Where Are the Experts Drafting My Favorite Fantasy Targets?

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1:06And away we go, ladies and gentlemen, it's old man squad. Van is a basketball representative. I am a band-dual and the band-dual sports book and today we're talking about an industry expert Mach 1 more time. I'm Dan Bassbriss, follow on Twitter at Dan Bassbriss. It's a pretty easy thing to do. You see the name on your screen? You go type that in. You follow it. Hit that subscribe button as you're settling it as well. We're also going to be looking at where my favorite targets went in this industry expert Mach was a 14-teamer. And I've already told you guys I mailed it in after the ninth round. So I only even clipped the board from the first 10. But I thought it might be kind of fun to see where the experts were taking the guys that I'm eyeballing in the draft and what that actually means for what you guys might be able to do as we proceed forward. Why is this important? Let's do the why quickly before we actually jump in and look at a name. Like I can tell you, hey, here's where here's what happened at, you know, 5, 6, 7.

2:08And this is what I'm expecting to happen there. But I think the why is as important, if not more important than actually looking at the numbers because numerically, this is just one draft. This is, you know, it's there the smallest of all sample sizes. But the why is really important because a lot of the mocks that you've seen me cover on this podcast, especially lately, have been Yahoo. So, you know, I'm going to start a speed round mocks where I put the link on Twitter four minutes before it starts and then 10 of the 12 teams in that mock draft are people that listen to this podcast or follow my stuff on social media. So we have a little bit of a group think thing going on in those. This is very much not that. I don't know how many of these experts actually listen to what I say. I'm assuming zero. The smart guess would be zero because we all have so much stuff on our plates. We can't be spending half the day listening to what everybody else is talking about. I would also argue, by the way, that it actually hurts me.

3:13I don't know how it works for all of you guys or the other industry analysts in this in this mock draft, but it hurts me to listen to what everybody else is saying because then I end up with 55 thoughts in my head and I can't sort them anymore. Maybe I could when I was younger, but I sure as crap can't do it now. So the why is important we have 14 industry experts in this mock draft each of them with their own unique individual opinions on every player that's rolling through this thing. Finally, this is a mock that isn't just a sort of pile up of old man squad type of drafters. And I think it actually gives a better idea of where guys might go when you drop into your draft as opposed to again the mocks that I've been doing with with followers. So let's start at the top. There are a few places that I want to look at the very beginning and then we'll look at individual players at that point. And the first juncture I want to look at is that five through 12 ish zone, which as we've seen in a lot of the mock drafts and just across the landscape, typically cade cunning him is going at five and then spider men meme guys going although yeah, okay, that's fair.

4:30Spider-Man meme guys are going six through whatever and for those that are listening or watching the show for the first time, the guys that I'm referring to as the spider man meme where the three spider men are all pointing at each other is Tyres maxi Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray actually kind of falls in there as well, although he's a little bit farther down the board. Five and six in head to head leagues, at least, should be treated as the punt spots for cade because number one, Kate has actually not been the pillar of health throughout his young career so far and some of that was tank years and some of it was actual else stuff, but we can get to 70 call that a small victory.

5:42Cade should actually be treated as more of an eight cat type of player. Obviously you can still win with cade cunning him in nine cat is turnovers are bad, but other guys in the first round have kind of bad turnovers as well, Yoke itch being a big one, Luca being a big one, but I will point out fewer players in the first round are high turnover guys than in seasons past James Harden is not a first round or any more trade young is not being treated as a first round or any more two of the biggest turnover guys are in the second and third rounds. So the first round, Yoke itch is the big one, don'tch itch is big one, Cade is a big one, the rest of the first round are sub three turnover per game guys. For the most part, I think maybe we might squeak like y'all this will probably get pretty close to that mark, but the eight cat nine cat split guys it's no longer half of the first round it's a quarter of it. So that actually makes winning turnovers with Cade a little bit harder since the other teams in your league most of them are going to have a pretty good head start on you in that, but it's also very easy to to bounce back from that one, you know take a slightly lower turnover guy in the second or third round when other teams take a high one and hopefully you split those guys between five or six different teams instead of all ending up on one that's where things can get a little bit convoluted this year is.

