The Truth About China: Collapsing & Conquering? | Peter Alexander

0:00Chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting 4 hours or more, can make me feel like a spectator in my own life. Botox, on a botulinum toxin A, prevents headaches and adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It's the number one prescribed branded chronic migraine preventive treatment. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. Alerture doctor right away is difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue and headache. Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS Lugeric's disease, Myasthenia Gravis or Lambert Eaton Syndrome, and medications, including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. Why wait? Ask your doctor, visit BotoxCronicMigraine.com or call 1-800-44 Botox to learn more.

1:25The truth when it comes to China is always in the middle. Again, just to reiterate the point, China is not on the precipice of collapse, nor is China on the verge of assuming hegemonic global power. Welcome to Thalphamuni. I'm Thalphamuni, founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Very pleased to be welcoming you here for a special return discussion with Peter Alexander, his founder and CEO of Zben Advisors, a leading provider of market intelligence and strategic advice on every facet of China's asset management industry. Peter, thanks so much for joining us again. Great to be back, Adam. Thanks. I also want to note for folks, Peter's too kind to say it. It is very early his time, but he was kind enough to get up, get in the office to have this discussion with us. So Peter, you know, his best I sort of understand in a nutshell, your mission and especially why you're coming on programs like this one,

2:29is to just help demystify China for Westerners. There's so much we in the West don't know about China, maybe assume about China, that might not be correct. You have lived and worked there for decades. How long has it been? 30 years. 30 years, man. You look like you must have started when you were 12 years old. Thanks. All right. But anyways, you know of which you speak because you have lived and worked there for three decades. Is a lot of questions I have about China and many of which come to my attention from Thalphamuni users or reading your works that you publish, which are great, by the way, how they recommend everybody get on your list and we'll talk about the end discussion, how folks can do that. But I'd like to start with something you just wrote about called the cat theory of geopolitics. Yeah, if you know my, in feel free to elaborate on it any way you like,

3:31but you know, the point is, is there's a lot going on geopolitically as whole shift from globalization to deglobalization and reshoring, it just seems to be accelerating. As time goes on, there's a lot of, you know, specific events that seem to be adding propulsion to it, like what's going on with Iran, obviously. So when it comes to the grand game, right, the world, the big world power is playing here and China's rolling it, give us your latest assessment and maybe explain it through the lens of the cat theory. So the, you use the word mission and I think this is critical when anybody is consuming any content they see from myself, whether it's on a podcast or, you know, reading anything that I might write is, as I mentioned on our last podcast when we talked six months ago, the truth when it comes to China is always in the middle. Again, just to reiterate

4:36the point, China is not on the precipice of collapse nor is China on the verge of assuming hegemonic, you know, global power. The, the process that is underway is a, a shift, if you will, where we've heard Chinese leaders, particularly Xi Jinping coming out, talking about changes not seen in a linear and there is a lot of that that's in play, but it's not really about China seeking to replace the United States. So when you're assuming, or I guess when you're looking at and talking basically reading anything about China, there is a level of projection that gets used whereby, you know, whether it's think tank analysts in the beltway or, you know, other people that are weighing in that are geopolitically focused. What you're going to find is there is an American or a, what I

5:37refer to as sort of a post 1945 mindset that seeks to be able to overlay exactly what's going on today, whether it's with regard to the Iranian conflict, whether it's regarding AI, whatever the case may mean, and then they'll take that mindset and apply it to China. And it's very, it's very understandable why that's the case because what you actually have had over the past 500 years, I mean, look at someone like Ray Dalio, right? He comes out and he talks about, you know, the great powers and what it means to have, you know, financial insecurity and, you know, over-indentiveness and what have you. But he's looking at the United States and he's looking prior to that at the UK and prior to that, what, Spain, Portugal, the Dutch. These are all Western powers, and they all operate, they all operate from a perspective of what I refer to as sort of Judeo-Christian ethos.

6:37So when you hear things like cultural gaps, that is, I think, one of the most important missing elements as people try to navigate or understand what is going on today. Because China clearly is not a Judeo-Christian or a Greco-Roman, you know, basis. They're either confusion or they're Taoist or whatever the case might be. So in a lot of the work that I try to do, I try to find a way to bridge that gap and try to explain, look, if you want to have a sense of what's really going on, you actually have to understand where China is coming from. What is the driving motivation? There are some that have come out recently with articles talking about sort of what does China want. But again, what I have found in a lot of that writing or analysis is it's what is China want from our perspective as Americans, as the Hegemon, and we're going to project our world view on that thinking. So you raised the concept of cat theory, the cat theory of geopolitics.

7:43So some of you, or many of you who are watching this, Irma Sainte-Ku, this, may have come across a very famous quote from about, God, 40 years ago now, where the then paramount leader of China, gentlemen by the name of Deng Xiaoping, came out and said that a white cat or a black cat does not matter as long as it catches mice. And his, his, the use of that phrase, which actually goes further back than 40 years ago even, was referring to economic reforms and the way that it was, I refer to superficially interpreted, was that we don't care if it's capitalist or socialist, we don't care about the ideology, as long as we can drive ourselves closer to more economic growth, more resiliency, what have you. So there was always this thinking that the quote, the black and white cat, was in reference to these economic reforms, which without question it was. But as I mentioned,

8:44it was more of a superficial reading of what his intentions were. And what I had written was, I don't even believe that Deng, when he made the statement, knew that he had inadvertently shared a little bit of China's grand landing as it were. And what do I mean by that? It's the black and white cat that matters. And what I mean, it's not the catching of the mice per se, that's the objective certainly. But what he was indicating was, we're going to follow what appear to be contradictory approaches, because we don't know which one's going to work. So if we follow different approaches, we improve the probability of catching the mice. So some of the examples that I give is the geopolitical world has always been fascinated with the debate raging behind the Mayhands versus McKinner, you know, theory of geopolitical power. Mayhands said to have power,

9:46you need naval power, you need to have control over brave routes, you need to have ports, what have you? McKinner said, no, what you need is you need control over the Asian landmass, you need to have control over the heartland. China, or I should say before China, globally, most people have been based in a situation where they're saying, okay, we need to pick one of the other, which do we want? And again, it's understandable, because if you look at the last two world powers, the UK and the US, they didn't have any access really to the Asian landmass. So of course, they were going to side on naval power. China simply said, why do we need to make a choice? We want to have both the black cat and the white cat. So what we're going to do is we're going to build a blue water navy. And at the same time, we're going to build pipelines and railways and what have you across the Asian landmass, which is what they have done. So you can see this play out at a very high end level,

10:51but to make it more, and then I'll stop and get your questions. But to make it more relevant in today's world, think about energy policy. What we've seen over the course, and I shouldn't say seen what we have witnessed is a realization in other places that China has no real affinity towards any one source of energy. They're the world's largest consumer of coal, true, and they're also the world's largest builder of renewable energy, solar power, what have you. So you'll hear people say, oh, you know, a molecule is a molecule. And they're referring to most often just fossil fuels, natural gas, coal, petroleum. China takes it one step further. Their argument is an electron is an electron, whatever powers the system. So their objective, the catching of mice is to have enough power to suit whatever needs they have.

11:54But they have, I don't know, how many colored cats running around trying to meet that need. So these are just two of the broader examples. I can give you dozens of other examples, but this is the perfect way to highlight the manner in which China is operating in today's world. They're not constrained by any real ideology, regardless of how it's based or presented, if you will, by other geopolitical analysts, especially those in Washington. They are, I believe, ideologically indifferent. Their objective is resilience, not growth, but resilience. Okay. So a lot of questions that come out of that, but it sounds like in terms of the way in which China approaches its goals is a very means independent one, right, which is there. This is the goal. If we have to have 50 cats of 50 different colors, maybe 50 different breeds, you know, that's all fine.

12:56You know, and along the way, maybe we'll learn, maybe we'll refine, but we're not going to limit ourselves to one particular strategy, we'll be multi-strategy and let the best strategies win out for us. Which I think is useful. Let me ask you this though. So I don't know if this is a challenging or easy request, but you say, and I get it, that Americans tried to understand China through, or Westerners have tried to understand China through a Western lens. If you had to kind of, I think a couple adjectives or phrases about China that you think would clarify, kind of how the Chinese culture thinks, operates, etc. That is different from the Western tag that we're trying to hammer them through. What would they be? Well, the first word I always use for people is different. And this maybe is a bit of a cop out,

13:59but I'll get to a few more. And what I mean by different is a lot of conversations I'll have with people is they'll try and say, the China conversation is nuanced. You need to, it's not nuanced. In fact, I'm not the biggest fan of the word nuance because for me, that is the ultimate cop out, because you have individuals that don't want to take a side. They want to be able to say, yes, and not yes, but so it's not nuanced. It's just different. And you need to know those differences. There's also, I refer to it. I think it's actually two words, not one, but time preference, meaning it's a high time preference. So I'm not a believer. And I think this has always been a bit of an errant way to look at China where they they think in long generations about what they're doing. Right. They think longer term relative to everybody else. And again, you don't need to outrun the bear. You just need to outrun the other guy. All right. So some people say China thinks in centuries

