The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1483 – 2026 Starting Pitcher Preview Pt. 2

0:00Hello and welcome to episode 1483 of The Sleeper and The Bust. It is Thursday, March 5th. I'm your host, Paul Spor. Join us afternoon by both Justin Mason and Joe O'Reco, gentlemen. Are we doing? Are we doing, baby? Doing very well. We are now firmly in the March, firmly in the spring training. The WBC has started baseball season. I don't want to say in full gear, but like we've hit another gear. We're at least in second or third gear. I haven't driven a manual in forever. And I was bad at it when I did. So I don't know what the best way to say that. I know like fifth gear is the highest, right? It's one of your car, but yeah, I guess, yeah, most of the fifth gear, yeah. I still drive a stick shift. So yeah, I was in like second gear right now, right?

1:01Is that good now? Always wanted to learn. Always wanted to learn. It's a good skill. I mean, it's probably a leading skill to know. That's the thing. If you're going to be driving a manual, it's going to be a car older than Joe. It is a 2000 Honda Civic. And it's not all this one. I was a year old and two. Oh, look at that. Look at that. Joe says, stands up to it. It was probably made in 99. So true, if we got the actual like dig into the parts there and check the date made on it. It is, it is on its last legs, but I've put like 280,000 miles on that thing. Bro, you get a quarter cent shot of a car. That's, that's big. Yeah. All right. We're talking pictures. It's part two of probably 30. And who cares? Because our, our audience likes it. We got comments on, hey, love that you guys go deep on all the positions. I play in this sort of deeply. Other people talking about, hey, I love that you still cover a lot of the shallow stuff. We know you like deep league and NFBC stuff, but thank you for still giving the show. We run the gamut and we're only in part two of starters. So we're still talking a lot of really, really good pictures here.

2:01But as we talked about in just the last episode, which was kind of tough for part one. We were already talking about flaws with, you know, basically every guy outside of the top four, three or five, three or four, excuse me. We were debating, you know, is, is, is Yamamoto or Stanchez in there with scupleskins crochet or are they on their own? But either way, the questions start fast and fierce. Now we go to a group of not quite aces. They got a lot of skill. They've had a seasons, but they're not being treated as unquestioned, you, you let them lead your rotation without a doubt. And that's got George Kirby, Dylan C's, Jesus Osardo, Yuri Perez, Joe Ryan from Valdes, Nick Povetta, Sonny Gray and Kevin Gosman, a group that can go a lot of different ways. And they have some different profiles here. But let's just take it in order and start with George Kirby who up for me. And yeah, I like that he's up here. This is based on ADP. This is not my ranking, but he is my favorite of this bunch. I do think George Kirby has the best chance in this group here to be a really consistent

3:02ace. He's got that amazing command and control. He's shown bat missing ability. I still think he can put it all together, Joe, for what is truly a transcendent a season. I am still all in on Kirby. He got lost maybe a little bit of development last year or developments, maybe the wrong word, just time because of his injury. I don't think he was necessarily going to develop a whole bunch, but that was supposed to be his big 200 inning season. It ends up being 126. Are we getting the big 200 inning sub three or low three ERA George Kirby mega breakout? I think it's very similar to like the Logan Gilbert conversation several years of close to 200 the year where you're kind of injured, but still in an injured year, making more than 20 starts giving you 130 some odd innings or 126 in this case. So it's a kind of a similar situation there, both in Kirby feels like a really good value to me. Now, I know like the shoulder problem will probably worry some people as we've talked about who knows when injuries are fully gone and when you can expect there to be no problems in the aftermath. Kirby wasn't quite himself last year on the surface of 421 ERA, 119 whip weren't amazing.

4:06The strikeout minus walk rate was right where it's been for this entire career. The walk rate went up a couple of points, but it also coincided with the strikeout rate going up to 26%. I think we'll all take that if he's a 5% walk rate, 26% strikeout rate guy. That was kind of the issue for the first couple of years, is he going to run up the strike outs, but the swinging strike rates being where they are now, they're not at 9% anymore. It was 12% last year. So I think the strikeouts can be there. I think we can probably depend on him for volume. And I think that the performance is going to be pretty solid considering below the surface, it was a 337-5 last year, even in the down year coming back from an injury, a 119 whip. He feels very safe and very projectable, especially with half of the starts coming at safe go, not at safe go, at T-Mobile. That T-Mobile. Justin outside of, you know, the injury was a big part for Kirby, but then what really got him and what kind of kept his ERA over 4 was the duds, which, you know, for me is a 5-plus earn run start. I just call that a dud because you can't really work your way out of that. And he had 4 of those, including a couple of 7 bangers, but in between that, he was George

5:06Kirby. That isn't encapsulated beautifully in his September, which he opened with 7 at Steinbrenner Field, which he gave a little bit of pass for because of that park, and then closed strong with 4 really good starts during which you put up a 295 ERA, 33 strikeouts, 3 walks in 21 innings. Because it looks like maybe just a few bad starts as he was battling back from the injury, are you comfortable that Kirby is healthy and ready to be, you know, that 200 inning guy? Or are you carrying some of last year's injury concern into 2026 for Kirby, Justin? A little of both, I think Kirby is one of these guys. So Kirby is not like Logan Gilbert for me in terms of the injury, right? Because Logan Gilbert and Elbow entry. And we've seen guys like, this is going to be a bad example because it's now getting Tommy John. But like we saw Pablo Lopez deal with kind of like this off and on shoulder issue early on his career. Right.

6:07And then, and never get a surgery, and able to work his way through it, right? Because it's a muscular thing in less of a tendon thing. I think George Kirby could do that. But I also don't know like, is he fully healthy? We saw those blowups at the end of the season, you know, against the, against the rays like he mentioned in, you know, against the mats, where he, you know, got seven dropped on his head. And if you were as rebounded from him, though, the next start from each dud was except for the first two. We had back to those going to be more common like they're going to be less common is what I'm thinking I'm thinking they're a product of last year with the injury for Kirby with some inconsistency. My thinking is that he's going to not have as many of those and be an ace. I'm also biased toward Kirby. I want to be clear on that. I love. I love working at the rosy end of it. But he's also not a guy with like massively great stuff, right? Like he really relies on command and control. And that to me is a little bit scarier because we've seen guys who massively rely on command

7:12and control just fall off the cliff, right? Not with one 13 location plus they don't. Kyle Hendrix. Kyle Hendrix. Now through 40 miles an hour. I understand. I mean. So that's complete. That completes separates them though. Then it's not a control focus. It's a low V low versus high V low. But I think that completely pushes them apart. I'm going to look for you. I'm going to while you continue talking to see if there's any location plus guys like that that fall off. Go ahead. I just have some trepidation, right? Like it's not I'm not saying he's off my board. I'm not saying I'm busting him down my projections. When push comes to shove though in a draft, I have not drafted George Kirby. Okay. Or at least I don't think I have. I probably should check that before I actually say that. But I have I don't feel comfortable, especially considering where he's going, taking him over maybe other guys in that same area. Now I think he's close to being like in the area where it's like, okay, he is kind of

8:17the last best guy of that tier, right? Like I'm still especially we're talking about today's here. There's not many guys in it where I'm going, well, I'm not taking George Kirby over this guy, right? Like this is this is an O C 80 piece. So you can judge it as though you were in an OC today. This is the order. So let's go to the next guy. Let's let's bring in C's here since we've talked a good bit about Kirby. And now we're going to start comparing him against some of the other guys. The very next guy is Dylan C's somebody you'd rather have than Kirby Justin. I mean, no, not really. And I think that's one of like, honestly, when looking at this list, I go, there's like two guys. Maybe I take over George Kirby here, right? Dylan C's is great for what he does, which is volume the hell out of things, right? And if I am taking Dylan C's, it's because I've already taken a top tier ace at the top or maybe a guy who I am unsure about the health, right?

9:18But I think I'm going to get really, really good results when he is on the mound. The problem with Dylan C's is, and it's kind of apropos that he is going to Toronto is he is the Alex Rios of pictures, which is right one year and terrible the next. Terrible overstates it a little bit, but he has some dips. I mean, you, a four and a half ERA is terrible, especially when you're logging all of the webs are the real killer. I agree. Like, it's, it's two four and a half ERAs with one three three and one four two with the weight. Massive volume. And usually we love mass and volume because the volume gets you the strikeouts and don't say definitely get through the strikeouts. But like when you are eating a hundred and eighty innings of a four and a half ERA or one thirty or one forty whip, like that is, that is actually disastrous in many ways. But you've been writing about some negative volume this year, this exact principle that

10:18you're talking about, Justin, where in some cases, you don't want the guys to keep piling up the volume because they're bludgeoning you. And that is a downside with C's that you are right to underscore because when you do get the rough season, the 23 or the 25, you get all those innings punching both of your ratios every five days to the point where the winds, which were only eight and seven in those two years, because he was struggling simply aren't helping and the strikeouts, the winds and the strikeouts are not canceling out the damage. So that is the downside with him. This was the pre pre last year Cal Raleigh argument, right? Because Cal Raleigh has always been kind of a play appearance, you know, hard to catch her. 600 at bats of two twenty average, you know, or Kyle Schorber, right? Like, you know, if when you when they're hitting two fifteen or one ninety seven and giving you 600 play appearance, it murders you, right? And like, yeah, great. You get 60 home runs, but like, you also lost a batting average category by 60 points.

11:20Like, so like, yeah, great, you won home runs and RBIs by a lot, but so then you're at the bottom. So like, for me, I just don't, I don't know what version of C's I'm going to get. And that's fair. Let's bring in the J's fan and see what he thinks because, again, I think Justin is right to underscore that downside. And I wonder, Joe, as you talk about C's, your new favorite picture for your team. Is there a world where if you're seeing another tough season like twenty twenty five and I don't know what the cutoff would be, right? Because you don't want to do it too early. But if we got to June and you were at four fifty one thirty five again, would it be prudent to cut C's at that point? No, I couldn't do it. You ride it out the whole way. And that's part of his downside, though, because he hasn't ever turned it around in season. He's usually like who he is from the jump and stays that way, at least, you know, on the surface here, the only reason I pushed back on the every other year thing from Justin

12:21was that twenty one and twenty two were two good years in a row. But then if you're going twenty two to twenty five, it is good, bad, good, bad, which would make this year a good one. Are you buying in on your new superstar, Joe? So I've spent several months debating this point back and forth ever since the first initial pass and tweet dropped and bodies immediately got on the group chat. Holy shit. We got to see and then it's like, we got C's with kind of some mixed emotions there. But I think there's a couple of things with Dylan C's. The fact that he does seem to alternate the good in the bad seasons means that this is the year to buy in. It's not the year when Dylan C's is the second third round pick. It is after the poor season because you are getting that seventy five to eighty five type of pick range. Now, over the next couple weeks, he'll probably move up like all the pictures, but he's been reasonably priced considering his skillset, I think. One thing that leads me to believe that he could have success other than just the alternating year thing is the fact that Pete Walker has had a recent success story with the same type of pitching profile in this Robbie Ray.

