Why Matt Shaw Is MORE Valuable to the Chicago Cubs Than You Think

0:00This is the CHGO Cubs related podcast driven by Toyota. Let's go places. My name is Corey. I am joined as always by Brendan. We are coming to you. It is January 22nd, Brendan. And I saw PCA and Caleb Williams there together all the time. They're best friends. You know, they were at the Bulls game the other night. I was also at the Bulls game. Were we there together? I don't know. Chicago Roads. You know, you got the King of the Cubs Podcasts. We got the King of the Chicago Bears and the King of the Chicago Gubs. Look at them. Equal footing. That's right. The Holy Trinity some say. Yeah. So on tonight's episode, we will continue looking at the overall scope of this offseason. The Cubs still connected to some rumors. We heard some talk at Cubscon that maybe they're not done. What that might mean.

1:01And I think because in the fallout, of course, of the Alex Breggen signing, Mat Shaw's name, what his role would be, how the Cubs might utilize him. And will they trade him? Are all conversations that seem to be taking place on a daily basis? I know Boston Red Sox fans have kind of discovered Mat Shaw. It seems like and their interest. They might match up as a trade partner with some of their young pitching. If that's an option that Jed Hoyer and Company decide to explore. So we'll take a look at that. And just, yeah, like I said in the intro, pictures and catchers reporting right around the corner somehow, Brendan, as it prepares to be negative 15 degrees in Chicago. So we've got to get ready for that Mesa Sun. It's going to come fast, too. I mean, once the last four weeks hit, they just fly by. You start seeing more pictures and catchers reporting before the official deadline. We have a good friend of his bicycle out there, taking pictures every single day, Mat Shaw's in the outfield, taking reps in the outfield in Mesa already. Justin Steele is showing bullpen videos today of him

2:06throwing off a mound. It's exciting. Before you know it, we got 200 Cubs games coming that year. For better or for worse, get ready. 200. Yeah, we'll spring training. Oh, you're adding spring. I was like, how many playoff games would they? I'm like, Oh, okay, I see what you're doing. Oh, we could know with the playoffs. So before we dive into some of the Mat Shaw stuff and the current rosters, we can take a look. Zips projections came out. We can take a look on that. Very bullish on the Cubs position group. Not so much on their starting pitching group. We can talk about that and like why it kind of lands that way. Going back to CubsCon though, the 2016 reunion. Any part of that particularly jump out to you. I have an answer and it's not necessarily one of the prominent ones. Of course, John Lester is going into the Cubs Hall of Fame. You know, I would you're bearing the lead. I would have done this long to chain myself to the fence that really feel if they were going to make any other decision. But I look forward to that,

3:08you know, John Lester day at the ballpark. That sounds wonderful. But any any part of that that released it out to you. I mean, there's so many. I loved, I'm not sure if you saw it. I loved Rizzo's story about John Lester throwing when he had an off day. It was on ENAPS broadcast and just a paraphrase. If you guys haven't seen it, go wash it. It's hilarious. But the short story is that Rizzo had an off day. Lester comes into, I believe they're playing the Mets in New York and Lester sees the lineup and he turns to Rizzo and he goes, I have ENF and half playing paraphrase today while ENF is like unbeknownst to John Lester right behind him in the weight room. So I thought that was fantastic. And so always a reminder that ENF was part for a little bit of that transition in 2017. So all of it was great. They did a great job with that really good content. You know, the panel was like Ryan Demster, the podcast with the ENHAPP. It was all great. Rizzo

4:09being the standard bearer now for the Cubs is awesome. I think that's like the, you know, posting the guys. That's probably the perhaps the thing that jumps out to me the most is just like him coming back, but but really embracing this role. Like others have in the past, not just for the Cubs, but for Chicago teams in general, like being that brand ambassador and and it's really lovely to have him back and not in New York and a different uniform anymore. But honestly, like the thing that kind of popped me the most was the group picture and Theo Epstein. I miss him. I know, man. I know. And he wasn't super prominent in a lot of the stuff. Obviously hasn't, you know, been back too much, but I'm looking at that picture and I saw him and I was like, right? Theo, Theo, Theo. I mean, it had to be the first time that all of those guys in the past what five years must say all those guys, at least like five or six of them were together in one room. You had Theo on the left side. You got Jed on the right side. You got Joe Madden front and

5:14center. You got Travis Wood front and center too. I mean, it was, it was my my quick conspiracy theory is that the Breggman deal gets over the line because Jed couldn't bear to face Theo. Having not signed a big, a big create. No, I do wonder how that goes down because Theo's on my a minor owner with their rusts, I believe, or there's some type of situation where there is some influence. So I wonder like Theo goes up to just like, hey, you S O B, you took Breggman from me, you know? Yeah, I don't know about that. I just imagine Theo, you know, ribbing him for, you know, come on, big boy, you got to spend, you know, where's where's the splash, Jenny boy? I'm sure you probably did like poke probably yet for that. I'm serious. Anyway, love all that. But back to 2026 Chicago Cubs. And, you know, also immediately loving, as we talked about, I think a little bit last week, everything we're hearing about Alex Breggman just from his conversations with current players, coaches, all that other stuff, seeing him

