Why Pauline is the 'main character' in the SA election

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1:01Hello, and welcome to the party room. I'm Patricia Carvellas, and I'm joining you from Parliament House on Nunnowall Country in Canberra. And I'm Frank Kelly, joining you here on the Gadigal Land, the Oranation in Sydney, PK. Now, Fran, quite a lot has actually happened. We keep saying that. Yeah, it's...well, we're in kind of really uncharted water's territory, like genuinely at the moment. So, let's just walk you through a couple of the things. On Wednesday, an Iranian missile landed near an ADF military base in the UAE. That's the L-minhard base, which suddenly made this war even more real, I think, for Australia, given we are very much... You know, no Australians were injured, the Prime Minister said. But really, this is very real and very close to where we are now stationed. At the same time, I think we are really dealing with the economic ramifications of this war

2:01which has led to a huge crisis meeting we're recording this on a Thursday. We have national cabinet meeting and a bizarre that will be set up and various other changes to try and deal with the crisis. Got Donald Trump, who blasted America's allies, naming Australia among them for not providing enough support in the conflict. Government kind of dead battered that, didn't they, friend? Yeah, they did. I mean, the government did. The Prime Minister said, look, we deal with diplomatic issues diplomatically. In other words, you know, let us handle this. That was in sharp contrast, I must say. To the comments of the Shadow Minister, Andrew Hastie, you had a real shop back at Donald Trump, so we'll get into that, I think. Then, today, we're recording this on Thursday. We're about to get a supply chainser, PK. When I heard that, I was sort of flooded with memories of the COVID response, still vivid memory for you, I know. And for many others, there are these choke points. There are actually fuel depots out of fuel,

3:01petrol stations close, because they don't have anything left at the bars that are given to particularly the trucks that are fearing our food up and down the country. So we're going to get this announcement of a supplies r to try and streamline this whole process. I think it's a really positive response. It's a good start. And the Prime Minister is trying to, you know, this is signalling. Just as Scott Morrison used National Cabinet during the COVID crisis, signalling, we are in charge here. This is a national issue, a national emergency to some degree. And we've got this. I've called the leaders together. We've got this. It's all about the signalling. But I think there are some substantive things they're looking at, too, of course. And then, you can't go any further than the biggest story of the week, really, which frames everything, I think. Yes, there's the war, there's the fuel crisis. But really, we have had an interest rate rise that is absolutely going to smash so many households. It really is a bleak situation at the same time as Jim Charmers set

4:05to deliver a major speech today, which delivers a piece of news which I've got to say is just, like, far out, man. It's so full on. This is this prediction of a 5% inflation rate that the war could push us into. Fran, yeah. Like, what, we have been living with this inflation crisis that's baked in now for so long. We thought we were making traction. Are we back there? Well, we were making traction and every effort to, you know, slay the inflation dragon was what all those rate rises were about. Then we got the cuts because we thought that dragon had been beheaded and now it's back up. And it's back up. Some of this is, you know, our domestic doing. But now this global crisis is oil shock, really. You know, the only option is for the government to throw everything at it. It's not going to be pretty. As we're in the middle of this crisis, we've got some big electoral tests

5:05coming up, Pika, for what might be emerging as a real roof shaping of particularly the conservative side of politics in this country. We've got the South Australian election this weekend and then we'll have the Farrah by-election in a few months' time. But this is the first big test for one nation. It's likely to have big federal implications. And that's why we've invited Casey Briggs, the ABC Chief Elections Analyst who's going to be coming to you live from ABC Adelaide Studios on the weekend on Saturday night to tell us what's going on. Casey, hello there. Hey, Fran, hey, Pika, great to be with you. Hey, Casey, now you also are an Adelaideian. So it's kind of a bit of a homecoming for you. It was me, both Casey, Adelaideians. Casey, so good to have you here on the show. Normally, I think it's fair to say, all due respect to our home state, a South Australian election is very much off Broadway, but not this one. All eyes are going to be on you, Casey. On Saturday night, and the results, as they roll in. That's unusual, too, because this is a Labour state at the moment.