13:23The same type of guy who runs up the strikeouts, but has really shaky command, Robbie Ray came to Toronto in his first season and put it all together. The command was much better than it had ever been. He dropped his walk rate to below seven percent. Following a year where it had been, 18 percent, 11, 13, 12, it's not the exact same picture, but it's a similar prototype there with Robbie Ray and Dylan C's. And I think that, you know, of all the pitching coaches in the league, Pete Walker knows how to handle this type of profile. So I'm willing to do it. I think I have one share of Dylan C's as an SP2. I've seen people with builds where they pick five hitters and then go Cease as their SP1. I'd rather have a little bit more security there because of everything you guys mentioned. The volume could be poor. The performances could be poor, which are with the high volume. Like there are a lot of risks, but I think this is the year to buy in on Dylan C's. I mean, I think you're pretty much guaranteed volume, right? Right. Right. I mean, short of injury, which of course we can't project, I mean, five always go for the volume guys. I love the volume, guys. Yes, they do.

14:23Five straight seasons of 165 innings or more like he's been an absolute horse. You're going to get volume, you know, to me, if I'm on the fence, as I am, right? But if the list is on the fence, the thing I want people to be watching this spring is zone percentage and first strike percentage, right on Dylan C's. I want to see if we're going to see him make the gains we want in to make. He cannot walk us. Right. I agree. You can't walk the yard. And I want to see him getting on top of it is his first start. He did not do that. It was an inning and two thirds who really cares. Super small sample. But if you have a draft at the end of March and you were debating Dylan C's being a part of that plan, I would highly recommend just keeping an eye on that zone percentage and that first strike percentage for Dylan C's, because I think those will be really big indicators of his plan when he's coming to the mount. No, I definitely agree with that on C's.

15:25And I do think that, you know, if you want to buy in, there is a, there is a discount, but not as much of a discount as it should because he signed the big contract, right? That's exactly it. And counter the dip. If he was going at like one twenty one twenty five, I'd be all over it, absolutely. But right here at this point, not so much. No, that's, that's where I come out too. Let's go to Kyle Bradish, who is getting a lot of attention this off season and really been thrust back into the mix big time. He is the 17th starter off the word I actually did put Bradish and C's out of order there and I apologize. And then the way I broke up some of these next two groupings that's not completely indirect order of the ADP. What I should have said is that today's pictures are the next 20 and ADP, but the order that we're going to talk about them is not necessarily the order that would have been the more appropriate way to say, but anyway, I was actually having a little conversation with Bradish about Bradish yesterday, not with him, about Bradish yesterday in the picture list discord. And there's another guy and I who are like all the way in on him, we're willing to pay

16:27this price. And then somebody who had a little bit of concern because he's coming off, you know, injury. And I pushed back on that because I don't really think he should be treated as though Kyle Bradish is coming off of injury the way we normally would for a TJ returner because he returned last year and got six starts that I think was able to work out a lot of the kinks. Now, that happened to be really great results, but even if they had been mediocre to bad, like I feel the same way about Yuri Perez, who's actually going to come up next on our list. So we could really push them together if we want because it is Bradish and Perez who are going very high after returning last year, kind of working out their TJ kinks and now can they go for a full season? Start with you, Joe. Are you willing to pay the premium on Bradish? He's got 70 some innings the last two years combined, actually, I think it's 80 or 71 innings combined, which has people concerned. But I'm of the mind that Bradish can go a buck 75 this year, assuming he stays healthy and I'm drafting him as he, as always in the Tommy John honeymoon phase, are you concerned?

17:28So something that gave me a little bit of comfort was just looking at a couple of other pictures who were going from really small workloads to rather big ones. And the first one that popped into mind is jumping ahead here a little bit, but it's another guy who's had the TJ. It's Drew Rasmussen, who went from 28 innings in 2024 to 150 in 2025. Yep. Bradish do something similar. I think that's probably what I would expect, like pushing 170, 180, I wouldn't go that far, but I think 150. Because why would they hold them back, I guess, is my question because he's 29. He's had a 170 reached as his previous high in 2023. And I'm just wondering why would they hold them back? My feeling would be that they just don't want to push it too, too far for a guy who's only thrown 70 innings over the last two years and they would more want to slow play just to avoid a potential re-injury. Like I could see him being more of a five and dive guy than somebody that they want to go seven rate innings. That is conjecture. I'm not sure what they're going to do, but I could see them taking it a little bit easier

18:29with him, also considering that he is kind of the prize in that rotation, at least as far as I see it, if he gets hurt, that rotation is in for some trouble. So I think they would want to take it a little bit easier with the guy who should be there. Maybe counter-argument. Considered their ace, but I think I had a counter, too. And counter-argument, they're not good enough to not throw him that much. Like this is a team that missed the playoffs and it wasn't close, right? After winning the 100-and-a-fucking special. Yeah, and it was their pitching. Like, what are injuries, too, though? And I'm not saying I'm projecting radish for 180 innings, but I do see an outcome where he does get to 180 innings. And the comp I want to use is Robbie Ray last year, 2020-40, through that 30 innings coming back from Tommy John. And then last year they said, 182. And what about DeGrom as well? I was going to bring him up. And I know he's a unicorn. He didn't throw double degeneratings for like seven years and then dropped to 170. I think they're going to let him go as long as he's healthy.

19:30My bigger question is kind of similar going back to this Robbie Ray comp is, what is it going to be for him when he gets to that 140, 150 mark? It's been so long since he's through that many innings in a season. Will he have kind of a fade? I do worry about that a little bit. and that's why I haven't been as high on Kyle Bradish this off season, as everybody else is really starting to push him up their board. I'm sorry, can you repeat that point? I was doing something else and I was distracted. I'll just say that. I was gonna say, what is he gonna be when he gets a lot of innings on him, right? Like, we just, he's gonna wear it down your ass. Yeah, yeah, like Robby Ray did last year. Robby Ray was looking great, wore down as the season went on. And I think it was just fatigue and I do worry about that a little bit. Now, if you're in an active trading league, I'm fine drafting, Kyle Bradish, and then being like, okay, I know halfway through the season, especially if I'm good on pitching,

20:31I'm gonna try to move him personally, I think there's something like that. I don't mind that. Like, yeah, having him, having Bradish early and then trading. If you're in a league that isn't very active with trading or is NFBC, I'm kind of pushing them not far down my list, but just a little bit, like towards the bottom of the tier, right? So, is this a guy who take over Dylan Sees? Yes, though, part of me wants to, like even after the conversation, I wanna move Sees back up now. I wanna buy in on Dylan Sees, I really do, especially because I've never been on him before, but I think this is a guy that I have like just right above Dylan Sees in this tier. And I'm a little bit nervous just because it is. It's been, I mean, he's throwing five spring in, so far, which means he's only like 25 innings away in spring from throwing what he's throwing in the majors who he throws, though. I'm just saying, battery that's gonna run out. Like, he might, we can't. We don't know that he comes off on that.

21:32We'll be, I'll really be curious to see what happens with him. They should not get treated with kid ghosts. He's 29. What do you get from being a 29 though? I think you, I think you just go, especially like Bradish, we're talking about. If this was the Dodgers, I would say yeah, they need to be careful with him, right? And they've shown that they would, right? We know going in with them that they're always going to be actually careful. And because they're going to be so good, like even if it was the Yankees, I'd be like, the Yankees should be like careful with them, right? Because the Yankees are going to be in the playoffs. The Orioles are not guaranteed the playoffs. This is a super, super tough division. They really need to take a step forward from last year. And I think Bradish needs to be a huge part of that. So now Perez is the same, but different. Yuri Perez, again, returning from TJ last year, did get 95 innings. So three X, what we saw from Bradish, where he differs though is that was his career high. And that was it, you know, after missing a year, we saw 91 innings in 2023 and then 95 last year. But we did still see a lot of good Yuri. He did have a four and a quarter, ERA, but a 105 whip.

22:35And he had some walk issues that were very much TJ related. It just looked like standard control issues that a TJ returner has. I think he walked three plus in five different outings. And that's not usually something that Yuri Perez does. Again, I'm treating him like somebody who has a good chance and should be setting a career high in innings. Maybe not 170, like I have Bradish, but I don't see, he is younger. So the point I said about Bradish, not being treated with kid gloves. The Marlins could kid glove Perez a little bit more, but one, they don't usually do that. They let their guys go when they're healthy and good. And two, we gotta see if he can really have a full season. He's had 19 and 20 starts. It's time for the 30. Even if that is 145, 150 innings, I'm okay with that. But I'm in on Yuri Perez this year too. Justin, let's start with you on Perez. How does your approach with him differ from that of Bradish? I'm full go on, on Yuri. I mean, through 90 innings last year, the stuff was unreal.

23:37Like you said, typical Tommy John, we're gonna talk about this with Sandy Alcatara, like later, either this episode or next episode. And I just, I think he's ready to go. I think he is, I'm, I honestly just want to see him get through Spring healthy. I am not concerned at all about the run he gave up in his first two starts in Spring. What I love to see is that the strikeouts are back. I do want to see the walks kind of come under control. Walks are something we kind of do care about. But I'm not worried about that. Yeah, it's just three walks in Spring. So like, it's not, it's probably not gonna end up being a big deal. I just think Yuri has the talent to be the top of fantasy. Right. Yeah, like I honestly, like I, I had not drafted Yuri very much this year, but it's mostly because I've played the ADP game and just got unlucky with that. And I'm gonna make sure I have Yuri on my teams, you know, moving forward.

