What China thinks of Trump's war with Iran

0:00Support for here and now any time comes from MathWorks, creator of MATLAB and Simulink software for technical computing and model-based design. MathWorks, accelerating the pace of discovery in engineering and science, learn more at MathWorks.com. WBUR Podcasts. Boston. Frankly, the Chinese, I think, see the war serving a lot of their diplomatic interests, not the least of which is that China is just as happy to see the United States alienated from as many of its traditional allies as possible. With the US waging war against Iran, Chinese leaders might be taking advice from Napoleon, never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.

1:00It's Wednesday, March 18th, and this is here and now any time from NPR and WBUR. I'm Chris Bentley. Today on the show, a retired army general says the US is on the edge of a strategic disaster, as it tries to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Also, can the mail survive losing its biggest customer? Amazon reportedly plans to cut packages sent by the US Postal Service by at least two-thirds later this year. Before we get to that story, though, the decision by the US and Israel to start bombing Iran more than two weeks ago has had ripple effects far beyond the Middle East. Though it's hard to overstate just how much havoc it's wreaked in the region, with Israel simultaneously invading and bombarding Lebanon, and Iran retaliating with missile and drone strikes in at least nine countries. American presidents have been promising to pivot to the Pacific, or otherwise avoid getting mired in the Middle East for decades,

2:04and yet here they go again. While war has not come to China directly, President Trump did ask to postpone his summit in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping that had been scheduled for later this month. So we wanted to talk with someone who would know about what this war means for US-China relations, and that person is David Lampton, former director of China's studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. David Lampton told Scott Tong that China is watching this war closely. Yes, I think it's got the Chinese thinking about the coherence of a American foreign policy first and foremost. China has important interests with Iran, which it wants to safeguard. Certainly the first thing is that Iran is China's number two source of imported oil, Saudi Arabia, incidentally, number one, and then less thought of often is the fact that China is

3:08a major builder of infrastructure. There's a lot of rebuilding of infrastructure going on in Iran already, and there'll be a lot of infrastructure to be replaced, and China wants to be one of the builders of that infrastructure. Also, frankly, the Chinese, I think, see the war serving a lot of their diplomatic interests, not the least of which is that China is just as happy to see the United States alienated from as many of its traditional allies as possible. Also, they see fissures in the United States in its own domestic political system. So China has a lot of interests, economic, but strategic and diplomatic as well. Yeah. Well, on the table right now is President Trump's request, perhaps demand that China and other countries step in to help the U.S. open the state of Hormuz, which Iran has closed to most anchor ships. Beijing has not said yes, instead it's been urging de-escalation.

4:13How big a standoff is this between these two superpowers? Actually, I don't think it's that much of a standoff in the sense that I don't think there's the slightest chance, basically, that China is going to transform itself from its hopeful role of being a mediator, which may not be too realistic, but it certainly wants to avoid becoming a combatant or caught in sort of the crossfire in the straight of Hormuz. So this may not be the right moment for the two leaders to get together. Certainly, President Trump's putting a lot of emphasis on cooperation, as he calls it, for various countries to help secure the Hormuz straight. And I think were they to meet in the President's current frame of mind, emphasizing what he calls cooperation with the Chinese not being, I would guess, willing to become any more involved. This may not be the best time to get together. Maybe the better part of wisdom is not to force things. I'd also say

5:16as even before the current call it flare up in the Persian Gulf, the Chinese were a little worried that the United States seemed preoccupied and unable to kind of fix on an agenda for the meeting. Frankly, the Chinese are probably gobsmacked that the US is asking them to play a role in the straight, particularly just for one of the things that would occur to the Chinese. The US is making their life difficult in terms of using the Panama Canal and pork facilities there. And the United States is impeding their role in the Panama Canal at the same time we're asking for their help. So I think that would create some dissonance in China. Yeah. Well, as far as this scheduled trip by President Trump to Beijing, the US pushing to delay it, it would be the first visit by an American President to China in almost a decade. Whenever it does happen, how important is this meeting to China to the US?

6:22Well, in fact, my statement that I think I had this moment with recommend them postponement is precisely because I think it's so important that this be successful. You mentioned the first meeting in many years. That's important. But the fact of the matter is the United States and China are involved in an arms race, a technological race, and we've got to work whether we like it or not, and that the Wii is both of us to develop some common rules of the road. Proliferation in Asia is going to become an increasing problem. China is increasing. It's nuclear warheads and it's delivery vehicles. And as China does that, Japan is going to respond. And as Japan responds, then Korea will respond. And then, of course, there's India and China. Then there's India, China, and Pakistan. So we have such a rich and important agenda

7:22on arms control and trying to get a handle on arms limitation that we really need to focus on that and not be distracted by a lot of other things. Also, the whole tariff mess needs to be straightened out. And stepping back just for a moment, you've been observing these two countries for a long time, writing about them, analyzing them. How do you think about where the US-China relationship is right now? Well, I think a good example, if you look back about two plus decades, we had 9-11. You may remember George W. Bush said, you are either with us or against us. Practically, the first major power call President Bush, God, after 9-11 was from Johnson the then president of China. And he basically said to Bush, our answer is we are with you. We have gone from this, we are with you, to we are each other's biggest strategic competitor.

