Turkey’s balancing act on Iran and China’s new five-year plan

0:00Craft matters. In small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for, which is why for 160 years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft, tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies, all happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs, with you at the heart of it all. UBS, advice is outcrafed. You're listening to the Globalist, first broadcast on the 4th of March, 2026 on Monaco Radio. The Globalist, in association with UBS. Live from London, this is the Globalist, with me Emma Nelson, a very warm welcome to

1:12today's programme. Coming up, the US has its struck 2,000 targets in a run as part of its joint bombing campaign with Israel. We'll get the latest as the US and Israel continue their bombardment. Also, we'll focus on Turkey as it becomes a destination for Iranians fleeing war. We'll examine the role Ankara wants to play as the whole region is drawn into the conflict. Plus, 6 months after young people's protests brought down the Nepali government, the country holds its first elections. We'll examine what's up for grabs and whether this is a real chance for democratic change. And China's double meetings of defence and economy are held this week. We'll look ahead to them and we'll hear the latest news from the world of TV and look at the world of luxury travel too. That's all coming up on the Globalist, live from London. First, a quick look at what else is happening in today's news. The international prices

2:14of oil and gas have risen again as concerns grow that supplies could be affected by the conflict in Iran. Myanmar's Junta has said it's to ration the use of private cars as part of fears over the supply of fuel. And prosecutors in Cuba have charged six people with terrorism in connection with an incident last week. Stay tuned to Monaco Radio throughout the day for more on these stories. But first, the United States says it struck 2000 targets in Iran as part of its joint bombing campaign with Israel. Yesterday, for the first time since the US and Israel launched their strikes on Iran, the US president has taken questions from reporters and Donald Trump claimed that just about everything in Iran has been knocked out. Well, I'm joined now by Renard Mansour, who's a senior research fellow of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House. Very good morning to you, Renard. Good morning. So the effect of 2000 strikes, what would they be? The intention is to completely decapitate and degrade most of Iran's military infrastructure.

3:17So that's the navy, but also the military, the army, the ability for Iran to launch its drones and its ballistic missiles. The idea is decapitation. Shaken are to use an alternative America's use to use. And to showcase also the US's superiority to show that this is a war that will end soon. There'll be a mission accomplished soon and that the US and Israel will win this war to cast any doubt that Iran has a chance and that this war could drag on and on. So the, you know, I mean, the White House has spoken about many different objectives, sometimes contradictory in itself. Is this about regime change? Is this about just removing the Ayatollah, who has been, was killed a few days ago, but very clearly this is to showcase US superiority and in sort of conventional military terms. That's what the Americans want. Is this likely to happen at the timescale or indeed at all that Washington desires?

4:19So I think clearly, you know, there's a clear mismatch in terms of conventional military terms. I mean, what the US and Israel to, one of the most powerful militaries, will certainly be able to decapitate Iran's military. However, what we know from previous sort of campaigns, including the 2003 Iraq war, which again, the slogan was shock and awe, is you can declare a military accomplishment. You can, you know, militaries can destroy, but that doesn't necessarily lead to what this will be built. Afterwards, militaries don't build. And I think that's where many people who are looking at this have have have deep concerns is there is significant civilian casualties. There is certainly a system that's attempting to be destroyed, but it's very hard to see what comes next, whether that is genuine regime change or whether segments of the Iranian system, which is still quite durable, and it's in survival mode and it's built to survive,

5:23we'll just be able to pick up and survive after this. So certainly, it's, it'll be a matter of weeks, as the US is saying, for the military side to, to, to, to, to, to show its victory, but this war and this conflict will take many, many, many more months, if not years, to reach whatever the other end state is, which is still unclear, which is part of the problem. Indeed, and messages that are coming out warnings that are coming out from Tehran themselves are those of defiance and those of powerful resistance, because we have the revolutionary guard in the last couple of hours saying that it still has complete control control of the state of Hormuz, 20 percent of the world oil pass is down the street of Hormuz. It says it is declaring this patch of water closed. It could cause huge amounts of disruption globally. Donald Trump has come back and said, actually, no, we will provide insurance. The US Navy will escort those vessels and those tankers wishing to, to, to go on their way. But the fact remains as regardless

6:23of what is happening internationally, Iran is still able to cause an enormous amount of chaos. That's correct. And, and this is a system that's not, was not built around one man. This is a system that, of, of institutions, that, that is still able to endure and to function. And a system that was anticipating this scenario, this scenario perhaps several years ago would have been unthinkable for the Iranians, but in the last, you know, since October 7th, but certainly since last year's June war, the 12th day war, you know, there have been preparations for this scenario. And so part of that is how to develop a system, a state of institutions that is able to endure and withstand the competition, attempts and the competition campaigns. So the IRGC is very much there. You know, there, there, there are, the military is very much there. The, the state is very much there. And it will take a lot more than, than, you know, what the US is planning in terms of military terms to really dismantle, which is why the question of regime change and uprising