24:38Yeah, I have been getting some and I'm not afraid to add more to that stock. Obviously, I don't want to be too overstuffed on a guy who only has a max of 95 innings, Joe. But Yuri Perez looks the part. Again, lot more innings last year than Bradish. Does that change your approach with him after the TJ recovery and now going into what should be his first full season for Yuri Perez? How do you approach him? Yeah, he feels like a guy where there won't be as much of an innings concern. I get it being younger. Maybe the Marlins want to take it a little bit easy, but when he starts last year, I feel like they're gonna want to start getting their monies worth of him eventually. And you know, it's not like they're paying him a ton of money and he's still very young, whatever. But he's been around in their system for like six years at this point. I think it's time for him to pitch a full season. After what he did last year, I was really impressed even though a lot of people will look at the 425 ERA. 367 FIP, the walk rate was, you know, that's always the big thing when you're coming back from TJ, the command and the command wasn't as good, but it was only an 8% walk rate. It wasn't like he was pushing 13% or something like that. It was manageable, even in his first return from TJ.

25:40So he gets that down to 6 or 7 this year, maybe. I think he absolutely can because I wrote up his profile just last night for a year at Perez. And I, so this is all fresh for me. And I talked about how he did have those three walk games, those three plus walk games that he would have. But the fact that he's still only had an 8% like you pointed out was what really stood out to me, Joe, because despite a 94 location plus, which is bad, six points lower than average, to still only be at 8% tells me that when he wasn't having those bad control games, he was his usual self. And that's why I attribute it to just standard TJ return for Perez. So I think we sleep it. We're all in on him. I want to go to another guy in his division that I really like. But I think Justin that you're a little bit more tepid on Hey, Sousa Zara, Craig, Craig me if I'm wrong, but I am ready for him to make a huge breakthrough season this year. And I think the only thing that prevented him from it last year was really the 20 runs in two games. The two mega meltdowns that he had that absolutely just tanked his season from an ERA standpoint. He's still had a 392, which isn't bad.

26:41But imagine where he would have been if those were regular outings. I think he's got all the tools to be a mega ace. What say you, Mr. Mason? I mean, I think he has tools to be the, be an ace. Are you concerned that he won't get there, though? Yeah, I'm concerned he won't get there. I have two major concerns with Luzardo. First and foremost is his injury history over the courts with Kurt. Last year was a fantastic year for annually 383 and 2 thirds. But we have seen over the course of his career just getting hurt, random stuff. And he throws so violently I do worry that he will get hurt again. He also has, and this is the other part of the other issue, but also one of the reasons I think he gets hurt, too. He has a really tough time repeating his mechanics, start in and start out. And that's what led to, and probably some pitch tipping, too. But I think that's, I think tipping an X.

27:41Yeah, I did come out a lot during that. Those two mega is bad outings. He really has a hard time repeating his mechanics start to start. And so I think he's one of these guys that will have these blow up starts. We kind of talked about like, oh, those two starts ruined his season. And I think a lot of people are like, well, I'm just not going to include them. No, no, you have to include them, because that is part of who Azuz Luzardo is. Yeah, I wouldn't bury my head in the sand on him. He has dud outings, but those were extremely dud. I blew a toilet. Yeah, I blew a toilet. I blew a toilet cause a good way to put it. And they were in a row. That's the crazy part, right? He gives up the 12 against Milwaukee. And you're like, well, he's been so good. He had a 215 ERA on the season before that. He had back to back 10 K games in Cours in Sacramento before that. There's no world where you're not starting him against Milwaukee at home. He gives up 12. Okay, it's one bad outing. I'm not going to lose my, you know, ace to this point over that. I'll go ahead and stick with him, punched in the face again in Toronto.

28:45Eight runs. Okay, well, I got to get him out now. The Cubs are pretty good. They're going to smoke him six innings, one run, 10 Ks. He really, really ambeesied folks and those three starts specifically. And then when you put him back in for at Miami, five innings, four runs. So if you put him back in like for at Miami, like I'm sure a lot of people did, I'm sure there were other people who didn't, which means like, yes, he had a 392 ERA on the season, but he didn't for your fantasy team. That's for damn sure. No, because if you tried to manage it, you probably got burnt because it wasn't about the matchups. It was about Lazardo being off and getting killed as Justin points out the repeating as mechanics, the control issues and they just absolutely cooked him. He's had done issues in the past, Justin. So to your point about that, this is not particularly new for Lazardo to have a couple real mega bombs, too. In fact, I think he's had tens before as well, not just the five iron runs. I think he has a 10 from a couple of years ago when he was with the Marlins, but he's prone to these super bad outings. And go ahead. He had a nine. A nine. Okay. Was it against the Metz?

29:45No, it was against the race. I'm remembering a Marlins start against the Metz. Not not since 2020, so I went back to 2021, so then it could it could either be a different Marlin, or I just I'm remembering improperly, probably. But like I mean, and to his credit, like, like honestly, I, I went back to the sandy. I'm sorry. Yeah, I went back to 2020, the start of 2021 and kind of brought up this game log while you were talking. And like he, I mean, he's got a fair amount of like five iron growing blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But like the super disastrous ones were those two and then the Tampa Bay one that I was just referencing in 2024, like for the most part, like he doesn't have these blow ups, but he will tend to have long stretches where he just really can't figure out his mechanics. And, and then he gets hurt a lot. And so I just don't want to pay this price. That's, it's really a price issue for me. It's not like I do, I do see a world where like, hey, it was, hey, this was our

30:49dough. I think this is a former top in a prospect, right? Who are your TGFBI starters again? Yamamoto and DeGrom. Okay. I was like wondering who you pay for because you create all these rules about drafting pictures. And I'm like, well, who does that leave for you? Like where do you go? Because I mean, obviously, you know, DeGrom is pretty good at the pitching side of things. I don't know if you heard. I mean, you had an amazing year last year. I know you had some teams that were like really off the charts. Who was I hitting? That was a problem last year. Absolutely. And I know, and I'm not saying that being risk averse has no value to it. But again, I'm like, who do you draft if you're, if you're cutting everybody out for this that and the other reason? It's being, it's about being risk averse early, right? It's not that you don't want to take risk. You took your time. You took your time. You took your time. You took your time. You took your time. You took your time. You took your time. You took your time. You took your time. I personally see it. I think he's fine. I don't think he's risky. I feel like we did have conversation that always he's going to give us many innings because

31:49he's maybe it was all Joe. That was my goal, aren't you? Yeah. Maybe it was all Joe. I'm, I'm not super concerned with him. I cannot be the only one listening to this right now that laughs a little bit when Justin Mason has Jacob DeGrom on his team. I mean, I am sure people listen and laugh at me all the time that is part of the charm and obviously you have to draft somebody. I know you can't just eliminate all risk entirely. I don't want to write you over the calls on Lazardo either because he has flaws. Yeah, let's be honest. We're being playful on this. So I will say like Mike Giannella in the Towers mixed draft drafted all relievers. I saw that. Right. Yeah. Because there's no innings minimum in in Towers. So he kind of gained it a little bit. He did. He did. He did. He did. He did. He did. Um, well, yeah. That I was talking to him about the, the most amazing part of the strategy which nobody has tried before. The addition part of the Patrick, no, no, no, no, uh, Doug Dennis has used this, um, and Elle only talent for last two years and one, um, but why not just drop the talk to closures

32:56and then draft all the guys you aren't, that aren't going to pitch. Right. Right? Like why draft all these other relievers? You know, why not draft Pob hello pees and. Oh my god. only getting Mason Miller and Kate Smith's innings. Yeah, and the ratios. Right, right. Like, you just take what they do and then seven duds. That's, I saw it because I was watching. I was in your stream and I was in Bubba and Blooms. I was bouncing back and forth during that draft. And it actually, we were caught in what Giannella was doing. Yeah, it was clearly running the gambler. I clocked it real fast. Why would you take the duds though? Why would you take the duds? Just so nobody else can even like, don't even let go or leave her. If you get the Josh Hader year from one of your relievers, that strategy is destroyed because you have to win ERA and Whip. But like the, the lope has Schwellenbach point. Because you know that you're not, they're not going to get any stat so they can't hurt you, right? It feels like a waste of a roster spot in a way. I mean, the whole game you don't, but then you don't have to draft

33:57pictures at all after the first two until the last, you know, seven rounds. Yeah, I get it feels really risky. I don't know. The whole thing's risky. Yeah, the whole thing is absolutely risky, but you're looking for like zeroes for nobody to interrupt what I'm just using two guys. Mason Miller and Kate Smith do for you. You just want what they do. But it is risky as a whole gambit entire one of them has a bad year. But I mean, like, if one of your top tier closers in that strategy, anyways, that's bad. You're screwed anyways, right? Exactly. Exactly. Let's get back to starters of it. Iki, Iki relievers. Too scary to talk about saves. Let's talk about my wife from her. Oh, Joe, Joe, I didn't realize both of us got a new, a new stud in this tier with C-Skoneer Jays and Framberg to my Tigers. I'm excited about it. Obviously, we talked about him in the off season. And, you know, a lot was made of, of crossing up his catcher, which was totally lame. We all acknowledge that. I don't really think it held him back. I think the fact that he's older and there are questions about how his arm will age with those skills was probably more of what held him back.

34:59I never really thought he was going to get like the seven eight year deal. But I like the Tigers landing spot. They've shown themselves to be adept at pitching development these last several years. Not that he needs a lot of development. But when you already have a stud, a tweak here, a tweak there, all of a sudden gets him back to the top tier, which is where he was for two of the last four years. 22 and 24 were sub three ERA seasons for Framberg. He's still pretty good in the other two years, three and five there. I don't want to shortchange those. But he did have the walk here at the worst time. The stats were rough and the whole issue with the crossing, the catcher Justin did make him a little bit of a lesser target there for some teams. Tigers end up with him. Do you like the fit here? Is Framberg still somebody you go to as a bankable workhorse? Yeah, yeah. I mean, I love the fit here for it's, you know, really, really good park. It's a great team. You're going to get a lot of wind potential. You know, I think the defense behind him is good enough to get a lot of those ground balls. And I also don't think Dylan Dingler is someone you want to fuck with, right? So I dare him to do that with Ding or Rogers, right?

