What Will Cason Wallace's NEXT CONTRACT LOOK LIKE?

0:00This is the Lockdown Podcast Network celebrating 10 years of your team every day. Thank you for making Lockdown your first listen every day. For your second listen, find the Lockdown NBA Podcast where there's no offseason. West Matt and Hayes keep you up to date on contract negotiations, rumors and everything you need to be the most informed NBA fan. Find Lockdown NBA on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Today's Lockdown Thunder Podcast. What will case in Wallace's contract look like on this next extension and why you shouldn't necessarily expect it to get done this offseason? You are Lockdown Thunder, your daily Oklahoma City Thunder Podcast.

1:01Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Let's get it going on the Lockdown Thunder Podcast on the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your teams every day I am your host. Remember beat writer for Thunder on Si.com, Ryle and Stiles follow me on Twitter at Ryle and underscore Stiles on the day show. We're diving into the biggest question left out there for O.K.C. No, not who the 15th man will be on this roster, but what's going to happen with case in Wallace? Of course case in Wallace, fantastic young player for the Thunder. Ready to make a big impact this year in his age 22 season. Former first round pick obviously in that trade from Dallas where he's the top 10 pick in 2023. But whenever you look at case in Wallace, this is a player who is due for the contract extension. We'll hit Richard for the agency next season if one extension is not agreed to this offseason. And that's left everybody wondering what is that going to look like?

2:03And as this question has continued to churn throughout the offseason, Zach Low brought it up on his show that he asked 10 to 15 front office members to rank the case in Wallace, Brendan Przemski and Anthony Black, next contract. And obviously case in was a runaway. But his guess, Zach Low's guess for the annual salary would be 25 on the low end, 33 on the high end, in terms of a million dollars per year. And I think that's an accurate range, but it also just goes to show you the wide range that is out there for case in Wallace. Now, 33 million dollars a year on the high end. It'd be curious how he landed there and of the front office members that he talked to, who kind of pitched that because there's a difference whenever you're talking to people like that, of them just throwing something out there versus saying that like, oh, they know a team or they are a team who would have the appetite to do that.

3:03If it's just thrown out, they're like, what if somebody gave him a huge deal to kind of lure him away from O.K.C. to force O.K.C. to try to match him or to just get a good young player. That's just speaking all on hypotheticals of, yeah, anything could happen. This guy could fall tomorrow also. 25 million dollars a year is what we've heard on this show from Keith Smith, from Bobby Marx, is like more of the range for case in Wallace. I mean, this is a guy who's never averaged 10 points per game. This is a guy who is still trying to come into his own of his own role. And, you know, it doesn't take away from the winning impact he's made in this team. It doesn't take away from the fact that he was pivotal in winning a championship in pivotal last year and competing for another one whenever he shot 50% on five attempts a night. They get syn Antonio and it was awesome from three the whole playoff run. But the reality is, on top of never averaging 10 points per game, he shot 42% as Ricky year and then went down to 35% from the three the last two years. He's got to get that number up and he's got to get that volume up.

4:04And you think that he will with an expanded role, whether that be from a volume of minutes expansion, which I think is assured to happen or whether it be from him starting more games, which could happen. And I think it's projected to happen this year. Either way, that gets got to come from the three point line on top of the fact that he's one of the best defenders in the entire NBA. This is a guy who's not a defensive member, a guy who let the league in steals and a guy who I think projects to do that same thing again this year. I think he projects to lead the league in steals this year and is going to be on the audience of team again this year whether he leads the league in steals or not. So it's like that's a really great player. And the interesting part about this is like the question that we're getting to today is like why hasn't a case in deal been done yet. And I think that there's just incentive on both sides to take this thing to next summer. Now look, the extension can still happen in the next month before the season gets ramped up, but everything they still have time before the deadline to extend case and walless. But I think that part of the reason why it's been slow playing and slowly moving along what feels that way for the audience is that if your case in this camp,