6:17at these various Chicago sporting events is really great and really just immediately kind of embracing Chicago culture. But it does jump us. I think let's just get into our headline conversation here. And we can talk about the rest as we go through the show. Matt Shaw, it certainly creates an interesting situation for the Cubs. We talked about this when the Breggman deal goes down, possibly do you operate from a position of strength in the trade market and say, hey, you know, we feel that our infield depth to a degree is somewhat expendable. If it had to be if the right offer came across, maybe you supplement other areas of your team that you've kind of lost from over the years. Or do you say, hey, like we were really excited about Matt Shaw's and organization is development in the second half. And we're thrilled to have that as a super utility man. And, you know, we hear all the, he was there the other day, Harvey Baez, like 2016, even someone like Ben Zobris who certainly wasn't a utility man,

7:18but playing every other position on any given day and really kind of flexing that depth muscle, which is not something they were able to do last year, of course, at the third base position or across the infield. So starting, like I know what you really wanted to dive into today, was kind of taking a look back at that season last year, just kind of laying an expectation of what you might expect from someone like Shaw, who had such an up and down rookie year, starts in Japan, goes down, makes several really noticeable swing changes, and puts together a really excellent second half all while developing and becoming a very fine defensive third baseman. Where does that leave them going into this year? Yeah, the first question that came to mind when we were talking about Shaw and Bergman was, how many played appearances could he even get on a full roster? And when we did those calculations, it was about 500, even if you assign Tyler Austin for around 300 or give Moist by

8:24Starrows around 150, you can still make all this work. I still believe you can make Matt Shaw work on this roster. That being said, the value that he poses in this league is extraordinarily high at this moment. He will not be a free agent until 2032. The Cubs you just mentioned have a poor pitching projection by zips. They have a very strong positional projection. How does Jett Hoyer reconcile those two? Is there a way to bolster the pitching projection? Not just for 26, but for next year and beyond, get equal value for one of the most in my opinion, valuable guys that could be on the market right now. And you win this year and win next year. In a vacuum, I will say, I don't like the idea of trading Shaw, even if it's for pitching. I don't like the idea of trading Shaw, a positional flexible player that has a high ceiling for a pitcher that typically

9:31projects to be more volatile over time. That said, I want to win next year. I want to win the year after. And I do trust the Cubs pitching infrastructure to identify those guys that would equate matchaws value. Yeah. And I think, you know, looking at our YouTube chat here, Randy Lewis, you know, mentions, if you trade Shaw, you lose your infield depth and, you know, different ways they could deploy him. And that's in that sort of the debate, right? You would obviously have an extremely strong third base to first base that you would anticipate playing basically every day. I think Craig Council has told Michael Bush, like, hey, we're not going to do the whole platoon thing anymore, or at least certainly not as frequently, like, you're our guy, go hit lefty's and this is our infield. Yeah. But yeah, I'm quite intrigued by the idea. It was part of the reason I wanted them to sign Bregman so badly was the ability to utilize Shaw in that way. And I

10:35agree with you, I don't think that finding the playing time would be an issue even if everybody is sparklingly healthy all throughout the year, which I think you certainly can't plan for. But I do agree with you, like, you're hearing a lot of teams looking for position, looking for help on the position player side. And I think that's the benefit of the situation the Cubs are in is that they don't have to make any moves. But if you do find a team that is desperate and really wants to swing a trade, you have the ability to say, hey, like, we want some of your top prospects or whatever it is that they're looking for. And unless you're going to pay the hefty price, we don't have to make this move. This isn't an absolute need for us. And we'd be thrilled to let Matt Shaw continue developing and see where that finds us. And that's why, you know, perhaps he's running in the outfield in Mesa right now. We do think about the Nico trade idea. We haven't thought about the alternative,

11:37the Nico extension idea. Let's say you do want to extend Nico. That does rule out Shaw. Brugman for the next five years, Dan's beef the next three years, Nico for maybe three plus years, Shaw would have no room to play for 27, 28 and 29. So that's not possible. If there's a reality where you can extend Nico before this opening day, or even throughout the course of the season, then I do believe the front office would absolutely explore maximizing Shaw's value in the form of equal value at a different position. And right now that position seems to be maybe starting pushing death, at least from what you and I can speculate. We don't know. You see the Boston rumors, you see the prospects there, not dangling, but the prospects you hear in trade. And then yeah, in the talks. Yeah, right. So you can go to see how it could match. But it would have to include a domino effect where you can sustain your depth, which right now I like,

12:39but also getting equal value in a different position. And those are very two challenging tasks to accomplish. Yeah, the Nico extension thing would certainly factor into it. And I think the front office's comfortability with making the move. It is interesting, though. It just seems like there's more and as always, even with the cups, like it's hard to know which writers, which blog guys, et cetera, et cetera, like no stuff or have their ear to the ground. But it does, I am seeing it like on Red Sox stuff, like they're like, how about match, like it seems like the Cubs could trade match, huh? Well, me if I were, we all told them to go away. I mean, if I were the Red Sox and you're looking to fill up a positional spot, like Matt Shaw would check my boxes. We'll get into it after the next segment. But you're talking about a guy who played in my opinion, go glove caliber defensive third base. And then the second half that he showed with the power, the ceiling, he was a top 30 prospect entering the league last year, the values exceptionally. Hi, Massachusetts. And that too, you have the hometown vibe to them. So I understand from

