Will Tarik Skubal's case break MLB's arbitration system once and for all?

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1:14I'm back to the Cleveland baseball talk podcast. I'm Joe Nogga joined by Paul Hoynes, point ZE a busy day on Thursday with the arbitration filing deadline around major league baseball. A lot of contracts and numbers being thrown around. The big number and the big contract important to guardians fans is that of Stephen Kwan. He and the guardians agree on a one year 7.725 million dollar deal for him to play in 2026 for the guardians. This is I think both positive and maybe a little bit of a negative as well. But the one thing we know for sure is that Stephen Kwan is in the fold and as the season starts as long as nothing happens between now and the end of spring training. Stephen Kwan will be in left field for the Cleveland guardians early in the season. What was your reaction to the guardians and Kwan coming to an agreement? And is this a good sign or a bad sign for Stephen Kwan's

2:17future here in Cleveland? Yeah, I'm not surprised they reached a deal to really think, I mean, basically unless they traded Kwan, he was signed. He's going to be signed one way or the other. Well, I was surprised at the price tag. I thought the projections had had him making more than 8 to 8 plus million, 8 to 9 million for the one year deal. I don't think he's going to starve on 7.725 million. So, you know, it's a good deal for Kwan. He made 4.175 million last year, almost doubles that. Just to be Joe, maybe with him taking a smaller figure and not taking the team to arbitration, maybe this kind of sets the path for a multi-year deal or an extension sometime in spring training, which is other time the guardians usually like to negotiate those things. Yeah, it almost, you know, says to me, hey, if you're coming from the

3:20guardians perspective, you know, we know we can have you this season for, you know, X amount of dollars, but let's negotiate. Let's talk. Let's make sure that you're taking care of here. These are maybe tactics that they can use to ensure that the Kwan wants to sign and wants to increase that of the deal that he signed, you know, for a longer period of time, but we can't get inside both of their heads right now until until we find out that they've actually been talking and sitting down and having these negotiations. So, yeah, right now is a sort of a big period of, you know, we don't know if and when conversations are happening, but when they do, it could result in something real positive here. I just, you know, I wonder if there's maybe a false sense now for guardians fans that, you know, he was willing to sign this deal. Maybe he'll give the team a break or a hometown discount or sign a contract that's more team friendly because of this. That

4:20might not necessarily be the case. Yeah, I'm not sure, you know, what, what that, you know, I'm sure they negotiated a deal that was, that was, you know, that they felt was fair to both sides. Joe, if he, if he didn't like it, I mean, he certainly has the stats to go to an arbitration hearing. Maybe he didn't have the appetite for that, but, you know, I know his numbers, you know, he, he was a bit of a drop off in the second half. He only had what he finished a year with a 96 OPS plus with, you know, 100 being a league average, but still he's a valuable player. And when you, when you're in arbitration, you can bring your, your past, I think to two seasons into play as well to argue in front of the arbitrators and, you know, he's been pretty solid. He's been the second best player for four years. I mean, if he wanted to go to arbitration, he could have gone. So I think it's, you know, some guys want to go, some guys don't. And, and either way, I mean,

5:20he must have felt this was a fair settlement because he took it. Yeah, the, uh, the OPS plus number 96 last year. So slightly below a league average, but 126 the year before. And that was his first of two all star years. Yeah, his, his career OPS plus 109. The career numbers the last four years for Stephen Kwan really have been outstanding. And we, we've seen just how valuable he is to the top of that lineup. Stephen vote says he's, uh, he's our engine. He's, he's the guy that gets things started for us. And then they hand off to, to, to Jose Ramirez. And Ramirez needs somebody on base to, to drive in if they're going to have any sort of offense. And then Kwan's usually that guy still hasn't scored what over a hundred runs in a season yet. I think that's sort of the next benchmark, the next level that he needs to get to or wants to get to sort of prune self in that regard. But everywhere else on the field, I think he's done so. Yeah, no doubt that this is a, you know, a big sort of step forward. Now it's just a matter of can the front

6:24office get this together and get a, get a deal done before the season starts. And then you have to shift your focus to, to start to, to see what you can get for Stephen Kwan before the end of the year on a trade. Yeah, no doubt about it, Joe. I think the key thing to me is, okay, you know, they have spent over 12 million on the four arbitration eligible players that they've got under contract now. And when you look at the projected 26 man roster for this team, it's 76 million, Joe. And last season, they were pushing 100 million on opening day for the, you know, for the 26 man roster. How do they fill into blanks, Joe? They still got some money to spend. Or are they going to sit on her hands and go with the, the young core that they, they don't want to bring players into block? That's, that's the big question to me. I mean, they've still got some, they still have some needs on this club. And the question is, are they going to spend that money? Yeah, it's, that's the real mystery. And we don't really know, we know that there's, there's got to be a plan.

