Thursday's Tournament Bets Part II: Who is on Upset Alert?

0:00What's going on? I'm Archmaning, Viori athlete and college quarterback. Whether I'm running, training, traveling, or just unwinding at home, I love doing it in my core shorts from Viori. With a breathable box or brief liner, a quick to dry, super versatile, and stand-up to even my most intense training sessions. Plus, they come in three inseims and a ton of colors. Ready to try pair? Go to Viori.com, slash arch, and get 20% off at checkout. I think you're going to love them as much as I do. That's v-u-r-i.com slash arch, and get 20% off your first order. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions. Not only will you receive 20% off your first purchase, but enjoy free shipping on any U.S. orders over $75 and free returns. Have a great day. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. What if comparing car insurance rates was as easy as putting on your favorite podcast? With Progressive, it is. Just visit the Progressive website to quote with all the coverages you want. You'll see Progressive's direct rate, then their tool will provide options from other companies so you can compare. All you need to do

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3:23And you can listen to the program on the Westwood One Sports app, the Odyssey app, SiriusXM Channel 375, and hundreds of local affiliates throughout North America. Phone number to join the show is 310-840-4910. That's 310-840-4910. The Cavendor twins are facing off in the Court of Legends game and you can enter our pick a Twin to Win free to play game for a chance to win a share of two million dollars in bonus bets. How to get this offer in three easy steps. Number one, opt in to the pick a Twin to Win free to play game. Number two, select which Cavendor twin, Haley or Hannah, you then will win the Court of Legends one-on-one basketball game hosted at the bank at Bellagio in Las Vegas, Nevada. And number three, if the Twin you win, or if the Twin you select wins the game, you'll want to share of two million dollars in bonus bets. Before we get back to Thursday's games here and before we get an update on UMBC and Howard, Brad, we've got our bracket challenge.

4:26Our group, everybody's filling out their brackets here. Millions of brackets have already been filled out. We still have like 36 hours until or 40 hours until the madness begins on Thursday afternoon. But join our group, Brad, myself, our producer Brandon Combs, our video producer Monty. We'll all be posting the link to join our group. It's free to play. It's through ESPN, just fill out your bracket. Join the BEDMGM tonight. BEDMGM tonight show group. And you can decide, you can see, you can test who has the most ball knowledge. We did this for the NFL playoffs. It was a ton of fun. It was awesome. We're doing it again here for March madness. We want to get the biggest group as possible. So fill out your bracket. Join our group. Check out our socials, Brad at Noisee Wevos. I'm a Pat Boyle 44. We're going to be posting the link every day. So you'll should be easy to find. And we cannot wait to have as many of you with us along for the ride as possible once the madness officially kicks off on Thursday afternoon. All right, Brad. Let's

5:27get an update here. Early doors of the second half, UMBC and Howard high scoring affair in the first four in between a couple of 16 seeds. What's the latest in this game? Yeah, Howard extended lead right now. They're up 13, outscoring UMBC 12 to seven. So far early on the second half, 16, 21 to go in the game. Overall, the game, both teams just shoot lines out UMBC, 47% for the floor, Howard at 50%. And both are even Steven in terms of three pointers made, six of peace. As you mentioned, the difference in this game is that Howard is drawn a lot of whistles and making UMBC pay at the charity strike 15 to 18 on freebies, retrievers of left to five points on their free throw attempts, a six of 11. And again, I've been killing him on the glass, have now a plus 10 advantage in rebounding due the Howard bison. So Howard right now in command in control. And I'm sweating out whether UMBC got some outline action here, can tighten this thing up,

6:32have them plus eight and a half on the same game parlay. So wake up, retrievers are near not such as boys. Damn, I remember I used to get snossages from my dog. She loved, she loved love the snossages. All right, let's skip. Yeah, like we're talking all the Thursday games. So you know, you could do it by by region, of course, but we figure the easiest thing is, well, you know, Thursday's games are up first. That's the ones you're going to dive your head and your feet and your hands and your whole body you do. And then we're going to break down all of Friday's games, all 16 of them tomorrow show. So continuing to work through Thursday's games, let's go out to the West region, the Moda Center in Portland. This is a 150 PM Eastern tip, Brad. That means this is a 1050 AM local time here in Portland on Thursday. It's the 12 seeded high point versus the fifth seed of Wisconsin Badgers and Wisconsin. They've hovered between a nine and a half