13:45the rest of the point of view, why you would want to get a player like Shaw. And it's not to discount what Shaw's value is. Whenever we talk about trade ideas or talk about the rumors that we see, it's not discounting the value of Shaw. It's in fact bolstering that value that we even get to discuss a blockbuster-esque deal that would transform the Cubs roster now in for years to come. Yeah, and look, I mean, before we hit our first ad break here, this is the position you want the Cubs to be in. Right. It's not a move they have to make. It would be one that they're making because they feel comfortable with the depth they have. And because someone's making an offer where you're saying, okay, I mean, this was our former first round pick, top prospect. But this is a deal we feel like we can't pass up on, but not one that you have to make. I also want to, before I kick it to you for the ad break here, Brennan, I want to read this one from Jacob in our YouTube chat. Normally, listen, on Spotify, this is not how I figured you guys look. First of all, I appreciate you turning in all the time, but here on YouTube, Jacob, and you could never predict

14:50that Brennan's hair looks that good. It's not possible. Wow, that is a, that's the nicest thing you've ever said to him. You've got to have assumed that. So let's hit our first ad break here. We'll come back and we'll do a little more of a dive on the adjustment Shaw made and what he did in the second half and just how you look at that going forward. Okay, Xfinity, Xfinity has a five-year price guarantee. What if you could have reliable and intelligent Wi-Fi? And what if you could keep it at the same price for those five years? That's right. That is the Xfinity five-year price guarantee. Imagine Wi-Fi the next everything in your home work together. That finds if fix his problems before you even notice them, like super intelligent Wi-Fi with the sixth sense, and that lets you stream the game when the whole family is online, all your devices work in a perpt harmony for five whole years. Here's the best part. No animal contracts, no hidden fees, and Xfinity's best equipment is included. Take it from me, a lot can change in five years. Championships are one,

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16:58the price you pay it is that simple do not miss out on the Ray Resolution Sales event for huge savings on new models for more info. It's a Ray CDJR today at Ratt12 and Fox Lake or online a Ray CDJR.com they're preserving the community since 1963. All right Brennan back with you as we continue talking about Matt Shaw. I do I like I love the conversation honestly in the YouTube chat because it it represents this situation that you know you have some kind of seemingly hoping that they trade Matt Shaw some ready for Niko to leave not ready for Niko to leave which is sort of anticipating and maybe getting shortstop money somewhere else and expecting Shaw to take over there and it does it does it it does represent a obviously a conundrum if you're if you're Jed Hoyer like you've obviously bought in to Matt Shaw over the years and kind of planned to have him in the fold and certainly after the second half last year I think that was more apparent but people come calling and you know you feel like you're getting something that you maybe

18:02wouldn't have expected and that value is at a level where you're like man you get that from Matt Shaw like now now hold on a second maybe we'll have to reconfigure our plans if if you know maybe it opens up extension conversations with Niko Horner or makes you sort of say hey we'll cross that bridge when we get there but I want to take a look back at what Matt Shaw did last year and just kind of how it would play into next year and we'll do that in our taking the temp segment taking the temp is presented by your trusted local experts at four seasons heating air conditioning plumbing and electric visit four seasons heating cooling dot com for all their special offers and money saving coupons that's four seasons heating cooling dot com all right Brendan we saw this swing changes we saw the growth on defense even looking at the video I think our a good friend Rich posted the other day he's back in the cage I know you were like putting your you know like those glasses that like jewelers wear like to look at the swing changes as hand

19:05position all that take us through what you saw and kind of how you put it together the two halves of last year and now with Alex Breggman in the fold Matt Shaw is here let's say he's going to be a super utility guy how would you kind of expect that to go yeah whenever I see prospects come up I'm always looking at changes they make right away we saw with pico Armstrong we started with Miguel Amaya we saw with Kyle Schorber in years past we saw it with Rizzo we saw it with every single player when guys debut fast forward five years they never look the same in some cases the extreme versions they are hardly recognizable Rizzo's a perfect example it's called up as a podgeray hands are high a couple of years later as trade for Andrew cashier to the cubs hands are low he's crowding the plate looks like a completely different guy so Matt Shaw last year followed a similar extreme trajectory and we saw from the moment he debuted in Japan that he had a closed stance this is a fantastic simplistic

20:12view of Matt Shaw's batting stance changes over the years or over the months rather by Sam Elric and on the left you see him in Japan so you see that front foot inversion you see his numbers fully facing you you see even his full last name facing you he almost looks like you know a closed version of Edgar Renteria to some degree all of a sudden he starts making adjustments may rolls around a little bit less inversion a little bit more relax hands are a little bit lower and then June rolls around look at that open stance he isn't open stance the hands are higher by August he looks like hobby bias literally looks like a bias in 2017 so he went from Edgar Renteria to hobby bias in a matter of five months and what followed that was a significant extreme difference in run production and offense in the second half when he had more of an open stance