36:01Either of the Tigers catchers. Yeah, like he's not he's not doing that again. And I'm sure I'm sure like he was told like you never do that again. Like, you know, there's got to be some sort of provision in that contract where like you do something like this. We will void your contract. Yeah, I hope he handled it behind the scenes because it's soared me on him a lot. And I like Framberg, but like you just the fact the Astros never even entered into the conversation tells me I'm like, you know, I just imagine my guess in a lot of teams. So I like to do this is that it was just handled behind the scenes. Yeah. I hope that they said no way, brothers. Can you you're insane? Yeah. How dare you, you know, and I again, I don't know if they probably didn't bring them back because they're looking forward and they're trying to get younger. So I don't think that was entirely because of that. But we did see teams not really going crazy. Oh, yeah, yeah, there were definitely teams that were clearly out, right? Yeah, and it's fair to wonder if that played a role. Joe, with Framberg going to Detroit, any changes for you, positive or negative on his

37:04value, or is it more or less status quo for you? Now, from what I remember of a conversation we had maybe a month or six weeks ago, it might have just been a show with Justin and I where we talked about the Tigers' defense versus the Astros defense. Am I remembering this correctly? Yes, I think we did talk about when he signed and the Tigers' defense is a lot worse than the Astros, and that's a huge ground ball guy that could hurt him a little bit. Absolutely, I think that is a good thing to bring up. Payne is way better than even if McGonagall breaks camp. He's been showing some strides on defense. I think he can handle himself, but he's not a plus defender. And Payne definitely is. Yeah, Framberg, I mean, I think he's still relatively safe, but part of the whole crossing up the catcher thing is that people didn't talk as much about how bad he was down the stretch. People only talked about the cross-up and not the 5-20 ERA in the second half, which wasn't for that grand slam. He would have had a better ERA. Like, he honestly down the stretch, it was tough to even start Framberg. I had him on a couple of teams last year and I think there might have been a couple of weeks

38:06in September where I actually did sit him. Fiverr and Runs, Fiverr and Runs, 3-R and Runs, 6-R and Runs, 7-R and Runs. It was really dark end of the season. How much was that factor for me? Not a ton, but it's something in the back of my head. I think it's kind of interesting that the guy that he went to play for is a former manager of his who maybe knew something. Like, I know Framberg. I know his heart. No, his heart? Yeah, yeah. Something like that. So a guy who knew him, I think that's part of the factor of why he went to destroy it maybe. But I don't have any real problem with Framberg as my SP2. I think if you're doing some kind of punch pitching build and he is your SP1, I wouldn't love it so much. I think there is a lot of risk there. But as a second or maybe even a third starting pitcher on a very heavy build, I can get behind it. I just wouldn't really want to face considering kind of the lower strikeout rate, some of the second half problems. But he's been very, very dependable going back to the COVID year. The highest ERA mark was last year and it was 366. So I'm not overly concerned. If anything, maybe it's just the fact that he's not going to strike out a ton of guys

39:07and he is getting a little bit older. This will be only 133 at the end of this year. So he's not super old, but he is getting older with a lot of 200 or close to 200 innings seasons under his belt. We could start to see some wear and tear with the lack of strikeout with the poor defense. He's not a target, but he's not a fate either. I think he's a fine SP2. Yeah, and Framberg does is someone I don't mind buying his dip on, right? Like, you know, he's down pick 87 in the most recent 16 online championships. That's going to go back to February 25th. I'm actually going to tighten that up a little bit. Let's see here. Let's get the last 10 going back to the 28th now. And then let me look for Framberg. And he's a pick 88. So right in that same area, he's been living in the same zone. His minus 76, his max is 100, perfectly fair price for Framberg. Well, that's if you like him. Let's talk about somebody who isn't really moving in the draft that I've seen despite a little bit of a scare. And that's Joe Ryan. And obviously, things have gone sideways with Minnesota, losing Pablo Lopez, tearing down the team last year.

40:07Things have been an issue. And then all of a sudden, they get some news that his back is nicked up a little bit for Joe Ryan. But we haven't really seen it hold him back completely. He's supposed to start spring here soon. He had a bull pin slated to face live hitters in the coming days. That was the report on March 1st. So he may have already faced them to be honest, but I got that from the Roto wire report here. But like I said, the drafts I've been in since that was announced zero discount on Joe Ryan. People are sticking with him. I don't think that's necessarily bad. I just was a little bit surprised because of the way we as a fantasy community over react. I expected him to go down and I didn't see that discount. Joe, are you still drafting Joe Ryan at cost or are you worried about the back? No, I'll take him. I thought that he had gone down a little bit though. Like I, if you're looking at the last couple of weeks, he's like in the 80s. I thought wasn't he more in the 50s and 60s before he before the injury alert? Perhaps I'm wrong then. Oh, you know what? Okay. Rudy Gamble took him 50 in tarf, which is what you're saying. And he is 87. So he has gone down just not in my drafts. Okay, I just didn't experience the dip because Rudy in another draft.

41:10I think he took him in lately as well. So maybe that's what it is. I'm using my two experiences there with Rudy Gamble staying fully bought in on him. So I didn't clearly see the dip. So you're right on that. Go ahead with with your Joe Ryan take them. He did go down a little bit. Do you, does that make you more interested in him than Joe with the dip? Yeah, I was already interested in Joe Ryan. Now that I don't like to see it back. I don't like to see any injuries this time of year. It happened right during the middle of the earthly drafts and funnily enough, Dave McDonald took Joe Ryan right after there was an injury. News alert. So take that what you will with it. But Dave is usually pretty good with the injury stuff. It didn't scare him off of Joe Ryan. And I'm not terribly scared either. I mean, what I don't like about Joe Ryan is just the amount of home runs and hard contact that he gives up. But every year you're getting very, especially the last two seasons. You're getting very consistent ERA numbers. You're getting good strikeout to walk numbers, which is what, no, all the stats I look at strikeout minus walk rate is probably the one I put the most weight into in the last three years. 24.3 23 22.5 great strikeouts with elite command.

42:13The team context is dog shit. And 13 wins is probably going to be very hard to come across again. But it gives you the volume with the strikeouts. And he's not, it's kind of like that Logan Gilbert thing. You know, you expect maybe a little bit of a better ERA ceiling considering the talent level. Like the best ERA he's had was last year at 342. That's the homers though. That's the homers. That's perfectly the homers. Why Joe Ryan's never put up an ERA better than 342, which was last years is because the homers always push that, that floor up a little bit. And Justin, I want to bring in on that with the homers. As he gets older now going into his age 30 season, when do we get into the zone of wanting to be too early versus too late with Joe Ryan for fear that when he starts to fall, another 2023 is coming when he had a 451 ERA and a 117 whip. But then one of a few more hits skitter through. And all of a sudden, it's a 124 whip with the mid four's ERA. Are you worried about that? We saw it with Ober. Now he had less margin for error because he throws much softer. And he had the hip issue.

43:13But as Joe Ryan gets older, how do you balance the concern of those ever present homers with the fact that he will eventually degrade and skill? And I think he'll have a hard decline as opposed to a soft one. I don't worry about that yet. I don't think we're quite there yet. So then just interrupt you real quick. 2023 wasn't an anomaly for you then. The 451 ERA. I think so. Go ahead. So for sure. I just think there's one of these guys who just knows how to pitch, right? And yeah, he does give up too many homeruns. But I'm not overly worried about that. I think the bigger issue for me is the team context that Joe was talking about. It's so bad. It's such a bad. This is going to go. Who's in the bullpen? Rick Aguilera. Jeff Reardon. Taylor Rogers, baby. No, I don't. Yeah, I'm so old. Joe didn't even blink when I said those names. Yeah, no. I hate you both. So Taylor Rogers coming back. He had a close and then like, if you said, and that's like 20 years after the guys I named it, Glenn Perkins. And oh, G Perk was so good, dude.

44:16G Perk was awesome. I love Glenn Perkins. I think I remember when that was going to be the big three of Leriano, Booth Bosner and Glenn Berkins. Yep. They were supposed to be three great starters. Leriano did pan out. The Leriano Bronzer was like a swingman and then it fell on Reliever for, uh, uh, uh, who's Tampa Bay, right? Yeah. And then Glenn Perkins was like, Perkins, sorry. No, no, Perkins stayed with them. And then the boss or went, yeah, yeah, boss. I think moved a bunch. I mean, his name was Booth. I think every team should have gotten a chance to get, right? Like, his name was Booth. You got to make a guy like that. Travels are all 30, 30 teams. Just so that anyone could get a jersey with Booth Bosner on it. But anyway, Joe Ryan, I think we're done here. Let's go to Nick Pavella, who, uh, I was a late convert last year. I was like, you guys are crazy loving on this guy. And it's been a while since I've referenced Greg Martin, who we're going to have on the show, uh, at some point this month. But he was, he was one of the ones who pushed me over the edge and says, Hey, you're going against one of your own tenants here, which is I always preach about being careful with the guys who have a

45:19superficially mediocre or bad ERA, but a good whip. And that was Pavella for 23 and 24. He had a 409 ERA, but a 112 whip. And when you have that sort of discrepancy, that suggests that you can get that ERA down quite a bit. When you're allowing that few base owners, it was clearly the homers for him, though. And I'm like, is he ever going to fix these? And it's like, well, let's take a shot on the marine layer. That's basically what it came down to. San Diego, good team. They got a little bit of a, uh, pictures park. Get the homers down a little bit and see where it goes. Well, it went far. He got it down to 1.1, uh, from his career, one five. And he put up a career season. Nick Pavella did 287 ERA. Oh 99 whip. He was unbelievable, Justin. What does he do for an encore? Are you staying bought in at the premium? Or is this one where you fade after the big year because you're worried about the homers coming back? I should mention 10% homer to fly ball. Five points better than his career mark of 15 for Pavella. I'm sorry. Oh my god. Yes. Active twins reliever congressman. Honestly, we could just do the whole thing from twins.

46:22I was just talking to somebody about having them on and that we were definitely going to do reliever congressman. So, uh, but am I allowed to say who are, were you not saying who on purpose? Oh, no, we can say who I imagine boggling and well. Yeah, it's boggling. It can be boggling the well. Yeah, sure. Just yeah, just it'll be so much fun. And this is such a good year for it too. Because there's so many teams that are so many teams where you can use their whole bullpen with Minnesota being a great good call. Really, really good call. So, uh, yeah, I am not. I'm not buying at this price. I just, I think they're willing. Sorry, just to say. I think there will be regression on Pavella. Now, I don't think he's going to go back to being the guy he's been in the past, which is a career 146 Homer per nine. I hope not, dude. Right. But I do think that like going back to like a 130 Homer per nine is probably, he was really lucky. The home run to fly ball rate was 110 percent. And for for reference, he's 14 and a half percent for his career. And it really bid 15 to 16 percent the previous few years.

