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In this hour of VSiN By The Books, Dave Ross and Jensen Lewis discuss potential Circa Millions strategies. Also, they are joined by Mike Palm, who discusses all things sports.
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VSiN Best Bets — VSiN By The Books | September 3, 2026 | Hour 2. Machine-transcribed; use the interactive transcript above to jump the player to any line.
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Match with a licensed therapist today at Talkspace.com. Save $80 with code space80 at Talkspace.com. Top of the hour, it is V-SIM by the book, Dave Ross, right here at the Mint Gaming Hall in a very hot Franklin, Kentucky. Our closing gents and most back home in Cleveland, Ohio to that end, Gents. And we got some races going on here at the Mint Gaming Hall here over the weekend, big Kentucky downs. Races going on. The heat is so bad, the heat index. They're moving up some of the races today. So if you're coming out locally here and you're in the area in Nashville, Tennessee, you're coming on up. Check out the schedule here because the heat is causing some problems. You got a lot of rain that you're waking up to this morning here in Cleveland, Ohio. Yeah, yeah, I got it done. Thank goodness for that. I would like to have clear skies to have the the the blackstone ready to go for Saturday morning.
Week one of college football starting tonight. Shout out Justin Emory, who is also a grilling connoisseur as yours truly. Oh, yeah. If you have not read the article, by the way, on Vison.com about the daily strikeout leader Justin came across and did some really incredible investigative work to get to a system and a method that has made him a very, very handsome amount of money in this baseball season. Vison.com. Excellent read. Shout out Adam Berk as well for getting that to the masses. So very exciting read. And again, guy can cook if if we're ever indeed. Back out in Vegas, we know whose house we're going to. We know who the grill master is going to be. He's shown us some pictures. They are quite impressive and maybe Steve Balmer might show up at the cookout because he's got a lot of time on his hands this year. That's where we begin our highlights in headlines. Help your bottom line with today's highlights and headlines.
And I will strike down upon the with furious anger. That is what Adam Silver has done to Steve Balmer and the LA Clippers, maybe not as much to co-wire Leonard specifically here, Jensen. The fallout from the massive punishments here for the Clippers circumventing the salary cap rules when they signed co-wire Leonard. Remember, co-wire Leonard was traded in the off season to Toronto. That trade does still go through. But here it is in a nutshell. 700K is going to be in restitution that co-wire personally is to pay back. That is a slap in the wrist. The contract will not be voided. He will not be suspended. Now as a member of the Raptors, he put out a statement, hey, I'm looking to the future. Now I take responsibility, but maybe I also didn't know what my former business partner, Dennis Robertson was doing. He has been banned for contact from the league for five years for the ownership part and the Clippers part. $30 million fine. Five first round picks Steve Balmer suspended for a year and a lot of guys in front of office as well, Jensen. This is as significant a punishment that we've seen in quite some time.
And there is no recourse inside the NBA itself for Steve Balmer. Yeah, this is a death knell for the Clippers at least for the next half decade and the $30 million fine way more than the three and a half million dollars. If you remember back in 2000 for the Minnesota Timberwolf scandal in which they also had to surrender five first round picks to were later returned to them. But that was the Joe Smith issue there. Feels like the the Clippers have had this before and cannot get out of their own corruptive way. But I made the analogy early for people just joining us. This feels like the dark night rises where Bane is the expect one of us in the wreckage brother. And that's the Clippers falling to the earth. Why gets away with basically a slap on the wrist and will head to Toronto now that that trade can be consummated. Adam Silver had to do it had to make an example had to make the penalties as fierce and
as harsh as really you could right up into that red line of point and overturn. But this is massive for the Clippers. They will not be competitive here for the foreseeable future. And again, this could continue outside of the NBA offices. If you will, Steve Balmer could take it to a court of law, but inside the NBA, there is no, you know, I can go ahead and plead my case here and get to know this is done. That of course, according to my body, Shams Tronia over there to ESPN that this could only go outside of the NBA framework. If Steve Balmer wants to push the issue any farther, sounds a lot like what the SEC and Lane Kiffin are going through. We're going to hear from Louisiana judge later on today in that case. The Raiders have officially announced that Kirk Cousins will be the starting quarterback in week one against Emma three and a half is the number here to the way of the silver and black. Fourty and a half is that total. Jensen, we talked about it in hour number one. Does feel like, boy, if you're Mendoza sitting on the bench, if you're Clint Kubiak, this
is the perfect guy to be your week one starter and beyond until and when the kid is finally ready. Yep. And I think it is hard of hearts. Clint Kubiak wants Kirk Cousins to be the quarterback, the entirety of the year. Now make no mistake about it. I think Kirk Cousins at this point also wants to reassert himself and say, I'm still one of the best 32 quarterbacks in the National Football League and he gets a very unique match up in week one is the Miami Dolphins, who many think could also struggle with Malik Willis, Jeff Hathley and company trying to infuse a new culture. That's what Clint Kubiak is trying to do with the Las Vegas Raiders. Number as far as the total day of just having to check it, open to 39 and a half, when up to 40 and a half is back down to 39 and a half. So slight fluctuation there spread is basically remained constant at 3 and a half and the money line has started to creep down a little bit. Dolphins were upwards of $1.65 underdogs. That's not obscene down to 148.