8:28We had a policy of reassuring each other. China that it would be respectful of our security interests and to some extent economic interests. And we tried to reassure China that we wouldn't move too far away from one China policy and tried to reassure China we stood for the development and prosperity of China. And now, we are in a policy of deterrence. That is to say, we see each each other as the biggest threat. You could hardly define a more different situation that's involved over the last two decades. David Lampton is Professor Emeritus former head of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Professor, thanks so much. Good to be with you. Coming up next, Scott gets another point of view on the war from a retired army general. Stick around.

9:31Support for here and now any time comes from Select Quote. If you're new to life insurance, you're not alone. Thankfully, there's Select Quote. For over 40 years, Select Quote has helped more than two million Americans understand their options and get the coverage they need. Select Quote takes the guesswork out of finding the right life insurance policy. Life insurance is never cheaper than it is today. Get the right life insurance for you, for less, and save more than 50 percent at selectquote.com slash anytime. That's selectquote.com slash anytime. Today, the Trump administration faces more questions on why it attacked Iran and the intelligence behind it. Senators today are questioning Tulsi Gabbard, the director of National Intelligence. Just one day after a top official undergabbard resigned, that official Joe Kent said Iran posed, quote, no imminent threat to the United States. Retired General Barry McCaffrey joins us now. General, welcome back. Good to be with you. Let me ask about Joe Kent. He ran the National Counterterrorism Center

10:33until he resigned. That's inside the intelligence community. The White House spokesperson sites strong and compelling evidence that Iran was going to attack the United States. Yet Kent in his resignation letter said Iran posed no imminent threat to the US. What does this tell you about the intelligence justification for this war? It's non-existent. It's parcel. It's obvious that the Iranians would have been mad to attack the United States from a position of tremendous weakness following the 12-day war 10 months ago. They were involved in negotiations. They thought they were possibly going to get through this without an attack. So it's made up after the fact. By the way, there is an argument for using military power to degrade or eliminate Iran's nuclear capability. But the only way you actually get at that is to return arms control inspectors to the ground, not through air warfare. Well, this point in the war, Iran has responded

11:41by blocking the street of Hormuz, critical waterway, of course, recruit oil and natural gas. Let me play a clip from today's hearing. This is Democratic Senator Mark Warner questioning Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence. The president continues to say as well that he had no idea. It was shocked that the Iranians would move to take over the straight of Hormuz. Did you provide any intelligence that would say that it would be that it was not likely that the Iranians would try to move on the street? I'm not aware of those remarks and I think those of us here at the table can point to the fact that historically the Iranians have always threatened to leverage their control of the president saying he was amazed. I'm not aware of those remarks. What about the, what are Barry McAfee? What are you hearing there? The thing again, there is no national security process. We need to understand that. The National Security Council, under all preceding presidents, essentially takes 30, 60, 90 days

12:44debate argument policy options. What we're dealing with in Trump is policy by WIM, actions by decree. The whole notion of attacking Iran without coalition allies in the Gulf or in Europe never mind Japan and South Korea and Australia who are influenced by this action and without taking into account the likely option that they would close the streets is simply astonishing. And it's going to be a strategic advantage to Iranians who have suffered a tactical disaster through these Israeli and US air strikes. Well, in general, we read all the time that the US military, the career professionals, they do these war games, they do these tabletop exercises to play out scenarios. Is it conceivable the Trump administration did not anticipate this? I think they didn't anticipate anything. They had a series of apparently determined JCS who I

13:49remind our listeners does have no command authority, no due to the uniform service chiefs. It's in the hands of the Secretary of Defense, EGSF and the President of the United States, but they proceed on these things with basically without any analysis on how they're going to do it. You could, you know, try and control the streets are removed by putting a sure one, two, three US Army divisions get a sanitary zone of 100 kilometers deep and stay there for the rest of your life. None of which sounds like a very good military option. So he just ignored this as a problem. But by the way, I think both sides now are in desperation of both Trump and the Iranians. It's possible we'll see serious talks. Iranians are a basket case on the economy despised by their own people. They may have murdered 30,000 plus during the uprisings and Trump's in a strategic disaster.