7:35and a 10 and a half point favorite in this one. You and I have talked up the Badgers in a big, big way here over the last couple of weeks. We love their dynamic guard play of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, arguably the best guard duo in the country, but high point runs a high tempo game as well, very, very underrated. Our high point should they be on lookout here, a team that you and I are both very high on should we be worried about high point a team that has what 30 wins under their belt. I would pick Wisconsin here. I think they win this game, but you know, again, you always got to watch out for those Cinderella sleepers could high point be one of them. No, I don't think they're going to be. Look, if high point had been matched with anybody else and a 512 scenario, I made have taken a high point as a result, but Wisconsin really plays into their weaknesses. Let me give it the statistical scout on this. You look at Torvik over

8:37the last of, let's see, dozen games reach to these teams. The Badgers are number eight in the country and overall efficiency. High point is number 77. I mean, that really kind of says it all right there. It's almost a mind drop moment. And if you look at high point, they're really reliant on the turnovers that they create. They chaos that they generate. They're getting an opponent turnover on 22% of possessions, but you got boy, you got Blackwell. The Badgers don't turn the rock over. They're very cautious with the orange. They run seamless offensive sets they really execute. They always make the extra pass. A lot of dribble drive action, a lot of kick out action, and then knock down trace. Over 55% of Wisconsin shots are last as in games have come from distance where they're also shooting 38.5%. As absurd, absurd. As good as high point is defensively, they have met their match. They have not seen the team remotely the caliber of Wisconsin.

9:41The Badgers fire in all cylinders. I know high points going to be a trendy selection for a lot of people with the 12.5 designation, but I think they're going to get it worked in this game. Badgers by 15. I was very high on high point last year because they nearly had 30 wins last season as well. They were 13 seed and they played Purdue and Purdue ended up winning that game by 12 in a game that they led by 10 at half. I'm hoping that I'm on the right side of history this time. I like Wisconsin. You and I like the Badgers. If not in Arizona's region, I probably would have had them in the final four, but I got Arizona win in the whole damn thing. You and I both like Wisconsin, but you should see plenty of points in this one. High point average is 90 points per game on the season, but as you mentioned, they really haven't played anybody. Haven't played a top 100 team this year. They did dominate the big South, though. So we shall see. Let's get to one that's got it's a real wild card matchup for me, Brad. In the East region, the 11 seeded South Florida bulls,

10:42the champions of the American going up against the 6C Louisville Cardinals out of the ACC. This one in Buffalo, 130 PM Eastern tip off on Thursday and Louisville, just a four and a half point favorite. They opened as seven and a half point favorites, but the big injury news, their second best player, or their best player, depending on how you look at it, Mike Cal Brown who averages over 18 points for game is not going to play. And Louisville, he's done a decent job without them. You know, they won their final two games of the regular season, including a win against Miami. And then they nearly beat Miami again in the ACC tournament, but South Florida, they're on a heater right now and they pretty, they're pretty comfortably dominated. They're quick little two game American championship conference tournament. So are the bulls a live dog here if Mike, without Mike, Cal Brown playing for Louisville? I got to think that they are. Oh, they're very much a live dog and whoop, whoop, whoop, whoop. They were all earned their sausages. I got them straight up and not only they got bracket

11:43with the analytical bracket as well. I like the South Florida team quite a bit. Again, he looked at the advanced data. They were top 40 team over the last 11 games. So it was Louisville. But the key in this game is very simply this. Louisville doesn't play a whole lot of defense outside of the top one. Somebody in effect, a few goal percentage defense out Florida. However, inside the top 35 nationally in that category, they pressure the ball. No, Mike, Cal Brown. That could be problematic for Conwell and, you know, some of the backup guards in this game. South Florida is generating a turnover on 20% of opponent possessions in their last 11 games. They really punish you on the offensive glass as well, getting that second chance on 38.8% of their possessions. It's a flimsy front court. You know, Frues will like to have to box out for Louisville. They're going to compete in this game. I like the bullsman. This is one of my favorite 11 over six matchups in the entire NCAA tournament field. I think South Florida is marching on and Louisville's going home.

