The week in markets - Q1 earnings beating expectations

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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In this episode of The week in markets, the market seems to be breathing a sigh of relief about the takeover of First Republic Bank. Unlike with Silicon Valley Bank, when treasury yields collapsed, since JP Morgan purchased First Republic, treasury yields have risen. It will listen closely for hints the Fed is coming to the end of its rate hike cycle, when the Fed meets this Wednesday. Even if there is one more 25 basis point hike, it’s tiny compared to the move from 0.25% to 5%, since March last year. As we enter the so-called “sell in May and go away” time of year, it’s worth noting that in previous years when returns from January through April were positive, the S&P was up three quarters of the time from May through October, and the average return was 4%. This week another 162 companies report their earnings. If the trend of companies beating analyst forecasts continues, the year/year earnings decline to continue to shrink. So that by the time all of them have reported, the earnings growth could be zero, from an estimated -6.7% going into the results season, and -3.7% today.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head Research Asia at Julius Baer.