15:02where we think in years or quarters, a little bit of an exaggeration. They just think they're willing to be more patient than we is sort of the way to say it. Right. There's an understanding of what I would say more macro trends. And they will identify those macro trends. And they will begin to try and think through them. But there's no hard or firm, if you will, sort of policy directive or strategic plan that is gospel. Meaning they're not going to just follow that. They're going to be very adaptable. That's another good adjective I think we can use. Okay. Patient, I guess is the best way to use the time preference point before. And I would say another word is methodical. Meaning they do stick to their script. But they stick to their script on a handful of areas that are to them very hard for red lines both with regard to domestic policy

16:04as well as foreign policy. So it's just much more different. And again, there's societal issues. China has, and this has been an unfortunate, I think, for me change has been, there's a shared degree of shared sacrifice and a willingness to have shared sacrifice here in China. There's this famous quote that Xi Jinping had given a few years ago about Chuku, meaning to be able to eat bitterness. And for many in the West, this was viewed as leadership that was unwilling to be, to have an understanding about the plight of the average person was that wasn't really the case. It was more about we're going through a period of adjustment within the domestic economy as well as facing challenges, if you will, on the foreign side. And we're going to need to take time to be able to work through this. And people are going to have to have a shared sacrifice in moving forward. And the Chinese will do just that. And again, I say that being unfortunate,

17:06because I remember growing up that there was that somewhat of a sense in the United States that I just don't see present anymore. Yeah, no, those are some some ideas. Very helpful. And last part, I was going to make the analogy that like, you know, the greater generation, you know, they were very familiar with victory gardens and rationing to help get through the wars one. There was a sense of the nation being able to tighten its belt when it needed to. I don't know if we did that DNA much anymore. Sadly, to your point. Agreed. Okay. So we'll move on to, you know, specifics, oil, trade, AI, energy, uh, writ large, all that stuff. But real quickly on this, um, you would said their goal is more resilience versus growth. And I'm just curious. Is it, is it accurate or at least semi accurate to say that China's grand strategy as a sovereign power

18:07is to outlast versus overcome. You know, in America at times, we've we've had the fears that, oh gosh, we're all going to be working for our Chinese overlords, um, you know, in a couple of decades and China's threatening Taiwan. And they just want to expand. Um, interestingly, and I'm not a massive student of China, certainly not nearly the way I'm sure you are. It just doesn't seem to be much in Chinese China's historical DNA. Um, and so I'm wondering here if, if they're, their mindset here is like, look, we just want to prosper as best we can over time and let the other powers in the rest of the world, things even flow. And as they even flow, we'll just try to keep getting better and better and the chips will fall where they may versus, uh, hey, we've got a secret plan to take over, you know, America's Western shores at some point in time. Chronic Migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more can make me feel like a spectator in my own life. Botox, on a botch, a line-up toxin A prevents headaches

19:10in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It's the number one prescribed branded chronic migraine preventive treatment. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. Alerture doctor right away is difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue and headache. Alerture reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS Lugeric's disease, myasthenia, gravis or Lambert Eaton syndrome and medications, including botch, a line-up toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. Why wait? Ask your doctor, visit Botox Chronic Migraine.com or call 1-800-44 Botox to learn more. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle

20:11from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online makes sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability very 16-plus. Right. There's, again, my humble opinion. There's no real mindset thinking if you will, in Beijing, hasn't been, I think, in since 1949, really, since the founding of a party, to be able to be a hegemon in the way that the United States is and the way the UK was. There is a desire to be hegemonic in nature, regionally, within Asia-Pacific. And that predominantly is driven by the mindset of, we just want the United States to leave the region and let us get and have a working relationship with South Korea, Japan, and elsewhere. We can talk about Taiwan. I know we talked about that last time, but the, I think the real objective

21:17right now for China is, and it's interesting because there is a somewhat longer term trajectory that they have been on, but here and now, there is a recognition. I don't know if it is an accurate one or not, but there is a belief, I should say, not a recognition in Beijing at the moment, that events that are playing out in the G7 nations are going to result and lead to some form of economic crisis similar to 0809. Again, I've had conversations with people here locally, and I've said maybe, but I would be very mindful of making those kind of assessments, especially with regards to the United States, I as an American, the United States is a very resilient, a very tenacious country, and I think over time, you could see changes made where there could be a move where you get to more solid ground, but for China, their belief is no, we believe that there's going

22:19to be calamity and we need to prepare for that. And this has been going on for four or five years now, and that's why I use the word resilience. And this ties in, I think, very usefully, to the comments about being able to view China from where they sit rather than to act on projecting your own point of view, because right now, what is far more important is to be able to have the resilience in terms of energy, have the resilience in terms of distribution, meaning rail lines across the the heartland, but critically, it's about bilateral relationships. And this is one of the most interesting differences that you will find between how the United States and the G7 more broadly were versus China. Europe, Japan, the United States, Canada, what have you, they will work where alliances matter, and they look at blocks whether it's NATO, whether it's the EU, August, whatever the case might be. You can argue things like the SCO

23:25or BRICS China has their own approach to blocks, but those are not really, I think, in the same vein. China looks at the foreign realm as one-on-one relationships. So the example that I will always give to people is Beijing will know that the UK and the US have a special relationship. And the foreign policy team here, they'll go to meet with their counterparts in the UK and say, look, we understand that you have that relationship, that's fine. But we can still have our own relationship, it doesn't have to be a special relationship. And then what will happen is they will do that individually at individual countries. And I'll explain why this is super important in a second. What we have with the United States, unfortunately, is a mindset that is, you're either with us, where you're with the terrorists, you either pick us or you pick China. And they're putting countries around the world in a very difficult spot, because we all see the data, right? China is the world's most important training partner for the vast majority of countries.

24:30And here you have the United States saying, no, you need to make a choice. But why is it that China follows this bilateral approach? And I think this is, again, one of the most critical differences to keep in mind. It all goes back to Sun Su and the Art of War. It's about dividing and conquering, meaning if you're able to get various individual nations together, and those individual nations want to be able to come and do business or have some sort of relationship with China, China is able to then play those bilateral relationships off one another. And this has been very useful. And the best way I use the example is, in the entire time I've been here, there have been, as you know, there are two major aircraft companies in the world, right? There's Boeing and there's Airbus. And they always want to sell their airplanes to China. And Airbus will come in and they'll give them a deal and they'll say, that's a great deal. And then somebody picks up the phone and calls Boeing and says, hey, we have this deal. Can you do better? And it's very commercially oriented. But it's also used as a foreign

25:35policy tool. And not to go too deep, if you can certainly go down this road, but what's interesting right now is throughout Washington, there's a growing consensus around this concept called Allied scale, meaning that the best way that the United States can effectively compete against China is to build this grand coalition, dare I say coalition of the willing, of like-minded liberal order democracies that when combined as a single alliance, single unit would be able to effectively counter and compete against China. Sounds as I like to tell people all the time, sounds great on paper. But in reality, China would love nothing more than for some alliance of that sort to be created, because all they would need to do is go in afterwards and pick off a few of the players and say, hey, well, yeah, we understand what you're doing. Why don't you come to China? We'll

26:38give you some special treatments and special access. And the edifice will crumble upon itself. And it's concerning to me because I do genuinely believe that an alliance structure would work, but on a much more limited scale, at least to start. I mean, why the United States, in my opinion, does not have a policy. And again, I say this somewhat rhetorically, where it's Canada, the US, and Mexico. Just start with that. And just say, look, we're going to have a common market free to go. And just that alone would be able to do significant, there would be significant positioning to be able to counter China in that situation. You know, bringing in the Europeans, I mean, how many countries in there in Gothamridge bring the Japanese and the Australians against complicated. So again, I get went down a rabbit hole apologies, but I think this is really how you want to look at where China is positioning itself right now, because they're using those bilateral relationships to support their own resilience internally.

27:41Yeah. Okay. So, I mean, no secret to anybody over the past couple of decades really, China's been out there striking trade deals with every country it can and making big investments in lots of countries around the world, especially in developing nations, you know, in the southern hemisphere. So they're, you know, what do they call that pocketbook diplomacy or whatever, where they're, you know, they're just trying to make friends and say, hey, you know, we're going to be liberal with our checkbook here and what do you need and we'll come in and help build these things. From what I hear, the deals always seem to end up working out to China's advantage anyways, but, you know, it's the grand game they're playing versus rattling sabers. They're rattling their coin purse. But you mentioned that, you know, especially certainly with the start of Trump's first administration, especially in his second, you know, it's been trade war, right? And it's been pretty much, hey,

28:43I'm, I'm pressuring everybody at the poker table to pick a side and really pushing most of you to pick mine. How is China reacting to that? Do they see it as an existential threat? Do they raise an eyebrow and just say, funny way of doing business, but we're going to outlast you here, no big deal for us. Like, what is their general reaction to that? Well, the, because I clearly get this question a lot from people when, you know, clients or just having conversations with people like this on zoom, the Chinese for them, it's just another Tuesday, you know, there's a bit of an eye roll. They're looking at what's going on. To be honest with Americans, they're doing something wild and crazy. Those cowboys. Yeah, there's, there's a, there's a, there's a real sense of awe, but not in a good way. It's kind of like what, what exactly is going on is, and people always like to talk about, oh, there's some,

