Was Labor slow to act on fuel fears?

0:00ABC Listen, podcasts, radio, news, music, and more. Hi, it's Sam Hawley from ABC News Daily. The podcast that brings you one big story affecting your world each weekday in just 15 minutes. AI is changing not just how we work, but it's also changing how we fight war. And we see that on our screens, we see what's happening in Rome, we see what's happening in Gaza, we see what's happening in Ukraine. Join me for ABC News Daily. Find us on ABC Listen. The government has ruled out sending a Navy ship to the Strait of Hormuz as fuel woes continue to seriously bite us here in Australia. And while the energy minister moved to unlock some of our fuel reserves and ease choke points late last week, now some regional communities have been left scrambling. So if this crisis continues, could fuel rationing beyond the table?

1:03Welcome to politics now. Hi, I'm Patricia Carvellis. And I'm Jacob Grieber. And Jacob, it's not a sitting week, but look, the news is coming in thick and fast. Just a couple of updates, the now five Iranian soccer players have given up their asylum claims to return to Iran, which is nothing short of absolutely heartbreaking. There's also the news that the South Australian election, well, it's coming this weekend, that's, well, I suppose, it's sort of news like it was in the calendar, that's coming. But it's really the first test of one nation's increased support, which we'll talk about. And tomorrow is the rates decision. And most people are expecting that rates will go up, which of course will break people's brains. But let's just start, if we can, Jacob, with fuel, fuel, fuel, because I think it's number one, two, three issues for everyone here in this country

2:05and around the world, but for us very much. Where are we at? Stop buying Jerry cans. Have you bought a Jerry can? I have not, but I have been very... Yeah, I've been a bit... I have a petrol car, so I've been a little bit like on edge, looking at petrol prices, just being aware. Feeling it? Feeling it, noticing it. Yeah, we've got one petrol car, one EV, and my daughter the other day wanted to use the petrol car to drive to school on a bright sunny day, and I said, no, ride your bike. So, yeah, everyone's doing a little things like that. But the Jerry can thing is this sort of emblematic thing. It reminds me of the toilet paper during the pandemic. You remember how the shelves disappeared with the toilet paper and water? The things that people prioritize. So, we're heading back into that world. The government insists this is not a rational response that there's plenty of supply for 30-something days. And of course, they've been saying that now for the best part of two weeks. So, that suggests if we have to take them at face value

3:05that fuel is arriving in the country, there is still supply coming in, and it's holding that reserve at 30 days. We're not cutting into that yet. The problem is that there is lumpiness in the way people buy petrol. So, people, for instance, in the agricultural sector, they've got to buy large amounts at once ahead of, say, harvest season. They'll fill up a 4,000-liter tank on the farm. In a normal time, that's fine. There'll be 10 farmers ordering the 5,000-liter or whatever. But when everyone all decides at once that they want to fill up that tank really fast, that's when the problems start. And that seems to be what's happening in a lot of the regional areas. There's problems in fisheries, and of course, there's concern about Avgas. It's still in that kind of moment where we are not seeing the real, real effects beyond just the price effect, which will have its own flow-on impact on demand. Once price goes up, people will think twice about,

4:08that some leisure trips somewhere on the weekend, they won't do it. So, that effect is probably already starting. But the real big question you looted to it when you started is, when do we get to the real world of rationing? In the 70s, when the first big OPEC oil shop shock happened, there was, you could only buy on an odd-numbered day, or if your letter started with every second letter in the alphabet couldn't buy for one day, so it was that type of thing. I don't think we're anywhere near that world yet, but it all depends on what one particular man on earth decides he can tolerate at his end, how much pain the American consumer will bear, how much political consequence he can bear before he blinks and ends this thing. And then does it, does it all go back to normal in a hurry or not? Do you think the government is sending the right message yet? Okay, so let's go through this, because I think this is key.

