WHO CAN WIN THE TITLE: Is Kansas GOOD ENOUGH to Make a Final Four Based on Historic Guidelines???

0:00It's the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. What's up everybody? This is Ross Jackson, one of the hosts of the Lockdown Podcast Network, and if you haven't heard yet, we started a club and we would love for you to join. It's called the Everydayer Club, and one of the things that you get as a member is an ad-free version of the podcast that you're listening to right now. It works with whatever podcast app you already use, same episodes every day, just no ad. There's also a member's only group chat for fans of your team, plus a lot more. You can check it out by tapping the Everydayer Club link in the show notes. This Kansas fit the criteria of a team that can make a final four, and I'm going to help you with your bracket pick who can actually win a national championship. You are Lockdown Jayhawks, your daily podcast on the Kansas Jayhawks, part of the Lockdown

1:02Podcast Network, your team every day. What's going on, Derek Johnson with another additional Lockdown Jayhawks. Thanks for making your first listen every day, and thank you to Everydayer's Catching Each in every episode of the show, and for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network. On this episode of the show we're breaking down, does Kansas have what it takes to make a final four? It seems qualify that can make a final four based on some past parameters, and who can win the national title this year pick one of these teams if you want to win your bracket pick. Plus we'll get to my final four picks, which inevitably will be very wrong. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by five hour energy birthday cake flavors back. No fork needed. It's vanilla, cakey flavor, caffeinated cake and no sugar. It is party time. You can order now at five our energy dot com or on Amazon. Okay, so we're going to get into some prerequisites for who can win the national title, who can make the final four, and then I'll get to my picks and does KU apply to some of these different areas.

2:02Now, I will say this, like I always try to think of like the exception to the rule stories, like the for instance, the 2014 Yukon team. That was certainly like an exception to the rule. And like who would be the teams that would be the exception to the rules? And honestly, you could make a real case that Kansas could be one of those types of exception to the rule teams that, you know, if we look back on it and Kansas were to go on an incredible March run and make a final four win a title, we can look back and say, well, I know they were outside of this parameter that typical teams make. But this isn't wasn't your typical team. You had all the Darren Peterson stuff over the course of the season. You were basically had two different teams over the course of the season. There's enough there that you could see a world where KU could be the exception to the rule, which I think does give you at least a little bit more hope, though the way they're playing gives you a little bit less hope at this point in time. But we're going to go with some of these numbers of things that typically happen. These aren't the things that always happen, but they give us a good idea of what typically

3:02happens. And my thought process on this is, this is not a foolproof way for me to tell you, this is exactly what the final four is going to be. There ain't no way of figuring that out because these are humans playing a sport in a one-game elimination. Weird things are going to happen. But if I can increase your odds of picking two of the final four teams or picking three of the final four teams, it's going to heavily increase your chance at winning your bracket pool and gives us an idea of where Kansas sits among all of this. OK, so here's the first parameter for the final four teams. All 100 teams have made the final four. And this is going back to the year 2001, right? That's what I have data on. So going back to 2001, that gives us 100 and 100 final four teams. Obviously, you have no 2020, you know, final four teams, right? So you look at the 100 teams that made a final four since then, actually, I think that might be off. Is it two since 2000, whatever, over the last 100 final four teams, let's just put it that

4:06way. All have been top 11 seeds. In fact, I think that's an all-time thing. I don't think any team. I think there's been a couple 12 seeds have gotten to the elite eight, but yeah, everybody's been in 11 seed. And again, maybe there's an outlier in there, but do you want to be the one betting on the outlier that's going to happen one in X amount of times? Or do you want to go with the trends and try to increase your odds here, right? The other part of this too that I think is interesting is it feels like because of NIL, there is a heavier gap to the higher teams at this point in time. Okay, 98 of the last 100 final four teams were top 44 in adjusted EM on Kenpon. That's basically your overall rating, your offense minus your defense. They were top 44. And if we want to tighten that up a little bit, which we're going to, 93 of the top of the last 100 final four teams were top 31 in adjusted EM. So if you want to go with the loser restrictions, I'm giving you those that you can do this project on your own, I'm showing you the math, but I'm going to have the tighter restrictions

