people. But stocks traded in eights. So I went to buy a stock, it traded at $32,000, $32,000 in eight, $32,000 in a quarter, $32,000, $38,000, $32,000, and a half. And when I bought that stock, there was a commission tied to it from the broker that sold it to me. So I had my stock broker at Merrill Ranch or wherever I was. I would buy the stock. I would pay a $25 commission, whatever it was, to buy that stock, and then I'd buy an eights. Well, starting in 2000, we decided, let's do this.

30:48Let's decimalize the whole system so we can buy in pennies rather than eights. We said, OK, this is all kind of a great thing. This is awesome, right? So we can get even closer pricing to the actual price by using decimalization. Then we said, hey, better yet. Let's get rid of commissions and just let everybody trade for free. So all this did was remove all the roadblocks from trading. Let me just add one more important one, which was back in the 90s and earlier. The only way you got access to livestock prices during the day was if you were a stockbroker or if you were paying up to get a Bloomberg machine, you had to wait until the newspaper came out the next morning to see what you're stocked in the past 24 hours. Yeah, you're right. And that's very important because when an earnings announcement came out, it took two or three days for it to filter down into the stock. And so my point is that decimalization in the internet access, everything we've done to speed up the flow of information

31:48from the companies to individuals has exacerbated the amount of trading that individuals do. And study after study after study tells you that if you trade often, you are going to wind up underperforming the market because you're going to lose more than you make on your trades most of the time. And that's what every study tells you. And this has been done over the course of decades these studies have come out. And they all conclude the same way. And that's exactly what happens at 401K plants. People don't contribute enough. They trade too actively in their 401K plans. And that was another problem we did with 401K plans. We said, hey, we'll give you brokerage access. Go trade your brains out in your brokerage. Right. And all that's done is just erode the ability for people to actually financially save and invest longer term for the retirement and has really reduced the economic prosperity of a vast majority of Americans through what we've done for the benefit of Wall Street, not the retail investor. So I agree with all that. I'm going to come back to my question though.

32:49And you can take this screen for what we're talking. Oh, I'm sorry. I thought I did. No worries. So my sort of follow up question to this, which I'll bring into the conversation now, is if the debt is too stacked against the human day trader these days, can you still make money as a human investor going with more of these broad trends that we're talking about? Obviously, I believe we can. That's why we have this whole channel here. But my opinion, I'm curious if you share it, is just one of the reasons why I started this platform is I was working at Yahoo when a lot of the changes you just mentioned happened, Lance. And in fact, one of my first premium products at Yahoo Finance that I was selling was Real-Time Stock Quotes. So Yahoo Finance had quotes on a delay, which the general public saw.

33:51But you could pay extra money to remove the delay and actually see Real-Time Stock Quotes. So of course, this is all for free. So we're just super spoiled right now. But I created the Thalph Money platform because there was access to information and insight that pretty much Wall Street kept within its wall garden. And what I want to do with this channel is make sure that the average investor gets access to that, gets to hear what the specialists think, whether they're active traders or investors or whether they're big-time economists like the Lacey Hunts of the World, whatever. So I believe what I'm hopefully doing here is empowering the regular investor to increase their odds of meeting their investment goals. But that's on sort of insights. On the technology, I think there's just a massive asymmetry that's only gotten worse where the Wall Street firms just have so much of a technological advantage

34:52that if you wanted to compete with them, you'd need to start with fresh billions in capital and some of the smartest PhDs in the world. Like the average guy's not going to have that. So I kind of feel like, don't even try. I mean, you're just going up against the superpower on technologically that you're just not going to be able to beat. So when you talk about how fast these algorithms can work and make decisions and trade and whatnot, you are light years behind them on the information flow when you're like, oh, I just saw a headline. Let me react to that. So do you agree with that or do you think I'm going to be? This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility

35:52and availability varies 18 plus. Class it up with Crocs. You know back to school is coming in fast. So why wait to find your new faith footwear? Step into a local Crocs store and step into your new look. Try it. Style it. Make it yours. Because the right pair doesn't just show up. It shows off. First day fits, handled. Walk out ready for whatever's next. Visit your nearest Crocs store today. Absolutely. And look, this is why, and here, let me just share this real quick. And by the way, I don't think day trading really that great of thing to do anyways. I think the risks are piled against you in general, but with this technological super advantage that the Wall Street Titans have, I just wouldn't even try. Yeah, so I've started. I'm in last Monday, I published chapter three of our five-part series on investing for the long term. And this is specifically to your point, right?

36:52Yes. Can the investor use the markets to enhance their wealth? Absolutely 100%. Look, just buying, I'm not a fan of buying hold. And this article, this whole series of articles is why buying hold doesn't actually work for most people long term. Has a lot to do with when you're entering markets, what your timeframe is, what your durations are. A lot of, there's a lot of variables. They go into it. And we see these charts all the time. And this is one of my favorites that gets thrown out. It's like, look. Can you blow it up? Yes. Look, if you just invest into the markets, look at that. The percentage returns are on the upside are huge. And look at those draw downs. You can barely see the draw downs in the market. Well, the problem with that, that's percentages, right? And if you have 100% gain and you lose 50% or 1000% gain and you lose 50% of 1000% gain, how much did you just lose in your portfolio, right? And so, but this is one of the myths that get thrown around. First of all, you don't have 130 years

37:55to invest in the markets. You've only got from today until you retire. So valuations are at 40 times earnings today. What does that tell us about future? If I'm 50 today and I'm going to retire at 65 and I'm investing today at 40 times earnings, that's a negative 2.6% rate of return over the next 10 years based on those valuations. I'll be 60 at that point. And I've made no money for 10 years. In theory, this is just the man. But in theory, I'll always 10 years making no money just buying and holding the markets. That doesn't mean I have to day trade either, but I can be much more prudent. And I just want you to show you the other side of this. This is that same chart reconfigured in points rather than percentages. You see the problem now? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You basically give up almost what you gained in the prior bull run, yeah. Exactly. So when you start is very important. But look, I'm not a fan of buying hold. But if you want to get, if you just want to get average market returns, right?

38:56And you're OK with that. And you're OK with the volatility of the markets going up and down. And you're at low valuations, say, post 2008, right? The last 16 years have been awesome for buying hold. So if you have the low valuation starting in, buying SAP index and just dollar cost average into it, and you're probably going to do OK, starting it at 40 times earnings, that risk inverts on you. So we're not to be, we still want to buy in hold. We still want to be longer term investors. But we need to be more conscious about where we're investing. And again, this is why we start talking about fixed income. If I can buy bonds paying 5% on average right now, either corporate or treasuries. And I can lock in a 5% rate of return over the next 10 years. That's a hell of a lot better than the negative 2.6. If I can buy good quality dividend yielding stocks that are yielding 2, 2 and 1 half percent, that's a lot better than the negative 2.6 percent. That doesn't include equity growth. And if I manage the risk in my portfolio

39:57by, you know, monitoring what's happening in markets, reducing my exposure when needed, increasing my exposure when needed, not day trading. These are small adjustments over a long period of time. But controlling my risk profile within my portfolio, I look, I'm not going to beat the S&P in necessarily from one year to the next. But I'm probably going to be able to beat that negative 2.6, 2.6% rate of return over the next 10 years by being just a little bit prudent about how I invest and navigate the markets. Yeah. Well, look, I, we're seeing from the same song sheet to maybe some people who were a little surprised, but you're saying, you know, I don't like buying hold. I think a big reason for that and correct me if I'm wrong is as I've said many times, the average retail investor that most of their decisions are on buying the stock. Yeah. Here's an opportunity I see in the market.

