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Dustin Swedelson shares his best bets.
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The VSiN Daily: Morning Bets — VSiN Daily Morning Bets | March 5, 2026. Machine-transcribed; use the interactive transcript above to jump the player to any line.
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On the other side, Dan Garriott is 11 and 3 to the under when the totals in the 140s. We're already seeing this number drop. It opened 150, 147 and a half, 151 down to 147 and a half. So a big move there. We're a little bit late as this thing came up while we were on the air, but I still like the under at 147 and a half. Sacred Heart is the better offense between the two. Iona is the better defense between the two and I think the defense ends up pulling away here and controls this game. Makes it a lower possession, lower scoring contest. Give me under 147 and a half. It was 148 when I wrote it down earlier, but I didn't bet it to 147 and a half. So we're going to be honest here under 147 and a half. The next thing we're going to look at, we're going to go to St. Thomas as they take on South Dakota State in the Summit League quarter finals. And this game is being played neutral, Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The under is where I want to look in this contest at 149 and a half. And there's a 150 and a half at season. We're going to go
under 150 and a half. I'll bet that as we've got St. Thomas, the favorite in the league, laying five in a hook right now in this contest. South Dakota State, six and two against the spread and their meetings going back to 2023. The under in these matchups between the jackrabbits and the Tommy's is on a six and three to the under run. Brian Peterson, the head coach, South Dakota State, six and three to the under as a dog. St. Thomas's John Tanner, eight and one to the under in the month of March, seven and three to the under on a neutral as a favorite or a pick them. Give me the under all day long in South Dakota State and St. Thomas in their matchup in the Summit League quarter finals. We're now going to go to a team that I actually enjoy when they make the dance because their head coach plays a fast, analytically driven offense that scores a lot of threes. And that would be cold gate. So right now you got cold gate. I want to get you the updated number here, laying six and a half against Loyola of Maryland. Totals 151 and a half. The totals one I'm going to look at here. Coldgate comes into this game 64th in the nation from beyond the arc. They can stroke it every single
year. That's what Matt Langel does. The head coach, Colgate. He's 64 and 51 to the over at home. This game in the Patriot League quarter finals is being played on campus at Colgate. And then Loyola's Josh Leffler, three and oh to the over in the month of March. Their matchups between these two squads over is on an eight and one run 13 and three going back to 2016. Give me over 151 and a half with Loyola Maryland taking on cold gate. And I believe that'll do it for us in these smaller games in terms of our bets. Let's now go to the big boys. And apparently I'm on an underkick right now. As Michigan goes to Iowa Wolverine's laying eight and a half total 146 and a hook. I'm on the under 146 and a hook here. You know, Michigan comes in having one their last two versus Minnesota at Illinois on Friday. I was lost four of six. And if I was going to hang in this game and I believe Ben McCollum believes he can contend with anyone, even though he doesn't have the talent or the depth that Michigan has, in order to do that, you're going to have to slow the game down. And that's what Iowa does. They're 358th in pace
in the in the nation. They're pretty good offensively. They're efficient. But that doesn't mean that they want to get up and go. Michigan can defend number two in adjusted defensive efficiency. And I think the under is the way we look at this game as Dusty May comes into this one. Three and one to the under as a road favorite of six and a half to 12. He's only one in three covering at six and a half to 12 on the point spread. So I think about Iowa catching the points on top of that. Ben McCollum, oh and two against spread as a home dog with Iowa one and one over under in that role. He is 12 and eight to the under though when the total is in the 140. So give me the under 146 and a half with Michigan going to Iowa. We got Rutgers going to number eight Michigan state. Last time they played Sparty won 88 79 kind of a high scoring affair. Rutgers is three and two straight up their last five. Sparty comes in winners of four in a row off winds at Indiana and Purdue. So quite a run for them the last week here. Michigan's defense to me at home. They always dictate the style of fight. That's what I always want to lean on. It's not
official play for me just yet. As Michigan states laying 19 and a half the totals 140 and a half. But I lean under in this one. If you look back at Tom is oh this is what he does. He is 158 and 111 to the under when the totals in the 140s. He is 158 and 113 against the spread when the total is in the 140s. He's 72 and 44 against spread against teams that average less than 12 assists per game, which is Rutgers. And then Steve Pikiel the head coach for Rutgers 16 and 10 to the under off of a road win. I lean under here, but I don't know if I want to touch this. I was on the under last time in the game went way or over the total. So I've been burnt by them before, but I do think the under ends up being the right side in that matchup. You got South Florida in the American go into Memphis and we talked about it with restaurants earlier in the show. Penny Hardaway's days might be number with Memphis, which is was just crazy because of the start he got off to with the recruiting he did. But things have really shifted the last couple years for the Tigers. South Florida is a five and a half to six and a half point road favorite.
Your total is once anyone from 159 and a half up to 160 and a half. So make sure you get the best number here. South Florida won the last meeting and it was 87 to 70 or 87 to 66 and that game was played at South Florida. USF comes in on a seven game win streak. Memphis is on a six game losing streak. And if it wasn't for those winning streaks, I think about laying the five and a half with South Florida on the road. They are just a superior team in every way. Memphis does not have much of an offense. South Florida has a suffocating defense and a pretty serviceable offense here. But instead, I'm going to look to the total. We're going to go under 160 and a half here because Brian Hodgson, the head coach for the Bulls, he is three and one against the spread as a road favorite of six and a half to 12. Penny Hardaway, eight and two to the under as a home dog. And if they have any chance of hanging in this game, it's like Iowa making it a slower, lower possession game, giving me the under 160 in South, a 60 and a half in South Florida and Memphis. So that'll do
it for college basketball. Now, let's look at the NBA as we have a pretty solid slate coming up on Thursday with the action. And I have a few plays in this Pistons in San Antonio game, Spurs Lane three and a half at home, totals 227 and a half. I kind of like the Spurs Lane, the number, but I'm going to stay away from the side there. Instead, I'm going to look at a few player props. One, we are going to be on the Aaron Fox under 25 and a half points rebounds and assists combined. Detroit allows the seventh fewest points, fourth fewest assists to point guards, and he went way under this number the last time these two teams met. We're also going to be on the under for Tobias Harris, 20 and a half points rebounds and assists. You got San Antonio in this matchup, allowing the ninth fewest points, seventh fewest rebounds to opposing power forwards. I think it's going to be a tough match up for Tobias Harris. He's going to be very limited anytime he is trying to be on the block, down low, near Wemba Nyama. It's just not a good match up for him. And then the last play in this game, we're going to go over on Jalen Durin 30 and a half points
rebounds and assists. San Antonio gives up a lot of assists, the most centers in the league. He only had one last time they faced. I anticipate probably three in this one, four maybe even for Durin. Honestly that high. He had five and seven against them a year ago, I believe, but he was awesome against them in the last meeting. He is not scared of Wemba Nyama over 30 and a half PRA on Jalen Durin. I also like a manual quickly. We're betting his over PRA of 27 and a half taken on Minnesota who shockingly allows the seventh most points, fifth most rebounds, fifth most assists to point guards. I did not realize that. I don't know why, but at this point in the year, uh, jumped out to me. I couldn't believe that was how they were defending the point guard position quickly over 27 and a half PRA. He had a monster day against them, not that long ago earlier on the schedule. And then Jamal Murray, I went over 36 and a half point three bounds and assists against the Lakers. That one's a high total 240 and a half Denver's laying five and a half. I also like laying the five and a half with Denver Lakers stink against good teams. Uh, but Murray has a great match up as the Lakers
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