WAF 206 - 2026 Bold Predictions

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3:07Bernet and Steve just sweaty. Welcome back everybody. We've got two wins above fantasy, episode 206, this comes out Friday, March 13th, a little good luck there, Steve and March, we'll take it all and we got an awesome show tonight talking bold predictions, it's that time of year, Steve, I know that our drafts are underway, we've got a handful of names here, five each that we are going bold, which is always equal parts fun and kind of indicative of guys we like in general, but just wish casting a little bit on how amazing the season could be, so I'm so excited to get into all these names, how's it going out there, I know I was telling you, I'm licking my wounds a little bit from a work trip where we went out last night, but this is a nice little therapy talking fantasy baseball at the end of the night, but how's it going man? It's great man, fully in the swing of things, the more impressed baseball classics it's been great, there's been drama around it, drafting has been super fun, just really

4:12trying to enjoy these last few weeks of draft season and we're in the thick of it, right, this is these next two weekends, so the weekend of the 13th and 20th are the big draft weekends, right, the season starts two weeks from Wednesday, from last Wednesday, so it's coming up, this is it, it's just a great, great time to be a fan of fantasy baseball and in the middle of these drafts cannot wait for my homely draft, I haven't so much fun with TGFBI and then just consuming all the content that I can get and just to dovetail into our topic, bold predictions, it's one of my favorite bits that the fantasy community does, you know, there's so much hate and negativity now on Twitter and you see people like saying, you know, these help no one and that's not the point of what bold predictions are, they're fun, you know, when you do get them right, they're super meaningful and

5:14it gives an insight into the process and guys that we like and like you said, wish casting, you know, I saw like Pulse War going back, you know, one of the reasons why I love Paul is he has no chill whatsoever and just like, you know, going back with the, you know, some of the trolls on Twitter, just like, you know, them pushing back on the fun of fantasy baseball and, you know, Justin Mason was out there too and that's that's what this is, this is fun, bold predictions are fun and I'm super excited to get into him, we do this every year and hopefully we get we get a few right, I know we have some ground rules that maybe you can get into but yeah, no, that's a great, that's a great level set, the ground rule is pretty much we follow the Nick Pollock School of thinking, you know, before back when we used to do the articles for them, rule of thumb is that these should feel like they have no more than a 10% chance of happening. So I think a couple of ours might somewhat push that boundary a little bit, Steve, but we'll talk about it and in general, it's a, it's a way to look at like you said,

6:16Steve, the process and players we like in general are teams, we like in general and and you know, I think it's it's something that can still help you in your drafts and then just a fun thing that we can keep a little scoreboard on for our side as well. So I will lead us off, Steve, because mine is a little bit higher up in the the 8P. Yeah, we could we could vary in boldness and vary in takes here. Yeah, it's right. It's our show. Yeah. Yeah. So maybe let's do that is after each person does it, the other person has to say like scale one again, how bold. Okay, like it. So my first one is that Wyatt Langford will get a combined 70 homers and steals. And this one, I've got to, I've got to give a shout to the CBS guys. Chris Towers is fantastic. He's been on the show before, but he's he's one that like kind of turned my head on this. And as I was looking into it, like it's all exciting where I think Wyatt Langford is almost just this

7:18post type sleeper, which is bizarre, but I think we get so quickly, you know, drawn to like the shiny new toys that in a really weird way, Wyatt Langford kind of feels like kind of a safe pick in that like ADP 50 range. So last year for this for this prediction, especially last year, he had 44 combined this year as highest projection is 49 combined homers and steals. So the prediction is going 21 over the highest projection system. So yeah, looking at Wyatt Langford, 70 grade speed, 70 grade power, like you could almost stop there because it's again a guy that I almost feel like is is being viewed unfairly just on like back of the baseball card stuff. And we forget that this guy was like top five pick and absolute like heralded prospect. And he's just 24 years old. So yes, he's seen over a thousand played appearances at this point, but I think that's a good

8:20thing because that means he's, you know, comfortable to play. He's comfortable with just being in the bigs. But his rookie year, if you go back in 2024, he started out mashing, had five homers in April, five homers in May. And then in May of 2024, he had a hamstring issue where he missed almost a month last year though. And this was the the Chris Towers show is this guy had 22 homers and 22 steals. He missed 28 games, but he was almost always either coming off of an injury or kind of fighting through the next injury. He had an oblique injury. I'm sorry, three different oblique injuries throughout last year. So it was right oblique in early April, left oblique in late June, and then late September was the left oblique again. That is one of the tougher injuries for just how a hitter swings and generating power. Even with all of that, he still improved his

9:20barrel rate went up 87th percentile, 81st percentile hard hit rate. And again was a 2020 guy. So from a speed standpoint, he stole 22, he got caught six times, but he has 98th percentile sprint speed. There were offseason reports that he's he was actively doing workouts to strengthen his core and strengthen his obliques. The head coach there had talked about trying to keep quiet healthy for all 61 62 games. So yes, some things would have to happen. Like 70, you know, it might end up looking like 30 homers, 40 steals or something, but I just really think like it wouldn't shock me and it feels like the industry is maybe forgetting how much upside this guy has. He could truly be like a first round pick if it all clicks right for him. So Steve, long rant there, but give me the rating on the boldness and your thoughts in general on why it Langford.

10:20And I said 80p 50. I don't I think that's a little bit later than he's actually going. So it's okay, 46 on the season. So yeah, talk to me about your thoughts on Langford and the the bold prediction. Yeah, I like it. In honor of team Italy and my heritage, I think, you know, if it is truly a spicy take, I think we can give it a spicy meatball. I would say this is a this is a mild meatball. And then, you know, if it's not bold enough, we can just do like a regular plane, you know, before they're, you know, saw stuff and everything like that. But I do like Langford, the player this year. I think sort of your earlier point, guys kind of only have like one year, and then we're looking to the next prospect, like if you slightly disappoint the hype's gone, like, you know, we I think of like Gunner Henderson and Corby Carroll, like hitting the ground running the the first year that they came up after that September run and like, okay, yeah,

11:21that now they're established as first, second round guys and they go from there. But it's not always that easy. Guys do come up and struggle and then take some time. And, you know, Langford really hasn't truly struggled. He's been fancy viable both the years that he's been in the majors. Yeah, sure. I think there were some higher hopes and maybe people considered a Corbin Carroll type ceiling right away. But I think maybe that's still in there. Like it's kind of the injury is kind of overshadowed all of the quality contacts gains that he made last year. Oh, you went from from 63 percentile in barrel rate at 9.3 percent to 87th with 14 percent. His hard hit rate increased to 48 percent. That's 80 that's 81st percentile. He didn't sacrifice, you know, and it much of his plate discipline as far as chase wise. Yeah, there were some more swinging missing this game is with percentage went up his strikeout rate went up, but the walk rate did