7:29We just haven't seen what the, what the evidence of that is yet. So the big question right now is with, you know, what, what, what dollars that we, we suspect are, are still out there that can be spent? Are they going to do that? Or are they preparing for the inevitability of a work stoppage after the 2026 season? And, and they don't want to tie up money and spend on guys who aren't going to be playing games, eventually for them or a number of games, you know, is the belt tightening already starting to happen here in 2026 for the projected work stoppage at the end of the year? It's a great point, Joe. But I think the guys they bring in now are going to be on one year deals, right? They're going to be like Austin Hayes and, and maybe I've kind of a veteran outfielder. You know, I, you know, I'm just sinking along those lines that, you know, we saw them with what Jacob Junus and, and C wall, guys like that that they brought in last season, you know, late think, you know, what C wall, they confirmed that in February. So I think there's still some, you know,

8:34there's still some, you know, runway here for them to, you know, pad this roster and add some thumb to it. I will, we'll find out in the coming weeks what, you know, what direction these guys, this front office wants to go in in terms of adding or making additions to, to the roster. Stephen Cwan wasn't the only big name or name that Guardians fans should be keeping an eye on. In terms of yesterday's arbitration exchange date, the, the big news around the league, the, the one that sort of could really break the arbitration system, I guess, is a tariff school. And we talked about this yesterday, but this was ahead of the announcement of what these, these figures and what the, the exchanges of arbitration numbers, what we're going to be. The Tigers came in at 19 million with their, their arbitration figure, which, which would have matched Framber Valdez. I would have come close to David Price as the, the highest single year arbitration award for a pitcher in his, in his final year. Scoobles number, a little different,

9:38a lot different actually. He came in at 32 million, which would have put him at the top end of any free agent out there. And, and the highest arbitration award for any player, regardless of a position or pitcher player on Soto with the 31.5 million, I think, was the, the previous high. And now a three panel arbitration, a three panel, a three judge panel of arbitrators has to sit down and decide if Scoobles going to make 32 million or 19 million. And that's quite the gap between the two. What's this, this situation now say about the arbitration system, about Scoobles likelihood of pitching even an inning in Detroit this year. And, and really the future of baseball, because this has the ability to set a lot of precedent. Yeah, this is, you know, I guess, and it comes to this maybe perhaps reaching some kind of deal before you go to arbitration. Then lots of

10:38teams take the, as we were talking about yesterday, the Filer trial approach, if you, if they can't reach a deal on the, the deadline when they exchange figures, they go to the arbitrators. And, you know, they either take the player's number or the team's number. There's no middle ground there. So this is really going to be fascinating to watch. Last year, before, you know, before the, Boros had won Soto, and Soto holds a record for a 31 million dollar arbitration settlement, a couple of two years ago with the Yankees. And now he could have the, he could have the record with for the overall record, especially for a pitcher, Joe, if they, if he comes home with 32 million. And it's, it's really going to be an interesting situation. Yeah, I think it's interesting. It's also kind of scary if your, you know, if you're a baseball fan who wants to see games, continue to be played beyond 2026, I think it's, could be a sticking point in the negotiations,

11:41because we've talked about how the owners want to change or get rid of the arbitration system. This is basically school bull saying, pay me what you would pay me if I were on the open market as a free agent right now. And the, the system is in place to sort of control those costs. You know, from the owner's perspective, you know, why treat the guy as if he were already a free agent? The system is in place to control those costs at least for this final year. So that's why the, the 19 million number, I mean, if school bull had asked for 21 or 22 million, he almost certainly would have, would have gotten it, you know, automatically from the, the arbitration panel. That, that's, that's not even a doubt, because as far as the, the, the, the arbitration eligible players in his class, he's the top, he should be making that, that money there. Basically, it's asking the arbitrators to go ahead and tear down the entire system by bumping him up to a full free agent

12:42status before he is able to be there. Well, the rules say, Joe, the, the arbitration rules say that a player you can compare a player in his last year of arbitration to free agents already on the market, you know, that are similar to him. So you're talking about a two-time Sion winner and there's plenty of pictures out there making 30 million a year. That could play into this decision as well. If you're, you know, so if you're the Tigers, I would, I would think you'd want to reach a deal before that or, Joe, you know, think about this. The, the hearings are in February, you know, probably being camped by then or, you know, the early part of February for the early part of camp. And if you're the Tigers, you're sitting there thinking, can't do too much more because either I'm paying this guy night or, you know, or 32 million. So it kind of handcuffs you, you know, as far as, you know, improving the roster goals. So yes, really, you know, a tricky

13:43position for, for school bull and, and the Tigers. I mean, especially the Tigers, I believe, school bull, you can't lose. Yeah, you take whatever that 13 million up gap there and you say, hey, we could have signed Alex Breggman with this money. But instead, we have to, to sort of, hold it in reserve because we don't know if we're going to have to pay tarot school bull. And does this force, you know, school bulls exit from Detroit, either by trade or in some other way, just because, you know, they need that flexibility and they need that ability to manage their roster in other ways. Well, we saw with, with, you know, I'm not comparing Soto and school bull, you know, personality wise, but Soto took the 31 million, you know, arbitration award, in one year with the Yankees broke Cleveland's heart in the ALCS. And, and, and then right after they were eliminated, what in the World Series said, I'm on the open market and then signs what