21:18had higher hands he started to pull the ball more he had 11 home runs in the second half a 357 weighted on base average a 130 WRC plus he was one of the most valuable offensive third basements in the league and the way he did this was noticeable on the top left you see his monthly whiff rate so you see in April whiff rate around 30% it went down to just about league average of 12% and then a shot back up as the months went along but the production the power coincided with whipping less typically you don't see that in the chase to never deviated to extreme levels he was at his best hitting home runs with about a league average chase rate which you see in the bottom left now this is the most fast any part of the shot he went through the minor leagues as an opal hitter so he went to the right field all the time he saw that close stance he saw his ability to go to the opposite field the reason he was so successful in the second half with those adjustments

22:22was that he hit the ball with a contact point way more in front of home plate that led to pull side power pull side doubles pull side home runs with a steeper bat angle as well all together what this means is that you in match up make a significant mechanical adjustment that immediately preceded league best offense as a third basement in the second half this is the principal reason why there's fans who did not want Alex Brugman because they see the changes that he made and they think what do we do when spending 175 on Brugman when I just saw the defense I just saw I saw his power in the second half what are we doing but in the way I interpret this is like oh my god we got depth that teams want you can put match on the hobby by as utility man really can put match off and maybe that Ben Zobras play wherever you want to roll this is a good thing in my opinion and it even escalates his value even more because what we saw with the power and the contact

23:23profile on the changes to me suggests that this is a guy who you can count on for production next season well and I think you know honestly Brendan like that's how at least I want them to operate I understand if people you know are big believers in match on want him to have a set starting position and kind of that comtrability but I also think that's the space you want the cubs to be operating from like yeah we're comfortable with this we're going to go over the top though like we can have matcha and Alex Brugman like and there's no reason you can't like you can make that work so I'm excited for this the the the shot of him changing the swing over the four one year is nuts is it nuts it's crazy think about how like difficult hitting a professional pitcher in baseball is and then to think about those adjustments over the course of your rookie season at age 23 right pretty nuts I pretty impressive what he was able to do yeah and he's not alone too I mean this is one one reason why I'm excited about the cubs developmental system because PCA did

24:27the same thing in 24 Miguel Mai did the same thing in 24 and for the years with the core and winning the world series in 2016 we saw that a little bit slower Ian happens a little bit slower Shorber was way slower Havi even Havi was a little slow you didn't see that breakout until what 2018 where he finished second and MVP after chili Davis was hitting coach but you didn't see the the rapid progression in a one year basis I'm like a month a month basis so when I see PCA develop and adjust that fast and that shot doing the same thing in Miguel Mai almost in the exact same pattern in terms of significant mechanical adjustment preceding obvious improvements in offense it leaves me very encouraged yeah so just because we were talking about some of the zips projections looking at you know where they have them they have them getting 530 played appearances 115 hits

25:31in those 16 homers it's it's going to be fascinating I'm very curious to see in spring training if they really do see through the test in the outfield stuff is it easier Brendan because you can throw him out there and just ask PCA to cover yeah you just got to catch the ones that are directly above you anything else Pete's just going to catch it don't worry about it yeah I mean honest to God like I thought about this a couple of times I'm thinking what if you have a certain hitter who doesn't hit that many fly ball slow what if you have like make a magical on the other team honest to God I would have like a short center fielder like a backup backup shortstop and have to have PCA play like left setter and right center I'm sure he could do it you know and we'll get into more of these zips projections we you know just looking at some of the available projections that are out there but as I just read those you know numbers 530 played appearances they have him at 321 on base 409 slug 110 OPS plus a little north of two wins above replacement like

26:39sounds like a really strong utility man who's getting plenty of look on the team how many played appearances do they get him that was over 500 yeah that's my point right it's like you can still do all of this and get the at bats you need for the entire roster and make this work it's a really appealing piece they have in in that shot yeah I think look it also lessens the pressure I think part of the issue with the way the roster was constructed last year was that if that didn't work out the gate you didn't have quality depth at third base and we saw that rear it's ugly head he needed to get sent down for the betterment of his development and you didn't get a lot of production there until he came back you got pretty bad production over there I believe league worst for a while until he came back so now you're operating in the in in the other position you have an extremely strong third baseman and whatever you're able to get from Sean his continued development is a massive bonus and just takes this offense potentially from really strong to

27:42hopefully elevating it to that next level now the thought exercise Brendan is has this entire conversation just been geared toward the very slim chance that anyone from the Boston Red Sox is listening and they're like wow sounds great cups fans are high on match up right listen I I mean I mean this genuinely if I were a resident teaching stuff probably came across Craig Breslow's desk at some point right last year right zero chance he's consulting you you know before making this move my other one making the deal over here I don't want to make the package you will never will ever know let's go ahead and take our second ad break here we'll come back around we'll finish some of these talks about projections and Shaw's value and go from there you all can you believe we're already a month in 2026 and somehow my mornings are still chaos I skip breakfast I sprint to work I tell myself I'll just eat later and suddenly it's 2 p.m. I'm running on fumes I'm trying to get back to do the show with you Corey that's where he will