12:25go up and the overall swing strike rate doesn't indicate like, oh, this guy is a strikeout problem. It's just 10.4 percent and he still struck out 26.4 percent of the time. That indicates to me that, you know, there may be a little bit of passivity going on as far as like, you know, only swinging at 6.10 percent pitches in the zone. Yeah, he did make a little less overall contact last year, but hey, I'd take that little bit of a tradeoff in, yeah, it's slightly elevated strikeout rate for the quality contact gains that he made. Yeah, the speed is unquestionable. You know, 88th percentile sprint speed, you know, got his steel numbers throughout the minors and, you know, Erie's had a 2020 season had, you know, 35 combined homers and steels in 557 plate appearances in 2024. 44, like you said last year in 573, like, if he gets, you know, if he has a 650 plate appearance season,

13:273030 is not out of the question at all. I think that's kind of conservative. All the projections have him in that five, you know, five 60 to six 13-ish plate appearances and they're at 24 homers, 23 steels. Like, why would he hit the same amount of homers and steels in, you know, 100, more or 50 to 75 more plate appearances, right? That doesn't, that doesn't really make sense if that's what he just did. So, yeah, I think Langford has potential to pop off this season, especially given the gains that he made that were kind of maxed by that injury. So, I like this first one that you got here. Nice. And the cherry on top is Wyatt Langford has a 1455 OPS, three homers and nine games in spring. So, I know we don't look into it too much, but he is mashing right now. So, that's Wyatt Langford. Steve, take us over to whichever of your first bold prediction. Yeah, my first one I'm going to go with is that Parker Meadow, Parker Messick,

14:30not Parker Meadow, Parker Messick finishes as a top 30 starting pitcher. He's currently a 108th on the list. I know that's partially due to, you know, some job, some question about the job security. I personally think he will be in that rotation. We'll shoot up and maybe that will make this a little bit less of a of a of a of a of a bold take here, but yeah, I just think that this guy is massively underrated and can be sort of a Chris Babitch first half of last year, type of lefty model breaker guy. What is it's a swatch that Nick likes to call it? Guys just, yeah, sound call with the tight change. Yeah, yeah, exactly, exactly. Yeah, there's not a lot to like in the in the stuff metrics, right? The fast wall velocity is close to average for a lefty, but you do have to consider that it's 92.8 average for a lefty is 93.1. So it's not

15:34like too too far off. If you look at the population versus a righty, I don't think that's necessarily fair. He does have five pitches that he uses 13% of the time. So that's another, you know, ars, you could throw the arsinal at you. His location numbers are great. They're above average on five four of the five pitch five pitches that he throws. And he had a 22% strikeout minus walk rate between the majors and triple A last year. There's only seven qualified pitchers in the majors that had a 22% strikeout minus walk. I know that most of those numbers came in the minor, so that's unfair. Comp, but that's still what he did. Yeah, all the projections like him, they have him for 120 endings at 22% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. You know, that's pretty close to what he did last year. I know that there was a pretty high babbip, a 360 babbip that led to an inflated whip and a really high left on base percentage that read to the inflated ERA, it's just

16:38272. I think both those things will normalize. And I think he's going to get this spot out of spring. Like Logan Allen, like has an option and he is better than Logan Allen for the Guardian. So I just think there's upside for more just on the volume wise and just the fact that he has these gaudy strikeout numbers low walk rates in the minors and may not be this high pitching prospect because the stuff doesn't pop in a in a stuff model. So I think Messick has potential to sort of be, you know, a back end to three starter in a 12-10 team league and finishes a top 30 pitcher if he stays in the rotation all year long, you know, based on all of those just stat line scabbings and the success that he's had at every stop, I think there's a lot more that meets the eye for Parker Messick in Cleveland this year. Yeah, I'll give this a spicy meatball, Steve. I think to get all the way to the top 30, it would not

17:42just need to be kind of maintaining the great run prevention from last year, but also volume, which he's not in a bad spot. I mean, he threw between minors and, you know, the brief stent seven starts up in the majors last year. I combined like 140 innings, but to crack the top 30, I mean, you're literally middle of the pack is like an SP three. So he would definitely need to get volume, the, you know, basically not let up from the success we saw last year, but really like the pick and you cannot beat the ADP. The fact that everything you said is for a guy that oftentimes is going like outside of pick 300 extra spice to the take is like you said that we're just not positive that the rotation spot is there, but I love, I love this pick. I'm hoping I get him on my next wrestling pick because he is cute up for me at the top of the list. I sadly missed out on both him and Cody Ponds and the TGFBI where I was wanting one of those two guys. Okay, we will pop

18:48over to my second bold prediction here. I'm kind of going hitter pitcher, hitter pitcher. And Steve, you're not going to believe this one. Hope springs eternal for all my cardinals, nay saying, and specifically Matthew Libertor, having some fun with this one calling Matthew Libertor finishing a top 50 SP. Now for context there, oopsie has him on the projections at 105 at the position. Nick has him at 140 on the list. So I couldn't go as far as you want with Messick on on top 30, but Libertor has not given us much for a guy everyone was excited about. It's been a very mediocre and that's even generous mediocre career so far. But Libertor has been throwing a new splitter this spring, which is kind of being misclassified as a change up, but the change up is kind of the challenge on next right up like we talked about on PL Pro. He talks about how

19:55Libertor really needs a great change up to kind of take a big leap forward and be that South Paul with a tight change up. His current change up wasn't getting the job done. This splitter kind of operates as that. He was on an interview with MLB. He talked about how Treya Savage was kind of his inspiration to work on it through the off season and his curveball has looked, which was always kind of the weapon pitch, but it has looked amazing in spring. So this one has a heavy dose of spring over reaction because in 10 innings Matthew Libertor has 14 strikeouts in just one walk and like a 270 ERA, but it is a name that we've been excited about in the past like the the rays were big on them and of course they did move them, which everybody was kind of concerned about. But I think one thing that I'm also warming up to is if the skills come through for Libertor, I think the opportunity in the situation with the Cardinals is so good that you're going to get