So potentially some money coming in and people starting to make some decisions as we get ever so close to week one beginning next Wednesday. More to say about this game specifically next week as well with the fish catching that three and a half on the row ad. When what are we going to see in college football? We got a week one slate tonight 11 games here. We'll figure out what Dion Saint, I know it's like so quiet. Nobody talking about prime time. And the Colorado Buffalo is felt like that was always to talk in the in the preseason if you will, leading up to college football season, maybe Lane Kiffin has just sucked all the oxygen out of the room there. But they're getting seven, six and a half out there, depending on the number that you can find here against the Ram one wreck of Georgia Tech in the ATL. And prime time will be the first one to tell you, Jensen. This is my house. Boy, he had some good days back in his Atlanta days early in his NFL playing career. Well, a much different look for not only this group, but also the Georgia Tech side. And no more Haynes King as a starting quarterback.
Speaking of Fernando Mendoza, we get his brother Alberto Mendoza, who will make the start for Georgia Tech tonight. I did grab six and a half with Colorado. I know you have a seven in pockets. So you've got the better of it. Still think this is much closer and very tight as we get into the fourth quarter. Key handy cap for me. Can Colorado limit the rushing attack for Georgia Tech? It's what the yellow jackets want to do. Justice Haynes, a transfer from Michigan. You'll see Malachi Hossley, a little one A1B action in the backfield. As long as Colorado can kind of assert some early offense and maybe force Georgia Tech to have to go through the air, very much like getting the points here. And what basically is the marquee matchup of the Thursday night slate? Pazing Dr. Lewis, show Hey, Tani. We have not seen him on a bump anytime soon here. I don't know that we're going to see him on the diamond as far as a picture goes. Look, D Hing too offensively. So we don't know if we're going to see him play defense at all in any way, shape or form here. What do we make of Shohei not being on the mound here?
And we don't have a time frame as to when he might, if at all, pitch in the regular season. It's not so much the pitching side because I think we had our answer maybe a few weeks ago when Dave Roberts is like, I don't really, I don't really have a timeline for you. I'm like, oh, it's the way he said it. You just read the body language for what it's worth Dave, since the all star break, Dodgers are 500 and 21 and 21. You're Milwaukee, five, the one to be the number one overall seed in the national league. You're closing in on on cash and at ticket, my friend. They big win yesterday. Jacob Mizorowski took some lumps early, but that Milwaukee offense again takes advantage of a tattered Chicago cup bullpen. Milwaukee moves to 28 and 16 only the Boston Red Sox more wins since the all star break at 29 and 17. My friend, I am thrilled that you have your ticket and I added some cross board parlay tickets to get the brewers at least some shares of them as we move for they look again like the
class of the national league and that's saying a lot considering where we are with the Dodgers as well. And again, looking at some of the results yesterday and major league baseball will get to the daily diamond a little bit as well. That brewers taking two out of three here against Chicago in the manner in which they did come from from behind a couple days ago, a couple games in a row. Does it feel like that's put to bed now? That if there was any resurgence by the Cubs to make this a divisional race, did they kind of the rebellion was quelled if you will over the last couple days? Oh, yeah, the essentials over. That's it. And I think that is also an indictment to on a lot of people. And I think a lot of people at our network are kind of circling the Cubs is like, all right, that's that's a team I want to watch. If this bullpen is going to pitch this way, forget it. They're going to get bouncing the first round. I mean, you look at where this wild card set up is right now. Philadelphia, if they don't run down the braves and even if they do, I think it's a terrible match up for the Cubs in that best of three. You got to go up against the big three.