12:45Not having Brown on the floor is devastating. It really is. Yeah, and I think that's going to be the difference in this one. Louisville is going to need that secondary or tertiary scoring and they're not going to be able to find it. All right, let's move on to the West region here. And another one that maybe could have some upset sleeper potential to it. The Hawaii rainbow warriors taken on the four seeded Arkansas razorbacks, the SEC champions. This one also in Portland. So that's favorable about his favorable travel as Hawaii could get, right? I mean, it's not like you got the Hawaiian time zone going away to the East Coast. They go to the West Coast. They'll take on Arkansas. The razorbacks are 15 and a half point favorites in this one. And again, coming off the SEC title run, they've got some mojo. They've got some momentum. Hawaii 24 and eight on the season bread, but you know, also didn't play that strong of a schedule. And I'm looking through their schedule. Here's some of the toughest teams they've played. Oregon, they game a good run lost by one, but that was a team in the bottom of the bottom of the big 10

13:48Arizona state. Again, one of the worst teams in the big 12 lost to them by seven. They really didn't have too many strong non-conference wins. I guess it's always tough to do when you got to get convinced people to come out to the island, right? When you got to have people come out to Hawaii. But I just, I don't know if I want to lay the points with Arkansas. It's a lot. It's 15, especially for a four seed, but you know, again, I can't, I can't really convince myself that how I he's going to keep this one close or let alone damn near pull up an upset. Well, it's my understanding why did not go home after the big West conference tournament. So they've been in the continental 48 for the last few days. So they're time adjusted. I'm not worried about the travel at all. I think Hawaii has a one area where they have the upper hand. And that's, you know, the commanding the glass. I think Johnson, there's seven footer is a supreme interior player. Well, the best rebounders out West, no matter what level of play, whatever conference it is. You look at Hawaii as a collective. They're top 10 and defensive rebounding

14:51percentage in their last 11 games. And that's an area where Arkansas is not exactly as stooped as they're in the interior. Now Arkansas has got the car play. You mentioned areas A cup. That guy's a ball under shot collar. He's going to be a top 10 NBA pick. It could be a multi-time all star at the peak of his NBA career. He's that good. I can knock down three. So he gets down hill. He gets a line off. Then he makes you pay on those charity star opportunities. And that Arkansas team can absolutely make it rain. They're shooting 42.1% from distance over the last dozen games. That's a lot of points. I kind of like Hawaii plus the points. But I think Arkansas will win comfortably. But will they cover? I don't know. I'm not going to touch that one. Yeah. Yeah. I kind of feel the same way. You mentioned Hawaii. They do have some length. And they also they hold teams to a very low percentage of assist rates. So they force a lot of teams to beat you one on one. We know A cup can do it. Can the other scorers on Arkansas do it if Hawaii's

15:55getting into a lot of one on one matchups with a lot of size and length that they boast. That'll be left to be seen. All right. One that I've got already penciled in for the big upset here. Number four seed Nebraska. Taken on the Troy Trojans in the South region, Brad. I'll let you go first here because I don't think you're as nearly as confident in the Troy Trojans as I am. This one 1240 p.m. Eastern on Thursday at the Pay Com Center in Oklahoma City. So not too much travel for both of these Southern based teams. I know Nebraska in the Midwest. But you know, again, not going to go into Oklahoma City, not too far travel from Lincoln. Same thing for the Troy Trojans. And you know, you got Troy, the champions of the Sunbelt Conference, which they finished on top of in the regular season as well. And offense at average is 80 points from game going up against Nebraska. Remember, they started 20 and oh six and six in their last 12 games. It's a team that's kind of sputtering. But Brad, I think Troy wins this game. I'll let you go first before I get my reasoning. Yeah, look, I think they are light dogs in this game.