20:57a lot of life from the skill output. Like he is their SP1 for the Cardinals opening day. He's on the bump. So if he's grooving, I see no scenario where he doesn't go like 165, 170 innings, like he's built up a pretty good foundation of volume. So if Libertor can evolve the change up, the fastball velocity is not terrible from the left. It's just the shape is bad. But I again think if that change up splitter, whatever we were calling it is real. I think it could really unlock the whole arsenal with you know the fastball people can't you know they're kind of left guessing with that and then setting up the curve ball to be the wipeout pitch that it's been so far this spring. So Cardinals got a good defense as well. I know I'm the first one to kind of bag on where they're at as an organization or the lineup they're putting out, but whether whole and Mason win in that infield, that's elite defense up the middle. And they've got some you know new bars a good defender. He's

21:59on the on the field. So yeah, I think for this to come true, the line would probably look something like 170 innings, a strikeout per innings or like 170 plus strikeouts. The ERA would have to come down to a career low at like a 3-5 a little bit under that even. And then the whip I think is encouraging because he doesn't walk a lot of guys and the defense is good behind him. So it's a bold one. His ADP is 495, but I've got Libertor for the Cardinals finishing as a top 50 starting pitcher. Thoughts Steve. I like it. I like it. I think this is a mild meatballs as well just with the top 50. You know, hard for me to say it's spicy. You know, I just had a 30, a third, a top 30 finish, you know, that would I think would have. That's a 380 guy though. Sure. Sure, that's fair. That's fair. But I do think that there is some warranted hype around Libertor

23:05given this branch trying to look up some I should have had this, but his velocity numbers in the spring if there's anything else around that. I know that like touch in 95 is what I've seen. Yeah, yeah, which is which is improvement, right? I mean, he was at just 94. So you see he's touched 95 before. So we'll see. I mean, he did sit 94, 9 in 2024 and had slightly better results, at least underlying results, the year prior to this one. So yeah, it's exciting. I mean, you know, we do caution against small samples and spring training, especially spring training, where a lot of the guys are not on teams because they're playing on the world baseball classic. Totally, you know, it's probably more warranted than other years, but that said, strikeouts and walks are sticky. Stuff is sticky in spring training and it's been good for Libertor.

24:14So yeah, there was plenty of reason to like Libertor as a prospect. Like you said, there, you know, this was a guy that was stashed that we were excited about to varying degrees just three or four years ago and it could be put together. And like you said, you know, the Cardinals defense, that ballpark is a great place to pitch. So there could be things that help him outside of just, you know, some of these skills and improvement in the change up and velocity and stuff overall. So yeah, I think it's a good process and definitely I'm interested in Libertor, whereas a few weeks ago, I may not have even had him on my radar at all. Yep, I think it's a radar guy. Like yeah, of the names I have, he's probably the one that's the least like, oh, he's a he's a flag plant this year, but I think just with the opportunity, if and it's a big if some of these spring indicators hold, I just think the opportunity will kind of drive him to surge up boards just because there's

25:19going to be so much volume there. So so that's my second one. We're going to get to Steve's second bold prediction, but we got to take our first ad break. We'll be right back after this. All right, so Steve, we had Parker Messick top 30 starting pitcher. It was a spicy meatball. Let's take us to the next one here. All right. So I'll I'll throw out a hitter now to curious as to what you're going to think about this one, but my take here is that Ben Rice finishes as the top first baseman. Originally, I was going to do something around catcher here. He is catcher eligible in most if not all leagues and he's in NBC. So, you know, he's going to have catcher eligibility and to just put him as like the top catcher, it's that was too easy. It was top five catcher last year. He's being drafted as the second catcher this year. If Ben Rice, who a lot of people love is going to be on a bold prediction take a show, it has to it has to be bold. And that's why I haven't

26:22finishing as the top first baseman in 2026 as a bold prediction. He did finish nine in 2025. So, you know, not that far off if you if you want to get some contacts there. But I mean, what's not to like, like, I guess the only thing that you potentially poke a hole in is is the fact that, you know, maybe there may not be the playing time there versus lefties. But he's still got 119 player appearances versus them last year and, you know, held his own. He was above average hitter at 104 WRC plus. Like, if the Yankees truly want to make a step back to getting back to the World Series and winning the AL as they did two years ago without adding a guy like Tucker or a Soto, they need to have another superstar hitter behind judge and Rice needs to be that guy to take that opportunity. They need to give him that opportunity. Sure, this is wish casting.

27:27But, you know, the underlying metrics say that they should do that, right? You know, the similar batters in 2025, George Springer, who had, you know, the best year of his career outside of like 2019 Kyle Seeger, who, you know, when he's healthy is one of the best servers in the league. Michael Bush, who had an amazing season, Salvador Perez, who continues to match, you know, 30 homers until he's seemingly 50. You know, what do you, what do you want? The bar rate, 90 second percentile, 15.4 percent, hard hit rate, 97 percentile, 56.1 percent. Oh, squared up. Are you getting the most out of the, the, the contact that you make, you know, sometimes guys that barrel the ball suffer on that and, you know, don't have that. Sorry, that quote unquote hit tool. Oh, yeah, he's good at that at 89 percent. Played this one. Yeah, he does that too. He only struck out 19, 19 percent of the time at 65 percentile in the league. He walked 9.4 percent of time, 63 percentile. He doesn't swing and miss that much. Only 21.12 percent with percentage. That's 71 percentile

28:34in the league. Like this guy does everything that a superstar hitter does. And, you know, I don't know if there's a direct quote that the Yankees are going to prioritize getting him at bats first lefties, but I don't think they can't, they, they can afford not to. Like, dude, this guy's swinging strike rate is 8.5 percent. That's minuscule. Like for him to make that contact and still make that, that quality contact and still make contact an 83 percent, 80.3 percent clip. Like, that is unheard of. Like, this guy is so, so good. And like, I think that he could have sort of a Nick Kirtz type season just without maybe the, you know, inflated batting average, right? Like, this guy, like all the whole talk last year was how, you know, in the first half,

29:34how Ben Rice was just lining out, like, these 110 mile an hour lineouts all, all the time. I'm just making this quality contact. Like, I think that, you know, the luck to turn and he could put together a monster, monster season. Yeah. I mean, the bringing in gold Schmidt was a little bit of that. Oh, what are they planning to do? But also like, Stanton has such a hard time staying on the field. So, like, the second he gets an I else that writes a slide right into DH on those rare occasions. And like you said, they might just, I mean, they might have no choice. His production might just force it is a bummer that they brought that gold Schmidt. It is a bummer. Yeah. But all that said and to the bold prediction itself, all of the bad at ball data is, you know, position agnostic, right? It's not like those are sliders based on catchers or anything. I mean, he just looks like one of the best hitters in terms of bad at ball data in the majors. So I'm going to give this one a mild meatball Steve. I thought at first, I might even just give

30:37it a meatball because of playing meatball because first base is kind of there for the taker, like the earliest guys are going pick 18 and Ben Rice is going pick 52. Like, there's not a huge void there. But then when you look at the list, there's still like, you know, Rafi Devers, you know, Matt Olsen, Peter Lonzo, Vlad, like he would have to jump some, some proven regular performers to be number one. But yeah, I mean, I think Ben Rice is such a target. I have not been one of the people who is like, oh, it's gone too far. Like now that it's, because where's his ADP? I want to look at the trend real quick. So like in all drafts, it's been 52. Oh, so it is somewhat like tailing off. Yeah, I think the Goldchmann news is a bit of a bummer. That makes sense. Yeah. But his min pick this season is like 25. 25. Yeah.