If it gets to three against Philadelphia, pick your poison. You pick names out of a hat. You want Sanchez, you want Lazardo, you want Wheeler, good luck. And then you know, you're at least facing Crisale in game one and you got to go to Atlanta. I think Chicago and Dyer straights here as far as what their bullpen looks like. They better get that figured out here in the final weeks of the season. And very quickly, the pot raise the last couple days here in Cincinnati. And again, you mentioned this off the top of the show. We're starting to look at some of these results. And it's not so much, you know, when you're losing, but who you're losing to and we know the schedule, you know, these are supposed to be this quote unquote winnable games here. When I look at the National League Wildcard spot, again, it's not devastating here, but you're these are the type of games you're expecting to win if you're the pot raise. And I'm trying to look right now with Miami winning two in a row now in Kansas City. The Marlins back to two and a half back cardinals with an impressive win three and a half back. Pirates tough loss and extras five and a half back are the Marlins.
And the last point of resistance here, the pot raise by the way, a half game behind Arizona for that last wildcard spot. Yeah, boy Arizona, James Bacan solo homer in the eighth inning, one nothing of fair. We get that multi unit under home yesterday. That's a huge loss to the Padres. Those are series you have to win off day for them today. They welcome in the New York Yankee start tomorrow night. We've got a card UFC power E will break it down a little bit with Rob Marano coming up next year. So let's do an audit here on some of what we did last year in circa million and maybe where we can be better and certainly maybe play upon some of our strong suits from a year ago. That's all next right here on Vs. And by the books. If you missed our NFL features draft, we made it really easy to catch up when we took
every pick from the show and put it one free PDF. So all you have to do is go to Vs and dot com slash download. You can grab your copy of all 130 plays listed out in order. Plus we included a breakdown of all the picks by category. So if you want to get up to speed, if you want a clean reference to come back to go grab the free NFL features draft PDF at decent dot com slash download that's v s i n dot com slash download. You see all those those faces on your screen here. If you're watching on YouTube television and beyond. So again, all of those picks in order because if we don't have order in this world, we have a chance to do that. We have nothing. We are back in circa millions. You and I as a team. You also have an individual play that you'll be making this year as well. I have to be honest when we do the audit from a year ago, we could have easily said first time together first two weeks of the season. It's awful, Jensen. Let's go for the movie prize. We didn't do that as professionals.
We said we're going to pick ourselves up by the bootstraps and this team will rally around our picks and we did. Jensen to finish in the black after the dismal start we had, which goes to prove how hard it is early in the year to figure these teams out. Is that your big takeaway that man, it really is hard. I think week one is traditionally the toughest year to pick a T S winners. Well, there are a couple of things to take away. One, the strong finish is certainly one that will hang our hats on. One in nine. Again, the most transparent operation in the betting space. We don't hide anything. We put it out there when loser draw week one and week two, one in nine. It was a decision early on we did not anticipate having to really seriously consider. We decided, nope, no booby prize in year one. We're going to go for it. And from week three to week eight, Dave, six consecutive winning weeks. We did have four, four and one weeks in total.
And our first quarter, seven and thirteen, not the best, but then you can see the second and third quarter numbers. We really turned up the heat 27, 16 and two combined there. Sliped a little bit in the fourth quarter, but ending up 45, 43 and two. So a couple of early takeaways. One, I think we are going to for go any of the flat numbers, meaning I think we're going to play all halves. So it's it has to be a seven and a half, six and a half. That'll be a wrinkle for us when we put in our top 10 spreads that if we do come up with a flat seven or three or whatever, I don't, I don't think we're going to take those just knowing the half points really don't give you a lot of leverage. Now as it pertains to specific teams and divisions, this was a fascinating case study. But bangles, most wins, ATS, when we took the bangles, we were four and one. We were a perfect three, no, on the Carolina panthers of all teams. I think about that. And under 500 team, but we nailed all three times that we took them.
The Lions, we have a little love affair with them. Maybe, maybe not going to the well too much this year with the Lions. We're two and six. Picking the Motor City Kitties. The best ATS division though, AFCs, nine and five. We're respectable there. Dave, I don't know if it was us or you or a combination of NFC East, we love our Cowboys, we don't like one seven and one. Ironically, we didn't pick the Eagles at all. Did not pick the Eagles at all and we did not pick the Packers. So you know, again, just looking at when you finally, you know, do the deep dive and like, wow, I didn't, I didn't really expect that. Okay, the marquee games. All right. And I think this is one of our bigger adjustments here. We are excellent. There's a knife football six and three. There are no Kings in this country, Dave, but we are the Kings of international handicapping when it comes to NFL matches that that happened overseas. Perfect for no last year. I want to prove. We look to improve on that this year.