5:11We started last week, and we call a spade a spade, with the government suggesting, perhaps, we were idiots for making such a big deal about it. Well, actually, they were making out that the coalition, the opposition were idiots for the way they were framing it. My view is that that was politically inept. Am I right? Am I wrong? So you're suggesting that because they weren't taking people's concerns quite, I've got seriously, that's a bad government. Yes. I think there was an element of that definitely, especially in question time, where it was about goading and about talking about the past. Yeah, I think that's right. And I think some of that political gamesmanship is not a good look when people are actually genuinely just asking very, very rational questions about what comes next. Now, the government is also pointing, of course, to what it says are fear mongering by some. They've taken a particular stick to the Queensland government,

6:14particularly the Queensland Energy Minister, so there's a bit of tension there between Queensland and the Commonwealth. If we do get into the world of actual rationing or measures, then the states will have to be part of that, very much so, and that's something the government. You would expect them to be working on, but I don't know. Look, I think the messaging is interesting. This is the sort of day where you get a lot more of these COVID vibes on some of these questions. We're back to supply chain management, aren't we? We're talking again about how long can we go doing XY before our life changes, and the way we live our lives changes. I think we're back in that sort of headspace. The fuel thing, if the government doesn't sort of get on top of the narrative that it's thinking about what happens if the war goes for two weeks, what if it goes for two months, what if it goes for a whole year, or whatever the scenario is, what are the various plans? I can't help but think of the vaccine debate back in the pandemic.

7:16You remember it when Morrison said, well, it's not a race in terms of getting vaccines into the country, and it absolutely was a race. Well, in a way, securing future fuel supplies is a bit of a race as well, because there's this sort of insurance component to it. Do we pay above the odds now, even though it might turn out to be really expensive, but it ensures that we have enough fuel down the track. There's really only one entity in Australia that can do that, and that's the Australian government. What do you think? It's vexed either way, but how can you not insure yourself for what is a real live possibility of this being protracted, it escalating even more, and us being genuinely vulnerable. So it seems like one of those decisions that you don't want to make, but you must make, am I wrong? My male last week was that the government is still in the headspace of this has another week or two to go, max, like tops, in terms of the war. So they're in that headspace, but I'm starting to think,

8:18what happens if that assumption is wrong? What are you planning? What are you doing beyond that? And the government can go into the market and buy fuel. It can use its incredible balance sheet to pay $200 a barrel if it needs to. It's an insane price, but I'm just throwing it out there as an example. And it's not really necessarily the end of the world, because Australia is a net exporter of energy. So the energy that we're selling, and I'm talking here about gas, will be making very, very large windfall profits in that scenario. So you could, I'm not advocating this, but it's the sort of thing you wonder for government thinking about. Use the revenue from one to pay for the other, and then you ensure that you have supply. Okay, so last week they were repeatedly asked, can you guarantee we won't run out of fuel? They were very angry at this question. Chris Bowen said to me in an interview, it's basically an outrageous question. I don't agree that it's an outrageous question,

9:18and I'll tell you why, because his answer is, how can we predict the war? Well, that's not the question, right? Because yes, you're right, you can't predict the war. And that's why the question matters, because if the war keeps going, because Trump is as unpredictable as we all know, and there are hawks in his ear, right? We keep thinking he's just getting influenced by the sort of mega vibe of we don't want long wars. Well, there are also hawks in his ear who are suggesting to him. Now that you're in, you need to finish the job. You can't be going in, and then in a couple of years, we have to go back in, this is the US, because just part of the head has been cut off, but really the rest of the limbs are going and the brain's still there for a run and the regime. And so if he is convinced by that, because he is unpredictable, and he could still be, then we need to be in a position where we need to be prepared with enough supply of fuel and need to be able to guarantee that. So I do think there's a deficiency in the answer, which is we shouldn't have to answer that.

10:19I do think you need to be able to give the Australian population a sense of clarity that you won't run out. Am I wrong? Am I missing the political memo? Because it seems obvious to me. Yeah, I think that's absolutely right. There is no question that people will turn on you if there's a perception that you haven't thought through the worst case scenario. I think there is good reason to think Trump will blink because the political pressure is on him. Yeah, I agree. The MAGA base is turning against him. The tolerance for high energy prices in America is extraordinarily low. And you could hear some of that in the interview our colleague, Sarah Ferguson, did with Benny Gantz last week. So he's the former Defence Minister of Israel very much led the war into Gaza. He's no longer got that job. He's now an opposition figure in Israel. But his answer was, well, it's only been 13 days. So from the Israeli point of view, this hasn't gone very long at all. They're used to this state of uncertainty and war and there.