5:11you know that you have a certain degree of life rich. What have we been saying the whole summer since they've started to make these moves of trading, Lou of trading, Wiggins of trading Joe, whatever I say, a heart and stand is up for a contract. What do we say? We've been saying it like there's no excuse you've got to keep case and walless, you've got to keep I say a heart and stand, you've got to keep these guys and holding the feet to the fire whenever they did save $240 million in luxury tax that these savings are only worth it. And they're only beneficial if it means that you do your job and you keep case and walless to where you have the leverage of no matter what happens this year, you know that Oklahoma City has to keep you know that Oklahoma City has to keep case and walless. There's no world out there in which it makes sense to lose case and walless if you're Oklahoma City. And so if you're as representation, you can gamble on the fact of, what if it becomes a better player? And I'm phrasing it that way because I know that in a lot of people's minds, the becoming a better player means an on-ball leap.

6:16But simply put, if he just polishes off his skillset that he already has, he's a better player. If he does shoot better from three on higher volume, he's a better player. Before you even talk about what he can do on the ball. And then if he does perform on the ball and shows more shot creation ability and shows more creation for other stability, well then that's an even bigger increase in payment. Which I think that even if a deal happens in the next few weeks, you would want the possibility of that becoming true to be baked into that extension. And so that's why case and side of things I think should be willing to wait to the summer. And this is all speculation, but I should be willing to wait until next off season. From Oklahoma City standpoint, you have a very expensive roster in the most restrictive CBA imaginable. And you're going to be paying a pretty penny on luxury tax next summer no matter what. Why Russian do it? Why not just see where the chips fall?

7:16Because what if he doesn't take a leap on the ball? You know, if you're never a day or you listen to this show as you should in the summertime every day, you know that I am very, very skeptical and skeptical might be an understatement of his ability to become an on ball player. And so why bake that into the cake of the extension if there's a good chance it doesn't happen? And what if he doesn't even take that high of a leap in the sense of his 3.0 percentage, the point volume, it's often some functionality in general? That changes things too. Because while you can, it's two separate things, right? While you have to and no matter what you need to bring case and wallets back, that's that's 100% guaranteed. And if they don't, and if they do not bring case and wallets back, and they make a move that is again purely based in the finances part of this and not in the basketball part of this, then you've already been told in this show, we will crush the team and everybody in Oklahoma City will crush the team, right? However, that doesn't give you car launch to just go out there and give him a contract that will be an albatross in the future and look horrific like the Christian Brown deal.

8:26Like the Christian Brown deal in retrospect is a bad, bad, bad contract. Oklahoma City is a chance to see out, plays out, then sign him to a good contract. And if he wants to try to get a contract somewhere else, they still have the right to match him. And the Thunder leverage to kind of counter case and leverage is look around at the NBA nowadays. And I know that you could say the MO for the Thunder and the MO for San Presby hasn't been to let guys say we're shook through agency. We live in a different world than we lived in just 30 seconds ago, right? This is going to be something that's unique because we've continuously seen under the CBA that are shifted for agency last until February until September. It goes a long time and there's not an appetite out there for teams to go take your players and shifted for agency. Look at Oklahoma City who did offer or should for agency sheet this summer to Spencer Jones. Okay, they offered Spencer Jones a contract and Spencer Jones signed that contract, but what was that contract under the current agreement what you've seen on teams like Oklahoma City has been willing to try to sign a receipt for agent.

9:35It is a fair deal. It is a very fair market value deal. It is the one that Denver would have signed to Peyton Watson, whether he had the OTC offer or not. It did not poke prod needle or hurt Denver to sign Peyton Watson to that number when it comes to his evaluation as a player when it comes to his worth as a player. Whereas in the past CBAs teams would needle, needle oppositions and sign guys to more than they were worth just to force you to match it and force you to be committed to that deal or take the player from you. So even whenever other teams do go after a shoot the three agents, it still stays in the same market value of who a player is and who the players become. Because no team can afford to do it otherwise. No team can afford to just max case and loss for the sake of max and case and loss and forcing OTC to match that deal or okay, we take on a max contract for case and that is a huge punishment in the CBA compared to in CBAs pass.