Sunday night football. And this is usually when we're trying to get ready for the show, you know, and all that. Now we have to submit our picks on Saturday morning. But maybe just maybe we sit back and be fans on Sunday night. Yeah. And maybe just maybe we do the same on Monday night football. We love the Monday night football. We wanted to have a reason to stay up. We were four and five on Monday night football selection. So biggest takeaways and I'll get your thoughts on it. Biggest takeaways. I think we're really good on the short weeks and overseas as far as the marquee games. I think we can kind of hold serve on that. I think we will make a little change with those half spreads and not doing flat numbers this year because I think that will also get us a little bit more clarity on all right. If we're in between, would rather take the half point, you know, for the dog. I think there's a couple of tweaks we can make. I'd tell you this though, in all seriousness, when you start off one in nine, if there
was a number that Jeffrey Benson put up at circa that we would finish in the black, plus money number, we have gotten on that to be able to turn it around from the depths of despair. And again, this was, this was new for us as well. It was our first foray into it. So year two, I do expect us to get off on the good foot much better than we did a year ago. So yes, I'm very happy and very proud that one we didn't mail it in and try to go op oh and try to get the booby prize. And we said, no, no, we're going to try to figure this thing out. So for those quarterly prizes as well, if you're in the circa million pool as we are, those are available to you. And there's four four and one weeks. I'd like to have some five of those mixed in this year. It's hard to do people. ATS it is very hard to do. But I think we started to hit our stride. We were very good, obviously, undefeated in the international games. I remember we took the jets in one of those international fairs against the Broncos, I believe it was. People thought we are nuts. They should have won that game out. We're one of the ugliest games we were on the points that day. So again, we'll get some dirty spots in there, some dirty dogs that we like and they've
been kind of profitable for us. I'm stunned by that NFC East number. I'd love to go back and see how many because we didn't pick the Eagles, how many of those are Cowboys, commanders, giants related there. And the Packers we didn't pick. I'm very curious as to how we never got on a game with them, but we avoided the Packers all year. It's just pretty bizarre in hindsight. All right. So I will give you the NFC East breakdown. Of course, no Eagles selections. We were one in four selecting the Dallas Cowboys. Oh, two, where in the one? Oh, oh, two and one of the giants. I'll go back to I'll give you specifics where we were. And oh and one on the commanders. So the times that we took the Cowboys, week two, they were laying five and a half, no good. Looking through, let's see, let's see where else we had the Cowboys. Oh, Cowboys getting a point and a half and week seven is our lone winner for them. We went back to them week eight getting.
Yeah, I went back to them a week eight getting three, no good. Week nine on Monday night football. They were laying two and a half, no good. And I got one more in here somewhere. Look at you. You can remember this. Oh, Christmas. Oh, God, lay in seven and a half. Oh, boy. And a half on Christmas. Terrible. No good. No good. Yeah, we won't, we won't be laying points with the Cowboys on Christmas and he longer. That was that was certainly a wasteful pick there. But yeah, I am impressed that we finished in the black 43, 40, 45, 43 and two. We'll get off on a much better start this year, Jensen. We'll be in the money for the long run. I've been very profitable of you, but watching first strike with me and Rob Marino, Rob in a very interesting proposition this week with the resultant, Ruzza Boy have taken on Michael Venom page and how he had to get to a pick. Let's hear that conversation. This may not be the prettiest fight running through the model. It does land on Nerselton, but it gives him that tier three dog, which is usually a stay away from me. I had decided I was going to stay away.
Now, you know, a couple of weeks ago, you and I had done a, we had opened up a pack of cards. We haven't done it since. We'll do it soon. We'll do it soon. We have too much to talk about. But we'll do it again. But the rule I give myself when I open those packs is if I pull a fighter from this event, I have to find a bet on him. And unfortunately, I ended up with the Michael Venom page card. No, that I'm so upset. I have all the guys that showed up. It was the guy I just, I had spent five, 10 minutes bashing. Yeah, you're to play them. Yeah. Life finds a way. So there's two different things I might look at and already took it off the screen, but I do have significant strikes projected on my website as well. I kind of, I don't play those a lot, but it's only projecting 33 significant strikes for Michael page. Depending what the number is, I may find a way to bet him under his significant strikes, depending what we get. Now, I won't know that till about Friday afternoon.