7:05The donch itch team could end up with tray young a Yoke itch team could end up with tray young a donch itch or a Yoke itch team or a Cade team frankly could end up with tray young and James Harden and then every turnover guy is on one team. Except for let's say not Cade in this instance let's say they look at team ended up going tray young James Harden in a hard punt okay now your Cade turnovers you're going to beat that team but you're going to be. But you're in a bad position to beat the other teams because everybody else is starting with a bunch of two and change guys again random fluctuations all that good stuff. Cade's negative turnovers is not nearly as large as Janice's negative and free throws but I think that Yana should probably go next and I think you should treat that five and that six zone as the opportunities to flip the board it's less in my opinion about wanting to punt. And more about the fact that all of the guys we talked about this all of the guys that come after those dudes the Spider-Man crew are all going to be drafting the same general idea of a fantasy team for the next couple of rounds you're not going to get the guys you want in the second round.

8:21You're not going to get. Reaves and Jamal and Durant and whatever if you have the fifth pick coming back it's just too far away. So you've got to figure out some other plan of attack because the next chunk of guys in my opinion at least has a pretty good drop off. Unless you flip the board Alperin Shengoon flip the board Josh Gidey tray young James Harden flip the board. Find the bad free throw guys find the bad turnover guys find the bad field goal guys if you wanted to go down that path you don't have to with Cade but he's one of the lower ones in the first round with Maxi and Tatum basically flip the board. That's my goal here in this particular draft the experts did not choose to flip the board. Either because they don't agree with me or they felt like in a 14 team or flipping the board was going to be tough because some of those guys just wouldn't get back to them anyway. There's a couple of things that could be at play here.

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10:29The battle is closed and for only 599 even regular juice can afford it. Like that guy. You get that big old burger. Yes. The whole Angus Maximus only 599 is cold senior. Available for a limited time to participate in restaurants tax on included not valid for use within a combo or in combination with any other offer or discount. I'm pretty confident talking into a mic. Hey, I'm doing it right now. But home projects. I second guess everything. Is that noise normal? Is that water damage? Who do I even call? That's where thumbtack comes in just upload a photo or voice note and it uses AI powered search to match you with the right top rated local pro. So instead of guessing you get clarity and can hire with confidence for your next home project try thumbtack higher the right pro today. And that's not to say that there's anything right or wrong with disagreeing with me. I just thought it was interesting that Yannis didn't go until nine and Kate actually went six pop he went maxi at five.

11:32Then it went K8 at six, Tatum at seven flag at eight, Yannis at nine and at 10 Barnes at 11, King he was starting his little his four point. And then I took Haliburton at 12. With the 12 pick I had no shot to flip the board, unless I did a different kind of board flip, which was the Haliburton probably more of a punt points kind of build. But again, you know me, I'm ultimately going to make a little bit of a roto squad regardless. Next thing I want to look at here is what happened through the sort of that after that 17 general area, although a couple of guys went earlier than expected cat when it 13. And Donna Mitchell got pushed all the way down to 16 in this draft. But and then I'm in Thompson going at 18 for the King he build and Anthony Davis going at 19 and Kauai going at 20 allowed Thunder Dan to get Austin Reeves at 21, which was very surprising, but there's almost no way that he falls past that marker.

12:32Because folks are not taking Steph Curry or Lamello over Austin Reeves. I don't think I don't think folks are taking Chad Holmgren. The only other guy that might have squeaked in there would have been Alperin Shengoon on the Yannis team, because that would have been at 20 and he was still on the board. So also notable because in a lot of the old man squad populated drafts we've been doing Reeves has been gone by 17 and 18 is the spot where everything gets wonky. It's probably cat. That's probably the play there in my universe, but it's not. It's not really set in stone. And if you look at the way I've started to construct my buckets, I don't think that I can get those on the screen really fast after you get through that's 12 30 morning 15 16 70. Yeah, Steph cat, chat, those guys are the nine cat dudes in the next chunk. But you've also got the board flip guys and this is part of why I was talking about the first round. Lamello ball punt field goal and or turnover guy for the second round. Trey young punt turnover and or field goal guy for the second round.

