The Week in Markets - Navigating Stock Trends Post Powell's Speech

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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After Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, the futures market’s odds for a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting rose from 18% to 21%, and from 35% to 42% at the November meeting. Yet the Wall Street Journal’s interpretation was largely dovish, noting the phrase “proceed carefully” was used twice. JP Morgan Chase’s card tracker is indicating that August retail sales will likely be down month on month, which would be welcome after July’s big increase. August is on average not a stellar month for the S&P 500 index, nor is September or even October. It’s only in November on average that stocks get lift off into the year end.