40:57I think the stock's undervalued for whatever reason or I see a catalyst coming, I think it's going to give it a pop. I'm getting into this thing, right? What they don't have is a strong thoughtful process for when to sell the stock. They usually don't put a sale price out there. They just kind of say it's like pornography. Like when I know it, I'll see it. When I see it, I'll know it, right? And what tends to happen is over time you accumulate the stocks and your portfolio, where you kind of look at the portfolio, even if they're doing well, but you're kind of like, wow, why do I own this stock again? Right. But you keep it in there because it's not, you know, performing disastrously. And I agree. I think that's where a lot of, you know, average retail investors get themselves in the trouble is they put a lot of thought into getting in, but not a lot of thought into getting out. And this is where I think like a, you know, it's one of the big reasons why I think having your accounts managed by a professional advisor, like your firm, Lancer, RIA, is because you guys do that every week.

41:58You guys have a portfolio management meeting. You sit down with Michael Liebowitz and you literally go through every holding and say, do we want to keep this given what's going on here, right? Is there original thesis still in place? What's the latest news? So you're constantly looking for reasons to sell, basically, your holdings to just make sure that you haven't held them, you know, they're not getting beyond their expiration date. And that's, that's a real important factor that I think a financial advisor brings. And look, you can do that as a DOI investor. It just takes the more stocks you own. It just takes a lot of time. Yeah, it does. And there's so many and city and cityist mistakes that we made. You mentioned a really good one, right? I bought it and it goes up, but I don't really have a plan to execute it or take profits or anything like that. And then the other side of that happens is the stock I had a big gain in and we've seen a lot of stocks like this recently. I was buying, you know, I bought a semiconductor stock a month ago and it went up and I was doing great. Now I've lost 50% of my position because, you know, the semiconductor stock, you know, contracted.

43:00And now I don't want to sell it because I don't want to take the loss. And so I wind up with this whole portfolio full of losers eventually because I don't write a lot of them because I don't want to take the loss. That's, that's, you know, loss of version is another big part. And then that five part series actually, the part two of that is all about psychology. It's all about the risk of loss, hurting behaviors, loss of version, all those things that feed into our portfolio management, which leads us to underperform over time. And look, and look, I'll be honest, again, I said, I'm not a fan of buying hold. I'm not a fan of buying hold at 40 times earnings. I'm a huge fan of buying hold at 15 times earnings. Right. Right. I'm sorry, but on this topic, just we this and your answer, your partner there in crime, Mike Liebelwitz, just wrote a post this week called Market valuation, expensive caper ratio or cheap price to earnings growth ratio. Right. Do you want to clarify that? It sounds like that's the tricky part right now, right? Is we have things that seem overvalued on one metric

44:02but undervalued on another. Right. So this is the big debate, right? So there's a lot of people that run around right now and they're going, oh, look at KP. KP is at 40 times earnings. I don't want to buy the market here. Completely great. That's looking backwards in time at earnings. Peg ratio is price to earnings growth. It's looking at the forward earnings growth rate for Nvidia. So let's just have a video for a second. A couple of years ago, the Peg ratio for Nvidia was extremely high. And everybody's like, oh, the stock is so expensive. It is never going to be able to grow those earnings. And now that stock trades at an extremely cheap Peg ratio because it exceeded all of those earnings growth expectations. So as long as those forward earnings estimates come in, and right now analysts are very optimistic over the next couple of years about very strong earnings growth, the market is technically cheap on the earnings growth

45:06estimates over the next two years due to the economy, due to cap expending, due to all the things are going on, the markets actually the cheapest has been in like 20 years. The trick, though, is what happens if something comes along like a recession and those earnings growth estimates drop? All of a sudden, that market becomes extremely expensive, very quick rate, right? So it's important. So no matter what valuation measure you're using, it's important to understand what those dynamics are telling you. High cap ratios tell me lower forward returns, low PE, low peg ratios tell me I've got a value today. If those earnings growth estimates come into fruition. So far, that's been the case, but something will happen. Always happens. Always does, yeah. That changes that earnings growth outlook. So again, just because I buy cheap Peg doesn't mean it's going to be cheap Peg forever. Ever. That's why I have to learn how to sell as well as buy. Yeah. And this is, so I think I represent a lot of viewers here because I share this psychology, which may be detrimental.

46:10But I'm just putting it out there. So I share the concern that you just raised, right? Which is, this is, I don't know if this is an appropriate analogy or not. But let's say you buy yourself a fancy sports car. And you're a regular person. You're not an F1 driver, right? So you're not entirely sure how fast you should drive this thing. So you keep slowly creeping up the speed, right? And car ride smooth. Feel like I got it road straight. And so you just keep creeping up the speed, but you feel more and more confident that the future is going to look like the past, right? And eventually, you're cranking this thing at 180. And if there's any flub in there, the engine blows a gas kit. There's a hairpin turn in the road, whatever. You're going to slam into that problem, doing 180 miles now. And that's the kind of fear I have right now around the AI earnings projections.

47:10They've been so good for so long. And they have been met often enough that now everybody's just kind of all in with the confidence. But to your point, trees don't go to the sky. At some point, there's going to be a monkey wrench thrown into this thing that I fear that AI, part of the market, it's just going to hit it, you know, 100 plus miles an hour. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser. But Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online makes sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability varies 18 plus. Pass it up with Crocs. You know back to school is coming in fast. So why wait to find your new faith footwear? Step into a local Crocs store and step into your new look. Try it. Style it. Make it yours.

48:11Because the right pair doesn't just show up. It shows off. First day fits, handled. Walk out ready for whatever's next. Visit your nearest Crocs store today. And it may very well be the case, but that also might not be for five years. Right. Exactly. And like I said, this is psychology. This is just a feel, right? It's a fear. I don't know if irrational or not. Well, and again, this is why, look, if you're interested in learning about more about this, part two of that articles on our website, if you just put up the search bar and investor psychology up here, it'll pull up all the articles. But in part two or five, we actually go through all of the psychological kind of fallacies that we trap ourselves into. And just we allow these headlines. And we've talked a lot here on the show about be careful of narratives, be careful of headlines, be careful of people promoting a point without doing the actual underlying work. Because again, a lot of stuff that you

49:13read isn't necessarily true. And a lot of stuff that is put out there to race fears and to promote a service or whatever or kind of only half the story a lot of time. And it doesn't actually look at the other half. So it's always important to make sure to analyze both sides of every story, understand what you're getting yourself into, and try to put that confirmation bias behind you, trying to get wrapped up into anchoring, which is where we fixate on a certain level of a stock or a portfolio without you. And I'm just stuck on that number. And if I'm below that number, I'm miserable. If I'm above that number, I'm happy. And what's so funny, too, is people will anchor in a number, right? I'm in this thing until it hits $100 a share. And the data can start getting sour, but you're still anchored to that $100 a share. But what's so funny is with a lot of people serendipity intervenes. And wow, it just blew through $100 a share. They don't say, great, sell.