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29:48fancy or just want a quick bite that got you covered you do not even have to leave the property you can stay in style at the luxury hotel it's just steps away from what many call the Midwest best sports book heading to a bucks game this winter or looking forward to those cubs games during the summer you can start your day right at powder wadami hit the sports books and then head out to the games all right there super convenient Milwaukee's got a full winner lineup concerts festival sports you name it powder wadami is the perfect home base for all of it powder wadami casino hotel Milwaukee your win is waiting go check it out I hope get out there during the summer when the cubs are playing the birds saw the pictures last year Corey looks like a fantastic time I was about to say our our visit to powder wadami was great and it's about one of the last like great memories of being in the top of the division not that season but the you know Tucker and PCA were ripping home runs and you know the I think that was the night after like bush hit that big grand slam on

30:49the Friday night game and that was that last like who were these guys in the brewers lineup moment that that changed pretty quick before we get back to some of these projections Shaw the pitching and stuff like that I do want to you know talk about Freddie Peralta leaving the division really quickly this is the Cubs related podcast technically this falls under that I'll all say is I'm thrilled to not have to deal with him for the year I'm sure that these prospects the brewers get from the Mets will kill us each put up a six war season and you know along with some recently DFA Miami Marlin like ruin our lives for the foreseeable future but you know outside of like a pretty big swing for me and half in the playoffs this year like not a guy that they have typically faired well against and I think overall Brendan like representative there's a lot of conversations about small market teams big market teams stuff like that like it does represent and the Cubs

31:51have done this right we've seen them you know extend their willingness to defer money in Alex Breggman to shell out and out bid another you know big time franchise for a player they really wanted etc etc I think we're not hearing as much about like the rigidity of the luxury tax and things like that so that seems to be progressing in the right direction but like part of the reason we were clamoring for that the last couple off seasons was this is a time not to be content in the division this might be the weakest the division and again I'm not taking anything away from the brewers I fully expect that they will pull someone out of somewhere and ruin our lives until proven otherwise right they're good at what they do and how they operate and I'll believe it when I see it but like when you and I like we're a little younger the idea that like the cardinals wouldn't think of themselves as like the flag bearer and trading players off and not spending big or you know at all in free agency and like being that kind of powerhouse in the division

32:56that was kind of like unfathomable for a while so to be in that position like you're not in the N L West you're not in the N L East you're not in the A L East take advantage don't look at it and say hey maybe if we're an 87 win team we can win the National League Central look at it the other way put a 95 win team on paper and unless the brewers win 40 of 45 games again like last year you're going to win the division and that's how you should be operating and I'm glad the Cubs have operated that way I'm glad to not have to face Freddie Peralta so many times at least if it's only for a year yeah I mean I was looking at the return jet Williams one of the two guys they got back I'm going to jet Williams I'm like oh yeah this guy's going to ruin my life he looks he looks like Pat Murphy's son like I'm like I'm done like this guy's going to be stealing 50 bases probably steal four and one day against the Cubs so I'm sure like you said they're going to find a way as they always do develop their guys among the best in the league give them their kudos and they're going to be right up there with the Cubs the the recent trend we've heard that you just highlighted the luxury

34:03tax is giving me some optimism because we're hearing both ownership we're hearing presidents on the baseball side in Jedhoyer as well as a business upside in Crank County discuss that they may go over the luxury tax and they're not quote-unquote finished whatever that means sure but you also hear reports that yeah they actually make it continue to spend we're hearing reports about them being involved with Zach Galen right might make 18 over 20 million dollars next year for multiple years if they sign someone them of that caliber it would push them well over the first year and bring them at the second tier of the tax if that's the case Corey the 95 wins you talked about that becomes exceptionally realistic like right from opening day that I started thinking what is the brewers win projection next year is it 85 86 because if that is the case you're talking about like a seven to eight win difference and that does create some

35:04separation sure in terms of like bad case scenarios that I'm I would be thrilled to see yeah I mean look again the the brewers have proven that they're good at their way of doing things uh but ultimately at some point they're still risk in doing things that way Freddie Peralta's unknown commodity and of course they would have only had him for another year we know they're not you know likely to extend him at you know now the rates that are going for free agents like that's not gonna happen uh but there's risk like prospects are unproven Freddie Peralta was an established really good picture in this week and so to at least for a year I'm glad to not have to face him but yeah like they're good at the way they operate and typically they have been good at timing these things deciding when to move on from guys bringing in younger guys so that's the next hurdle for Jed right like maybe we're changing how we do some contracts we're going over the top a little bit you still got to figure out a way to be better at the little things that the brewers have been

36:08and they've been better than you had a lot of those things for the past several years well let me ask you a question sure continuing the math uh Shaw theme discussion you see the line up you see the projections let's say you get the pitching equivalent of match-off for next year okay which version of the roster was you want was you want the match-off version or the equal pitching version of match-off on this roster why was kind of anticipating a trade for Shaw might be a younger picture um in this scenario you're getting value impact you're you're getting equal value back so like would you rather have match-off step in that plus two or projection or you get back a picture that can slot in the top four of your rotation good that could also have 125 plus endings that may be worth two wars well in this scenario which one would you want I think I'm taking Shaw I want to go to you right and a lot of pitching depth that you can never have too much but I'm yeah even when I you and I were talking about we can touch on it like when they I'm