13:39Shengoon punt free throw guy for the second round. There's something to be said because most seasons and it's a first and second round thing and when I redo the punting and pairing guide which I'll redo that once Yahoo, I don't want to do another one when the board is not adjusted. Oh, wait a minute. Did the board get adjusted? Is today the day today's the day. Oh, joy. The Yahoo board change today. That's exciting. That's going to change the way I plan out the rest of my pod cast. But okay, so we'll get this going again sooner than then later. The new punting and pairing guide is going to have something to do with the fact that these like second round guys have been typically going much later than that and some of these dudes are moving up a little bit. You can see Trey young action the new board is at 19 Josh kitty went all the way to 18 on the new board. Oh, there's a lot going on here. This was a bigger. This was a bigger jump for a lot of dudes.

14:40Not the top of the board though. Top of the board is almost completely unchanged. But the rest of it isn't. Oh, man, this makes my day a lot more fun to minus the bonus way up the board. That's not the point of today's show. Let refocus, Pespers. You discovered the board changed and now you're all excited. Okay. So the first two rounds is where it's more about strategy and what everybody else is doing after that. I'm mostly curious about where some of my favorite guys are going. This is a third round reversal draft. So let's just like peel through and pause at individual spots and we'll go until we're done. I think the show should only be about 25 minutes. But let's see. Guys that I'm interested in after Austin Reeves who fell all the way to 21 bouncing now into the second round. And I'm not looking at non targets because I guess we could go both ways. Trey Murphy went at 33. I think people are down on him because Dejante Marie's back. But I'm very much not.

15:43You can try to figure out if there was a pattern to all of it. Because Trey again was number 11 last year. You know, how did he do second half versus first half? How did he do in scenarios where Dejante was there versus where he was at second half of the season. He was number 19. Field goal percent was lower. That was the big reason why he shall 44% from the field. He was number 23. Down the stretch, which was basically alongside Dejante Marie. And I think that's pretty repeatable for Trey. He was at 19 points, five and a half rebounds, three and a half assists, one and a half steals 3.33s and good percentages usage was a little bit lower 21.2 versus the whole season where he was a 22 and a half. It'll bring him down just a little bit. But I still think he's a second rounder. Trey Murphy. And that's why I'm still so comfortable taking him in the third. Again, we're just let's just go through some of these guys and where they're going here versus where we've seen them go in the old man squad kind of mocks.

16:45Larie market went at 39 that that pretty much runs. And that's actually a little bit later. I've seen him go in the third in a lot of old man squad style drafts and and he's another one where. Larie is an interesting one because people really don't like the Lowry market and pick in my mentions. But I know a lot of you guys do. He was number eight last year with a usage rate of 27% and everybody's like, oh, Darren Peterson's just going to have the ball. No, he's a rookie. He's not the starting point guard on this team. County George is Peterson's going to have to find his spots. I'm not even certain he starts. They still got to figure out if they want a spaley in there or if they run big and go use of Nurgish and both those guys. I think he probably does, but it's the I don't think it's set in stone. Mark and I mean, there'll be a little bit of a tapering here, but he's still the most efficient scorer on the squad. With the free throw field goal floor spacing combination. He's not going to be the guy that orchestrates things that's still key on day George, but Mark and it's going to get a crap ton of opportunity.

17:51He's still a second rounder in my eyes too. And I don't think the jazz are tanking this year. What everybody's so afraid of they're going to try to win. They clearly are trying to win. They traded for JJ J. They got their high picks and not to do that anymore. Kyrie went at 41 in this mock draft going through the Dan Bespritz. Here's guys that I like and where they went. That's perfectly reasonable. That's where I've seen him go and almost every draft and nothing really changed here. So that's good to know. Now we're done with reversal on. Yekko Kong will win at 44. So Steve kind of priced him out a little bit. That's a dude that I'm looking to grab in the fifth round of a normal draft. So somewhere typically in the 50s would be my hope. Derek White went at 46. He's not a target per se, but if he drops into the middle of the fourth round, I'm good with it. Dejante Murray went at 47. That's one of the guys that I'm really interested in. And now I'm actually kind of interested in where Yahoo put him in their next board.

