Today's Poll Question: Who Wins The House In November?

0:00You ready to vote on today's Daily Poll Question at SmirkConnish.com. But first, Michael explains it for you right here. Welcome to the SmirkConnish podcast from SiriusXM for independent minds. Hello, hello. Today is Wednesday. It's the 9th of September, 2026. Yesterday we had a healthy vote at smirkConnish.com. And the Daily Poll Question 33,796 cast ballots. On the question of, would America be better off as two countries? 87.3% said, no, 12.7% said, yes. Yesterday I shared with you that in recent scientific polling, the yes number was close to 18%. So far fewer of our voters wish to see the country have an amicable divorce. Why was I asking that question? Well, I told the story yesterday of how next Tuesday I'm launching on YouTube a new program. It's called can we agree?

1:00Can we agree is two distinguished guests debating one issue for roughly an hour, uninterrupted yours truly moderating every conversation. They are recorded live in person in my studios. So everybody is kneecap to kneecap. And thus far we've attracted extraordinary participants, extraordinary, especially when I've not had any tape to show anybody. I've only had a concept. So the first that we recorded was John U from Berkeley and William Galston from Brookings in the Wall Street Journal arguing whether Trump has changed the American presidency or simply revealed executive power that his predecessors never exercised. And the second episode was artificial intelligence and features Richard Clark, the nation's first cyber czar in Jennifer Huddleston from Kato on whether and how to regulate AI. And then Senator Joe Manchin came in and squared off against Jamal Simmons,

2:03the former communications director for vice president Harris. Most recently just last week, Congressman Tom Swasey of New York debating former Ohio State Senator Nina Turner on whether and where democratic socialism fits in the future of the Democratic Party. What I'm about to record, and this gets me back to yesterday's poll question, was whether America needs an amicable divorce. And I got headed down this road because I read Kurt Anderson's brand new novel called the breakup. He's got the United States in 2044, 2045, having gone through a period of what he describes as as disunion. He doesn't call it secession because in his thinking, in his fictitious thinking, we've had an amicable divorce. And he paints a very detailed picture of what it looks like. And it's not just, you know, whack up the country by the Mason Dixon line.

3:04And it's not do it by state. And it's not do it by county. No, it goes all the way down to a metro level. So you know, you've got a red swath across the country with blue dots in all different locations. You know, Austin, Texas is no longer part of the United States. Part of me is part of the United States. What has broken off is the remainder of Texas into something called the free America Republic, free American Republic. It's a really provocative read. So after I read that book, I thought, hmm, who has thought out whether this is all practical? And that led me to Ryan Griffiths from Syracuse, who's written a couple of books on the subject, most recently, the dis-United States. And Professor Griffiths makes the argument that it would be bloody and it would be a mess and it wouldn't work. And we're better off getting along, reducing polarization and sticking together. So the two of them are coming into my studio at the end of the week to have that conversation.

4:08And that's what led me to think would America be better off as two countries, hence yesterday's vote. The midterm elections, I was going to say the election is eight weeks from yesterday, but people are in like North Carolina. They already got their ballots. Instead, I'll say it wraps up eight weeks from yesterday and that's the focus of today's poll question. This is for Connish podcast from Syria. Success. Let me thank my friends at Parks, Casino, College football is here already really exciting. Really that whole Western Michigan, Michigan, unbelievable. You can make a futures bet right now on who's going to win it all in College football. All the conferences are back. The futures bets. Well, number four ranked Notre Dame is the fave, a $25 bet on Notre Dame to win it all, pays $150. $25 wage you're on number one ranked Ohio state pays $150. Now look at Penn State. Their ranked number 18 bet 25 on them. And if it hits, it's $1,875.

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6:16The Daily Poll Question at SpurConnish.com The non-scientific social political question designed to spark broader discussions about current issues. Get ready to cast your ballot. And leave a rating and review of this podcast on your favorite podcast app. Whole question today on this Wednesday at SpurConnish.com, a subject that I'll raise with Mark Halpern in the third hour of today's radio program, the myth terms and how are they going to turn out? Labor days behind us. Which by tradition means the fall campaign has begun. Democrats are marking the occasion with something new and that is a midterm convention opening today and playing itself out tonight and tomorrow up against the NFL, by the way, whose planning was that? In Dallas, President Trump is the headliner, you know, saying he's going to make the midterm all about himself. Where do things stand? Republicans hold the house to 18 to 212 with one independent and four vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of about four seats once those vacancies are filled.

