The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1488 – 2026 Starting Pitcher Preview Pt. 6

0:00Hello and welcome to episode 1488 of The Sleeper in the Bosset is Friday, March 20th. I'm your host, Paul Sporr. Join this afternoon by Joe Arrico and Justin Mason, gentlemen. Good day. What's going on, fellas? We are less than a week away from baseball. That's correct. We were a week yesterday. It's so close. Now, don't we have like a one-off game on? Is it giant, giant Yankees, baby Wednesday night? So we were, we were even closer than a week yesterday when we said that, Justin, technically. So yeah, I mean, it's here, folks. And we have the big draft weekend coming up, talked a little bit about yesterday, Joe. You know, we got our big Sunday draft that we're going to be doing. We'll all be together on Justin's stream on YouTube. I have my main event on Saturday and come check that out on Twitch.

1:02We're going to get into our final run of pictures and we're going to go through a ton. Obviously, if you see this list, if you're looking at the rundown somewhere, we can't cover all of them. There's just no way, but we're going to go through covers many as we can't. I got to be honest, I don't even know if we're going to timestamp it. I'm sorry, folks, on this one, I think since we're going to just be bouncing around like within these tier groupings, maybe I can do that. I can I can timestamp the tier grouping because people on me bounce around. I'm going to ask Joe and Justin, who they like from this group and they might not go in the order we got. So that's what I'll do. We'll get into it right now. We got good last year. That one's pretty straightforward. Guys, who were good last year? What's up this year? Post hype, again, pretty straightforward. They've had hype before and it's kind of building back. And are we buying into it prospects? I did cheat here. I don't know if Rocky is technically still a prospect. Okay. And I know that like he would be he would be traditional. Like he was on traditional lists last year because he came over the the quote unquote normal route. He didn't come over in that special route where he's been, you know, where he's not on prospect list.

2:04But anyway, yeah, he pitched enough last year to be off it. But I put him there because I didn't have a better category for him. And we're all just going to say we don't like him anyway. And then we got the veterans. Another very self-explanatory category. All these are really injured guys. They're currently hurt or nursing back from injury. In the case of Braxton Garrett, I don't think he's actually actively hurt right now. But he was sent out just before the show started. So we're dealing with him as somebody coming back. And then bounce back, guys, who were good recently. Some as recently as two years ago. Others maybe a little bit further back. And then a group of KBOers at the end for guys all with a little bit of intrigue. So I want to get your thoughts there, even though it's all the way at the end. Let's start with the guys who were good last year. That's going to be Ryan Nelson, Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, Chad Patrick, Noah Cameron, AC Myes, Will Warren, Jacob Blatz, Shane Smith, Simeon Woodridge, you're sitting at least in the second half. And then Justin Robleski. And I put River Ryan here. He was not good last year and pitch last year. But I tagged him on with Robleski just because he didn't have a better category for him and this was easiest. So Joe, let's start with you. Your favorite off rip here. Who's somebody in this category that you're consistently going for?

3:07Well, I promise I'm not just taking the name at the top of the sheet, but Ryan Nelson. I've fallen in love with Ryan Nelson and I think he's the best starting pitcher that the Diamondbacks have at this point. He was really good last year. The surface and below the surface, 3.39 ERA, 3.73 FIP. The Sierra was a little bit higher at 407, that's fine. But a 15% strike up minus walk rate is solid, a 107 whip, really good. And the stuff is phenomenal. Fastball at 115, 108 overall with a 106 pitching plus. He's a guy that I feel like I want to take him around pick 200 in every draft that I don't need to. He's got to like 250 in the main event, 240 to 260 range, generally depending on which contest you're in. But a guy who is going to make all 30 starts barring any kind of injury, he will be in that rotation. And I think the skills are really, really good. He's not going to blow you away with the strikeouts on a perinning basis, but I think the volume, he can still get you 150, 160 Ks. And you don't have to take him, like he's like your SP7 or something like that.

4:09And I think the potential is there for a top 40. I want to be kind of conservative top 45 SP season overall here. Yeah. I like Ryan Nelson, too. Again, he was sharp last year. And honestly, you might be selling him short because I think he might have beaten that last year. I don't know. I mean, 154 innings is pretty darn good. And as our friend Nick Polygo always points out, the player rateer is a bit of a, you know, innings pitched sort of rank or their volume can really drive you up. And so Ryan Nelson was SP 40 last year. So a repeat is fine to call for. You don't always have to call for extra for a guy. It can just do what they did last year and be good. Justin, who's your favorite here in this good last year group? I hate to just copy what Joe just said, but it is Ryan Nelson. That's fine. You don't have to make up somebody if it's not, if you don't fully believe it. I mean, I don't, and I don't think it's pretty good close of anybody else we're going to talk about today. He is my most rostered pitcher so far this year. Oh, very nice. I have him in 60% of my NFBC leagues and then both Tout and Labor. So I got him 38% three of my eight over at NFBC.

5:12So this is definitely a guy that I'm going to have to take in the third round of our O.C. Yeah, we're guessing, we're guessing Ryan out here is going to be rough. I just think there's more strikeout upside to this profile, right? We're seeing in the spring with a 35% strikeout rate, you know, over his, over his 12 innings. It's a really good job of limiting hard contact, limiting walks, it's a really good part to pitch in with a stellar defense behind him, which I think is really, really important both in field now field defense is really, really good in Arizona. I just think there's so many reasons like him. This was a guy I think a lot of people were in on a few years ago. And then I feel like because he didn't get the opportunity to be in the rotation full time, people have kind of forgotten about him a little bit, not completely. He's going, you know, around pick 200 and stuff. I really like him and I think this is a guy who, like you said, he doesn't need to take a step forward, but I think he can. And I think the fact that you're getting him where you're getting him is, is a perfect

6:13price. Yeah. I'm, I'm waiting guys on Nelson. Like I said, I've got him in a bunch of leagues too. I'll give some love to Chad Patrick, who I originally kind of put down as, as Tobias Myers 2.0 and that really kind of undersold him, or maybe it is 2.0. If you think about 2.0 being an improvement, a better version, because it isn't just a carbon copy of Tobias Myers, I think there's a lot more heat here with Chad Patrick. Right down to his stuff. And I think that's where the, where the potential growth or at least sustainability can come from is that his stuff was pretty strong. I don't think Tobias Myers ever really showed stuff quite on this level. And I'm so fully in the bag for the brewers. And we're going to talk about that a lot today because we got a lot of their guys coming up that I just find myself gravitating toward them because I like the talent and I like what they do. They keep getting guys that I already had an affinity for and now with a team that I think can make them better. That's all the better. Now, Chad Patrick was somebody I didn't really know about until last year, but again, trusting this organization jumped early, the toughest part for him was he only went three and eight. He deserved a way better fate than that.

7:15And that alone probably held him back on a player raider, but he can, he can turn that around and get some dubs. But I think more of the same for more innings this year for Chad Patrick is definitely possible with the brewers. All right, Joe. Oh, I want to talk about Chad Patrick, too, because Chad Patrick is one of those guys who I kind of overlooked and I honestly do think it is because of the meme of him having two first names. But as I dug into him more, the more impressed I got with, he's got four pitches with stuff plus over 103 of them were stuff plus of 11 or better, like the dude has unreal good stuff. We know the brewers are a fantastic pitching organization. I think they're going to get a lot out of them. I know the spring hasn't been very good, but I'm not super worried about it because they've already kind of cemented him in that rotation for the early part and obviously with their injuries to a priester and Woodruff. We don't know where he's going to be at. I think Patrick's going to have quite a bit of rope in his rotation. So Patrick is another guy that I absolutely love as well.

8:16Wait, Woodruff is fine. Relax. You keep saying that and he is fine. You said that last time when I was like, he's tracking toward opening day, nothing has just changed there, folks. I don't know if he's still pitching or not, but nothing has changed on that for Logan Henderson got sent out and he's still nursing stuff. Well, I think overhanders is broken. So I think Patrick is established in there and it's Harrison and Sprote who we're going to get too later that I was alluding to there that are jumping up. Joe, give me a bust here in the good last year category. Ooh, I know it's tougher because these are, these are what it's going to be a flame out that isn't just an injury to I got one. I do too. I mean, I can paint the picture of Noah Cameron being a bust. Okay. I think that there's a chance that he does kind of like an Andrew Abbott type of thing as the lefty who is just good and the supporting metrics say that he maybe shouldn't be as good as he is. But last year is a sub three ERA. All the supporting ERA indicators were above four, only a 20% strike out rate. I think there is some regression risk.

9:18Now he's priced appropriately. People aren't taking him as they would maybe a decade ago for a rookie with a sub three ERA. Sure. But I think the low strikeouts that he debuted with, maybe they rebound back to where he was or the miners, but there's no guarantee of that happening in one year. He was still below average in terms of the strike out rate. And I think that that will potentially come back to bite him if I'm painting a picture of a bust. Below average stuff, really not a great fastball, the, I mean, stuff grades aren't to be all an end all, but an 82 stuff plus fastball is kind of rough. The fences are coming in in Kansas City. So I could paint the picture of Noah Cameron falling back to mid four's ERA level. Yeah. I think that makes, I think that makes plenty of sense like a, he's somebody I do like, you know, and Nick calls him a swatch a south pole with a tight change up and that definitely tracks. You know, he's got a good change up that kind of carries Cameron, but he doesn't have much else in it. And again, the fence, fence is moving in few extra homers. He was already at one two last year, couple extra homers with a little bit of regression that we were already kind of expecting.

10:18All of a sudden, he's a mid fours high fours guy and you're cutting him early. Like I said, I know this whole group is affordable. So even if they stone cold bust on you, well, that was a weird way to phrase that. Even if they go belly up on you completely, that's fine. But I still want to know like who you, who you're concerned about there. So that's a good plan there with Cameron. Justin, who's yours? I bet it's the same as mine. Oh, I wonder if it is the same as yours. It's Mike Burrows. Oh, okay. It's not. Go ahead. Are you Nick Pollock in disguise? Is Nick of not a Mike Burrows guy? I think it's less than his anti Mike Burrows and more pro Ryan Weiss. Now, they're not competing because they're doing a six man. But I think it was always like, I'm pro Ryan Weiss too. And we'll talk about him in the KBO, but it was for just for Nick. It was always like, why go for Burrows when you can go for Weiss. Two hundred percent. I think that's a really, really good point. But I also think that Mike Burrows is just not a very good pitcher. Uh, he has a somewhat of 95 overall, 86 on the fastball. He's moving from a park that really helps protect you in terms of your starting

11:22pitching over to, you know, a park that does not. And I just think this is one of those examples of like, Oh, like, Hey, we got some away from Pittsburgh to a good team. He's going to be good and people and there's no reason to think that Mike Burrows will be good. I mean, no reason. No reason to think he had a 16% strikeout minus vlog last year. Healthy 12% strike out a swinging strike rate. Like that, those are fine based skills for a 25 year old 26 this year, going to organization. He's got to know what they're doing. All that PNC sure, you said there's no reason to think Mike Burrows could be good. I disagree with the idea that there's no reason to think he could, he's a, he's a junk baller. He's not like he does not have like a pitch that is okay. It hasn't, it didn't prevent him from success last year. Why is it all of a sudden going to be such a hindrance? It's all I'm asking. I'm just curious why, why there's no redeeming quality here.

12:24I don't know. I don't know where the redeeming quality is. Like 31% K rate and spring with a 14% strength rate. Like, and maybe they unlocked something for him that I haven't seen because he keeps the ball down. He's actually had a 50% rate on the ground ball. So I don't know. I'm not. It's not a great infield defense though. So that's fair. He's still prefer that over the Homer stuff, especially without 2v entering the mix back at second base. Sure. But you can't cut in both ways. You can't say he's got a homer problem and then get mad when he wants to put the ball on the ground. I don't want to take some base hits over some homers for when you're a ground ball guy and then you still have a homer problem that concerns me, right? I don't know. It does. He had a 42% ground ball last year. It's 50 now and no homers. Is he developing here? That's the question, right? I strongly push back on the notion that there is no good reason to think that Pearls. You literally said there's no reason to think he could be good. I disagree with that. That's all. All right. All right. So you can disagree with me all you want, but I just, I don't think he's a good pitcher and like this idea that somehow he's going to become a good pitcher in Houston because

13:28he, you know, is leaving Pittsburgh. I think there's a weird notion like this. There are some people who really think he's going to take a step forward and I just don't see where. There is the place where he takes this huge step. I mean, you, less use of his fastball into his secondary is like we always see with guys like what or, or maybe get a better fastball, whether it's going to be a sinker or a cutter. I mean, there's a plenty of different avenues. Obviously, I think just using less of a bad foreseemer, which Pittsburgh seems to have issues with dating back to the race series days. I mean, they've been over different regimes, but they always seem to be throwing fastballs more than the, the, the, the average and to the point like he, he is using a fastball lot less than spring and, and relying more on the slider, which is just done that you can't see any avenue. That it's the, it's the stride and see with which you're, you're talking that's got me so flabbergasted on burrows that you're like, this is a piece of shit and if he dies, who cares? And I'm like, damn, dude, he didn't say that obviously. But I'm like, like, I'm not saying he's a stun, but you are hammering my guy here.

14:30I think there is reason going to Houston, a competent organization at pitching development. I know Mike Burrows doesn't listen to this, but no, I like him, Mike Burrows. I think he got scurrying on next week that I let you guys know he's, oh, you didn't tell us. Oh, the new schedule's out. Oh, Mike Burrows. Well, that's canceled. All right. So mine, I feel bad about this, dude, because I was banging the drum for this guy as hard as can be last year, but it's Shane Smith. Oh, I'm concerned. I'm concerned. I'm concerned that the, that is pumpkining. Now listen, I was concerned that he was pumpkining within the season last year and I tried to be Mr. proactive Pete and cut him. And I don't regret it because what I got from him for what I paid my last round pick was totally fine, but he bounced back and closed strong. And I was like, damn, that was actually really, really impressive to see a guy take the punches as a rookie, but bounce back within the season. So then why am I off? Because he looks freaking horrible in spring. And I'm always reluctant to make too much out of seven innings for crying out loud. But the video's down to mile plus at one point two. And then a negative strikeout to walk ratio.