So sit and wait. We'll see. If not, you can also bet overall strikes and that'll be another sneaky under. But if I have to, because I'm a man of my word, I will bet Michael Venom page just on the money line because I didn't love what I got from Nurgleton enough. I know at some point I'm going to be on the right side of Michael page. I don't know when that'll be, but that's my situation this week with my new friend, Michael. I love it. I'll say this about it because you're a man of your word. You could do this. Maybe it's a work around a little bit. Okay. So it's a dollar 66 on MVP this week. The total sitting at two and a half rounds is the exact same price, a dollar 66. And I'm sorry, your number is just kind of laid it out. There's so much inactivity between Ruseboy, uh, Ruseboy and, uh, and MVP, that, that overscreens to me, a dollar 66. Like, if you made me play that, I'd rather play that. I want a back Ruseboy have here, but I can't because the numbers don't support it, right? So I just think it's going to be boring for three rounds in Paris and MVP gets his
arm raised here in a boring three round decision. That's the way I see it. You five, somebody watched our podcast, check it out. First strike on Veecin, wherever you get your podcast, the my stroke, my fall. He's up next, Veecin by the books. Right here on Veecin. We love it. Football season is back in our lives. Veecin, prog is you everything you need to bet this season a little bit smarter. Become a Veecin pro subscriber today. Get instant access to our updated NFL betting guide. It features post preseason updates, week one betting systems, contest strategies and fresh best bets from the experts here at the network. Plus, you're also going to receive a lot of money. All the best bets from the shareholder's minds here at the network. So your Veecin pro subscription also includes daily best bets, real time betting splits from draft kings and circa, AI powered prop tools 24 7 video on the Veecin watch app. You can get started for as little as 999 or say 50% off with a Veecin pro annual subscription,
a better bang for your buck there. Sign up now at Veecin.com. We'll see you in the next video. We'll see you in the next video. Bye. All right. So we're going to talk some baseball here as well and a little bit. But with the focus being on the NFL in college football week number one tonight, I got to imagine businesses up back home in Las Vegas. You know, Dave and good morning, Jensen. I was surprised last week and you know, it was contest sign up week and then we had my
panel last Saturday afternoon. But the amount of energy in here for week zero when they were like what four or five significant games in that they, you know, they were power four teams playing or whatever. And I'm not trying to discount FCS. But just the palpable energy in the building for week zero when you had a really horrific game in Ireland, Ina Jensen, I was on the same side as you. I gave up on the under by the end of the first quarter. You know, I didn't even look at it. And then I saw the final 15 10. I mean, you know, we had a like we had good action on the USC game, good action on the UNLV game. You just filled the energy of week zero already and now we'll get the first full weekend of college football that'll take that up three X and then the next weekend with the opening week in the NFL, which has become now our third biggest week week into the year here behind March madness is number one opening weekend, then Super Bowl and then week one of the NFL followed by fourth wildcard weekend. It's it will be crazy. It's like, you know, it's like springtime for baseball, right?
Everybody begins believing their team is going to make a playoff run and everybody's still alive and all the contests. So truly, truly, this is the beginning of the the church year for us. Amen to that. And to that end, Mike, I know that contest week, a week closer to the NFL season versus last year. And I remember, you know, Michelle and I are out there and I signed up with Tom and David there for Vegas football proxy. They were like, take a picture of the numbers now because it's going to be astronomically higher just a week later. Are you guys still on record pace? I know Jeffrey Benson was posting a bit on where the numbers were. Are we still ahead and kind of on that record pace for all three contests? Yeah. You know, they'll update the numbers at 9 a.m., right? But we're over 17 million in survivor because I get the 15 minute update on the phone. Our little crack here that we get to look all the time, 17, 263 and survivor. This is 10 days left, right? We've 10 days. We crossed the 4,000 threshold for
circa millions. I so I do believe we'll get to the 6,000 and then we're at 39 in Grand D.C. Mo, but I know we have several people coming in. One guy brought a group and they did eight last year. He, he message camera. He has today and Jeff Benson. He will be here. He's not sure when sometime mid next week and the plan is to do 9 to 11. There's another group coming to do four to six. So I do believe we can get to the 10 million as far as pacing. Circus survivor is up 55% same day last year. The millions is up 15% and Grand D.C. Mo, you know, your number. We're at 39 compared to 23. We're going to have Adam Berk on a little bit later on. We'll talk some of these contest strategies here as we go. But you've seen this since the iteration of it when it first began. I'm still stunned, Mike. When I see every year that somebody's going to miss an entry and they're not going to submit it in time. Like, do you, that's just going to continue. I don't know why that does continue. Are there any outside of that? Is there any don'ts that you would give to people that are first time entry players,
whether it's survivor or millions, just as far as maybe a basic strategy? Because I, I'm still stunned when I see people missing those. But past that, is there anything you could recommend to kind of avoid X? Well, I think let's, let's talk about the no picks because it's fascinating. Some day ESPN should do a 30 for 30 on the no picks. Not the no picks week one, but like the no picks when you're, when you're into November, right? When you're now, now the entries are worth several hundred thousand to a million dollars. And you don't get a pick in. Because it's fascinating. Paul Howard said yesterday, if there's 25 million or more in the pool, he believes there'll be 150 no picks in week one, which I think is unbelievable. But that's an absurd number. But I mean, we, I think we were pleasantly surprised that we're less than 40 last year in week one. And you know, sometimes it's people, sometimes it's people that bought 10 entries. And they don't, and they don't get the 10. And I remember it was a law student at UNLV and didn't get it in and wrote this long letter about, I went in Sunday morning to put the picks in and it was closed. Like what you're going to invest 10,000, would you read the rules?
