The UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to Stocks

0:00So if you have been struggling in the market lately, trust me, you're not alone. The market has been very frustrating for a lot of people going sideways and now starting to trend down. And here's the thing, as professional investors, which I want you to start considering yourself a professional investor, a professional fund manager, somebody who knows what they're doing. You're no longer an amateur. If you're putting money in the market, you need to treat this like it's a profession. So first thing I want you to talk to you about is looking at the trend of the market, right? We've got the 10 under the 20 price under the 50. So the market is telling you right now with absolute certainty, the direction is down. Does that mean it's going to go to zero? No. But it does mean that right now the trend is moving down. I can't tell you the duration, nor I can't tell you the magnitude, but I can tell you the direction. And sometimes the direction bends and it's super frustrating. Now prices today are at the same level that they were in October. So we're talking like legitimately six months of nothing, six months of nothing except volatility

1:03in the market. And that's different from the previous six months where it was super easy, right? Where it was super easy. Now you as a professional investor have to understand when to be aggressive and when to be defensive, when to get in and when to get out. Outlier helps you with that. Of course, quick pitch, right? Knowing right here when to get long versus when to just stay out of the way. Now I like to say sit and cash and don't f up, right? Sit and cash and don't f up. I want you to take that. I want you to embody that. Now why? Why? Right? Because Mark Rennerveni, one of my mentors, my personal friend, who've seen on the channel a few times, he's won the US investing championship twice. And he says, wait and cash for proper setups. How long? As long as it takes. As long as it takes. Now why do we wait and cash? Well, I had waited in actual cash with like zero earnings for years until last May. So nearly almost a full calendar year at this point. I learned about SGOV. So basically at this point, I don't sit in cash. I sit in

2:06ultra short term treasury bonds and those ultra short term treasury bonds go up on a daily basis. And then at the end of the month, they crash back down and it's a repeatable pattern. You can watch it happen over and over and over every single month. And it's equivalent to getting paid a daily dividend, a daily amount of interest in your account every single day. And then when you need that cash to go invest in something, guess what? Not only did you not lose on stocks like Microsoft, right? This has been a very frustrating stock for a lot of people on Netflix. This has been a very frustrating stock for a lot of people, which has now started to turn around. This is what you're looking for. Like Palantir, this was a super frustrating stock for a lot of people, right? Instead of trying to be in all these stocks that sound like the most exciting thing out there, that Wall Street bets is talking about, et cetera, all this whatnot. And so far. Oh, of course, so far, right? Instead of trying to pick a stock when the market is struggling, you can just sit

3:08in bonds, sit in bonds and don't f up, right? The James bonds, sit in bonds and don't f up. And then when it's time to get aggressive in the market, when I assume you have a trading plan, my trading plan is linked down below. No, no, no paywall, no nothing. You click it. You got it. It's just that simple. And I'm competing in the US investing championship this year. So I hope that that's helpful. It's not only do you have your entire account, but you actually have a little bit more from the earnings that you're making in those bonds. So I get it. It's not sexy. It's not exciting. If you want sexy and exciting, there are all kinds of charlatans, all kinds of scammers, all kinds of fake gurus who will take your money without you even seeing how many tens of thousands of dollars they will siphon from you. Or you can listen to a professional investor, you can subscribe, you can like and hype, and you can actually learn what it takes to be successful

4:11in the markets. And a lot of times, like my friend Mark would say, wait and cash for proper setups, how long, long it takes, as long as it takes. So today is asking anything Friday. I want to answer as many questions as possible to help you guys as much as I can. So this question here for Mike, what stage does the market appear to be in right now? So stage analysis is a concept from, I believe this concept came from, what's his name? I've got his book right here, Stan Weinstein. Stan Weinstein, where's his book at? Here. Stage analysis, I believe, was created by Stan Weinstein. And so the idea behind it is you're trying to get in when the market and the stock and the sector are all acting right. Because remember, all stocks are bad every once in a while, they act right. This is a great example of what the market cycle looks like. There's stage one, two, three, and four. Stage one is your consolidation.

