The Top 10 Things We're Thinking About in US Equities Heading Into 2024

We've updated our thoughts on the 2024 outlook for the US equity market, focusing on the top 10 things we’re thinking about as the new year gets underway. The biggest things you need to know: First, in December we became concerned about the possibility of a near-term pullback in the US equity market given deterioration in our sentiment work, and that remains the case today. Second, despite these near-term concerns, we remain constructive on the S&P 500 for the full year and recently revised up our YE 2024 S&P 500 price target to 5,150 from 5,000. Third, we see a mix of tailwinds and headwinds for US equities in the year ahead. Tailwinds include valuations that can stay higher than many investors realize. Headwinds include highly bullish sentiment, expectations for a sluggish economy, and uncertainty around the 2024 Presidential election. Fourth, we continue to see a number of problems for the Large Cap Growth trade and we give an edge to Value and Small Caps in the year ahead. But for a rotation into Value and Small Caps to be sustainable, US economic expectations need to improve.