11:22And I think that talks to the idea that Trump probably doesn't have staying power from the Israeli perspective. And I think he will blink sooner rather than later. But if you're in Australia, you have no agency over these events. Like the Australian government does not affect any of these events. But are they thinking about the downside scenarios? And I'm sure they are. It's just they're not really communicating at this point. Are they thinking about what happens if fuel goes to $200 a barrel? What would the contingencies be? What happens if... Because there's still fuel going around the global market. It's that 20% of it is no longer available through the Straits of Hamir. So that means the rest of it's going to go up in price. But if you pay enough, you can get it. Yeah, that's right. What are we doing in the country to ensure that we have enough? Yeah, and we've already now dipped into our supply. I mean, that's what Chris Bowen announced a couple of days ago. We could dip further, but we are going to need to replenish it

12:22to provide the right level of security for it. And then we're going to have to have the hard conversations, which we've failed to have about how we can be sovereign and this where the politics comes in, and where key characters of the opposition, including Andrew Hastie, Matt Canavan, now as a New Nationals leader, will be interesting, in my view, because that's where they bring the ballast and the push for some of this. And on the Labour side, we're going to need to hear more meat on the bones of essentially the argument they were pushing during COVID, which is that we just aren't, we're not secure enough on our own, on our own two feet for when these world crises happen. Yeah. And so how do you think they respond to this issue of gas exporters suddenly travelling, quadrupling, whatever number, the income they make from gas? How does Canavan respond to that?

13:22The question is saying that should now be a tax on some of these exports. Exactly. So we need, so this is where the conflict inside of the coalition will be fascinating, because you'd think a character based on past form, like Matt Canavan, would be pushing for that as well, and would be saying, okay, we need to get serious here, which of course will come up against the economically dry instincts, the anti-tax instincts of someone like Angus Taylor, the New Leader, and then Labor Matters 2, I think we've got a Prime Minister who's very resistant to wanting to slap on taxes to big gas companies, aren't we? He's resistant to that sort of thing. You know, he might be a lefty, but he doesn't act like one very often. It's my view, but we've got a crossbench that has been pushing for some of this. I just think all of this now becomes very visceral and real. It was theoretical before, but now that you have oil heading up in price, energy heading up in price, it becomes a real debate,

14:22and it'll be interesting to see how they all navigate it. You're right, the Prime Minister has to have a face-to-face conversation with the Japanese Prime Minister, and Japan is incredibly worried about its supply of energy from Australia, and so he's thinking about that, but politics gets pretty raw when people are freaking out if they get to that point at the petrol balzer. So, look, I think we're still in the sort of moment where we're waiting to see how long it goes, but it's now feeling that the consequences, the uglier consequences, are more apparent on the horizon, I suspect. Yeah, I think that's right. Look, there's a few other elements here. The government this morning has ruled out sending an avi ship to the Strait of Hormuz, although I don't think we're rast, right? No, so the, well, my male from the government is that we have not been asked. Now, are they being literal? Are they being literal as asking, you know, is it a letter or what, or has hegseth called miles and sort of nudge, nudge, wink, wink? I mean, if, from what they've told us, we've got to believe that we have not been asked,

15:26and even if we were, it doesn't sound like we have that kind of kit to send, by which I mean, a avi ship that can defend itself against drones and other types of newer warfare. So, that's a, well, that's all a bit murky at this point. Does the Australian public, where do they sit on that idea? Do you think PK of getting so, at that point, you know, up until now, we've sent a wedge tail, which is a aircraft above the deck that listens. We've got some missiles on the way to help UAE and others defend themselves. But does it change when you have a navy, a navy department? Oh, I tell you how. Yeah, I think the Australian public would be very, very concerned about us being more deeply involved in any war in the Middle East. That's for sure. I mean, I think that's quite clear. However, however, it's all about the framing. If at some point we were officially asked, we'd decided to go there. We know James Patterson, for instance, he says he doesn't anticipate a request,

16:26but Australia would have to carefully consider any requests. Okay, so we would. I think if we framed it around our own energy and our own security, I think given Australians are very concerned about their energy security, I don't think it's an impossible sell at all, actually. I think people would be quite... If that's the pitch, do you know what I mean? It's all about the pitch. Is it we're going in for regime change? People not into that. We have to be involved because we want to make sure we get this 20% of oil through. Maybe that answer is different. Do you know what I mean? I don't know how this plays out, but this conflict has been triggered by Donald Trump. He's obviously been listening to the Israelis. Very interesting last week, he started to say, well, the reason we went in is because Jared Steve Pete and Marco told me that they were getting close to using having nuclear weapons.