15:31What is going on? In my cursory search, I couldn't find anything to suggest that he was working on like two new pitches or something, which I could forgive if we just didn't care about the results. But these results are beyond horrendous for Shane Smith. So I'm concerned. Well, in the worst part, too, is like he is another one of these bad fastball guys, right? Yes. We want to see him pitch backwards more often than we see him really rely on the fastball. He's doing his fastball almost 60% of the time in spring because they're just pun, they're hitting the fastball before he can get to anything else. He needs to start pitching backwards, maybe. Yeah, like it is, well, and he's still not even like getting into the zone. He's the zone percentage is down almost seven percent. First, first pitch percentage is down six percent. Like you said, the Velo drop. Shane Smith was like, I actually really liked coming into the season and now during spring. I'm like, he was one of my one dollar buys on my Labidini team. And I'm like, do I drop Shane Smith before the start of the season? I'm debating it. Like, yeah, let's talk through your other cuts in our chat.

16:34I think I would still hold if you've already got a Shane Smith. It's a 12 team league, though. Like, if you have any other cuts, can you at least get like C a start? Because again, I only did a cursory look, but I couldn't find anything that said he was working. I think I read Demaritz. Yeah, you can. And I rode him. My update's going to go out after this. We're finally off of this. Oh, I'm off of Demaritz. Yeah, I put it in there as like, guys, I don't have any shares and I don't think I'm going to get any. So yeah, I am concerned about Shane Smith, folks. Again, I love the heart that he showed last year bouncing back, adjusting in season. I hope that this is just a little bit of spring blurb. You know, okay, I'm just messing around with some crap. And then he comes back and he's good, but I'm not drafted him anywhere. All right. Last part of this, this grouping here, actually, no, I'm not going to do this. I'm moving on to the next one. Sorry. I was going to say, give me a bold prediction from the group with the guys left. Would you want to do that with the guys that aren't crossed off? That would be Ashcraft, Mice, Warren, Lats, Wilbur Richardson.

17:37I want to do something with SWR like, you know, Dino Joseph. We can skip that, Kat. I just made that up anyway. So we can skip that if you want. We can go to our post type, guys, if y'all don't want to be put on the spot to come up with a bold prediction, especially when you don't believe in. I didn't prewire y'all for that. So let's just go. Yeah, there's no one really left in this. I mean, Casey Mice is interesting to me. I still think there's a world where he could have a huge scene. And I do too. Like, and, you know, he's been kind of an afterthought, even though we're talking about like the number one overall pick from 2018, the walks scare me a little bit this thing. And that's kind of my, he nibbles and yeah, he's a little chomper. Well, and I wonder if he's one of these guys that like because he nibbles so much, is he going to get eaten up by the ABS system, right? Like he's, he's still giving up. He's still giving up bombs too. Like, he'd be one thing if he wasn't giving up bombs, but he's not giving up. So it's everything. Yeah. So it's all going sideways for him right now. So yeah, I won't put you guys on the spot for the bold prediction stuff. Post type. Let's get into this group here again, very straightforward category that we're dealing

18:38with here. Kodai Sangle leads it off. I put Joey Cantillo. It's Cantillo, not Cantio, folks. He is Italian, not Hispanic. So that's, that's a trick right there. And Slade Sakone, both of those on the style guy that, or the pronunciation guy that Nick passed out, Max Meyer, Kyle Harrison, Matthew Liebertor, Dustin May, put them together because they're both Cardinals, Johan Oviato out in Boston, Cade Cavali, Mick Abel and Taj Bradley in Minnesota, Reed Dentmers in Jose Soriano out in LA, Walker Bueher and Randy Vasquez in San Diego, both turning some heads, crazily enough. Debbie Matthews, who we kind of already spoke about, maybe I should have put him with Woods Richardson, except they just didn't fit the same category, Spencer Irrigetti, and then Didier Fuentes, who's making some noise for Atlanta, who's already lost two of their massive pitchers. We don't know what's up, you know, how good his strider going to be. So Fuentes is kind of making some noise. Justin will start with you in the post type straight up, favorite, right off the top. Who, I think it has to be Kyle Harrison, like, okay, Harrison and Brewer. Yeah.

19:39For those who don't know, like, Harrison was the top prospect of the Giants that I absolutely hated. Yes. Like, we went to Arizona, fall league. He was like the big name in Arizona, fall league, like what two or three years ago, and longer at this point. And like, and everybody's like, oh, go watch him pitch. Go watch him pitch. And so I was like, you know, I'd seen him pitch before it interplay, but I'll go watch him pitch see what everybody's talking about. I'm like, this is a reliever. There's a, you know, a good lefty reliever like he doesn't have a third pitch. Like, you know, like the fastball can become pretty straight at times. But he looks like a completely different guy. Dave Fastball. Right now. Jesus. He looks like a really different guy. And right now that change up is a massive difference. Like, it's really added a third pitch for him. And I really kind of believe what he's done. You, I don't know if he learned it in Boston and the brewers, which is, you know, getting to kind of reap the rewards of that trade or if the brewers are the ones who have, you

20:41know, kind of reshape this change up for him and made him a more complete pitcher. But I really buy everything we've seen. And I think, you know, we could finally see kind of the promise of that early prospect predatory when he was, you know, the giant's top prospect kind of come to fruition here in Milwaukee. Yeah. And this is a situation where you're just looking at the core skills. You see a 26% strikeout minus walk. Yeah. Barely care about the results around it because they aren't pretty bad. He's like a three seven homerine. I don't care. He's clearly rebuilding his arsenal under their vision of what they want. They're seeing the core skills and that's what they care about. And I guarantee you, they don't give a single guy, they got them about his seven, twenty five year. It's a 14% swing and strike rate, a 78% zone contact, a 32% O swing. Like those are all really, really sweet numbers. Yeah. I'm not super worried about, you know, the, the homers he's given up in spring because like it's a really small sample. It's nine innings. Like we're not. And again, if he's working on a pitch that they say, throw this 12 times in a row, results be damned. They don't care about the results.

21:41Why would I? Is it eight, eight percent change up guy last year? He's over 20% so far in spring. That's huge. Yeah. With Milwaukee. I'm totally with you. I wasn't initially when they got him because I really was going for my guy, Robert Gasser. But hey, for me, it was like whoever wins the race. I had who I wanted to win the race with Gasser, but whoever won, I was going to be there. So with Sprote and Harrison looking like they're basically going to take over for Gasser and Priester, the guys that I really like coming into the year, that's fine. I'll move off the guys I like and I'll go to Sprote and Harrison because I really really, really trust Milwaukee. Joe, favorite in the post type group. I got to play some bagpipes for Logan Henderson because I have a couple early DC shares that are looking ugly. Right. I know. At least it's a long season though. It's a long season. It is a long season. My post type guy. He's been my most drafted pitcher of the entire season. And I've mentioned to you guys a couple times is Kate Cavali. I haven't loved with Kate Cavali even before the spring, but the spring has only made that even better. The strikeout rate is up. This nine innings, but he's striking out 28% of batters.

22:44The whip is at 0.33. Command looks good. Last year, he came back after missing a couple of seasons and now he's far removed from his Tommy John surgery, his arm trouble in general, four pitches with at least the 13% usage with a stuff of at least 102 is a very deep, very deep arsenal. Even with the poor or results last year, sub 5% barrel rate, 87.7 average exit velocity in a 41% hard hit, 55% ground ball rate. And I was expecting the strikeout rate to tick up and it looks like it has a 12% swinging strike rate last year led to only an 18% strikeout rate. So I think we can see mid 20s there. He is the ace of this staff, which isn't saying a hell of a lot, but he is the opening day starter. Yeah. He is. And I think we're going to get 30 good starts mid three ZRA, maybe a 120 whip with a boatload of strikeouts. Yeah. Kate Cavalli, definitely on that post type train, really excited to see what he can do this year with Washington. Again, I think they'll be bad, but I think they'll be regular bad. So you know, upper 60s, low 70s wins, not 50 something.

23:47I think they have some talent, although they sent Dylan Cruz out and like not that he was going to be the maker break, but I might have him completely wrong. He might just be terrible. I'm a little worried about Cavalli. Like, yes, I know the spring has, you know, been been pretty good, but he's not really getting a lot of swing and miss going, it's a 9% swing strike rate, 27% O string. He's relying more on the slider, which isn't very good. And so I don't know if we're going to see this break out from Kate Cavalli, I think. 60% ground balls, though. The 60% ground balls is good, especially because our boy Nassine Nunez is playing second. And that is a massive like upgrade to the defense, but it's still not a very good infield defense. No. But Abram is still short, Luis Garcia is still at first, Brady Houses still at third. Like it's, you know, Nassine Nunez can only fix so much defensively, they won't be homers. They'll be based hits that in that rather than homers at least that is helpful.

24:48But like, you know, part of his spring has been aided by a point who five, three bad if surely that'll hold that's a true skill, right? I think he's I do think he can be better than he was last year, but I don't see a massive jump coming from Kate Cavalli. Okay. Well, honestly, though, at this price point, he doesn't have to have the massive jump. Yeah, that's true. It's like, it's that 5% outcome that maybe he gets the big break out, but you'll take a nice step forward too. Yeah. I think we might go to here. So get another one in the holster, guys, because I just like a lot of players, I got like four of them. Yeah, I could easily go the entire group, but again, we'll never get done if we do that. We have like a hundred pictures listed, but I got to go with Kodai Sanga with Shouts my boy Greg Martin, who we're going to have on shortly after draft season's done. He's out in Vegas, killing it right now, and we'll review some main events together. But I was kind of copilot, copiling with him on one of his mains, just kind of being a soundboard for him while he was making picks. And he brought up Sanga. And I got to be honest, guys, I hadn't been paying attention. He's back and looks amazing.

25:50Small sample caveats about as they are with every spring training thing. I don't really care, though. I just need to see Sanga upright and pitching. That's not a question of where his talent is. It's always about his health for me. But the fact is, he has a 29% strikeout minus walk in 10 spring innings with a 96 mile an hour fastball. So the VLOS up, the skills look good, and he's healthy right now. I think he's a bargain. I just I just think at pick, while he's up inside the top 200 now, but he was outside the top 200 when Greg and I were talking about it. But even right here at 196, I got no problem with that. The market is getting hot to him. But even with the boost into the 190s, 180s, I don't think that's cost prohibitive on Sanga. I'm really in on a bounce back. And hey, maybe I only get 90 innings, but at pick 200, pick 190, I can live with that if they're 90 good innings. Yeah. I mean, that is what it comes out to, right? It's like, how many innings are we actually going to get? How many are we getting from any of these guys who are not bankable innings wise here? I'm not saying that like defensively. I'm saying like, this is a group of like, you're paying for 50, 70, 50 to 90 innings

26:54and you're hoping for more. Absolutely. So like, and the price isn't prohibitive at all. Like this again, like we've talked about with a number of other guys this off season. When you're getting guy after a certain point, and then if you're worried about injury, Brian Weathers, right? He's healthy now. I'll take the innings now Chris Boobitch. I'll take the innings now. Yeah. I'll take the innings now. Take the guy now. Okay. If I have to drop him, I have to drop him, but maybe if I can get 60 good innings at the front end, you know, because you don't know what your team is going to look like on my warrior day. So take the innings now and see what's what. If we get a full season out of Sangha, you're going to load up with a bunch of those guys. Of course not. Absolutely. Absolutely. Okay. Do you want to pick your next breakout or do you want to do your bus? How do we want to do this? Second breakout each and then come back around to the busts up to you. You're the host driving this thing. Let's do. I've got my back. Because I want, I'm hoping in a weird way that someone's breakout is someone else's

27:54bus. So let's do the breakouts again. Let's run it back with the second breakouts here in the post type category. We have the two guardians left, Cantillo and Sucone, Max Meyer, Libertorn May on the cards, Oviato on the Red Sox, Abel Bradley on the twins, Depp Merceriano on the Angels, Bueller Vasquez on the Padres, Zevedaya, I say actually, Zebulon with the twins, Erigetti with the Ashows and Didier Fuentes with Atlanta. Go ahead, Justin, your second one. I mean, to be quite honest, like I could pick breakouts all over this. It's a fun group. It's a really, really fun group. There are a few guys who are definitely like, oh yeah, I'm not really buying it, but for the most part, there's only one bus here for me and I wonder if he'll be the same bus for you guys. But my next breakout is Max Meyer and if you've listed the podcast, you know I'm a big Max Meyer fan. What would you say it would be a good strikeout rate in spring for a guy? Anything 30 plus, you know, you know, especially with those small samples. How does 50 sound to you? It hits my ear nicely. I like that.

28:55Max Meyer has a 45.8% PEP right now. He's absolutely striking out the world, not walking guys. Now obviously that is a small sample silliness, but we love small sample silliness sometimes, guys not giving up a home run in any of these outings as well, like his, his fit right now is 0.67, like he's just in pitching insanely well. And I think one, he's healthy finally, which is a really, really good sign. But also, like he has really gone away from that bad fastball, right? Like he has said, like, I'm not going to throw that very, very much because it's not a very good pitch. I'm going to throw the sinker. I'm going to throw the slider, you know, like, and I'm going to get guy. Guys out and he's doing it right now. The Marlins confirmed who their rotation is. Yes. If they're number three starter for the start at the beginning of the year, which for me is really important because I think the four or five starters are going to get replaced by prospects, probably somewhat early in the season with white and snowing, probably

29:59both coming up at some point, you know, late April early May. But with him being the three, that means he has some rope to kind of cement himself. Obviously he could pitch his way out of it, but so far he looks so good in spring. I don't think that's going to happen. Just needs to say healthy. I love Max Meyer this year. Love Meyer as well. Love that you're that you're co-signing him wrote him up just today for my update, announcing that, yeah, I think he's going to, I didn't have the information that they had announced everybody yet. But I was like, I think Meyer is going to be in and I think Garrett's going to lose out to junk. Obviously, I could easily say that and be lying, but why would I lie about that? I just, I thought that they were going to go with junk over Garrett because I think they want to nurse him back to health a little bit more. I will say this. You mentioned the four, five, whoever that is, it looks like it's going to be junk and paddock. Or maybe one star to each guys, they open with the white socks. I'm just saying, I think the white socks are more competent team this year. But if you want to go for a Jansen junk stream, I could see it. Probably not paddock. I don't think I can get on the paddock train, but I'm still in Chris paddock.