7:27becomes important. The US really to, to, to, to pursue its campaign needs something from the society to come up and, and to, to, to, to, from the bottom up, go against these systems. And that I think is where, where, where, where, with more tricky out. If that doesn't happen, then the IRGC is built, built to endure. Let's have a, um, move now to the more international picture. As this conflict seems to touch absolutely every single country that is not just next to Iran, but is just simply nearby. Um, Renad, stay with us and, and I would like you to sort of listen into, to hearing what we're going to say from Emily with us. He's a journalist based in the city of Van in Turkey. A very good morning to Emily. Hello, good morning. And Van is, is what on the border? It's very, very close between the Turkish Iranian border. Yeah, that's right. So Turkey's got three border crossings with Iran. One of them is in the city of Van. Well, a few hours from the city of Van. And the border crossings have remained open. They were closed. It seemed for a couple of days that were not exactly sure why,

8:31but now Iranians are, as they always are, able to come into the country on a 90 day tourist visa and some are taking advantage of that. And tell me you've been to the border crossing over the last few days. What's it been like? So we're not seeing huge numbers of people at the moment, but we are seeing a slight increase in people coming. And the people I've been speaking to, they've been describing hearing bomb blasts, seeing explosions and fires and feeling terrified. What's interesting is so many people don't seem to have a plan. Their only plan was to get out and to get to safety. I spoke to one woman who said she got in her car in Iran. There was really bad traffic. And she just wanted to get her her three-year-old daughter out of the country. I spoke to another man who was just dropping his family off and then planning to go back. And talking to people, feelings are very mixed. I spoke to a number of people who thanked Trump for what he'd done. But then there were others who were anti-regime and they wanted to see change but said that this was not the way to go about it. Some people are also

9:34crossing for practical reasons. We can't say that all these people coming across are necessarily anti-regime. People are coming because they have a family here. There's a huge Iranian dysphoria in Turkey and there's not really a good internet in Turkey. So some people I spoke to just wanted to get an internet connection so they could carry on with their jobs. And I thought what was most striking was that how people had no idea what the future held. Some people were hopeful. One woman said no one can predict what is going to happen but everyone has hope. But when you ask people what does the future look like? They just can't tell you. They can't make a prediction. So it's a real reflection of just how many unknowns there are right now. And I think we can listen to some of the people that I spoke to you now. This is a kind of a mix-back of course. Celebration is there. There are some supporters as well. They're mourning the death of the leader and other generals or other officials. It's hard to

10:35predict but maybe they're under last legs. He was quiet but there was a fire that was near our home and our home just shaking like air cream and that was terrible. Yeah actually it is not good. It's not good for me but the result is important now. The bombing our country is not good. How would you feel if they were bombing your whole country? Nothing. They can't do a thing through your own. You obviously feel very passionately about it. What's the mood among your neighbors, your friends? Everybody feels the same way. It doesn't mean that something is bad has to be replaced with worse. You think Israel or the US care of the least bit about one inch of Turkey or Iran or anywhere else? Emily there's some of the people that you've been talking to on the Turkish Iranian border but let's examine what role Turkey is playing in this conflict. We often

11:35have the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who positions himself as a broker and a mediator and host of talks. We've seen this happen with the Russian Ukrainian conflict but what role does Turkey either wish or not wish to play in this? Exactly as you say there Turkey is very much performing its 360 foreign policy role in this conflict as well. Turkey is a NATO country and no other NATO country has the same depth of contact with what remains inside Iran. Turkey has very close relations with the Iranian government, the regime. They have a very pragmatic relationship. It's based on on trade. There's strong economic ties between the two countries but at the same time Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan also has close ties with the US President Donald Trump and we've heard that reflected in Turkey's statements that it very much wants to stay out of this. It's called the attacks of clear violation of international law adding that Turkey shares the

12:37pain of the Iranian people. So Turkey has a real tricky balancing act here right now and I think one of the big concerns at the moment of the Turks is another refugee crisis. Right now the Iranians coming to Turkey, they're not refugees. They're arriving on these tourist seasons as I said but they're able to come and go freely but the concern is this is a country of over 90 million people and there is concerns in Turkey of a mass refugee exodus if this conflict starts to widen inside Iran if it starts to hit more civilian targets and Turkey already dealt with that with the Syrian conflict. They played host to over four million Syrians over the course of that war and saw the war spill over into their country and they will not want to see this happening with Iran as well. Emily, we're at the Turkish Iranian border. Thank you so much for joining us on Monaco Radio. Still with us and listening to that was Renad Mansor. Welcome back Renad. The unwillingness

13:37of Turkey to get involved in all this is almost reflecting of the wider issue that countries that are very being directly affected by this feeling. We've got this morning the US raising travel warnings for Saudi Arabia for Oman. We have the Israelis telling people in Lebanon to evacuate certain parts because they are carrying out missile attacks. The countries that Iran has wished to draw into the conflict to act almost as a warning system to America, to try to use them to dissuade Washington, to make Washington stop this campaign. How effective is this policy? I think there has been almost a shock. For a very long time you can say there was this understanding of a violence and almost an equilibrium of a violence in which the Gulf states would understand like we saw in the last last year's June war. Perhaps symbolic strikes on US bases in the Gulf that are easily repelled. As a way for Iran to say we have retaliated but not