37:12reading those at Galen rumors I'm like where is everybody starting when it what is this like a nine-man rotation like you know ingest but yeah I think I take the offensive depth honestly yeah I mean the cups last year they had nine starting pictures start at least four games I think Drew Palmer as was a couple of those but the point still stands so if you signs at Galen you can think okay well you can make it work right let's say you trade Shaw for a picture you can make it work but my hope is that we don't have the scenario like last year where Justice Teo goes down show that goes down taillon goes down Javier saw it is down right because in some respect that was like your 30th percentile bad outcome and of course you want to account for that because if the Cubs did not account for it last year well we would not be talking about them when you play off series but at the same time I'm trying to understand how I see the worst case scenario going next year and I almost feel better about the pitching now going into this year than last year and I'm

38:13worried more this year than last year about the positional depth particularly in the outfield now we had third base that problems last year I understand that but I didn't have this overwhelming concern that okay what if say it goes down who's playing right field is it Kevin Alcantara and if Shaw is going to play in the outfield it does ease those concerns a little bit at least yeah all right so let's and I don't want to run through the zips projections like you know I read Shaw's because we were talking one by one what I yeah okay next Alex Breggman but I do want to take a look at them and particularly I want to talk about why they're not as high on the pitching and where those numbers come from so I'll let you kind of maybe do a cursory overlook of the way that they've laid out the offensive and pitching projections and then I want to talk about that and as we review this this is going to be our big takeaway and it is presented by Exfinity

39:16imagine that so taking a look at these zips projections Brendan across the offense especially that infield beautiful right they've got Breggman 3.7s Danzby 4.1 Niko 3.9 Bush 3.5 wins above replacement across the infield that would look mighty nice but when you look at the pitching from a war perspective Matthew Boyd leading the way with 2.4 nobody else above two wins above replacement so when you think about some of the potential the cubs have what we've seen from some of these guys in the past maybe that's surprising to some folks so I'm I'm throwing it to you what is your kind of again these are just projection models they're not gospel sometimes they're right sometimes they're wrong but we're a fan graphs family here we like these projections and it's just you know a predictor heading into the year so how do you think how do these systems arrive at whether

40:17they're hotter cold on a particular area of the team well I don't make these models so I always have a little bit of discomfort say oh this is how you have your own proprietary some some of them I do Corey actually believe it or not but I don't want to speak out in like oh this is how it's done yeah I can gloss over I want you to run through the code for me how are they you know I can do that broad brushstrokes but for zips I've been following zips like as long as I can remember Dan Zembrowski at things I say his last name I'm Bapornodsi names I feel Bapher even maybe mispronouncing anything that but his model from what I read is sort of similar methodology of other models in that it's a recent way of the past four years then using historical comps and aging curves to come at a set of projected value and those recent seasons especially the most recent one is way the heaviest I bring that up and talking about the recent four years because

41:22I don't want to gloss over like this but in my mind like when I look at a fan graphs I look at the projections too but I kind of do a mental average of the last four years and I kind of just like mentally regress it and come away with just like you know overall their their average of four seasons four rows on their baseball card and for someone like Cade Horan you're going to see like under two more by the zips projection it's the computer like Cade has not pitched significant Indians at the minorly level he has one season of stellar play in a second half last year but it's not a lot of Indians so there's going to be natural air and projecting Cade Horan which means as a result you're going to get some air and you're going to get some wide ranges of his outcomes and that to me if I had to speculate why his war is under two if I'm going to bet on Cade Horan having a war better than two I'm betting on the over just because what we saw last year but it's not how these algorithms work yeah and I think you know without even digging into how they're

42:28putting them together it aligns with kind of what we've talked about where each of these guys in the rotation potentially has their ability concerns or just as you said that lack of that like consistent high-level track record year over year over year we saw you know guys run out of gas we have guys coming back that have had multiple injuries over the last couple years and so I think when you're looking at these things it kind of aligns with what I would have expected like they're not necessarily going to project on the super low end nor are they going to assume hey let's just take these two months from Cade Horan last second half multiply it by three and there you go that's his full season I understand that that's not where that would come from I think the Cubs also have several guys who outperform like they're fit they're guys who utilize the good defense behind them they induce soft contact and the Cubs have an elite defense behind them which isn't always

43:29something that you can project out you're looking more at the pictures themselves rather than anticipating kind of what's going on behind them which is an area that the Cubs have kind of identified and solved for pretty deliberately so it's interesting to take a look at those and we can continue to look at it more and and you know I think it was not super high on the the reliever group which again like that doesn't seem particularly surprising that's how it works right yeah like I would love to see projections from the relievers across the board but that's what the Cubs do they go out they get guys who may not have a consistent track record of success but they're able to leverage their stuff their profiles to get success in that immediate year and in fact for the Cubs bullpen even though maybe the numbers may not be up to standards by fans but I feel strong about the bullpen depth stronger than last year too I mean they spent over 30 million or close to 30 million on five bullpen guys at the big league level they signed seven

