Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise.

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2:20Good Monday morning and welcome to the Tangle podcast. The place we get views from across the political spectrum. Some independent thinking a little bit of my take. I'm your host Isaac Saul back in New Jersey after a week of oysters, lobster, campfires, family time, talking about the future with the Tangle team and Maine. It was the first time we ever included family at a staff retreat. And the net effect was a level of bonding. I don't really think we've ever unlocked before. There are many good things ahead. Super excited about what we have on the roadmap for us. And speaking of team bonding, we're all together and had a key did what moment when the president speaking at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas promised $5,000 checks to every American, which is the focus of today's newsletter. Plus a reader question about logging in National Forest, which are white students going to come on the pod to answer. With that, I'm going to head over to editor Audrey Morehead who's going to break down today's

3:23main topic and I'll be back for my take. Thanks Isaac. First up, we have today's quick hits. Number one, and drop XCEO Dario Amade, published an essay calling for a worldwide slowdown in artificial intelligence development. Saying the technology is advancing at an unsafe pace. Open AI CEO Sam Altman, SpaceX CEO, Elon Musk, and DeepMind Chairman Demise Sabis endorsed Amade's message. Number two, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index increased 0.4% on a monthly basis in August and 3.4% on an annual basis in line with economists expectations. Number three, fighting between the Yemeni government and Iran backed Houthi rebels continued through the weekend. After the Houthis captured a key Yemeni port city and an island in the Bab El Mandibs straight, in addition to striking Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. Number four, the leaders of Scotland,

4:27Wales, and Northern Ireland met on Monday to discuss a plan to potentially leave the United Kingdom, declaring that the UK government should prepare for a change. Number five, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that the U.S. cyclosporiasis outbreak is over, ending the country's largest known outbreak of the illness. If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000. At the Republican Party's inaugural midterm convention on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said that his administration will send $5,000 to every U.S. adult citizen if the GOP retains control of the House and Senate in November's elections. The President called the Trump dividend a way for Americans to share in the economic strength that would result

5:31from Republican governance. A White House statement released after the speech said, quote, like a successful company returning cash to its shareholders, the Trump dividend is only possible because of President Trump. In a second term, he has unleashed trillions in new private investment, launched an unprecedented crackdown on government waste and rebuilt American strength at home. That success belongs to the American people. With roughly 250 million U.S. adult citizens, the dividends would cost over $1.2 trillion, and dispersing the payments would likely require an act of Congress, though the President suggested that approval may not be necessary. On Sunday, House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed openness to the idea but did not endorse it, telling NBC, quote, Congress will work through it and find consensus on that, like they have to do everything else. And quote, separately, Vice President J.D. Vance said that terror for revenue could cover part or all of the dividends while also suggesting that wealthy Americans may not be eligible to receive them. Democrats criticized the proposal as an attempted bribe. Representative Daniel

6:34Goldman of New York called the promise corrupt and blatantly illegal, and representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland said it was a political bribe. Others dismissed the idea as unserious. Many economists also expressed concerns, citing the rising national debt and persistent inflation above the federal reserve's target rate. Michael strain director of economic policy studies that the American Enterprise Institute said, quote, Mr. Trump's proposal would be worse than the Biden COVID-19 stimulus, in the sense that in 2026, the economy already has an inflation problem. Trump would be pouring gasoline on lit inflationary embers and hoping it wouldn't ignite. End quote. Today, you'll hear from the left and the right on President Trump's dividend proposal, followed by executive editor Isaac Solz take. We'll be right back after this quick break.

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8:51Hey everyone, quick thought before we get started. If you listen to tangle, it's probably because you're trying to escape the media echo chamber. But even when you read broadly, it's hard to see which stories are being emphasized and which ones are being ignored. This episode is brought to you by Ground News. Ground news is not a publisher. It's an app and website that gathers reporting on every news story from across the political spectrum and shows you each outlets bias rating, factuality rating, and who owns it. It's more than just an aggregator. It gives you context on every perspective in one place so that you can make up your own mind. For example, a recent story about a bipartisan border deal collapsing was covered by 50 plus outlets. One left-leaning headline read GOP sinks border deal under Trump pressure while right-leaning one said Democrats blocked stronger border enforcement. Same event, very different framing. Ground news lets you compare that instantly and even flags blind spots, stories disproportionately covered by one side. If you want unlimited access to these features, subscribe to the Vantage plan for 40% off at