47:26Before going to San Diego. I do think San Diego helps him in that regard, but not as much as it was last year. I think he got really lucky. Also, state healthy, which is something he doesn't do super often. I mean, it was, well, it was pretty much a career high in innings. For he actually didn't get hurt in 2324. That was due to ineffectiveness. I made the same mistake. Thinking that he's had that he bounced back from injury, especially 23 because they put him into the bullpen. He was, yeah, he's swingman in 23. And then in 24, he didn't get hurt. He just didn't pitch well enough to get enough innings to push over 150. So I mean, I think you're good strikeouts. I think he will return you a pretty solid whip. Is your projection for an over four ERA? Do you have that handy? Give me a minute. I'll look it up. No problem. So yeah, I mean, the skills are still there. 19 percent strikeout minus walk like that is bankable. He is a stud with the strikeouts and walks. It's a matter of if you can take on a little bit of a higher ERA.

48:26I have four of the whip. 391 ERA. Okay. Still the four and a 109 whip, you said. I mean, the whip is amazing. That would absolutely be incredible. Joe, let's put it on. I don't mind. I don't mind people drafting him. I don't think this is like a real bus situation, but I think he's going to go higher than I'm going to take him. I think that's totally fair. ADP of 95 makes him the other sheet here. The 28th pitcher off the 28th starter off the board. Joe, on Pavetta, Justin's a little bit more tepid. Not out. Just like I think maybe you can get Justin to pay the max at 115 for his pick, but he's not paying the ADP around 95 and nor the min at 75. Where do you come out? Is Pavetta someone you're seeking, avoiding, or you'll take him if the price is right? I really liked him a couple of years ago, but I think the price is a little bit much for me at this point. He's kind of in a little bit of his own group here. We might have different dates that, but I'm looking over the last two weeks since February 19th,

49:27and him being kind of on his own, like the previous pitcher before him is Nolan McLean, who's like 10 picks earlier, and then he's five picks ahead of Chase Burns, but then there's not another pitcher until Strider, like 15, 20 picks later. So he's kind of going in his own little tier here. I guess you could go ahead of Pavetta is insane. No, it's fine. No, it's not. I'll do it. Yes, it is. I'll do it all day long. All right, we'll talk about him coming up. So hold your horses a moment. I've had it. Yes, it is. The whole thing with like Bloomfield, I read a Bloomfield article like a month or two ago, just reinforcing in people to look back over the previous couple of years and not just the most recent year. And Nick Pavetta might be one of the poster boys for that. If you're just looking at 2025, he looks like an ace. Look back over the last few years, there are ace-like things there with the strikeout minus walk rate, but the actual results are probably going to be a little bit up and down. The ballpark is good, sure, but I just don't know that we can expect another sub three ERA after 10 years of a four plus ERA.

50:29I think you can probably expect the projections to be pretty in line with reality here. Like a high threes, low-forced type of ERA. The whip should probably be pretty decent after what we've seen the last couple of years, but if you're getting a 39 ERA and a 120 whip inside the top 100 as your SPU-2, probably, it just doesn't really excite me enough. I would much rather just pay up around earlier and get a Ryan, get a Yuri, get a C, get a Bradish, get any one of those guys really, even though I'm kind of worried about Bradish a little bit. I'd rather just pay another round considering I think the talent level is on a completely, completely different level here with Pavetta and the guys going right in front of them. No, we needn't that stuck out to me there that you said that I'm like, why, what's the difference is Ryan? Because they do the same thing, right? They have a home run issue. Now, he's head back from the ERAs, but I don't know that I can get them too far apart in a projection. I don't want to hammer you on that too much. It's just saying, I think they're more or less the same. I have a Joe Ryan bias. I don't know if it's the Joe thing. I've just loved him for several years. He's awesome. And like, the way he works with that fast ball too,

51:30it's not even overpowering velocity wise, but it is overpowering in the way he throws it. It is something to behold. So I understand some of the concerns on Pavetta. I don't quite share them one-to-one, but I wish I could figure out, and I don't even know if it's possible. If there's any stats to look at, to know if you can tangibly change your home run to Flyball, right? Because like 10% is well below his career, but it's more in line with like league averages. And if he did do something real that can make us believe in that for Pavetta, then I would be all in, but I just don't know. And I have to lean on his career marks of 15% home run to Flyball and one five home run nine, which is why I'm not aggressively drafting him. I'm a little bit more in than you guys, but all three of us are just being a little bit cautious. I think for me, I just feel more confident that if one of these guys is gonna throw like a 350 ERA, it's Joe Ryan. I just think that just cause he's done it. Yeah. But I can't believe I've been your on it either,

52:30but Joe Ryan has consistently done it. Like he's got that one bad year, but three out of the last four years, he's had pretty much a 350 ERA. Like I just, I think consistently Joe Ryan is going to do that. And you think he'd been lucky to do that on some level? Maybe a little, he just doesn't walk eyes. Honestly, you could say no, cause his fit matches his ERA and his Sierra is actually better. So maybe he isn't lucky doing that. I do want to say though that like the underlying, like pitching indicators on a guy like Joe Ryan is always going to be deceptive. So like for sure, you like, you know, think of both Kyle Hendrix is the world. I'm trying to think of the other guy, the Bailey Overs of the world, like their like fit or Sierra never matched up, right? But it's usually the X fit that's supposed to work because that will neutralize the home run for them, but like you can't neutralize the home run for Joe Ryan because we'll give up those home runs, right?

53:31Like so, like even if you want those included though, I think that, I think that would just be normal fit would take the home run to five ball rates that he has and include those things still does well. So I'm, I'm backing you in this case and saying that the ERA indicators even say that Joe Ryan isn't just. And I will say that like part of my Paveta fear is about past trauma, right? Like for those of you who've been listening for like eight years or whatever, however long that I've been doing this with Paul, Paul and I were huge fans of Nick Paveta. And failure, we love them. And he just kept, we, he was the Charlie Brown of this show, right? Like like we kept trying to kick that football with Nick Paveta and we'd fall on our ass. And so that's why I hit quit. That's why I hit quit quit and I was out out. But I think I think Greg was right last year. And I'd be interested to have that conversation with Greg again on because I think he was right last year to buy in because the price was so cheap.

54:33He's one like 180 and the 200s. Yeah, 200s into the 180s there. So it was definitely viable. Now when you move it up 100 picks, it's a different calculus. So I, I hear y'all's trepidation. It's the moving up 100 picks that I really have a problem with. And if I can be totally honest, like I'm advocating for guys that I do like here and I have some shares. But for the most part, I just don't draft pictures in this area. This is just not my picture area. So Ryan versus Paveta, I'll gladly discuss but I'm not usually getting either. Let's end this here with Kevin Gossman back to Toronto for our boy Joe. I love God. I've been loving Gossman forever. I don't love him anymore. Not in a fantasy landscape. He's one of these guys I root for because I do still kind of have that Baltimore love for him because I was a big fan of his for. I tried to make him a thing forever and then he finally broke out with the giants and he's been pretty damn good ever since. And he was pretty good last year. I'm not even sure he's giving enough credit for as good as Kevin Gossman was last year. And yet I don't have the warm and fuzzies about him, Joe. It's kind of maybe the same way you are about Paveta. You're like, well, this was a great year last year.

55:33I see this, but I have some concerns. Maybe it's just the age. Maybe it's the babbips that he's had with Toronto, although he's gotten him down the last two years. I don't know. Why do I not love Kevin Gossman? Should I? Is he underrated? I think he might have become a little bit underrated as the guy who's going to go out there every year. And I mentioned it was cease. The Jay is target guys who are going to make 30 plus starts for you. It's like their entire rotation a couple of years ago. They only had like six starters the entire year, which was seven starters, which is fun to heard of. So you're getting the volume from him. You're getting a barring an injury. Sure, you're getting 180 innings from him. He's not going to run up the strikeouts like he used to into the 30s, but you're still getting probably a mid 20 strikeout rate around 24, 25% I'd expect. The thing with Gossman, and this was the conversation I'd have with Nick pretty much every year at F Paz was about the reliance on the splitter. Splitter, you live and die by the splitter. It could lead to good seasons, bad seasons. Nobody really knows what's coming. But the thing with him last year, his fastball value

56:36was the best that it had ever been in his career. So, and it's not like directly tied to stuff, but the run value of his fastball was the best of his career. So having a second pitch that is excellent in his fastball to pair with the splitter. And again, I'm getting a little bit over my head. This is not my expertise in the whole, the whole pitching realm in that regard and breaking down pitch by pitch. But still, having that fastball be much better than it had been previously to pair with one of the best splitters in baseball, I think can keep him successful into his mid to late 30s. And being 35, I think there'll be some people who worry a little bit about the volume, about the performance, but he is so steady. Every single year, he gives you exactly pretty much what you're hoping for. And I think if you're looking for 180 innings of a 375 ERA and a 115 whip, I think you're probably going to get that from Gosman. And he's priced, I think, really, really well this year. I'm going to talk to you guys. Amongst a lot of guys who have a lot of questions in there. He's going right beside Emmett Sheen and Zach Wheeler.

57:37And I love both of them, but they do have their questions. Right behind him is Mizorowski, Ladolo, Brandon Woodruff. He feels like the safest arm in this tier. If you're drafting for safety and for four, I think that Gosman should be your guy. The shit hurts. The splitter grip. Freakin' hurts. Yeah, it's no fun. And obviously his fingers are more pliable. And he's been thrown at a bunch, but just jamming it in there. And he's not stronger than me, but no, I'm sure. I know, children who are stronger than me. Kevin Gosman, someone you're drafting, Justin, quick thoughts on him before we go to our next tier. Because Joe said it all right. In the right build, right? I could definitely, honestly, in the kind of build I have right now in TGFBI, where Gosman's already gone. But I could have rationalized the Gosman pick in the 6.7th round because I have DeGrom in Yamamoto. So if I felt a little unsure about how much volume I'm going to get from those guys, maybe I would take a Gosman type. But if I have pretty safe volume on top, I'm probably not.