14:45to stalk any type of regional uncertainty or regional conflict. This has changed. Iran's is no longer playing by the old books which you know obviously Israel and other countries have also not been playing by but Iran has decided no this is a new war this is a new day and this is the war and so Iran has decided not just to use violence symbolically but really to use violence as punishment to attack not just US bases but where it thinks there are US targets including hotels in the Gulf but also on the energy supply gas fields oil fields across the region really to to to to to to say that the Gulf you were trying to stop this war but you couldn't and nothing can stop this war. This is real war and this needs to you know the repercussions of this need to be felt in the region and also in around the world. We're on Admanso from Chatham House thank you for joining us on Monaco Radio. We turn to some other news now because the authorities

16:01in China hold the two most important gatherings in the calendar this week. The so-called two sessions stand for the Chinese people's political consultative conference and the National People's Congress while they are both important events what purpose do they serve this year to tell us all I'm joined by Isabel Hilton China expert in visiting professor at King's College London welcome back Isabel good morning to you. Good morning Emma. Explain to us what the focus is this year because we'll come to whether Iran has and the events in Iran have will affect the way that China deals with it's that's next year but the significance the the purpose of these these double meetings held very close together. The meetings are always important because they're they're there for for people who watch China they're one kind of window into the political process of the two the National People's Congress actually has constitutional power so the National People's Congress if you want to change the constitution as Xi Jinping did a few years back to allow him to stay in office you have to get NPC approval which I have to say hasn't been a problem almost nobody votes against

17:05something that the party wants and the whole kind of political side of the Chinese state has been losing power to the party over Xi Jinping's time in office this year however the significance is largely that the 15th five year plan will be approved by the National People's Congress so we'll get a pretty close look at China's intentions for the next five years it's already been you know fairly visible but this is the final unveiling of the plan and do we know what's in this plan well yes we we have a pretty good idea what's in the plan I mean it's partly continuing as before but it also it's you know continuing as before in the sense that China has since 2015 been trying to make itself proof against adverse currents coming from outside in other words from the United States so it has been as we know securing its supply chains it's been focusing on exports on industrial autonomy and on innovation and those trends will definitely continue we also it would

18:11appear that the Chinese are are trying to address a long-running problem as that this model has created which are that the economy is slowing down they have been trying for 10 years to create a robust internal market but people still are not spending money because households have too little a share of the national wealth so people are reluctant to spend that means China remains dependent on on exporting and that is creating tensions around the world as as you know the flood of cheap and and increasingly high quality and high value Chinese goods is posing serious challenge to other industrial economies so the failure to correct the internal market is creating international tensions and we will see more efforts to try to correct that in the current five in the upcoming five-year plan in that context is about what role does the conflict in Iran play that given the fact that China's dependence on Iran's Iranian oil is significant isn't it and also if you have

19:17import export issues and you have the sheer logistics of the world shipping lanes being you know having to move quickly to try and accommodate things that are happening in the straight-off or moves what does China need to do well the sheer logistics are probably the most immediate concern for China it's true that China almost all of Iran's oil was going to China as was Venezuela and collectively they made up about 20% of of China's oil imports China however has been stockpiling oil it's got about a hundred days of oil stock which doesn't mean that it doesn't have an effect on the economy but it's not an immediate crisis it was also supplies of things like fertilizer were also very important and shipping is absolutely vital to China as a major export economy again we see over the past few years China's diversification of of shipping

20:19routes so it's interest in the Arctic for example is is one way of avoiding the potential choke points like the Straits of of whole moves it's secured ports around the world it has in terms of energy being built in pipeline so that it's not entirely dependent on sea-borne imports so we there's a certain amount of built-in resilience but as we see from Chinese commentary on this it it thoroughly disapproves of this way of conducting affairs Wang Yi the the Politburo member and and Acting Foreign Minister has been making a lot of phone calls and in a long statement he he said that the point of military strength is to prevent war not to launch assaults on other countries in grave violations of sovereignty so that's a fairly predictable position from from China but one I think that will you know get some echoes around the world Isabel Hilton China expert in visiting professor at King's College London thank you

21:23as ever for joining us on the globalist still to come on today's program it's not often that I'm blown away by hearing experience but this has left me with my jaw on the floor the culture is so respectful it's so unique but the landscape's taken breath away we hear about trends for the luxury travel market in 2026 stay tuned craft is a matter of perspective a unique outlook an obsessive attention to detail with UBS's chief investment offers house view we're focused on identifying the latest investment opportunities and market risks to help you achieve your financial goals so you get the big picture broken down into thought-provoking insights delivered daily and curated by over 200 globally connected locally active analysts UBS banking is out craft let's have a look at today's newspapers it's so what 721 here in London so green of