29:43you know, grand strategy. I mean, look for, let me just give you a bit of a broader sense, because I think this is important is everybody said at the beginning of this sort of Iran conflict, right, that this was some five D chess move to counter China. And I've been surprised that there continues to be a decent number of people. I think they're pretty smart people as well. That continue to believe that this is the case. And I don't necessarily doubt that the intention was to find some way to, somewhat kneecap, if you will, the Chinese, you know, let's take out, then as well, an oil, let's take out a rainy and oil and what have you. Right. I mean, those two things are, those aren't small things. No, they're not. Yeah. But then you're probably not just raising an eyebrow at that. You're probably, that's a bit of a flesh road. Yeah. No, it's, it's certainly something where they will pay attention to it for a moment. But keep in mind, all of, I think Venezuela was probably something

30:48that was outside of what Beijing would have anticipated, but not Iran, because the Iranian issue had already cropped up a year ago, you know, when they were talking about mowing the lawn back in 2025. And there was a lot of chatter near the end of the year. And again, speaking of an eye role, I mean, this is, this was me doing an eye role, where China had in Q4 of 25 accelerated aggressively its imports of oil. And at the time, the headlines were speculating that China was up to something that were stockpiling oil. This, this indicate that there's a move on Taiwan, whatever the case might mean. What is, I think now somewhat obvious, perhaps not totally, but somewhat is Beijing was planning for the inevitability or the potential inevitability that the United States was going to move again on Iran. And they wanted to be able to buy oil while it was still at depressed levels. Right. And just like this is, this is focusing on

31:48resilience. This was them saying, look, if this were to happen, we don't want to be super vulnerable to it. Yeah. Correct. And at the same time that all this was going on, I mean, I can tell you from here, just in Shanghai, far more than half the cars on the road here now, EVs. And, you know, the whole shift to an electric state has been underway for quite some time, but it has been accelerated most definitely in the last six months. So what I'm trying to drive at here is, yes, there were events that would have been of direct consequence to Beijing. But there is also this issue of what I refer to as the China tail risk. And what I mean by the China tail risk are events in which China has its own control that can impact the world to a certain extent, but certainly global markets. Okay. So there were three to mind, but where are some other ones you would think of? Okay, rare earths were, and I've called this, I may have said this on your

32:54podcast before, is for me, rare earths were the ultimate magusin. And what I mean by that is, it was this sort of obvious shiny bubble that was there that sucked the air out of the room, for over a year. But what rare earths represented was something for me that is far more existential to the United States, which is rare earths represent a input to manufacturing in the US. You forget for now, whether it's defense oriented or if it's tech oriented, it's just an input. And China, and this I did mention was, you know, their biggest export now are intermediate goods. They're producing goods that go to other countries for their own manufacturing capabilities. So that was one, but as I said, it sucked the air out of the room. So what happens, what was it, back in June or what had you, where all of a sudden everybody stopped speaking of oil and said, my God, did China just save the oil market because they reduced by nearly 10 million barrels of oil

33:56in day, their imports from the Middle East. And yes, they did reduce their imports. No, they didn't do it because there was some agreement made when Donald Trump was in Beijing or it was done because the Chinese bought a ton of oil in advance of this at a low price and did not want to buy at a high price. And they worked down their reserves. It's a by-low, don't buy high premise. So you have that example and it's still playing out. What is China going to do? What is its role now? You've seen stories that are saying that China is now more important than OPEC to tell risk that people have woken up to. I'll give you another example. Soon thereafter, you would have seen a lot of headlines talking about this Chinese AI business called Kimi K3. Yeah, that's on my list, right? Right. Came out of nowhere. I was inundated with emails from people asking me, what does this

34:57mean? Is this as significant as it's being made out to be? And when I had these conversations with clients, my first question to them was, where were you last February when DeepSeat came out? And again, it's a bit of this very short term mindset. And I said, when DeepSeat came out, what China telegraphed to the world was, we're taking this seriously and we're going to aggressively move forward. So the Kimi K3 outcome should not have been a surprise. And my position then, as it is today, was you need to learn from the mistakes that were made during the DeepSeat moment. The DeepSeat moment occurred. There was a two-day flare-up where people got concerned about it and then it was forgotten. And then Kimi K3 comes in and I'm starting to say Adam, it came out. There was another period of excitement, concern, and it's already been forgotten. So you've got those two issues.

36:02And then the last one I'll give you is, have you seen all these headlines talking about China Shock 2.0? Something you're familiar with? I'm not sure if I've seen it exactly put that way. So is this an economic shock or is this something else? So China Shock 2.0, and it's again, it's all over the Washington DC tabloids. It's more of a Washington Brussels thing. China Shock 2.0 is Europe having woken up to the realization that their manufacturing base, predominantly in Germany, is now being replaced by China. China has moved up, moved up the value chain and is now producing similar quality, better pricing, manufacturing, things like specials chemicals, precision parts. That was the mainstay of the German economy. Right. Now, the issue I have with the whole China Shock 2.0 point is,

37:06how did Europe, and maybe it's just pure hubris, but how is it that Europe did not see this coming? Because China Shock 1.0 was what occurred to the United States, the hollowing out of the heartland, as we call it, where all of the manufacturing was off-shored and outsourced to China back in the 90s and the 2000s. This is just that, but at a higher value chain segment of X-Tigmas. And start interject, but I just given Europe's track record over the past couple of decades. Yeah, I think it's probably hubris and wolf of blindness. So these are events that are playing out that should have been planned for. These are tail risks, but they're not unknown, unknowns as it were. So, I mean, the example I give to groups right now is, look, you have to now plan for China Shock 3.0. If you want to go down this argument, which is South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and elsewhere, even the United States, where things

38:10like chips or anything related to the tech stack, all of that now is being manufactured in China as well. Now, at this point, the quality is not great. They don't have the yields. But when you see art, when you see news articles or anybody else saying, like, ASML is my favorite. ASML, which makes one of the most important components for the lithography that the Taiwanese need. You have ASML and others saying, the Chinese are 15 years behind us. Don't worry about it. People need to stop saying that because every time you hear the Chinese are so far behind, China was two or three years behind in AI. Now they're neck and neck. One of the, again, going back to my mission, my goal is to shake people and say, you need to take this seriously. Chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more, can make me feel like a spectator in my own life. Botox, on a botchaline, um, toxin A prevents headaches and adults with chronic migraine. It's not

39:14for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It's the number one prescribed branded chronic migraine preventive treatment. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Afex of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. Alerture doctor right away is difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection or at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue and headache. Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms, and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS, Lugeric's disease, Myastthenia, Gravis, or Lambert Eaton syndrome, and medications, including botchaline and toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. Why wait? Ask your doctor, visit BotoxCronicMigraine.com or call 1-800-44 Botox to learn more. This episode is brought to you by Palm Olive. Family time isn't just the big moments. It's weeknight dinners. Sitting around the table, everyone talking all at once. So when the plates are empty and the sink is full, use Palm Olive Ultra. Palm Olive's most powerful formula removes up to

40:1899.9% of grease, leaving your dishes sparkling clean, and the new convenient pump makes cleaning even easier. So you can spend less time tackling dishes and more time together. Shop now at Palm Olive.com. Alright, so I mean, I think more and more, I'll speak for myself, but I'll extrapolate to a lot of people watching this video. I think they've seen over the past decade plus, where they were told, yeah, China was way behind on X, Y, or Z, and they were, you know, a high-scale low-value commodity producer and, are not commodity producer, but, you know, the simple inputs, cheap cramp from China. Right, textiles and toys. Yeah. And I've seen, I mean, we haven't, you briefly mentioned electric cars, but, you know, we don't let any Chinese electric cars in America because they would completely crater the whole market here, because they're

41:22there's so much cheaper in, in many ways, as advanced, if not in some cases, more advanced, than what's on the road here in America. Right. I mean, you know, this way better than I. Right. So they've cut up to us. Well, in a whole bunch of industries that people thought, oh, everybody was telling me they'd never catch up with us, but now they're nipping at our heels, right? Yeah. I mean, here's, here's again, something that is concerning for me, is, it's not just EVs. Right now, you camp, I was interesting. This last week was a really, there was an interesting development. You know, we all have this, the new Apple foldable phone that came out, right? And two days prior, both Huawei and another company called Xiaomi, they announced their news slate of phones and they've been in the foldable space for years now. And it was the first time, though, where the Chinese smartphone manufacturers announced prior to Apple, normally in years past,

42:25these companies have announced a week or two after Apple. And that means there's a growing confidence that they have the product that people are really interested in. But to your point, it's not just you can't get EVs in the US, you can't get Chinese mobile phones in the US, you can't get the best drones in the world in the US, even things like routers. I mean, a lot of things that are manufactured here, especially that are probably the best quality and at a reasonable price, you can't get access to all under the umbrella of quote unquote national security. Right. Robotics. Right. Isn't robotics a great test, right? Yep. The humanoid, the humanoid robotic generation. And again, I told people, whatever you think of the EV market, China's going to do in humanoid robotics, what it did in EVs, just faster. So you're seeing that rolling out. But the example that I give to everybody is always I start with is TikTok. You know, TikTok was either

