Valuing Bitcoin using Credit Default Swaps (CDS) w/ Greg Foss - FED 46

Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.

iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg

Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com

Greg Foss Bitcoin Valuation Thesis as Portfolio Insurance https://rockstarinnercircle.com/foss/

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/greg-foss-a553ab32/

In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner speak with ​Greg Foss, who “has a 30-year history in banks, bonds and the credit markets as a whole. His insights around Bitcoin and the state of the banking industry and the global economy are amazing.” The second Canadian in 3 episodes, Fed Watch is bringing great North American bitcoiners with unique perspectives on to discuss all aspects of how bitcoin is meeting the challenges of entering the central bank dominated financial world.

In this conversation, we first learn a little bit about Greg’s background in banking. He began his career in 1988 working for the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) where he quickly realized it was insolvent due to their exposure to the Latin American Financial Crisis. He went on to work for and found many influential financial firms in Canada over the next 30 years, until he found bitcoin in 2016. 

The reason Fed Watch wanted to speak with Greg Foss is his interesting valuation thesis for bitcoin which you can find on his website linked above. It centers around bitcoin as portfolio insurance for fixed income investors. In this episode, the listener will get a master class on Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads and pricing.

Today, the CDS market is the way the financial industry prices risk in the credit market in the attempt to make homogeneous investable products for fixed income investors. The problem is when financial conditions change, which they very often do, these prices move, forcing investors to react and kicking off a downward spiral in prices. It is a very unstable framework. Foss highlights that bitcoin is a perfect fit in this market to reduce risk and act as a hedge during the inevitable periods of market instability.

 

Another aspect Greg concentrates on is the unworkable mathematics of global debt. He uses an example that the global economy, which has stayed under 5% per year since 1976, must get to levels approaching growth of 12% simply to service the current debt. In this world, there will be defaults, the system will have to readjust, and that readjustment will be painful.

In the second half of this episode, we touch on Central Bank D