5:14Two is a big, beautiful uptrend where everybody feels like a genius, the bull market. Three is when the moving averages start crossing over. And four is the big, scary nasty decline that nobody wants to admit. Right. So that looks like this. Stage one, two, three, four. Now this is not theory. This is reality. You want to see reality in practice? It's like a Microsoft. Microsoft. This can't be that bad of a stock, right? It's Microsoft. There we go. This can't be that bad of a stock. It's Microsoft. Stage one, two, three, four. Well, that's not the future of finance. That's just old. That's boomer stuff. What about so-fi? This is the future of finance. Stage one, two, three, four. Well, maybe it's not the future of finance. Maybe, maybe, maybe PayPal is the future of finance. Stage one, two, three, four, one, two, three, four. Okay. Well, but what about Tesla?

6:17Right now, Tesla is the stock that only goes up, right? Stage one, two, three, four. You can see this happening. I am not a pattern guy. Not at all. I couldn't tell you a bull flag pin it from an upside down cheesecake bull flag mess. I don't know, I don't do patterns because I don't care. You don't need to know patterns, but you do need to know what part of the market cycle you're in. And you do that by honestly just looking at the outlier trend template. When the trend is pushing up and the moving averages start to separate, that's a big, strong trend when they come together and then cross over. That's a sign of a trend that's weakening and changing directions. Now, it doesn't always result in a super easy to see defined term like this. By the way, Chris was calling for stage four down trend on sofa. 35% to go. 35% to go. I was saying, you got a big nasty scary down trend. In fact, that's where the cell signal came through and outlier. Before the big scary nasty down trend. So you don't even have to know what stage you're in.

7:22You just have to be aware because all stocks are bad, but every once in a while they act right. There's your cell signal and it went down 35% after that. I feel like knowing which direction the market's going is worth 82 cents a day. That's it. Just 82 cents a day. But to the question from Mike, what stage does the market appear to be in right now? Now, I would tell you that the market acts differently because the market does act differently. Market does act differently. Let's look at this. I want to go back to the COVID crash and let's look through this. Here's the COVID crash right here. You've been pushing up for a long time, big scary crash down and then immediately right back up. That does not fit into the stage analysis right here. But what if we zoom out a little bit? What if we zoom out a little bit? What if we look at like the monthly candles? Let's look at monthly candles instead. Oh, wait a minute. The market only goes up on monthly candles. That's what I'm trying to tell you. Is that the market operates differently because it's designed to then individual stocks. This is a market cap weighted index

8:26of 500 stocks. It looks kind of looks like this. The bigger they are, the bigger pull they have in the market. But also, if a lot of the sectors are doing really well and you've got a couple big guys that are like tanking, it won't, it won't really do anything. It won't really do anything. Okay. Now, I know some of you are watching this and you're like, this guy's a professional investor. He doesn't even know there's 493 stocks in the S&P 500. What an idiot. Oh, trust me. There are plenty of people who claim to make money in the markets all over Reddit all over the internet that have no idea the first GD thing about making money. My compound annual growth rate over the last five years is 44%. And I'm competing in the US investing championship right now. I don't know where I'm going to end up and I don't have to put any sort of target because I got to do is find my plan. I got to do is find my plan because I have a profitable plan. Now, once you have a profitable plan, that is totally freeing. It is super freeing

9:32to be able to say, you know what? Here's my back tested data. All I need is opportunities. All I need is the setups to get to this point. And again, this plan is linked down below. You can have it for free. There is no paywall. Nothing. You click it. You got it. This right here goes into the outlier nine. In fact, I was thinking about changing the gray ones to be green. That way we can kind of like maintain the same green, green, green. In fact, I may, that's not a bad idea. Either putting it on rotating at 90 degrees so that it would match this. I may do that. I may do that. Either way, the point is, is that you've got to have a plan in place. And that plan, you've got to back test and prove that it works. Otherwise, it's just trust me, bros. And if you want trust me, bros, there's all kinds of garbage YouTube channels out there. If you want actual back tested mathematical expectancy, real professional investor type of trades, you're going to replace. Why S. Gov instead of I. C. S. H. Honestly, I didn't even know about I. C. H. I. C. S. H. I

10:39didn't even know about S. Gov until last May. Let's go to I. C. S. H real quick. I. C. S. H. I shares ultra short duration bond. Okay. Sure. Sounds good. Looks like it moves in a similar fashion to S. Gov. Tell me more about this. I. C. S. H. In fact, let's go to chat GPT. Let's have chat GPT explain to us the difference. Explain the difference between S. Gov and I. C. S. H. Which is better. I don't know. Let's find out. Let's find out. This is waste water. Me. I'm checking the current structure. You'll profile and risk characteristics. We'll give it a minute. Let's answer another question. What are your thoughts on the hoots crash window? I don't even know what that means. You question estimate how many percent per day if you put money in S. Gov. Okay. So if S. Gov is paying roughly 4.3 percent as a P. Y. So 4.3 percent A. P. Y. That is annual percentage yield.