31:37But I mean, I still, like, if you do want to wish cast here, like, okay, yeah, you want to get Goldchmann in playing at first base versus lefties, Stanton also should D H versus lefties, if and when he's healthy. But like every other catcher on the Yankees lineup, Wells, JC Scara are lefties too. Like, play Rice, you know, versus lefties, not Wells. Like, have him be the catcher on on days that they face lefties. And sure, yeah, okay, you want to sit them on the days that they face extremely hard lefties. But, you know, if the Yankees are truly, you know, really want like a top five of the lineup that top five, top six, that is a serious contender. Like that lineup includes judge, Belinger, a healthy Stanton, jazz, and rice.

32:38Yeah, I totally agree. Okay, so that's a good one. I'll finally answer on that is mild meatball there because I think it's still got a little bit of a little bit of heat, but there's, it's not as bold as like Parker Messick being top 30. Okay, so zip and back to my third one. I'm back on the hitter side. You know, there's probably a meatball joke in here, but Jake Berger is a name different type of ground beef. Yeah, along with the theme of Wyatt Langford. First of all, I did not have on my bingo card. I'd be talking about two Texas Rangers hitters, but Berger is just a name that I've heard so little of this whole offseason. And I think we do that as an industry where it's like we kind of just pass over names and and tend to get excited about similar guys. So for good reason, Berger is as kind of, you know, he's 29 years old. He was kind of boring production even two

33:38years ago and three years ago when he was productive for the Marlins. He had back-to-back seasons with around 31 homers, 250 average. And then last year, we only saw 103 games for Jake Berger as first year with the Rangers, 16 homers, a 236 average, a 68 OPS. So definitely underwhelming. I think around this time last year, Berger was going in like the 115 120 range. Don't quote me on that. But now his ADP is 243. He is the 22nd first baseman being drafted. And my prediction here is that Berger bounces back and finishes top 10 at the position. So not not saying top five. I mean, it's a top heavy lineup. I think there's a batting average ceiling with Berger. Obviously, there's no speed to account for. But this guy basically was just injury riddled last year. He had an oblique injury, again, hamstring, wrist sprain. And he still had 16 homers and a 14% barrel rate. So

34:45he had to work through all of these challenges, a lot like Langford, to be honest. But I don't think that the hitter is all that different. He's 29 years old. So he's still kind of in that power prime. And again, we really got used to Jake Berger being like a bankable 30 homer guy. I don't know why that would have changed. The only thing that's really changed is he's not on the Marlins anymore. He's still, I mean, I know last year we had him with the Rangers, but it was kind of a wash of a season. But him hitting cleanup with Brandon Nimble leading off, Wyatt Langford hitting second, Cory Seeger hitting third. I think there's a lot of opportunity where Berger could eclipse 100 RBI's and then some. So I think if he can stay on the field, obviously he did have all those injuries last year. I think we could see like a 255, maybe 260 with some Babib luck, 35 homers, 100 RBI's, 70 runs. Like I don't think that's outside of the realm. And I think

35:46that would be enough to get him as a top 10 first base. So I think he's a really good corner in field option or just a parachute if you missed out at first. And in spring kind of, you know, don't overreact, but three homers so far, 1086 OPS. So I think we're maybe dismissing Jake Berger just because it's not a name with a ton of sizzle, but how many more Berger jokes can we make here? Steve, what kind of a meatball take on this? And have you thought twice at all about Jake Berger this all season? This is a solid mild meatball smash Berger, Jake Berger take. Okay. Okay. I think you're you're you're reasoning a sound though. You know, despite the surface numbers that lacked last year and all the injuries, there was some improvement in other hood. He reduced his strikeout rate. He increased his heart rate. He barrelled the ball more than he did in 2024. And he was, you know, like you said, a valuable first baseman corner in field,

36:51they're in 2024 with the Marlins. There was some weird stuff going on with Glowplight or whatever the, you know, whatever the Rangers ballpark is now. Like it played super, super picture friendly last year. I think there were some rumors that like a garage door was left open that like messed with the wind. Like I heard a few people talking about, I think it was you know, on rates and barrels or something like that. So some strange strange stuff that went on, but it played super, super picture friendly. And, you know, to sort of double back to those bad ball metrics. Like, yeah, he he looks like what Jake Berger does. Like a high high K high barrel high hard hit guy that should hit a bunch of homers. But I think that maybe where the injury manifested at least when he was on the field was that pull air percentage from 2022 to 2024. He had a 20% pillow air

37:53percentage or better, which was good. It was 22.2% in 2023 when he did hit the 34 homers. Last year it was just 13.5%, which is not good. That's, you know, lower the quarter of the league as far as pull air percentage. And this is a guy that, you know, hits the ball hard, you know, has swing and miss. Like you want him to be pulling his fly balls when he makes contact. That's how he's going to get the most out of it. And that just did not happen. Like you can even see like his spray chart where his home runs were. If you look at 2024, there are all these homers to left field that where he pulled the ball. You know, most of his homers in 2025 were to like almost like left center. Like the deepest part of the park. So, you know, he was just lacking on that pulling that that last piece of pulling that that fly ball to make it be a homerun and it manifests in his, you know, lowest homerun to fly ball ratio of his career and dropped from 25%

38:59in 2023 to 18% in 2024. And then it was just 13.6%. Like a guy that hits the ball as hard as he does and barrels the ball and, you know, is trying to hit these homers shouldn't have a homerun to fly ball but rate that low. And if he is able to pull the fly, pull his fly balls again like he has demonstrated in the past that he can. Yeah, I don't think a high 20s low 30s homer total is out of the question for burger. And if that is the case, you know, he, like you said, first base is getable. He should be a top 10 first base man if that happens. Yeah, yeah. So, I'm still getting the mild mild ball. Yeah, yeah, yeah, mild. Okay. So, yeah, that would just for context, he would have to edge out somebody like a Vinnie P. Yeah, Tyler Soderstrum, Freddie Freeman, Josh Nailers, like eight at the position. So, um, some big names out of the question, but yeah, it would be notable for sure. All right, Steve, head us with your third here. We had a pitcher, header, where are we going next?