31:00I don't. I don't know. Dicks. He's always he pushing out, smelling. I don't know. Because they don't want to start the clocks. Yeah. I know, but like that's dumb. They've created a program to disincentivize that and they were 79 and 83 last year, right? So if you're like that close to 500, what are you dilly-dallying around with freaking Chris paddock for? I understand if it was maybe just one young guy and like, okay, we don't want to use all his innings early, but like have them there ready to go. Here's the thing. Like with the potential of a lockout and missing time next season, all these, last time we, you know, COVID in last lockout, right? Where we missed time. Nothing Miami smart enough to be thinking like that. But the teams are, right? Like this is why Connor Griffin's not going to make the team, right? Like I said, it's kind of like the team because he's not ready. Okay. Never. He hit two home run. Listen, that was always crazy. But I'm telling you, like, there's going to be taking him these cheap organizations. It was silly from the get go, right?

32:01But these cheap organizations, they're going to protect a year of service time because they know they're going to give up a year of service time next year. So like, it wouldn't be surprising me if we don't see these guys up until the super two deadline passes, which means we're not seeing him till July. Well, stay losing then losers. Anyway, I don't care. I don't care. Honestly, and like, I try not to get caught up in it because I got caught up in him last year and I literally missed time to him every single time. Every single time Johnson, John, had a good start at stream on I take the punch in the face. I'd cut him. He'd do well again and then come punch me in the face again. But even with that abuse, he's pitching all right and springing again. He opens with the white socks. So maybe, but not my breakout here. Who is your second post type breakout, Joe? Matthew Libritor. Oh, you son of a gun. That's all right. You still mine, but I'll pack on with you. Go ahead. I want to say as an Italian, I wish they would pronounce it the classic. It's halloween way and people want to keep it easy. Libritor, come on. And then what's what slays last name then?

33:03Chacony. That's what I thought. But that's not how they're putting it on. I know. I know the right way. I want to be clear. But it says Sakone on there and I'm going with what B ref says. If that's what he's going by, I totally get it. But I knew it was it's Chacony, right? Chacony. Yeah. Okay. Sorry. Go ahead on the story. Chacony. That same type of thing. Exactly. Yes. Exactly the same thing. The one that pissed me off more than any is caglione. I know. That one drives me nuts. Italian folks. Who's there? Words on that one. We're petty. We're petty people as cool. But Matthew Libritor is really, really good, I think. And Lance Brasdowski put me on to this one a couple of weeks ago when he came on as a guest on a different pod. But he was pre-serviceable last year. I know that the end numbers were 421 ERA, 131 Whip. That's good. Like for, like for major league, not for fantasy, but for pitching in the majors. That is competent, very competent. And there were stretches where he was really good, especially in the first half of the

34:05season. Things kind of fell apart for him a little bit, but I think the skills are pretty solid and he's looked really good in spring and his three spring appearances is 10 innings. It's a 270 ERA, which forget about that. It's a 35% strikeout rate with only a 2.5% walk rate, a whip of one on the button. And I think an important factor here too is the Cardinals are going to just leave him in the rotation. Like they did last year. He is really safe. Like we mentioned earlier, once we get to this range, like innings become a bit of a concern. You don't know who's going to get there, who's not. Libritor's floor for me is like 140, 150 innings if he's not hurt. At least, maybe even a little bit higher than that. And I think with some of these skills we're seeing in spring, we could see maybe not a full-blown breakout, but maybe we get that ERA into the mid-3s. You take up the strikeouts. It's probably going to be like 17 wins to go around all season in St. Louis. But I think he could make up for that with the ratios and with the strikeouts he's going to give you. No, I'm totally with you on this. I've been able to understand for years, but I admittedly had started to kind of move off outside of DCs. He was definitely a bastion at like pick five, something in DCs because I'm like, well,

35:07he's on the Cardinals, he'll pitch fine. But I really wasn't like looking at him this year for redrafts until the spring came through. And he really just is looking great across the board. He doesn't have a single smoking gun thing of like a velocity jump or an arsenal, arsenal overhaul or mechanics change. Everything is just better for Libertor. And you mentioned something that I find really important. He made it a full season last year, Joe, 29 turns. There's so much value in being able to do that and showing that you can go through the grind earns you so much confidence with teams. You know, we keep asking like, why does somebody like Chris Patti keep getting opportunity after opportunity? Well, you do still have to make it through a buck 62 and, you know, you're looking for guys that can kind of get you through that whole grind there. And they are not always great endings with Patti, but he has shown at least when he's healthy that he can eat up some innings. That's why teams keep turning to him. Libertor is not that he's certainly better, but I love that he showed he could do the 29 turns last year. I really think he could jump this year mid threes, good whip.

36:09And yeah, not going to be a ton of wins. I don't care. Not really what we're taking him for. All right, so my post type is red debt. No, I'm just kidding. I'm actually going to me. I'm actually off red debt and because while I am excited about my medics and I hope that he can help, you know, get the best out of red debt and I'm very discouraged by minus two miles an hour, Velo and spring and an eight percent strike on minus walk. Okay. I'm sorry. Like again, small size, small size caveats, small size caveats and all that. He could flip on a dime, but the minus two Velo's getting me way more than the eight percent strike on minus walk. So I'm actually off debtmers this year. You know what I'm taking a look though is in Minnesota and it's fitting that they have two guys being named the twins, of course, because I like both and I'm going to cheat and go for both here with Mick Abel and Taj Bradley, Taj Bradley was someone I put in my bold predictions with a very bold. He's going to be a top 25 pitcher this year. That's very, very bold. I understand that. But I still think he's a really good pitcher, y'all. When we look at his career at this point, 385 innings, Joe, what do you think his Sierra

37:10is for 385 innings of Taj Bradley? Sierra. 367. 395. Okay. You were hot to my game trying to guess lower. It's only four, but I think a lot of people maybe think that it's higher because he has a 486 CRA. But no, he's at four, which again, it's fine and it was boosted. Actually, you guys would have been right coming in last year because he was in that upper threes range, 375 and then last year really tanked him. And I'm not going to sit here and pretend like last year it wasn't bad for Taj, but you know, what he did do was make it a full season for the second time in a row. Well, full enough in 2024 with 25 starts, 27 last year. He's now shown he can do it. You guys start putting the talent to use, but at least in spring, he is. And I, you know, how many times can we say about the small samples? But the skills are there. They've jumped up. His strikeout stuff is looking better than we've seen basically since the minors and his walks are in check at 8.5%. I can live with an 8 to 10% range from Bradley as long as he's missing bats. Now classic twins fashion, he's still letting some homers out and that's a little bit of a concern.

38:10But I do think we can get some upside from Taj Bradley. Mick Abel is carrying probably a higher floor right now if these control gains are real. Always, you know, more of a thrower than a pitcher coming up, but a four time top 100 prospect, all he's only 24 years old. That shocked me. I would have said like 26. I thought we were maybe getting into that prospect fatigue stage with Mick, Mick Abel. But no, he's only 24 years old. He's got a 30% strikeout minus walk in spring powered by a 5% walk rate. He's a career double digit guy in the minors. Again, how real are those control gains? Is going to determine how far he's going to go this year? But that's real enough to me and spring that I'm going to take the shot that we've seen a change and that he's worth the ticket to see if Mick Abel is going to finally put it together as a one time big prospect. So I like both Abel and Bradley with the twins. Yeah. I mean, I like both Abel, well, I like Abel more than like Bradley. That's fair. I do too, by the way. I got a little bit of separation between them. I'm a little bit worried about how much Bradley stays in the zone.

39:15He's got like a 51% zone rate. His stuff is really good, which is like, hey, get people to chase that outside of the zone a little bit more. Don't be afraid of walking a guy and giving up that, you know, instead you give up that home run because of his stuff, like his fastball, it is above, you know, hundreds of stuff, plus, but it's actually one of the lower of his pitches, you know, the sinker gets one 11, the cutter gets 105, the curve gets one of one, like I want to see him kind of use that fastball a little bit less and not sticking the zone quite as much. But there is a blueprint here for him to be good, that's what I'm hoping for. Yeah. If he starts talking, so can we just go back to Libertory because I'm, I'm a little bit out on Libertory. I know there are a lot of people, including some smart people. Obviously, I'm not talking about you guys. I'm talking about like people like, you know, who are, who are, you know, on Libertory this year. I don't really get it. It is another guy who like, you know, the stuff isn't great.

40:18Not everyone has to have good stuff to succeed. God, we're such stuff. Of course. I, well, I understand that, but like then he really struggled down the stretch last year. It almost felt like the league just caught up to him and he was not able to adjust back. I, I don't see the, you know, the upside that I think other people do. And I'm, I'm feeling like there's a little bit of a hype train on Libertory that doesn't make a ton of sense given, you know, what he's kind of done over the course of his career. I mean, obviously, I disagree, but like, I guess like when you look at the composite and this kind of goes back to the Mike Burrow's thing where it's like, you don't see any, any path. We're still talking about a guy who has a foundation of a seven percent, seven, eight percent walk rate, right? So the control foundation and a big stuff curve. Right. So he got a swing and miss pitch there. Although, I guess curve balls, I don't know how much he's going to be getting a ton of swing and misses there. I wish he had more of a swing and miss slider.

41:19But we're seeing the swing and miss in spring to 21% swinging strike rate is powering the strikeouts. And we're definitely seeing in spring, you know, 67% zone contact, 34% O swing, 21% swinging strike rate, which you've mentioned. We're also seeing him go outside of the zone a little bit more, which we like to see, you know, because that can generate maybe some more swing and miss long term. So how moved are you by a guy that, you know, puts up 240 andnings over the course of the last two years of a four and a quarter year A and a sub one 30, barely 129, I can pretend it's way better. But like that's, you know, again, prominently, like that's quality. You don't see a guy who puts up a foundation of that over 240 and think that, like, just consolidation of his skills, not like a huge breakthrough, but just being better a bit everywhere. I can't yield a breakout there. What I can see is him taking a small step for it. I just don't know if I see the big breakout yet. Well, who's projecting like a big break, because what's that look like? I mean, like a mid three ZRA, I think he's like a four year A pitcher, you know, and maybe

42:23I do, I do see mid threes. I don't think mid threes is a big breakout though. I think the difference between a four and a quarter year A and a mid threes is just not that much over the course of a season. I mean, I mean, honestly, you know, a four year A would be a huge breakout for him considering, uh, or actually, I guess he wasn't that much. 421 last year. 421. So I, I just, I don't know that I see it. I'm, I'm not saying he can't, I don't think we have more faith in him than like a mic burrows. But I don't think you're wrong. I just think that if like, I don't know, I don't want to see the downside. I see the downside. I mean, we've already seen the downsides in the track record. Yeah, the downside was what we saw last season, uh, I think I've grown tired of not being able to see an upside unless somebody has a blazing fastball or a bunch of new pitches or a bunch of mechanics, sometimes guys just get a bit better. But that consolidation, again, that tightening of the skills across the board, just like

43:23tweaked here, tweaked there, I can result in a lot. If it's 23% K rate, 6% walk rate over a full year and it keeps the homers at one or under, I think that could be a 375 area for Libertor and you, you could be right. And I think you, I think your route, I think you're hitting on a really good point that I definitely want to echo is like, we don't necessarily need to see a massive tool change or a massive mechanic change, it will always get a breakout. But what we, what we have with a guy like Libertor is he's not overpowering, right? He's really, he really needs to sequence well, he needs to mix well and he needs to have good command and control. And things can go badly in a hurry. And what we saw last season was after Moriel Day, he had a 517 ERA because he lost that. And when I, I just have a hard time wanting to bet on a guy who's going, you know, shown that he can lose in an instant that, you know, he's going to be able to keep it together

44:24for, you know, the, you know, 140, 150 innings this year. What, what I will say about him is if you're, if you're a believer, go, go get him because the price is affordable, but just be ready to cut very, very quickly because what we saw last year is, you know, he can turn bad really, really quickly and destroy your season. I think that's not a guy, this is not a guy would hold on to if he gives you two or three of bad starts in a row. I'm fine with that part. The ruining your season part, I disagree with, so you open up Tampa Bay and ruin your season, assuming you, in no world where you're having to start him everywhere. And what was your, what was your threshold like after Memorial Day or whatever? Yeah, I mean, it was literally, yeah, after Memorial Day, he was, he was absolutely terrible. Yeah, I mean, most of that is like, he was amazing, he was amazing for the first two months this year. Right, right. And then he closed fine. I mean, he had a bad start at Seattle, which again, nobody would have used that. But like, from the at, since he down, and at the end of the year, I thought, I think that's

45:26kind of fine. I think that is kind of rebounding and being like, okay, I finished on a decent note as opposed to like when he was getting, because he did get killed, this Matthew Liebertower was still talking about the beginning of June, KC Toronto smashed him. They totally ruined that ERA immediately. He went from 273 up to 417. But then he kind of settled. He had like four really good starts in a row. Then it landed a punch to him in the face. Probably wouldn't have been using him there either, even though we're not, you know, definitely would have been using there, because they had nobody left that was healthy. I don't know. I just don't know, because where are we in this, I was getting clean up for Atlanta at that point. No, you weren't. It's not entirely as the top three, with Murphy, Prof. Baldwin, Albis. I think a lot of people were getting away from that pretty easily. But maybe not. I'm not here to argue that that much. I don't think his grind last year is quite as bad as you say where he was completely useless after Memorial Day. The compositing ERA is bad, but there's still pockets of quality there. I think Liebertower can take us to that. All right. We need some busts. Justin. Bust in this category here.