9:51groundnews.com slash TN. That's groundnews.com slash TN promo code TN. Again, groundnews.com slash TN code TN for 40% off. If you care about seeing the full picture, I think you'll really value this tool. First up, we have an agreed section today. Riders on the left and the right are skeptical of Trump's promise, with most of them viewing it as inflationary and implausible. Now, what the left is saying, the left opposes the proposal, with many saying the dividends are economically unwise. Some call the announcement a distraction from Trump's record. Others criticize the idea, but defend Trump's freedom to propose it. In the Atlantic, David A. Graham argued everything Trump wants to do causes inflation. Injecting more than $1 trillion into the economy, wouldn't just blow up the deficit and national debt. It would also drive up prices. Giving every American $5,000 to spend would create demand that couldn't immediately be met,

10:56encouraging sellers to raise prices. I could quote lots of economists from Left, Right, and Center, who have already said that the payouts would be inflationary. But you could also just take it from Trump himself, who has repeatedly blamed inflation on high spending during the Biden administration. A paradox at this moment is that inflation is a big reason for Trump's cratering approval and his party's sinking odds in the midterm elections. But nearly every one of signature policy ideas is inflationary. Perhaps Trump doesn't understand that his ideas will drive up prices. Perhaps he does, but concludes that dangling free money in front of voters is worth the hit. Either way, new numbers released on September 11th show that inflation rose 3.4% from one year ago. In Bloomberg, Mark Gongloff suggested the proposal wastes considerable time and brainpower. The very fact that this idea has been the subject of earnest discussion for the past several hours makes it at least enough of a reality to be dangerous. It's easy enough to guess that Trump's goal Wednesday night wasn't to spark an intellectual debate about the merits of a $5,000

11:58dividend or the intricacies of campaign finance law. More likely, it was to distract everybody, however briefly, from his many spectacular failures, all of which explain why his Republican party faces the risk of a generational wipeout in November. The examples of this are legion, and they grow by the day. When Trump renames things on the map, it's not because of a lifelong interest in cartography. He's the class clown who, once he discovers that a bit gets a laugh, will hammer that bit again and again until it's dead. Anything to make you not think for five minutes about the implications of a self-harming trade war with our closest neighbor ally and trading partner, or about how Trump's trade was actually functioning just fine before the self-harming war war with Iran. In the San Francisco Chronicle, Airwinter Murinsky said Trump's promise is protected speech. President Donald Trump's promise to provide $5,000 to all adult Americans that the Republicans keep control of both houses of Congress sounds like an offer of a bribe, but it is speech protected by the First Amendment. Federal law makes it illegal to make

13:00or offer to make an expenditure to any person to induce them to cast a vote with hold a vote or vote for or against a specific candidate. Trump statements did not relate to the election of any specific candidate, but instead promised the dividend for Republicans' one majorities in the House and the Senate. More importantly, Trump's pledge was the type of speech that is common among candidates for office, which is protected by the First Amendment. Political candidates constantly pledge what they will do if elected to benefit their constituents. I find Trump's promise to be unseemly and absurd. It is effectively trying to buy votes from people by telling them they will get a significant amount of money if they vote Republican. It's also misleading because it implies that Trump could do something that he does not have the power to do, but under the First Amendment, even outrageous campaign promises are constitutionally protected speech. Now what the right is saying, many on the right also oppose Trump's promise, with some saying

14:04that the payments would increase financial stress for Americans. Some called the announcement effective midterm messaging for the president. Others suggest the MAGA movement is floundering. The Washington Examiner editorial board argued against Trump's $5,000 bribe. Trump's promise is to send every adult citizen a $5,000 check, but only if Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate should be treated as what it is. Pure political theatre with no real world relationship to what Trump's actual legislative agenda would be should Republicans beat the odds and maintain control of both chambers of Congress. Voters and over the less have every reason to be frustrated with the economy. Inflation has eaten away purchasing power, energy prices are rising, and housing affordability is again deteriorating. A $5,000 check may look like relief from those pressures, but if roughly 260 million adult citizens received one, the price tag would approach $1.3 trillion. Vice President J.D. Vance has suggested tariff revenue could help finance the plan, but existing tariff collections fall far short of the amount required.