18:51Look that up while we're talking about I'm sure he'll be earlier, right? Where are you? Where are you Murray? No, he's not there. Where's Dejante? Did he get pushed way up the board or did he get pushed down the board? Wow, he got pushed down. That's surprising. 64 later. Oh, I'm pleased with this. I am interested in this. Well, he went at 47 in this mock draft. So beware. But the fact that he's pre ranked at 64 pushes him down the board just a little bit. And now that means that when you get into a public draft, you might be able to sneak him out a little bit later. Here's why I love Dejante Murray. If you guys haven't heard this explanation already and most of you have Murray in just 27 and change minutes last year coming back from injury, he was number 63 and 9 cat and about two and a half rounds better than that and eight cat. 17 points, five and a half rebound, six and a half assists in 27 and a half minutes. That's crazy. 1.6 steals.

19:57He's probably going to play 32, 33 minutes a game this season, maybe more even. And you're like, that's, that's another 20%. Could he really approach eight assists per game? Probably 19, six and a half and eight with 1 point call it seven three pointers and almost two steals per game. And I think that's one thing that I think Dejante Murray could be a second round eight cat guy. Maybe one round later in nine, something like that. But even if you go two rounds later than that, you're still talking about 40s. So I honestly don't mind him going in the 40s. I would take him there if I had to. If you have pick 47 and a 12th teamer, that means that you'll have another pick just like three later. So you probably push him off, but you don't have to. And then the day that was one of 53. That's part of the King. He build. I think that's probably around where he'd go anyway. So that's fine. O.G. Annoble at 55 is another one of the guys that I'm interested in in the late fifth round. So that's around where he should be going.

21:01Tyler hero at 56 is also guy I kind of like modest, Pasellus at 57. So that trend continues. And I'm here to tell you, it's probably a little bit too early. I like Pasellus. I really liked him at his previous pre rank. Although now I got to figure out did they move him up the board. Yeah, he's not that much only to 80. Wow, man with all the hype. That's really surprising that he didn't get pushed farther up. O.G. by the way went down. Kill aware went way up to 69. Oh, we're going to have a show and a half to do on this stuff. Oh boy, and a lot. I mean, we're going to have to redo a lot of our board other than the beginning. But even the second round got jumbled first round is about the only thing that looks about the same board over board. Honestly, goodness guys. I'm in the middle of this show and thinking I really would rather be doing the pre rank adjustment show. But we'll get to all that stuff. Don't worry. And then we'll crank through some mocks because those are going to look a little different to once the board kind of resettles here.

22:02Pizzellus last season in the second half of the year was right around number 50. 46 the final two months with a usage rate of 25% and two and a half combined defensive stats. I don't know if he can go much higher than that. So 50s is fine. I just think there's a lot of potential pricing out knowing on with him. We'll see. I mean, maybe you get lucky and you drop into a public draft. And he falls into the 60s and 70s. I just haven't seen that happen very much lately. Let's kind of lightening around our way through the rest of this thing. I don't want today's show to be a long one, especially considering there's a lot of me repeating myself going over. I think he'll always had a walker fell all the way to 64. I think that's a really good spot. If he were to get there, I don't know that he will in a regular draft, but it's good to see that happening because that would mean that we could almost get him in the seventh round. Call out where when it's 66. That's a lot closer. You can see to where his new pre-rank is. You pretty much have to get him in the sixth round waiting on the seventh and you're probably not going to get it.

23:08My boy Paul George when it's 67. He looks like he moved it down in the ranks one. So hopefully he won't push any earlier. I mean, I'm still hoping I can get him in the seventh round, but I don't know for sure. Ryan Rollins is somebody I'm slowly falling in love with and he's going right at 70 and almost every draft. So that's fine. Emmanuel quickly went at 74. I like quickly a lot, but I like him a lot of 90. I don't think I want him at 74. Microporter junior fell all the way to 75. That's one that I'm very interested in in the 60s 75 is a huge steal. If he's a zoo bot says an interesting one. I still haven't made up my mind on him, but he's at 77 here. Caleb Wilson went at 79. And then a Sar Thompson King he's always going to go a little early on those dudes. So that's kind of clouding the data a little bit. I took Norman power. So we can't I we can't do anything with that one. I took Ty Jerome at 87. So he was still on the board there. Also that's also very interesting. I think maybe I'm higher on Jerome than many because I've been willing to take him in the early 80s and it seems like perhaps.