46:27Oh, well, you already mentioned Reed Demers. I just talked about my, my unsureness on Liebertower right there. Can I lead you to one if you don't know? No, I got. Oh, okay. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. There is one guy that I do not understand why people are continuing to go back to the well on Spencer, Eric, Eddie, who, okay, nice, nice. Okay, go ahead. I understand he gets wings and misses. He also walks everybody. And we saw this when he went through that stretch of like six or seven really, really good starts where he's like, he's a league winner. One star destroyed all of that and happened to me like, I was all like, I know this is going to end poorly, but I really needed a starter at that point and it ended poorly. It literally caused me, it literally caused me the win in labor that year. Yeah. Well, I trust that you're like pretty, like part of this disagreement or this dislike

47:32of Eric Eddie here. He couldn't even make a six man. No, they're running, they're running six and he couldn't even make that. And he just has no command of control. Like, yeah, like I think he needs to be in the bullpen and I understand that they're going to continue trying to, you know, make him a starter, but he's not, he's not a starter and then he'd stop with his bullshit. Yeah, tough spring too. So we'll see what's up with him. Yeah. I'll get that though. Spencer are getting for the bus in this category. Joe, what about you? Who's someone that's just not going to, not going to do it? Yeah, I haven't landed on Eric Eddie or even considered him at all. I'm going to go with Joanne Oviato. Okay. It also pairs into the next group of guys because I like early and tallie carpet. Yeah. I do too, but Oviato's not bad either. I'm torn by that. Go ahead, give us your case on being against him. I think he's okay, but I think that command is going to be a huge problem and it's going to lead to a lot of big problems, especially if you're looking at the advanced, like the X-Fibs of the world, but they're all horrible. He did have a 357 last year in 40 innings, but it came with kind of average strikeouts

48:35in a 14% walk rate, the whip with 121. Spring training, the strikeouts are up, but he's still walking 13% of batters. It's coming with a bad whip. This winning strike rate is only around 9%. So I don't know that we're going to see a big jump in the strikeout rate this year. The big thing, though, is I just think the Red Sox are not starting with their best starters this year. Brian Beo and Oviato are not better than tallie and early. And I think eventually we'll see that. I don't have to. I mean, that's the beauty. That goes back to my thing about getting through the six month grind, and you don't want to start early and Toli from day one, like I get it. And I'll actually argue against that. Not that I think that Conley, early and Payton Toli aren't better probably right now than both those guys. The Red Sox do not care about service times. They do not care about money. They've shown over and over again, they will eat bad contracts. They will, you know, though, you know, I think they just believe in Bayo. They believe they believe in Bayo and like, and they may be wrong. And I agree that I think they're with you that I think they're wrong.

49:39But this isn't a matter of like, oh, like we've got these guys who can save the service time or these, you know, like they honestly believe that Conley, early and Payton Toli need a little bit more time and triple A and that, that both Oviato and Bayo give them the best chance of winning right now. I think that will change very quickly because I agree with you like I, I think Conley early especially is just the best picture out of that for some. And he that he will be up at the end of April, but ultimately, like they have a luxury of riches and they're going to, you know, use that to their advantage early on. Raise my hand to get called on. I don't know if you're looking at the screen or are you moved at all? And I'm not saying I am. This is more like a devil's advocate piece here. Bayo with a 26% strike on minus walk in spring. You think they're, are they tapping into something? They strikeouts are up and the walks are down. It's a combo of both here for him with a 16% swinging strike rate for Bayo. Anything there. I mean, for me, Bayo for me is like God, like the BJ opt in a pitchers, right?

50:43Like he's this guy who like, he can't stay consistent with anything within his mechanics. And so like we see these moments from Bayo where it's like, Oh, that's the picture. Like they gave this big contract to, right? And then, and then like the next star who'll go out and you'll be like, Oh, well, he sucks. Yeah, it's usually because he can't miss bats. I wish I knew if there was some realness to this bat missing ability because he, you talk about moving away from the four seamer, he already wasn't throwing it. He threw it 15% last year, Bayo, it's nine percent in spring. It's a show me four seamer. So he's dialed up the cutter to 20% the sinker is his primary pitch at 38. And then this new curve, we never really seen a curve from him at 11% with the change up jumping up from 15 to 19. So something real here to the swinging. I think this is the mix that they need to do. And you know, if you've listened to part for any stretch over the last few years, you'll know how much I love Brandon Bailey as a pitching coach.

51:43Like, I think just think Andrew Bailey as a pitching coach. Like, I just think he is the best pitching coach in all of baseball. And so like, I love seeing them change kind of this pitch mix for Brian, Bayo. Will it work long term? I don't know. But ultimately, I do think the calmly early will be up in this rotation. He's going to replace somebody, but it may just be injury. They may just say we're going to, we're going to save these electric harms for the stretch run. We're going to save these guys, you know, we know we can only get 130 from them. So why are we going to start that 130 in April, as opposed to starting it in May or June? They still haven't named anybody. It's still those three fighting. And, you know, I think most had kind of perceived it as OVA doesn't like the king of the hill. It needs to be knocked off early as close to him and then totally behind, but totally spring has put him right there. I'm an, I'm an early, commonly early guy too. So I totally, I'm like, I'm fully more than I liked early coming in the last year. Same. And, and, and totally was the one who was like, maybe a little bit raw.

52:45And so maybe he's third in line. He is coming to spring and walked 2% and said, Hey, I got some control now. Check this out with a 30% K rate. So again, we hit the point that we really think that early and totally would be their third, fourth and fifth that they were just going by pure talent, but they believe in OVA with his extension. He's 98%ile. They play for extension. So they got him for that with Bayo. They sent him to the deal. They're working his arsenal. They're going to give him a shot. So just be careful when you're, when you're drafting early and totally in NFBC formats because you're going to have to wait. And I don't know how long. That's the problem. We just don't know how long. So you know, do you see OVA making like 25 starts this year or do you see him as like a placeholder? Depends how good is he? Depends how good he is, right? It's, it all depends how good he is because that's the extension thing is really the only thing I could see that they really bought into. And I looked at, a handful of their other guys and again, it seems like extension is something that they go for as like a foundational skill to build upon with the Red Sox. And his is 98%ile. Beyond that, the 95 mile hour fastball, there's not a lot to go off of. And as Justin pointed out, OVA is still walking the yard in spring and his swing is

53:509%. So even though I like the 30% K rate, it's not coming with dominant. He has a 159 year A that should not matter. I understand. I fear that it might because he was the guy coming in and he didn't pitch poorly enough to lose the job. And I think the rooks are going to go down to the minors. I just knew that's how they're going to play. So are you willing to hold them? Sorry to interrupt you, Paul. Are you guys early? Yes. I stashed them. Yeah. Yeah. I'm still draft early in the non-NFBC league I would. I would draft them this weekend and then see where the fifth starter role goes and then try to hold them for a couple of weeks and then go from there. Yeah. Yeah. Again, it's a manager, it's a manager decision. I mean, we're also not talking about like the bastions of health in this equation, right? Or youth. Yeah. I mean, Sonny Gray is 36. He's had injuries. Yon and Vieto's had injuries like Brian Beos and Andrew, like there could be a natural opening very, very quickly. So I don't have a problem. Exactly. People want to, you know, draft and just stash.

54:51It'd be my loan stash. Yeah. Took early enough. That's it. Yeah. It'd be my loan gamble here. I wouldn't even be taking anybody else who might be missing time or getting sent out at the start of the season. All right. For my second breakout here, I think everyone already knows I love Joey Cantill and I honestly I'm not sure he's going to break out. I think he might take more of an incremental step. I'm kind of asking you guys more on this one than I am saying that I fully believe in it. But have you all been seeing that Randy Baskas has been not awful? He has the largest jump in velocity of any pitcher in the majors in spring. He's at 95.7. Yeah. His skills are still pretty modest, but believe it or not. And 11% strikeout minus walk for him is massive over two times what he was last year in the majors. He was 4.6. I only give the decimal to just stress how silly. Well, it was. Well, that's because you strike our rate alone was just 13.7%. Just horrendous and throw Bueller in here too, because they're both like, I don't know

55:53what to make of this. I love Bueller as a Dodger. I don't think I can get back in. Because Bueller was actually down again, another mile and a half, but his skills are strong. Nineteen percent strikeout rate or strikeout minus walk and a 14% swinging strike rate. So again, I'm not really picking them as my breakouts. I'm just asking are either of you in on either Padre Joe start with you Bueller or Vazquez? I guess if I had to take one, it would be Bueller just because there have been some good seasons in the past and I can squint and maybe see another good year, potentially, although without the sticky, without the sticky stuff following the century. He's just never been the same. Yeah. Randy Vazquez, like you guys mentioned, huge jump to 20% strikeout rate. So what does he have to get to to make him interesting? I don't really see a world where he improves enough that makes me want to take a chance on a guy with a sub 5% strikeout minus walk rate last year. How big of the improvements be the Velo is nice, but in and of itself, if he was striking out like 27% of Padre or something, I'd be like, okay, maybe there's something here.

56:53The fact that his massive increase is still well below average, I just can't get behind those. I will say this. We have to give him some credit. And I know the R.A. Indicators called it completely fraudulent, but we got to give Vazquez some love for a 384 R.A. with those dog shit skills last year, like he was doing something right. And what it was was being very difficult to square up. He gave up a 245 average thanks to a 261 ballot. I'm sure the defense was playing their butts off for him too. But my second breakout in this group will in fact be the D.A. Fuentes who does not have a job yet, but he is fighting Bryce Elder. He's coming for you, my man. And they have all of two other guys who have an major league start on their Ross, on their 40 man roster outside of the five that they're already starting Jose Suarez and D.D.A. Fuentes. That's it. The five that they're starting and those two, everyone else on their 40 either has never thrown a major league start or is injured right now. It is crazy. Meanwhile, Fuentes is having a huge spring. I'm just excited. We'll see if he gets the role. I kind of put him down at the beginning of spring when your boy Schwombach went down Justin

57:57as like, hey, keep tabs on this guy. See if anything comes of it. And now something's coming of it and he's he's starting to go late and drafts to the point where I'm actually a little nervous about playing chicken with him in the main event and seeing, you know, how early someone's going to go. I probably shouldn't even be saying this, but you know, I'm an open book. So I don't keep anything behind. I like Fuentes quite a bit. He currently has a 63% strikeout minus walk. I don't know if that's good or no. It's pretty good. Okay. Good. He did cut up like a really sorry interrupt. He did kind of like a really bad lineup to boost those numbers as most recent outing, but who cares? Like we didn't check everyone else's strengths of schedule. So I'm not going to be dog and did the Fuentes out about it. I'm interested. I definitely think he's worth like a gamble late, especially like in your Yahoo and ESPN leagues where he's literally like you can just get him for free literally the last pick. Literally the last pick of the draft like nobody you grab him off a wire for free after and if he doesn't win the spot, you could cut him and put him on your watch list. It all comes down to his ability to control things, right?

58:59Like, you know, his control is going to be the big issue so far through nine spring innings. He has not walked a single batter, which is really, really good sign and it's a baby too, by the way. He's 21. His zone rate is over 50% so he's purposely attacking the zone right now, trying to make sure he doesn't walk guys and then getting guys to chase outside of the zone. Yeah, I think this is a really good, interesting kind of lottery ticker right here. Great. It's going to kill me for that. Let's go to our process. Wait, real quick. I just wanted to say something about Randy Vasquez real quick in case people were interested don't be. His best pitch is a slider is his slider is by far his best pitch. He throws it. He's throwing it seven percent of the time in the spring, like really dialing in that best pitch. Yeah, exactly. And Walker Bueller, like he is down two miles an hour from last year, I mean, how's he succeeded miles an hour down from where he started his career?

59:59How is he succeeding, Justin? I don't get it. He's not going to be succeeding. I don't think so in the, in the regular season, go ahead, Joe. I just want to say about Fuentes. I can't get behind him. And I know I'll say you guys, you mentioned Paul, like we can't really be dogging him for opponent quality. When we haven't mentioned it yet. So I'm a huge hypocrite, but I am going to just mention baseball reference has the opponent quality metric in the training dashboard. And his is seven point one, which is double a basic, yeah, facing double a equivalent when he was in the majors last year, he got absolutely cooked. How many innings? Nine. It's even fewer though. I think they're good. So they support my point. I know. Here's the thing. He's always been able to strike guys out. That's never going to problem for him. So I did not walk in anybody, right? Yes. Even the competition matter to some, but like he's filling up his own, he's making a purposeful move to fill up the zone and do not walk guys.

1:01:01He's free. Like he's a guy. Like maybe not in the main. He won't be free. He's like 28, 29, 38, like he hasn't even gone in each, only four of the last six mains for Diddy. Yeah. Like he's a free asset right now. If it doesn't work out, this is one of those guys, right? We talked about like the next little time. I want easy decisions, right? Because if he doesn't win, if he doesn't make a team, you cut him. If he gets, if he's walking yard and his first couple starts, you cut him. But if he's, if he's continuing like really good control early into the season, this is a massive breakout. This is a league winner, right? You guys have fans, pros love those league winner articles, right? This is a league winner. You've allowed me to Ricky Bobby. Shade. All right. Prospects. Rokie Sasaki, not really a prospect, best place I could put him, folks. Kind of the early Peyton Toli. I crossed them off already. You guys already spoke about them. We love both early. We like more. Toli. We don't like quite as much just because he feels like the perceived third of the battle there with OVA. Don't early in Toli. But we really like him too. Andrew Painter, Robbie Snelling, Parker Messick, Ret Louder, the Milwaukee Trio, Brandon

1:02:03Sprote, Robert Gasser, Logan Henderson. Honestly, the two can kind of go off to the side there with Gasser and Henderson being sent out. Jacob Lopez, Michael McGreevy, who I believe has a spot in St. Louis locked up, and then Christian Scott and Jack Weniger as kind of a summer guys for the Met, because neither of them are going to break camps. So let's start how we've been starting. Actually, let's start by the way. Give me a bust. That isn't Rokie, because we all know he's a bust. At least this year, not forever. I'm not out on Rokie forever, by the way. I'll be clear on that. I don't know if there's like a true bust here. Just someone that you think maybe is being overhyped, because none of these guys are being drafted at the point where they're going to kill you. But who's someone you're like, I don't know why the hype train is going on him. Well, I'll give you two guys. One, I hate to say it because I was really in on him at the start of spring. But it's Logan Henderson because I just don't think he's healthy. I just think he's going to need Tommy John. I think this is going to end really, really poorly for him. And it's a bummer, because I think from a straight skills perspective, he would have

1:03:06been right up there with Chad Patrick as a guy that I was, and I'm pretty sure I did get him in a couple of weeks, right, where I'm just going to have to drop him here. The other one is Jacob Lopez. And it has less to do with Jacob Lopez's skills and more to do with, I just don't trust pictures in Sacramento. I just think it's the same way to do way too dangerous. And we saw him beat Sacramento for a little bit. And then like Sacramento is going to be like Colorado for the rest of this year. Now, if you are in a dynasty keeper league, maybe this is time to buy because they're going to be going to Vegas next year. And we don't know what that stadium is going to look like. But it can't be nearly as bad as it's been for pictures, right? And maybe time to sell, you know, some of the hitters at top dollar prices right now, or at least by the end of the season. I just don't trust that part. It is really nothing to do with him. I think he's a really, really interesting picture who has some command problems, but the stuff is so good that he's going to deliver some amazing outings.