It's, it's, it's pretty amazing. And then when we talk about it, nauseam on this network and we have all the tweets in about this and that anyhow. Strategy. Here's what I think. And this is my opinion and people don't share this opinion. This is beyond week to week. I think that the millions is a great contest to have a partner in or, or multiple partners. And you sit down and talk through maybe on Thursday and then Friday and talk through because I don't know for me, it's hard to generate five and a half plays on a weekend. And I think getting different perspectives is great. I don't think survivors great to have a partner with unless, unless everybody in the group knows up like meatball brothers, right? And they all just subjugate their egos and say, John is going to be the guy that ultimately makes the decision. And we're going to support whatever John picks. I've seen a breakup friendships. You get late in the year and one guy wants one pick. The other wants another and they get eliminated. Are you costing me a million, two, a million, three, a million for me? I mean, I think it's tough.
So unless you have that kind of a group that can just blindly say, yeah, and we're going to go with the pick, I think it's hard to do, especially with a single partner or three people. I think it's a, it's a hard thing to do. Now, once you get into it, my, what might take away from last year was, because if you had the eagles of the Ravens on Thanksgiving, you played and saved them. You've done everything right and you were out, right? I believe, and there's crossover, there's like four or five teams that play both Christmas and Thanksgiving. I think you should save two teams in a single game on Thanksgiving that also play on Christmas, two teams in the same game, and you're going to be willing to sacrifice an entry on Thanksgiving. But the entry that you have that advances, right, will have the other team still eligible for Christmas, by virtue of what you've done, because of this big crossover teams at play on both. I just think that's the lesson for me. On the holiday on Thanksgiving, you have to be able to sacrifice an entry and take two sides of the same game. Yeah. And again, it's Thanksgiving Eve, Thanksgiving, and Black Friday.
So that's 10 teams, Mike. You're looking at Green Bay LA Rams, Thanksgiving Eve, Bears Lions, Eagles Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills for Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday is Broncos Steelers. I don't know how the hell people are surviving because those are five at least today. Those are five exceptional games. And then Christmas, you have the Christmas Eve game of the Texans in Philadelphia, Green Bay, at Chicago on Christmas morning, Bills at Broncos, and then Rams and Seahawks on Christmas night. Good night. If you survived through that, man, you should get a high five and then some. I did want to tell you, because in a Lewis Ross administration, we do feel like we lead from the front. And it was one of those ideas that we thought together of blindly submit to Joe Friso, our top 10 spreads on a Thursday. And we'll say you this obviously next week. And then we kind of go back and forth. That's how we've done it in a president, vice president. You know, this is a nice little back and forth. So Mike, as you know, you already have a cabinet
position to be named in this upcoming administration. One quick thought with you. And I know we'll talk about it upcoming. Do you subscribe in millions to not picking a flat number, meaning a seven versus a seven to half, a three versus three and a half because of the half points and what that could cost you for total points later in the competition. Yeah, but I think there's exceptions to that. Jensen, especially if you are in late in a quarter and you're in a position to cash, where that might be beneficial to you to choose a game where you might get a half point. They're very rare exceptions. But I think to your point, yes, in general, you want to have a decision because you're going to need a decision when there's six, six thousand other entries to try to cash in a quarter or try to get into the top 10. I will say this is a disclaimer. You know, if you do the partner route, like you guys are doing, you know, and you submit your top 10 and rank them and assign points to them or whatever, you can take this to obsession. I remember West Reynolds and Jeff Powell's partnering on this contest, maybe three or four years ago, and they would
spend four to six hours on the phone on Friday trying to come up with. I don't want it to take over people's lives. It won't. We do it as a show. We do. Yeah, we got a good. It's a show work around Mike. It's content for us here on the network, right? It works for us for a weekly segment. And by the way, my best friend, John, she was my partner. You've met him out there, Mike in Las Vegas. Chewie and I have been boys since 10th grade. Nothing is going to break this friendship up. And we are we are a little bit more cavalier about our selections to every week. But we do talk on the phone and it is a good way to keep social networking that way as well to have a weekly conference about what the pick is going to be. But once it's in, it's in. And then we took all those personal biases as far as who made the pick and put those aside and route for some good luck. We'll find out what is on the mind of the Maestro next right here. Veece and by the books. Work.