10:40So I think that the end of the day this road leads to case in his back in OTC and this road leads to it's about $25 million a year. And that's what we've been saying on the show since the summertime started. That's what we've been saying on the show with Seller cap experts and that's where I still think that this lands because there's been no new information to come out. So I know that we all want the resolution. We all want the answer right now. We all want to see how it's going to play out right now. But the bottom line remains there's been no new changes and the sentiment has not and should not change case and loss has to be an OTC no matter what after this year. It's just a matter of when you get it done and how you get it done and for how much money that you get it done. And now I know there's one last question about the case and Wallace extension. Will this hang over the team's head. I think that that's a silly question and I will tell you why coming up on today's locked on Thunder podcast.

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12:45And if you see a post purchase survey please mention you heard about it right here kozierth.com. This is Jake from Locked on. When the game's on the line the best no way to pass because the right assist can change everything. And off the court it's no different. That's where your state farm agent comes in whether it's protecting your car, your home or helping you prep for the unexpected. They'll upset you up with a game plan that works for you like a good neighbor state farm is there coverage options are selected by the customer availability and eligibility vary by state. We're back I'm a lock down Thunder podcast on like that podcast network your teams every day. I'm Roland South taking you through this off season for OKC including about this case and Wallace contract extension saga. Now the last question that would be had is OK well if you don't think that they're going to have an extension in the next month this is going to hang over this team's head. And look I understand that line of thinking I do but this is a very unique team and has proven to be that over the years has proven to be that even about this very topic.

13:54And now obviously we don't mean about case and Wallace specifically but about this situation because you look at last year. Before the season began I was sitting here telling you there's a good chance that this is ludorce last year in OKC. And there's question marks around what are they going to do with Lou and Ken rich and Isaiah heart and Stein. How are they going to figure it out as this team grows more expensive as extensions kick in for J. W. and Chet as you have you know these draft picks to come in and you still have to get resolution on guys like case. That was hanging over this team's head last year. And the difference to me is one it last year even though it was around and you knew that this was going to be a thing. It didn't pop up throughout the season you were they were asked about it a media day and Sam was asked about it for the year sure. But once the season began nobody was asking about it nobody asked about trading loot in the deadline and like all that kind of stuff with all of these guys are expiring deals. Do you move on from them like none of that happened a year ago and they still won a ton of games.

14:57And if they were healthy they might have gone back to the finals and won it. But they but even with the result that you got they still went seven games with with the San Antonio Spurs in the Western comments finals. So it's like that didn't distract them from a year ago and they were legitimate question. I mean obviously three three of them are gone like ludorce gone Wiggins is gone Joe was gone and I told you from the start of last year you can go back and check tapes. Go back to listen to the old lockdown thunder if you want to. I told you from the start of last year this is going to be for the last time that this group is together the 99% retention of the championship team is gone. That is the last time that that will happen for this entire era. There's going to be changes is going to be roster turnover moving forward and this is the last time that you have to go to battle with these guys. That was true. And again before the ball is tipped against Houston you knew that like this is a there's a strong strong strong chance that this is a little less season with the thunder as a franchise pillar as a guy who is representative of a massive turnaround and getting out of the rebuild and so massive in the championship run and everything else.

16:03And it didn't hang around this team it wasn't awkward there was nothing internally or externally about that team last year and there's a and there was legit uncertainty. With this to me there should be no uncertainty internally or externally. To me the end result is already figured out it's about what formula what equation what process what steps are going to and how they're going to occur you know. What's the word I'm looking for sequentially to get case and back in OKC on an extension whether it happens now or it happens next summer the end result is case and while this will play longer than just this year in OKC and that's the bottom line. And that's how it should be thought of that should be the standard that you hold this team to that that's what's going to happen that's how this should be thought of from a logistical standpoint from it from every single standpoint. To yeah pins on the paper yet inks not inks not drawing yet on the paper but you know that the pins going to hit the paper eventually.