43:28going to be so-called bought end or banned because of national security reasons, right? It had nothing to do with national security. It had everything, or at least the vast majority in my opinion, it was all about money. It was Facebook and Google and Snapchat, all of the American dominating social media platforms, they were getting decimated by TikTok in terms of ad revenue. The ad revenue was flowing all to TikTok and they needed to stop it. So what did they do? And again, this is an extreme concern of mine is they went the route not to build a better mouse trap, not to compete. They went the regulatory, right, regulatory capture. Let's go to Washington. Let's make a big deal of this. They did the same thing with drones where there's a drone company called Skydeo in California that was getting its part of my expression, Askix globally by DJI. So they went to Congress and it's jokingly referred to as the Skydeo act

44:30to say, okay, DJI drones no longer available in US. So what I wish would happen is that these companies were able to come into the United States were to manufacture in the United States and then force the American companies to be able to compete and have better products because it's not just that you have more expensive products in the United States. You have inferior products. I mean, let's be honest, Apple, what did they innovate in the last six years? Oh, no, it's a great example. Like, their big innovation is this foldable phone. It's like, those have been available over in Asia for a freaking 10-plus years now. Correct. And again, I think the me using Apple, it's another issue I have, which is, what has Apple done for the last 10 years is they've taken this cash cow that they've created and they've financialized it by buying back shares and paying off dividends. Their cat-backs is done nothing. They haven't reinvested in the company. You know,

45:31my attitude is why didn't Apple say we're going to come back and find a way to manufacture? I know I think they're building one facility in Texas, I believe, but you know, why didn't they say in 2018 when the trade war started? They, we see the riding on the wall. We have all of this money. Let's come back and let's just manufacture in the United States because they know that if they were to do so, the price point would go from $2,000, which is just insane to me to begin with, to what, $4,000. So I, it corporate America needs some accountability here. I don't mean to go off on a tangent or get on my soapbox, but things like, I disagree with that. Yeah. But you've heard about IP theft in China forever, right? Sure. Yeah. Okay. IP theft has been going on for as long as I've been here, 30 years. Adam, at some point, if you know IP theft's going on, why are you still manufacturing there? Right. And are they just addicted to two laborers? That it?

46:33It's not, it's not that it's cheap labor. The cheap labor in China has gone, there's still pockets of it, but it's, China has created these, these hubs, these manufacturing hubs, where the efficiency of being able to get parts and manufacturing together, and it's iterative, but when the final manufacturer needs to make changes, the suppliers are able to react quickly. So there's a scalability issue. It's, the price is definitely the driver, but not due to labor. It's an efficient ecosystem is what you're saying. Correct. But when you hear the grandstanding by these corporate executives talking about IP theft, it is exactly that it is grandstanding because they know that it's just the cost of doing business but they want to be able to present that, oh, we're being, you know, the Chinese are stealing our IP. By the way, which they are, don't get me wrong. Yeah. But again, but we'll know this.

47:35Right. And if you've known this for the better part of two decades plus, maybe you should have moved manufacturing so this wasn't going to be an issue. And if you haven't, why haven't you? I mean, those are the questions people aren't asking. Okay. In part of what China has done here too, right, is they've really invested in their human capital, meaning I think they have a gargantuan number of PhDs, engineers and PhDs that they've been graduating compared to say the US. So they've made it sort of a national priority to, hey, we want to become, we don't just want to be the t-shirts and toys, you know, manufacturer. We want world-class products. They're investing to make that happen. And again, over a fairly long period of time, it takes a while to educate these folks and go out in the world and build their expertise. Right. That's them being more patient in many ways than we. I want to ask you this real quick. So most of what you've said about China directly or indirectly,

48:42so far in this conversation has been pretty flattering. I'll say, like, you know, we're talking about the things that China's doing really well here. And as you said at the very beginning, you know, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle about whether they're, you know, the next great superpower or whether they, you know, are about to collapse under the weight of a whole bunch of other unsustainable trends. Probably neither of those, probably somewhere in the middle. What are some of the things, if you can say them without a bunch of guys breaking down the door here and guarding you away? What are some of the things you think China, some of the things that are handicapping China right now? Yeah. Oh, there's a lot. And again, I'm glad you bring it back to sort of this element of it. The idea is, number one, it's the economy. There's no doubt the economy is still soft. The drivers of economic growth in the past, which were predominantly what, property,

49:48infrastructure and exports, they have all moved to export focused. You know, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4 trillion, US dollars and a trade surplus is not sustainable. So the question I have always kept front and center is whether or not the approach that China is taking to its economic transition is going to work. It's still a very open question. There's an enormous amount of debt. Debt overhang here is significant. There has been, however, an ongoing debt restructuring program where a lot of the debt is not at the central government level, a lot of the debt, most of the debt in fact is at the local government level. And that is due to how China ran its economy for most of my time here, up until around 2017. And that local government debt,

50:50it's $10, $15 trillion. It's significant. Now we've seen a process underway where what the government is doing is they've been issuing bonds. Those bonds are then being used to retire debt that's on off balance sheet and bring it back on balance sheets, also restructuring lower. There's a lower cost involved. So there's some restructuring going on, but I'm not, and it's because the data is very unclear here. I'm not sure if they've been able to tackle a small portion of it. I think they've done something like $2 trillion US dollars or so to date over the last three or four years. So the debt issue continues to be an overhang. You're also dealing with, you mentioned about all of the students that are coming out. So if you look at youth on employment, you know, we can broadly define it as demographics. And demographics has been an issue since I was here in the beginning. There was always this comment that China was going to grow rich,

51:51I'm sorry, grow old before I grew rich, is somewhat playing out in the aggregate. I do find it a bit difficult though to take this China have a youth unemployment issue or does have a demographic issue because right now you would think those two elements are a bit non-compatible. But there are issues right now where all of these highly educated kids aren't able to find jobs that they thought they were going to be able to find. So they're presuming that AI will make that worse just as it will in the rest of the world if it continues to kind of eat up the stack of higher and higher tech capability jobs. It's certainly a risk. I think one of the, and again, very anecdotal, I've only talked to a handful of people, but and it's a good segue. AI in China is not being, they're not trying to find, you know, as many people now are starting to say, but they're not trying to find God in a box, trying to build this sort of super intelligence.

52:52China's approach to AI is how do we make things more efficient? And especially how to make things more efficient in manufacturing, which I've already seen a handful of groups that are doing this. The groups that I've talked to have said, you know, I don't know, I can't verify, but they've said that they've been able to, the people that no longer were needed for certain jobs were moved into other areas of the company. But if you do have a manufacturing centric economy, and you're going to deploy AI, it does stand a reason that you're going to, you're going to have people that are going to be displaced. If efficiency is your goal, which it sounds like is there in North Star, it will eventually make the case we can do it without as many people. Yeah. Right. And but again, the counter-argument to that is, okay, well, does that not necessarily, not to a full sense, but, spalled to a great extent, the demographic issue, right? Now, I think the demographic issue that's much more important is the issue of, and I agree with this point that people have made, look, robots don't buy sneakers, like they're not consumers.

53:57You actually need people who are going to be able to spend to keep the economy going. Because the other thing in terms of risks is, you see this highlighted often, it's an imbalance economy because you have exports and infrastructure, let's say, but the share of growth in the Chinese economy that is from household consumption is still pretty low. It's 30% compared to say, 70% in the United States. So this is the rebalancing that is underway. And for me, the point in which I will have increased confidence that it's working is when you start to begin seeing real policy out of Beijing that is specifically directed towards household consumption. And I'm not talking like, in the last few years, they've issued things that are called vouchers, which is, you know, we're going to give you some money to go out and buy a washing machine or a new car or whatever. But it's not sustainable. China does not believe in stimulus checks that

55:01you not believe in a welfare state. People have made the argument that there is no social safety network in China. Yes, and no. You do have a social safety network. Is it as robust as we in the West would want? Probably not. Is it suitable for the Chinese? Maybe. But I think for me, the most fascinating subject that I'm just laser-like on every day is this economic transformation. Are they going to be able to, you know, cross that proverbial Rubicon and get to the other side where you do have consumption, you do have advanced manufacturing, you do have much more of a service oriented economy. And it's way too early right now to be able to weigh in and say whether that's working or will work and succeed. The jury is really out on that one right now. All right, I'm hearing you on that. So is it fair to say through your eyes? Anybody's call at this point in time? Oh, absolutely. I, the, and again, I don't, I don't want to come back and sound

56:07as though I'm being favorable. I love that word. Very diplomatic. Thank you. About what's going on in China. But there, there does need to be a recognition that there were, China had encountered a serious economic headwind, which was the, the model that was used between, call it 1986 and 2017, had gone too far. It was just all based on debt. And China still has an enormous amount of debt in stock, meaning it's stuck. It was starting to erupt. It was a lot of unproductive debt, right? We're building all these ghost cities and stuff like that with that, that no one's ever going to live in. They're just basically appreciating wooden boxes out there, right? But we're taking on debt to, yeah, there's over though. Yeah, absolutely. The oversupply of housing is something that is continued to be worked through. But the, the point that I just like to try to make is,