40:04Another Texas Ranger dude. This is a Texas Ranger themed bull prediction. Oh my gosh. Oh my gosh. Did not plan this. We did not, you know, we know we were going to run down together but did not do this at the same time. Um, my take is that Jack Lider finally breaks out and finishes as a top 20 starting pitcher. Um, he's currently 90 second on the list. Um, I know there's command concerns and it's been, we've been, I feel like Jack Lider has been a bull takeer guy that I've wish casted on for for three years now. But I think it went sort of under the radar. How good this guy was in the second half. Like we finally saw the pitcher that the stuff said he can be in the second half. Um, he had a 26.3% strikeout rate at 9.7% walk rate and 71 innings pitched. That led to a 320 80 or eight of 119 width. Like if he does that over a full season with the amount of, with that amount of strikeouts and could get to, you know, 150, 160 innings, um, he very well could

41:10be a top 20 starting pitcher. Um, that strikeout minus walk was 18th among starting pitchers with 70 innings pitched in the second half. So, you know, he sort of was one for the second half last year. So he added a change in July of 2025, uh, 108 stuff plus, I know stuff plus is not the question with Jack Lider. He'll pop on all of those models. Um, but he's able to throw it to lefties. Finally converted that stuff into whiffs, right? Because despite all this stuff, he had just a 17.9% strikeout rate in 2024. Overall, 2025 was still, quote unquote, just 23%, which, you know, for a guy that throws as hard as he does that has the stuff that made him, you know, a second overall pick and a guy that people, the prospect community was drooling over that was fast track through the minors. That a 23% strike rate is a little bit disappointing.

42:11So, you know, it looked like the swing and miss came together in the second half and on that change up, he had a 32% whiff percentage, a 25.7% put away percentage, and he also had a 57% ground ball percentage with that change up, um, uh, league average for context is 50%. You know, he has all the tools. It's a matter of command, location, putting it all together. I know the walk rate was still probably a little bit elevated, but like, guys like this, when they figure it out, can't put it together and go on runs for a long time, like ceases the guy that comes to mind that is a, is a comp for me. Um, you know, there's guys that can run these higher walk rates, but, you know, if they, if he can finally convert that bit of stuff into more swing and miss, um, I think he'll be able to have a really, really strong season, um, and maybe get that swing strike rate up to, you know, the 13, 14% from rather than the,

43:14you know, 10% they was at on the whole last year, um, and become a true ace starting pitcher. Um, you know, I know there's still a lot of questions. That's why this is bold, but I'm willing to, which my, hit my wagon to Jack Leiter one more time, at least. Yeah. Yeah. 25 years old. I mean, it's, especially for pitchers, the whole prospect growth isn't linear. It's like the G. Alito comes to mind for me. Steve is like someone that we felt like we were always waiting on. And then suddenly he, he turned into basically an ace for, for a while there. And Leiter, I think, Corbin Burns, he was super erratic. Yeah, he had like a six plus ERA before he, he went nuts there. But, um, yeah, Leiter, I think in general, like the, the price is right. I love this pick. This is definitely a spicy meatball to say, uh, top 20 SP, but I really like it because I think the CS comp is perfect that you, he would have to get a little bit. He needs to get like

44:16CC and strikeout rates, right? Like CS could live around the 30%. Like Leiter, like he has the stuff to get there. He needs to actually demonstrate that, but he did a little bit in the second half for both of his double digit strikeout games for what it's worth. I mean, they all count, but both of them were against the Guardian. They were a handful of like game log ones in their area. Like three Ks or four Ks. So, you know, he has to, he has to prove it for sure. But, um, he is one that I'm curious. Like what we've seen just because, you know, you can't make much of the spring training stuff, but sometimes for, uh, yeah, it's, it's not, it's not a question mark. It's nothing that makes you super, super. Yeah, strike, strikeout per inning, but only, yeah, so three walks in 12 innings. I guess it's a slight improvement though. Yeah, I like Leiter. I grabbed him in Razzlam on like my last pick. So I like this one. Um, and yeah, that ADP overall is, where are we at?

45:16Uh, I think he's like what? Two 50s? Yeah, two 51. You can tell it's draft season. Um, all right. That's a good one, Steve. I will, uh, bounce back over here. We had Jake Berger. So it's back to pitchers, but that's my super tease cliffhanger because we're going to take our second ad break. We'll be right back after this. All right. So Steve, I'm going, uh, this is not a Texas ranger, and I am going back to pitchers, but this is a relief pitcher. And one that I grabbed in TGFBI that you and I have not spoken about, but Griffin jacks will be a top 10 closer and eclipse 30 saves for the race. Uh, for context, he is the 24th relief pitcher off the board right now. Uh, ADP is 210 and NFBC, 250 and Yahoo leagues. Uh, but jacks is a guy that I feel like both you and I have liked over the years, like when he was just like a lights out ratio stabilizer for the twins. And it was

46:20always like, oh, you know, if Durand gets injured and jacks is kind of like filling in, we were rushing to try to grab him, but he's just seemed like one of the most talented setup guys in all of the bigs for a long time. And now he has runway with the rays, which I know they tend to kind of do closer by committee, which isn't great for, uh, that's part of why this uh, 30 saves is maybe the bold part of this because jacks is so good with his ratios that you expect will be productive regardless. But um, last year, if you're just looking like back at the baseball card, don't overreact because he had a four four 23 ERA and a 129 whip, but that was with the 368 Babip, uh, his projections this year. Everyone's kind of giving that a free pass last year. It's just kind of bad luck. Oopsy has him this year at a 245 ERA and a 105 whip. Again, they've been most accurate on projecting out ratios. Uh, and in 2024, jacks had a 203 ERA and a 0.87 whip.