11:47So 4.3 percent A. P. Y. You could take on average this divided by 365. That give you not very much obviously, but it's not meant to be. This is over the course of an entire year. Right. So let's save you how to $100,000 account. Times that. You make 11 bucks a day. Now 11 bucks a day. Oh, it's hang on. Therapy Joker. All the redder comments. Oh, that's so stupid. I wouldn't even get out of bed for that. I wouldn't either. Then why are you doing it? You stupid balding glasses wearing moron with ugly teeth. I mean, he's got the pretty ugly teeth. I think. By the way, there was a comment the other day about my teeth. So go go find a bridge and jump off of it. Anyways, looking at this, right? Yeah. But it's better than zero. It's literally $11 more than zero. It's an infinity times more than zero. And guess what I didn't do? I didn't lose one red cent. Not at all. Now, let's go over here. Escav is basically short-term

12:55U.S. Treasury parking lot. Sure. So it does change roughly 4.3% right now. So ICSH is also short-term bond ETF, not just treasuries. It includes other things. It has a little bit more credit risk and more price risk, apparently. It's expense ratio. Or it's yield is around 3.94. Okay, so slightly higher. Which depends more. Let's go. You want closest thing to cash like safety and ETF form, which is exactly what I'm looking for. Pick ICHA if you want to squeeze out a bit more income, but okay, taking modest step up and risk. Okay, so here actually is where I would not pick ICSH. Because my objective is to eliminate market risk. Eliminate to market risk. Although it looks like it works very similar to Escav, but this, in fact,

13:56this is a perfect example as to why Chris rolls over Escav each month. See how ICSH moves down, and then it moves up, and then it moves down. Right. By getting out at the top and back in at the bottom, you eliminate market risk. This operates very significantly similar. Very significantly similar. So there you go. If you want to use ICSH, go for it. I don't have enough information to start putting my money into it yet, but that makes total sense, FOTE. That makes total sense, FOTE. Okay. I have been fortunate. So Justin says, you've been fortunate to be mentored by some amazing markets. It's five market wizards. Larry Height, Mark Minervini, Jason Shapiro, Tom Basso, and what's his name? The writer. Who wrote the books? Jack Shweiger. Yeah, Jack Shweiger. So all five of them I've had the opportunity to work with. Which one do you think has had the most influence to you? So Larry Height specifically taught me about position sizing and trading options and the way that he described trading deep in the

14:59money options, which is the way that I like to trade is like having futures leverage on every stock out there. Right. And I love that. So that is one of my two of my biggest takeaways from him. And some of the psychology of if you have a trade set up, you are obligated to take that trade because you don't know what the outcome will be. And because you don't know what the outcome will be, you've got to always follow your plan. Mark Minervini in so many different ways, has been a huge inspiration to me. And I continue to have conversations with Mark all the time. So definitely Mark. And then Tom Basso, surprisingly so with Tom Basso. But one of the biggest things I learned from him early on. And by the way, you can actually see me working with these guys over on YouTube. Go to YouTube and then go to my channel and go to the playlist page. Wait for it to load. Go to the playlist page on my channel. And you will see me working directly with these these market wizards. You can view the full playlist over here. One thing that Tom Basso said to me that really surprised me was I just got into a certain stock. And I was like, Tom, I just bought

16:05this stock. But I don't know anything about it. You ever do that? He's like, yeah, all the time. Who cares? It doesn't matter. If the price is going up, that's all I care about. I don't know who the CEO is. I don't know what the news is. As long as price is turning upward, I'm interested. And when price turns around, I'm out. And you can see a lot of that in my trading style. So I don't know. It's just you have to pick and choose what works best for you. And as you've heard me say, create your own plan. Don't follow my plan. Don't follow my plan. My plan was not not meant for you. Now, can you follow my plan? I don't know. That's another question. Can you follow the plan? If you do, you have to have consistency and discipline. You can't just show up on the Tuesday and be like, I'm going to follow today today. And then the following Tuesday, you're like, well, I don't know. This thing I cashed out was boring. I'm going to do something else. And then the week after that, you're like, oh, you know what? I'm going to go back over to this. No, no, no, no, no, you got to pick your plan and you got to stick with it. You got to pick it and stick it. And then, right, there will be times where you have to modify the plan. When you modify