44:30minor league guys already who could bolster that depth should they have a good spring training so we're talking about 12 bullpen candidates five with major league contracts and the other seven who have played major league baseball at some point or close to it is exciting I do feel like despite those numbers being low for the pitching side there's enough volume there where you if you hit on a third of that well the numbers are going to be really encouraging for this team yeah and again I think the starting pitching thing aligns with what we talked about and even maybe takes us in and we can finish the episode with it you know talking about those rumors of gallon persisting like why are they still looking for pitching and it's all that we've talked about it's like right now do you have guys we we just watched this in the convention coming back that 2016 rotation and several guys who you were bookmarking they're going to make 28 plus starts they're going to throw 108 plus innings even guys like Arietta and Hendricks who were not as far along in their

45:33careers did it theater before and like you felt like could be a safe bet barring some freak injury that they would fit in right behind John Lester John Lackie and Jason Hamill who was also a guy who had been pretty durable throughout the years they don't have that and so when you look at those projections like of course Matthew Boyd was one of the better pitchers in the league in the first half last year we've seen Shota be a couple months into the season as the ERA leader in major league baseball but are you anticipating that from game one to 162 it can happen but the cubs are building this depth because you're not really sure and you don't have those guys who you can assuredly rely on just and steal multiple injuries a couple seasons in a row James and Tione has had a good bout of you know several injuries over the last few years and been quite inconsistent so that's why you're loading up on the option so that's a you know quick quick overlook at some of those zips projections I do love seeing PCA 4.9 wins above a placement personally is he the

46:39highest guy before point nine yes looking very quickly yes and you would take the overs where you're saying oh yeah yeah so would I oh my god we were talking about that at the bulls game the other night so yeah quick yeah quick look at the zips projections and kind of how they arrived there and that was our big takeaway presented by xfinity imagine that so finishing up here like I guess taking it from there like do you buy those Zach Allen rumors I don't know because we haven't what do we make of that I am extremely into it I just don't know if we're going to do it I mean we would we would enter unfamiliar payroll territory if they sign gallon to a 20-ish or so million dollar contract so I'm skeptical naturally but I am extremely into it when we were talking about how to improve the pitching two months ago obviously Cabrera was on the board this is even before Dylan sees we're talking about Dylan sees but gallons name came up and your pushback was

47:44ah if gallons the main pitching target I don't know how I feel about that well he's no longer the main pitching target he would be a complimentary piece and as next season ends you don't have pictures locked up showed us off the books boys off the books ah tyoans off the books and in some respect they're different pictures and profile and they value projections but in some respect I kind of put tyoan and gallon in the same bucket because tyoan is someone who's making 70 million per year but he has a diverse repertoire he has a great understanding of what makes him click he showing the ability to adjust over time he's been successful in many years and he's inexpensive I look at gallon and I kind of see the same thing ah he's someone who has a high ceiling in 21 who had high production in last year with the Diamondbacks had an ERA of 4.8 now if we look at the expected ERA over the last four years it's been between 3.8 to 4.2 so you can kind of put gallon in this

48:51category of being league average and for a 20 million dollar or so price tag with financial flexibility and a ceiling to boots and a profile that's projectable and moldable yeah I'm into it man I'm into him taking tyoans contract and just extending it absolutely okay yeah I mean look at at a certain point when those rumors came out early in the offseason I think my concern was like this is going to be their big splash and you know they're going to sell us on the upside etc etc now that I hate they're spending money they're trading top prospects they're doing all sorts of things I'm certainly intrigued by it I think that would have to be would there ever be a rotation going into a year that had more like hypothetical ceiling that like was as uncertain as that group if you threw him into it too for sure for but I will say like the concern is how do you make the Indians fits I don't really care you have guys on one

49:56of your contracts like like no offense to call and write tyoan showed it or boyed but you're not on the team next year so if you hold on hear me out on this I hear you from a fan perspective I think I look in the locker room that's a lot more complicated of course but what I'm saying is if you have to skip a start or two days and this is what correct council's hire to do and you're starting 25 games and a 28 games across four guys then Zach Allen can pick that up I'm fine doing that like if you have to take starts away from one year contract guys I don't really care as a fan and then that purpose is to elongate your rotation from 27 onwards when you do extend or rather sign gallon for a multi year contract so like I don't really care about that if that ends up coming to be the reality for not you're a nice problem to deal with right and I mean look it's it is also one of those things like the cubs wouldn't be making that move without some kind of plan

51:00for how they plan to divvy up those innings yeah I mean still it's not going to be back until like maybe what may or June we don't even know yet um we'll see you know I mean boys pitching the roll baseball classic I'm kind of skeptical you can go 180 innings again right um so you just you really don't know and of course there'll be injuries to at some point well and I think the the more interesting thing about this is that we keep hearing this connection this is one that came up real early in the offseason I think but then even after some of these other moves still hearing that connection from folks uh and pairing that with you know the we're not done type comments which again you know that could mean like a couple minor league invites or anything right like technically are they ever really done you know building a roster but you're putting it all together and I think like what what do they mean by that like what what do they plan on on doing and and now that we're hearing this connection again like people still kind of pushing this like where's that coming from like and and is that potentially a real thing but you know it's weird too