50:14No, they go numbers 200. Yeah, now it's like the ring of power. Oh, well, how high can this thing go? I don't want to give it up, right? Yeah, and not to you, but I think one of the biggest mistakes that investors make in anchoring is they anchor to their portfolio value. So they go, well, my portfolio value yesterday was $100,000. And today the market's down to $98,000. And oh my god, I'm losing money. And I've got to do something. It's the losing money. But the portfolio at the beginning of the year was only $75,000. And they anchor every day at this new high water market in the portfolio. But then as soon as you take a little bit of a clip, you're making all these rash decisions because of market volatility, when you should be anchoring back on, again, I recommend all our clients. Look at where your portfolio was three years ago. Anchor on that number. And that way when we have these wiggles in the market, and you go, yeah, I'm still up 75% from where I was three years ago. I'm OK. I can stand a little bit of a wrinkle in the markets

51:17and make better decisions that way. Right. But of course, that's not human nature. And this is prospect theory, which can't even win the Nobel Prize for. Green fear of the two biggest emotions in investing. But people feel the pain of a loss twice as much emotionally as they feel the joy of a gain. And the thing is, is when you've got the bit in your teeth and greed is running in the street, you just don't think that way. But then all of a sudden, when you get surprised by an unexpected decline, you think the world is ending. And then as you said, that's when you start to make super rash decisions. Panic selling, all that. Yeah. OK. All right. Super fun discussion. I've got to get us back on track here. So when I was talking about the challenges here right now where the S&P is still near all time highs, but there are these concerns and breath is deteriorating, all that stuff, are you hedging? I think you might have mentioned that last time we

52:19talked that you would either just bought some S&P puts or you were thinking about it. I know the guys at New Harbor from interviewing them two days ago that they have put some puts on their portfolio. They haven't reduced their equity exposure yet. But they have put some puts on their portfolio. And also really cheap right now to buy them. Absolutely. In fact, that's part of this weekend's newsletter is going through that is that nobody wants puts. So that insurance is very cheap. And yes, we've been dollar cost averaging a bit. And so we have one port. Again, I don't want my clients to listen to this show as well as others. We run a lot of different portfolios. We have a portfolio structure that uses options in it. And in that portfolio structure, we've been adding S&P puts and we'll probably add some more on Monday just because they are so cheap. And again, that insurance is probably, I hope that insurance winds up worthless because that means the rest of the portfolio is doing great. Just like you hope your fire insurance never just

53:22used, yeah. Exactly. But yeah, so yeah, certainly doing that. And the rest of our portfolios, we've kind of shifted duration within the bond portfolio. We've raised a bit of cash. We've rebalanced portfolios a couple of weeks ago and took in some profits. We're probably going to do some more work on Monday, just kind of rejegging some things and kind of increasing defensive value just a bit. So again, just kind of working around the fringes. Again, the market's not going down. It's not going up either. It's just stuck. So all we're doing is really just hedging downside volatility risk until we can get through the midterm elections. And then the end of this year, November, December, we should have a fairly strong advance in the markets and right now Goldman's got an 8,000 target. I think the gentleman you interviewed a couple of weeks ago. Hard to Newton from Fundstrad. Yeah, very similar. Yeah. I think he's an 8,000 target. I'm not. Yeah, I'm sorry. The expect volatility between now and the midterm, so that rush to the $800, he expects

54:23is going to come after the elections. Exactly. And we've got to send the 900 target on the S&P. So that's kind of our goal for the year. OK, all right. I'm going to ask you to speculate here. I'm not going to hold you to this obviously, but just curious what your God is telling you. Does I suck at speculating? Yeah. Well, does anybody great at consistently? All right. So the midterms we've been talking about in my year, they're now starting to get pretty close. Yeah. I think they're literally two months from today, right? Right. So if there's going to be uncertainty in the market, we're going to start seeing it soon. We should start seeing soon. So what do you expect between now in the midterms? And I'll just give a couple of potential things that could happen. Sure. We could see Wall Street become less risk-seeking. Right? It just says, hey, look, I'm not sure how this is going to go. I'm just going to de-risk a bit until the dust settles.

55:25And then I'll start going big long now that I know what the outcome is. Do we expect the administration to try to reduce some of the things right now that are causing uncertainty to the market, most notably, maybe de-escalating what's going on with Iran? Or do they pull some rabbit out of the hat to lower gas prices or give people confidence that gas prices are coming down the short term? They did the big announcement about Venezuela. But if that deal holds and runs as expected, we're not going to see an impact on gas prices for years and years after. But it doesn't mean there's something else that can't do. Yeah. All of the above. Look, the administration is not stupid. They know that going into an election is that people vote with a pocketbook. So inflation is certainly a problem with regards to voters. The Iran situation is certainly a problem with voters.

56:25And this is probably one of the reasons that I think there's a decently high probability that Republicans lose the house. They'll probably keep the Senate, but they'll probably lose the house. We'll see. I mean, look, everything's up for grabs. Right. I think what I've heard though is the Democrats need to win four seats to take over the house. And that's not a lot. It's not what I'm saying. It's not a lot. And there's certainly, and look, even though I don't agree with it, the Democratic Socialist Movement, the DSA, they've got a lot of momentum going. And so we have to at least be cognizant of the momentum that they're building. And two Democrats have outraged. Like AOC has vastly outraged her competitor in the race. We're seeing the Democrats in general have outraged Republicans as well on the most part. Now, these are not predictive of outcomes. It's just the facts of what's going on. Poles are terrible, right? Poles are never right. So whatever poll you see today that says, oh, this person's going to win this race or this person's going to win this race,

57:26those are historically very wrong. And so be careful with the polls, because that's been wrong for so long. But look, back from my point, I think there's a decent risk that the House flips. The Senate remains the same. That's going to give us political gridlock, even more so than we have now, which Wall Street will like, by the way, that's great. So I think that's a good thing. But I think it does start to really throw a ranch into the Trump agenda and the stuff that he's been trying to get done. To your point, I think there's a reasonable possibility that the next couple of weeks, maybe three weeks, something is going to happen. There's been some tidbits of drops from the administration about what's going on with Iran, the pressure moves, those type of things. So I think in the next three weeks, I would not be surprised to see a new negotiation starting to happen to try to get a little bit of leverage going into the election. Yeah. Honestly, just specifically with Iran,

58:28I don't think people really believe anything anymore. If they sign another MOU tomorrow, people are like, it's just going to get torn up. Right? I'm not sure there's much they can do on Iran to change people's mindset. And honestly, I'm totally guessing here. Yeah. I'm pretty sure, every way I think about this, knowing what we know of Trump, he's just waiting for the elections to go over to deliver whatever kuda grass. He thinks he might want to try to do with Iran. Like, I don't think he's just going to walk away and just say, well, I gave it a good old college try. You know, I think he's very much going to see this through. I don't know what the end game looks like. Right. I don't think it's going to be just throw your hands up and walk away type thing. Right. But it might be. I can easily see, you know, negotiating their ceasefire or whatever and just letting it lie for two months. I am curious though, if we, I don't think this is going to happen, but something like this could happen, which is, you know, we rather than, you know, releasing from the SPR

59:34as we've been doing for a long time, we could just be, the government can maybe just step in and just start subsidizing the cost of gas in the US. Or could, could send, you know, checks to households for gas. I hope he doesn't ask. He's not seriously sure. He's your gas voucher, you know, you use this. But, but, but, you know, Americans who, that would be a very positive memory in people's mind when they're going to pull the lever, which is, oh my God, I, the thing I care about most, gas prices, I just got free, you know, 300 bucks a gas this month. Yeah. Well, you know, what I hope is, and this is my only hope, is that people will vote more for policy rather than idea, ideology. And the DSA is certainly not the path that we want to go down economically. In fact, I've, you know, we wrote that piece last weekend about capitalism versus democratic socialism. Yeah. And there's so many mis, there's so many misunderstandings by the average person about what you're voting for.