7:16The Senate's 53, 47 Democrats need four there as well. Three gets some 50, 50. You've still got JD Vance breaking the ties. And history says that the president's party pays the price in the midterms. Since World War II, the average loss is 26 house seats. The president who stood at 40% approval or below on election day think Bush in 2006, Trump in 2018, Biden in 2022, lost the house. And Trump's approval today is at 36, 36. So the current numbers, the current polling, the betting markets, they, they suggest the same is about to unfold. Democrats lead the generic ballot by about six and a half points. In 42 contested special elections this year, they've run a median. You remember that the difference between mean median 10 points ahead of Trump's 2024

8:17margins. Polymarket puts their odds of taking the house Democrats at 87%. So you know, Republicans, what do they have going for them? They've got fresh maps. Since 2024, Texas and Florida and Ohio and others have redrawn their districts. The thinking is that the redrawing of the districts gives Republicans a cushion of about nine seats. Is that going to be enough? Now you can toss in what's going on with mail in ballots, a subject I'll get into with Senator Chris Coons on today's program. And that's where Republicans hope they're going to make up the margin. Again, 435 seats, 218 are needed to run the place right now where Republicans have 218. So Democrats have got to pick up between four and six, depending on what goes on in the vacancies. I have in front of me a chart just going back the last 25 or so years.

9:17So there are two exceptions. There are two exceptions to the rule that the president's party pays the price. They are 1998 and 2002. How do you explain it? Well, Clinton was at 66% approval rating. Are we ever going to see that again? Those kind of numbers. And Bush was at 63% that was post 9.11. And in those elections, their parties won. But in every other election, the president's party has lost. You remember President Obama using the word shellac? We got shellac. That was a shellacking. That was in 2010. So Obama gets elected in 2008. In 2010, his approval rating is at 45%. His party lost 63 seats. How about this? Trump 2018. Having been elected in 2016, his approval was at 40%.

10:19And the Republican party lost 41. So I'm asking today, I framed it the following. This is your connish podcast from Syria's Exam. Gang, I am ditching the script for Quince because there's something I want to tell you that isn't in the script and it's this. I used to spend a lot of money on sweaters. I didn't have a lot of sweaters, but I spent a lot of money on sweaters. And I have a moth problem. I've had a moth problem. Why did I spend so much on sweaters? Because I am spending, TC, I'm spending like 60 bucks at Quince. They're fabulous. They are so fabulous. They wear well. I don't know how they do it. The cashmere, they're Mongolian cashmere. The Mongolian cashmere and my personal favorite are the t-shirts. They are under $50. My hand to God, I have seven of them. Okay, well, I bought a bunch of sweaters. Seven different colors. I bought one and I was like, oh, this is now my staple. And even in this time of year at night, I wear a short sleeve cashmere sweater.

11:21And they are so comfortable. I can buy four Quince sweaters. Correct. For one of the old moth eaten ones. And I'm wearing Quince jeans, right? This very second. Nice. Yeah. Nice. There you go. Find your next fall favorites at Quince. Download the Quince app for an app exclusive offer. Go to quince.com slash smirk. Honest, get free shipping on your order. 365 day returns now available in Canada and the UK too. Q-U-I-N-C-E.com slash smirk. Honest. The Daily Poll Question at smirk.com. The non-scientific social political question. Design to spark broader discussions about current issues. Get ready to cast your ballot. And leave a rating and review of this podcast on your favorite podcast app. So I'm asking today, I framed it the following. Who wins the House in November? Democrats comfortably, which I define as 230 or more seats. Democrats narrowly, Republicans narrowly, or Republicans comfortably.

12:24Go vote at smirk.com. I am in the category. This is not me rooting for anything. But I think that the Democrats have a very strong hand. I would say Democrats comfortably. But I'm really worried about this mail-in ballot issue. It's just, to me, I think that the federal government, and I'm not even thinking of the postal service, is totally ill-equipped to carry out what they're seeking to do. And by that, I mean, we don't have a national list of citizens. So all the attention that I'm seeing in the media is on the mail service and the barcode and can the mail service have the barcode? And are they going to reject? It's not that. I'm concerned, well, it is that. But I'm more worried about what happens when now it's time to do some type of a comparison to a list that doesn't exist. I'll get into that with Chris Coons today on the program. All right. Do me a favor. Go over to YouTube. Subscribe, please.

13:24It costs you nothing. To my YouTube channel, you'll be in good position to start receiving episodes of Can We Agree when we launch next Tuesday. See ya. Michael Smirconish for Independent Mind. Listen weekdays on SiriusXM's POTUS, Channel 124, and anytime on the SiriusXM app. Stop and look at your walls. Does anything there actually inspire you? Original art has the power to transform not only how a space looks, but how it feels. And that's why SachiArt is on a mission to make living with original art accessible to everyone. Join buyers from around the world who have experienced the joy of living with art. Visit sachiart.com today and get 10% off original art with code podcast 10. That's 10% off at sachiart.com. That's S-A-A-T-C-H-I-Art.com. Real talent is defined by what people can do, not where they learn to do it. So by stopping at the education section of a resume, you might throw away the perfect chire. Skills first hiring helps you see talent others miss.

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