22:25alt is Westminster editor at the lead and he's doing what we're all trying to do is just to keep up with the headlines yes it's absolutely it's astonishing the scale at which the things are changing absolutely so what we will do is we will take a step back we will pause and we'll talk about the things that we can talk about we don't like you to change in the next 10 minutes one of which Zoe is Donald Trump giving summer a massive thump in the stomach yesterday absolutely so we know that Donald Trump is partial to expressing exactly how he feels about someone in the moment but thus far the Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been able to avoid the wrath of Donald Trump but things have changed quite quickly the special relationships in sort of deteriorated quite rapidly since Starmer refused to join the US's initial strikes on Iran Donald Trump has been ringing around various newspapers in the US as well as the UK he told the Sun on Monday that the relationship is obviously not what it was he said that Keir Starmer is not

23:29Winston Churchill which you know it's quite obvious but as we know Winston Churchill is kind of a bit of a hero here in the UK so it definitely feels like a personal attack he's just been very very critical of Keir Starmer quite publicly in a press conference and to the various newspapers and is basically said that he's not happy with the UK he's spoken about the UK's refusal to let the US use the Chego Islands base and has just been talking about how the relationship is deteriorating this is going to be a massive blow to Keir Starmer who has thus far done his best to try and keep Donald Trump on site indeed and people have expressed surprise as an article in the Times today which explicitly asks the question it's Katie Borseng it's a special relationship dead why Trump turned on Britain but the context of this is very very significant isn't it firstly Keir Starmer recognizes the damage done to both the net Labour Party and the British International Reputation in 2003 which Tony Blair and and going in with George Bush into Iraq

24:30this is that this is and he has explicitly said we're not doing this again but when we've seen what the other countries are doing as well Emmanuel Macron has said we're not living in on this Spain has just come in and said we're not diving in on this one other countries are now saying this is a violation of international law and one wonders whether a shouting match between Donald Trump and and Keir Starmer is actually something which is permanent and and threatening or whether it is just something that can and we have seen has been recovered from I think that's absolutely right I mean there's also a question of actually is it beneficial to Keir Starmer right now domestically politically to have this kind of conflict with Donald Trump Trump is not popular here the papers might be lapping up his comments but actually voters don't really like Donald Trump and the they definitely I mean the the majority shows that they don't want the UK to join the U.S. on striking Iran so and Starmer has been struggling and we saw this in the by-election last week with hemorrhaging support to the left obviously the Greens won this Goten and Dentre constituency from

25:33Labour I think Keir Starmer might be making a calculation now that actually if he's got the bolstering of support from European allies and voters then he may as well have a have it out with Donald Trump let's focus on an article about for a lot of me is a lensky president of Ukraine and probably being pushed to the sidelines at the moment but he has come out speaking very clearly saying fit the what what is happening in Iran could actually hurt Ukraine you first and foremost Russia okay there is there is this fear about the amount of drones and the supply of armaments the Russians could have as Iran is using its own drones to defend itself but Russia is really really good when it comes to making money when there is no oil anywhere else absolutely so Vladimir Zelensky has told an Italian newspaper that he worries that Ukraine could find themselves having difficulty obtaining missiles and weapons to defend our skies and he because the Americans and the allies in the Middle East might need them to defend themselves he also worries about focus

26:36being turned to the Iranian crisis if this becomes a long war will you know the appetite to continue defending Kiev and Ukraine will that diminish if the focus from western nations is elsewhere and I think this is a really real fear from Zelensky as you said not just because Russia can also make some hay out of the disruption to the all supply but also because when focus is put elsewhere that is a perfect time for other strongmen leaders with expansionist agendas to try and make some gains so you can see why Zelensky would be very concerned okay let's move on to an article in the Guardian asking the question with three months in now since Australia decided to ban the use of social media to children teenagers under 16 and no one's quite worked out whether it works yet yeah the title is hasn't been a success and as you just suggested the answer is we don't know because it hasn't been long enough so the initial figures show that 4.7 million accounts were removed under the ban and this includes things like TikTok YouTube Instagram Facebook and Twitch

27:36but there is going to be an evaluation of the ban it's going to last two years run by the E-safety commissioner it's going to look at schools it's going to look at kids families it's going to do some surveying what they've seen at the moment is that there has been some evidence obviously that young people have come off social media the president Albanese said that he was the prime minister sorry Albanese said he saw more children outside over Christmas which was quite interesting but when you talk to kids I mean they're finding ways around it which is always what people will worry about yes precisely and the tech savvy more importantly indeed indeed excellent article in the Guardian where there's some sort of exquisitely elegant young people all saying circumventing the social media ban was so much easier than we thought we would be they're all hooking up on LinkedIn brilliant idea okay finally it the times if you're a devil worshipper for all of the devil worshippers out there listening to Monaco Radio obviously thank you for your time and your devotion but by all accounts there are images and AI is something that the