5:10to come up with an even more fine area because again, that's 93% right? You would miss on seven final four teams over 25 years, you know, 97 of the last 100 final four teams had top 75 offenses. If we tighten that up to 96, you get to top 68 offenses just to tighten it just a little bit more. And then 95 of the top one of the last 100 final four teams had top 90 defenses, but again, I want to tighten this down a little bit 90 of the last 100 final four teams had top 50 defense is 50. So that's 90% of the time. So those are what we're going to go with. We're looking for teams that are top 11 seeds in the NCAA tournament, top 31 on Kenpoms rankings, top 68 on offense, top 50 on defense. And by the way, these are all numbers based on what they were going into the NCAA tournament. These are not numbers after the NCAA tournament where obviously if you made a final four, you were going to boost your resume and boost some of your efficiencies, right? These are based on numbers going into the event here. Okay, going off the stricter ones, obviously, I don't need to tell you which 12 and 13

6:17and 14, 15 seed and 16 seeds don't no longer apply. So among the top 11 seeds, we'll go region by region here in the east, UCF and US both in the state of Florida, they're not in the top 31 on Kenpoms. So they're gone. TCU is not in the top 68 on offense. So they're gone Ohio State and UCLA are out on defense. So that leaves these teams who could potentially make a final four and we will do another little filter here to tighten this up a little bit more. But that leaves these teams pick one of these teams to make the final four out of the east. Duke, Yukon, Michigan State, Kansas, St. John's, Louisville, that makes it pretty easy on you, right? Because that's any of the top six seeds, right? Now we go to the west and Villanova, Missouri, NC State, Texas, all those teams are outside the top 31. BYU and Wisconsin do not hit the qualification defensively. That leaves Arizona, Purdue, Gonzaga, Arkansas, Miami and Utah State as teams that could make

7:18the final four based on these. Then you look to them in the west, Georgia, St. Louis, Santa Clara, SMU, Miami of Ohio, all those teams are outside the top 31 on Kenpoms. They're gone. Alabama is out on possession chart. I mean, defense, and that leaves Michigan, Iowa State, Virginia, Texas Tech, Tennessee and Kentucky. And then you look at the South, Clemson, Texas A&M, VCU, they're outside of the top 31. So here's the teams it leaves for you to pick in the South, Florida, Houston, Illinois, Nebraska, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, St. Mary's in Iowa. That is the deepest one. So there's more teams than I would like there, which is why we're going to run this through a little bit more of a even tire process to get us down. Who can make the final four in each region? Okay. So we're starting this next round with every team since 2018. So that would encompass since the three point line moved back in 2019, I believe. Maybe it was 2020. They've been top 180 in three point percentage.

8:20You could correlate it with the three point line moving back. You would correlate it with since Villanova won the title. And I guess revolutionized the three point line and college basketball. But every final four teams since 2018 has been top 180 in three point percentage. That gets rid of St. John's out of the east. It gets rid of Tennessee in the Midwest and that gets rid of Florida in the South. Now Florida is interesting because they're like outside the top 300 and three point shooting. But I think I saw stat that like in February, they shot like 36% from three. And then in March, they were shooting like 40% from three. So I don't know what to do with that. But yeah, over totality, they would be out. All but two final four teams during this span were top 190 in effective field goal percentage defense. That would get rid of Purdue, that would get rid of Miami, Florida in the West. And then it would get rid of Iowa in the South. So now we come up with still a good amount of teams to pick from in each. But now it's a little more narrowed down. So these would be the teams that I would be, you know, pick one of these teams in the final four.

9:23Duke, Yukon, Michigan State, Kansas and Louisville out of the out of the east out of the West, one of Arizona, Gonzaga, Arkansas or Utah State out of the Midwest, Michigan, Iowa State, Virginia, Texas Tech or Kentucky out of the South, Houston, Illinois, Nebraska, Vanderbilt, North Carolina or St. Mary's. Now for being realistic, Kentucky ain't got the vibes this year. I'm not picking them. I'm not picking North Carolina because some of those stats are boosted by the fact that Kale Wilson was on the team and he's not anymore. But if you pick from each of those, like again, there's a chance that one of those is wrong. That there ends up being some surprise final four team. But two or three of them probably come from that list. And again, if you're wanting to run your bracket pick, you probably need at least two or three of the final four teams. Correct. What about who can win a national title? And by the way, yes, rejoice. Kansas was on the filter down list as well. So Kansas can make a final four if we're just looking at a past history. And parameters.