24:17I don't know if I'm reading this right, but who knows if he would have gone another two or three spots and maybe gone into the 90s. Every game day you show up for your team now it's your time. Ask your prescriber about we gov some maglettide injection 2.4 milligrams a G L P1 call 1 8 3 3 4 we gov or visit we gov.com to view the medication guide and to learn more about we gov. Why wait? We go need. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. Hi, I'm Sean Evans from Hot Ones and I want to tell you about YouTube Premium. It has offline downloads so you can watch without Wi-Fi, background play, so you can lock your phone and it still plays baby. Oh, and it is completely ad-free. Yes, I said it, ad-free. Try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium.

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26:21Taxi not included. Not valid for use within a combo or in combination with any other offer or discount. Jared Allen went at 92 in this draft. That was also kind of surprising when you think about some of the guys that went a little bit sooner. He's a very safe play at that juncture. The reason I'm bringing all this up, I'm skipping over a lot of names obviously. But the reason I'm talking about some of these guys, these are the ones that I've brought up as dudes that I think are pretty good. As dudes that I think are possible values. And then we get into these old man squad populated drafts and everybody's just climbing over each other to get a guy. But this brings us to a really important point that I want to loop back around to. And I'm when I'm done sort of pointing out the key guys. There's only a few left here. The point that I want to loop back to is. When I talk about how much I like a guy. A lot of that is I like them where they're being drafted at ADP. I don't say the words at ADP all the time. But I hope that at this point, I'm implying it you're inferring it. This is an inferred word.

27:22An inferred two word. Hey, oh. So if I say, oh, I really like Jared Allen. I don't want to take him at 55. I'll take him where he's at. Say, oh, I really like Dejante Murray. And I like him up to whatever. So there's certain guys I'm saying, okay, y'all reach a little bit on this dude. Marking in Dejante Murray. Those are a couple of them. Jared Allen is not one of those guys. And then, okay, well, if guys are all, if we're all climbing over one another for a particular dude, you're going to wipe out all the spots that I like a man. You're going to take him too early. I was interested to see Freddie Van Vliet go at 96. If only because, let's look, I've been a big Freddie Van Vliet proponent for a long time. But I hate to, I hate to do this because I'm pooing on one of my picks from a year ago. But Freddie Van Vliet was number 75 before he got hurt two seasons back.

28:23He only played in 60 games. And that was in 35 minutes a night with a horrible shooting. I don't think there's even close to 35 minutes of playing time for Van Vliet on the rockets this year. I think we're looking at a guy who's probably going to get in the mid to high 20s 27 28 something like that. I don't think he's inside the top 100. Put field goal, he might be, but he's also very old and coming off such a huge injury. It's unusual for me to pass on an old man like that, but I'm, I'm a little down on Freddie this year. So this is pretty early to see him go. Harden Stein went at 98. That's pretty typical. Other guys that I mean, look at that. John Collins went pretty early at 105. I think he's going to be in the 80 to 100 range. So try not to price him out too much. Came in Moloatch, when it 106, I worry a bit that that might be getting out over our skis. He's definitely going to play a ton more with Mark Williams out for maybe the season.

29:24But I don't think the sons are just going to turn the whole interior over to him with as little as they seemingly trusted him last year. It would be a huge jump forward to say, all right, you're just playing 28 minutes of game because they seemed more than willing to play also we could borrow over Moloatch last season. And I guess they could run small a little bit, not much. That would be what like a like a Miles bridges center. How tall is he would high Smith? No, he's only 6.6. That wouldn't do it. I'm going to need some center out there. So obviously, yes, a lot more for Moloatch now than pre Mark Williams injury. But I do think that it's not as locked in as we'd all love it to be. Keegan Murray, I took it 110. So again, we didn't get data there. Namiash Keta felt all the way to 115 to me. I think he's still inside the top 100 this season.