6:06Labour holds the state of South Australia with a large majority. There's no one thinking this is going to be a close election. I don't think, or that the Malanasca government is under threat. It's there. It's all about one nation. Sky high in the polls. We're seeing another poll today on this Thursday in New South Wales, showing them, you know, rocketing up the charts. And the question is, will it translate at the ballot box? And what will it do to the Liberal Party vote? Yet, you know, the tensions palpable, with the Premier and Paul and Hanson ran into each other. And Adelaide, you start out, if you were there, are there about Casey? I saw it. It wasn't that. These moments are always a little telling, aren't they? Yeah, I mean, this is the most watched South Australian election in quite some years, not because, as you say, we're all hanging out to work out. He'll be the Premier, because we're really looking at the undercard fight between the Liberal Party and one nation, one nation, sky high in the polls. As you say, not quite as sky high as Labour, which holds a commanding lead. And I think there were, you know,

7:07in the sort of early weeks of this campaign, there have been, you know, people talking about this feeling a bit like a lackluster campaign. When the result is so sort of foregone, we know, you know, we know that, you know, there's very little doubt that Peter Malanasca will still be Premier next week. It has really kicked up a notch. And I think the attention, especially that sort of Paul in Hansen factor, she's been in the state this week. Peter Malanasca has been drawn into campaigning against her of his own choice. But also when she gave crash to the start of the leaders debate that was held yesterday, wasn't invited, wasn't a participant in the debate, but turned up and confronted him out the front in quite a sort of interesting exchange. She is, in many ways, despite the fact that she's not on the ballot, doesn't live in South Australia, she's not looking to form the next government, Paul in Hansen has somehow become the main character in this election. It's a possibility. It is quite wild. Casey, back to the data right. He's an orange way about to sweep

8:07through South Australia. Well, let's, I mean, let's look at the polling we've got. And at the moment, it is just polling, we haven't seen votes yet. Labour, a commanding lead on the primary vote and the two candidates prefer to couple of polls this week, put Labour, you know, in the high 30s, kind of as a ballpark figure on primary vote, one nation in the low 20s, you know, a youth poll this week was, one nation on 22%, the rules a few points behind on 19% in that youth poll. And that's been pretty consistent for the last sort of month or so in the admittedly limited polling we see. The big question then is, okay, does that translate into votes? And the caution that we're all holding at the moment is because of several reasons. One nation has been in the past, underperformed its polling figures. We've never seen a party jump so quickly in opinion polls, so dramatically, you know, as we've seen one nation since, you know, a few months after the federal election right through to now.

9:07So there's a lot of very unusual things happening that just make you want to see some votes, some actual data points compared to the opinion polls and the vibes that we're picking up all around the country and on the ground in South Australia. So that's question number one. Do one nation, does one nation perform, you know, in part, on part with where it's currently polling, even if it doesn't, and it underperforms it by five or six points even. You know, that's still a remarkable achievement for this party and a remarkable jump on the previous election. But do they get a number that sort of starts with a two or is in the high teens? You know, that would put them on par with, you know, the best one nation election performance since 1998, perhaps ever if they can exceed the Queensland 1998 performance of about 22.7% of the vote. So that question number one. Question number two is if they do that, do they then win seats in the lower house? And that is a much trickier question to answer right now

10:08because of the dynamics of the South Australian seats and the sort of geography and the candidates that are in play, it's not immediately obvious. If they're winning 23% of the vote, 21% of the vote, they're going to be beating the Liberal Party in a number of seats. But it's not immediately obvious A, which ones, and B, if they would then perform well enough to actually win the seat because of a combination of Labor doing very well in Adelaide. You know, and this Labor ascendancy that we're seeing at the moment might make life harder for one nation to gain seats. And in the regions, a lot of independence as well, making life very interesting. So we could actually be in a situation where one nation win more votes than the Liberal Party in a statewide basis. But don't win as many seats or perhaps win no seats in the lower house. Which of course is absolutely like a very live option with the way their system works, right? There's been a lot of talk about how this could be an extinction level event for the Liberals.

