Wednesday's Final Takeaways: Crude Volatility Clouds CPI and Retail Outlook

0:00To mark it on close, I'm Marley Caden here in Chicago, alongside Zambottis at the New York Stock Exchange. We'll close up the show with our final thoughts like we usually do. Of course, the first one for me has to do with oil. The International Energy Agency moving to calm the energy markets after oil prices surged on fears of supply disruption tied to this ongoing conflict with Iran. The IEA announced a record-coordinated release of roughly 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. That's the largest emergency drawdown in its history. The move comes after crude prices briefly jumped above $100 a barrel, fueled by concerns that attacks and shipping disruptions near the straight-of-for-mooze could tighten the market. Officials say that the coordinated release is designed to stabilize prices and address the immediate impacts of the supply disruption, but the IEA says that tanker traffic must resume through the straight-of-for-mooze to bring stable oil and gas flows back to the global market. A timeline for when the stocks would hit the market was not given with the release.

1:00And also, the latest inflation report shows that price pressures are holding steady, at least for now. The Consumer Price Index rose three-tenths of a percent in February, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4 percent, both numbers were in line with economist expectations. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, increased two-tenths of a percent for the month and two-and-a-half percent from a year ago, as shelter medical care and travel costs continue to climb. But economists say that the report may already be outdated, much like we were just talking about with Kevin Green, because it doesn't yet reflect the recent surge in oil prices tied to this conflict with Iran, something that could push inflation higher in the months ahead. Those were two of the big things that stuck out to me, Sam, but what stuck out to you on the session today? Yeah, more of the same, really, Molly. I mean, what you mentioned with the IEA this morning, I mean, Japan and Germany actually made announcements on the release of oil reserves ahead of the official decision coming from the energy agency. Japan said it will release part of its strategic reserves as early as Monday.

2:01And it speaks really to the sense of urgency for energy-dependent countries, particularly out in Asia right now. We're seeing countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, take energy-saving steps like four-day working weeks, work from home, carpooling and riding bicycles. So these economies also rely on imports of LNG from the Middle East, which the IEA does not address with this move. So I think it's going to be very interesting to watch what happens next, but with this energy shock, obviously, there's just a lot of focus on affordability right now. I mean, you mentioned that CPI. And I think that's really underscoring what McDonald's is reportedly trying to do. Now, trying to out-value its own menu, according to the Wall Street Journal's afternoon, the company plans to launch new deals next month, including items that cost $3 or less and four-dollar breakfast meal deals. So I think, you know, when everybody's worried about these sort of kitchen table issues, they are really trying to address the heart of it and get to the bottom of it, particularly with some of those low-income earners, Marley, but as for tomorrow, what will you be looking

3:04out for? We're going to get a close look at some of those low-income earners and some retail earnings. Sam, we're going to hear from Dollar General. We'll also get a look on the other side at Dixporting Goods, a Dollar General expected to post EPS of $1.61 on revenue of $10.78 billion. Investors will be focused on customer traffic versus basket size to see if that recent trend of customers browsing more but buying less as they try to stretch their budget is persisting. They'll also be looking to see if margins can hold near 30% for Dollar General. For Dixporting Goods, the street looking for earnings of $3.36 on revenue of $6.1 billion, that would mark a more than 50% increase from the year ago quarter in terms of revenue. Now between those two reports, Sam, we're going to get a read on that lower-income shopper but also the higher-income consumer and how pressured both essential and discretionary spending are right now. What will you be looking at? Well, we've got more data out tomorrow. As you say, and it's KG pointed out, I mean, a lot of the data we've been getting with these economic updates have really been overshadowed by, of course, what we're seeing in the

4:09Middle East right now. But for what it's worth, obviously, we're going to be getting a little bit more of an update on the jobs with the jobless rate that we get every week, of course, with some of the claims as well. So, we'll be watching out for that, but, of course, we'll also be getting trade data. So this will give us an update on the trade deficit and also exports and imports because, of course, we do remember that last month when we got some of that data, it was the exporter that came off a bit, so the imports were which were higher and that dragged on overall GDP in Q4. So let's wait and see what those numbers have to tell us. But as I mentioned, with one eye really on the developments over in the Middle East, you just wonder how much this data is really going to move the needle or just how backwards looking it is, really, in the minds of these markets right now. So we've got so much movement with this morning, but we'll see if tomorrow's a different story. That is going to do it for us today. Unrecord, unclose. Thank you. Thank you.