You're too dim to be sent by the books right here on Veece. The ratings are in and it is the highest rated segment that we do each and every week right here on Veece and by the books. Jensen, you know what you love it? You need it. It is time for poems. Pressing. Read. Pressing. Yes, I say it's pressing. This is bombs pressing. Read. The landlord told me never to answer questions. What a question. All right, Jensen. I've noticed through Jacob Mizorowski's last half dozen starts or so that the first time through the lineup he writes relies heavily on his four seam fastball so much that I went back and look at usage rates. In the last eight starts usage first time through the lineup of the four seamer 72% while the second time through the order that usage rate drops below 50% as he
starts throwing off speed off speed pitch as much more frequently if you call 92 off speed. Won't playoff teams pick up on this pattern? Do you expect the brewers to break this tendency during the playoffs? I think that the tendencies are going to remain because you still have to catch up to 102 to 103 and with the unfairness of what a 92 to 94-hour off speed is like whether it be as change of a break and ball. I think the only thing that could really derail him is the mound at Rigglyfield. I don't know if you saw. I was watching a little bit of marquee in the pregame yesterday because they were doing a little bit of a feature in Taylor McGregor, a great friend of the show, I had highlighted that the Miz had thrown a bullpen a side session on the game mound because he's had issues with the footing and it did surface again last night. Mike now he humidity all that aside. The command he had four walks last night and you could tell the first couple of innings was still not right. I had the cement mix or break and ball that Breggman hits for the
game tying home run in the first inning, but still trying to get his bearings. The good thing though Mike is that I don't think he's going to have to worry about it. Milwaukee, the closing speed here to lock up the one seed into the divisional round as well, he's going to make that first start at American Family Field. The one thing from Scouts at this point the year is they're going to try and as you perfectly alluded to find some tendencies for these lineups, especially knowing you're going to face this guy. But I think that just kind of looking through some of advanced numbers and then also seeing where he's been especially at home. I don't know how you beat this guy, man. It is it has really been remarked. Brewers are 18 and 8 now in his starts this year and I don't know if they've lost a home. The last time they lost a home start for him was July 2nd against the Reds and then since then the only other one I believe was May 13th before that against the
Padres. So it's been a pretty dominant stretch. I think he's going to be in good shape. And again, it feels like Alex Breggman is going to hit a home run now every time he steps to the dish. The Miz by the way is a minus $6 betting favorite to win Saiyong. Chris sale is second on the board here at plus $5. Well, Dave, you've led right into my second question. So I want to I want approach the Holy Grail here, Jensen. And let's talk about war. Okay. Because as soon as PCA started drawing even with Otani in the MVP market, we heard about, well, PCA's war is 7-1 and Otani's is only is only 6-2 because he's 3.1 hitting and he's 3.1 pitching because of the innings, right? Really driven by innings. But so let's talk about that. Mr. Rowsky is anywhere from minus $6 to minus $14 in the market. And Christopher Sanchez of the Phillies is anywhere from plus $1400 to
plus $2,200. Sale being the second choice. Yet in war Sanchez is lap the field Sanchez is war is 7-7. Mr. Rowsky's seventh seventh in war at 5.3 seventh in baseball, I should say, not in the National League. If war is so important, Jensen, how can Mr. Rowsky be this big of favorite in the market is the market actually wrong? Okay. So I like this conversation because if you dig a little deeper into field independent pitching based pitching war, which basically levels all the conditions regardless of ballpark, regardless of defense, what have you. Christopher Sanchez is just the tenth of a point ahead of Jacob Mr. Rowsky. Now what I will throw out there to you, 20 more innings under the belt of Christopher Sanchez. He's got a great chance to get to 200 innings and he'll probably get there pretty easily. The Miz is 155. And I think that that's going to be a point of
contention. If Milwaukee is able to basically lock up this one seed within the last two weeks, you might see a little taper on Jacob Mr. Rowsky. Now not to say that's going to give daylight because Christopher Sanchez has already had one of the great runs this year, the scoreless inning streak over 50 innings. He is the clear ace of this Philadelphia Philly staff. I do think the market gets priced maybe a little bit more narrative based because Mike, you and I looking at some of those advanced numbers would say it's a little bit closer than I think that people realize I'm fascinated to see the margin when we finally get to the end of the year. What is the voting block and why? In a Lewis Ross administration, you are free to vote for who you want to vote for, but you must support your answer of why it was this person over that person for your first place vote. Exactly where I was going to go, Jensen. By the way, Sanchez is 20 to one as the third betting choice behind sale at five to one to win. Sayang, Mike, I think what we'd be fascinating