1:04:08The problem is having command problems in Sacramento is going to be deadly. And I just, I don't see a world in which Jacob Lopez finishes the season with an ERA below four. And you look at like the bad acts and they have 470 as his projection because of Sacramento. That is a disaster waiting to happen for me. Half streamers are hard enough, but when they're road only, are you kidding me? Guys are generally worse on the road as just a general default. And now I'm only going to be taking a guy's road starts out. That's just too tough. And only some of them, right? Because you're not going to start them on the road at the Dodgers, you're in a Houston or at the Yankees, you're not starting him, right? So these guys who are home only or road only, they're streamers, they're not supposed to be meant to be drafted and kept on. Exactly. No, I agree. And I know there's been some Lopez law, but he's looked great in his spring effort too. It's Sacramento for me as well, I'm totally with you on that, Jay. All right, Joe, someone who's going to disappoint here amongst the prospects.

1:05:09That's kind of my name here. Like this range, I don't have super strong feelings. I think Lopas, it's crazy. Lopas is the highest drafted age pitcher in the main event. It's kind of took me by surprise, but when you think about it, who's going to draft Sevy? Because he's a road only. Jeffrey Springs. Oh, justice for Jeffrey, not that one. If I had one, I think I agree that it is Lopas, I'm going to clip that. But I feel like a super strong fade in this group. I think that they're all pretty, all right investments at their constant. And I'll throw the reverse at you guys. Maybe Rocky isn't as bad as we think he is this year. They've said that they're going to give him the shot in the road. I know. He's got the job. Okay, sell us. Go ahead. I don't really have a great way to sell you one other than that the Dodgers have faith in him. And maybe too much faith going into last season. But the Dodgers are a team that has options. Like why would they go with Rocky over, say, River Ryan?

1:06:09Maybe they promised him. Or Reblesky. Or Reblesky even, yeah, I don't have a lot of hope in Rocky. But if it's like a round pick, I think you can do worse with your 30th round pick. I think Sasaki is interesting because of what the Dodgers are going to do, especially at the start of the season, which is throw guys for like three, four innings at a time. And I think that he'll get the front. Yeah, I'm not drafted. And I'm just okay. Okay. I think he could be successful in that role. Do I think he should be drafting him? No, I don't think he should be drafting him. But like I could see an outcome where like, hey, he throws like 125 innings of pretty quality stuff, but you don't get many wins because he's starting most of the time and not getting going deep enough, you know, to qualify. And so like for that reason alone, I'm probably out. But I do see a positive success from a real like baseball standpoint for Rocky. I just don't see one for fantasy at the moment. The part that got me with Rocky was that like we were gassing up the playoffs, but he really wasn't that good in the playoffs.

1:07:10Like he had some electric outs and he had some electric pitches. But when you really look back, it was like he's not even pitching that well in spring. I mean, in the playoffs, so why are we going crazy for him in spring? So I'm rooting for him. I like the guy. It's more of a 27 thing for me that I think he has a chance to really push through. Joe, do you have anything else on Rocky before we go to the hits here? Just a question I want to post to you guys. If they don't sign Edwin Diaz and there's no other clear closer and we end the season the way we saw with Rocky. Where is he being drafted as the presumptive closer for the Dodgers? Is he a top 50? I don't think he is the presumptive closer for the Dodgers. And that's in there. Tanner Scott is. I don't know. They just paid Tanner Scott. I don't know. They paid for luxury items. I don't know. I don't think getting Edwin Diaz was the reason why they didn't make Rocky. If they really thought Rocky was like. No, they blew Rocky's a starter. That's what he was going to be. He was going to be a starter. He was going to be a starter. It's a theoretical Justin. He said if, anyway, give me a breakout, Joe. I'm kind of buying into Andrew Painter.

1:08:12I knew I had an inkling. You were going to say that. I don't know why. I just had a bond. Go ahead. He was named the fifth starter during the podcast, by the way. Oh, sweet. Okay. Even better. Okay. So Andrew Painter got the job. I totally knew that. That's why he called him. All right. So you like Painter to just take a break through here this year. Finally. With the data that we're seeing with the low strikeout rate, there's not a lot that really supports it. Other than the actual results. He's a 231 ERA and a .77 whip without being on his A game. And I think Andrew Painter is a guy that might take a few weeks, maybe even a month or two, to fully become who he once was. But we're still talking about a guy who was 22 years old, who was a top pitching prospect just a couple of years ago. It's almost like the Cade Cavalli blueprint, except he's maybe a little bit, you know, a year before the Cade Cavalli with the top prospect, Mrs. A couple of years comes back. I'm expecting a lot more out of Cavalli, but I think there's a world where Andrew Painter kind of gets back to being that elite prospect. I know it's hard to see when you look at the data, but just the skill set and the fact

1:09:13that he is still so, so young. I think you can see it in the data. I think you can understand it a little bit. I know it's an 19 percent, sorry, go ahead, go ahead, Justin. I know it's a 19 percent strikeout rate, but it's a 15 percent swing strike rate in spring. Yeah. And the view is good too. So both of those encourage me. Yeah. Just how bad he was the miners last year with the command, the bad results. I think, but he's coming back from Tommy John, like we're expected that man in control is to use like, I think people need to forget about that a little bit and just say, hey, listen, this was the number one pitching prospect in all of baseball before getting Tommy John. We expected him to be in the rotation last year. They said he's in the rotation now, like, I think, I think you should gamble on Painter. I am. I'm just saying from the data perspective, if you just look at the last year worth of numbers, it's not amazing, but just looking back at what he once was before the surgery how young he was when he first, he was 18 years old when he made his modeling debut. So I think there is still a lot of upside. There is some downside here too. It might be a year early.

1:10:13It might be a year early, but I do agree that it could be a year early, but it picked 289. That's this is where you take the shot because if it's not a year early, it's a stud, right? Or at least a stud potential for Andrew Painter. And I am somebody who likes prospect pedigree in terms of like helping me stay attached to a guy long enough to give him a real shot, even somebody like Mick Abel, who's definitely further in his cycle than Painter coincidentally in the same org there, not anymore, but he came up with Milwaukee, I mean, with Philly. So the fact that he's a five-time top 100 guy, former top pitching prospect, that doesn't guarantee you anything, but I keep that buried in my head so that I don't forget in the midst of these down years due to injury who Andrew Painter was supposed to be, right? So I'm with Justin. I'm not holding 25 against him anymore than the return from TJ. So the results basically don't matter. The fact that he made it 26 starts is actually good enough for me to kind of be in on Painter this year. I was fading him last year. I thought I thought it was, I'm going to say outright stupid to draft him last year,

1:11:14because the earliest they said he was going to come back was July. Anybody that drafted Painter in like an NFBC, they just burnt a pick in any format other than keeper. Yeah. Yeah. But this year I'm fully in and I think he's got a shot to be good. And if he's not, you can get away from it pretty early, give it three, four, five yards, see where it's at, and then, and then quit. All right, Justin, who do you like here in this prospect here? I mean, it's Parker Messick. I'm a big mess. Nice. I think Messick is just like Tanner Biby, a guy who's got really good command and control. The stuff is better than I think he's shown so far in spring. I really like Cleveland as a pitching organization. I don't know that he's going to make the rotation and that is why is he fighting Logan Allen? Yeah. He's better than Allen. He absolutely is. And I don't think he makes a rotation, but this is a guy that I have drafted. I will probably stash for the first couple of weeks and see if he can, if he comes up because I think once Logan Allen gets blown up a couple of times, the Guardians will make that switch. Yeah. No, I like your call on Messick.

1:12:15And again, I wouldn't even say you could draft him this weekend because he's not been declared out. I don't think he's been sent out yet. How's he? No, no, he's still. So they are still fighting. And so if you want to take him this week in a main event or an OC and then just see what happens and maybe cut him in the first wave of a period if he doesn't make it, that's fine. I still, I still think Parker Messick is draftable right now for the upside. All right. I'll go with Rhett Louder as kind of a boring upside pick. Like it is a command. Oh, I don't think he's boring. I say boring only in that. I don't think there's like a huge strikeout upside. That's all I mean by that. I do believe you think he's got some strikeout heat. I mean, yeah, he's got a 27% strikeout rate in spring. He was 26% in the miners last year. I assumed that that I assume that the, well, the miners was nine innings. I assume that the spring one that was maybe overpowering some, some poor players because there's only a 10% swing strike rate. I didn't see anything kind of supporting like a strikeout surge. I mean, he's showing strikeout ability in the miners previously.

1:13:16So I'm, I'm, I like Rhett Louder. The problem is with him. I do too, but he's a 90 stuff plus in the majors. Well, it was a super small sample. You just cited a nine innings sample. I mean, I can't use a 30 innings sample, but if you watch those 30 innings like I did when he came up, they were really impressive. I agree. I'm promoting him here. Oh, you're not. You're shitting all over it. All I said was I think it's not the biggest rig because I don't know. I'm not sure I'm sold on the strikeout stuff. All the projections are under 20%. I don't think I've come up to this. I think the projections miss on guys like this for the first time. And that's okay. But like I didn't come to this crazily as a one I want to say with this thing. No. I think he's a command and control. Yeah. My first I like, I like Rhett Louder. I think you can be good. I think you can succeed in Cincinnati. You talk about those 30 innings that he had back in 24 just in how he kept the homers in. It was weird setup, right? He had like a 6% strikeout minus walk. He was actually walking guys, but he didn't allow homers and he had a 117 ERA and a 516

1:14:19ERA. It was a very weird debut. And then he was basically injured all of last year. He now has an opportunity with Hunter Green out. I think Rhett Louder could put up a nice season with Sensei. Tell me why he's a strikeout god. He's got a really, really good slider. I think, I think, you know, I think he's going to get swings and misses. You know, I think he couldn't throw it as easily last year because he was hurt. And there is risk that he gets hurt again, right? Sure. So that's just something to keep an eye on. But there is a lot of upside in this arm. And they need arms, right? Yes. All their arms are dead right now. And I throw, I guess he's not a prospect anymore. Yeah. We can talk about him in the post type. Well, Brandon Williamson is also competing here now with Burns out of the rotation. Let's just throw him here. Are you guys in on him at all? Brandon Williamson? He's back from the head. I mean, I'm spring too. I should add, sorry. I think he's one of those guys that like if it wasn't for all these injuries, he'd be being converted into a long man and that's probably where his future is, but he's been given the opportunity right now. Like you said, he is getting swings and misses in spring, a 31% strikeout rate so far this

1:15:21year in spring. It is only kind of a 10% walk rate, but he is getting a 37% O swing, which is unreal good. And he's not going into the zone of time. So he's not going to get beaten up in Cincinnati quite as much. I think this is more of a streaming guy that you want to, you know, kind of pick and choose your spots with. So I'm not necessarily drafting him. I haven't seen what their early season schedule looks like. I haven't checked either. I should add this on the sensitive situation. I said that it's Williamson and Louder and burns is out. That's technically not true. What we know right now is that the three of them burns Louder and Williamson are going to share two spots. Now will somebody get the coveted Ryan Yarbrough spot or do you think that could be Williamson, right? Exactly what I wrote today is right up. He's a lefty. I think the lot burns have the honor of the starting spot, which is kind of perfect because then like, you know, Williams and comes in for three innings and he gets the potential for the win. So I think that if I am going to bet on with these guys, it's probably Williamson.

1:16:28Even though I think he probably he definitely has the lowest upside of the group. And I think he's probably the worst picture of the group, but he's in the best possible spot for fantasy. And this is one of the situations where I'll throw out the talent aspect and go, okay, which one of these guys helps me get a win here? Yeah. No, I like again, I literally tabbed him as the potential Ryan Yarbrough 2.0 again. We've been chasing that since it happened all the way back in 2018. I would love to see them put Williamson behind Chris DeVensky disagrees. Chris DeVensky did some nice things there getting some wins and I don't want to do it like one year or two or something like that. Well, he wasn't, he wasn't holding, he wasn't getting as many of the wins and they were bouncing him from starts to closes literally. He was literally running first to ninth inning. It was kind of crazy there, but you know, Yarbrough, if you guys don't remember, 16 wins with just six starts and 32 relief appearances. He was the premier follower that was back in 2018 and I've been chasing. Yeah, he even absolutely, especially leagues with like RPSP designations like to be able

1:17:32to throw him in your SP spot like 16 wins, crazy. Anyway. So yeah, I hope they do that with Williamson and I think louder could be more of a traditional starter. All right. Let's go to the veterans. Veterans group is fun. You know, crusty veterans going to be a lot of streaming here, especially in your show or formats. They're going to be pretty decent in 15 teamers, maybe some team streamers, which means you start them not, you know, when they have their best matchups, but you don't cut them when you're not using them. Let's give you guys like Zach Eflin, Brady Singer, Grant Holmes, Merrill Kelly, Justin Burlander, Mitch Keller, Clay Holmes, Chris Bassett, Seth Lugo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Max Scherzer, Michael Walker, James and Tyrone, who's having a very, very rough spring and Jeffrey Springs, who we mentioned earlier, kind of in a joking way because he's in Sacramento. So without picking Zach Eflin, because it is well known that this entire podcast likes Zach Eflin, just to give me a give me a break through here. Oh, a break through. I don't know. So like, I'm saying not break out because it's not like they've all been good before,

1:18:36but somebody who's jumping on level from where they've been recently, getting back to like a load of mid three ZRA or something like that, doesn't have to be a season. I mean, there's a guy who was a mid three ZRA last season for 165 innings, and that was Clay Holmes. He pitches in a good park on a good team. You know, we can give you the volume, yes, the whip is a problem. You need to pair him with a guy who's going to rehab the whip, but like Clay Holmes is a very useful pitcher, kind of especially at a 15 team league, where he's a glue guy. And yeah, I drafted him a few times this year, including his like one of my $1 guys in my lab at any plant, because like, hey, I'm going to get volume from him. I'll figure out, you know, the whip offset later, but you know, the volume from a guy like Clay Holmes on a good team where you're going to get wins, I think is important. I mean, he won 12 games last year. And he's always tweaking to the point where I think he might try to get better than he was last year. I know you had a good surface level, but he knows his whips suck. He knows it like because I think Clay Holmes is like into the data and everything. He knows the ZRA indicators would probably trash, but his spring so far has been excellent.