17:26He's already pointing to the people who gave him the original argument. If it was all going swimmingly, if this was a tremendous success, it would have been Donald Trump's idea and only Donald Trump's idea. Yeah, and why is he mentioning these dudes? To me, that looks like the start of a bit of an off ramp for him. It's not going well. There's a new leader in Tehran. The Iranians have been hit hard, but they've been able to hit back by disrupting this very, very vital... It's an economic warfare that they've done using military means. And that's put huge pressure back on Trump. So you'd have to say this amount of time in, what are we now, two weeks in, we're into the third week, it's not going well. And do the Australian people want to become part of that, especially when it looks like it's a help fix up the mess type mission? I don't know. Well, let's just... We mentioned at the start of the pod that tomorrow is the interest rates decision

18:27that will give a whole new set of headaches for the government if interest rates go up and a lot of economists are suggesting they will. Australians facing the crunch when it comes to petrol prices at the same time as having to pay higher rates for their mortgage repayments that cannot be a happy story for households. And therefore, there was always a political flaw in effect. You and I know that Jacob said, well, listen, it's right. So watch that space, we'll get into it again after that decision is made. I just want to move us to what he's... To me, like, honestly, I feel nothing but sadness and lots of negative feelings here and I don't know if that's too much oversharing for our listeners, but it's how I feel about now what was, I think, briefly a happy story. I mean, a happy issue, we say that because we knew there was a dark side already, which is the seven Iranian soccer and adjacent players, people in the team generally granted asylum in Australia. Now, five, so there was the one.

19:28There was another three and now an extra one. It's all happened sort of at different rates. Have abandoned their asylum claims. They've rejoined their teammates, returned to Iran. It follows unverified and I really want to make this point. Unverified claims that one of the women was passing on threats to her teammates. I've confirmed I made a few calls because I was like, well, that's really full on. Do you think the government isn't watching this very closely through all of our agencies? They have been watching it. There's one comment which I want to point you to, which is essentially the Home Affairs Minister saying they have access to their phones. So, read in to that. In a weird way, I'm going to say this, like, because it has to be said. When Donald Trump intervened, the way he did, and made this a world famous story, covered by everyone, not just some domestic story for us, and put it on a platform so big, and put pressure, so-called pressure, it was already happening anyway on our government.

20:29Our government could no longer play this in a quiet discrete way, which could try and make it less sort of explosive. So, all of a sudden, it became a propaganda war between the Iranian regime, our government, the American government, and they are fighting for their very existence at the moment. So, they needed a propaganda win, and so after that photo was taken with Tony Burke, and Donald Trump had talked about it, and all this happened. This, in many ways, is completely and utterly predictable. Do you know what I mean? Utterly predictable, because it was too big a deal for the IRGC to lose. And what is their power? Their power is that they have access to every single person that these women love, and what is more powerful than people you love? Nothing. So, if someone threatened your mum or your children, and we're making an assumption that that's happened,

21:29but I reckon it's a pretty well-informed one. So, I'm making a point though that I don't have evidence they've done that, but boy, oh boy, I feel pretty sure based on past form of these guys, then I reckon you'd be pretty terrified about maintaining your asylum, and so we are seeing a regime that is throwing everything at this, and it's really just sad, because it's not just a straight up and down case, but the publicity is part of the problem, Jacob. You know, I haven't really thought about it that deeply on the publicity side, but I'm sure that is a factor that hangs over it. I think the other thought I have about these women is two weeks ago, or three weeks ago, whenever it is they came out to Australia to play these games. Their world was quite on quite normal. You know, they lived in Iran, they were Iranians, their families were there, their lives were there. They've come out here, a war has started, and then this concern about their safety when they didn't sing the national anthem,

22:32and the reports out of, I think it was a TV commentator saying that they were traders, it all becomes a big thing. A week later you've gone and put in an asylum claim in a country you don't know at all, really, and it's going to be where you spend the rest of your life. I just think at a personal level, that makes you, I mean, that's a hell of a thing to do. From one week to the next, it's a hell of a thing to have gone through and to sit there quietly after the noise and think, wow, I'm now going to live in this country, I don't really know anything about. I have no real people or connections to. I just think that then weighs on the minds of someone like that. And if there is then someone else, a third party, whatever it might be, who can lean on that, they're quite vulnerable. So I really do, I feel very sorry for the women. It's a really tough place to have been put.