1:00:37And, you know, it's unfortunate that a, so many of our politicians are economically illiterate and b, that so many, you know, so many people in general are economically illiterate. And I don't mean that derogatoryly at all. It's just we don't study economics. We don't really, you go to college, you have like one class in economics, right? We don't really understand the impact of our choices that we make as consumers and the impact on the economy. And then those policies that we vote for can make those outcomes far worse. And if we were more educated about what those policies actually meant historically, what's been done, what's happened, what the outcomes are, you know, I think we'd make better choices at the voting booth and unfortunately, just don't. Well, totally agree. And folks, if they've seen it, I was interviewed on Dave Rubin's podcast platform, specifically all about that, that was the whole thing we talked about, which is, you know, that we don't get financial literature, good financial education

1:01:37in our schooling systems. And the wise of that and also the, what are the repercussions of that, right? So it's, it's, if you want to deep dive into that subject, folks, go go watch that video with Dave. But, so coming, I just prepare folks coming up to the election. I'm not a political expert or anything like that. And even a political expert, I don't think should be telling you how to vote. So I'm not, I'm certainly not going to be telling you who to vote for. I've got two messages that I will be pushing just to prepare everybody. One is get out and go vote, right? You know, you don't vote, don't complain. Exactly. If you don't vote, don't complain about the outcome. And generally, the party that wins is the party that's able to mobilize the most voters. So just get your voice heard, whatever your, you know, personal positions are. The one thing where I will put my, my thumb on the scale with this audience is just sharing my personal opinion that socialism is not the

1:02:42answer. And people will take that as an anti-democrat position. It's not, but to your point, the DSA is on the upswing in this party. And I'm not trying to say, you know, specifically don't vote for DSA person. But I just will say, you know, nothing good comes from, in my opinion, socialism over the long run. And we have way too many examples in history to prove that. And capitalism is the model that has brought the greatest amount of prosperity to the far greatest amount of people in human history. Is capitalism running perfectly right now? No, it'd be the first one to say that. But the focus should be on fixing what we know works versus turning to what we know doesn't work. Right. So, well, and this, and this goes back to my point, which is when you go to the voting booth, this happened decades ago, but we stopped voting for policy.

1:03:42We started voting for people. And look, if you don't like President Trump, that's fine. There's nothing wrong with that. I don't like him personally either, right? But the policy agenda is what I pay attention to. I'll vote Democrat. I'll vote Republican. I'll vote independent. I vote for the best person that has the best policy that's running for office. Right. And that's what you should be voting for is this this guy, this guy or girl, right? Gowl woman, whatever. This is two spirit, you know, or two spirit exactly. Is this person that I'm voting for? Do they have the right ideas? Do they have the right mentality of promoting an agenda that is going to benefit me and my neighborhood, my family and those type of things? We've spent too much time just voting based on personalities. And that's not really has not gotten us anywhere and continues not going to get us anywhere. And we keep putting people back in office that are clearly not working for our best benefit, right? I mean, do you start talking about congressmen and senators? Why are some of them still there?

1:04:42Right. You know, they're clearly not voting and promoting policy that is in the best interest of even their own constituents. They know they fight back against the administration just because they don't like the administration, but they quail a lot of things that would have actually probably been good economic policy for their own constituents. And you know, that's we've got to get back to voting for the reason that we vote is to have where a representative or public, which means your voice matters. And we should be electing people into office that represent our best wishes. Right. Which also means we need to hold them accountable to the great care that most about every election you should hold them accountable. Stop voting for the same person just because they're in office. You don't know who the people are. Right. Right. And it's just have to add to your rant about, you know, politicians, you know, that's often not clear that they're working in their constituents best interest. Not clear that some of them are still alive.

1:05:45I think it's like Mitch McConnell, you know, it's just we can do Bernie's. Yeah, I mean, it's just bananas that, you know, somebody has has clearly had such a clearly debilitating health issue. And besides one proof of life photo where he's holding a newspaper, like no one's heard from him. No one seen him. He's saying I'm not going to make it back into office until, you know, a couple of months from now, I think it would surprise no one if that then stretches in the next year. Like nobody that can't come into the office on a daily basis as a Congress person should be in that seat. Yeah. So the other problem is the other problem that we've done is is that we've changed. You were supposed to serve the government as a duty, right? And we've made this a career for these guys. And this is why we've talked about the need for term limits. But these are very lucrative career. That's why I'm saying this should not be a lucrative career. I mean, maybe you pay him 35,000 a year, whatever.

1:06:48But they're doing, you know, they're, they're serving their country because they believe in the country. They believe in the policies they believe in being involved. They should not be creating. We should not be taking somebody like a junior congressman that is, you know, basically barely making ins meet and then five years later, there are multi-millionaires. That should not be happening in Congress. Right. Right. And, you know, through a very well oiled pat here, right? Okay, you do this. You do this. You do this. You're going to get on a fat, you know, board payment at when you come out. Right. It's just, it's not, actually, we talked about this at your first Houston conference a few years ago because you had a gentleman whose name I'm forgetting, but who is a big political analyst? Right. And I asked him about this and, you know, what's the biggest issue when you boil all down and he was just like money and politics? Yeah. No idea. We get it out. But we've got to read it out. Yeah. Look, I'm a huge fan. We should get rid of lobbies. There should be no such thing as a lobby. There should be no packs.

1:07:48Corporations should not have the ability to donate to political campaigns. Corporations are not people. They are not entities. And they're technically an entity because of a corporation, but they're not people. They should not have a vote in Congress and being able to contribute to congressmen at such large scales, you know, erodes the value of the vote of the individual. And so we need to get rid of all this extra money out of politics and get this back to the voters to where individuals carry the weight. And then in that case, politicians would focus on the individual saying, I need your vote, right? I'm going to come to say these in shake hands because I need your vote because I'm not getting it from anywhere else. Yeah. All right. So that was not the rent today. Sorry. I apologize. I don't want to get to politics, but sorry. Okay. So, um, all right. I mean, ask you a question. Yes. You might feel passionately about it. If you can, I'll keep a short box your answer into four minutes or so. And then we'll get to your trades and we'll do the, the, the, the,

1:08:49I can save you four minutes. I don't have any trades this week. They're on Monday. If we do any. Okay. So no trades for the current week. I can slash that off already. Um, so, uh, I did my monthly, uh, outlook update with Stephanie Pomboy this week. And one of the topics that came up there was, um, you know, Stephanie mentioned that, uh, the gold, uh, that America owns, uh, the government owns is valued on its balance sheet. I can't remember exactly. I guess maybe $42 now. It's something like that. Um, and it's been that way. I mean, I don't know when the land since like the 40s. Yeah. So I asked her the question, why do we do that? What do we do to get back to the value? Um, to have a reflect a more accurate, uh, valuation of what the country actually owns. Um, and she said, I, I'm kind of mystified on that too. You then sent me an email, um, saying, Hey, you know, guys, you're ignoring XYZ.