17:10To that takes away some of the concern over this being something that bubbles up or clouds or hangs over their head they've been through this. They were went through it last year and that's not what stopped the steam from winning what stopped the steam from winning wasn't that being healthy. But they wanted every phase last year they swept their way to the west finals they won over 60 games again were the one seed again for the third year like that if this team. At any point goes through a bad spell it won't be because they're thinking about the counter extension of case and loss or a J Mitchell or of Jared McCain. You know that's not going to be something that like really truly hangs over their head. So it gives you another reason to be able and be comfortable with being able to wait being able to see what happens. And like if casein goes out there this year and he has especially point shooting percentage and he has high volume from three and he shows you better on ball ability then the price went up the price certainly went up.

18:13And what I think that we should avoid is retroactively grading this decision but so let's just say hypothetically that they don't come to an agreement which they still could they don't come to agreement this off season. Okay well I think that what's going to happen is we're going to retroactively do this stuff at the at the at the next summer agreement of see the thunder should have paid him back then because now look he's a 40% 3 point shooter he creates his own shots and creates for others and now they've had to pay him more than they would have. Or he doesn't do those things and the thunder you know gets a pay him 25 million dollars ish and it's like okay see casein like what if you could have got more money last year to me. What we know right now is everybody is aware of the stakes right and the thunder whatever deal if they would now flip the flip the high hypothetical if they were to agree to an extension from now until the start of the year. You would imagine that case in representation would be fighting to bake into that number the possibility that that lead happens right so you're not going to avoid paying extra for that potential lead whether you do it now or later.

19:24And I think that later would let you actually see it happen versus and I just see not not have to pay it when it doesn't happen then versus now whenever you're likely going to have to bake it into the cake and then the last thing on this is. You know we talk about a lot of people talk about the stuff as if it is a lot of knowns it's actually quite the opposite is a lot of unknowns you just size a heart and sign take a very team friendly deal. When we saw what Walker Kessler got we saw the market for centers we saw is a heart and sign B a top 10 center this league we saw is a heart and sign B a fantastic weapon against San Antonio. When the team played outside of game one. And he pay he took a little bit of a cost saving he talked about taking a cost saving a team friendly the oldest off season. What if case and has that same appetite not not not not putting that pressure on case and I don't think that and I don't think that it's right to say well why why wouldn't. And I've seen people say this about Shay why didn't Shay take less money you know that's not the players responsibility to take less money but we don't know if case wants to or not.

20:30To where that changes things to. To our case is going to take less money anyhow then you almost do when I wait until next summer to figure everything else out and then come back and circle back to case and because your safety takes so much longer than normal for agency. So there's just a lot of moving parts and the end result will remain no matter if case and it's a great year this year or a bad year this year or an in between year or the same year or a small step forward year whatever the degrees of range for case and outcome this season. The end result remains the thunder half to keep him. I think that they will I'd bank on the fact that they will and if they don't will have a will have a very harsh conversation but I think that they will. And so it's just to me you shouldn't concern yourself with the timing of it because again whether they send it now or later the contract is not going to affect until next year anyhow. So let's go through some of your hot takes we had a lot of ten of the tens yesterday let's try to find some someone said are more lukewarm okay we're back to tonight's and Oliver says I think the Celtics will miss the playoffs and I think that J double have a playoff series where he's the best player on the court so let's just separate it to Celtics to miss the playoffs.

21:45And then for this grade obviously we're assuming health right we're assuming health for this grade to miss the playoffs outside the 10 at 10 and the Celtics have continuously been a great regular season team a great team in general but I do love the Mitchell Robinson edition I do love you know Jason Tatum getting to come back and being year moved and having some games under spell removed from that injury and now getting play a full season I still think that this is a really well coach team that has a great system involved for winning regular season games. I think that they're going to make the playoffs in the Eastern conference and I don't say that dismissively to the Eastern comments these are conferences got much better in fact there's a real chance that the Eastern conferences a better conference in the west this year but when you look at the playoffs. Yeah you might have to like the worst case scenario for the Celtics this year I could see is the plan but it's like okay yeah you're in the plan look at the look at the toothless tigers will be in the plan tournament this year for the east. You know it when it comes to beating the Celtics not it just comes to in general I think the deep the plan teams will be fine fun teams to watch they're not going to be Celtics good and Celtics star power good.