10:24What about winning that national title? Does Kansas have what it takes to get there? And who can possibly cut down the nets based on what history tells us? We get to that next. This is Locked on Jayhawks episode of the show is brought to you by Robin Hood. What if sports are traded like markets? Now you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with Robin Hood prediction markets. It's not you against the house. It's you participating in a live market. You can buy or sell your positions alive all game long. You just sports knowledge in the moments that matter. Robin Hood prediction markets change to the game. It's people move in the action. So when the momentum shifts, you can move with it. You might have always known the game, but never had a dynamic way to apply that knowledge. Now I can actually take part live in a market powered by the people that you're no longer a spectator play by play. You decide trade every play with Robin Hood. Now they will across the US download the Robin Hood app now to begin. Today's episode is also brought to you by Wayfair. Spring is the perfect time to refresh your space and make your home better for you. Whether it's updating a room, adding some outdoor furniture,

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12:25which we are giving away $100 and locked on merch. So plus you get the month of March for free. March is free by using code March. Yeah, you guessed it. March is free by using code March to check out the every day or club. Lockdownpodcast.com slash every day. Okay, moving on to who can win the national championship. All right, so let's start here. Every team who has won the national championship over the last 25 years since 2001 has been a top seven seed in the NCAA Tournament. Now, again, if you wanted to play the game of, well, don't look at the outliers. You could say, really, it's like top four seeds because you take away that seven seed UConn team and over the recent memory. Obviously, Kansas did it as a six, but that was back in the 80s. In recent memory, it's been like all top four seed. So realistically, probably take the top four seed, but just for the sake of it, we'll include that UConn team. Top seven seed is a prerequisite to winning the national title.

13:29Every national title team since 2001 has an adjusted EM. So basically, you're ranking on Kenpom headed into the tournament of top 25. So we already know who the top seven seeds are in each region. Among the top seven seeds, here's who that eliminates in each region. In the East, UCLA, in the West, Miami, in the Midwest, Kentucky, and then South North Carolina. So you're not really getting any big dogs there that's three seven seeds in a six seed. Now, the next prerequisite is 23 of the top or 23 of the last 24 champions. So again, there's an exception to the rule here, but I don't want to play the game of to the exception of the rule. 23 of the last 24 champions had a top 21 adjusted offensive efficiency entering the tournament. That gets rid of a lot of teams, especially in the East. East is more of a defensive loaded region. Bye-bye, St. John's. Bye-bye, Kansas. Bye-bye, Michigan State. Bye-bye, UConn. We talk about the offense being the buzzkill for Kansas,

14:32and there it is right there. Now, I will say this mention, if you want some hope for Kansas, one would be the exception to the rule part that we opened the show about that, you know, they have the Darren Pearson, they too. That seven seed UConn team, you might have guessed, is the exception to the rule here, right? I said 23 of the last 24 champions had a top 21 in adjusted offensive efficiency. That one exception was 2014 UConn, who, what was their offensive ranking entering the tournament, you ask? 57th. What is Kansas's offensive ranking entering the tournament this year? 57th. So, if you want to play off of the, that one as the parameter, Kansas is still alive based on the offense, but that would keep a lot of other teams alive as well. So, if we're going to top 21, gone are all those teams. Again, St. John's, Kansas, Michigan State UConn, gets rid of Gonzaga in the West, gets rid of Tennessee and Virginia in the Midwest, and then it gets rid of St. Mary's and Nebraska out of the South. Now, we're really starting to narrow teams down for who can win a national title.