23:32We'll see what happens to these women now when they go back. Well, I think we won't necessarily know either. But the propaganda point I made is a really important one, because if you look at how they're being paraded or shared in Iran, the story there is that they were basically manipulated by us, by the Australian government, by our system. And so that's why I say it's a propaganda war. And I think a lot of it has to do with the status it got. The high status it got was part of the danger for these women. And remember, you don't leave a regime like that and get to go back for your summer holidays. No, no, no. If you are one of these women, you don't go back to Iran to see your mum. No, that's what I'm saying. It's the human factor of you're burning a bridge. You're burning a hell of a bridge and you're doing it really. It's not like you've had months and months or even years to think about it. It's from one day to the next at a soccer tournament. I mean, that's a hell of a thing to go through.

24:33And I just quietly wonder how many other Iranians who are not famous, who are not members of a soccer team are currently going through the same thing? Yeah, I think that's right. And there are a lot of, I wrote a piece today to show notes. There are a lot of displaced Iranians now, and there will be more presumably summer streaming through to Turkey. We are going to have to think about now that we are playing defensive. It's not offensive military role, what our moral obligation is to those people, the ones who, because there are many, let's not forget, we've had many asylum seekers who are Iranian, who do want to come to this country and have made judgments. And so we have to be helpful to them, perhaps, too. There are lots of considerations for people who are leaving really oppressive regimes. And like every day, I'm glad that I was born into the postcode lottery that we've been born into, Jacob. Just quickly, the South Australian election is happening on Saturday, and the entire nation, of course, is watching on, because this is the first case study of how one nation will perform

25:35after they have been skyrocketing in the polls. How do you see it? Yeah, I think everyone's really, really intrigued to see how much they can translate. What is, frankly, up until now, hype that is in polls, polling hype, if you want to call it that. This is the first time they have an opportunity to turn that into actual seats, one in South Australia. There's a resolve poll out this morning, really very dramatic. So ALP's primary vote is now 29%. The coalition's on 22, just behind one nation on 24. So that pattern that we've seen really since the end of last year has not turned. There's been no obvious sign that the change of leadership is having that effect that I think some of them wanted, but it's also pretty early. Angus Taylor is out in Farrah today, tomorrow on Wednesday, campaigning for the Liberal Party in that election. That is also another test of one nation, but South Australia is first.

26:36What's your sense? If they don't win a bunch of seats, is it all a damp squib or is South Australia different because the electorate there is, I guess, generally more progressive? I think it matters. I think it will show us some lessons, so we will read into it and we should. But equally, it won't tell every story. Do you know what I mean? Like, every election at a state level, at a federal level is different. Yes, it's the first live test to see a bit of what's happening here, but I don't think it will tell all the story or the federal story. I think state elections are different. You know, I just think there is an overeating as well. So I'm not saying I'm not going to be reading, because I will to how one nation's gone, but I also think that just to then go copy-paste onto the federal system or the Victorian election later this year, or the Farrah by-election is maybe too much.

27:36So bit of sort of working our way through the middle. Yes, the South Australian electorate is sort of known historically for being progressive. We can give lots of examples. But equally, it is showing some backlash as well to the same things that every other part of the country is showing. Like, they are not living in their own little bubble, but they have some peculiarities which are very South Australian. Yeah, and there's local issues. And I think there are actually four corners tonight. I think has a whole piece on the algal bloom, which is intensely South Australian story. There was a lot of anger in South Australia that the rest of the country took a long time to notice this ecological disaster. They felt that if it had happened at Bondo Beach, it would have been front page news the first morning, but it took months for really anyone else to notice. And I think, yeah, that will be an interesting show tonight. So, and it is this question as well, isn't it? One nation's clearly taking support away from the coalition. How much is it taking away from Labour? That's what South Australian will show. That is the next question.

28:36And I did my four corners on these questions, and I can tell you the federal Labour Party was feeling like, yes, it could be a looming issue, but it wasn't yet, they were playing things differently to what was happening in the UK. They were addressing people's cost of living issues. But that, I started that way before a war and petrol prices and looming more rate rises. So, I reckon that changes things, heaps. Jacob, you know, Monday's one of my favourite days. Don't say that, it's the favourite day, surely. Yeah, well, I was thinking about my other co-host, listen. Look, I'll accept the following. I'm your favourite person that you talk to on a Monday. You are. Hands down. And that's it for politics now today. We'll be back in your feed. A little later tomorrow to bring you the latest on that interest rate decision, because of course, like that will very much frame the day. So, we'll come to you with that. And then, of course, we do special episodes of your questions. Send them to the party room at abc.net.au. And we will answer them. See you, Jacob.

29:36Take care.