1:09:49I got to be honest. I didn't read the full email just because it's been such a nutty week. So I wanted to give me a chance to educate me live here. I'm sure a lot of other viewers have that same question among. So, so, you know, it's, it's fixed in statute. It's, it's not a choice. So all right, let's back up just so everybody's on the same pitch. The gold stock that we have in the country is valued at $42. Just, uh, announced, right? Not 40. It's 42. 22 to be exact. And that's due to statute. And that was just just to compare that's, it's current market value. It was 100 times that now. Exactly. And that was under, and I'm reading this part just so I get all the numbers correct. It's under, uh, title 31 USC code 116 to 170, 51 16 and 51 17. And that was established in 1973. And it's been unchanged ever since. And so legal opinion is, is really kind of split over all this. And it's, you know, whether the Treasury Secretary could simply, and this is big kind

1:10:51of the calls, I don't understand why, best it just doesn't revalue the gold, right? And that's, that's all fine. And that's under the Treasury Secretary. But, and, and so the debate is really over, can he do that administrative, administratively or since this is set by Congress, do we have to go back through an act of Congress? Now, there's no definitive ruling on that either way. Um, so, you know, step one is going to be, let's just assume that, best it said tomorrow, I'm going to revalue the gold. There's going to be a legal fight, almost immediately. Yes. One is the process, which is can it be done politically, but assume it can. Right. There are certain costs that we would incur by doing this, right? Well, yeah. And so basically if you, you said, you know, the value is about a hundred times what it is on the books, that's about a trillion dollars in value. It's just, that's just assuming you revalue it to today's, you know, closing price, whatever that was. Um, so, you know, you know, that's kind of the part of the commentary that gets kind of

1:11:52glossed over on this. I mean, you know, kind of the gold buds are like, yeah, we need to do this. Right. And because it immediately created a trillion dollars, but that becomes real money only through money printing. And at that point, you're, so let's back up. How does money get created? All money is lent and to exist. Yep. So that's why the government issues debt, the issue debt to create money, banks, issue loans to create money. If you revalue the gold, you literally print money because you just took something at this value and created this value out of it. So now you're actually inflating the monetary supply, which is going to be, you know, kind of an issue. That's a whole nother kind of discussion. It has like zero velocity, right? It's just sitting there gathering dust. Well, not necessarily because this is going to wind up on a TGA, which we just had bests and say we're going to use the TGA to control the bond market and theory, right? We could use, we could use the trillion dollar sitting in the TGA account right now to potentially buy bonds with.

1:12:53And that creates actual monetary velocity because that if you're buying, if I buy the, if you own the bond, right? And I buy the bond from you, I just gave you money that you're going to spend in the economy. So now you are going to affect the monetary supply for that. And so, so the optics are a bit of a trap. So, you know, this has been kind of setting, you know, setting steel for 50 plus years now and all of a sudden we're kind of, you know, marking headlines, you know, about this. But it doesn't solve anything structural, you know, a one time balance sheet markup doesn't touch the deficit trajectory. You revalued an asset that has that really had no intention of selling because it's a reserve asset, which changes the accounting, not the fiscal math, many stretch of the imagination. And that's really why the Treasury has repeatedly said no to doing this, even to make goal, you know, record goal prices and, you know, kind of active proposals back in 2025. Well, I think it was, it was back then, yeah, in 2025, Treasury Secretary said he had no plan to revalue the reserves.

1:13:55Congress poked at the edges a little bit in March of that year and talked about revalue in gold reserve certificates. But the fair market value of that just really kind of stuck in that, and that would also mandate an immediate independent audit of all the gold itself, which, either of that, no movement is occurring. There was a call by Rand Paul, I think, I think it was, he's actually saying he went there recently. Yeah, and saw it. And saw it. But we haven't had a physical audit on the gold, right? So there's, there's this kind of question is, is all the gold that we say we have actually not. I think it's still an open question. Exactly. Anyway, just to kind of wrap all this up, you know, you know, the international precedent, which, so, so the revaluation of the gold, this has been done before. And this is really kind of the key point, which is, you know, over the last 30 years, only five governments have used reserve revaluation gains.

1:14:56It was Germany, Italy, Lebanon, Curricale and South Africa. That's not a list of reserve currency issuers that you want to join. And the countries that reach for that kind of goal, revaluation lever are generally the ones that have actually no better options left. In other words, they're doing it specifically because they're in such bad physical straights. Yeah. And we're nowhere near that point. So it's just the optics are bad. You know, there's the reason we haven't done it is mostly legal. And it really doesn't change any of the fiscal math. Okay. Well, so here's where our brains still stuck on. So I just applied for mortgage and got approved. How fun was that? To be honest, that was the easiest part of the whole process. I mean, yeah, I had to send them some forms and stuff. But my whole life, I had been, you know, working about my credit score and just, you know, am I going to get the mortgage when I buy a house, I'm going to qualify for it.

1:15:58And I mean, this was like 15 minutes practically like, yep, you're good. Oh, wait, wait, wait, hold on a second. You've been pre-approved for more. You haven't been through the mortgage process yet. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online makes sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability varies 18 plus. Check it out with Crocs. You know back to school is coming in fast. So why wait to find your new faith footwear? Step into a local Crocs store and step into your new look. Try it. Style it. Make it yours. Because the right pair doesn't just show up. It shows off. First day fits, handled. Walk out ready for whatever's next.

1:17:00Visit your nearest Crocs store today. I guess that's true. OK, so that's where the fun part goes. OK, great. All right. Well, yeah, then let me give you an update in a year. Yeah, you're going to be fine. But I'll be one. But so super important, super important. So this between you and me is friends. Yeah. OK, between now and the day you pull a mortgage, right? Don't need a huge purchases. Don't do anything on your tax records that reduce your income. Like because you're an LLC like I am. Yep. So your income is registered. What's coming in? But if you go make a investment that provides you a tax loss upfront that reduces your income run, you may not qualify for your mortgage. OK, even though your income is the same. So over the next 12 months, don't make any big purchases or do anything that affects that income flow on your tax returns. OK, there was an Nigerian principle approached me with a great deal. I know.

1:18:00That's the one to get you. That one can't get you every time. It isn't every time. But so you know, I had to declare assets, right? And part of the assets I declared were the precious metals I own. And I don't think this would have changed the outcome of the mortgage approval, but it, in theory, it could have. Like let's say 90% of my assets were in gold, right? If I had had to report them at 40 bucks in ounce versus 4,500 in ounce, it would have given a erroneous impression to the mortgage approver of my true wealth, right? And I might not have qualified because of their mortgage to net assets owned ratio. So in my mind, there, I'm just like, well, obviously, I would want to market to market. And everybody would be better off for it, right? The mortgage approval would have a better sense of my credit

1:19:02worthiness. And I'd have a better odds of getting the mortgage. So can we apply that to the nation and say, wouldn't it just be better to be transparent about what is versus some number that was picked 50 years ago or whatever? Well, first of all, governments are not households. I know. I know. Just I just want to be clear for everybody. It's a very crude analogy. Yeah, very simple analogy. Yeah. And your point is right, but look, the assets are important, right? If you're buying a $3 million house and you've got 50,000 assets, that certainly matters. But really what the mortgage company is going to look at is your income, right? Can you afford? It's not the assets so much because the collateral for that, for the mortgage is the house, right? You're buying a $3 million house. I'm not saying you're buying a $3 million house. I'm just saying. Yes, thank you because I'm not. I don't want anybody to say, oh, look at Adam. Yeah. He's probably got a jet sitting in the front yard too.