17:06the plan, you do so because of something happening, right? Maybe you go through a losing streak and you got to have a real hard conversation with yourself of, hey, did you even keep notes as to what happened in this losing streak? And then you need to separate the trades that won and the trades that lost. You need to say, okay, the trades that lost, was there a flaw in the plan? Was there something I didn't account for? Was there some sort of macro factor? Was there some sort of market factor? Was there some sort of sector factor? Was there some sort of factor down in the stock that caused? America leads the world in medicine development. It matters. We get new medicines first nearly three years faster. Five million Americans go to work because we make medicines here at home and not relying on other countries keeps us safe. But China is racing to overtake us. Will we let them or will we choose to stay ahead? When America leads, America cures. Let's tell Washington to keep us in the lead. Learn how at AmericaCures.com. Pay for by Farma.

18:08This episode is brought to you by Indeed. Stop waiting around for the perfect candidate. Instead, use Indeed sponsor jobs to find the right people with the right skills fast. It's a simple way to make sure your listing is the first candidate to see. According to Indeed data, sponsor jobs have four times more applicants than non-sponsored jobs. So go build your dream team today with Indeed. Get a $75 sponsor job credit at Indeed.com slash podcast, terms and conditions apply. Spring is here and the shopping list is long. Time to make a lows run. Buy three bags. Get three free. If stay green, one cubic foot garden soil. Plus right now, members can earn four times the points on an eligible purchase. Start spring off strong with these deals and more. Our best lineup is here at Loves. Valorant with three 25, while supplies last. Soil offer excludes the last and who why loyalty program subject to terms and conditions. See loads dot com slash terms for details. Subject to change point booster subject to exclusions and more terms apply one time only offer. A lot of these things do not work out. And then you need to go and back test that.

19:11Which is exactly what I did because back in November, I put on several trades in the financial sector. Every single one of them worked. I also put on several trades in the energy sector. Every single one of them lost. So I took some time and I looked at the the trades in the in the energy sector and I said, well, maybe there's some sort of correlation here. Right. Is there really a flaw on the plan? So what I did was I looked at the I looked at the price of oil, which actually was trending down at that time. And what I found was that because I have the data to back this up, when oil was trending down historically speaking in our back tests that actually had a greater expectancy than when oil was trending up. So you know what that means? There wasn't a flaw on the plan. It's just bad luck. It's just bad luck. And that absolutely is part of the game. If you can't build losers into your plan, you don't have a plan. Winning is an unavoidable consequence of trading. Losing is also an unavoidable consequence of trading. If you can't build

20:14losers into the plan, you don't have a plan. Let's keep going. PC or SPCI. If spies in a downtrend, should I still reach search for some sector or invest on or should I sit and cash in Eskuff? Let's up to you, dude. Right. What's your plan? And again, continuously, I will always reinforce the fact of creating that plan, the personal agency to come up with your own plan. For me and my plan, like this, it starts with the market. If the market is not trending in the direction of that that I want to go, right? It's literally the first thing I look at, the first thing. It is literally the first thing in outlier on all stocks. What is the market doing? If the market is trending down, you are asking for trouble. You wonder why, not you in particular, but traders and investors wonder why. It's so hard to make money right now. And the answer is staring you right in the face because the market is not getting bigger. The market is not getting greedier. The market

21:19is getting more fearful. In fact, let's go to Spyroquick. The market is getting more fearful. The investors in the market are getting more fearful. And what you see is a situation like this. Let me slide for this. Right, where is my slide? Hold tight. I have too many slides. But no regrets. Okay. What you see is a situation like this. Market breadth peaked. Let's speaking of, let's go to market breadth real quick. Market breadth peaked, meaning we're getting less and less buy signals, more and more sell signals, and it's pushing down. So market breadth is peaked. The market trend has peaked. We're getting sell signals. We're getting bearish trends going through. It's getting more fearful. Like there's, there's all kinds of things to tell you. And literally, I got to get you to understand, there are so many things screaming at you. Do not invest a single penny right now. And I'm not saying this is you, but there are people saying,