17:00And in fact, I think Troy's got to cover Nebraska again, folks has never won an NC tournament game in school history. So they have that on the line. You know, I thought was going to be a foregone conclusion earlier this year. But they have fallen on hard times as you mentioned that 500 record there down the stretch. They're connected group. Very well coached by Fred Hoiberg. Ranked mass is going to be absolutely critical in this game because Nebraska is not a very good rebound team. And that's just during the Troy is generating those second chance opportunities. Again, that offense of rebound on 38% of their possessions. You know, Nebraska is a very good defensive team overall. They're top 10 at just an offensive efficiency over their last 11 games. They haven't shot the ball all that well, though of decent 34.9% from distance. Again, I the Huskers are going to win this thing, but it's going to be by the skin of their teeth. I think they're going to get quite the scare from the Trojans. And I know you're going to have some puns in certain areas

18:04in regards to this team. But give me Nebraska barely. I'll take Troy, though, to score the cover. Yeah, I like Troy. I mean, it's again, it's a team that shoots nearly half their shots from beyond the perimeter. And that's kind of the game is going more and more in that direction. We've seen in the NBA and trying to trickles down a college basketball because players want to go to programs. They think they can prepare for the NBA, whether they have a realistic shot of playing there or not. Troy is a team that has seen the game sped up and it's seen a game that relies on the analytics and more three point shooting. They take 50 nearly 50% of their shots from deep. They have struggled to shoot it. I mean, they only shoot it at 33%. So I just look, I mean, if there is one team, though, that you can rely on some variance that has good guard play. And I talked about him the Victor Valdez six foot seven, going up against the smaller Nebraska guards. I think he can really force them into some issues. And then there are three point shooters. The Campbell Bros Cooper and Kobe Campbell, if they can knock down some trays, I think Troy, the tray Trojan Trojans, Troy Trojans

19:07knocking down the trays. There's a iteration in there. There's sexual innuendo. Whenever you want to talk about it, I think the Troj Trojans are going to be wearing that glass slipper. I think they are moving on. I look, I know Nebraska corn huskers fans, they'd be dying for that first ever tournament win. And you thought at 20 and 0, it was common, but Brad, you mentioned this offense has gone down the drain 112 and offensive efficiency according to Bart Torvik in their last 13 games. I do not trust this team to be able to score. So you got to hope Fred Hoyberg's guys can really dig in, dig their claws in defensively. All right, let's sit on a couple of other ones here. Let's get to two. We got three more to go through on the Thursday slate and a couple of these are big favorites. So you know, got number three seed Gonzaga going up against 14 seated Kennesaw State, the owls, the owls of Kennesaw State. I think Gonzaga is going to get tested. I just don't know if it's here, Brad. I don't know if stylistically, this is a good matchup here for Kennesaw State. This one also in Portland. So Gonzaga going from from Spokane, Washington,

20:10to Portland, Oregon, Bailey, and he got to travel. They're 20 and a half point favorites. Again, that's a big number to lay. I don't know if I'm comfortable with that, but in terms of who I got going on in the bracket, this is an easy one for me. I don't see the upset happening here. I like Gonzaga. I do too. I will say this to Hootie Hoos, they're going to try to really speed up Gonzaga. That's the name of their game. They're top 40 to adjust the tempo of the Zags outside the top 200 in that category, but they're going to need like an entire briefcase full of horse tranquilizers to neutralize Graham EK. Good luck. Godspeed. He's going for like 30 and 15 in this one. Yeah. Yeah. I think so. And again, Kennesaw State, they were middle of the pack in conference USA. They were the sixth best team or seventh best team, depending on the tiebreakers in that conference. Liberty didn't take care of business. Sam, he used to couldn't take care of business. None of Louisiana Tech or Western Kentucky could get it done. So it was Kennesaw