1:20:03No, he's got to go to the front. Two actually, two jets. Exactly. So no, I'm just throwing out numbers. But we'll make it even easier. We'll just say a million dollar house, right? So if I'm going to buy a million dollar house, I've got to put some money down. And it depends on the state you live in. But in Texas, for example, don't quote me on the exact number of betta believe a jumbo loan, sorry, a conventional loan caps at $851,000, something close to that number. Okay. So if I'm buying a million dollar house, well, I've got to close that gap between the $851 and $150. So I've got to put that payment in to get to a convention board. I could do a jumbo, right? So that's a different structure, but trying to get to an eventual. So I've got to put it down payment in. Well, the bank is holding the house. They have the lien on the house. They have first lien on the house. So in the event that you default on your mortgage, they're going to go sell your house. Right. So they don't want to do that. No, no, no, they don't.

1:21:03But that's why, but what they really want to know more, and it's great that you've got assets, right? That's that's awesome. Certainly helps. I'm not saying it doesn't help at all, but what they're really focused on is your income. Inca, yeah. You go forward the monthly payments on the house on a consistent basis. And that's what I'm saying. Don't do anything over the next 12 months because you don't. You've been pre-approved for a long. You have not gone through the mortgage process yet. And they're going to re-verify by that time. You're going to file a tax return between now and then. Yeah. They're going to re-verify all of your income to make sure that that income has it dropped. And you can qualify for your mortgage. OK. OK. Having said all that, that has nothing to do with your answer to your question. Bottom line is, is that, again, for the government, you'd have to do it on it. You'd have to potentially go through a legal process of getting the revaluation done. And the bottom line is, is that it doesn't really change the fiscal math. But what it potentially does is changes the outlook on how people view the reserve currency internationally.

1:22:06Again, when you start talking about Italy and Lebanon and Kurekau and South Africa that have done these reserves, they've done them under very stressed situations. And just doing, let's just say, we're just going to do it to do it. There's no reason to do it. We're just going to do it to do it. So we re-value the goal. All of a sudden, the immediate view is that, is there a problem with the dollar? Is there a problem? Why is the government, all of a sudden, doing this big reserve re-revaluation to put a trillion dollars of assets on their balance sheet? What's wrong that I don't know? So it's a bad visual that you're putting out there by doing this. And it's a trillion dollars. If I re-value gold and it's been all of that to pay down the debt, I'm not 40 trillion down to 39 trillion. What am I doing? Yeah. Now I was going to get to that in just a second. Which is, look, I still understand the argument of like, if you accurately reflect the value of the gold that the government owns, it does make the government's fiscal situation

1:23:08look a little better. It's got a little bit more assets against the debt. But it's only a trillion, as you said, right? This argument probably would have made a lot more sense back in like 2008. But we could ruple our debt since then, right? So sadly, a trillion bucks is kind of a quaint little, and I hate to say it, but like, nothing burger of a number versus, well, forget our debts, just our annual deficits. It didn't even close that for a year. Yeah. I was on my dad used to call left pocket change. Left, okay, right. All right. Well, thank you. Okay, so let's get to the rant and let's end this. So this should be quick folks. So Lance, you were called that I was going through that big physical transformation process 12 weeks. And I made a lot of progress. I did not hit my goal, as we know. I didn't get as cut as you did when you left for Italy.

1:24:10And then, you know, kind of got knocked off the program for a while, because we went to celebrate our anniversary in my birthday. We were off in Glacier National Park and getting ready for this move and everything. So I've not hit that original goal. I'm back on the program, things you're heading in the right direction. I actually probably am probably in the best overall physical shape I've probably ever been in. I'm not going to say from a strength program, I think it probably was overall all around stronger during my CrossFit years from a performance standpoint. But just in terms of working on the full range of my muscle groups and deliberately exercising things that muscles, I didn't even know I had. I'm probably in the best shape possible from that. So, you know, the frustrating part though is, is I'm not trying to lose weight anymore, but I did just weigh in at my lowest weight since this whole process started.

1:25:13And I'm, you know, seeing a lot of the definition I want to see, but I still have that stubborn little couple of pounds that's sadly exactly where I want to have the most definition. And it's just this stubborn pad of fat that's just still covering it. So, do your trainer going on an actual full-blown cut diet? So he, no, he doesn't, he's actually been doing almost sort of the opposite where he wants to be building muscle and is just doing the, we're going to, we're going to have you eat clean enough, but, but a fair amount of calories, but increase your metabolism in your metabolic demand because I do two a day workouts now. I do a peloton ride, first thing every morning, and then I do the real workout in the afternoon. And it has been working. And so I'm not messing with success here. And this guy has a ton of, ton of super, you know, super lead athletes that he's brought

1:26:16to great success. And I'm not going to sit and pick a part of this thing. And like I said, I'm way better than it was at the start of this process. Yeah. And, and, and probably honestly, you're probably worrying about something that nobody else would even be concerned about because they're going to look at you and go, man, you look great. What? That's where I was going with this. I'm the same way, you know, my thing's very psychological. It's like, how do I look in the mirror to me? And I probably have body just morphine or something. So, because I'm never happy. And I think we're wired the same way. That said, just to reflect back on you, the photo that you had sent me before you left for Italy, you were in great shape. But that's kind of where I'm going with this, which is, I'm frustrated. I am still making progress and I do think I'm going to get there. And if I get there, folks, I will take a video or whatever. So we can, I think if you get there, you have to do the George Gastanz oppose on the couch. Okay. I'm going to have to go back and white sign fell for that. Just go look up George Gastanz on the couch on the internet because it's just him doing

1:27:20this, this pose on the internet. So yeah. Okay. I will give a tentative yesterday until I check out this video and it's too compromising. I will change my mind. But anyway, where I was going with this was, yeah, just yesterday, I am, this is kind of a lesson in a peril. So as this guy's been working with me, he's been pushing, oh, you're going to pull up the Gastanz image. Okay. Yeah. I don't know, folks. We'll see. If there's enough demand and maybe we tie it to like a fun or good charity or something like that and maybe I'll do that. Well, folks, let me know in the comment section if you want me to throw all myself respect to the wind and pose like that. What we're doing in event in December for being an angel foundation. They, they get gifts for underprivileged children. Perfect. We'll do it for that.