1:19:4021% strikeout minus walk. The walk rates down to 6%. Now, I will point out that remember, we got all excited about him last year because he had a big spring. He was still walking guys, so that wasn't part of the breakout spring. It was all the strikeouts in the kickchange. This year, he's not walking guys at a 6% clip there. If there's some realness there, I'm with you. Because if he brings that whip down to 125, then Clay Holmes is a stunt for the price point that he's at. I totally agree with that. All right, Joe, give me like a breakthrough. Somebody again, returning to a level that they've been to that's, you know, better than the four something the RAs that most of these guys have been toten the last several years. There's this kid in Detroit who has a couple of decent seasons under his belt, and I'm going to do it. I'm going to do it. Justin Verlander. I'm here. Somebody in my Patreon chat at the end of last year said, should I be streaming Justin Verlander? And I'm pretty sure my response was, it's fucking Justin Verlander. This was before he had really kicked things in the notch in the high gear. But the final 13 starts of the year for Verlander was a 2.6 ERA and a 120 whip, 15% strikeout

1:20:43minus walk rate. I know that he is not a geek Verlander anymore, and he never will be again, but he still doesn't have to be. A 106 stuff plus at a 371 ADP in the main. I'm willing to take a chance on him, and I, you know, investing in 43 year olds is typically not something I would ever do, but the skills were at the end of last season, and with generational type of players, pitchers, hitters, it doesn't even matter, does it matter the sport? Generational players can have these bouncebacks that you are not expecting out of the blue. And Verlander kind of did that down the stretch last year. Do I think he'll maintain a 2.6 all year, no way in hell, but I think he can probably be a serviceable pitcher, especially as somebody you're drafting as bench step at this point. Absolutely. Classic team streamer type for JV using where you can leverage him at home, leverage him in the division. And if he happens to be good and kind of picks up where that second half left off where he's consistently good, then maybe you're using him three quarters of the time, you know? He is pitching very well in spring too, showing a little bit more swing and miss. Again, I don't know what he's working on or what's going on there.

1:21:44So I don't want to put too much into it. If he's 21, 22% K's again, doesn't walk too many and keeps the ball in the park. Verlander has some juice. I totally agree. All right. I'll give you guys a Merrill Kelly as somebody to keep an eye on. I know that he's going to start season on the IL, right? For a little bit. Do I have that right? And so that moves him off the NFBC and into the IL universe. But in those situations where you've got more than one, I wouldn't want him to be my lone guy. But if I got more than one, I'm fine with Merrill Kelly, just boringly solid and downright good last year, more than just boringly solid, 352 ERA 111 with probably not planning for that again. But it was 403 117 the year before 329 119 the year before that and 337 114 the year before that. So that's four years, pretty decent range there, only once above four ERA, never above 120 whip. Merrill Kelly is never going to get you the ooze and odds when you draft him. In fact, most of these guys won't because they're crusty bats, but he's damn solid and

1:22:45I still think Arizona, I think Texas can be a solid team this year and pitching out there. I think he'll be fine. I know he's back with Arizona, isn't he? Yeah, sorry. I should trust in what I said. It's only I think the miss like two stars, so even better than then maybe he could be your one stash and an NFBC, maybe. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's not an arm injury. It's going at pick two, seven, eight months. Back is not great because backs can linger and they can return two and two thirds. Yeah. He's not currently hurt, right? He's working back from it. So that's also encouraging. That's the same thing with like snow right now. And I know he's out long, but I'm just saying like at least he's not currently hurt. He's just six weeks away from the rehab that he's on. Of course, if they're setbacks, that's the problem. I'm not comparing them one to one. I'm just saying it's different when they hurt and working back and it's different when they're healthy, but in the rehab process. And that's where Kelly's at. All right. Let's see here again. Our universal love here is Eflin. Then we said, Kelly, Verlander, Holmes, I'm reluctant to say bust because none of these

1:23:50guys are really costs. Well, can I just give like some quick shout outs to guys? Absolutely. Go ahead. Go ahead. Go ahead. Like, you know, it won't order. You guys like, yes, he's not the picture that we thought he was, but like he's looked decent and strong. I mean, Seth Lugo has looked pretty decent in spring as well. You know, just a pouring volume guy, but, you know, I mentioned, I think last episode, like, I think the royals are going to compete for a playoff spot. And so I think there's some cheap wins there as well. And I think there was one other guy. Can I throw a max just in the Michael Walker, by the way? Michael Walker. Yeah. All Michael Walker does is throw like 140 innings with like a 35 ERA every single year. And he, nobody pays attention. And bounces around to like four teams getting cut. Yeah. Anytime he has a bad start, he gets cut. He gets picked up for five good starts, cut, picked up for seven good starts. Yeah. Just bounces around. I know he's not a bad student, but I don't really don't care. I don't need to not with a guy who's been doing this as long as he has. He's 34. There's some risk there. It's all baked into the price of your top 20 picture on Paul Spore's ranks.

1:24:54Yes. Back with the Cardinals. I was a huge Walker fan. Oh, man. Did I love him? And that would have been early. That would have been probably been 2014-15. No. So hot on that change up. And he's had a hell of a career. I feel pretty good about that. All right. Anybody else in the veteran tier here that you want to go for, Joe? I guess I'll do a tip of the hat to Mack Scherzer, even though I don't expect there to be much. The blue jays have put themselves in the spot now with all the injuries where they're going to need him. Mm-hmm. And I think it's like Verlander. Same show that I would like to be in a unicorn. I think there is that potential, but I think Verlander's skill set is much better at this stage of their careers. It's got a 10 stuff over Scherzer at this point. Now, Scherzer pitched Game 7 of the World Series when everybody was expecting him to get absolutely lit up, and he gave you good endings. He can still be a good pitcher situationally, but I think he's the guy where you pick and choose your spots. You pick him in good streaming matchups, and I think you're going to end up probably being rewarded for it, just based on the price or lack thereof. Nobody's really interested in Scherzer. And they probably shouldn't be.

1:25:54If you're talking like 12 teamers, I don't think he's a great check. Because at the end of your 15 team drafts, I can get behind it. And I think the first series of the year is in Toronto against the athletics. I'm not, that's off the top of my head, but I'll check on that. Oh, wait. I would check and take that away from Sacramento. I think if that is what it ends up being, then I think I'd be willing to use them. But that's the thing. It's situational streaming. He's not going to get 30 starts. And even if he did, you shouldn't use them for 30 starts. This is like, you pick your 10 or 12 spots throughout the year where he's in a good matchup. And I think you can get a pretty decent result for him. Yeah. And again, we'll see how healthy he is, too. That's really the big issue with Scherzer. Is he going to be available to you all year? But again, unicorn, Hall of Famer, you kind of take a shot on guys like that. All right. Let's go to the injured guys. Guys, currently nicked up. Actually, I think, yes. I was going to say, I think Scherzer would probably line up for a home series against Colorado. Oh, even that totally works. Yeah. The athletics coming first, but I don't think he'll be one of the first three.

1:26:55So that's perfect. Colorado. I'd rather him against Colorado. Anyway, now that does make his second start against the Dodgers. Yeah. Then, then you draw. And unless he gets the first one against Colorado, then it's one, two, then it would be at Chicago. So if he's the number, whoever's the number four starter for Toronto, you want for those first two starts. Who is that going to be, Joe? Who's the first starter for? It was a, we, we have Max listed in the four slot right now. I mean, it'll be Gosman. It'll be Seas. He's average on the IL now. Ponds is probably getting the third start, but I could see out of some kind of seniority thing where Scherzer gets. No. We want him to get the fourth because then it's Colorado white socks for his first two. So then if Ponds gets it, then you want Ponds for Colorado white socks. And that makes him a better pick late too. Start playing the schedule with your late picks, folks. It's the time. Now we're starting to get some situate, some idea of where guys are going to be situated. Go in there and start guesstimating the schedule. Don't get a few things wrong. We're guessing, but try to play it out. And like I'm saying here with this Toronto four spot, whoever it is, Ponds or Scherzer,

1:27:58you want him for Colorado and at the white socks. And I say that as somebody who thinks the white socks are going to be froggy this year, I'm still not running for them with, from, from them with tennis pitchers because they're going to strike out a ton, right? Exactly. Even when they're bombing you out, it's still going to get, you're still going to get six punches on the way out. All right. Let's go to the injured guys. Bryce Miller, Sean Maniah, Shane Bieber, Garrett Cole, Braxton Garrett, who's not currently hurt, but again, working his way back and Justin Steele, also same thing. So it's a mix of guys, actually, is any of, I guess Miller is the only one who's actually hurt right now, aren't all of these other guys in their actual rehearse. Uh, I think Maniah is hurt. I think Bieber might be hurt or it's, I don't know how they're technically hurt. Oh, yeah. Bieber had like a setback. Yeah. Bottom line is they're not going to start the season. That's what we're going for in here. But yeah, check up on Maniah. I thought he was pitching. Oh, no. He is pitching. He's just throwing less than 90 miles an hour. Yeah. Not great. Most of these guys are kind of working the way back. Miller recently injured. I think Bieber might have had a setback like you said, Joe. So I know you're not going to draft any of them, Justin. I'm not going to force you to. I mean, maybe you wouldn't in an IEL league.

1:28:58Yeah. But if I, if I did say you got to take one. Bryce Miller. Okay. Bryce Miller. The Velo is up. He looked like a better pitcher before, uh, getting hurt. Uh, it's an oblique issue. So yeah, he's probably going to miss 46 weeks. But some of that will be, you know, counted in the spring training time. Right. You know, he'll be back probably late April. And we've seen him recently be a, you know, top 30 starter. Uh, I know last year was a disaster. But, you know, we can blame that a little bit on injury. And he looked better so far in spring. So if there's a guy I'm betting on, it's none of the TJ returning guys. I know Garrett Cole is super super and intriguing. But we've, we've learned this lesson, right? People not everybody have we learned this lesson. We saw it last year with McLean and in Shredder and, you know, San Diego. We've learned this lesson, right? Don't do it. So that's no steel. No, too. That's no steel. He got UCL revision.

1:29:592027. Yeah. We'll see these guys in 2020. What other people do that? I think I'm with you, too, that it's Miller. For me, Garrett's my, Garrett's my second. Because again, he's not hurt right this moment. He's working back. He got sent out to the minors. So he has to kind of work his way back into rotation, uh, but he's behind Miller by a good bit. And then I don't want any of the others at all. Joe, you got anything differently on these injured guys? No, it's, it's pad, um, paddock, Jesus, it's, it's, it's going to be gone and Garrett's going to be up as well. I was trying to say, I think that's what will happen. If there are even somewhat competent, then Chris paddock will not be in the rotation. Come may. Maybe, maybe I'm just a hater. Maybe I'm just a hater. Unless he's pitching well, of course, but you don't expect. We don't expect. Jason Rodriguez into this tier two. Cause he got put on the I.L. As well. Oh, we did. Okay. Yeah. I think he was already a loss. I agree. By the way, I agree. So yeah, we'll just consider him done. Well, let's go to the bounce back tier here, guys that have recently been good, but they're looking to fight back, uh, into something Luis. Heal right now to Lopez had the huge breakout 24's and then flopped in 25. Unfortunately, mostly due to injury, Tyler Malie.

1:31:01I've been saying Molly and I've been wrong. It's Malie. Malie. Christian Haviier, Bailey over and you say, Kukuchi, Joe will start with you here. Who do you like for a big bounce back this year? The guy that I have been drafting for a lot of draft season and not recently, but DCs and NFBC 50s, I did was Bailey over really cheap. A guy who a couple of years ago was really good. Now last year was horrific for him and spring has not looked great either. Uh, we're talking about an 8% strikeout rate over again, like every other player today. A very small sample size, but with at least a recent history of pitching a lot of innings and having a good season in 23 and 24 and even in 22 and half a season, there is a world where he does get back to being very good. Now, he operates on the margins in terms of velocity and stuff. So there's a chain of Bailey over and it's a bad game. Yeah, Bailey over. I missed the names. I was trying to guess based on context. I got it. He had turned the air on. No, you're good. There is a world where he is a drop in April, but there is a world where Bailey over

1:32:01could get back to being that 2023, 2024 version where it's a high 3Z array, good command and he's giving you a handful of wins and won't be a lot of wins in Minnesota. But of this group, I'm mostly out on all of them. I think Kakuchi, there are times where Kakuchi is really good, but the whip is just brutal at the end of the day. Exactly. Just hammers you. So if I had to choose one, it would be over for the consumers and 12 teamers, take none of these guys. But if I was going to take one, it would be over. I don't quite agree with that 12 team part. I had a rule for over. If it was 91 plus, I could draft him. It's 88. Thank you. 88. I'm fully out. Yeah. No, I'm out. That's fair. And no one was a bigger Bailey over fan. Well, maybe like Todd Zola. Well, me. Well, I was until I sold you on him and then you, yeah, let's get clear. You hated him and I said, no, this guy's actually really good. And every time you sell me on a player, they just die. Oh, 2024 when he died and had a one whip.