58:39I'm probably going to shoot for more upside. I do also want to just point out, and you guys mentioned, he's old, right? And old pictures get hurt more. Once you get in your 30s, there you can just go. That's just steady. You could just like lose all your talent in a heartbeat, right? I don't think that's going to happen with Gosman necessarily. But I think there is, the problem is like, when I want these kind of quote unquote, safe pictures, right? I want guys who have pretty safe floors. And there is a floor on Gosman that goes, well, he's just done at some point. Right. At 35, like, again, there's nothing in the date when I say it, when I say what I just said there about Jeff study, it's that he found with the injury studies that he's done that once you're in your mid 30s, there isn't necessarily a stair step to climb. Like, oh, we had this little Nicknack injury, and then it led to this. It can just be one big injury in your coat because your body can't recover enough because you're 35. So that is like, I saw with teammate Max Scherzer, right? We're like all of a sudden. By the way, with that. Yeah, I know. I'm super excited to watch him, bitch.

59:40Like I just like, I, when Max Scherzer retires, there will be a part of me that sheds a tear with two different colored eyes. He's so cool. He's just said, I'm cool. And we will talk about him on episode 14 of the F.E. Preview. We're going to talk about him in May. Next tier here. Now, I'm going to try to keep you guys on the guard rails here, comment or two, a piece back and forth. Good luck. Juice worked the squeeze. This is a very difficult tier to kind of navigate because ain't a damn one of them done shit yet. In terms of like a full, unquestioned top tier season. I think the closest is Pepeo and La Dolos season last year. This is where we start to yell at each other. And then you get a bunch of youngsters that it's like, I know you want to rain in and in, but there's no way you're going to rain me in on Nolan Claim. I just, I believe in this talent so much. I know he's the top of this tier. So I'm just, I'm not even letting you introduce it. No way to obliterate you on inconsistencies of avoiding risk and then taking a guy

1:00:40with 30 fucking innings under his belt. But anyway, it's Chase Burns, Nolan McClain, Jacob Roskey, Emmitch, she and Nick Wadillo, Ryan Pepeo and Cam. Oh, I was sorry, he's not at the top of the list. I apologize for doing that. He's too excited. And I'll get you your time on Mr McClain. Let's start with Burnsey, who again, the easy, lazy, simple comps is Hunter Green 2.0, right? Like it's just, it's just too easy to do that. They throw 90 and lazy. Yeah, I know lazy, I shouldn't even say, but like it's just, it's obvious. I just want to try and say, they throw 100 with a nasty slider and that's it. And that's kind of the problem, right, Justin? Is that like, what else are we going to get here? And I just, I need more. I bought in on green, right? When we talked about him, I said, hey, I opened up from last year. I'm more open to it, even with the MRI that he got. I can see the vision because he had a nice year last year. But with Burns, we're a couple years in a rears on the green cycle. And so I don't really want in right now.

1:01:41Am I wrong? Should I be in on chase Burns? No, because he had elbow issues last year. And we just saw what happens with guys who have, you know, elbow issues. Like I know everybody's like, oh, well, the MRI came back, clearing on, on, on, on Hunter Green. I'm so, I'm not touching him. He's getting zeroed out in my projection. Well, maybe not that bad, but I'm not, he's off my board. Like I'm just not going to draft Hunter Green this year. I'm also not going to draft chase Burns this year. If he pops, abs, I will, you know, what, I'll eat crow. I got no problem. I don't trust a guy who throws his violently in as hard as he does, having had elbow issues last year. This, like, honestly, it's a Brian Wu conversation, right? And I was wrong on, and that's why I bring him up, right? Because there, there is a world in which I'm wrong. I'll be okay if I'm wrong. Totally, you know, yeah. And that's kind of how I was with Green last year, too. It's like, he might break out. I hope, I didn't think I even said that in my bold predictions. I hope I'm wrong. I like watching Hunter Green pitch and be awesome.

1:02:41I want chase Burns to dominate. I do love that I, my bold predictions article came out right before the news. So people can't yell at me for saying, like, oh, you just did that because you got unique. Yeah, I said nickel dollars. The number one starting pitcher and fantasy on the reds. And it's mostly because, you know, I don't think that Burns or Green are going to stay healthy. I just don't buy it. And not to mention, like, yes, the stuff is amazing. The command and control are not on chase Burns. Like, you know, we saw that during his debut last year, 43 innings. It was very uneven. He had a 9% walk rate, but we saw abouts of trouble. The talent is really like it. That's another thing, too. Yeah. Where he differentiates from Green is he is not the home run machine that Green has been. So that does help, but it doesn't help enough to get me on board here. Joe with, with Burns, do you share Justin and I's trepidation or is he somebody you jump in on? I took him. I've taken him once in 10 drafts. Just kind of the phone phone. At SP 20, or did you get him cheaper than that?

1:03:42Oh, man, this was like November. I think, okay, okay, don't worry about it then. I think it was like 140 to 150. Like he has moved up with cheaper. Yeah, it was a little bit cheaper. Can't say that I love him. Like, I think I agree with all of the concerns you guys have. I'm just seeing his ADP inside the top 100 over the last 30 OC is a little bit concerning for me. I think you guys laid it out pretty perfectly. Pitching in Great American Ball Park with an unproven track record, considering that he had, what was it, a flexor strain at the end of the season? Now, I've heard some people say it's bullshit. They only said that he was hurt so that they could take him out of the rotation or something. I don't know how it's been rationalized. I don't think it's bullshit. Even though he was pitching, again, fairly soon after, it was in a relief role one inning here, two thirds of an inning there, two innings here. So I don't know that I fully trust the health. I don't know that I fully trust that he is arrived as a major league starting pitcher yet at this point. And you say it doesn't have home run problems. He doesn't have home run problems yet. Pitching in Cincinnati. Who knows what's going to come? And I'm joking a little bit. But in that ballpark, who the hell knows what's going to come?

1:04:43He was just over one homer per nine last year in 43 total innings. And the projections have been like 1.2. So I mean, ATC, the bat has a 1.27 home or nine. I don't listen to any of the projections on home run. They don't make any sense every year, Justin and I talking about this. Where they come up with like, it's specifically the homer per nine and babbips that I've seen, where they just like pull something out of the air. So I don't know like he didn't allow anything like that in the minors. He had 0.68 in the minors last year for a home run per nine for chase burns. And then 1.0 in the majors, where are we getting 1,2? I think it's from the launch angle he allowed last year was 15 degrees, 42 ground ball with a 46 hard hit and a 10% barrel. So maybe they're extrapolating. Out of 43 innings. Yeah, that's totally fair. That's totally fair. And I'm not saying he's going to be a home run guy. I'm just saying in Cincinnati, everybody could be a home run guy. Without the proven track record, with the price moving up inside of the top 100 picks, that's been in it. I'm going to try and find where I took him in that first draft

1:05:44I did, or not first draft, but that earlier draft. But it was like 150. He's SP 26 by the way. I think I said 20. I also want to talk about real quick way with burns in terms of the projections, right? The projections on a guy like Burns are guessing. Obviously, a projection is always guessing. But he has such little data in the minor leagues, much less the major leagues, that they have no idea what to make of them. So I wouldn't go crazy over projections one way or another on a guy who only spent one year total in professional baseball. He only has 20, 25 to the ledger. The projections pull off of those numbers way too harshly. So I would be very careful with those projections. Just generally speaking, for guys like chase burns, who kind of go through the minor leagues really, really fast. I'd be careful with 30. I got him a six pick 130. He got him a lot cheaper, and he ain't that cheap now. And that's part of the problem with chase burns, right?

1:06:46Because I understand the hype on him, but the hype has gotten out of control. When we're talking about him going 20, 30 picks higher, then literally the same kind of guy in Jacob Mizorowski, why would you take chase burns? I don't with the elbow issues, right? I think his command profile looked a lot better in their major league samples. He had a 106 location plus. So I think you could differentiate between the two and have more belief in burns. A 104 from his pardon me, higher than I thought. But I think that I think that is the differentiation being made is that is that he has a better command profile. I don't know that I agree with it. But I think one of the things that we're not talking about with either guy is the upside either. We talk a lot about their downside. They're upside two. And their upside is massive. In an eight or a 10 team league, I take that gamble, maybe not at the price necessarily, but maybe because if he does hit, it could be amazing. And you can find amazingness on your wire, right?

1:07:48Exactly. But to our own people, I'm just not. You go our right to ask like why they're split. That's my way by that much though too, right? Same division, you know, same things on a better team and a better part. Miss a better park, better park, but I think the teams are closed. I like the reds. Milwaukee was great last year. So they get an edge there. Milwaukee always is great for some reason. We look at their team on organization. They look at their team on paper and we go, oh, this is, this is your Milwaukee falls off. They got an org, man. Let's, since you already brought them up, let's go to Miz and then I'll get you to McLean, but since you got them up and he's the same guy anyway. Joe, what do you think about that with regards to what Justin's saying about like, why are they 122 and 99? Oh, it's called 120. Why are they 20 picks apart, Joe? Miz and Chase Burns. I don't have an answer to any discernible reason for them to be even one pick apart. I'm following on board with Justin now. They should be the exact same price point. I'm trying to figure it out and seeing if I've missed anything

1:08:50and I don't think that I have. Mizrowski threw more innings in the majors last year. It's not coming off of an elbow problem. He feels hard hit. The hard hit and barrel rates were better that he allowed last year. I'm trying to figure it out and I can't. I know he tracked record. I mean, Miz has walked double digits everywhere always. He's never even floored with good control, but still I don't really get the 20, the 20 picks difference between them. Yeah, I mean, does the 20 pick discount put you on, on Miz at all? Joe, are you off both? You just off really? Like I took that early share of Burns more as like, I want to have one share of Burns, but I can't say that their targets for when I'm doing my, my OCs and I got the beat Joe OC coming up in a couple of weeks. There's no chance, no chance that Mizrowski or Burns are on those teams unless they fall and Burns is not falling, Burns is rising. Mizrowski, he's only like the one 30s, one 40s, I can understand it.

1:09:50The walk rate thing doesn't bother me so, so much when you're striking out as many guys as he does, but it could still lead to that inflated whip. I think sometimes this is kind of a side note, we'll get a little bit bogged down in like 9% versus 11% when it's like two walks over 100 batters and we make a big deal of it. It is something to pay attention to now, right? Or two walks over 100, sorry, sorry, I thought you were saying two walks over 100 innings. Over 100 batters, right? But 11% is a big deal. Yeah, it is. I think each percentage, I think it's like, what's the category you always talk about just in that one percentage point is a big deal. It's one percentage. No, I think walk rates like that too. I get the point of trying to make Joe like, don't lose your mind over it, but there is a substantial difference to somebody who had an 11% in the majors like Miz did and has never been below 12% in the minors. He didn't have a single stop, not even for two innings somewhere, below 12% versus Burns who was at 9% last year and then had 5% in the minors at least.