22:51It's like the Celtics you know that I bet them to hypothetically bet them for a different purposes only but I've hypothetically bet them to win over over 50 games this year like I think they're going to be really good that's a 10 to 10 I'd be so stunned if the Celtics missed the playoffs and then for for the thunder and J. W. I think that this is like a two at a 10 hot take and it's not just because of my belief in J. W. As I've been touting all summer. But you look at AJ Mitchell being the story from that Laker series and AJ Mitchell take nothing away from me great series fantastic series but look at the command that she had to have to really rely on AJ and AJ being the best option and J. W. This is not a high take this is not put down to AJ J. W. It's just better than AJ Mitchell J. W. And all NBA player so it's like whenever a team that you run into is there so focused being get the ball away from Shay. It's going to go to J. W. Hands and he's going to perform at a high level he's going to be elite he's going to be awesome. I think that there was some series in that championship around where it wasn't that J. W.

23:52It wasn't as it wasn't as cut and dry of like Shay outperforms you to be a massive massive massive way. Now again this is where it comes into how do you want to determine best player. And I'm doing this so that most people will not the way that I will. So most people will look at a playoff series and if J. W. If J. W. has more points per game and it is even a convicted more points per game of it's more clear cut of just obviously J. W. Most people with a fault to well J. W. Was the best player that series but to me I look at it and say well yes J. W. Was awesome in that series for sure and he scored and he capitalized but the quality of shots would be so different for J. W. Had Shay not been there. It's similar to AJ Mitchell of the Lakers to put it into a context you can kind of more so cling to a not a hypothetical like AJ Mitchell fantastic. You can say I like great job great series. And it wasn't all because of S. G. A. but a lot of it was because of S. G. A. A lot of it was because S. G. A. had so much attention on them that AJ had to step up AJ got the benefit of playing worst defenders and going up against worst defenders.

24:55AJ got the benefit of the gravity of Shay that he went and took advantage of it he capitalized on it. Now everybody can do that as we saw in this per series whenever AJ went out and J. W. Was out. Now everybody can do that. It's a very great skill set but if I was to tell you who is the best player of that Lakers series. The best score and the best productive player obviously AJ Mitchell the best player in the context that I think of was still Shay because Shay still made all that happen by having an attention. Because if you were to remove Shay from that Lakers series the numbers for AJ go down. Because you would no longer be focusing on stopping Shay you would no longer be sticking your best defenders on Shay you would no longer be loading the side of the court that chase on to be ready to send help to him. You would be more balanced you would have better fender on AJ Mitchell and you would have more attention on him. So again I graded this low because of how people think of best player of a series and they typically just tied to points and wins. So yes I think this will happen. There's going to be a series where everybody's like man how good was J. W.

25:58And because the attention is so much on Shay. Shay obviously is the pack specter MVP and a no doubt about it Hall of Famer and a no doubt about it all NBA player this year first team like obviously it will be the better player in general no matter what but yes there will be a series in which people take that and say J. J. W. is better because he scored more coming up let's go let's go through more of your hot takes on today's lock down Thunder podcast. But first one to you right now but good friends over at O. D. go check out O. D. today because O. D. is fantastic running a business shouldn't feel like you're trying to connect the bunch of systems that were never designed to work together one app for accounting another for inventory and other for sales and somehow none of them talk to each other. That's where I do comes in I'll do is an all in one business management software that brings every part of your business together in one platform from sales and accounting to inventory and marketing everything works in one place I'll do is one platform to grow manage and scale your business today I love the fact that you can really feel the presence of community for your organization with O. D. because it really just feel like everybody's working at the same playbook which is what you need to grow your business is what you need to scale your business.

27:07Go check it out today because you you do not want to make any reaction removes you want to have a vision you want to stick to it and that's what I do let you do because O. D. knows that great organizations win because operations matter that's why you should get O. D. O. do is a one platform to manage growing skill your business. Try for free today. No do that come slash locked down it's O. D. O. dot com slash locked on O. dot com slash locked down. We're back on locked on that podcast on locked on podcast network your teams every day you're talking thunder basketball also next next week next month some some time soon the NBA board of governors will meet to discuss expansion. I think the expansion is going to happen and that'll bring a lot of fun expansion mock drafts a lot of fun I think they're going to redefine the expansion rules frankly with what's going to be allowed for for the expansion draft but it'll become a lot of fun content but also the expansion fees maybe that'll help a lot with the thunder's growing roster bill so that'll be fun to look at but we have some more how takes here.