22:20no, I know better than the market. I'm going to pick the bottom. I know it's only going to go from here. There are so many reasons. I count on, on, on, on, on all my fingers and all my toes. And I got all 10 of them on both as to why you don't want to trade. All stocks are bad. And every once in a while, they act right. Every once in a while, they hit that stage to beautiful uptrend that you're looking for. But you can't force it. And the city and cash part is there so you don't blow up your account because this is what's happening to a lot of people. They got in right at the top. And then it came down and they are refusing to sell as it goes down. And this is when they sell right at the bottom when it starts to go back up. This is the reality for most people. This should not be the reality. If you're watching this channel, if you're an outlier, this should not happen to you. Now, of course, there will be times where you buy the top. That's happening many times and will continue to happen to me. But I also

23:22am going to get right back out. And that's okay too. For the past 30 minutes, the spy has been flat. Hughes acting the same way. David, I have not put minute candles into my trading plan for the last, I don't know, decade. It doesn't look like much of a question. It just looks like more of a statement. And that's totally fine. If that's part of your plan, by all means, use that for me. I don't care. But that's okay for you, right? That's okay for you. What is the profit for Escov if you look profit with outlier and profit with hold? I think I'm tracking what you're saying. Let's go out of the S&P 500 and let's go to SoFi. Let's go to SoFi here. Let's pull out the performance summary of SoFi.

24:25So one thing that we want to look at here is when the stock is turning up and outliers taking advantage of this. In fact, this is not the best one. I'll be very honest with you. Capital efficiency is pretty low on this. 0.06. So that's not the best one. Let's go to Tesla. This will help illustrate my point better. Capital efficiency here is 6x. 6x. And that's a cool thing about an outlier. You can actually see before you get in, if the outlier buying cell signals are really good on this particular stock or not, right? That's part of your back testing. And this one here, it's literally double what buy and hold is. And you're only in at one third of the time. So the math behind it means that on a daily basis, using the outlier buying cell signals gets you a 6x return versus buy and hold on a per day basis. But if I understand correctly, what is it when you include S-Gov? So every time you go to cash here,

25:27so basically sell out to zero, imagine you're actually getting a little boost from your S-Gov, getting a little boost from your S-Gov. So your overall game would be even higher, because you're not just sitting in cash sitting in zero on this particular stock. You're actually sitting in an interest-bearing account, and essentially, and that would boost your returns over so slightly. So there you go. It's a great question. As a retired new member, is there a link video on plan ETF? That's a good question. I don't know if you know this, but I've made like all the videos. How many videos have I made at this point? How many videos have I made at this point? 2.7,000 videos. Nearly 3,000 videos I have put on. So to answer your question, I don't know if I've made one or not. I can't keep track. However, there is a channel called Outlier Training with Joe, and Joe is doing a fantastic job. Go subscribe to Joe's channel.

26:30Joe is doing a fantastic job of taking the things that we're talking about and breaking them down into a lot more manageable how-to guides right there, all kinds of different playlists that are going to be helpful to you. I would start there, because honestly, that's my best answer. When is the next out our university? So right now, we're in the midst of doing the Champion Trader series. And in the Champion Trader series, I'm interviewing as many people who have competed in the US investing championship, or are competing in it right now, to learn as much as I can from them in order to do the best that I possibly can. It's selfish reasons because I want to do well this year, but also I want you guys to learn as well. So that is my priority right now. On Tuesdays and Thursdays, we're hooked out to like May. So honestly, I think the next outlier university is probably going to be sometime in the fall. I'm not committing to a time yet, the Charlie class, but we've already got two people who I have given slots to and assuming that they still can make it,

27:31that that will be the third group. But listen, don't miss out, don't miss out. Just go watch go watch Bravo and Alpha and absorb it. Take it in. Some amazing lessons in there, right? Not not just for me, but from from the people who have gone through the video themselves. Like I'm teaching everything I possibly know. And in that, you can be successful and you don't have to wait for Charlie, you can just get busy. Rick, looking at the run up on oil, what would you require to expand your trades to commodities? Well, right now, commodities are not in my plan. So what I would require, let's go to oil real quick, that's CL. Yeah, oh my goodness, gravy. Yeah, look at that. That's fine. I don't even care, right? A lot of people are going to look at this and be like, oh, man, I can't believe I missed out on this. I look at this and be like, cool. But it's not my plan. So I don't care. I don't even pay attention to it. That's how much I don't