47:26Um, he sits 97 miles per hour elite sweeper, elite change up, uh, to have a guy that has both of those, like two elite secondaries is so rare. Uh, pitching in the top, I always like when pictures go to Tampa, they've obviously have a proven track record of, uh, doing a lot of good things with pictures. So yeah, I just look at the closer landscape and jacks is one that I would love to leave almost any, any draft with. So I wanted to do a bold prediction around them. Maybe top 10 isn't bold enough, but the hard part is, I think he does have, uh, uh, upside ceiling because I don't see him getting 40 saves, which probably four or five other closers will, will be up around that mark. So yeah, talk to me about jacks, Steve. Uh, we have not talked about him this off season. Uh, but heck of a pitcher and has a pretty, pretty great opportunity with Tampa this year. Yeah, I like this man. Um, I know that you hinted at the raise being, um, you know, guys that like to miss it,

48:31mix and match and their pen and closers, but I think there's sort of reputation precedes them on that like Pete Fairbanks has had 20 saves, uh, 20, at least 23 saves each of the last three years. He said 23, 25, 27. The reason why some slaves got tossed around is because he only pitched 45 innings in 23 and 24. Um, and you know, the raise weren't that good overall last year, right? They only won 77 games. So, um, he's still, yeah, Pepeo bounce back like, yeah, the team should be a little better. Yeah, yeah. But long story short, like, I think they, they have, if jacks is the, like, I don't think that they won't give jacks the job is what I'm saying. I don't think that they'll say they need to, you know, mix and match on the back end, like if jacks is their closer, I think jacks could be their closer. Like, they're not just going to throw around random saves,

49:31because I don't think they'll play the match. Like, I think they have set bullpen rolls more than people think and jacks could be that. I know jacks has been more of a multi inning guy, maybe than others. And he has had, you know, higher workloads and, and, you know, started back in 2022 and through, you know, 70 innings back in 22 and 24 as well. But, uh, you know, I think that he could take this job and run with it. So I think it's a good call. And I don't see why I don't think that, you know, he'll be coming in the seventh just because, you know, that's when the top of the order comes up. I think, you know, maybe there'll be situations like that, but they'll be fueeing far between at the key. Like I have him projected as the closer. I would project him as the closer for the race. Yeah, there were some mentions of like closer committee with Garrett Clevenger. Yeah. When you see that, but like, jacks is just, you see, you see this hurt, like,

50:37and that's what managers always say. They always, like, no matter what, like, unless you have Mariana Rivera, like they're going to say, like, you know, it'll be a committee. Like, and action speak louder than words, like, Kevin Cash's actions have been Pete Fairbanks in the ninth, the last few and angst fletched last year. I don't see why Griffin jacks won. I'll give this a, I'll give this a spicy meatball just because, you know, he hasn't been named the closer. You know, top 10, there's there's guys that have well-established roles. And, you know, a solid top eight or so that that'll be hard to break. So there's some narrow pathway there, but I'll give it a spicy one, despite the fact that I believe. Hey, I appreciate that. Very nice, very nice. Okay. So that brings us to number four for you, Steve. What do we got? All right. Curious your thoughts on this one as well. Kevin McGonicle wins

51:38AL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, I know that he's probably second or third in most odds and sports books and these plus 600. I'm not to get into gambling terms or anything like that, not that we are, I just want to give that for context as far as like applied probability. That plus 600 is like a 14.29 percent implied probability. So close to that 10 percent mark of actually happening. And I think part of the reason why this is a spicy take is because he's being overshadowed by Connor Griffin. You know, Griffin has all the raw tools. He's being drafted 100 picks essentially higher than McGonicle. But I honestly think that McGonicle is the more polished and more majorly ready prospect. You know, he's been super impressive this spring is a 10s 54 OPS that doesn't

52:38include the home run that he hit against team against the DR, I believe, in an exhibition game that they can count as spring training stats. You know, this guy's strikeout and walk ratios are just eye popping throughout the minors. He struck out 3 percent less than he walked last year. 11.6 percent strike out rating the minors 14.9 percent strike out walk rate and last year across three levels from low A to double A. That's ported over in the spring and that's one thing that you can look at is strike out and walk. It's just a 17 percent strike out rating is 17 percent walk rate. So that's coming through. And then he's a guy that gets the most out of his his five balls. He pulls his five balls. Yeah, the quality contact is an elite or anything close to like Connor Griffin, but it's still above average. And you know, that's why he was able to pop 19 homers and 88 games and 397 played appearances in the minors last year. This guy is just

53:44like this is my favorite type of prospect like this hit tool, but hits for power. You know, doesn't strike out walks. You know, the Tigers are in the last year of a school bull contract. Like they have no reason not to start this guy from day one, especially with the incentives to win worth of the year, especially with the fact that the other most talented rookies and the other league, right? And just how good this guy has been played skill wise. You know, he's 20 years old. I would be I would be pretty surprised if they send down. You see a lot of big prospects now being sent down like George Lombard Jr. for the Yankees who's a great prospect in zone right, got sent down like the guys who the Spencer Jones recently this week got sent down. The guys who aren't going to make the roster are being sent down like these other guys are hanging in there. I think they have much more of a shot to actually make the team. And I think Kevin

54:44McGonagall will make the team and we'll win rookie of the year in the A.L. this year. Okay. I mean, it's a compelling case. I think because it's such a compelling case and like you said, Steve, that the hitter, like this is the lab hitter, right? Yeah. Yeah, you'd want a little bit more pop and quality of contact. Like you mentioned, but like the plate skills, just the window that the Tigers have like there's so much that's pointing in this this direction and all the incentives, right? Like it sounds like April 9th is where that cutoff is of if they call them up in time for that. And he wins rookie of the year. They get that extra draft pick. So like, even if he doesn't break camp, will it be their 10th game of the season where he gets the call? Yeah, maybe we've seen some different clubs doing. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I mean, I like I mean, I'll give it I like for how you pulled the percentage out from the odds, but because he's such

55:45that yeah, I've got to go mild. I got to go mild meatball here, but I don't think it's a plain meatball because it's still, you know, we don't know. He is on roster resource as a lead off hitter at short stuff. I mean, to see who who's not playing then, you know, I know like hover your bias. I think, yeah, McKinstree. McKinstree, they still have McKinstree D.H.ing, verse, right? He's like, if you go to the platoon split lineup, yeah, McKinstree played short 40 games last year for them. Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, I mean, just for the good of baseball, they got to do this. And I think, uh, this is what these rules were for, right? For for Kevin McGonical and for Connor Griffin, the break camp, that that's what the intentions were, right? Yeah. Yeah. And he is one that while we're talking about him, we should look at, so his ADP is definitely on the rise. Yeah. So it was like, uh, let's go back to mid-January as ADP was