1:28:20There you go. We'll do a picture and have fun, Razor for your picture. Okay. And I, I, I was at white boxers and black socks. Yeah, just a classiest look for men. Yeah, exactly. But yeah, so yes, so because this guy's been really working on trying to build up. Muscle groups and stuff. He's had me buy some of those sleeveless teas for working out and I've never had them in the past. So I had to order them all and I ordered from like four different places and it's funny. They're, I ordered all mediums and one medium fits me like a tent. You know, two fit me pretty well. And then one I call my fat Russian shirt because I just look like a, a Russian, a Bulgarian wrestler who's just spent the past hour trying to squeeze himself into this kind of tight. And I had to wear that yesterday. I don't usually wear that one, but I had to wear that one yesterday because everything else has been packed up. And this guy who's been working out with me through this whole process was very kind and just said, whoa, he said, you know, I got to tell you have really changed your body composition.

1:29:24I know you're frustrated about losing whatever a couple pounds you want to lose. He's like, just so you know, I don't see it. Like, you know, like you look really good relative to how you did. So that was really kind and kind of where I'm going with this is is we've got to leave a little bit of room for cutting ourselves some slack. You know, in this process, especially guys like you and I, but I think a lot of viewers are like this too. You focus on the goal and all you do is you focus on all the ways you're not at the goal. You got to sometimes just pause and reflect and maybe celebrate the progress you've made is even if it isn't as far as you wanted along the way too. You're doing all this to have bigger quality of life. So you just don't want to sit there hating yourself the whole time, right? Look, two things is I absolutely agree with you. One is that you need to celebrate the progress, right? You know, the reason that people quit working out and is they start to work out program and then they're not immediately at the results. And so they they stopped.

1:30:25It's like, it's not working for me. You put your inspiration photo up in the wall, which is a guy with a six back or an eight pack. And you're like, I've been doing this for two weeks. I can't see anything screw this. Yeah, exactly. Diet's at the same way, right? But, you know, so to make the progress work and I'm going to tie this back to finance as well. But to make it work, you've got to set small goals that you celebrate. So, you know, hey, I worked out every day this week in a state on my diet religiously every day this week. So Sunday, have a pizza, right? But, you know, that's why you know, cheat days are a very important process within the overall dieting and exercise because you have to reward yourself. But same thing goes with finances, you know, most reason that most people don't adhere to a financial plan is because they're saving, they're saving, they're saving, and they're always sacrificing. And there's never any joy. It's like, great, I'm building up, you know, I'm saving all this money and I'm struggling all the time to make ends meet because I'm trying to save this money.

1:31:26Well, every once in a while, go take, you know, go treat yourself. Don't go crazy, right? Don't go spin your whole thing. Go treat yourself for a while. Have a little bit of a group, give yourself a reward along the way to celebrate the progress. It's not getting to the goal that's important. It's the progress to because the goal is you're never going to reach your goal. If your goal is to get to a million dollars, when you get to a million dollars, your goal is going to be two million dollars. And once you get to two million, it's going to be four million dollars, right? It's the goal is, the goal post will always move. But definitely you have to celebrate the process of getting to the goals. Yeah, exactly. And just to add one of the elements that we talk a lot about in that is like, we don't know how much time we have, right? So while you're working towards a future goal, if all you're doing is suffering and sacrificing and, you know, the proverbial bus hit you tomorrow, it's been for vain, right? So make sure you take at least some time along the way with all the hard work to just enjoy it and give yourself a little, you know, pat on the back.

1:32:28All right. So just closing in this, my older brother Lance is a doctor and I remember him specifically, a member of this call we had where he was probably like a third year med student and he had just completed a course there. I don't know what course it was, but it really imprinted on him that the lifestyle habits that you carry into the rest of your life are kind of cemented in your early 20s. And so, you know, if you're watching this and you are younger, I can't emphasize enough how true that is. And so you want to give yourself, you know, the best leg up on your future by developing the right habits now, both from a fiscal financial savings that, you know, obviously, might have terribly that's going to compound your benefit over time. Same thing goes with health, fitness, exercise, your diet, et cetera.

1:33:29These are all things that if you learn to develop the right habits, you know, in your early 20s, it'll just feel natural to carry on. If you don't, it's a lot harder to adopt them afterwards. Now, I know most people watching this channel are 45 years or over. I'm not trying to depress you. And the good news, and sure Lance can speak to this directly. You're never too old to start adopting better habits. And in a lot of cases, especially with nutrition, but also with fitness, you can actually make up for a lot of years of disabusing yourself. A lot more than people imagine. You know, when people kind of hear this, they go, well, look, I'm 50. I mean, that just means I'm screwed, right? I didn't develop life habits. But no, you may carry some costs into the future from your profil get ways earlier on. But especially with nutrition, they say that you can undo a lot of the damage of a bad diet in your life within a few years, right?

1:34:30Of course, you have to keep consistently being consistent about that going forward. But you know, there are people who've started strength training in the 90s to benefit, you know, to directly observe or benefit. So my point here is, is start developing the habits as early as you can in your life, because your job's going to make a job easier going forward. But even if you haven't, don't lose hope. In fact, take faith in the fact that you can change your leaf. I highly recommend those people get like a guide because there's a lot you got to learn. There's a big learning curve. And it can be demoralizing if you're just doing it on your own. Like Lance was talking about earlier. And you don't have the benefit of experience to know that it takes a while to start to see the type of results that you want. But the good news is, is you can change your station. And I think I've told this story fair amount. But like, I've always been pretty athletic and active. But from getting out of college and going into Wall Street and spending, you know, being

1:35:35awake for 20 hours every day and most of those hours are sitting at a, at a cubicle and the only joy ahead in my life was the sandwiches I was able to order out. You know, I was not at my best physically for a long time. And I told myself, well Adam, you can't go exercise because that's selfish, right? You're stealing time from trying to build a future for your family. So you're stealing that time from your children. Those are the way that I thought about it. And then I eventually realized that, hey, this path does not end well from a health perspective. And if I'm not around to provide for the people that I care about, that's way worse than me taking the time, a little bit of time every day to work on developing the right habits. And so all of a sudden, I looked at it from sort of like a, like a sin, right? You're being selfish and claiming these hours for yourself to an altruistic move, which is, hey, this is how you're going to make sure that you're a long-term protector and producer for those that you care about.

1:36:36So if anyone's stuck in that same, you know, mind-trap of, well, I just can't work out, you know, daily because I'm letting down my family. You know, in many ways, this is one of the best investments you can make for your family's overall well-being. Day Portney here, football is here in Soes Drafties. The Draft King's sports app is now live in all 50 states. From Texas to California to Florida. In this September, Draft Kings is giving customers the opportunity to get boosted every football game day. Every game day, all month long, Draft Kings customers can get a profit boost on select football games. New Draft Kings customers, sign up with code Spotify, spend five bucks, and get 200 and total rewards within 21 days, includes all markets. That's code Spotify, in partnership with Draft Kings. The Crown is yours. Draft King's�s Draft King's�s. A CFTC registered Futurist Commission merchant trading involves risk of loss, market availability varies, eligibility restrictions apply, $50 in non-withdrawable predictions dollars issued every seven days via click to claim for 21 days, predictions dollars expire in one year,

1:37:38one football boost per customer, maximum trade limits and restrictions apply, tokens expire at the end of the final select game each day when offered. Nationwide based on sportsbook predictions and or free-to-play sports contests availability. Varys by state, turns at dkng.co-slashoffer. Yeah, absolutely. I have this conversation with my kids all the time because they're in their 20s, so I'm constantly texting them motivational stuff and helping them work on discipline and strategies and those type of things. The one thing that tells them is more important than just about anything else is the people they surround themselves with because your friend group that you have today is going to be where you are in five years. You want to make sure that your friend group that you're associating with are people that are elevating you and not holding it back. And so I was like, you know, if you're going to have friends, have friends that are where you want to be and are living where they're kind of living the lifestyle that you want to live, you know, and are working towards the same goals and have the same aspirations because they're going to lift you up and the wrong friend group will hold you back.