11:08And that, of course, will be read very deeply, I think, at a national level as well, although we should always be cautious about that. Could they really be wiped out entirely at this stage? Well, I mean, we'll find out. The Liberals in South Australia have had a very torrent time, and it's a combination of the same issues we've seen at the federal level and the same dynamics we're seeing that has enabled one nation to have success around the country, plus a bunch of local factors as well. Ashton Hurn, the Liberal Leader, has only been the Liberal Leader for just over three months at this point. She is the third Liberal Leader since Stephen Marshall resigned after losing government in 2022. And every one of the leaders has had troubles and dramas and really quite a torrent time trying to pull together a party that doesn't have the greatest history of unity in South Australia. Pulled it together for the term of the Marshall Government kind of and has sort of reverted to some old habits and really struggled to sort of present a united front against

12:09Labor and Piedermen Alaska. So, you know, one of the reasons that Labor's on track for a thumping victory is, yes, Piedermen Alaska is a popular figure, is a popular leader, and it's been seen to be a competent premier of the state. Yes, SA Labor is a very competent election-winning machine in this state, but they're also confronted by what has been quite a week and divided opposition that's been unable to sort of pull its act together and form a united opposition against Labor. So, in some respects, the Liberal Party is stuck between two parties at the moment. Much as the Federal Coalition is unable to work out exactly what to do, doesn't have a whole lot of experience in its ranks either at the moment. And so, the question then becomes, yeah, how many seats do they probably lose? They've got 13 at the moment in the state parliament. Now, do they lose Adelaide seats? Does this become a real wipeout in metropolitan Adelaide? They don't hold very many Adelaide seats at the moment and many of the ones that they do hold up quite marginal.

13:10So, does Labor become absolutely dominant in the city? That would be a real problem for the Liberal Party just in terms of organizational capacity, right? If you don't have any MPs in Adelaide, if you don't have any officers in Adelaide, it's very hard to rebuild into the future. And then, the other level of the sort of extinction question is, how do they do in the bush where their safest seats lie? And many of the seats in the bush are currently held by independents that used to be Liberal members running for re-election that have left for either different fits of opinion or they've been charged with various crimes. It's a really complicated picture in regional South Australia. If the Liberal Party can't win back some of those seats from independents and, indeed, if they continue to lose seats from independents, they're getting increasingly weak in the bush. And so, do they fall from 13 to a single-digit number to a low single-digit number? Does one nation end up with more seats than them? I mean, that's going to take a bit of time to sort out in the counting. We might not know that on Saturday night if it's looking close.

14:10But there are real questions about the viability of the Liberal Party going forward, right? If you only have a handful of seats and you're up against a Labor Party with a number in the high 30s or low 40s, how on earth do you go back? Well, given that. Then, how do we make sense of the Liberal's decision to preference one nation in this election? Above Labor, the Liberal leader, Ashton Hurn, she's only been in, I think, for 105 days or something, defended the decision on Radio National Breakfast. I mean, we're in the business of getting rid of the ALP. The ALP are a bad government here in South Australia. They are, I've proven time and time again, that they're more interested in PR and politics than they are on delivering practical outcomes for South Australians. But this is not a vote of confidence in one nation. In fact, far from it. But you've got to put people somewhere on the ballot. But Casey, this looks like complete capitulation, doesn't it, to the minor party? What is in it for the Liberals to send their preferences to the party that is posing this existential threat to them?

15:11Let's call it that. Will the Libs be responsible for getting one nation elected? And this whole thing about preferences that you told us, you know, they've got all these votes, but will it translate into seats? You know, we've been hearing this messaging coming from Cory Bernardi and Barnaby Joyce, you know, basically telling voters, don't mess around, give us your first vote. But why would the Libs do this? I think there's a complicated set of reasons for that. And it's wrapped up in a lot of complicated existential questions that the party is asking itself right now. But I mean, first and foremost, it's a messaging tool here, right? The Liberal Party is currently bleeding votes to one nation. More votes are leaving the Liberal Party and going to one nation than are leaving Labour and going to one nation. So there are people that have been natural Liberal voters for quite some time, who are now looking around and looking at the opposition and looking at the state of the government and thinking, oh, I need to try something else here. I'm not happy with this opposition. And so I think Ashton Hurn and the Liberal Party are very worried that they will alienate some of those voters that they do need to A,