56:48to 88. And it had, but it still hasn't gone up that much. So like, two 59. Yeah. Yeah, it looks like his min picks are in like the one 40. One 14 was dude, one 14 was his min pick. Somebody recently sent that. Yeah. Yeah. Um, I think in my, I don't have it right in front of me, but I believe he went around like pick one 40. Oh, wow. That's pretty early. That's pretty right. TGFBI. Yeah. And a lot of that is redraft leagues now, right? Like in draft and holds, you're, you prioritize and playing time and you didn't have his spring numbers of him performing, you didn't have him sticking around in camp for as long as he has, um, right? And you know, when you can do weekly moves, you could, even if he is sent down, you could still manage that for a little bit. Whereas in draft and hold, just kind of behind an eight ball already. So maybe, yeah, maybe a little, he went in the midlate of the 10th round in a 15 team. So yeah,

57:49let's just about, yeah, one forward in 145 or something like that. Yeah. Um, great name, though. And I like the bold prediction. Um, okay. So jumping back over this my fifth and final, and this one, we, we maybe don't have to spend as much time because we've been talking about Yuri Perez. Steve, I know he is on your TGFBI roster as your SB2. I'm extremely jealous. This prediction is Yuri Perez wins and Elsa Young. Um, he is a, a deeper odds target than McGonagall. He is 40 to one in Vegas to win this. But, um, yeah, honestly, Paul Schienz is the obvious contender that, you know, something would have to happen that we would never wish either production or health, whatever it is. But after that, it kind of opens up to that big tier that we talk about where it's like, okay, there's Christopher Sanchez, there's Chris Sale, there's Yamamoto. But I just, I've got this feeling with Yuri. And I think a lot of us have it

58:51that like between the, uh, the TJ honeymoon, uh, coming back from Tommy John, spring training, he's looked excellent. He's a guy that like when he's looked healthy on the mound, he's had stretches where he just looks like an out and out ace. And then he struggled a little bit and then he got through on the other side of it, even last year, um, when he came back. So the fastball is so, so good. At like 98, uh, the slider change combo is great. I know what Nick's talked about is that the changeup has to be located a little bit better that like it actually had good whiffs. But a lot of times it was in the dirt. Um, so there's a little bit of like a command question mark if he really wants to take the next level. But Nick endorses him. He says, you know, even even with the challenges he had last year, his ADP is a great price for like it's already baked in. But the if in terms of like this phenomenal pitcher who's still 22 years old, six foot eight, like talk about building

59:54the guy in a lab like Yuri Perez, I would be shocked if he didn't take a step forward just from a development standpoint. Like I think he's that good, that young with health on his side that he's maybe of all pitcher names and like the top 40, the safest bet in my mind to say this is the guy who will take some kind of step forward. It's just will it be a big enough step forward with the Marlins? Uh, because Sai Young's typically are on pretty winning teams. Um, and obviously, you know, he's it would be unlikely for Perez to have like a 15 win season or something. But I really just think he's going to have a phenomenal year. And uh, we'll look back at this is like, oh man, you could get Yuri Perez at pick 100 that year. Um, I, I, I love the pick. I'm jealous. I got FOMO that you got him, Steve. And um, yeah, I wanted to do a bold prediction for him when in Sai Young. Yeah, this is a spicy meatball. Um, despite the fact that I love Yuri Perez, but it's just the the odds say it's a 2.38% probability. So yeah, uh, it's a long shot. I mean, that's not

1:01:00that's partially due because of schemes. Like you said, um, but like if there's a guy that could do it, like, it's got to be Yuri, right? I love guys coming off the second, the back, the second year after Tommy John, I think that first year, like you saw it with his teammate now, Sandy Alcantara struggled. There's, you know, him, Blackshear, not looking right for long stretches. And then the end of the season sort of figuring it out, um, right? If the stuff doesn't come back right away, it could be the location. If the location comes back right away, it could be the stuff. Like it, it takes a bit. And I forget who we, who we meant, we've mentioned this on shows before, but Lucas Geolitos talked about like how, and Trevor May talked about how not only is it hard coming back from surgery because you're not throwing, but like the way that you come back and the habits that you make while you're doing what you can do, you know, when you're throwing not off a mound, right? Your body's getting used to that. Then, you know, you're throwing in

1:02:03relaxed game situations. Your body's getting used to that. Then you're throwing only certain pitches in game situations. Your body's getting used to that. Like it takes time to get back into the groove of being a high level starting pitcher for any skill. You know, it just, you know, compounds when the guys has this much talent, I would think. But yeah, I think Yuri is, is due for a great, great season. Like all the, like the projections are just like the, like the highest innings projection is that 154. Like dude, like, you know, yes, he does not have a high innings total in his professional career. But that's just because he was injured, right? Like he's ready. Like he had 90, 115 innings last year. Like he should be good for a mostly full workload. And, you know, it's at the point where the maras need to sort of let him eat and become this, you know, stud

1:03:05starting pitcher that that that that they should have in the waiting for him. So yeah, all the tools in the world, I think the situation is right. It's a great ballpark. Like despite the fact that there was some struggles last year, you know, it still was a 105 whip, a 380 Sierra, a 27% strike area in just 8.3% walk rate. Like that's sort of the floor in my mind. And there were some, you know, indicators there, like a 65% left on base percentage. It was getting pretty unlucky, you know, the 13.3%. So in strike rate is impressive. You know, I think that the, there is really no upper bound for Yuri. And I could envision winning several signings as a career and don't see why this year can't, it can't happen. Yeah. And it feels like if you're, if Yuri's like firing on all cylinders, I don't know if you share this notion, but I feel like it'll be noisy. Like people love to watch. Yeah. Yeah. Big cross. It'll be skiing's like he'll be much watch TV.

1:04:11Like that's exactly the style. So I think even even if he gets capped at, you know, whatever, 155 innings, if those are like elite innings, I think people will be like, well, it's not hold it against him. He's already on the Marlins. Like I think I could see it happening. And yeah, I'm just excited that he's healthy baseball is better when we have pitchers like that that just feel like they can ascend and take the lead by storm. So yeah, love it with Yuri. Steve, your fifth and final bold prediction. Yeah. I'm not a, not a player, maybe not as fantasy relevant, but there was quite a few guys that I like on this team. So that's why I went with this one. My prediction is that the Reds win the NL Central. They're currently projected for fourth and 83 wins on fan graphs. They have a 16.6% implied odds by the sportsbook, but there's just a lot of players to like. I really like the Ellie Bill Cruz bounce back. I think TJ Stats did a