57:09these issues are found in, in every large global economy in the world. You've got entitlement problems. You've got over debt and this. You got to give credit to the Chinese to say, okay, we recognize it. Let's see what we can do to try to fix it. And that's the process that they're going through at the moment. And again, I'm going to stress. I am in no position. And I do not, I agree. I do not believe anybody's in a position to either say it's going to work or it's not going to work. Not at this point. Okay. All right, a couple, a couple other quick things. One thing I meant to mention at the beginning, I'll squeeze, squeeze it now, which is the person who put you on my radar. Peter was Luke Gromand, our mutual friend. Right. And Luke said, look, you know, everything I've learned about China, I've learned from Peter. He's a big advisor of mine. So, folks, if you're a fan of Luke Gromand, obviously you should place a lot of heavy weight on that recommendation. Just definitely, I, Peter, just released a video yesterday with Luke and, and Darius Dale. So it was sort of a bit of a, I won't call it an debate between the two, but a

58:13panel exploration on a lot of key macro issues. Total barn burner, over 100,000 views on YouTube in its first 24 hours. Sure. Yeah. Thing is just, it's just a monster right now out there. And it's, it's well deserved. It's a fantastic discussion. But I, I did just want to, I will, I will make, no, I'll make sure to listen because I'm, they have very different perspectives on things. You know what they agree a lot more than you think. It was really interesting. They didn't agree on everything. And it was very, you know, very, I think, valuable to hear them sort of parse where they split from each other's outlooks. But they had a lot more in common than most people imagine. But it is just so many, like, Luke fans on the channel at the moment in the wake of that. I just wanted to make sure I connected the dot between Luke and you. Right. All right here. So, again, I want to kind of get to maybe lightning round on, on your thoughts on a couple of issues, like, Sure. Brown and AI and energy in general and anything else you want to talk about there.

59:15But real quick, I want to ask you another sort of unfair question. I asked this of Michael Everett. I don't know if you know him, but he's the head of Geostrategy at Ravobank and he has been, he had been predicting the shift back to declobalization, reshoring, you know, basically he, he said it's a return to Mercantilism, which he says is sort of way the world has worked for centuries. And this brief air of declobalization, or globalization that we kind of grew up in was the historical elaboration and had said, look, it's not going to last long and it seems to definitely be ending here. But since he kind of has this 30,000-foot view of the world and in geopolitics and geostrategy, I always like to ask him and I talk to him, okay, you are sitting down at the game board for the game of risk. You play that when you were a kid? Of course. Of course. Okay, so Peter, you get to choose where you start. You get to pick a country that if you're looking at,

1:00:19you know, prospects for, we'll say the rest of the game, which we'll say is the rest of our lives, right, the next hopefully 40-plus years. Which country would you pick? Chronic Migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more, can make me feel like a spectator in my own life. Botox, on a botulinum toxin A, prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It's the number one prescribed branded chronic migraine preventive treatment. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. Alerture doctor right away is difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue, and headache. Alerture reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms, and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS Lugeric's disease, Myastthenia Gravis, or Lambert Eaton Syndrome, and medications, including Botulinum toxins,

1:01:21as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. Why wait? Ask your doctor, visit BotoxCronicMigraine.com or call 1-800-44 Botox to learn more. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability varies 18 plus. Oh, I mean China. You picked and the reason, yeah, the reason I picked China is I'm, and again, maybe this is just my own, my age speaking here, but I'm about physical, not financial, not paper, meaning for those who have not read the book, all candidates book on the rise and fall of great powers, for me is seminal work.

1:02:24And if you go back through history, and again, my basis of my thinking of where the world is today, as I mentioned on our previous podcast, is very early 20th century, and the competition between the UK and Germany prior to World War I. And at that point in time, for me, one of the key drivers was after Germany had sort of become a country, if you will, under Bismarck. What you basically had was this massive high growth manufacturing base out of Germany. And the UK at the time, because they had all the colonies, the country itself had really vacated the entire manufacturing ecosystem. Yeah, they'd act short, everything. Correct. And you know, when it came to the need to be able to fight a war, that was where the UK had no choice but to go to the United States to say, look, we need your help, because they weren't, I mean, the United States at the time was the world's

1:03:28global manufacturing base. So when I look at the game of risk today, you know, I was talking at the very beginning about Mayhann versus McKinder. Again, the United States can only play the Mayhann card because they don't have access to the Eurasian language. Yeah. Right. China has both. China, I think what's underappreciated is China ethnically speaking is for the most part, well for basically, is a single ethnic group, the Han Chinese. There are some minorities, but you don't have the degree of sort of political infighting that can be based off of ethnic or religious or these sorts of variables that can cause strife internally. Right. This is not the same in China. I don't know if you're watching America, but our melting pot isn't doing a great job of melting these days. No, and I remember even when I was growing up, the melting pot got changed into a salad bowl,

1:04:29meaning that you have an apple or you have a tomato as a tomato and olive as an olive, a piece of cheese. It was like, we were all together, but we were different. And I was like, I don't think that's how it's supposed to work. But again, that's just one man's opinion. So China has ethnic unity, they've got landmass access, they can go both deep water. And by the way, this is the reason why China's been so aggressive in the South China Sea because from a accessing blue water, the United States has China hemmed off on the east. Right. And it's the reason why Taiwan is such a big issue. I mean, Taiwan is, again, we have to protect democracy. Okay, it sounds good. People want to rally around it. It's about being able to protect what's called the first island chain. But China has the ability with manufacturing. They have right now a loose collection of like-minded nations. I don't know how long it's going to last. I mean, you could have Russia and China flare up again. They historically don't have the best relationship.

1:05:31Yeah. So the whole concept right now is the enemy of my enemy is my friend type of thinking. That may not hold a little long term. But I do believe if you look at where all the pieces are right now, China for me is the country that has the most boxes checked to be able to both be resilient and grow in my lifetime. Okay. And it's always very helpful to hear everybody's perspective that I asked that question too. And I actually like it when people are picking different countries because it really helps us understand a new country better and maybe look at our set of advantages in a different light. And maybe some of them aren't quite the advantages we think they are. A quick question on the populace of China. So you mentioned there's a fair amount of ethnic homogeneity there. I'm just curious,

1:06:31kind of man on the street these days or man in the field across China. China is a command and control economy. Westerners, we keep in mind images of like Tiananmen Square, things like this, where uprise and gets just brutally crushed. Right. Man on the street there is there a certain amount of national pride and I'm on board and I'm willing to share and sacrifice. If my government tells me it's the right thing to do or is it a, you know, I'm living in oppression, I give my right arm to be able to cross a border here with my family. For the most part, people are happy with their lot in life. I mean, I'm not, I think there's not this, this ecstatic excitement and energy that was pervasive back in the early arts. Because again, the economy has shifted and a lot of people are sitting on, they haven't lost money on their property, but the property isn't valued

1:07:37as high as it was before. So in terms of paper gains, those paper gains have turned not into paper losses, but paper gains that are lower than they were before. And that's going to have an impact on people's mindset. It's one of the primary reasons why household spending has been depressed. Maybe not depressed, but soft, but the better part of the last five years. But overall, correct. But overall, I mean, everybody that I'm talking to and again, it's not just here in Shanghai, but if you go to other different cities, I think one of the most interesting developments has been pre-COVID. The, what I call the gauntlet was, you know, you would go to Beijing, you would go to Shanghai, you would go to Hong Kong, those were sort of the big cities. That's where things were happened. Today, the economic sort of energy, if you call it, want to call it that, has diffused into these large second tier cities. Hangzhou, which is where a lot of the AI companies are.

1:08:42Xian. Chongqing is the big one, then you've got Shen Zhen down south. So that's been, I think, what's been more interesting to watch because you used to have individuals from those cities come into the big three and find work and what have you. A lot of them have now gone back home and are now building their own businesses or working for different companies that are setting up there. In terms of nationalism, there's only one, I would say, one subject where nationalism is really significant in that's Taiwan, a full stop. You know, that is a red line, not just for the party and the government, but for every Chinese person. And they're thinking that's ours. That's just correct. And but beyond that, no, people just want to be able to get on with what they're doing day in and day out. Have enough money to go out, have a good time, drink, be with friends,

1:09:43your normal life experience. And that's what you see when you walk around the streets. It's what I love about China from the stories I hear from the US. There's no drama here. People aren't getting in your face. There's no, people are just by and large getting on with their day. All right. Oh, I hate to say it being an American here in the US. We got a lot of drama, right? We definitely have drama overload. And I don't necessarily see that improving anytime soon. But to the spirit of my question, again, as Americans, oh, China, there are human rights abuser. It's a communist dictatorship. The average guy from your perspective is not living in fear, is not actively feeling like I'm being oppressed by a jackbooted government. They're just living life like regular people. Right. And I think one of the funniest anecdotes, I can't remember if I mentioned this to you, but over the course of the last couple of years, there was this

1:10:45viral video going around from Jordan Peterson, where he was talking about, oh, well, if you look at China, you're on the, so you've got a social credit score and you've got all these cameras. And if you jaywalk, they're going to take your picture and they're going to find you and they're going to take money out of your bank account and so on and so forth. And as you can imagine, that video got sent to me more times than I can recall. And I said, okay, number one, there's no social credit I don't know where this came up from, but there isn't. And you certainly are not getting fined for jaywalking or anything else. So all of the stories that come out, look, look, they make for great engagement, they make for great thumbnails on YouTube clips and all this kind of stuff. I mean, I'm laughing with this professor, John guy that's making the wraps. Like, who's who's this guy? He seems to be on every podcast make, I don't know, there's for me,