16:14try to convince to stay in the camp and B, if they do lose them this time, they need to try and find a way to win them back in future. And so I think there is a messaging thing that's going on there about us. So you stick with us, but your preferences will go to where you want them. Yeah, and you know, there's almost a sort of like, you know, Ashton Hurn's talked a bit about we want conservative MPs elected in the House and sort of trying to sort of broaden this definition of what that means in many ways. And suggest that, you know, there are similarities between the Liberal Party and one nation. You know, there's only kind of only one way to read that. Which is a very big difference to how the Liberal Party used to treat one nation as you both well known. This has been the pariah party of Australian politics for a very long time. But over the last couple of years, particularly, we've seen the sort of Liberal Party attitude to one nation soften as the one nation has become more of a threat. Notably, we saw the Liberal Party in the federal election last year recommending preferences toward one nation, breaking this three-decade long decision that they would put one nation at the bottom of their preference recommendations.

17:17We've seen this attitude softening around the country. This is not the party that, you know, that we saw in the late 90s and the early 90s, really trying to ensure that one nation was seen as a pariah, was seen as not, you know, able to govern. We've seen that door opening over several years now. And as sort of the Electoral Coalition's shift in the parties, you know, brief frame what they're all about and who they are to represent. So I think that's a large part of why we're seeing this shift. It's kind of partly probably out of what they feel is political necessity. Yeah, I think that's absolutely right. Then the other big question, of course, is, and we've seen it in public polling at a national level, that perhaps the one nation, you know, freight train is coming for labour, a bit too. That's what this weekend will test a bit too, won't it? I know Mel and Auskis is popular, but we will be able to see in some of the specific booths potentially. Help me out here, Casey, whether one nation is taking votes

18:21from working class labour voters. So one thing I'm watching for this week is, you know, one nation's strength has traditionally been in regional and remote Australia. I expect that to be largely the pattern we see on Saturday night as well. But the question will be, are there parts of Adelaide that one nation is performing pretty well in as well? If one nation is outperforming the Liberal Party statewide or the statewide primary vote, mathematically, it stands to reason. It must be the case that there is going to be some Adelaide seats that one nation does better than the Liberal Party as well. So where are those and are they making a significant in road into metropolitan areas? And so the parts of Adelaide, I'm looking at other northern suburbs, areas around Elizabeth and Saul's Brienne Gawler, to see if one nation can make a significant gain there. That's the kind of area that one nation has done best in in Adelaide in past federal elections. There are the seats where there's potentially a world where this ends up as a Labour

19:22one nation contest in some of those seats. I think Labour still wins and wins pretty convincingly. These are very safe labour seats, but there'd be a real psychological blow, right? If the Liberals fall into third place in some of these seats, not only are they, you know, in single-digit seat figures, the battle to regain seats is already tough. They also have to leapfrog over this minor party in some of those areas if they want to sort of become competitive again. And southern Adelaide is the other part that we'd look at. You know, it might be, I'm guessing here, it might be that we're looking at a map of Adelaide next week where the sort of second-place finisher is a sea of blue in the middle of the city and then you're going to inner suburbs. But on the outer reaches of the city, it looks more orange one nation. Let's see what it looks like. But if that happens, that would be an indication and that would be a worry for Labour, right? These are safe labour seats. Labour would be worried that over time, if one nation can pull more of these working class, maybe more socially conservative voters over to their column, could over time that start to threaten

20:23what has been the Red Wall in Adelaide, what has been Labour's sort of source of, you know, its ability to consistently win elections is because it's been able to rely on many of these seats for a very long time. Could one nation begin to threaten that? And we've seen Peter Matanaskas this week starting to campaign much more aggressively. It's, at some points this week, it's felt like Peter Matanaskas is campaigning more against Paulin Hansen than against Staston Hurn and the Liberal Party. We've seen him repeatedly remind voters that Paulin Hansen is a Queenslander, not from here. She's not a South Australian. And when I wake up on Sunday morning, whatever the result of the election is, I'll wake up in South Australia. Paulin Hansen will be in Queensland. Well, he'd hate to see me here permanently in South Australia because, you know, he can see the writing on the wall. We've seen, you know, him starting to use lines around, you know, using terms like patriotism and being a patriot and things like that. I love the flag too. I love the flag too. The flag, exactly. Doing a bit of that messaging to maybe sort of take a bit of the edge off for some of the pain they might face.