28:32care. But to Rick's point, what would I need to look for? I would need to actually have had the time to go back and back test everything and prove out that there is an edge in this. And then I can build a plan and then I have to wait for that plan to to like fall out, right? I got to wait for that plan to actually come to fruition. And that's one of the reasons why I'm excited to have Scott and on staff quant here, hopefully by the summer, because things like this, there's there's great opportunities, Rick, great opportunities and things like this. And as of right now, I don't have the data. I don't have the crunching power to do that personally. Now, I need you guys to understand, I am not outlier. Okay, outlier, I am a partner in outlier is a software. I did not design the buying cell signals. I am the dancing monkey, right? I am the dancing monkey for outlier. But I'm also a trader. So consider it this way, outlier gives you buying cell signals, but you've got to develop your plan around it. And all the engineers and mass scientists and all the smart people that work

29:34at our company, I don't get access to they work on the software. But when I have a quant on staff, then he's mine. I get to I get to use him for all my evil and the various purposes. Um, let's keep going here. Are there any plans for short signals at some point? Yes. Now the reason I say is at some point is that while we do have buy and sell signals inside of outlier, it is currently built as a long only platform in development. And I can't tell you when it'll be we will have shorting signals. And by all means, it could be a great time to do that. I will caution you though. I will caution you. Um, by the way, as I say, uh, a fake guru on the internet, I'm going to say there's no possible way I can go lower than this. No way. If it comes out of my circle right here, then the market's not acting right because it should fit in my circle. I'm just saying I tell the market where to go. But if it falls out of it, then then the market's wrong. I'm just saying that's

30:34some of these guys are so freaking stupid on YouTube. They'll draw a chart on the they'll draw a box on the chart or a line or whatever and be like, that's the bottom. Just start buying once it hits the bottom. Shut the front door. Get out of the way. Just like literally get out of the way. If it's not working, just get out. Right. If it's if it's going to blow past us, just get out remove that. Okay. But also a lot of people are probably pretty pissed today. Look at my whole watch this over here is red, except for oil and gold. Escov and silver. Everything else is like bleeding red. And I have no stress. In fact, tell me in the chat, if you are feeling absolutely no stress in this market right now, put hashtag outlier, hashtag outlier. But if you are feeling some stress, tell me how much I'm curious. If you're feeling no stress in this market like me, hashtag outlier. But where I was going with that is when you try to go short, it's actually really, really, really more difficult. Why? Because the biggest up moves happen in the midst of downtrends.

31:35Like this candle right here, this is a 10 and a half percent up move in the midst of a downtrend. A 10 and a half percent up move. So the entirety of an entire year's worth of spies gains happen in one single candle. That's a really hard thing to do. A ton of people who want to go short get hosed because it's not as easy as going along. It's really not. So I definitely want to caution you against that. But also the charlatans who want to say time in the market beats timing the market. And if you're out of the market for the 10 best days of the year, then you're missing out on 90% of the games. Bull hockey. That's what grandpa you will say. Bull hockey. You really think that getting this one candle right here would have changed everything for you. Let's disregard the fact that the trend changed and it got as low as 20% and after that candle, it was down only 9%. Follow the trend of the market as long as it goes. Now there will be times where you make a

32:42buck or lose a buck, but you can make all the bucks. If you get in and right on the way up, let's even do a little bit of math here, right? The 10, 20, 50 cross right here. And the first time a cross back down was right there. That was a 21% gain on the market. Now you may have made a buck or lost a buck here a couple of times over. Maybe you're right here. And then, you know, I don't know, a couple of crossovers here and there, right? But the big moves always happen, always happen with the exact same thing. The 10 or 20 price or 50, the outlaw trend template. It always works because it's just math. This does not. And listen, hear me out, because some people get this backwards. The crossover does not make the move. The move is made by math. Oh, maybe I shouldn't say that. The move is made by the fear and greed going more greedy, right? People getting more greedy. But the moving averages are just a history book. They're just showing you what's happened with time

33:44and price. So just because these crossover, this is not a magical thing that says, oh, we got a crossover. It's going up to the moon. But every time it goes up to the moon, it starts with this crossover. But also, every time we go sideways and it gets really frustrating, it also starts with that crossover. Okay, the crossovers are not magical. It's just a history book. I love lepra says, I'm trying to do order blocks just like yours. It's unclear for me. What info do you use? Okay, well, here's how you get to the exact same order blocks as mine. Ready? Go into our discord. Go into our discord. Once you're in our discord, go to the FAQ and member contributions. Go to trading view. And you're going to get this indicator right here, the official deep thought indicator. Click that button. It'll pull it up. Save it as a favorite. And then, after you've saved it as a favorite, because you can see it's here, it's one of my