21:10State who knocked off Louisiana Tech in that conference championship game. They won three games in three days. That's why they're here. You know, you had some teams that won 22 Liberty, won 26 games, but it's the owls that are dancing here. Yeah. Graham EK, good luck stopping him, ladies and gentlemen. All right. Another massive favorite. The Houston Cougars going up against Idaho in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. This is the last scheduled game for Thursday night. Houston 23 and a half point favorites. I mean, again, have the vandals. They're going to be vandalized. Brad, have they seen a defense like this all season long? I don't think so. They did a great job coming out of the big sky conference. Again, a team that was in the middle of the pack in that conference. They were only nine and nine in conference play. I think they're going to get absolutely destroyed. If there's one big C that I think rolls by 30, 40 points in the first round, I think the talent discrepancy here in this game is off the charts. I don't think Idaho belongs on the same

22:12floor as Houston. No offense to the to the potato state. I think they're in for a rude awakening on Thursday night. Yeah, potatoes are going to get scanned in this one. There's no question about it. Slide them a butter, some bacon chips, some chives, and dig in at Cougars. I totally agree. The one team agrees that Idaho has a pretty good defensive rebounding team so they may be able to neutralize, mitigate some of those second chances that Houston often thrives off of. But they are a team that would prefer to play a more brist tempo. Houston's not going to allow that. They grind you out and they bop in the mouth. So I'm with you. Houston by 30 plus. All right, very good. And then finally, really quickly here in Buffalo, 405 PM Eastern on Thursday, three city Michigan State Spartans in the big 10 versus the champions of the summit league, North Dakota state. They've been at the top of the conference. They were the favorite. They took care of business. This North Dakota state team, they can shoot it. Man, 81 points for game as an

23:13offense. They shoot 47% very undersized though. They don't grab a lot of rebounds. And that is where I think they are going to be in big trouble against Michigan State. Again, it's a big number. Sparty favored by 16 and a half points. I don't know if I'd be picking them to cover, but I'm absolutely without a shadow of a doubt picking the Spartans to get through to the next round in my bracket. Yeah, they're going to survive this one, but they're not going to cover. In order to go to say it has some decent size or excellent defensive glass on Michigan State is one of the best rebounding teams in the entire field. But here's the issue with the Spartans. They're outside the top to 80 folks and affect the field goal percentage defense in the last 10 games. In order to go to state, you magic and stroke it. They're shooting 37% from distance in their last 10 games. So fear the bison from North Dakota state. A, look, I think they're going to do it for the northern great plain states and at least stay competitive. So again, Michigan State wins. In order to go to stay covers. And really,

24:15that's all that matters. All right, very good. So you, you think North Dakota state can cover? I think they get shoved into a locker in this one. Oh, we'll take a short break. 310 840 4910. If you want to join in any and all of your predictions first round, do you have any big upsets? I think Detroit Trojans are going to be the big upset in the first round. When we come back, we'll do a little fill in the blank. When it comes to the East region, we're continuing to break down March mandates. We'll get you an update on Howard and UMBC. We'll get you an update on Team USA and the World Baseball Classic. Don't go anywhere. We're coming right back. He's Brad Evans. I'm Pat Boyle. This is bad MGM tonight on Westwood One Sports. Ah, the most beautiful time of years upon us. Tax season. And tax layers here to help you file. We guarantee 100% accuracy and your maximum refund. Those are some good numbers. And you can trust me

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28:29Every day there's a new headline, a new highlight, a new moment you've got to see for yourself. That's why I stay locked in with the Bleacher Report app. For me, it's about staying connected to my sports. I can follow the teams I care about, get real-time scores, breaking news, and highlights all in one place. Download the Bleacher Report app today so you never miss a moment. Presented by T-Mobile, the official wireless partner of Odyssey Sports. With an awesome network and great savings, there's never been a better time to join T-Mobile. Visit your neighborhood store to make the switch today. If you or someone you know needs help, you're not alone. When things feel overwhelming, support is closer than you think. The ERPO Liaison program connects individuals and families to trusted behavioral health providers and vital support services in the community. Compassion, guidance, resources, all in one place. Don't wait to get the help you deserve. Reach out today at ERPO Liaison Referrals at