52:03because correct council talks about that on the positional depth side like correct council was talking during cubs gone and he said again the paraphrase that he's not comfortable with the roster depth at the positional side and how does how do we reconcile that with matcha being in trade's discussions like if you're going to trade a depth guy and your manager is expressing that he's not satisfied with the existing depth like what is going on here are we going to go out and spend like 20 plus million dollars more to get this depth and bolster the pitching like you start thinking a little bit crazy I'm not anticipating it but I truth be told I didn't expect to ever read that had signed Alex Breggman so do I still I'm still like revealing in that I still can't believe we have Alex Breggman I'm quite pleased did we talk about that press conference last week was that I think we talked a little bit about it yeah I mean jeez man like I'm still pinching myself with the thought of like Alex Breggman Nico Warner danceby swanson in the same infield I was reading

53:05some pieces by the athletic and Patrick Muni is a hot of about how danceby swanson saying he can learn something from Alex Breggman how they have the same attitude I'm thinking oh my god do you think that they're will they have to compete for who stands atop the dugout oh that would be something that's danceby swanson how it'd be something well how about this thing well I feel like Breggman's more of like a more out there type guy like dance he's going to be on the steps Breggman's almost on the field of play and then like he's going to have to hold that PCA from running onto the field at some point too so I feel it's going to be the pecky norther's going to be Breggman on the dirt danceby on the steps okay I'm you know we also got a we got to start the campaign from Michael Bush to get that gold glove needed across the diamond everybody he keeps progressing like this I think it's only a matter of time I want gold every who who would be left just Bush say uh and that's it Carson Kelly has one Carson Kelly does have one

54:08yeah that he boy has one too yeah all right he's something else what me say it has what the NPB gold glove is not a thing I believe that that are like an award for it yeah yeah let me technically has a gold glove although with the cubs I don't know if this gold I don't think he's going to win one uh here unless things and I'm not you know one of those like freaking out about his defensive stuff but I don't think he's going to win a gold glove no I don't think so either so but yeah I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm excited man I'm ready for them to get to spring training and I mean even seeing some of those early photos seeing Shaw working out like I'm I'm pumped for this team I'm ready for this team I think it's going to be a fun year and if they have more in store for us great uh that that sounds great I am rather fascinated about how they shake out the starting pitching stuff and just like how how that priority goes who's making the starts and you know especially like if and it's a good problem to have but if you end up in this scenario where

55:12everybody's healthy everybody's clicking what does that lead you to do do they swing a trade from that depth is that another position of depth that they can I mean I'll be a prime or a fixed scenario yeah you know you head into the deadline and you feel like you need you don't need all of it um yeah especially you know course correcting a little bit from last year you know you you didn't bring in that option that gives you that certain durable nature uh although I mean I think like outside of the major injury right like gallons had a few years where he's made 30 plus start no he's he's he's quite durable yeah 31 34 28 33 like so I mean that's a guy that's of course has had a significant injury right I'm not making that up I mean yeah let me look it up I think he had a pretty not a significant injury but something right okay well he's not a cub yet we don't not we don't have to know this well when he becomes a couple knows MRI results I could tell you that's but you know look again loading up on those options if that's your best kind of course

56:16of action like that at least gives you the the pieces to play with and and you only need a certain number of them to work out uh and that's what they're gonna do in the bullpen as well like they're gonna bring in a bunch of these you said no significant injury we're clear we're in the clear he's a little bit of the hammy issue that we're in the clear all right all right hey sign me up get to work on me how to be here you go yeah there you go Jed um but it'll be interesting and I think it's those are the areas I think that I'm most fascinating each year when we go into spring training we're not quite there yet you know kind of laying out those areas that were most excited to watch the storylines and and how they progress once again seeing how this team puts together the bullpen especially after last year two and watching the development of someone like Brad Keller from that early signing you know from the you know pitching showcases and changing you know is from a starter to reliever and that and watching his evolution now we've seen them reclaim guys and find success with guys like that but especially seeing that and having him end up as your you know best leverage

57:21guy in the playoffs it it is going to be one of those things I think we're all gonna be watching like who's this who's the Brad Keller yeah who's next um and then yeah just just keeping an eye on that starting pitching depth and who looks good who looks healthy and um seeing if they can kind of get it all to come together at that right time and in the way they plan it out this is the the most peaceful moments I've been a cubs fan in the past five years like well right now talking to me they'll lose the first game you guys and he's going to be freaking out on that that's why I said right now then let me finish a January 22nd I am more peaceful I'm actually a little complacent dangerously complacent wow but I'm going to enjoy the next three weeks I'll get photos from spring training to mesa gonna enjoy thinking about our infield our pitching volume our 19 bullpen arms competing that spring training like this is this is do you think now that we've

58:23seen it do you think Caleb Williams going to check out the backfields and mesa see how the the prospect oh yeah are you kidding me gotta see his boy PCA he's going to be their way more than you think you may be out there in the bleachers you know get him a sweet at rigley no he can he can go sit in the stands he can sit behind home plates you know PCA can go steal home he can hide he's a bleacher guy Caleb Williams in the bleachers yeah I don't know actually we'll see we'll get him with Rizzo the ambassador he'll he'll sort it out he'll take him around with you all right that's all we have for you Brennan and I will be back with you next week keep an eye on the rumors we'll keep an eye on what jet and company if they're not done indeed and as always the CHEO Cubs team will assemble for a breaking news emergency podcast if necessary otherwise we'll talk to you next week we appreciate your support and as always go Cubs