28:37are some things that the devil worshippers are really going to town with yes so if you are a devil worshipper listening to Monaco Radio and you're using artificial intelligence the exorcist are on to you they know what you're doing so there is an exorcism conference with many speakers and apparently they're going to put AI sort of at front of center of their concern they say that AI is already being used to generate images of children involved in satanic rituals they're worried about these groups using AI to communicate with each other online and bypass usual forms of surveillance but I think more broadly this is an article about how the church is regarding AI and it talks about Pope Leo has been quite vocal in warning that AI is a risk it's rubbing people of their privacy their jobs and of course he wanted to be named after Pope Leo who fought for workers rights because he believes that AI could strip workers of their dignity and worries that extremely rich people who investing in artificial intelligence are totally ignoring the value of human beings and of humanity so there is a slightly silly element to this but actually more broadly clearly the church

29:42are becoming more and more concerned about AI well yes I mean let's let's let's let's explore both elements at first and foremost you said there's going to be a thing in Rome there's going to be an exorcism course in May and speakers who are booked to address the audience at the may event don't say we're not helpful to you Monaco Radio listeners further Fort Tornado denota a Sicilian priest who fights satanists we also have another speaker be a Tricicoligolini who's an academic or talk about how occult groups in Italy are using AI to generate the symbols they use in their rights it is believed that there are 263 occult groups in Italy I wonder who's keeping sort of a tally of this yeah but also it had a the the Vatican had a conference on AI AI last week I'm absolutely fascinated by the agenda being set by the Vatican when they sit down I don't know you have first a January going right what do we want to talk about this year what what what's what's getting you you know what's getting your your your interest yeah and I do want to make a picture

30:42now I'm a freelance journalist if anyone wants to commission me to go to the AI exorcism conference to do a big write-up hey that sounds amazing right absolutely who knows what will they say but it is an important thing about that and the purpose raised a really really good point here in the middle of all this silliness because the pictures in the times are very fun the Pope has said that he now wants to renew the battle as AI threatens to strip workers of their dignity and this idea of the creation of a sort of a new society when the ultra richer able to invest in AI and ignore the value of human beings and of humanity there's a really gentle beauty to that absolutely and I think it is you know this is a Pope that has been particularly progressive and has been trying to kind of anchor the conversations that offered and get taken away by the rich Silicon Valley billionaires or you know the questions about how much responsibility we have for each other he's trying to ground it in those kind of progressive values again and obviously workers rights has been a big part of that throughout history so it's nice that the Pope's on at the side of the people who don't want AI to run riot so green of our Westminster editor at

31:46the lead and if you are wanting to hire Zoe to do the AI satanism conference she's available for bookings I'll do it for free you'll do it for free you'll do it for free everybody never say that and you're listening to the Glyphilis thank you Zoe a quick look now at some of the other stories we're following today the international price of oil and of gas have risen again as concerns grow that supplies could be affected by the conflict in Iran yesterday Brent crude briefly surpassed $85 a barrel for the first time since July 2024 Myanmar's hunter says it's to ration the use of private cars as part of fears over the supply of fuel under a new even odd licensing scheme even numbered plates would only be allowed to drive on even dates and odd license plates on odd numbered days and prosecutors in Cuba have charged six people with terrorism in connection with an incident last week aboard a speedboat

32:49four Cuban nationals were killed six others were wounded as they entered Cuban waters and opened fire on a border guard vessel this is the globalist stay tuned six months after a youth led uprising led to the fall of its government Nepal holds its first major elections nearly 19 million voters in the landlocked Himalayan nation have registered to cast their ballots so what kind of test of democracy are we just about to see well dinash kafler is an academic and journalist in Nepal he writes a regular column on politics and culture for the Kathmandu post and he joins me now from pakara which is about 200 kilometers west of Kathmandu where he's traveling to cover the election a very good afternoon to dinash thank you for joining us thank you Emma just explain to us what is happening pakaran in pakaran now why is it why have you been taken there uh yeah i've come for two reasons first is to cover elections but also to cast my vote because i belong here um so and this is interesting

33:53this time earlier i used to be in Kathmandu during the elections to cover the elections but this time i came to poker because it is a high-stake election and it's a shame not to go and cast vote at home even if you're doing your job so there is this euphoria about the elections where everyone is going home Kathmandu is emptied right now because it's a city of migrants so everyone seems to have gone home the the government has recorded that almost one million people have gone home to cast their votes so everyone is back in their home hometowns to cast their votes and that's why i'm here apart from doing my job here i did and describe the the you mentioned as a feeling of euphoria what is what is bringing this about uh this is basically a euphoria of chains uh almost one million new voters are there especially the genji who have registered the first time so everyone is excited about bringing chains so the entire narrative about the election is is a narrative of

34:59chains this time and that's why the euphoria so just explain to us that this huge change that came about it started off six months ago where young people took to the streets furious of what they believed to be a government that was was corrupt was not on their side and they managed to enact very profound change in the poll didn't they right right they did explain to us a little bit about what happened next uh yeah after that we had a new government hated by a former chief justice and the government has done a pretty good job of organizing the elections although it has not worked very well in terms of punishing the conflicts of the September eight and nine events so there is also some kind of a disappointment that one of the commissions that that was supposed to bring out the basically the names of the conflicts it didn't do its job properly but then the government has also played safe because obviously some of the major political parties