21:24Yeah. And then this is in the context of the rise of one nation, what it means at the ballot box, but it's still a state election. You're going to be saddling up again in less than two months for the Farah by election. Again, not necessarily something that's usually such a big deal, but this one will be, I think, Matt Canavan, Angus Taylor, Jane Hume, have all joined their candidates in the seat of Farah on the hustings this week. Hanson, I think, has been there already. How closely do you think the feds are going to be watching this in terms of what's the message and what's the strategy or tactics for Farah? And Pika, you're in there in camera. Are they talking about it? I mean, I'll go first. I think everyone's going to be watching Farah. The thing about any individual election is people will overanalyze the entrails of any individual election, probably a little bit too much, but these are all very significant elections. Farah has a lot of local factors as well, but if one nation is surging in actual votes like polls are suggesting

22:24we'll be looking for that to occur in Farah. For me, what I'm really excited about seeing this year is I'm an empirical kind of guy. I like to see the data. We've seen a lot of opinion polls that we haven't been able to calibrate against real life elections since this surge has begun. So we're going to start to collect some actual data points that give us the granularity of electorate level results of polling booth level results that let us start to do a bit more of an analysis of what has changed. Okay, one nation support is up. Let's take that as a given for the moment. But where is it up and how is it up? South Australia this week gives us lots of good clues. Farah will give us lots of good clues. The Victorian election toward the end of the year will give us lots of good clues. But the other thing I think after this week, I suspect the national conversation about the dynamics of these parties is going to shift. Kind of no matter what the result is, because it will become real if it is real. And the parties will be responding in a more urgent, the major parties will be responding in a more urgent and critical way because of the other big elections

23:24coming up over the next year. And of course, if one nation underperformed the polls that the conversation around their performance will change inevitably as well. So this weekend I think is a really critical point that will set up the Farah, the conversation happening around the Farah by election. The result there will then set up the conversation that's happening in the Victorian state election toward the end of the year, which is going to be a very, very, very interesting contest. Casey, how quickly do you think we're going to get it? Just very briefly. South Australia is a little bit slower to count in historical terms than some other states. So it might be that the dribble of early results takes a little bit longer. We'll see how that goes. There's a record number of candidates in this election and some of the ballots are very long, which might slow down the count a little bit. So that's my first warning. Okay. You know, it might be a little bit slower than normal, but there are sort of two stories we're talking about here. It might be that we know Labor has been reelected very quickly and then the undercard battle, the liberal one nation battle, who is the opposition and what's the sort of formation of the non-Labor members of parliament that might take a bit longer to sort out. So you might want to tune in early to find out

24:25a Hillform government, take a dinner break and then come back a little bit later in the night and if you're not prepared to sort of slog it out for the entire evening. You better have some Red Bull on hand. Good luck. Oh, Casey, I will be watching you. You know what I'll be doing though? I'm not going to lie. I'm going to watch you. Slick over to my friends, the madilders. Slick back over to you. That's my Saturday night plan. Mine too. I have second screening for a reason. Exactly. Double screening. We're living in the right times for it. That's for sure. Thanks, Casey. Thank you. Casey, good luck. What a legend. Such a great friend of the show. How good is Casey, Fran? I love Casey. I can't wait for Saturday night. None with your pick. I'll be on that couch. Double screening. All night. We can't help ourselves. It's fair enough. Seriously, that goal that Santa kicked. I have launched that on repeat. Not exaggerating 35 times. It was like, oh, Sam was back. Oh, but just that angle. It was just so good. So how can you not wait for another moment like that.

