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As Typhoon Bavi moves farther inland after making landfall in Zhejiang province, the biggest threat to northern China may not be damaging winds, but days of torrential rainfall, meteorologists said.
气象专家表示，台风巴威登陆浙江后持续深入内陆，对我国北方地区而言，最大威胁并非大风损毁，而是连日暴雨。
By Monday morning, Bavi had weakened as it moved north-northeast slowly across Anhui province. However, its expansive rain bands continued to spread across much of eastern China, affecting provinces from Fujian and Zhejiang to Shandong, Liaoning and Jilin.
截至周一早晨，巴威北上东北行，途经安徽时强度逐步减弱，但其庞大雨带持续覆盖我国东部大片区域，影响范围涵盖福建、浙江、山东、辽宁、吉林等省份。
Chen Tao, chief forecaster at the National Meteorological Center, said Bavi is expected to move northeast at about 15 kilometers per hour, crossing Jiangsu and Shandong provinces before entering the northern Yellow Sea around midday on Tuesday.
国家气象中心首席预报员陈涛介绍，巴威将以每小时 15 公里左右速度向东北方向移动，途经江苏、山东，预计周二中午前后进入黄海北部海域。
Although the typhoon is expected to continue weakening, its impact should not be underestimated, especially in Liaoning and Jilin, where rainfall could be exceptionally intense, Chen said.
陈涛称，虽然台风强度会持续衰减，但影响不容小觑，辽宁、吉林两地或将出现极端强降雨。
Northern Liaoning and central Jilin could receive exceptionally heavy downpours, with isolated areas forecast to receive 300 to 450 millimeters of rain. In some places, daily rainfall could exceed historical records, he said.
辽宁北部、吉林中部有特大暴雨，局地累计降雨量可达 300 至 450 毫米，部分站点单日降雨量或将突破历史极值。
Unlike typhoons that strike southern China and rapidly weaken after moving inland, storms that track northward often pose a different threat.
登陆华南的台风深入内陆后通常快速减弱，北上台风带来的灾害风险与之截然不同。
Even as their winds diminish, they can produce widespread and persistent rainfall, triggering floods far from where they first made landfall.
即便风力大幅衰减，仍会带来大范围持续性降雨，在远离登陆点的区域引发洪涝灾害。
Bavi continues to draw vast amounts of tropical moisture northward, creating a sustained flow of humid air into northern China. If both the storm and the surrounding weather systems move slowly, rainfall could persist for several days, significantly increasing the risk of flooding, Chen said.
陈涛解释，巴威持续将大量热带水汽向北输送，源源不断向北方输送暖湿气流。若台风本体及周边天气系统移动缓慢，降雨将持续多日，洪涝风险显著升高。
Zhao Dajun, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, explained that a key factor determining a typhoon's track is the western Pacific subtropical high, a large high-pressure system that acts as a steering mechanism for tropical cyclones.
中国气象科学研究院研究员赵大军解读，西太平洋副热带高压是决定台风路径的核心系统，如同引导热带气旋移动的 “方向盘”。
When the system extends farther west, typhoons are more likely to head toward southern China. When it weakens or shifts eastward, however, storms have more room to turn north, moving across eastern China toward the Yellow Sea and eventually Northeast China.
副高西伸时，台风多西行登陆华南；若副高减弱东撤，台风则有北上空间，自华东穿过黄海，最终影响东北地区。
As Bavi moves northward, it is also being steered by stronger upper-level winds that help carry the storm to higher latitudes, Zhao said.
赵大军表示，巴威北上过程中还受到高空偏北气流牵引，助推其向更高纬度行进。
Another reason Bavi has been able to travel so far inland is that sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea remain relatively warm, providing enough energy for the storm to maintain its circulation longer than usual.
巴威能够长距离深入内陆的另一原因是东海、黄海水温偏高，可为台风环流供给能量，使其维持完整结构的时长超出常规台风。
The storm may weaken, but its capacity to produce heavy rainfall often remains intact.
台风风力虽减弱，但制造强降雨的能力并未大幅下降。
As a result, Northeast China could still experience severe rainfall even if the storm's center does not pass directly overhead, meteorologists said.
气象专家指出，即便台风中心不直接经过东北地区，当地仍会遭遇强降雨天气。
Gao Xiaoyu, an associate researcher at the academy, said mountainous terrain could further intensify rainfall. As moisture-laden air is forced up mountain slopes, it cools and condenses, producing heavier precipitation. Similar terrain in Liaoning and Jilin could locally enhance rainfall as Bavi moves into Northeast China.
该院副研究员高晓宇表示，山地地形会加剧降雨强度：携带充沛水汽的气流爬坡抬升、冷却凝结，形成更强降水。巴威进入东北后，辽宁、吉林山地将出现降雨增幅效应。
The storm could also affect coastal areas.
此次台风还将给沿海地区带来次生灾害。
As it passes over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, strong winds may push seawater toward the coast, raising sea levels and increasing the risk of storm surges in parts of Shandong and Liaoning, especially if the storm coincides with high tide, Gao said.
高晓宇介绍，台风途经黄海、渤海期间，大风会推动海水涌向岸边，抬升沿岸水位，山东、辽宁部分区域风暴增水风险升高，恰逢天文大潮时风险将进一步加剧。
Looking ahead, China is likely to face two to three more typhoons during the late July to early August flood season, Chen Tao said.
陈涛表示，展望后期，7 月末至 8 月初主汛期我国还将迎来 2 至 3 个台风影响。
Five to six typhoons are expected to form over the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea during the period, with two to three making landfall in or affecting China.
此期间西北太平洋、南海预计生成 5 至 6 个台风，其中 2 至 3 个登陆或影响我国。
One particularly strong typhoon could bring significant wind and rain to northern regions, Chen added.
陈涛补充，或将有一个强度较强的台风给我国北方带来明显风雨影响。
torrential /təˈrenʃl/adj. 暴雨的，倾泻的
subtropical /ˌsʌbˈtrɒpɪkl/adj. 副热带的；亚热带的
precipitation /prɪˌsɪpɪˈteɪʃn/n. 降水；降水量
surge /sɜːdʒ/n. 激增；风暴增水
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