1:11:48there's something off about that guy. But the average Chinese here, no, it's no one's concerned about it. You even mentioned is someone going to knock on my door and drag. I can talk to you about any, I can talk to you about anything. Okay, and that's great. I think that that's actually, I mean, that's great periods. And certainly don't wonder you're putting your rescue of getting in prison. But I think that there's a fair amount of Westerners that feel like the belief that you can't really publicly say anything negative about the government or else you're going to get thrown into jail or prison. You're basically saying don't your experience. Don't get me wrong. Don't get me wrong. If you're going to amplify and do something on social media and criticize the government or say, those will get censored and you may get visited by what's called the public security bureau. Now, are you going to get thrown in jail? I've known people that have made comments on social media here where their social media accounts been closed, but they didn't get thrown in jail and their

1:12:51social media account was opened after 30 days. So, you know, there is there is a certain line that people know they shouldn't really cross. So you could say that's where some of the self-sensorship, if you will, based upon this being authoritarian dictatorship, if you want to call it that. So I'm not here to say everything is you can go around saying anything you want. Of course not. But at the same time, if you're out having dinner and you're having a conversation about politics in China, that's fine. You know, people are going to be, I've been in more dinners than I can count where people are having very animated conversations about what's going on in the government. So that happens, but there's a known, if you will, self-sensorship that does go on. Okay, but two things. When it sounds like it's totally okay to say something like you said here, which is like, hey, China's got a debt problem. It's going to have to figure out how to deal with it. Yeah. That's not going to necessarily get the authorities knocking on your new door. And if one dies, you're saying the penalty is pretty much a timeout. It's not, that's something,

1:13:55you know, really, really scary like spending time with you. Yeah, I mean, again, my favorite quick anecdote is I was speaking, we have a client. Their regional headquarters are in Hong Kong. Hey, Peter, can you talk to our people in New York? Sure. We do a Zoom call. And we're chatting away. And one of the people on the Zoom call from New York is like, well, Peter, how safe is it there? And this is how oblivious I was to the question. I said, oh, Shanghai's great. You know, you get here. Let's say you're jet lagged. You can go out, walk on the street. You know, you can go get a bowl of noodles, three o'clock in the morning. It's super safe. You know, you don't have to worry about anything. And then as I finished my answer, there's this dead silence. And someone says, well, I don't think you understand the question. We're wondering if we engage with certain people in China. Are we at risk of, you know, being taken in by the authorities? Yeah, it disappeared. Yeah. Right. And then I made my second mistake, which is I then burst out laughing on the Zoom.

1:15:00Because I was like, I said to them, I said, guys, I said, look, I'm all for risk management. I understand that risk management is something that you need to be mindful. But this is overkill. Like, you know, we have to come in with our burner phones. We can't bring company laptops. And my response, and I've said this time and time again, is, I promise you, you're not that important. You just are not that important. It's literally thinking of that in my brain. Okay. So all right. Well, then hopefully you're opening some eyes here. And helping people just to better understand the lived experience today in China. If we can get, if we get the lightning round, so I'm going to ask you lightning round in a couple of topics. And then I'm going to close by just asking you, what if any sort of investment themes are you seeing come out of, you know, what's going on right now from the China side? Let's start with Iran and oil. So China was Iran's biggest, you know, client for oil. Probably still is. Probably, probably intends to be going forward.

1:16:02So, you know, China, as you said, invested in creating the world's biggest oil stock piles by far. And that's been getting them through the high oil prices that we're having right now. It seems that China, well, people have speculated that look at some point, China's going to have to really get involved here and start applying a lot of pressure one way or the other because they're going to need to start importing oil again. And I have heard and read of light that she has been making overtures to say, hey guys, you know, is there a way we can kind of wrap this up soon? How much pressure do you think China is feeling right now with oil and with anything else in regards to the U.S. Iran conflict? Chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more, can make me feel like a spectator in my own life. Botox, on a botchaline,

1:17:04on a botox in A, prevents headaches and adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It's the number one prescribed branded chronic migraine preventive Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. Alerture doctor right away is difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue and headache. Alerture reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS Lugeric's disease, myasthenia, gravis or Lambert Eaton syndrome and medications, including botchaline amtoxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. Why wait? Ask your doctor, visit Botox Chronic Migraine.com or call 1-800-44 Botox to learn more. This episode is brought to you by Palm Olive. Family time isn't just the big moments. It's weeknight dinners, sitting around the table, everyone talking all at once. So when the

1:18:06plates are empty and the sink is full, use Palm Olive Ultra. Palm Olive's most powerful formula removes up to 99.9% of grease, leaving your dishes sparkling clean, and the new convenient pump makes cleaning even easier, so you can spend less time tackling dishes and more time together. Shop now at Palm Olive.com Well, the first thing I'll say is one thing that China really works to addresses, they do not like uncertainty in any form, and this is uncertainty. Ukraine is uncertain. So there is always, in my opinion, back-channeling going on between various parties. You will see what China will say publicly, and that is for face. They're going to always have certain positions, but then there are things that they do behind the scenes. And the minute that we saw many months ago, that Islamabad and Pakistan were going to be the

1:19:07sort of mediators for some sort of... In the office we laughed and were like, okay, that is China's big giant thumb on the scale because they're the most important sort of trading partner. So the Chinese and the Beijing leadership would most certainly like to see a resolution of the Iranian conflict. And by that resolution they mean that let's Iranian oil flow to them again. Correct. There is that, but I do believe that Beijing would would rather see the Mullahs stay in power, to see a change in leadership. And maybe a conversation for another day, but I would recommend to people look into what the Chinese did in the years, just after, sort of the Iraq war 20 years ago. The reason I say that is China moved in aggressively, and today China effectively controls,

1:20:08or at least dominates the petroleum infrastructure throughout Iraq. And they were able to do that through various means. So if the Iranians are able to hold on, and the Mullahs are able to hold on to power, you're talking about two of the world's oldest, most powerful civilizations, the Chinese and the Persians. And that is a very potent cocktail. And I think it's one of the reasons why the Trump administration is probably being a lot more reluctant to not push this as far as they can go, because if China is able to get in and replicate what they did with Iraq in Iran, because what are the Mullahs going to want? They're going to want a turnkey to allow for regime stability. And there's no group in the world that's got a turnkey for regime stability than Beijing. So they can import that whole thing. So, yes, Beijing would love to see this resolved as quickly as possible, as long as the current government

1:21:13in Iran is going to stay clean. Okay. And just to make sure I understood you quickly, not just because they like certainty, and they would like the oil to start flowing, but they want to get all that basically infrastructure rebuilding contracts, and then position themselves in Iran the way that they have in Iraq. And if you think about it and take it to the next step, that basically means that China pretty significantly controls the region without having shot a single, without a shot fired. Okay. Yep. Really interesting. Okay. Let's talk about energy, and as it relates to AI. So we can start with other one first. You did a good job at the beginning of the conversation saying that China in its goals for resiliency has said, look, I don't care what color the cat is. I just want to have I just want to have a ton of electrons. I want to have a

1:22:15lot of electrical generating capacity. And I'm sure you've seen the same charts that I've shown here times in the past. You know, right now comparing China's electrical production capacity to the US, it's it's almost comparing a horizontal line to a vertical line with China being the vertical line. Yeah. And they currently right now have something like three times the capacity that we do. Now the US has kind of gotten a memo. There's a big scramble here. It's going to take a long time for us to bend the curve upwards. I'm sure China realizes that. So, but they've got a big advantage right now on electrical production capacity. I don't get the sense they're going to slow down at all, but you tell me. The AI race to me seems the world powers have said, hey, look, we think this is kind of a winner takes all race just like the nuclear arms race was. And a key ingredient to winning that race is going to have, you know, he was the greatest access to the

1:23:15most plentiful cheapest electrons. And I'm sure China feels the same way. It's interesting because we're kind of beating them on compute. We're building a heck of a lot more data centers than we, but on the energy side, they're building the heck a lot more nuclear reactors than we. So, it's going to be kind of interesting. I'm just curious, can you kind of compare and contrast the two approaches and and then use that answer as a segue into AI where the countries have very different strategies, right? We're trying to win on kind of brute force compute. We want the the most high-powered chips and China saying we're not going to win that game. So, we basically want to have the best software that does the same job with a lot less compute. Right. So, the energy size is straightforward and pretty quick. They're going to continue to do what they've been doing here for the decades. They're going to they're going to focus on coal, petroleum and alternative energy. But I believe the bias now is more on creating what is referred to

1:24:21to these these days as an electric state, meaning getting as much of their energy done through alternatives renewables and the like. So, I think China is subject, but does that also mean a weaning dependence on fossil fuels? So, yes, this is the short answer. And I do believe that China already has reduced a significant amount of their demand for imported oil just because of the electrification, especially with autos, their demand. So, when you saw that decline in imports, there was a lot of commentary that, oh, this must be demand destruction, the economies in far were shaped. I haven't seen any demand destruction. Let's put it that way. But at the same time, the question was, did they need that much oil they were importing to begin with? Right. Or were they doing that for stockpiling purposes? And now they're moving closer to what is a more steady state in terms of demand? Yeah, certainly.