36:04leaders will they will be implicated in the commissions report so it seems that the government does not want to disturb the elections so the fear of elections not being not happening has been dispelled now that we are in the election mood so yeah it's a it's a bit of a sweet experience but then the the entire country is now ready to go into elections and elect a new government and that's why it's kind of positive although there have been some negative sides indeed I mean there are Nepal is a country where obviously the the voice of young people can enact profound change so when it we'd look into the elections are there young names on the ballot paper yeah there are so many young people who have who are suggesting the elections this time almost 30% of the new candidates are new and young and the age of 40 and so the entire election

37:11is about bringing in changes and also one of the interesting things that's happening here is that the young people who were now a neighbor understood to be interested in elections or politics they are now very much interested in politics and participating in politics and they're also trying to convince the older generation that they should vote for the new and so I was talking to my dad this morning he's 87 years old he has voted for just a single party his entire life and this time he's planning to change his vote and that's the new change that's the euphoria of things that I was talking about my mother is also she has also decided the same so everybody seems to be talking about bringing in new people whether it's from the established political parties themselves or the new ones especially the the new new ones seem to have a better advantage here because that the entire idea of change is bringing in new people

38:14Denish Kefler thank you so much for joining us on the line from your hometown of Pekara that was Denish Kefler academic and journalist based in Nepal you're listening to the globalist live on monocle radio now recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered debate far beyond the Middle East in Taiwan the killing of Iran's supreme leader has sparked discussion about security let's hear the reaction from Taiwan to the conflict I'm joined now by Brian Hyer the founding editor of new blue magazine good afternoon thanks for having me the issue of what is happening in the Middle East can sometimes feel like a very very long way away from various parts of the world where you are included how much is what's happening in Iran touching life in Taiwan yeah I think that's perceived as the latest world in the Middle East but it has wide ranging impacts particularly regarding perception of the US power whether with this or the seizure of the Venezuelan president equals Maduro in January show the US is in fact able to kill or

39:18kidnap world leaders that's how far military projection goes so fears are that China could do that to Taiwan but questions are if this show of military might by the US would deter China and does what is happening in Iran and what has happened in Venezuela as you mentioned actually make the Taiwanese feel safer that's the paradox I think that from some particularly more pro independence leaning parts of the political spectrum that is the case and so this is detected actually in a rather positive light showing again how powerful the US is framed as a reciprocal action in fact that for example Iran had hostilities for the US since eventually the US was finally pushed to do this and then talk is that this was slapping the face to China because Iran has perceived as closer to China and what questions is this now asked about what the United States would do where China to actually do any mount any sort of large scale military operation against Taiwan is there a sense that actually the

40:20the United States would write to the rescue because taking on Venezuela is one thing taking on Iran we have seen has caused widespread complications right across them at least but to try to take on China that is something completely different absolutely as you say and so actually I am slightly worried because I think that may be the wrong takeaway that people have from this so I think there are those that takes us as reassuring but the US would not able to engage in such acts as regarding China it's very different economy of scale between again Venezuela Iran and the US in China and so I think there is that concern but this is often what the general public will read international relations as this through this very narrow lens of the tension of China or how this impact Taiwan China relations or the US when it goes into another situation geopolitically I think people don't always perceive how this is not always seen as reassuring by the rest of the world and indeed when Taiwan is actually assessing its own military capability and its own approach

41:22to defence and it has you know and indeed military cooperation with countries like Israel how have the events in Iran actually made Taiwan reassess what it does itself so it is very interesting because Taiwan is very quick to align itself with the US and Israel regarding the saying that Iran's actions against other countries are a form of aggression donating 100,000 USD for example to Israel for medical aid and so Taiwan has been very quick to insert itself that's an ally of the US and Israel here and I think this is again continuing the pattern of banking on US power historically the US has always been Taiwan's security guarantor from the threat of Chinese invasion Brian Haya the founding editor of New Bloom magazine thank you so much for joining us on the line from Taiwan iQ EQ and AI three components key to the craft of innovation at UBS because to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving age you need a partner with decades of experience

42:29endless passion for the work and a finger on the pulse of leading technologies bridging human expertise with artificial intelligence all to elevate you UBS banking is our craft now let's have a look at the latest news from the world of television to tell us more I'm joined by Scott Bryan TV critic and broadcaster a very good morning to you Scott welcome back morning very good morning to you and let's talk about the paramount Warner Brothers deal last week netflix decided that it no longer wanted to play it so that it couldn't make any money out of the deal now netflix has actually decided to issue a bit of a warning saying that the paramount Warner Brothers deal will lead to job losses talk us through it yeah so netflix code chief executive Greg Peters says that he is nervous about potential job losses following these guidance deal