1:10:50Is there any chance with Mizorowski? And I've heard it talked about with Burns too, but I don't think it's as likely with Burns that Mizorowski doesn't start the year in the rotation. I've heard that talked about that. They're gonna go Woodruff, Hot, Trick, Henderson, Harris. Woodruff's not even gonna be ready to start the year in the road. Yeah, that's changed. Is that for sure? It's not locked. The news is now going the other way on that Justin because I was thought the same thing and now it's tracking toward avoiding the aisle. That's tracking. He was still got three weeks, but he's now tracking the other way. So then you're going Woodruff, Patrick, Henderson, Harrison, you could put Gasser in there. I still think there's room for Miz and I don't really see the value in holding him, but they have enough arms. They could sprout who I didn't say as well. Like they got arms. They could do it. But he threw a buck 29 last year. I just don't know that they have to do that with Miz. Yeah, no, I don't expect it. I'm just saying, is there a world where he's not 100% guaranteed locked in as a starter? And potentially, I would be surprised, but they have enough arms to not rule it out,

1:11:52but I haven't seen any inkling to suggest that they're going to do that yet. Am I crazy, Justin? He just beat the British national team. Not many people have beaten Britain in a war. And so like, I'm betting on Mizoraz. By the way, did you see in that game that they let DL Hall pitch for Britain? He's not on their team. The British have said, let's get some innings. Let you can pitch for them. And you pitch to get some team. I think Puerto Rico, speak of someone from the head. Yeah, someone got someone from the Rockies or something while they're playing the Rockies. Yeah, I like that. They didn't have enough players and so they're just like, I've got to take this guy. I mean, guys come back in, right? Like you can leave the game and come back into pitch. Like, I don't worry about the sanctity of the game. So I liked that DL Hall pitched against his own team. I like this take here right here. Ooh, as I'm off of both Miz and Burns and I'd rather I've said be much, much later. That's what I do. Much, much later. That's a good call. I'm not drafting either of these guys really.

1:12:53I definitely would think about Miz at his price just because he is going lower than I think a lot of these other guys that we're going to talk about are going. Well, let's get to your guy then. Yeah, let's do it. 87, Nolan McClain, why are you fading those two but you're so in on him? Dude, I watch it in pitch last year. I just absolutely fell in love. And you didn't fall in love with those two? No, I didn't. Must not have caught their good starts. My goodness. I think that's a good size. I also caught their bad starts. The stuff is really, really good on Nolan McClain. 117 stuff plus including all of his pitches being either at 100, only one of them's at 100. And then the rest are all well over 100, including one. Six pitches, by the way. Yeah, six pitches, like a full arsenal. He has shown the ability to throw innings. He threw 161 and 2 thirds between the minors and the majors last year. He's on a good team in a good park.

1:13:53I think it's all systems go on Nolan McClain. I think he's going to end up being a guy that we're considering as an SP one next year. Ooh, no downside then. No, I mean, there's always downside, but I don't see much of it. He does a really, really good job of locating his pitches within the zone. He doesn't walk too many guys. Now he has had minor walk problems in the minor leagues at times. So there could, maybe they do creep back up again. Something I'm definitely watching this spring. I don't know if you saw his first spring start, but looked great. I'm just a believer in Nolan McClain. And I don't care what you guys say here. I buy it. I absolutely, I've already drafted it multiple times. I'm bummed I didn't get him in TGFBI, but I will continue to just be in the absolute 48 majors. I am. I absolutely am. And if you want to call me in for a crit for it, I absolutely understand. I call you in for a lot of different things. It's fine, but I do. I do. I completely buy everything about Nolan McClain.

1:14:54Before I get to you, Joe, when you read Jev Zerman's both predictions, Justin, how did you feel about his concern? I honestly literally as we were, I was just bringing him up. I haven't read the article yet. So what is his concern? His concern is about high walk, high ground ball guys. And he said, of the pitchers being drafted in the top 150, Nolan McClain will be the biggest whip drag. Like he is gravely concerned. Now it's a bull prediction, right? So this is like, you know, 5% to high, you know, top percentile outcome here. But with his control, or lack thereof, and 61% ground ball rate, he is concerned that the hits can start get because a 275 Babib, ground ball guys can have trouble with Babib. And how good is that defense over in New York? Like we like Lindor, Semyon up the middle, but Semyon's, Lindor's nicked up right now and Semyon is old. So it's not like a guarantee. Yeah, but the chat's not a great defender. Right. You got a new guy over at first. I don't know how many games Polanco has there. They're like four.

1:15:54Yeah. So that's his concern is that the whip is going to go sky high. How does that hit your ear when he talks about, because he brings up the minor league ones that you talked about where he had the walk issues and then paired with the ground balls, meaning a lot of hits that could get through. That's where his concern comes for the whip. I can totally understand that. And, you know, maybe I need to consider that a little bit more. I just, I like said, I love the dude. I really don't want to blue. Maybe it is, I'm which casting a little bit here. You are on. I'm on the train. Well, yeah, you're on the train, but you're on it. It's a full train as well. I'm trying to say, right? This is super important. It is not up here because you're out on an island. And I say that to say like you're amongst good company here being really in on this guy. There's a lot of very, very smart baseball people who know pitching that are obsessed with Nolan McLean. Like I can get that part. Could I even put in my right up of him. I was like, he's going super high. And even though I'm not in, I see the vision. And I like using that phrase a lot. When it's like, Hey, I see what you're going for.

1:16:55I might not be right there with you, but I'm not like numb to the idea of what you're even seeing. Justin, like I get it. He's just not the one I necessarily want to gamble on. But I'm not Mr. Risk-free. I'll take somebody who's got a less proven track record or coming off an injury or whatever risk factor you can say. So it's not like I'm being too prissy about that with regards to McLean. I just was surprised. When I first saw him, we got to Arizona and we saw his ADP was going to take off. I honestly, I was a little bit surprised too. That's so high. He was going, but I was also here for it. So in like this is a year, there was a 40 picks more expensive than he was in Arizona. Yeah. SP 23 Joe with no one to claim again, some 50 innings, but so much to like as Justin highlighted, six pitch mix of which he can, you know, have really unique mixes against both righties and lefties, premium velocity, premium stuff, premium swing and miss. Everything is there. Are you buying an enormous claim?

1:17:56I like the talent. Like I love the talent. Like six pitches that you throw at least 10% of the time that are all plus pitches from stuff perspective. Fingers. Pretty much unheard of. You never, like two pitches usually, sometimes three that are plus six at his age. And also, I'm not sure if you guys mentioned this. His first year as like a full-time pitcher because he was kind of doing the back and forth. He was a player at Oklahoma State, yeah. Or was it Oregon State? It was a black and orange, I'm sorry. I'm not, I'm not, I'm not. Oklahoma State. But now that he gets to focus more just on the pitching side of things, you could argue now his focus is solely on improving as a pitcher, he might even get better. It's just the price for me. The price is fucking crazy. Let's follow what it is. The price is insane. That's 87 or 85, whatever it's 80 PS. It's in the same range as Yuri, Framber, Joe Ryan. Like these guys are pretty established. Maybe Yuri's not established, but I think we all kind of agree Yuri is going to be a star at some point. To go in that same range as these guys who are

1:18:59S.P.1 caliber pitchers a lot of them. Yuri sees, Brad, it could easily be S.P.1s. I think the McLean could pop that season, but the price is getting prohibitive for me. I mean, it already pretty much is. I think it's crazy. It's crazy. It's so emblematic of 2020's fantasy baseball. Even really like 2010s is when it started. You know, you just don't get to wait around for a two, three season track record to really bet on for an ace. If you want somebody they're showing the talent, we have all these pitch models, all these great visualizations to see how good their stuff is, to really have an understanding of what they are able to offer outside of just, oh, they throw these pitches. No, here's how they throw them. Here's how they approach lefties, here's how they approach righties. You can be really confident in your decision even off of 48 innings. So even though I'm not right there with Justin drafting him, again, I see the vision. You know what's interesting though, too, is that, and Rob Silver made this point to me yesterday on the show that we were talking. Rookies in the NFBC world, on the header side, are not really as expensive as you might expect,

1:20:00considering some of the upside of the McGonagall's self-stewards. The corner's really the only one that's getting silly. They're all reasonably priced, these rookies on the hitting side. And then on the pitching side, they're not really. And it's mostly, I'm using McLean to make that point, but I think people are more inclined to push up the pitchers than they are the headers these days. I think pitching can leap faster, right? I think if you see this stuff and you see the goodness, like it can just click immediately where it seems like hitters generally have to have some sort of stair step into greatness. They rarely just hit the ground. Now, you can name some examples of sure people are screaming, you want and so to and you know, you know, we run regas and a handful of others or whatever, but that is more rare, that is more rare than the pitching. So I think you're right on that. Justin, the reason I'm not taking McLean though, is because I'm taking the next guy. I'd rather just go save myself a few nickels because you got McLean at pick 87. And I can get Emmett Sheehan at 118. So I ask you Joe first, the title of this tier, remember,

1:21:02is the juice worth the squeeze and is the juice worth the sick talking ability, Paul. Wow. The juice worth the squeeze on Emmett, she and I hate you so much. I'm fucking with you, I love you, Paul. I love Emmett Sheehan even more though, potentially. I just drafted him this morning in TGFBI. I'm all over him and I think there's a world where all of these Dodger pitchers are gonna be super babyed for all the reasons we've talked about for the last several months. Even going back to last year, the Dodgers don't really have much of a reason to play for five months of the season. They know they're gonna be good. They want their guys healthy in October. And the guys that have more of the injury risk could be the guys that don't end up pitching as much during the regular season. They're pitching more five innings, they're skipping starts, whatever. There's no reason to do any of that with Emmett Sheehan at 26 years old. Class now with all of his stuff, you can barely get 100 innings out of him, whether it's an injury or they want to keep him healthy. Class now's not gonna throw more than 120 innings or so. Otani is probably gonna be a baby to some extent. Blake Snell is already hurt.