1:25:24But I'm curious if this analogy rings true to you. It's in my mind, I'm seeing the return of the Jedi, where they're talking about rebuilding the Death Star. And then all of a sudden, they reveal that we're not rebuilding it. This thing's fully operational. And it's sort of like, oh, the Chinese economy wants to electrify, but whatever, but now we've cut up your oil flow. And they're like, oh, no problem. We're already fully operational. I look up to exact. Right. Right. Look, I don't, I think they have made significant progress on that front, but I mean, they still need oil. I mean, just the, you can't, I mean, you can't run a lot of these, these manufacturing facilities, these production facilities on electrification. They still need fossil fuels. So there will always be a need. The question really becomes, is it 12 million barrels a day that they need? Is it four million? Or is it somewhere in between? My guess is it's probably lower than what it was in the past, but not the four million that we saw back in

1:26:27June. Got it. But it sounds like whatever it is, you see that number going down as the years progressed as they continue to electrify. Absolutely. Okay. Yeah. I mean, just on nuclear power, I think there's something like 30 nuclear power stations that are under construction at the moment. So compared to zero. Exactly. So I think it's just again, it's monitoring and watching the direction. It's always for me the direction of travel that matters, rather than a specific, and again, because we live in this world of sort of instant gratification and social media and content creation, it's always what is it today that we need to talk about? And my objective is to try to get people to sort of take a step back. It's the reason why I wrote that, that piece about the cap theory, right? Like, I believe in that. I said, look, I said, I can sit here and talk about bricks or AI, but let me try to give you something a bit more interesting. More valuable. Yeah. So that's that's always been my my approach to that. Okay. So that was the energy side. Let's get to AI briefly here.

1:27:30What do you want to say about China and its its position in the AI race right now? Well, you made the comment, which is, you know, compute China needs compute. And right now going back to the very beginning, the white cat black cat, China is getting compute from indigenous chips, which are not great. But if you throw enough at them, it'll do something. They're smuggling or as the Americans like to say, they have secondary sources of Nvidia chips and micron and whatever else they need. And then third, the other one that they're, they're using is they're accessing data centers for compute purposes in places like Malaysia, Singapore and elsewhere. So they're finding ways to meet their compute needs, but their compute needs are nowhere near what they're going to need, which is why you're seeing so much focus on Huawei and CMXT and others, more threads,

1:28:30smaller companies here that are being a lot of money's being thrown at them by local governments to be able to expand capacity. So that's going to be for the Chinese, the limiting factor. But as we have been able to see from things like Kimi K3 and deep sea V4, they're still producing pretty decent results. And because, and this has always been the shock to me, because they're open source, you know, once the open weights get released, anybody in the world can use it. They can tweak it. They can, you know, I look at open AI and anthropic and these are world gardens. And I may have said this on my last appearance with you. For me, this is very reminiscent to Steve Case's business model at AOL way back in the day, which was like America online was this wall garden to access the internet. And then everybody realized, well, wait a minute, we have the whole internet. Let's just go with the whole internet. Why do we need your wall wall garden? That's the kind of framing. But

1:29:35look, the Chinese government, of course, is going to put in guardrails. And they're looking right now at what's going on with the United States with, oh, we need to, to slow down and we need to be more cautious on safety. I'm in this regard as cynic. I think these companies have recognized that there's a lot more competition and they're looking for regulatory capture. Right. Right. But the Chinese have come back and said, look, we're more than happy to look at safety. Let's do it on a global scale with a multilateral body. The United States has this thing called Pax Silica. And China has this thing called the World AI Cooperation Organization. Unfortunately, the acronym is Waco. But you know, there are two different competing models. But what China has already been able to do is they've taken their models and it's already going through Brazil, Africa, all the countries that they have defused their models globally. They have

1:30:42the market share. And you know, every time the United States decides that they want to, for whatever reason, pull back, I think it's a disservice. I don't get it. Okay. So in one century making the VHS versus Baytomax argument for AI that China's just getting bullied by more and more of the world. Right. You know, it's interesting. I don't know how long this is going to last for. And I do want to note the irony that it is the communist dictatorship, if you will, that is pursuing the open source model. And it is the, you know, world's beacon of free markets that is pursuing the Wall of Gardens model that definitely seems to be a direct disconnect. But what we're hearing inside of America right now, at least, is that American companies are saying, look, the cost to compute is rising all the time. And I'm finding that, yeah, for certain things that kind of, they're really heavy lifting. Yeah, I'm going to use the frontier models. But for the

1:31:4880 to 90% of stuff, that's just kind of general road to lower lift. I can use these free Chinese models just fine. They do the job just fine. Right. So, you know, in many ways that's taking the American demand and shifting it over to them, anyways, which of course may put a heavier weight on their needs for compute. But as you were saying earlier, you know, China has increasingly been taking these industries that people initially said, well, they will never, they'll never be a leader in that industry. And they're kind of picking them off one by one for something like this. That's such a big national priority. And I've got all these engineers. And even if, as you said, some of them are having trouble finding a job, just say, look, all these guys just we cram them in a mine, some mineshaft somewhere and they do nothing. But, you know, try to break the next innovation in our domestic chips. Yep. And that's what we're seeing playing out. I mean, there has been a real, for me, obvious ramp up in being able to create an alternative tech stat.

1:32:50And Jensen Wong was not wrong when he said, if we don't engage with China, then we're going to create a bifurcated tech stack. Yeah. I still look, look, I'm of the mind where I'm glad the United States did not allow for mass exporting of chips to China. China already, back in 2018, China made it its mission to become extremely resilient and away from the US tech stack. If we had sent the chips to them, they would have just gotten there faster. They're still, they're still right now struggling to reach that degree of computing they need. Okay. All right. So I'm going to start laying in the play now and get to the investment team question. But before I ask you that one, is there anything else that's burning really broadly on your radar that I just haven't thought to ask you about yet that's worth talking about now versus a future interview with them? I mean, there's a thousand things. But I think for right now, I mean, one of the, one of the challenges that I face is there's just so much to be able to share. And it can, it can sometimes feel like drinking from a fire hose because

1:33:55you use, and again, I appreciate the feedbacks. Like you use and come in and say, okay, you you seem very favorable on China. And I'll push comes to shove. I will say that I am favorable, you dispose of China because of what I'm been seeing, but I'm taking those messages and I'm trying to desperately implore upon the American, especially the Washington establishment, you need to do better. So my only piece of advice or commentary right now would be if you have the ability to get on a plane and come here and see for yourself, because you can listen to me or you can listen to your other guests and they'll all have different opinions. Come to China, get on a high speed rail, you know, use the phones. It's just, it's a crazily, crazy, convenient place to be, very safe. And I think, and the people are great. Again, I'm biased here, but I just risk more people would come and visit China. And that's still not not happening as much as I would hope it would be.

1:34:58Well, especially decision maker. Peter, let me offer this. So I've stepped a barely step foot on China. And this was back in 1994. And I think I was just in a little fishing bill, was your two on the mainland opposite of Hong Kong. So that's my only boots on the ground experience with China. Super old, super data, data, super not relevant to the modern world. So I would like to try to get over there at some point in the next couple of years. If I do, I'll coordinate through you and maybe what we'll do is we'll record an interview on the ground out there, but maybe even a to the extent that it's allowed. And it sounds like maybe it is. We walk around the streets, we do a little filming and just sort of show the world what it's like through a newbie traveler, like myself out there. Well, I am certainly not going anywhere. So we would welcome, I would welcome you to come and hang out. And yeah, you can walk around and say, video's no problem. Okay, great. No, I mean, it just, I'm all for better understanding. You know, the major peoples and cultures that

1:35:59we are going to have to be working with, competing with, collaborating with, going forward, right? And I think that it doesn't really matter what the answer is, as long as it's the truthful one, and it can help us make more informed decisions. That's really kind of a mission to this channel. What's my goal? That's my goal as well. Okay. When question that did enter my mind before I get to the investment themes, and I'm sure we could do a whole interview on it, but I'll just take your 60,000 foot view answer. Okay. What in your, from your sense right now is the relationship like between President Xi and President Trump? This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it, ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability, very 18 plus. This episode is brought to you by Palm Olive.

1:37:02Family time isn't just the big moments. It's weeknight dinners, sitting around the table, everyone talking all at once. So when the plates are empty and the sink is full, use Palm Olive Ultra. Palm Olive's most powerful formula removes up to 99.9% of grease, leaving your dishes sparkling clean. And the new convenient pump makes cleaning even easier so you can spend less time tackling dishes and more time together. Shop now at Palm Olive.com. Ah, that is the question I'm getting because of the upcoming summit. So right now, the Chinese are looking at the Trump administration from what I can tell, from my interactions, as a lame duck. When you and I had spoke six months ago, I believe I made the comment that there was the possibility that there would be this thing called a fourth communique, where the United States and China could come together and so called divvy up the world. That's clearly off the table now. I think you and I spoke just after the start of the Iranian conflict.