15:08Without offsetting spending cuts, much of the difference would therefore be borrowed, which would drive inflation even higher. If Republicans do somehow pull off an electoral upset, they should oppose Trump's plan or identify the $1.3 trillion in cuts to pay for it. In P.J. media, Scott Pinsker called Trump's speech a PR masterstroke. The GOP's dilemma is obvious. Over the long term, there's no way in hell the Republican Party can compete with the socialists in the free government giveaway game. So Trump offers every adult $5,000. The socialists offer free healthcare, education, childcare, housing, groceries, transportation, clothing, job training, and obama phone, and most of Elon Musk's money, because billionaires shouldn't exist, you know. Where does it end? Bottom line, the giveaway game is an unsustainable GOP strategy. Policy concerns aside, the PR fallout of Trump's announcement with dramatic. Swift said in an utterly seismic, it was an absolute game changer. In just one speech, President Trump reset the course of the entire 2026 midterms. Because of Trump's speech,

16:12the focus now isn't on what we lack, but what we're going to get. But eventually, the Dems will figure out that their best line of counter-programming isn't to attack it legally. So they'll pivot to this. Trump's promise doesn't mean anything, because he's a liar who won't deliver. After all, he promised us $5,000 checks before, and they never arrived. In recent, Eric Bohm said the proposal shows MAGA is out of ideas. Vice President Vance's response is, in many ways, more important than Trump's ridiculous pitch. That Vance is willing to play ball with such a ridiculous, unconcervative, visibly irresponsible idea is telling. After all, the Vice President likes to position himself as a serious thoughtful critic of the political and economic status quo. His supporters see him as the heir apparent to Trump, the guy with the political and policy chops to make this populist movement stick and to redefine their Republican Party and the conservative movement for the next generation. This entire incident exposes how completely out of ideas the entire Trump political project is. The President promised that he would make life more affordable and

17:14that tariffs would deliver a golden age for Americans, but the reality has fallen well short. Now, the President is literally promising to throw money at the problem and Vance's dutifully playing along. This is the inevitable end of all populist movements, which begin by promising easy solutions to complex problems and eventually collapse when those solutions are revealed to be griffs or oversimplifications. That's it for what the left and right are saying. Now I'll pass it back to Isaac for his take. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying which brings us to my take. Unsurprisingly, this proposal did not garner a lot of unequivocal support. I think the biggest reason for the idea's lack of defenders is our current economic situation. We are still fighting inflation and our national debt has been increasing and $5,000 payouts would almost certainly increase both inflation and the national debt. Add in the upcoming midterms and

18:20the whole idea feels even more untoward and unrealistic. I don't know that I have a whole lot to add to that. Instead, it struck me as an interesting intellectual exercise to make the best case for the $5,000 stimulus checks based on some of the arguments made above and some of them surprise more people aren't making in Trump's defense. First and foremost, politics are already one big giant bride. Definitionally, a bride is money or a favor given or promised in order to influence the judgment or conduct of a person in a position of trust. Saying, vote for us and you'll get X is the most standard form of politics there is. Popular democratic politicians have run on everything from canceling student loan debt to eviction moratoriums to free health care. We'll give you $5,000 cash is far more explicit, but as Erwin Chamorinsky noted under what the left is saying, it's not all that different. Actually, I could argue that cash is better than promising a new government program. It's more efficient and direct and it gives citizens full choice in how they spend those

19:24resources. Listening to Trump, I was reminded of British politician Rory Stewart's TED talk on how giving cash directly is the best way to solve poverty. Which is honestly something doesn't quite sit well with me about Trump's critics all in unison dismissing this as a bribe. Trump was overt, of course. Vote for us and we'll pay you $5,000. But it sounds if he said he'd only cut the check for Republican voters. He offered it to all Americans whether they voted for him or not. Offering money to people only if they vote for your candidate is an obviously illegal quid pro quo offering everyone money, however, is a different legal ball of yarn. In Brown v. Harlidge in 1982 Supreme Court case, they can tucky county commissioner promise to reduce his salary if elected. And the court unanimously drew a line between policy promises and vote buying. Quote, a candidate's promise to confer some ultimate benefit on the voter, Quat taxpayer citizen or member of the general public