14:55Yeah. Well, this is finally, you know, you have said Iran has other tools that it's supposed including terrorism and cyber warfare. What do you worry about? Well, I think the cyber warfare can't bring down the industrial might of America, but it's going to be a huge problem. It'll be continuing. They've used it in the past quite successfully. They're very clever, capable people. I think the terrorism is less likely to be sleeper cells being activated in a major US city than at some point. If they're in such trouble now, they'll start lashing out at US presence in embassies, military bases, globally, who's already seen some domestic self-radicalized attacks. But it's concerned. And it's concerned even more so because federal law enforcement has been bullied in the submission. They fired some of their most experienced people. And many of the rest of them have been chasing immigrants rather than

15:58protecting the United States from terror attacks. All right, retired general. Barry McCaffer, you thank you once again. Good ability. One more story for you on today's show. Coming up, we give the war a rest for a few minutes to find out why the postal service might run out of money later this year. Indira Lakshmanan has that in just a minute. This message comes from Total Wine and More. College Basketball's biggest tournament is here and watch parties are underway. Total Wine and More has options that appeal to everyone, plus a few choices for cocktails. With low prices and a wide selection, everything can be found in one place. Whether hosting or bringing something to share, shop Total Wine and More in-store or online to get ready for the big tournament today. Spirits are not sold in Virginia and North

17:01Carolina. Drink responsibly, be 21. The U.S. Postal Service is running out of money in large part because of the collapse of snail mail. Last year alone, it reported a net loss of $9 billion. Now its largest customer, Amazon, plans to slash the volume of packages it ships through the postal service according to the Wall Street Journal. That's a disaster for a federal agency that relies on selling stamps and services, not on taxpayer dollars. Here's Postmaster General David Steiner at a congressional hearing yesterday. At our current rate, we'll be out of cash in less than 12 months. So in about a year from now, the postal service would be unable to deliver the mail. Business reporter Robin Farzad hosts the podcast full disclosure. Robin, welcome. Thank you. So the postal service has been on poor financial footing for 20 years as email has replaced many letters. Why haven't they been able to turn things around in two decades? Indira, relatedly and I promise I'm going somewhere with this. The hit dance track,

18:04Bizarre Love Triangle goes back 40 years this year. It turns 40 years old and this is what's the problem here. There is a Bizarre Love Triangle at play. Okay, I'm waiting for it. Yeah, with the USPS FedEx, Amazon and UPS. It used to be a pure, pure, pure quasi-private monopoly of the USPS and now they're all fighting over who should take the pain, who should take the enormous losses of the last mile. And if you're an enormously profitable firm like Amazon and variously profitable firms like FedEx and UPS, you want that pain to be borne by UPS, which has a mandate to deliver regardless. And here you have the UPS testifying on Capitol Hill, USPS saying that we can't afford to do this anymore unless you guys throw us more money. Well, the postal service had expanded its parcel delivery capacity in recent years, investing in bigger facilities, new machines to process boxes. And that was a big outlay that they made because Amazon was their biggest customer. Now, why has that relationship fallen apart? Amazon is its biggest customer by way

19:06of cash flow. It needs that cash flow to make all of the pension obligations, retirement and healthcare obligations and to keep the lights on and to keep the trucks gasped up. The problem is, it's still posting more than a nine billion dollar loss and it has significantly negative cash flow. And again, I mean, the loss is huge part of because it's mandate to deliver more than 170 million addresses six days a week. And 71% of these delivery routes are just underwater financially. And so they obviously would love to take the stamp price up to a dollar to keep kicking this can, this reckoning down the road. They want to slough off pension and retirement obligations. And at the same time, they want Amazon to have to pay more and more dearly for that last route. And Amazon is saying, we have the leverage in this. You're the ones that are going to have to go to Capitol Hill and bail out. Wow. Okay. All right. Well, in the short time we have left, as you say, the post office is mandated by Congress to deliver to every address in the United States six days a week, but they're not given the funding to do it. The Postmaster General said yesterday they'd been thrown

20:09over bored by Congress without a life jacket. So where do you see this going next, especially if they run out of money a month before the midterms when people have to put on. You know, it's a amtrak, which seemingly is always there on Capitol Hill saying with like a gun to its head. Give us the money or else. And if you were to man, you know, in an efficient way, run amtrak, maybe you'd have a couple of corridors, the Northeast corridors, but every Congress person wants every address delivered to. And this is a purgatory that they just cannot overthrow. Well, Robin, I'm sure we'll have you back to talk about what happens if the post office stops being able to deliver mail. That's Robin Farzad, host of Full Disclosure. Thanks so much, Robin. My pleasure. That's it for the show today. Here and now any time comes from NPR and WVR Boston. Today's stories were produced by Julia Corcoran, Sam Rapleson, and Thomas Danielleian. Our editors were Todd Munt, Mikhail Rodriguez, Michael Skato, and Cat Welch. Technical direction from Matt Reed

21:13and James Trout. Our theme music is by Mike Miscetto, Max Liebman, and me, Chris Bentley. Our digital producers are Allison Hagen and Grace Griffin, and here and now's executive producer is Alan Price. Thanks for listening. We'll be back with you tomorrow. Support for NPR and the following message come from ID Tech. ID Tech is where kids ages 7 to 17 find their people, the battle bots, game design, and more people. Go to ID Tech.com and use code ID Tech to save $150 this summer. This message comes from Warby Parker, prescription I wear that's expertly crafted and unexpectedly affordable. Glasses designed in-house from premium materials starting at just $95 including prescription lenses. Stop by a Warby Parker store near you. This message comes from Mint Mobile. If you're tired of spending hundreds on big wireless

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