1:33:04I'm sorry that he only had a 27%. I feel mad at you for talking for Kimberl. I deserve that. I talked him out of it, guys, when he's, when he saved like 35 games as like the, the rebirth slot, uh, rebirth closer of the year. Yeah. I was like, don't take him, dude. Nah, he's nothing. Totally sold out. Yeah. I'm so sorry about that one. Yeah. No, I, I want Bailey over to be good again, but not with, not at this velocity. You just can't do it. So where are you at, Jay, uh, Heo Lopez, Malley, Javier Cucucci, any of them tickling you? Um. Okay. So there's, there's two guys, um, one, well, there's technically three guys, but I feel less one on your team. The one on my team is kind of the middle guy, right? Okay. So Malley, um, and he looks really good in spring, um, don't, don't care as much about the results. I'm mostly looking at this stuff and the stuff is really, really good, uh, so far for Malley, uh, and that is intriguing to me, you know, so far we're seeing a 32% strike

1:34:09out right now. It is a massive 17% walk rate, but, uh, it's all about health with him. When he's been on the mound, he's been really good. And I'm willing to take the gamble because it's so cheap, right? It's an easy drop. It's one of these situations where he gets hurt, I'll drop Malley, uh, no problem. The other guy kind of similar to that right now is Ronaldo Lopez, like, I don't trust the health on Lopez. I don't trust the health on Malley, but like, you're getting him super, super cheap. They're healthy right now. I mean, he's narrowly. Yep. I'm going to take the gamble. But the guy that I think people are kind of sleeping on is Luis Heel. Heel. I know. I know you so well. He's, he just has such good stuff. Um, they're going to give him a shot to stick in this rotation. I know this particular results have been really, really bad, but it's a 20% K minus, uh, so far, 26% strike at 8 to 6% walk rate so far. Um, and like, he plays for the Yankees is going to get win opportunities and they don't have

1:35:09this rotation depth where they can't, where they can say like, oh, we're going to send him down. They're going to give him every opportunity. And yeah, like, I haven't drafted Heel, but I definitely want to. Yeah. I'm with you. Like I said, I, I, I couldn't predict that on, on both Heel and Lopez, I thought you were going to go there with them. And I'm with you. Obviously, I was the big, great, and all the guy when he broke out, uh, it went sideways last year. But I am back in both. I was out last year because of the elbow issues. That's right. And I'm still concerned, right? Like the same thing with like Grant Holmes, like we didn't really talk about Grant. Yes. Yes. But like Grant Holmes looks really, really good in spring, but like he has one last UCL than I do. And I think 45 innings. Yeah. I'm sorry. I'm paying for right now with him. I don't think you should be investing very highly in either, you know, and really any of these guys that we're talking about in this deal and throwing Grant Holmes, even though he was in the earlier tier. But the ones that are healthy now, like I'm not going to go in Traft, Manaya, or Bailey Ober when they're throwing less than 90 miles an hour.

1:36:10I'm going to travel these guys who look really good, but I know it's going to end quickly. And then I'll go pick up someone else. And it might not, right? We just saw it with Lopez and Heel. So we already know what it, what could go right with them. Let's take our 50 innings. Again, I just keep throwing out random numbers, but whatever sub 100 number you want to say, that is okay for a pick 300, 130, you're going to be stoked. Exactly. No, I'm just trying, I'm beating that point home a lot this episode and last, but that's just so that people get more comfortable with knowing that these are partial picks. These are short-term picks. And it's because of the price, right? If these guys were going on the top 150 picks, we'd be yelling at you that you're being dumb, right? That's the problem with snow and glass now, right? Exactly. I know that's always your concern that you're, now, you know, you're going to have a you're paying for an elevated premium of innings and it's a higher upside, but your general point of like, I don't want to get 90 innings and have to cut my sixth round pick with tire glass now or whatever, you know, wherever he's at. And I've dropped the glass now, like I've dropped the glass now is like my number three because you're getting him at a price point right now, where like you've never really

1:37:13gotten glass out before, right? Exactly. But at this price point, it's so easy to take the gamble. Yeah, absolutely. So yeah, anything to say about Javier or Kikuchi kind of already down Kikuchi rightfully? Anyone got any love for Javier? I don't like Javier. I don't think he's that I think he's really overrated, honestly, like maybe not at this point, but I think he had been kind of an overrated pitcher throughout the years, even when he was serviceable because he was running on bad bit. I think I think you got some fairness to saying that because, you know, when he first broke out there with some there was some big swing and miss, but then his last few healthy years here, you know, and last year was returning from injury, but it was like a lot of bad bit driving the success as the swing and miss went away. And now we're sitting here at 92. I don't know. He's been he's been getting swings and misses in spring. I'm torn on him at pick 350. Could I take a Christian Javier share? Sure. I'm not chasing him though. And I hear you on the fact that he may have been overrated and that might still be kind of carrying him. I got him in a best ball, which I'm never going to feel bad about taking a pitcher in

1:38:15a best ball because they're downside. Can't hurt me. Yeah. All right. Let's finish up with the kick. Oh, go ahead. Real quick on Kikushi. Like I know he's a shot up. I know he's a whip like liability, but that is the most understated comment I've ever heard my life. A liability. Is it though? I mean, like, yes. Last year was really, really bad. But the previous two seasons, there was one twenty one twenty seven. What was it? Those aren't though. Okay. I mean, they were high. Yeah. For sure. But like my point. You make me say one fifty, but if you have a really solid whip, uh, whip like foundation when you get to Kikuchi, yeah, let him ruin it. We're talking about a guy who has thrown over the course of the last three seasons, uh, 174 strikeouts, 206 strikeouts, 181 strikeouts, like there's a value in that volume. Um, there is it. Not with that whip. Oh, if it's a good whip, oh, if it's a good whip, but what if you get a one twenty five, you're fine with it, right?

1:39:15I understand. Here's the, here's the tough part. We don't really know till the end of the year that the trials and tribulations that you go through. So this is a pure management piece for me. I don't want to deal with the headache. And we talk about these players all the time for me, Kikuchi is a no, but I hear you. If you can get the one twenty or the one twenty seven, then those cases are worth it. But if not, then the case become a detriment because he's giving you bad volume with that whip. I agree. Okay. If he's like twenty twenty four, Kikuchi, where you get, you're getting a big win. Yeah, you're getting huge win. And he's cheap. He's cheap. Three fifty five. Yeah. And I will grant that. Oh, he's fifty five. Yeah. Oh, okay. That's still really cheap. It is. But I thought he was going more like post four hundred. No, not in the mains. Okay. Not in the mains. People jump in. They never mind. I'll take it over. Okay. All right. Let's go to the KBOers because four guys actually five did, but one of them is like a sixth starter here. It's Drew Anderson of my Tigers. But these other four are in their respective rotation. So I think they're more worth talking about.

1:40:16It's Cody Ponce. We kind of already tangentially mentioned that if he's in the four spot for Toronto, we really like him because of his first two starts there. Anthony K. Ryan Weiss, Foster Griffin and Drew Anderson coming back from overseas here. Let's, I think we can take all these guys in order and just kind of finish it up here because this is our last group. So let's start with Ponce and let's let the, let's let the Blue Jace fan give us his run down. I think I signed Ponce for three and 30. You had to know that they, they, they saw something to give a guy three years 10 mail. That's not, that's not nothing to come back over from the KBO. And I've been impressed both with what he did over there, learning about Ponce and what he's done so far in spring to the point that even before looking at the schedule and seeing that he could have a great first two starts, I was already interested in Ponce. What about you, Joe? Yeah. I'm more interested now than I was when we first signed him because at first I thought this was a depth piece because the Blue Jace have suffered three pitching injuries in spring. Bereos, I'm however you want to classify Bieber, Fatigue, whatever. He's going to be on the IL and now Trey is savage to go along with Bout in Francis who probably wasn't going to be in this in the conversation anyway, but he had Tommy John

1:41:19surgery. So now there's no question that Ponce is going to be making 30 starts this year. At first I was thinking, okay, maybe he's a 25 start guy. Maybe he gets stretched out. Maybe it's kind of like an Eric Lauer thing from last year where you just hybrid him. But Ponce is going to be in the rotation all year barring in injury. His skill set last year in the KBO was phenomenal. I think he was not even just a Sy Young. I think he was the MVP of the KBO and he's not carrying over the strikeouts in spring to this point, but what they were, they were 36 percent. It's at 24, which I'm happy with. I'm totally fine. 14 percent swing and strike rate though. Filthy. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know if he'll be that's a pretty high bar to expect in the majors from him, but it's possible. I mean, he was 16 and a half last year in Korea. But the thing with Korea is it's generally considered to be about double A. Double A. So I expect him to take a step up because that's we've been we've been running that one for a while that like it was double A and that was triple A. I am. No, no, I'm not saying that they're majors. I'm just wondering if we need to re alter those as those systems get deeper.

1:42:21It is Japan like Kwate now and the KBO is is triple A. I don't know. I'm just asking. By the way, I should also make some for people smarter than us, which is absolutely Tim McQuown. Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin are from the MPB. By the way, these are not all KBOers for anyone yelling at their phone. I corrected that. Go ahead. Yeah, I think Ponce is for me clearly the best of the group. When you look at the team context and you look at the strikeout upside, I wanted to be in on Anthony Kay. But why are you because he was in Japan last year, which is a even higher level of competition. And he only struck out 21% of batters. And maybe part of it is that he came up as a blue J and I watched him a lot when he was struggling. And maybe that's still stuck in my head. But if you're only going to strike out 21% of batters in Japan, you're almost certainly going to be below 20 over a full season in the big leagues. And pitching for Chicago, where we acknowledge that they're better, but they're not good. Double digit wins would still probably be hard to come by. So I think he's operating on finer margins than Ponce's. And I wanted to be in on Ryan Weiss as well.

1:43:22And I'm a little bit worried about how he's getting knocked around in spring. I think Ponce is for me clearly the number one option in this group. Well, he is, but he's also way more expensive than any of those. He's at 228 K's at 406. And you know, I understand what you're saying about K not whiffing a ton over there, but he's still having 11% swinging strike rate. And he is matching that in spring. And if you just kind of do the loose 2x on that, that's 22% K rate, which would match what he did in Japan. And the reason I think that maybe K can do that as opposed to having some strikeout degradation is because I don't think he goes for Ponce's. He was a 56% ground ball guy and very difficult to square up. He had a 198 average against 244 batbip in Japan last year. So I don't think he needed as many Ponce's. I wonder if he might be able to dial it up a bit in the majors because the league calls for more strikeouts than Japan does. And maybe K can even be 23%, 24%. And then you got something. I hear you in the team context because you did say that you're like, from a team context, the whole standpoint, it's Ponce.

1:44:23But the market also agrees what about when you factor in the price Ponce at 228 K at 406? Does that change your calculus at all? Ponce for me, I'm just not super in on K. I see what you're saying that maybe he does ramp up the strikeout a little bit. It's in the world of possibilities. But I just can't really get behind it. I guess if it's 27th round, we're getting into that period again, where it's like early season schedule. If it's first two starts of the year, and I don't know, if it's Yankees Red Sox or something versus... Actually... I think it is something bad. It's something bad. Oh, I can tell you. I've got it up. It is at Brewer's at Miami for those of their first two. What spot does he have? I think he's... The first spot. Okay, so he's going to get at the Brewer's or in 235. At the Brewer's and then it's Toronto. So you're not, you're not drafting K. And I did put that in writing him up, can I say, yeah, if that's how it tracks, you, because you're not holding him for two starts to kind of see how it goes. That goes back to Nick's point about quick, quick decisions, right?

1:45:27And so I just, I can't do it. Now I will say this, if you're following Anthony K and you don't want to go for the Milwaukee Toronto, I agree. I would not do that. But if you quit himself well and either or both of those, he then leads into a KC Tampa Bay double dip that I would be more interested in. Again, both of those teams can get you, like they're not rollovers, but if K's pitching well against two good teams Milwaukee and Toronto, or at least has one really good start, I think you pick them up for the third and fourth start, maybe. So keep an eye on him for waivers, Anthony K of the White Sauce. Let's go to Ryan Weiss. I mentioned that Houston is in a six man. And that's partly to help E my transition and try to maybe try to keep my colors a little bit healthier. They're bringing Ryan Weiss back over. So that makes sense with the team set up that they have just and Weiss came over from the KBO and really caught Nick Pollock's. I know it's been a Nick Pollock episode. We've been gassing him up left and right, which you know what he deserves. He's our buddy. Yeah. Absolutely fantastic two season run over there. But the real season last year was 179 innings, 29% K 287 ERA 102 Whip.

1:46:34He's going to be 29. What can Ryan Weiss bring back from his KBO journey that would get you interested? I think it's really going to be about our like candy handle workload. You know, like one of the one of the big concerns is like is he going to be able to put up the kind of innings and innings per star to go deep enough to win games for for Weiss. Here's the thing, Tim McLeod and I were hosting one of the tout live streams together. I think for the tout giraffe and he said he was like, Hey, if it hadn't been for Cody Ponds, like Ryan Weiss would have been the MVP of the KBO last year. Oh, wow. And so I and I and I take a lot of what Tim says about, you know, these NP beers and KBO beers are because he follows them so closely and watches so many games. I don't think there's a massive upside, but I do think this is a guy who, you know, can kind of be a five and dive guy on a good team. There is some strikeout upside.

1:47:34We're not seeing it quite yet in spring. It's just a 7% swing strike rate. And he's really, you know, not getting out of the zone very much to get swings and misses. He's allowing 94% zone contact. So it's been kind of ugly so far, but a guy I'm willing to probably put on my watch list. I'm probably not going to draft Ryan Weiss and just kind of see how he goes early on. He's going to be there a number of six starter, which for them means he's going to have his first start versus Boston. So I'm kind of I'm kind of scared about that one. And his second star is probably going to be at Colorado. So this is more of a, you know, put him on your watch list and not draft and kind of see how he kind of see how he accolades early back to major leagues. Yeah. I mean, his, sorry, I can hold it. No, it's okay. That opponent quality thing I mentioned earlier, for him, it's 6.8, which is sub AA. And he's walking 17% of batters. I mean, I'm hopeful later in the season that he figures it out. I'm hopeful that he figures it out, but I agree.

1:48:35You can't really draft him. If he starts to look correct, then you can pick him up and stream him and maybe hold him. But if there were good starts there, I would say ignore the spring and go for wise. But with Boston at Colorado, that's a hard pass pretty easily right now. And then he's going to line up for like either Atlanta or Cincinnati or the game. Oh my God. The early scenes and schedule for Houston. Oh, dude. Oh, wait, wait, no, sorry. It's going to be Seattle. There's a potential of a home Colorado start in mid April. But it sounds like there, it sounds like maybe we need to be careful for all their non-hunter brown entities that the schedule might not line up so hot initially. The schedule I actually was looking at was actually the angel schedule. So your angel starters have a very brutal start to the season in their talent. Yeah. So not that people are like running to the wire to go grab angel starters right now. But the angels were still right about Boston and at Colorado, though, for what? Yeah, yeah. Okay.

1:49:35Yeah, it was just, it was just the next starts after that. So like the angels have at Houston, at the Cubs, home versus Seattle and Atlanta. That's Cincinnati at the Yankees and home versus San Diego and Toronto. Like that is oh my goodness. Three weeks of the angels, you know, I finally broke my addiction of of angel starters. Like every year, there's like two or three that I'm interested in. But Jose Soriano is jumping up boards right now, people. Listen, have fun with that one, too. And I like him and I've been a fan and I will root for him. And I will let me be clear. Every good start debt. Merce has, I'm still going to pound my chest about it because I love reading debt. Merce, I'm just not drafting him. And I'm encouraging y'all to do the same. I just don't know where you're going to play them. Like, like, that's the thing. You're going to draft like Soriano or debt Merce or Kikuchi. And like, when are you going to start them? Like, you know what the move is? Let other people draft them and brush them off these first few weeks. And then pick them up on waivers.