25:27Please, dear God. Okay. Let's get into the other big stories of the week of the times. It was obviously huge week for news. Everyone knows that. It was dictated by the conflict in the Middle East. And of course, petrol prices. So the Prime Minister confirmed that there was a hit near a base where we're stationed. There was an Iranian projectile hit near that base. I can confirm that no Australian personnel were injured and everyone is absolutely safe. There was minor damage to an accommodation block and a medical facility due to a small fire that was created as a result of that projectile hitting on a road leading up to that base. I have really did so, friend, but the war was very much getting real. Exactly. I mean, this was ADF personnel have been stationed in this aluminium bad base in the UAE for a long time now. The no sign, or no proof, I think that this was directed targeted

26:30at the Australian troops, but as you say, it just gets very real suddenly. And the Prime Minister did push back when he was asked if this meant we were at war. And he's sticking to that line of, you know, we're very much defensive in our military assistance here. But Piguet, that didn't stop us getting blasted along with all the NATO Allies from Donald Trump, too. He put out this text on Truth Social. I think it was the middle of the night again, where he said the US had quoting this, informed by most of our NATO Allies that they do not want to get involved in the conflict. Because of the fact that we have had such military success, we no longer need or desire the NATO country's assistance capital letters, we never did, likewise Japan, Australia, and South Korea. And you go, well, you know, what did we do? They haven't even asked us for, they haven't even asked us for a boat to go help in the greater formals. But I think that, you know, the overtones were this president's getting a little desperate, sounding a little desperate here. But it's nevertheless difficult for a government.

27:31This is an important ally. Donald Trump has a lot of power on this world. Anthony Albanese has to manage these relationships, not quite so much the opposition. Andrew Hastie did the job. Look, I thought it was a petulant post from a president under immense pressure. Yesterday, he said from the Oval Office, I think it was that he didn't expect the straighter from us to be close for this long. Well, as I like to quote, Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face, and the enemy always has a vote. So this is a big problem, but we weren't consulted on the war. Let's be, let's be frank about that. We were consulted on the war, and our national interest is being served already without deployment of the E7A wedge tail to the UAE, an important golf partner. We also have interest that we need to protect in the Indo-Pacific as well. So one of the key parts of our relationship is reciprocity. We've been a longstanding ally of the United States. We've met our obligations. With that Alliance Framework, we've got a proud history,

28:32and I just don't think that's how you treat allies. I think it's a reflection on his character more than us. He did do the job, and it's a really interesting intervention. Andrew Hastie has almost become the rank-and-file sort of voice of the people, thinking, who is this guy telling us, you know, this wild stuff making these statements, which I think is the view of many voters. I won't quantify it. I'm not sure, but certainly is a sentiment in this country, and he's really embracing that by calling out the Trump stuff. Interestingly, though, there's some bigger dynamic shift that I've seen in the coalition, which is at odds with what actually we're hearing from Andrew Hastie, and I reckon this is going to be really interesting to play out. In the broader coalition, you'll notice, think about pre-election coalition, and the way Dutton would have responded to this. It would have been a full kind of, well, Trump,

29:32you know, by mentioning us clearly, wanted our support, what were we doing, you know, what's the Prime Minister's dropped the ball? Don't you reckon that would have been the narrative now? The coalition is kind of really backing in labor on, you know, the way that Trump's really pushed the envelope on this. I just think that that's, that there's been a really interesting shift in the way the coalition is playing the politics around Trump, Fran. Yeah, though, I'm not sure it's entirely uniform. I think you're right. Andrew Hastie has very much led that, and in a sense, I suppose, that puts pressure, wedges the rest of the liberal leadership and the coalition leadership to do the same. I'm not necessarily sure that would have been, would have been the case. I'm seeing the same thing in the fuel debate. You know, there's a lot of, as I say, you know, chopping at Chris Bowen for being asleep at the wheel for, you know, not really having, having any sort of sense of control over what to do to protect, particularly the regions in terms of oil supplies. But we seem to have, you know, some calling for more direct intervention,

30:33more sovereign capability. Are they talking building refineries? Others just saying, well, they've just got to do more, he's just got to get across it. It's the messaging I don't think is completely uniform, coming from the coalition at the moment. Now, that's probably because this is all happening in real time. But that intervention by Andrew Hastie, I thought was a terrific one, because it did what is harder for a Prime Minister to do without taking a shot at, you know, just a political shot at the government. And we heard the same sort of approach by a very different tone, but by the new Deputy National Party leader, Darren Chester, on breakfast, when it came to, you know, what the government's doing to look after farmers in the region. Again, quite bipartisan, quite supportive of the Minister and the job she's doing there, and just sort of being reasonable. People in Australia, the agricultural sector, will understand that we are a huge producer of food. We can produce enough food for ourselves, but the actual critical inputs into the industry, like fuel and fertilizer and pesticides,