1:05:12a side-by-side breakdown of his underlying metrics and stack cast metrics, pre-injury, and then post-injury, and you just saw a complete drop-off. You know, in that first half, he was sort of putting together what could have been an MVP type season with the 284, 359, 495, slash line in the first half. He reduced that strikeout rate, you know, exactly what you wanted to see from Ellie, and then those injuries sort of caught up to him, right? He had, in the first half, he had 18 homers and 25 steals, like pacing for, you know, a 36-50 season. You know, not the 20-70, whatever season that he had the year before, 60-steel season, but, you know, the power looked like it was coming together, and then all those injuries sort of

1:06:15sapped not only his speed, but that power, too. You know, I also think that South Stewart, who's on everyone else's bold prediction list is a guy that, you know, I like a lot, legit power, you know, had a hit-tool first sort of Kevin McGonical-esque or light as far as the hit-tool in the minors, and then sort of added this power late and became a late bloomer as a prospect, you know, in this cup of coffee, hit five homers, struck out only 18% of the time, had a great hard hit rate, like, you know, their lineup could look really, really good if those guys stay healthy and take next steps. And then in the rotation, yes, I know actually when I wrote this, it wasn't official that Hunter Green was going to miss as much time as he has, but there's still guys to like, like, Nick Lidolio, like, quietly had a breakout season last year. Chase Burns is one of the most exciting, you know, Yuri Perez-esque pitching prospects, you know, they have guys that,

1:07:25you know, break some models and Brady Singer and Andrew Abbott can give you solid innings, you know, Latter also had his day as a prospect, and looks like he can be a backend of the rotation, contributor. There's a lot to like with the Reds, Swares, right? Even Honey or Swares, coming back, Matt McLean's hitting 600 in spring, you know, Noel V. Marta, he put together a solid year, like, and that division's gettable. I know the Cubs have a good lineup and should be good again, but, you know, I don't know, I'm not as big of a believer in the Cubs lineup, especially Sans Kyle Tucker, and considering that that park and play extremely pitcher friendly at times, that I can see the Reds taking a leap as a team and winning that division with, you know, 88 to 90-ish

1:08:26wins. I totally agree. I originally was going to give this a plain meatball, Steve, because I've been thinking the same thing, but just the the staff is exciting. I think even like down the roster, like I think Spencer Steer is a good bounce back candidate. Like I grabbed him for just kind of boring offense help, but like there's a case to be made there, and you you mentioned a lot of the bats that are exciting, a Haney will coming back, McLean looks right, Ellie bounce back, Noel V's upside, Sal Stewart, like, Freedle's kind of a good little need of Brandon Nemo, like yeah, so I like it all, but I do think with Hunter Green being out till July, I'm going to upgrade it to a mild meatball, but I do think that the division is gettable. Like I think, like you said, the the Cubs without Tucker is a little bit different, and I think that, you know, the Brewers are the the other one. I mean, I guess the pirates are getting better and better, but

1:09:29you know, even with the Brewers, it's like, I know Tarrang is taking a step forward, but to me, that lineup doesn't give me nightmares of like William Contreras, Yellech is the 3-4, Sal Freelik is the 5, and in the rotation, they have some question marks, right? Like if Woodruff, can he repeat the unthinkable that he did, that he pulled off last year, and then you have Chad Patrick as your third pitcher for the Brewers? So yeah, it's going to be a really interesting division in general, minus the fact that we know the Cardinals will finish, finish last in there, but like, I think if you have the odds pulled up, I'd be curious to hear, again, not a betting show, but just hear where they have the Brewers, Pirates, and Cubs on that as well, because, you know, that I feel like Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler alongside Paul Schienz makes the Pirates kind of an interesting one for this as well, but I guess they're off as well. So I'm looking at the,

1:10:29you know, we'll stick with the fangrass playoff odds rather than, okay, give any more shots there. So to win the vision, the Cubs are at 44%, the Pirates are second at 25.6%, Brewers third at 20.6, and then they have their reds at just 6.2%. So they're even less than than what the odds makers are. So yeah, for based on the fangrass projections, this would definitely be a spicy meatball, and then your Cardinals come in, and just 3.4% projected for 75.3 wins. Sure thing. Yeah, but the Cubs rotate, I mean, a good lineup, but the rotation isn't, you know, for 35-year-old Matthew Boyd, who I know is kind of defied underlying stuff, but and Emanager could have a bounce back, but it's just not like, you know, Edward Cabrera, it's like, we don't know what version we're going to get there. So yeah, I think the division's open, and I think the reds have a lot of promise. It's a bummer on the Hunter Green thing, for sure. I'll be back in July.

1:11:36You know, you'll still get him for three months of the season. So all right, well that is five and five for us, Steve. Blast doing this, as always, I know we used to do the full articles, but it feels like we did a thorough one here. Is there any, is there anyone you'd want to like flag plant and say, of my five, this is the one that I, I think is most like, yeah, if I had a pick one, yeah. It might be my least bold one, but the, the canonical ones, the one I feel the best about, like, okay, I think that guy is going to be a stud and a stud very quickly. Okay, what about, what about you? Yeah. It's one of the, like, they're not too, too spicy. I mean, I guess you get the griffin jacks on some, some spice, but there's something about the Jake Burger one that's interesting to me, just because I feel like it's, it's just not the, I think I put it in the rundown. I didn't

1:12:39mention it that like, this is the modern day sleeper. Like, this is the formula. The, the, the old formula used to be to look at these eye popping under the hoods. Yeah. Now everyone sees it. So you have to find value in different ways. I think burger is definitely like the fact that he's just 29. I, I think he's the exact same header as he was. He's just going 125 picks later. It would take some stuff for him to become top 10, but I'll pick that one. I think that you could find sleepers and undervalued guys differently now because of recency bias. Like, it's so much what have you done for me lately and so much, you know, we get bat speed data. The second a guy takes a swing and are making snap decisions based on that. And it does help. And it is a useful tool. And it does make us more informed, more educated and better players and analysts. But there's also

1:13:41many more snap judgments and quick to dismiss players based on one bad year, whereas, you know, maybe in the past, we've been more patient as as an industry and as fantasy players. So I think that's a good call. Yeah. Love it. All right. Well, for everybody joining us and enjoy next week of draft season, I know Steve, my, my home league draft is a week from this Sunday. So I'm very excited counting down the days. When's, when's your home, Leager? We're next Saturday. We come Saturday. So we're the 20th. So yeah, yeah, you'll have to get the lowdown from man before you head into your, your warm room there with the goodness club. Yeah, man. I cannot wait. All right. Everybody, thank you. We are back on weekly. So we'll talk to you next week. But that wraps us up for episode 206, bold predictions. Thanks for talking baseball. Thanks for listening, guys. Enjoy your drafts.