1:50:37All right, two guys left, very deep here, foster Griffin with Washington. Are you seeing anything there, Joe? He's coming back from Japan as well. He and K were from Japan. Yeah. I mean, Washington's team, like Washington is, is there a chance they're the worst team in the league this year? Because I think it's a decent chance that they are the worst in the baseball. They're not going to be baseball now. Well, it is. Miles Michael, this is their SP two. Yeah, there's not an obvious one, Justin. I think they're in contention for it. I mean, I guess like, their offense is still pretty good. Like that, like, they're going to be out of their pieces on their last year. They're pitching, maybe the worst team in baseball. That's, that's the problem. So it's going to be Nats. I think the Rockies are still there too. And Tupaudi put us to show something. I mean, the Rockies won 43 games last year. Like, yeah, it's what I'm saying. They still have to be there. Yeah, so it's Rockies, Angels, White Sox. I mean, yeah, we'll put them there. They haven't shown anything either or the Nats. It's those four teams, because I think the pirates, they won 71 years here. Yeah, the pirates are better and the pirates are better this year.

1:51:39Honestly, like, I don't think so. I haven't like chosen a bold prediction. I don't know if I'm going to do a bold prediction for the front page. I kind of want to say like the Rockies wins 70 games. I like that. I got say 73. So it's a 30 win improvement. Yeah, like it like, and it like, it doesn't feel like particularly bold, but it kind of it is that like 30 wins from year to year. That would still be you and you would flesh that out. I would have a commentary for me to do that, but you should ask Meg, because that is a good one. I did, uh, I did Ryan McMahon hitting 30 homers. Gotta go both, gotta go bold with it. All right. So Foster Griffin back to Washington here, they could be terrible, but any any good innings from him, uh, Joe, uh, possibly I could, I could see it like I don't mind the skill set and what he's done so far in spring is look pretty good. But again, I'm just going back to the schedule. They're going to start at the Cubs and then they're going to go face the Phillies. And then it's going to be the Dodgers and then Cardinals, Cardinals and then Brewers.

1:52:40So again, he's a guy going in that like last two rounds of main events. If you're taking him, and I'm using him in those first few weeks, so that's the problem. Take a closer. Yeah, yeah, I can't do it based on if he is the number three starter, which is where he's penciled in on roster resource. Foster Griffin wouldn't even get St. Louis, which is the only cushion active in the last five. A lot of these guys that we're talking about like with these bad early season schedules, like I'm not a big proponent of stashing, but I would much rather stash a player, I think, could be up like three weeks of April. Then like a prospect, you're saying over one of these star injury guys, like I mean, yeah, like like Merrill Kelly, I'd rather go for than like a foster great smiller or like, yeah, yeah. No, I agree because and that's why we look at these schedules here. And then we'll finish up with Drew Anderson. He is the, but he's the six man for the Tigers. That's why I bring him up. I think with mountains injury now, he's out until late May. I think that does make Drew Anderson the number six. And hey, I hope Verly Anderson is amazing this year, but he's 43.

1:53:40You know, there's there could be some injury issues. He looks at he's going to be the first man up and he's coming back from the KBO. And what I really like about him coming back is he's coming back to the team that had him before he went to the KBO. It was on the recommendation of the Tigers that he go overseas. And and see if he can kind of, you know, build himself up. So I kind of like that they sent him on this mission. It worked and he came back to the team that sent him there. And he had a really, really good season in the KBO. 28% strike on minus walk to 25 year a one flat whip in 171 innings. For Drew Anderson, 32 years old, great spring going on right now. Again, just a nice number six to know about for the Tigers that soon as they have an injury or an opening, it's going to be Drew Anderson. And I think there's some streamer viability here. Am I just being a homer or do you all see something that I'll start with you, Justin? Maybe some streamer viability because his second start should line up for either at Minnesota or home versus right now. He needs to get a spot. Oh, I'm saying streaming viability when he's first man up, first man up. Yeah, it's probably not.

1:54:41Not I'm not saying draft though. I'm saying you don't you don't think I'll be streaming. Yeah, yeah. I mean, you might be streamer viable at some point, put them in your watch list. Like, you know, like he is out of the decent spring, but it's like only 11% between strike rate. I think this is more of a relief arm kind of profile that I hope he can be a multi inning guy for the Tigers. I'm sure he could. That would be nice. And then and Manuel de Jesus was amazing in the WBC. So I kind of hope that's obviously just Tiger's fandom. I thought you were saying you were running a six man and he's going to be the sick man. No, no, no, no, he is the sixth man. I'm sorry. Yeah. So he's the first man I'm not super interested in. I just think they're going to be other guys, but like yeah, like if he comes up and there's a string of like, Hey, like, oh, he's getting a white socks, twins, you know, I think he's going to be that good. I think if he gets in and it's not like a tough matchup, like in the Yankees or something, I probably go for Joe Anderson. Maybe I'll be in a home or Joe. What do you think of Joe Anderson? Sorry, Justin finished off. I'm sorry. I just think they've got other guys who are really interesting, like, you know,

1:55:41in that minor league system too. So like I just, yeah, but they're not because I know who you're thinking of, you're thinking of Melton. And so he gets along and I don't think either of them are ready though. You know, I was like third in like at a velocity of spring. And I hope there's something there. I like him and he's put up some good innings for the Tigers. But I don't buy him at all by Joe Anderson over him easily personally. Don't you think about Drew? I mean, in this range, I would rather take some shots on other guys, I think. Who is this 440s with Chris Patek and Dean Kramer? Eric Lauer has a has a job in Toronto. Number three, number four starter, same ADP in the main. Wait, is he the one that's going to get the good starts? Yes, Mike. It depends how it lines up. It depends how it lines up. And he would take him. I would take Lauer with white socks. What did I say it was? A is white socks. A is real. Yeah, no, Rocky's white socks. Rocky's white socks. Sorry. It's the first start of the Rockies game.

1:56:42And then the last game of the white socks series, that's the number four starter is going to get those two to start. But the number three starter is going to get athletics white socks. So whatever Lauer is, if it's three or four, that's going to be interesting. No, I like your power of Lauer, by the way. I really do like that call. He, why is he so cheap when he has a job with you? I don't know. I'm just looking at all of my hands. He's only gone in three out of 19 Mayans. I don't, I don't know if I agree with you, Justin. He's pretty good. No, he's not amazing. But I mean, he's fine. He's fine. He's okay. In two percent, like on this walk last week, he's awesome. Last year, I mean, here's thing, like when you're that late in a draft, you're either looking, you're looking for something, right? You're looking for a guy who could turn into a closer. You're looking for a guy who might turn into that, like, you know, stud, like the Lucas G, you know, Carlos Rodón, when they were going 29th, 30th, that's not Eric Lauer, right? Like Eric Lauer, like, he could have a good season and be like, Hey, 120 innings of like a mid threes.

1:57:43That's great. You're crappy like that's, yeah, but that's not like what you're, that's not what you're dart throwing at late. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. Yeah, I think it is wrong, though. I'm quite I'm saying. I'm explaining why he's, why he's going where he's going. I feel you, but I'm saying like those are some bad dart throws then, because like if you're through and I'm talking specifically for the main event here, I'm not holding Hunter Barco and JR Richie. I mean, he lines up for that, like, you know, athletics, white socks, you know, two-star or like a or Rocky's white socks, two-star, like, I think he's a way better picked than a lot of these other dart throws. The only spot that doesn't work for two good starts is the five spot. Then you would only get the Rockies and then it would be the Dodgers. Oh, but I'll kick it. OK, well, you've got to start him for the Dodgers. No, I don't. Different weeks. Yeah, it's different. Oh, yeah, I would totally do that. Yeah, yeah, you would get you would get the Rocky start isolated. And then it would be a two-star with the Dodgers. But it would be, it would be Dodgers twins.

1:58:45And I would not take that with Eric Lauer. But yeah, no, I just think like, yeah, some of these dart throws, you're right, Justin. That's the principle that's being used is a Chase Dullander dart throw for what? I don't know. I just don't understand why you wouldn't take the guy who's got a job. And now the schedule's lining up nicer. But you know, listen, I want more power for us. Here's the thing. And this is something that people need to remember, right? When you're looking at NFBC ADP, yes, are these the best players in the world? Absolutely. But not all of them are. And they're not above reproach. And the ADP reflects just as many bad players as good players, right? Because only one team can win that league out of the 15 people who are in it, right? But the ADP measures that equally against 13th, 14th, 15th place. So like, yes, it is a better overall quality of an ADP versus a Yahoo ADP versus an ESPN ADP. But it doesn't mean it's right, right? There's no such thing as a right ADP.

1:59:46Yeah, absolutely no such thing. Especially when you're looking postpick 350 postpick 300, like, it's a lot of noise. I'm just about to get that one target. He allows only even gone into the six and usually the main event for the people are looking at the schedules and turning over every rock. I would have thought that they'd be on this Eric Lauer. He may be, he may be a big pick up in the first half of it. Yeah, I mean, I could see it. And like, again, he's got some pretty good track record. Eric Lauer's had a damn good career if I could say so myself. That's an underneath of a board 13 and say, you know, yourself, he was a savior for the blue. The Blue Jays do not go to the world series last year without the contributions of Eric Lauer's regular season. He was the blue guy for them. He wants, he wants some breaking news since we've been recording. What's here? Jacob Mizorowski is the opening day starter for Wow. I did. I did. I mean, I love it. I think it's great. If it announced three different opening day starters to this point of spring trading already, it was Woodruff and then it was Patrick.

2:00:48And now it's Mizorowski. Chris Taylor has opted out of his deal with the angels. There she was. Well, I didn't even know he was still with them. Yeah. Probably time to hang it up for him, huh? Yeah. The last Dodgers want to bring him back for the hell of it. Right. Like they did with KK. They bring back their legacy guys every once in a while. Just say, yeah, you can, you can get one small shout out before you wrap up. RIP Chuck Norris. Ah, Chuck Norris facts. I really enjoyed that meme. Yeah. And then it got put on to Matt Weeders. And that was really fun. Yeah. Matt Weeders facts. So I always enjoyed that. I like the meme of Chuck Norris. And I'll leave it at that. Right. Rest in peace, good sir. Or sir. Uh, I got what baseball took a bit to finish off. Oh, yeah. Carson Williams could start opening day. He is going through opening day because Taylor Walsh has been put on the I out. He's going to be the everyday shortstop to the start of season. Is this the lock? Because I'm looking at that in Rotawire. It does not lock it. It says Taylor Walsh is out.

2:01:49Yeah. It doesn't say that he's the guy yet. Oh, no. I mean, I'm just, I'm just assuming. Okay. So yeah, don't say that. I mean, people are going to go drafting him. Justin says he's the guaranteed guy. He's the guy. I agree that they should, but they have not yet relaxed. Are they going to put like Ryan Velotti? They put Taylor Walsh there for how many years? Justin, we know that their logic breaks down here. Why did they put Taylor Walsh there? Defense. I know. I know. Carson Williams is a really, really good defender. You don't have to sell me on Carson Williams. I'm trying to make fun of them. I'm just trying to make fun of them. He's going to be the guy until Taylor Walsh comes back and then he'll get set back down. Of course he is. It's not sealed yet, though. And we should not give out bad advice the day before the biggest draft we can. God, you're so fucking incorrigible sometimes. He's not locked. That's all I'm saying. They have a really good track record recently of short stops at least. At least we have that to fall back on. Oh, yeah. That lengthy track record of shortstop Tarawis. Yeah. When I saw the Carson Williams tidbit, I was hoping to click through that he had beat out.

2:02:50Taylor Walsh. The most annoying part is that he still hasn't defeated Taylor Walsh. Injuries. The only thing that got him. And I know Justin was partly kidding, but I think he's right that when Taylor Walsh comes back. Now, when Carson Williams is cooking, he'll probably go back down. You know, like spring stats are spring stats, right? But 18% strikeout rate so far in spring. For who? For Carson Williams. Okay. Yeah. Good. Because he didn't strike out a ton in the majors last year. 41% last year. He's even under 30. I think he could hold this job all year. And there's a power and speed in his profile. Like, this is a really interesting car. He's pulsing with defense kind of, right? Maybe less power, but a deeper fantasy profile. Yeah, absolutely. And then great defense. Cole from Montgomery. All right. So yeah, I just want to throw in that Carson Williams tidbit. Guys, we did it. We covered pictures. We're done with our position previous. We get into the nitty gritty of the season. Next time out. We can kind of go over. I'll figure out what we're going to go over next week. There'll still be some drafts, but it will be draft focused. Yeah, I think we'll start playing the schedule stuff.

2:03:51And we do struggle early in April to figure out. We'll do fun stuff, right? Yeah. Because we don't tell people to cut guys based on four games and shit. And we don't want to hear it either. Yes. Hey, my fourth round pick is Overnight. I also like to make sure we're doing the pod on opening day. So that way. I'll be there. Overreact. Yes. I hope Ian happens to Homer. Yeah. Yeah. The greatest opening day over reaction ever. Oh, God, I was looking at like there was like a skit. Oh, Kate Cavali's pitching on opening day. Maybe we should like schedule for that. Joe, Joe wants to watch him against Matthew Boyd. That'll be a good one. Yeah. So I got most rostered pitcher this year. And there's no playback. Maybe coming back at some point. But it's not up and running yet for for opening day. So for those of you in the discord. I think we'll do an opening day watch party. That sounds great. So I'll definitely be down for that. And plus the Tigers play later. So I can join you right away. And then hang out by myself watching the Tigers against the podders.

2:04:53All right, guys. Have a great draft week. And I'll see you guys on Sunday. We'll be on Justin's YouTube channel. I'm sure you'll post it on the on the website as well. Yeah. I'll post it on hand graphs as well. And then if it if it isn't just three hours of us yelling at us. Can the yelling at each other continuously. I'll turn it into a podcast. But you'll just have to know that a like this was a draft. This isn't like this. It's not going to be like news in it for this is listening in on three. Yeah, mostly us just screaming at each other for exactly. It'll be a blast. All right. I'll see you guys on Sunday. Take care. Peace. Peace.