31:34are rely on national supply chains, and when they are disrupted, the risk to food security becomes a real one for us. So that is the longer-term issue, and the need for national food security strategy is more pressing than ever, and I'm certainly backing the Minister and the endeavours to achieve that. Still saying Labour got a handle is better, they got to get on top of it, but noting that they are doing that today with this National Cabinet meeting we talked about, and this appointing of a supplier chain, Zah. And I think it's welcome at a time like this, like I really think this is not the time for cheap political point scoring, and I think the public will welcome it, because I think there is real and genuine fear, and concern if not panic in the community, and real needs, particularly in fear, in regional Australia, because as we keep hearing, it's planting season coming up, fertilising stocks are under threat, and it's good to remind people, as Darren Chester did, and the government has about Australia getting in place, you know, a year-rear facility, so we will have the fertiliser's homegrown.

32:36This is all about, it's again harking back to where we were at COVID, about the supply chain stocks, and we've got to get, you know, more sovereign capability, which is what the government was trying to do with its whole future made in Australia, and that is a point of difference and conflict between the government and the coalition, that that was all about green energy, and Andrew Hastie and others are all about, let's go full tilt back into our own gas production, our own oil production, if not refining. Yeah, the way that the Prime Minister is starting to frame it, is really interesting, too. He gave us speech, which I thought was really, gave us some insight into where labour will go more and more. This sovereignty word is the new black, like it's really kind of cool, everyone's leaning into it in different ways, and the Prime Minister is talking about needing a new economic model, I think they'd pressed the pause button, the little on some of the sovereignty talk, post their opposition days in COVID, where they really talked it up,

33:36now they're leaning back into it. So, national cabinet happening soon, we're recording before it, but yeah, we'll get the energies out, we're going to get sort of a lot of strong talk, as well, strong rhetoric, and some outcomes, of course, which is all about sending the message to Australian consumers and business, that the government's on top of this, whether that works, and whether people will feel confident that the government is all over it, I'm not sure, because we are seeing also, in real time, a massive escalation of the war, and a lot of global instability, and this brings me to this week, right? So, we've got the interest rate rise, that was very much a decision, can I say the bank was split, but a decision the bank made based on, according to its statement, and the governor's own press conference, on the back of inflation figures by the end of last year. So, this is a reaction to our inflation problem,

34:36which is very much homegrown as well. Not just this is not war, that's what I'm trying to say. No, no, you're right, and again, it became very real this week with this interest rate rise from the RBA, and then at the same time, I think some of the language from the Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock, who does these press conferences, the R word was raised, recession, she basically said something that I've got to say, freak me out, which is, yeah, we might need to go into one, if we can't deal with inflation, obviously they want to deal with it, you know, without going into a recession. We don't want to have a recession, but if it's hard to get inflation down, then, you know, we're going to have to deal with that, possibly. But that's going to be pretty ugly, if that's on the cards, and if that happens under a Labor government's watch, that will be very different, difficult politics for them, Fran. Like that is difficult territory, the last time Labor presided over a recession, if that does materialise, and just to be clear,

35:36the treasurer says they do not anticipate it, they're not forecasting it. But if it is to happen, that is, that is, I'm just going to say it's diabolical for the government. That was the word I was going to give you, it's diabolical, and PK, you know, how's that going to impact how the treasurer frames this budget? He's giving a big speech today, and, you know, I think you've had a bit of a sneak peek at, and the messaging, but it comes at a time when sovereign capacity, talking about being a sovereign nation is great, but that normally means some kind of government subsidy, government backing, you know, government targeting certain industries, and we've had a lot of that since COVID, it's just all a bit too slow and a bit too snoozy, really. But, you know, this is not a budget where the treasurer's got a lot of money to be chucking more subsidies at more industries, is it? No, it's not, and all of the messaging is interesting. We saw a subtle shift, he denies as a shift, but I see it as a bit of a shift, where we're hearing a bit of a stronger sense of responsibility from the government about the level of money