is if we can't do it and get everybody in the same room that's going to vote, but maybe a zoom call and you could be like the defensive attorney for Christopher Sanchez and bring these stats to the forefront because I don't think they know this stuff, Mike, and they're going to go, oh, it's the Miz and then because the I they're not going to take that into account. They should 20 to one. That's ridiculous number on Sanchez. I do think Dave and Jensen though that baseball voters and NFL awards voters pay much more attention to the game than say the 880 people that vote for the Heisman where it's often based on highlights, right? These guys actually dig into the numbers and they watch a lot of games. And sale does have the highlight moment of the one nothing shut out over Yamamoto if you're considering sale in that market. I want to make one other note before question three. I listened to a Steve Stone interview last week about Davis Martin who pitched last night and he talked about this rapid descent having a lot to do with the blister and that's why everything was down in a way to right handed or down and down and down and end to
right handed hitters and down and a way to left handed hitters and he lost his control. But you get five scoreless settings last night. So interesting. All right. Final question, Jensen. In this era of NIL and hypermobility and collegiate athletics, what is your level of handy-capping confidence in betting early season college football or college basketball? Early college football. I'm not as adverse to laying some of the bigger spreads because the bigger schools with those big budgets have brought in not only the guys that are starters, but I also will look at scheduling. A perfect spot here. Texas against Texas State. I think Steve's Archeition is going to want to have all those boys mining their peas and cues. You're going to want to have momentum. Same thing with Ryan Day and the boys laying upwards of 15 and a half against ball state. They are sacrificial lamps for a reason, but those are scheduling spots knowing what's on deck. I think they're going to want to have those guys a well oil machine. You have a lot of depth with those high budget big school
football rosters. So that is a little tweak for me last year and hey, we saw it play out in the college football playoff, right? It was men against boys. When you had the group of five guys, group of six coming in like, it's just not there, man. When you can't spend 20 million on a team and you know, hopefully they get this wrangled and reeled in after this year with some legislation. Dave, I don't know about you, but it is a clear line of demarcation in a scheduling spot. When you've got a big game on deck two and you know, you need to have it far different than what we watched last year with Ohio State Texas right off the rip. I think that'll change on scheduling spots this year. Yeah, I'm going to talk to Roy Philpot in the next hour. He's got Texas this week, a week ahead of that Ohio State game, Jensen to your point there. Mike, very quickly, all the craziness going on in college football right now. There's going to be a judging Louisiana that here's the quote merits of the case. You have worn many hats in your life. Could you put a lawyer hat on here? What do you think is going to come out of this today? You have any guesses what the
rulings might be? Well, all politics and jurisprudence are local, aren't they? I mean, we saw that in the Texas Tech case. So it's very interesting when you have local judges here in these cases, and we've heard coach to speak it over and over again. We're, you know, we're kicking off and we don't know what our roster is. It's pretty ludicrous. And the NCAA has got to be able to define something. Congress will probably get involved. And people say to me, why would Congress get involved? Well, they're already officiating Caitlin Clark game. So why wouldn't they get involved in eligibility? It's absolutely insane. And I love the fact that Davos, sweetie, said he was speechless and had nothing to say. Then it went on for about four minutes with a lot to say. About what's going on? 10.100 dogs in that game. My great stuff is always, man, we appreciate your time. It's going to be a great weekend. If you're out there in Sin City, get over to circa week one tonight and certainly over the weekend for college football in earnest. And again, the busiest, one of the third busiest weeks of the year coming up for you with week one on the horizon Wednesday night for the start of the NFL season. I mentioned Roy Philpott's going to be on the program. Adam
Burke will be as well. Talk about some of those survivor trends as well. That's all straight ahead right here on Beeson, the sports betting network.
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