14:44for 765 million with the Mets, you know, school bull is, is even if he loses, I mean, he still goes what, what 10 million to 19 million. And, and I think if, if he brought, if he does lose, you know, I mean, you can't be unhappy with a 19 million dollar pay, pay, you know, paycheck, but still, you're probably going to be a little perturbed with the, with how the, with what the, whatever the Tigers said in the arbitration hearing that convinced the arbitrators not to give you 32 million. And all of that conflict obviously benefits the guardians in, in some way, either you've got a school not pitching in the division anymore because he's been traded to the Mets or somebody else, or you've got a, a really angry school bull pitching on a team that he doesn't want to be on, and, and maybe we see a few more flips between his legs down for down the first baseline and maybe he doesn't pitch it, you know, the optimum level when he faces Cleveland three to four times

15:49a year, 2026, but who knows how this is going to shake out with school and how it will affect not only the Tigers, but all of baseball, all the division and all of MLB just working towards a labor contract beyond 2026. It has a far-reaching impact, I think, is the, is the key takeaway here. Speaking of far-reaching impact, the news out of Guardians Camp confirmed by the club assistant pitching coach Brad Goldberg will be joining team Israel for the World Baseball Classic and serving as their pitching coach, big step for Goldberg who actually pitched four team Israel back in 2017 in the World Baseball Classic when he was a prospect in the White Sox organization. He came out and had an outstanding tournament, two appearances for a team Israel in 2017, two scoreless appearances as they advanced to the second round of out-of-pool play in their first

16:49ever World Baseball Classic tournament. Now the team from Israel is back, they'll be competing in the Tokyo in the upcoming World Baseball Classic tournament. So congratulations to Brad Goldberg. I'm going to be in name the pitching coach and how is this going to impact the Guardians not having Goldberg there for pretty much the first couple of weeks of camp early in March there. I believe March 5th is when the tournament starts over in Tokyo. I don't think you'll have a big impact. You think they're going to, they're possibly, there's quite possibly, they're going to lose a cup, at least maybe several players to WBC. They've got a bunch of Canadian guys on this club that could pitch for team Canada or others from their various countries. I'm not sure how long team Israel's run will last, but it's kind of a feather in Goldberg's hat. Certainly he got promoted, the Guardians

17:52Promotor from Bullpen Coach to Assistant Pitching Coach. I would think he has his eye on being a pitching coach in the Big League somewhere. So this is just another line on a resume for him, another good reference point for teams to look at this guy and look at the job he does. We talk about, you mentioned he got promoted. He was the Bullpen Coach in 2024. Did an outstanding job there. That Bullpen was a lead to the best in baseball at the time. He becomes an Assistant Pitching Coach to Carl Willis the following year and really has had a rapid rise through the organization since joining in 2022. Prior to that, he was the director of pitching development for Ohio State where he pitched after leaving Beachwood High School. Obviously he's a North East Ohio native guy whose family had seasoned tickets to progressive field to watch the club when he was growing up. So you know that his heart is with the Guardians organization and they want to keep him around.

18:57They recognize sort of his talent as a pitching coach. You know, maybe is this guy an heir apparent to Carl Willis when when Carl Willis finally decides to go out on his own terms. As we've seen, you know, Willis sort of has that that open ended, you know, sort of feeling and agreement of, you know, as long as he wants that job, he's going to have it. But, you know, is Goldberg kind of the guy who's being groomed to follow in his footsteps? You know, it could be they've they have like I think the pitching team or the pitching group. As the Guardians call it, they've got Carl Willis, they've got, you know, Joe Torres, they've got Goldberg, the new bullpen coach Caleb Longshore. And, you know, they've got like, it seems like they've got 20, you know, pitching pitching gurus into minors. So, you know, they they really have a, you know, a solid, you know, group there and a history of developing starters. I think Goldberg did a real good job assisted in, you know, bringing that rotation

19:58back to life last season, along with Torres. And of course, Carl Willis, I think whatever he hasn't done anything but help himself. And as a member of the Guardians coaching staff. Yeah, I, you know, it just seems like everywhere he goes, everything he touches turns to gold there. Wow. I see what you did there. Yeah, you see what I did there. The bullpen, he takes over in 2024. They, they become the best in, in baseball and other rotation. You really can't discount what he did to help there. And I'm sure guys like Tanner Bible and Gavin Williams for as much as they love and respect and enjoy working with Carl Willis. They also get that same kind of support from Brad Goldberg. It's pretty evident. So, you know, it will, we'll keep an eye on that as, you know, what, what the pitching group for Israel is able to do in this tournament. We'll see if Brad Goldberg, Brad Goldberg makes a difference for them. All right. And when he, that's going to wrap up today's addition to the Cleveland baseball talk podcast. Pretty busy week, actually, for not much going on.

21:03But we'll, we'll check back in on Monday and see, uh, see what developments show up then. Two good and co-coffee creamers are made with farm fresh cream, real milk, and contain three grams of sugar per serving. That's 40% less than the five grams per serving in leading traditional coffee creamers for a rich, delicious experience. Whether you enjoy your coffee hot, cold, bold, or frothy, two good coffee creamers make every sip a good one. Two good coffee creamers, real goodness in every sip. Find them at your local croaker in the creamer aisle.