What to Expect From the NATO Summit

Eric and Eliot welcome LTG (ret.) Douglas Lute, former Director of Operations for the Joint Staff, Deputy National Security Advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan under both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO to discuss the upcoming June 24-25 NATO Summit in the Hague. They discuss NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's formulas for reaching the Trump Administration target for NATO Members to spend 5% of GDP on Defense (Rutte has proposed a 3 1/2 % defense spending target with 1 1/2% spending on infrastructure counting toward the 5% objective). Lute highlights the unpredictability that Trump brings to NATO Summits recounting his own experience in 2017 with the unveiling of the Article 5 memorial commemorating the invocation of Article 5 in response to 9/11 which Trump used as an opportunity to excoriate Angela Merkel and other European leaders. They discuss European attitudes towards Trump 2.0 and whether the shock effect will lead to more effective European efforts on defense. They discuss intra-European dynamics at NATO, the role Ukraine will play at the Summit, Trump's aversion to using leverage against Putin, extended nuclear deterrence in Europe, the communique drafting process at NATO (spoiler alert: there will be no communique at this Summit), the NSC decision-making process and Trump's parade and the danger of politicizing the military.

Eliot's latest in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/06/cohen-military-parade/683143/

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.