15:3323 of the last 24 champions were top 37 on adjusted defensive efficiency. Might be wondering who's the exception to the rule there. Oddly enough, it was actually that Baylor team in the COVID year. They were 44th and three in the tournament, but I think the reason I want to go with 37 on this one instead of them as the ally of 44 is because if you remember, they were like a top 25 defense, and then they had like COVID go through the team. They finished the year, losing a couple games. They lost in Allenfield House to Kansas, and the defense kind of fell off a little bit. By the time they got back to the tournament, they were playing back to their normal defense. Like, if not for the COVID stuff going on, they would have been a top 37 defense. So, this gets rid of BYU, Wisconsin, and Arkansas all out of the West. It also gets rid of Alabama out of the Midwest. Nobody gone from the East or South. Here's an interesting one. Every team was one that titles since 2001 has advanced to their conference semi-finals or further in their conference tournament. So, at least made the conference semis. Some lost there, some lost in the championship,

16:34some won the championship, but you at least had to make the conference semi-finals. In the East, that gets rid of Louisville, who lost in the quarterfinal round in the Midwest. That gets rid of Texas Tech, who lost Iowa State in the quarterfinal round. And then in the South, that gets rid of Illinois, who lost in the quarterfinal round. Okay, so who does that leave alive at this point in time? Here's the teams who can win a title by that. And I'm actually going to narrow it down even more if you want to, but if you just want to go off this base list, those are the initial numbers. Pick one of these teams who won the title. Duke, Arizona, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa State, Florida, Houston, and Vanderbilt, kind of an interesting one that squeaked in there. I used to have a filter of coaches who had never made an elite eight before. Like, just never won the title, except for Yukon coaches. That was the one exception to the rule. Dan Hurley did it. Kevin Oli did it, like, the only coaches who basically were winning titles.

17:35It was either like, first year coach, Yukon coach, or you had made an elite eight previously. But Florida, with Todd Golden, and did that run last year. So I decided not to bring it in this year. Hypothetically, if you did want to say, you know, the larger sample size is that's the case. That would get rid of Vanderbilt. That would get rid of Iowa State. And that would get rid of actually Arizona with Tommy Lloyd. But I think last year, it's a different era. So I'm not going to include that one. So again, Duke, Arizona, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa State, Florida, Houston, and Vanderbilt. Now, if you want a more narrowed-down list, if you want to go with that and pick one of those teams, I think that's a good place to be. If you want to even more narrowed-down list with recent trends, what has been happening recently in college basketball? Well, the last eight national champions were top six entering the NCAA tournament. So recently, it's consistently been one of the elite teams. Last eight champs, top six. Last eight champions also have had better offences than defenses.

18:38I don't know that I'm going to use that one from the standpoint of like, a lot of times it's like, oh, well, we were, you know, fifth in offense and 25th on defense. What if you're like the, like, Duke, for instance, Duke is the fourth best offense in the second best defense. I'm not going to penalize them for being top five at both. You know, so I'm not going to use that one. But I will use the top six to the last eight champs. The last 10 champions had top six offences. And then nine of the last 10 champions were one or two seeds. So if we take all those, you would eliminate Purdue for not being top six overall in Kenpon. You would eliminate Michigan, Iowa State, Florida, and Houston for not having top six offences. And you would eliminate Vanderbilt for their seed. And so if you want to use that more relaxed version that I mentioned, totally fine. If you want to use the Titan version, you got two teams. Duke or Arizona, which one do you think wins the title? And the thing about this that makes it crazy is, like, I remember doing this in 2022. I think we had three teams who qualified.

19:39I can't remember the 13 for the life of me. But I do know, I think you can Zaga might have been one of, it was like Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Kansas. Kansas won the title. So you filtered it down and had the right pool. But if you would have picked all those teams deep, Gonzaga lost in the sweet 16s, that was kind of a middle result. Kentucky lost in the first round of St. Peters. So the thing about this is there's no guarantee this team could lose in an early round. But if it helps us find the title winner and gives you a better chance of picking the title winner, that's how you could potentially win your bracket pool. And like I said, if you want to use some exceptions for Kansas, you can sneak them into this conversation. I was going to get to my final four picks, what I'm doing with my bracket. You might not care, and I don't blame it, because I'm probably not going to do very well. But we'll get to that next. Today's episode of the show is brought to you by Game Time. The biggest stretch of college basketball season is here. Buzzerbeaters, bracket busters, and those unforgettable moments that everyone's talking about the next day. Being there live for something like that, that is bucket list stuff.