20:24does not lie beyond the pale of first amendment protection, Justice William Brennan Jr. wrote. Given that precedent, Trump is almost certainly within the bounds of the law. You might remember Elon Musk wasn't charged for handing out $1 million checks to people during a campaign rally in Wisconsin in exchange for taking the time to vote. Second, Ezair Bome argued under what the right is saying, I'm guessing this idea is pretty popular. If you plucked 100 random voting age Americans off the street and asked them if they'd support $5,000 direct cash payments to all Americans, what percentage would say yes? 50, 65, 85, even if I largely align myself with the pundit class that's unconvinced by policies like this, the gap between how many normy Americans would support this policy and how many pundits are feels notable. Trump's ability to keep his finger on that pulse better than other politicians is one of his defining political strengths. Third, Trump's dividend theory is different from the stimulus theory of cash payments during the pandemic. This isn't supposed

21:27to be financed by borrowed money or taxes, but from payments collected by tariff revenue. It's true that Trump has a big math problem, $167 billion in tariff revenue versus a $1.2 trillion dollar price tag. But the structure of the deal is just different. The president is arguing that we are bringing in new revenue in the form of tariffs, which Kevin McCullough stressed in town hall. Trump's math problem just means the idea requires adjustments. He has to either lower the dividend amount or increase his tariff to match the $1.2 trillion dollar price tag, and he can do this without borrowing more money. So putting all this together, Trump is flexing a standard practice and politics. He's pitching something that is almost certainly popular, and he's proposing paying for it with a source of revenue that his administration has significantly bolstered since he came into office. Of course, the easiest retorts are also obvious. First, there is a difference between proposing popular policies and saying if you keep us in power, we'll cut every American a $5,000 check.

22:29Even if Trump's promise seems legal, I don't think it should be politically palatable. Trump supporters already got him elected twice, and this time with a trifecta. If he thinks this policy would be good for the country, he has the power to enact it now, insisting that Republicans must stay in power for voters to be rewarded is rather off-putting. Additionally, it's one of the sure signals yet that the president recognizes how unpopular his administration is. What kind of polling a Republican seeing that has the head of the party resorting to literally offering people cash to vote for them? How insecure must they feel about running on the president's record? Second, while the proposal might be popular, it's also not novel, even within this presidency. The president floated a doge dividend in February of 2025 that never came to fruition, mostly because doge didn't save anywhere near the money it said it would. He also promised the $2,000 dividend in November of 2025 that would be paid out from tariff revenue. He later revised the timeline for that stimulus from mid-2026 to the end of

23:312026 before ultimately announcing the $5,000 dividend that would only come if Republicans held the House in Senate, which is all just to say he has repeatedly broken his word on purported dividends. Most obviously, if Trump actually wanted to give every American $5,000, Republicans could do it right now. When I asked on Fox News why he wouldn't just cut the checks now, his only response was because Democrats, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Republicans control the House Senate and White House. They have had plenty of success defending their executive excesses before the Supreme Court. There is no reason to wait unless, of course, you were using the money to try to bribe voters because you were very unpopular. Third, this policy proposal would be devastating economically. $5,000 per adult American citizen is as many have noted over $1.2 trillion. Trump plainly does not have the tariff revenue to pay for that, which means he'd have to borrow more money at a time when the interest on our debt is already the federal government's third

24:34largest expense. If he wants to raise tariffs even more, that'd be most devastating for U.S. importers and consumers who are the ones that actually pay them. We now know the post-COVID stimulus was a major driver of inflation that we're still dealing with today. A problem, plenty of economists warned about. Trump himself criticized President Biden's continuation of COVID spending. This would amount to a stimulus package of that size at a time when the economy doesn't require stimulus and inflation is still an issue. It's truly hard to fathom. If you think economic sentiment is bad now, another price surge would make it historically awful. So, in some, the lack of expert and lawmaker support for this proposal probably makes sense. Trump's numbers don't add up. The policy would be economically devastating. It borders on the legal and it's a carbon copy of promises he has already failed to deliver. That's plenty of reason not to support it and plenty of reason to have healthy skepticism that ever happened, even if Republicans keep the house and sent it. All right, that is it for my take. I'm going to send over to Arie

25:38Weitzman who is going to answer today's reader listener question. We'll be right back after this quick break. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. But what policy changes should investors be watching? Washington-wise is an original podcast from Charles Schwab that unpacks the stories making news in Washington right now and how they may affect your finances and portfolio. Listen at Schwab.com slash Washington-wise. Customers shouldn't have to start from scratch every time they meet help. That's why we built them. Fin answers questions helps buyers find what they need and remembers the context from one conversation to the next. Learn more at fin.ai