1:38:41Yeah, they won't support you in your near that there'll be like, oh, don't go, don't go study that extra hour. Come hang out with me and drink beer. Right. You want friends that are, no, I'll go study with you. Come on, let's go. Right. Yeah. That's because that's going to pay off for you long term because again, the people you surround yourself with, the people will lift you up, motivate you, help you towards your goals. You're going to be much more successful getting there. So I'm going to echo what I said earlier, which is a great catalyst to success is to have, you know, mentors, coaches, etc. They're just forced multipliers. But if you're in a position where you're like, man, I would love to have, you know, career coach or I would love to have a physical training trainer, but I just don't have a cash flow right now to afford it. In my whole life, I've been amazed at how when you approach people who are domain experts in something and just say, hey, I'm trying to get smarter at what you're clearly great at.

1:39:42Could I talk to you regularly about, you know, what I should be doing if I'm trying to improve here? In 98 times out of 100, they'll say, absolutely. I mean, a lot of people will be your mentor for free. You just have to ask. And then secondly, you've got to, you know, you've got to treat them and their advice with respect. You know, if they're telling you what to do and you're not doing it, well, they're just going to say, look, this kid's just wasting my time. This goes for working out too. I mean, it goes for everything. Yeah, I can't afford a trainer. Go to the gym, find a guy that's there on a regular basis. Like I work out every day by myself because the time I work out, there's nobody in the gym. But it's kind of a scary off putting personality to this is true too. Absolutely. Generally, I'm the only person in the gym when I go. And but there was somebody there that was on a regular basis and they said, hey, do you want to work out together? I'd be like, absolutely, right? Or even better if they said, hey, look, I'm kind of just getting started. You know, can you give me some pointers? You would absolutely do that. Yeah. So yeah, talk to people in the gym, talk to people in your work, talk to people, you

1:40:43know that you meet your daily life. You'll be surprised just talking to people. And if you're nice and respectful, they will pretty much just open the vault until you anything you want to know. Yeah, I mean, tell this to my kids all the time because right now they're in the career at the moment in their lives where they're starting to get really serious about, you know, what they want to do with their lives. And so they finally got in religion on all the informational interviewing advice I've been giving them. But part of that is opening their eyes to like, wait, I can just call this person and ask them, you know, to either spend time with me or maybe even ask them to invest in me, like to agree to be a mentor and to check in with me regularly. I'm like, yeah. And of course, they're seeing that, right? You know, when you're, especially when you're a bright, shiny kid, just starting, it's, you know, everybody but the psychopaths are basically willing to take some time to help you out. Yeah, this, you know, this is the sad thing that I see on social media is kind of this younger generation just constantly kind of bashing the gen Xers and the boomers.

1:41:46And it's like, oh, you know, they did this and my life's terrible because of what they did and stuff like that. But they have experience and they have money. So, you know, instead of bashing them, go out and recruit them to be your support network. And they'll open doors for you. They'll introduce you to people. They have, they have the ability to do that type of stuff. So don't bash on them. Go recruit them to work for you. Yeah. I agree a thousand percent. And what I find ironic about that is gen X, you know, spent its youth being bashed by the older generations as, oh, my God, you guys are such slackers. Yeah. The world's going to hell. Hell and a hand basket if it's going to gen X. And now we're being looked as like the savior of the country. Yeah. It's every generation to say. Yeah. Anyway. Well, everybody, thanks so much. Great time. Folks, if you think one of the best ways you can change your station over time is to continue listening to Lance Roberts on this channel week in a week out. Let him know that by hitting the like button. Then clicking on the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next

1:42:48to it. There's a lot we've talked about about, you know, how things might go in the markets from here. If you feel compelled to take any action based upon what Lance and I have talked about here today, I highly recommend most of you who aren't just demonstrated exceptional, do it yourself investors. Follow the guidance of a good professional financial advisor. If you've got a great one, fantastic. Don't mess with success. But if you don't or you'd like a second opinion from one who meets all the criteria that we look for in a good professional financial advisor here at Thalphamoney, consider talking to one of the firms that we endorse. These are the firms you see with me on this channel week in a week out. Perhaps you'd like to talk to Lance himself and his team there at real investment advisors. To do all of that, just fill out the very short form at Thalphamoney.com. Only takes you a couple of seconds to fill out and the firms will follow up with you immediately after you do. Last point is just a reminder that the Thalphamoney Fall Online Conference is coming up pretty fast.

1:43:48It's now just a little less than a month and a week away. So I want to make sure everybody signs up for it, but more specifically, I want to make sure everybody signs up for it soon because we're still offering the lowest price discount, the early bird price discount that we're going to offer for this conference. It's not going to be around for too much longer. So I want to make sure everybody gets the lowest price they can. So if you haven't signed up for it yet, go to Thalphamoney.com slash conference. The conference itself is going to take place on Saturday, October 17th. Don't worry if you can't watch live. If you're registered, it's going to be sent replay videos of the whole event right afterwards. In a reminder that if you are a premium subscriber to our Thalphamoney newsletter, the sub-stack, you've been sent a code that will give you $50 off of that lowest early bird price discount that I mentioned earlier. So you can save you even more. If you don't subscribe to our newsletter already, feel free to sign up right now. It's only 19 bucks.

1:44:49Sign up for a month. Any bucks a month. Sign up for just one month if you want to. Pay the 19, save 50 bucks. Pocket the $31. I'm totally happy if you do that. So if you want to sign up for the newsletter, just go to thalphamoney.com slash newsletter. Lance, I thought this was going to be a short one. Thanks for the prize. It wasn't. I think every time I start by saying, I think we're going to keep this short. It's actually longer than normal. And you get a buddy there with you. Yeah, but it's thundering outside. So this is my stock analyst. So the next week, if you just want to have pure stock talk, he'll be happy to send in for you. Oh, great, great. Is he kind of your version of the monkey throwing darts at the dark board? Is that how R.A. really does its portfolio allocation? No, no. No, no. He is strictly a fundamental guy. So he is. So he looks. So there's treats involved somewhere. He's good to go. He's good to go. Okay. He's still a little nervous, but he looks very confident in your arms there. Sorry about this. He's terrified of thunder. So. Well, I hope the thunder stops in the poor guy.

1:45:49All right, but yeah, let's folks, if you want, let's have a vote below. If you'd rather have sniper sit in next weekend and set a lance. If demands high enough, Lance, you can take the week off. There you go. Appreciate it. All right, as long as it's not thundering. Exactly. All right. See you next week, buddy. Everybody else. Thanks so much for watching. Thank you. Dayport now here. Football is here in so is draftings. The draft King's sports app is now live in all 50 states from Texas to California to Florida. In this September, draft Kings is giving customers the opportunity to get boosted every football game day. Every game day all month long, draft Kings customers can get a profit boost on select football games. draft Kings customers sign up with code Spotify, spend five bucks and get 200 and total awards within 21 days includes all markets.

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