28:11Taylor Vernon says this team coming up with the thunder will be better than the team that won the championship and so I said done. You know you've given me free reign to discuss and take this however I want to the way that I'll think about it I think that this is going to be a two at a 10 hot take because obviously it'll be hard to still go in a championship like this every year but let's just say for the sake of argument today that this team was a championship. And you're comparing this championship team versus 24 25 team. I think that this team is better on paper and in this hypothetical and actuality for the playoffs better equipped and it'll be better functionally for the playoffs than that 24 25 team they have more experience every player at the top is grown and become better players than they were then even shea and the rotation while it is hurt in the regular season and this is going to be a lot of fun. And this is going to be the clearest crystallization of my take from from the soft season that I can possibly give you yes I will admit to you and I've cautioned to you that the regular season rotation picks a hit from where it was but I've always told you the playoff rotation is still strong and and honestly stronger which is true this playoff rotation will be stronger than it was in in 24 25 I think.

29:33I just believe that much in what healthy a J Mitchell is in what case and also be this season in what a better chat and a better Jada is and I know that shed had a disastrous Western comments finals he's not out of geofree but he was way better in that playoff run obviously it was healthy and obviously just a better player than he was in that championship run in the first two rounds and he was way better last year than he's ever been career year last year and that should continue he's got to solve the same Antonio thing I hear you but if he does which it will take to win a championship and we're on the top. We're operating in hypothetical that they want a championship he's better she's better does better a J's healthy and better cases going to be better and then you still have crews so you still have as a hardstein J will who was pivotal in that Denver series and you don't want to talk about J in the second round J will in the second round J will complain every series this year and he's better than he was. And again the difference here is you've lost Lou who was awesome on that title team in that run but I think that case in an AJ combined will serve you better and be more productive and be more helpful than even how great Lou d'Or it was in that title run for that same position in those same minutes and then the other two guys you lost the summer non factors for the most part and when it comes to the playoffs and it comes to relying on them and they're replaced by we've seen when the lights are bright turned into can play really good ball.

30:54He plays really good ball when the lights are bright. So I think that this is going to be a calm take when it comes to just who has better playoff depth. And I'm not putting this loss on mark but it's like marks a better coach than he was then and he was a great coach then but he's it's obvious you're better at your job every day you go to it like if you if you care about your job and you try your job you're better every day you go go to it because you you go and find yourself in new positions. You find yourself in new experiences you have more you have more problem solving ability and you look at that game when against Denver that was a collapse. That's a disastrous collapse in your home court and you fall at the fallout three and everything else like that was just bad. And it's not all mark absolutely not now he did take you did take response belief right after the game and that's what coaches have to do it's not on mark that that happened but he's just better equipped for these scenarios. And he was already great at it and he was there to win a title I'm not missing mark I'm just saying that as we say she got better mark at better too and you know he have the best player in the world get better the best coach in the world get better your team is just automatically better you know what this what this roster if things pan out the way we think.

32:05So if we're projecting and we're predicting and I'm grading your prediction I think that this is a good prediction because I think that for them to title and then you compare them to the other title team it'll be because there are a lot better. There are a lot a lot better another time I think I'll take though be a custom card says a thunder will use the 15th russia spot on Zach living whenever he agrees to about from the Kings and the Mill this season. Okay okay and that's where the show ends folks that that's where we're done for the day in September Zach living. I'll give you the same courtesy that I gave to the J well man if the thunder sign Zach Levine to their final russia spot I will publicly announce that I was wrong in the credit you by name I will I will send you anything you want from the lockdown March store and I will write you a handwritten letter letting you know how wrong I was to to mock you for this but. Zach Levine good lord it's the summertime folks but we're almost back a couple weeks will be Sam press press depressor it'll be media day it'll be training camp and then it'll be full back on lockdown thunder but until then folks be good and be good to one another.

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