43:34of course Warner Brothers Discovery has been very much in the air in terms of its future over the course of the last few months and now paramount skydance who also own CBS have now sort of taken in after having a really quite eye-watering offer of more than 111 billion so I think netflix are now doing essentially a PR tour essentially just saying that in the reasons why they didn't go ahead with the deal they just didn't think it was financially sustainable but also highlighting the the implications that it will mean for hollywood and stating that there will be possible job losses potentially you know at least initially six billion in in cuts I mean I guess the cynic around might say well if netflix were going to swoop in and purchase warners then what you know what difference would there have been that would have been cuts anyway I think it also adds to the fact that regardless of who was going to be the owner I think

44:36there has been a lot of concern within hollywood about you know whoever was going to own the company how that would have implications in terms of the future of the hollywood film industry of course if netflix were going to purchase it I think people were concerned about the long generation future of cinemas so I guess I guess there's a lot of question marks about about this generally I guess also question marks in regards to you know what that will mean for consumers I mean will they end up having to pay more because the significance of this deal the amount of debt the company has had to take on purely just to make it food door in terms of the financial deal you know it is nothing like it has been in recent years it's a considerable amount of money indeed I mean there are always questions during mergers and acquisitions M&A whether actually any money is made out of this that stock prices do go up but is netflix the right organisation to ask these questions right now well I mean I think that that's the big question I think people would say well what difference

45:39would have been on the netflix potentially I think netflix it's interesting in terms of how they were having they were going to be purchasing in a potentially arrival you know HBO in terms of where that would be heading I think what is interesting is how what we've heard is that paramount and HBO in the US I've got essentially going to be merged onto one app as in the HBO max app however HBO is going to be treated independently of that I mean it was going to be the case that if netflix had purchase warners then of course you know HBO max will be launching in the UK relatively soon and I think there are a lot of questions about the future of that if netflix is essentially going to be it its owner of course that's not the case anymore but I think we are as we have been in recent years because of the threat of you know AI in terms of that have been already a lot of existential concerns about job security job futures and I think this consolidation within the

46:40market regardless of who the owner is going to be is only going to exacerbate those concerns it's a big balance there isn't a consolidation yet allowing organizations to operate with independence and we're seeing you know already the announcer paramounts guidance wants to combine paramount plus an HBO max into one streaming service arguably simpler for people with remote controls trying to navigate their way through their television but actually what does this make do for what should we're going to be watching well I think for HBO max I mean it will have you know quite a lot of content on there it will get boosted I mean content on HBO max will include a lot of the back catalog of warners it will also include upcoming series such as Harry Potter they've also got the not in the US but in Europe with the Olympics as well so the access to sports rights is absolutely huge and linked with paramount you've got all of the Tom Cruise movies you've also got links to

47:40a lot of sort of upcoming and sort of programs tied to CBS as well but I think a concern is of you know we away past the period of kind of streaming apps able to provide choice I mean they all hooked us in on a very small amount of money very affordable and I think there's now been quite a consolidation that to have access to the shows you like you are going to have to pay for it and I found it rather surprising that you know just in the last month the UK's sort of subscription service satellite service sky are now offering a deal to have access to all of these streaming apps Netflix Disney Plus Hulu and more under one fee essentially a cable package which is back where we started ten years ago finally let's touch on the the struggles that the BBC has an organisation beset with its own problems perpetually but it can't find a successor to the director general without what's been reported fairly recently I mean it has been of course

48:43months now since we've had the announcement that Tim Davie the current director general is standing down and it's a crucial time for the BBC's future of course with the license fee negotiation coming up you know that essentially is the deal about how much the consumers like viewing public will be having to pay for their license so it's a critical time of course the BBC has been going through a whole lot of scandals in relation to the BAFTA film awards fairly recently and it seems to be according to some reporting that they are finding it hard to find a new person to take over the role just because I guess the challenge is to headwinds the fact that you could end up dominating the front pages of newspapers can actually maybe create a career liability so some names such as Alex Mahan who recently ran Channel 4 along with Charlotte Moore who used to be the head of TV at the BBC they're not included in the overall shortlist they were tipped to be there is some hype around Matt Britain who is a former Google exec but so far there doesn't really seem to be you need to have somebody I find with British broadcasting experience

49:47and of course he has a tech background so there's some skepticism there so it's a real wait and see as well paid but is it long lasting for them Scott Bryan thank you as ever for joining us on Monaco Radio to give us all the updates from the world of television we touch upon the world of luxury travel now because that black tomato based between London and New York truly goes the extra mile from chartering yachts through Antarctic water booking helicopters and secured two secluded islands and much more their co-founder is Tom Marchand and he's spoken to