1:38:05So there is a recognition as I see it in Beijing that the Trump administration has gotten itself into a peck of trouble on the global stage. They are, as is everybody, watching sovereign yields across the entire G7 right now. I find it interesting that I think it was Donald Trump himself who said that America should have the lowest interest rates because we are the greatest economy in the world. By that measure, China's the greatest economy in the world. I say this half jokingly. Because right now China has the lowest rates and there's numerous countries that are companies and countries that are coming here that are raising money in, run, and be, through various platforms that are open to capital formation. So there's a lame duck element to it. When Xi Jinping goes to the United States, I give him credit. He's going into the Vipronest. He's going into Washington, DC. I think the last time Xi Jinping was in DC was 15, no, over 10 years ago. He's traveled

1:39:12to the States, but not to Washington. Yeah, he was in San Francisco like a year and a half ago, right? Or two years ago? Right. And he was in Marlago in 2017. So what is going to come out of this? My expectations are quite low. I would love to see some, like maybe a battery manufacturer being set up in China and so forth. But we have to be, I think, realistic here. There is really no one topic in Washington that has the most bipartisan consensus than China bad. Republicans and Democrats alike, you know, we don't want this. We don't want that. We need to contain hence the bipartisan. So I think it's right. So I genuinely think that it's going to go through. It's going to be a lot of, I think, back channeling. What I would pay closer attention to though is that in, I believe it's in November, there's going to be the annual APEC summit, which is going to take place in China this year in Shen Zhen, which is going to be fascinating. World leaders from

1:40:14the APEC nations will all descend on this city. And you may have the possibility of a Xi, Trump, and Putin sort of pot-stam moment, y'all to moment, where they sit down and maybe come up with some sort of, I don't know, armistice, whatever. So there's a lot that's going to happen over the course of the next four months. It's going to be a manic run to the end of the year. But in terms of the overall relationship, Beijing is looking and saying, we just need to plan until 2028 and see where things go. Yeah, yeah. It sounds like at the core of it, you're saying, they're in now in outlast mode, which is, we'll be nice. Correct. We'll be polite, but we'll basically just be letting the clock run out and you're gone in 2028. And maybe it's entirely, you know, completely different administration, right? Which, it's anybody's calling that one right now. I'm sure. Very sure. So here at the end, what investing themes, if any, kind of come out of your

1:41:17work here, is you, as you look across the landscape of China and its interactions with the rest of the world? Again, I'm a physical guy, meaning, again, I'm not really in the space of making recommendations for investments and whatnot. And this may seem somewhat an ironic, but like, I don't necessarily go out of my way to recommend you should have China exposure. I think people, you know, I think a small degree of exposure is appropriate like with anything. It is the world's second largest economy. But the Chinese here, the market cap is not a motivating factor. Market share is the Chinese are about building competitive ecosystems. If we have a market cap of 100 billion or 10 billion, we don't need a trillion dollar company. We're fine if we're where we are. But there's some interesting companies here. But again, people who are interested, you know, a China ETF is something you could look at. But

1:42:21there's a lot of them and they're all different. But look, I think gold, I'm a fan of gold. I think with China, we didn't get to it. But I think people need to see what China's doing with the gold space. They are. Can we just have our next one be all about that? There would be a kind of interest here in this audience. Yeah, I can speak for hours on end. And when we get to the end, when we talk about how people can reach me, I've got something that I think people will find interesting. But no, I think China is building an alternative, not a substitute, but an alternative to the US dollar system as a reserve asset. And it's predominantly based on gold. Not the reserve currency. The US dollar will remain the reserve currency. But the reserve asset where nations will take Remembe surpluses, that's going to be cycled into gold. And we can see China continues to publicly announce how much gold they're pulling in month after month. And it's accelerated over

1:43:22the last six months or so. And if you take the over under on that number, on that the government reported number, what would you take? All I would say is this. I don't know. I would just say direction of travel is what matters. Meaning let's say it's under. Why would they announce how much they're doing? But if it's over, which a lot of people are speculating, that's fine. But the direction of travel is China has made it very clear in their public filings. We are buying gold and we're buying more gold every month and more gold for following. That for me is the thing. All right. So to summarize, big fan of gold, you think some China exposure is prudent. And you said you're a real things guy says it just means commodities. In general, you sort of bullish on commodities because of the all the demand. And again, that's what China's been buying. I mean, China's been buying iron ore, petroleum, copper, you name it, phosphate. China uses its foreign

1:44:24currency reserves and buys real things. I mean, that's how they're diversifying away out of the US dollar system. I don't know if you know this, but are they are all those things they're buying just making their way into the manufacturing cycle? Or are they building stock piles of these essential commodities the same way they hit a big SBR for oil? The short answer is yes. They're doing both. They're doing both. Okay, great. Peter, we've got a way over time here. I think this is almost a hundred an hour and 40 minutes. But that's the sign of a fantastic discussion because it just went by like that and learned to learn to tongue. Very much appreciate your mission as I believe the viewers of this channel do too in terms of just demystifying all that's going on there for us. And it's so valuable to get it from a gentleman who's not only lived inside the country for three decades, but has a firm that basically writes as much analysis as you do to help

1:45:25people understand what's going on there. So I just want to share how much I appreciate you coming on and being so generous with your full scope of your insights there. Of course. Again, I appreciate the opportunity to be able to come on and share with you at least if nothing else one man's point of you. Okay. Well, it's one very important point of view. Okay, so now to the closing question. For folks that would like to follow you and your work in between now and the next time you come on this channel, where should they go? Well, I do dabble on Substack. You don't need a subscription. It's something pops into my head and I don't do it that often. Maybe a couple times a month. So you can go on Substack. Just search my name. But what I would for those who are interested, if you go to our website, which is zhypenben.com. On the front page, you'll find a very long essay that I wrote back in January. And it's essentially an essay that's called How Did We Get Here? That looks at

1:46:26how is it that the rivalry between the US and China landed at this point? And what you'll find, and again, and I apologize. It's a very long essay. It's like 50 pages. But for those who really want to see what the storyline is between 1996 and today, there was a path. And unfortunately, a lot of forced errors as it were by American policy makers during the so-called unipolar moment. So for those who are interested in our history junkies, I think you'll appreciate it. So you can just go on our website and you'll find it there right on the front page, homepage. Okay, great. And Peter, when I edit this, as usual, I'll put up the links to your Substack and your website right there on the screens. If folks know where to go, folks, the links will also be in the description below this video. All right, well, in closing, please join me in thanking Peter for giving us so much of his time by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below. It's one of those little bell icon right next

1:47:26to it. And if you'd like to potentially take action in your portfolio and anything that Peter mentioned here today, highly recommend that most of the people watching this video get help doing that from a good professional financial advisor. And importantly, one that takes into account the macro themes that Peter and I discussed here. If you've got a good one, is doing that for you? Great. Don't stick with them. Don't mess with success. But if you don't have one or you'd like a second opinion from one that thoughtful money thinks is good, then consider scheduling a free consultation with one of the financial advisory firms that we endorse here at Thalphal Money. These are the firms you see with me on this channel weekend and week out. So to set up one of those private personal and totally free consultations, just felt the very short form at thoughtful money.com only takes you a couple seconds. As mentioned, these consultations are totally free. There's no commitments involved. It's just a service these firms offer to be as helpful to as many investors like you as they can. Alas, reminder two, the thoughtful money fall online conference is coming up like a freight train

1:48:29at this point. Reminder it's going to take place on Saturday, October 17th. Don't worry if you can't watch live. Everybody who registers will get sent replay videos of the entire conference. I've just announced that Michael Everey will be joining us for this to give a geostrategic perspective to the conference. So building in many ways on what Peter and I have just talked about here. So if you haven't yet already done so, go to thoughtful money.com slash conference. You can register there. You can also learn all the details about the conference. But I want to make sure that everybody who is thinking about going goes and registers now basically because I want you to get the early bird price discount while it's still being offered. And as a reminder, if you're a premium subscriber to our I thought for many newsletter, you get a code that gives you an additional $50 off of that low early bird price discount and to sign up for the newsletter if you haven't already and get that 50% off. Just go to thoughtful money.com slash newsletter. Peter, I can't thank you enough.

1:49:30This has been such a great enlightening conversation. You do a great job, I think on your mission of demystifying what's going on there for the general audience and certainly for this one. I really look forward to having you back on again sooner versus later. And again, just want to thank you for everything that you do. My pleasure, Adam. And like I said, I'm not going anywhere. You know where to find me. So anytime you want to have a conversation, just let me know. All right, sounds wonderful. Thanks so much again, Peter and everybody else. Thanks so much for watching. It's football season and you can now get almost anything you need for game day, delivered with Uber Eats. What do we mean by almost? You can't get a running back delivered, but you can get baby back ribs delivered. A strong defense, no, a strong deodorant. Yes.

1:50:31The six pack of abs. No, six pack of beer. Yes. Get almost, almost anything for game day, delivered with Uber Eats. Official on demand food delivery partner of the NFL order now. Alcohol 21 plus in Inselect cities, product availability varies by region, see app for details. For a limited time, you can get a big Mac meal for just $8. That's a burger, fries, and a drink. They don't call it an extra value meal for nothing. Get a big Mac meal only at McDonald's. Price and participation may vary. Promotion pricing may be lower than meal pricing.