20:39The hard part is always getting tickets. Long Q's, price jumps to check out surprise fees, especially too, if you're traveling to one of these different arenas for postseason game, that you don't exactly know how the seats are. You don't know the arena. The beauty of Game Time, you see the seat image on the app before you buy them. So you know what you're getting into. You know if you're getting good tickets or not. You know if you're going to have a good view or not. It's no stress, no guesswork, just a smooth experience from start to finish. That's exactly what you want during the busiest part of the season. Plus, at Game Time, you can get same day tickets. So it's like if you're traveling down, we'll come on the car ride to wherever you're going, right? Take the guesswork out of mind, call his basketball, think it's the Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, use code Locked On for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply again, create an account, and we can go to Locked On, L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N for $20 off. Download the Game Time app today. Thanks so much for joining us today on the show. We are also brought to you by five hour energy. And welcome to the five hour energy flavor draft with 18 different flavors to choose from, including new options like confetti craze,

21:41fruity rainbow, or cotton candy. There's something for everyone. The board is set, flavors are ready. I got my number one pick for the five hour energy flavor graph draft. I don't think I've brought up grape yet as a candidate for number one. I don't know if it would be my number one, but like on the right day, it could be my number one. It's the Concord grape flavor, similar to grape juice, or candy, soft-rounded sweetness, smooth, almost syrup-like, fruit profile, consistent, straightforward taste. It's that classic purple candy style finish with the grape, and five hour energy shots give you a boost with zero sugar. Find your new favorite flavor of five hour energy shots available online at fivearr energy dot com or on Amazon. All right, so here's my bracket. So out of the east, I have, I'm going to go with what my numbers are saying here. I guess basically right. Play the odds. I have Duke taking down Michigan State in the elite eight. Then I have Arizona taking down Purdue in the elite eight. And honestly, I will say the bottom of the west region, the bottom half of the west region,

22:41I think is the hardest to pick. If a Cinderella comes from somewhere, I would not be surprised if it's there. I did not feel good picking Purdue to the elite eight. I could see Purdue losing early if I'm being completely honest, but it was almost out of default. It was like, I don't feel as great about this. Gonzaga team is a lot of normal Gonzaga teams. And it's like, I don't feel great about like the 7Z. They're playing in St. Louis against Missouri. Like, so I just kind of defaulted to having Purdue there. I do not feel good about that one at all, but I do have Arizona out of the west over them. Then I have Michigan taking on Iowa State in the Midwest. I do have Iowa State pulling up the upset there. And then facing Arizona in what would be, I mean, I'd be all for that. That was an unbelievable big 12 semi final game. I'll take that again in the final four. And then I have, this is where I got a little bit different. In the south, I have Vanderbilt taking on Illinois in the elite eight. And then I have Illinois coming through over Vanderbilt. And what would be a very high scoring fun game as well. Then I have Duke beating Illinois. I have Arizona beating Iowa State. I have Duke over Arizona for the national title.

23:43The deepest I have a non top four seed is Vanderbilt. As a five, they are in the elite eight for me. The deepest I have a double digit seed. I have the winner of the playing game, NC State or Texas. Usually one of them advances at least around. I have them beating BYU. And then I actually have them upsetting. Gonzaga and making it to the sweet 16. I think I saw a stat though over the last two NCAA tournaments, which is a relatively small sample size. I think it's like the only mid major who has made a run outside of the, I forget if it's sweet 16 or lead eight is San Diego State, who is like what a five seed or something. And usually is one of the better mid majors. And that the only double digit seeds that have made a second weekend the last two years are like power conference teams. So I think NIL has probably kind of killed the Cinderella. We can still get upsets. We can still have a 13 beat a four or 12 beat a five and 11 beat a six. But it's kind of killed the deep, deep run team. I don't know, maybe that's a small sample size thing. And we're reading too much into what's happened lately. And all of a sudden one team this year who's a 12 seed that makes the elite eight

24:45that's a Cinderella and it changes our tune. And I wouldn't hate if that happened as long as it's not at the best of Kansas, obviously. But yeah, so those are going to go and everywhere wrong. Fade accordingly. All right, thanks so much for joining us on this episode of the show. We'll be back at you. We're going to get an early preview coming out on Wednesday to really let you marinate what's going to happen or what to expect between Kansas and Cal Baptist. We'll have that on tomorrow's show right here on Locked on Jayhawks.