36:38in the economy at the moment, clearly for shadowing belt tightening and trying to pull money back to deal with inflation, that's clearly a big issue for them. Also, in this speech, which is key, there's a lot of, kind of, these are the options we've modeled for how bad the situation is going to be. Now, there's a lot of getting voters prepared for just how bleak it is. Oh, we've seen this all before. It's very specific and very, it's part of the political theatre of getting people. Expectation, isn't it? Getting people ready for difficult decisions. And the treasurer, interestingly, is using this budget now and the crisis that we're seeing to galvanise his own long-held belief that we need bigger reform and seems getting some support from his own side to go there.

37:40And I think that's really an important moment, really. I think this budget is going to be a reform budget. I'm there. I'm saying it. I don't actually think they're going to squib it. I think they feel like all of the stars are aligning things. Ah, so bad, that the public kind of is ready for something big. And exactly how that looks, or we've got little hints, of course, we've talked about, including, you know, the capital gains tax concession changes. But, Fran, I think he's now getting us ready for some big change and they've worked out, it's now or never. And I think some of the big changes are going to be big cuts or significant cuts, which means, you know, what are the areas of big spending, PK, the defence? No, I don't think they'll cut there. No. NDS, can they go more on the NDS? Health, age care, all these areas. These are services that people need and want. You know, that's politically very difficult. We'll do the cover of this conflict in a sense, give them greater permission and support from the community to do it. But, you know, we shall see.

38:40I can't wait to hear what the treasurer has to say. He'll be asked. Think about the age care reforms, or obviously that was a big process. But what did that end up coming up with as a concept? More user-place. Yeah. Means testing and user-place. And it's quite harsh for some. Yes. So, watch that space because there's a lot of money swirling around, which is not based on means testing and user-place. And I think you will see more of that. That's just my hot tip in that model. Because if you want to pull money back, well, that's the obvious low-hanging fruit isn't about where money is going, and who has access to it. On that note, can we leave them laughing? Is there anything positive we can talk about? Can we leave them laughing? I don't know. Can I talk about the tillies again? I see only good thing that I can think of. I'm serious. I'm like on a countdown for that. Please give us some silver.

39:40That's the only thing I'm looking forward to. But it's a good thing. It's a good thing. Because without that. Yeah. I'll just be thinking about petrol prices and recessions. I don't really want to think about recessions all again. It's our moment to rally around the flag. And, you know, we are playing Japan on Saturday night. They've been scoring like there's no tomorrow in this championship. So Sam, it's over to you. Go tillies. That's it for the party room today. And keep sending your questions in because we love getting them and giving space to them in our fortnightly question time additions. We're especially, of course, fond of the voice notes. Send them to the party room at abc.net.au. And don't forget, David Spears will be back with insiders on background on Saturday. And then PK, Monday rolls around. And it's back to you with politics now. And it's the sitting fortnight starting on Monday. I'm coming to Canberra again, just to cover the sitting fortnight. So, of course, it'll be a really important week. There'll be legislation on price gouging. And I think the kind of energy debate and the sort of crisis wearing on fuel

40:40will very much be a dominant issue. So definitely listen to that. That's it. Remember to follow us, politics now. Also share with your friends, please. That's the only way. Anyway, we don't really get much of an advertising budget here at the abc. We do rely on you sharing. And that would be absolutely a delight for me. See you, Fran. Five stars, people. See you, PK. Hey, Fran. Yes, PK. How do you spend your time when you're not talking politics with me? Honestly, PK, how many times do I have to tell you? I have a show. It's called The Radio National Hour. I can tell you it's always on in my household. When I walk through the door, tell me more about the show. Well, it's everything but politics. You'll not do the politics, but on the Radio National Hour one day, I'm speaking with a Greenland minister. The next day, it's Rose Byrne in New York or a scientist who spent their career chasing icebergs. Is there anyone on your interview bucket list? I'd love to speak to Jane Fondre again. Well, you're only human. We'll check out the Radio National Hour right here on ABC Listen.

41:42See you there.