50:47Fernando Augusto Pacheco about the travel trends in 2026 and what destinations are on the rise the world is in a state of flux places for multitudes of reasons become popular than fade away some are like the external factors in our geopolitical I mean if we're looking at this year places that are I'm always ready to say emerging because I'm sure lots of your listeners will all know these places but I think places that we have a keen eye on we do a lot into central America a Panama particularly just has the most incredible properties and experiences there that combination of kind of both the Latin and Caribbean coast to one place and we've been working in the area for a long time but the quality of experiences really really increased and improved and it's been fantastic last year and I I still hope this year will continue to be a growing popular place is Greenland which I know is very topical given what's being discussed out there but we you know Iceland it's near neighbor has been you know cornerstone of our company since we started I must have been there myself 20 25 times I almost feel Icelandic and Greenland

51:47you know is this incredibly wild roar and elemental place but has it almost has like this sort of final frontier feel to it and we've been working over there developing experience with our partners for a long time and last year we've been well for a number of years been taking people but we've really seen that growing interest now people are still keen today I'm not sure whether people are putting plans on hold I've very much hope they're not I can't recommend that hardly enough another area that I'm a huge fan of is the southern end of Chile I say Chile because that's you know Chile for the Brits Chile for the American audience I'm a huge fan of South America growing up I always wanted to explore Chile I was just fascinated by the contrast between the Atacorn and the North and then the wine regions in the centre and then getting down into southern Patagonia and down in the south in the southern Patagonia National Park there is the most incredible area which has an explorer hotel it just opened a couple of years ago it was Doug Tompkins the founder of North Face and a spree it was his lodge where he had been building out

52:50a conservation area to protect the indigenous floor and floor and environment and I've been down there and it's it's like no other place on the world and slowly people begin to visit it but it's like being dropped onto another planet and Patagonia itself is great but if you go up into Argentina it might be you know there's a few more people around this place in the middle of nowhere and if you if you seek isolation or freedom or just a proper sense of disconnection around a landscape that will blow your mind daily that's a great place to look at. You mentioned isolation I was looking at your website of course it's divided if you want some for family honeymoon but there's the solo holidays as well I'm fascinated by it because I think sometimes that's what people need in their lives as well right I personally I prefer to travel either in smaller groups or with a partner not with a big group of friends to be honest but solo I'd never actually done it. It's interesting I like both quite often I think travel is a not all the time but sometimes travel is the antidote to your day-to-day and and you're looking you know if you travel like maybe

53:52you want to do something different but and what we see quite often the solo travelers is you might be living a an incredibly hectic work social life at home and what that means is you rarely get time with your own thoughts and that might scare some people but I just think time alone to think to not be distracted both by connecting with other people as much as I like the culture in place so I think you need to like I said that culture is non-negotiable but you can still have that hit in isolation and I think we see the solo travelers people who want to take themselves away be with their own thoughts but also to then sometimes push themselves you know so you might be traveling solo not in a wilderness but in a new destination and the sort of anticipation and this like you know at times anxiety of what I'm gonna have to push myself to do so it brings parts of you out that perhaps you're not doing at home because you're very comfortable so there's a lot of reason to be said for it and I always try and fit in a couple of trips a year where I just go my own somewhere because it makes a bit braver and if you're in a busting place to go out and

54:54connect with people but also to go to wildernesses like Iceland particularly where I'll go and might go you know hiking on my own and just 48 hours of relative silence and your own thoughts I think is a pretty good tonic for the soul what about your personal travel plan for the year I mean is there any place that you haven't visited that you perhaps you would like to go this year yeah I'm sure you visited many places so it's always a tough one because I'm very fortunate in the position I'm in that part of what we do is to explore the world so we can introduce it to our clients I think you probably sent you from when I talk about chili like one type of travel I love is the great expanses you're like a winter holiday yeah well my mother some Finland so it's one thing sort of in the roots but we take a lot of people to Mongolia but I've I've never been and I was I met someone recently whose family are from a particular very very remote part of of Mongolia deep in the step and where there's a sacred valley that they only have access to and you go up there and you spend days riding on horseback you know setting up camps and it's

55:59it's not often that I'm almost like blown away by hearing experience because I'm around this the whole time and it's a it's a great position to be in but to hear all that quite often I'm like okay it sounds good maybe but this has left me with my jaw on the floor and every client we ever take out to Mongolia whatever they're doing there comes back with that wow I didn't think I'd be moved as much as I was the culture is so respectful it's so unique but the landscapes take your breath away so I'm trying at the moment negotiating with business and family plans to see if I can get out into Mongolia in step Tom Marchen there from Black Tomato he was talking to Monaco's Fernanda Augusto Pacheco and you can also read our interview with Tom on Monaco's travel annual the escapist which is out now and that's all the time we have for today's program the warmest of thanks to all my guests and to the producers Colotta Rebello Angelica Jopson and Rima Takahashi our researchers analyst Maynard and our studio manager is Kristi O'Grady with editing assistance by Lily Austin after the headlines as more music on the way the briefings live at midday here in London I'll be back with the globe list at the same time tomorrow join me for that if you can

57:00but for now for me Emma Nelson goodbye thank you very much for listening with UBS you have a truly global partner incorporating new technologies innovative approaches and unexpected opportunities leading you to insights that help answer the questions that matter

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