30:29Kevin Porter Jr. had 119 Thunder Dan. Nice pick there. That's a pretty long way for him to fall. That's a great grab if you can get him in the 10th round of a regular league. Jabari Smith Jr. Solid, you know, 90 range guy that went at 121. And that's probably about it for the targets. Mamo went at 132. I mean, he's probably a 25 to 27 minute guy. It's a swing. I'll admit. I don't want to take Mamo earlier than 120. That's the big issue for me for him right now. I don't think his minutes are guaranteed. He's seemingly the leader in the clubhouse to get those power forward minutes. But the Lakers could run smaller with a LaRavia or a Zaire Williams kind of rangey wingy type of thing. If they because those guys will play better defense than Mamo. But neither one of them can do the screen setting and rolling and that kind of thing that that's on. And so the Lakers will mix and match a little bit. And that's why I'm not over the moon about Mamo.

31:33But yeah, 132 you might as well. So this is interesting. This draft is fun. It was cool to get experts together. So you got a bunch of different opinions on guys. But those were some of the targets that I've talked about over this the last month on this show. And generally with the exception, basically of Dejante Murray and Kila where most of the guys that I've talked up during the preseason fell to ADP or even a tiny bit later than ADP. That's great news. That confirms what sometimes I'm hoping and I know you guys like dance stop moaning stop whining stop whining. So good old Arnold Schwarzenegger quote stop it stop whining. Uh, you guys all need to go watch kindergarten cop immediately. And then listen to the the Arnold soundboard crank calls from the late 90s, early 2000s. And then you'll be in my head, which is a scary place to be.

32:36But you guys have told me to stop whining when I'm doing these shows with you know the mock drafts with all the old man squad folks. And I'm like, wow, yeah, I got I went around and a half earlier than he's gone and every other draft. This expert draft pretty much confirms my whining was accurate. Because I'm in there going, oh, come on Paul George, like you took him at 59. That's not going to happen. In a real draft. These targets of my norm, tied Jerome, Jared Allen, and not really a target, I guess even as much as Austin Reeves. These guys are not going as early when you get an actual cross section of the fantasy analyst or just player landscape where we're not all picking from the same buckets. And this was really cool to see. I will. Well, I think I think Kingie might have posted the results of this breakout mock somewhere. So I don't know that I'm necessarily going to do it, but I appreciate you guys hanging out and listening to how everybody else did and how I did and let me turn this into a couple of shows.

33:41I completely forgot to do promo on today's podcast, which is just the absolute dumbest thing on earth. But I'll say this. Please subscribe on your way out and please consider a 99 cent donation by becoming a member of us here at Old Man Squad. I'll answer your questions very quickly. You two member and you post on a show. Otherwise, yeah, that's that's what you get, but it's 99 cents. So wouldn't you pay 99 cents to get your questions answered quickly? I think maybe shout out to fan tracks dot com slash Old Man Squad. If you're going to sign up over there, make sure to use that link. The Google sheet link is in the show description that has all of my stuff in there. Fandual and the Fandual Sports Book are presenting sponsors on the show, but I forgot to give you one of the lines. So apologies to them. That's probably as much as we've got time for at the end of the program. Appreciate you guys hanging out with us here. This was the where are my favorites going in an industry mock episode of Old Man Squad fantasy basketball. We're going to get into the my guys episodes. I've started to get some analyst episodes lined up. Those will be coming soon.

34:41And as I just saw mid show Yahoo has adjusted their board. So it's time to redo a bunch of hours. I both love and hate that part of this run up to the fantasy season, but it does give me a whole lot of shows to do again. Alright, I'm Dan at the end best persona Twitter. I'll see you guys soon. So long for now. Pro football is back. Trade your predictions on Calci America's number one prediction market platform. India is currently trading at 28% to upset Kansas City, meaning a $100 trade pays out $350 if they win. Download Calci, use cofal to get $25 when you trade $25. KALSHI. Calci trade on anything. 18 plus only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. The then contract trading of those risk and being upbeat suitable for all investors.

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