26:44This is Tangles Managing Editor. Arie Weitzman answering a reader question today from Christian in Palatine, Illinois. Christian asks, why is Podis letting logging companies cut down protected forests in the USA? So let's describe what's actually happening here because that is mostly right, but it also leaves a lot of detail out. So in August, the truck administration filed a proposal to rescind the 2001 roadless area conservation room, which prevents roads from being built in designated areas of national forests. The proposal garnered a lot of criticism in consternation. The New York Times, for example, described it like this in their headline, Trump administration moves to allow logging in pristine national forests. On the other hand, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, whose department oversees the forest service, defended the rule as a wait-to-revent wildfires saying, for too long, outdated restrictions have kept tens of millions of forested acres off-limits to the very treatments that improve forest health and reduce wildfire risk

27:46to our communities. In a nutshell, the administration believes that allowing national forests to build forest roads in protected areas will make it easier to respond to wildfires when they occur. The Trump administration also says that rescinding this rule will allow the managers of individual forests to make the best decisions for themselves. That means Alaska's remote thongous forest, which is at a very low risk of wildfires, may not decide to build new roads, but Montana's Kutene National Forest, which is also a target for increased logging, probably will. Meanwhile, any national forest in Idaho or Colorado will not be subject to this rule because those states have already set restrictions on new road developments in these areas. Of course, thinning forests for wildfire prevention goes hand-in-hand with logging. Consider Kutene in Montana. A judge throughout an attempted logging project there in 2025 partially because of this roadless rule, signing with environmentalists seeking to protect grizzly bear habitats. Recending that rule will allow projects like that to move

28:48forward and at a time when we're in a trade war with the country, we get 84% of our softwood lumber imports from. Those projects could increase rapidly. That would mean negative environmental effects like habitat destruction, pollution of drinking water, and even manningly increased wildfires. So on the idea of rescinding this roadless rule, ultimately, the devil's going to be in the details. Developing wide paved roads through pristine forests would be harmful to those areas, even to the beetle-infested stands of deadwood that are often invoked in these discussions. However, fire-prone forests would undeniably benefit from smaller access roads that provide fuel breaks and access points for firefighters. I live directly next to a Vermont state forest, and I personally send on the board of an LLC that manages 140 acres of rural and area. That's pretty small compared to these national forests, but for us, we're actually required by the state to cut down a certain amount of trees each year. And forest roads, which are unpaved uneven paths

29:51that are often called fire roads, help us do that. So yes, there's plenty of reason to believe this roadless rule is being promoted to the benefit of the logging industry and to the detriment of national forests. But if the rule does end up putting decision-making power in the hands of those managing these forests, there's also plenty of reason to retain some garden optimism about its effects. That's it for today's Reader Question, so we can send it back over to Audrey for the rest of the pod. Thanks, Ari. Finally, we have today's Have a Nice Day Story. In 2016, Sonia Pasey founded Freeform on the belief that she could fight domestic abuse by giving women and abusive relationships more economic agency. Pasey put this theory to the test. She started by helping survivors launch small businesses, then began handing out direct checks of up to $1,500 during the pandemic. Ten years and 10 million dollars later, Freeform's new impact report shows Pasey's idea is working. Among the survivors it surveyed 94% reported stronger social well-being and

30:53those in financial crisis fell from roughly half to 10%. One survivor said, quote, I have learned to have my own agency with money. For the first time in my life, I feel safe and trust myself with financial choices. Good, good, good has the story and you can find the link in the show notes. That's it for today's podcast. If you would like to support our work, head over to Retangle.com, where you can get a newsletter subscription, a podcast subscription, or a bundle membership that gets you a discount on both. We will be right back here tomorrow, but in the meantime, this has been Editor Audrey Borhead. On behalf of Isaac and everyone else, have a great day and peace. Our Executive Editor and Founder is me. Isaac Saul and our Executive Producer is John Woll. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by managing editor, Ari Weissman with Senior Editor, Will Koeback and Associate Editor's Harding More Head and Belly Saul. Music for the podcast was produced by diet 75. To run more about Tango and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at Retangle.com.

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