34:48favorites, you can enable it. When you enable it, it's the same because it's what I use. The deep thought four two. There you go. Now, how do you get into our discord? You got to become an ally. Down on the bottom right hand corner, after you sign up, there's a discord button, and that's how you get started. Now, do you need this? No. Does it make your life a million times easier? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Susan. I might have time for Susan, plus two more, and then I got to go. I am struggling when a stock drops unexpectedly. And before I can react to get out of the way, I could be down 20%. If I remember, you said you never put a stop loss in your trades. I don't put stops in the market. I know exactly where I'm going to get out. Period full stop. If that happens, I am out of the way. Now, it sounds like these stocks you're trading are super volatile. If a stock is super volatile,

35:50you can see it in its ATR value. In fact, let's go to silver, because I want to show you what it looks like when it expands. So you can add ATR onto your chart, and I've got it down here. The ATR, the average true range, the volatility of silver was around 60 cents. And then the volatility went up to about $1.44, so more than double. Meaning, if you were trading a hundred shares of silver here, and then you start trading a hundred shares of silver here, you've now got twice the risk that you had before because of volatility has doubled. And then volatility went all the way out from 60 cents up to $8. So volatility more than 10x. So if you're still trying to trade the same hundred shares over here, as you were over here, you have 10 times more volatility. Now, it may not seem like all that much, because you know what, it's the same product. It's still silver, but you have 10 times more volatility. If you're getting into a stock that moves 20%, I would imagine you've got a lot of volatility,

36:50which means you may want to back down on size, like bigly, hugely. This is the formula that I use for position sizing. And it changes on a stock-to-stock day-to-day week-to-week level, where's my slide? Because the ATR will change. You take the account balance that you have, and you multiply by the risk percent. Your risk percent needs to be consistent. You can't say, I'm going to do one percent on this stock, and I'm going to do eight percent on the next stock. No, no, no, no, you don't get to do that. You pick one risk percent, and you stick with it. Until you're profitable enough, where you can say, you know what, okay, I'm ready to bump up. Maybe start at one percent. After you've had six months of profitability, bump it up to two percent. After six months, more months of profitability go up to three or four percent. You don't get to pick and choose. This is a fixed value. And then you divide it by two times the ATR. That'll give you the number of shares. Now, I'd like to take that and then divide by the 80 delta, which is where I live, and that gives you the number of option contracts.

37:51Now, linked down below for a hundred percent free, a thousand percent for free is my trading template. So go down to the position sizing dashboard, the portfolio manager template, right? It'll actually tell you, you put in your numbers over here, you put in your risk percent, it will tell you how many shares would hit that, and then how many option contracts that would come to, okay? So for example, let's say I had a $51,000 account with a five percent risk. I could trade 424 shares of DTE or five option contracts. Now, one thing that's really smart, and in fact, it looks like it just went the other direction, is that once it goes under its 10 EMA, it doesn't even give it to you. It doesn't even give it to you on purpose, right? Because why would you want to be buying a stock? That's below its 10 EMA. It was below its 10 EMA. That means it is trending down. I'm not buying any stocks. So it's kind of a failsafe. It's not even going to calculate it for you. All right, two more, and I really have to go. That took too long.

39:02When selling Escov and you have been invested with all capital and immediately buying options, assuming the whole capital as well, what's the effect margin on a trader? So I did have a couple times where I had to call up trader and say release my margin, release the cracking. But they said there was an issue in my account that's been resolved, so it shouldn't be an issue now. When you have, there's different types of accounts. There's cash accounts and margin accounts. Don't get a cash account. Seriously, and if you have a cash account, convert it to a margin account. When you have a margin account, it will give you a lot more freedom, so that doesn't happen. Why did I make you sell your sofa shares? How could I? I don't know. Gosh, dude, I don't know. Maybe it's because it's a way easier to buy a stock that's crashing up, way easier to make money on a stock that's crashing up than to try and find where the bottom is instead of buying it as it's crashing down. Okay, I got to run. Thank you guys for coming. I hope this was useful. If it was, do me a favor, and this really does make a difference. Like and hype it. This really honestly does make a difference. We're

40:04finding in the algorithm, so like and hype. And if you're ready to save time and make money and start winning less risk, click one of these two videos. We'll talk soon.