1:22:03Who knows what's gonna happen with the rest of the rotation here? But Emmett Sheehan feels like a guy where they will push him. They where they should be pushing him as a 26 year old without the injury problems that a lot of the other guys have. There's a world where he's the safest arm in this rotation, especially costs considered with what he did below the surface. And even on the surface, it was a 282 ERA, but all the supporting metrics are good. 23% strike up might as well upgrade. Sub one whip, like there's nothing not to like here. The team context, the stuff, it's all really good with Emmett Sheehan. The only worry with me is the price shooting up. And the price, I think, will shoot up over the next few weeks and he'll be... I got him in the eighth round at TGFBI and for main events, Emmett Sheehan, probably a sixth round pick. Probably can be inside the top 100. Yeah, I think so. Yeah, eighth round to right now. Pick one 18 over the last 10 OCs. And we'll see where that goes for Sheehan. Justin, who led the Dodgers in innings in 2024? In 2024? Yeah. 25. 25. Last year, two years ago, you can just take a guess.

1:23:04You're not gonna know it. And I'm not roasting you for that. You shouldn't. Gavin Stone. Fuck you. You looked at it. No, did I get it? I don't buy it. Yes, I don't buy that at all. I've said cheating. I don't buy it at all. You know why I knew it? It's because you said I wasn't gonna guess it. So I was like, well, I gotta guess someone. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Buck 40, he led the team. This has the same feel for me. Where it's like not the guy that anybody's gonna pick to lead the team in innings and that he's going to be able to do that. Because you can't minimize everybody. And that 2024 showed that, right? Like in a year where they were minimizing most of the guys, it was Stone at 140 and glass now at 134. And then nobody else over 100. So if we see something similar this year and there's only a couple of guys over 100, sure, Yamamoto could be the top guy and up there with him. But I think she and his the other one to make a good bet on 26 years old. I don't think they have to uber baby him. Stone, by the way, is nicked up. I think Justin Robleski is interesting behind him. They've always got a bevy of prospects. But I think she and as a real opportunity

1:24:05to get 30 plus starts or 30, not 30 plus. I don't think they're gonna run him 32. But like 28 to 30 this year and be really good. I'm fully in on she and we know you have McLean just and what about Emmett she and 30 picks later. I like she and but I feel like you guys are talking about the insane ADP on Nolan McLean. I kind of think the hype is getting a little out of control on she and one, I don't know what the workload is gonna be. I don't think the stuff as good as other people do. I, you know, he had walk issues as well at times in the minor leagues. You know, he also had come and problems. Wait, we talked about Nolan McLean or Emmett she and. No, I'm talking about Emmett she and. Okay, but you do realize every single one of these things applies to McLean, right? Except for the stuff is not nearly as good, right? It's just the stuff. It's not even all issues in the minors. The lack of like we don't know his volume.

1:25:05We don't know McLean's volume is gonna be unencumbered. We think we rightly, I think that's a, well, I mean, they're bad. McLean, like I said, McLean through like 160 innings last year, right? I understand. I'm not telling you he's gonna throw 50, but I'm saying we don't know. Oh, I mean, we don't know anybody. Like, no, no, I'm not, I'm not trying to play the whole, like we don't really know anything. Are we even people? Fuck that. No, no, I'm being like realistic though here, right? We're trying to make our best percentage guesses and everything. McLean, I'm not saying. You want to do a poor bet on who throws more innings? Not straight up, because I don't have to deal with a dodger, right? Okay, we'll put that in. I do it in knowledge. Yeah, of course, but that plays into what I'm talking about. Right, right, what I'm saying. Okay, let me just back that up then. What do you have from McLean's innings? Let's just start there. What do you think he's gonna get this? No, you know, you forgot to. Sorry, I assume you always have your projections up. I'm sorry. I have them up. I have an 80 million programs open like I do, though, too. Yeah, I have literally 17 different tabs going right now.

1:26:09So I currently have no McLean for 173 innings. And I have Emmett Sheehan for 132. Wow, that's a significant gap. Yeah. And that's the gap. That is part of my issue with she and one. I just don't think he is as talented of a pitcher, right? I think McLean has a much deeper and a much better repertoire. Now, when I can say about she and is, he plays on the dodgers, which means the wind potential is through the roof. And if the dodgers do just let him go because they have to because they're babying other guys, I can see a world in which McLean which she and gets to like 150, right? I don't think you're going to project him over 150. No, no, no, no, no, that's about my max. And I'm more like they'll sell the stone 140s. Let me ask Joe a question because Joe was all questioning the gap is the gap

1:27:13because you don't think you think I'm over projecting McLean's innings or under projecting she in because I don't think I'm under projecting she in. I think 132 is a really reasonable number for him on the dodgers. But so is it, is it one, is it the ones, what did I say on 173, 173 on McLean that you got a problem with? Joe, I guess it's a little. Yeah, I'm just saying, I guess it's a little bit of both. I think I'd put them both closer to maybe the 150 range because the meds have six healthy starting pictures themselves. They're going to run a six man with a my. Could they run a six man? No, no, they're gonna. Isn't that already with a my? You mean code yeah, yeah, sorry, sorry. Yeah, but I mean half of those guys will be dead by May. What I saying good. God, I'm so racist, confusing sangre and e-my. Yeah, that was terrible. God damn it, dude. Orange, two orange uniformed teams with an Asian guy. I'm like, that must be the same. What a piece of garbage. Jesus. Thank God, you think God. Oh, Tony, please in blue.

1:28:13Help my brain fucking decipher it. Jesus. Anyway, no, but if they do run a six just, I think that's a fair push back there from Joe. Can you go 178 on McLean if they if they run a consistent six? 173. Yeah, can you still think they're going to go a consistent six? Okay, so you're going to bet against that because the Dodgers will be a sangre. They got all guys. The Dodgers will do a consistent six and maybe I will bring McLean's projection down a little bit in, you know, maybe I'll move it to like 165 or something like that. I'll start, but the Dodgers are going to run a six just they have a funny, right? Like, it does not matter. They will throw Joe Rico into the rotation to keep it in the rotation. Um, whereas the meds, I don't know that they will. I think, you know, if if sangres arm falls off again, uh, which is high in the realm of possibility, they may just go back down to a five. And I think that McLean is always going to be in that rotation.

1:29:14So I'm, I'm pretty confident McLean is going to throw more innings than him. She and I don't know that it's going to be particularly close. I would say, uh, you know, I would give you 25 innings. Oh, I'll take that, put that on there. Yeah. I'll take the, I'll take the plus 25, uh, because you're, you're, you're not considering any downside for McLean, which is fine. You got your guy. I love that. I love being aggro about somebody. So this is not like roasting just in or saying he's wrong. McLean's his guy. We all have our players and we go to the mat for them. You said you were gonna and you did not disappoint good, sir. You went to the mat for him, uh, psychologically I might add, but I respect it. Nicodello, while he's putting that on the board there, Joe, let's talk about Nicodello who, uh, came through last year. He did his thing and I don't know that he got enough credit for it. I know it was still not a full season, which again, it has to be 162 innings when I use that term full season because that means you qualify for the ERA title, but it was 157 with a 20% strikeout minus walk, 333 ERA and 108

1:30:14whip. He's also had some of the home run issues and since he and they were present last year at one three, but he worked around it is Nicodello poised to build upon this breakout season here. I think he is. It's just kind of odd the way that the strikeouts aren't really there the way they were the first couple of years. And yet he's still been really, in fact, more successful without the strike oats being there, right? Kind of bizarre. The first couple of years, 29, 28%, I'll be it not over full seasons. And now he's at 24 and 24 the last two years, which have been the better seasons. I guess the first still got to swing and miss. They'll write so like, do you think he can get those K's back? Because he's been at 24 the last two years as you point out with Lidelo, but with a 12% swinging strike, which, you know, the shorthand is usually just to double the swinging strike. So he's right there. But the, you can go higher like two to two and a half is the, is the range usually, but do you think he just settles at this 24 then because it's been working for Lidelo? I think that he can be in that 24 like anywhere in that range wouldn't surprise me. Maybe 29 would surprise me.

1:31:16But like 23 to 27, nothing in there would really shock me. Yeah, that's his range. I think that he is pretty reasonably priced like the guys he's going around. There's risk with all of them. I think you can, you can comfortably say that Nick Lidolo is, is good. But there are also the risks that we talked about in Cincinnati with the home run issues in that ballpark. He's always kind of had some home run issues. Now last year, one, two, six home or nine, 13% home or two fly ball. It's not the end of the world. It was 22 homeers and 156 innings, but it's not amazing. It's not a spare me. But he has a lot of work for the best helps. Yeah. The walk rates pretty much every year are getting better below 5% last year. Now, do we buy that he's a sub 5% walk rate guy? I think that he can be in that like seven, eight type of range. Maybe sub five would surprise me a little bit. So I think there's some potential whip regression here. I mean, the first three years, again, it's varying sample sizes, but one, two, five, one, seven, five, one, two, zero, and then down to one, zero, eight.

1:32:16I think we're probably looking at something closer to one point two. I think the ERA is relatively safe. But again, with that ballpark, you never really know. And there's no projections other than oopsie that have him going below a four ERA. So there are some risks with Lodola, but I think overall he's fine. As like a, is he an okay three? I'd prefer him as a four. Maybe he's a fine three. I'm not really excited about him, to be honest. I think he's fine, but he's not a guy that I'm going to be jumping up around to draft or anything like that. Justin, you preach some pretty extreme caution about Cincinnati guys with good reason. We talked about it with Burns and Green. They also bring in the injury piece, but so does Lodolo who did get hurt last year too, even though he did make a career high 157 endings is the same sort of Cincinnati concerns that keep you off of Lodolo or with him being a little more price than those two. Maybe you start to get in where you add after his breakout year. I'm not anti Lodolo. I actually really like Lodolo from a straight skills perspective. To answer Joe's question, though, about like why he is losing strike out in spite of the swing strike rate, it's because he has changed his

1:33:19approach against hitters. So he has the, he, if he was a qualified pitcher, he would have had the highest zone percentage of any pitcher in baseball. He is attacking the zone. He would have the fifth highest first pitch strike rate. That's a great, great. He is attempting to get out of innings quickly, right? I like that. So with that comes some upside. I think you, if he stays healthy, he will be a volume monster in a, you know, in a way that we haven't seen in Cincinnati in a really long time. And this is because he will be able to get through the lineup two times. A lot quicker than most pitchers would be able to because he's attacking the zone so much. It also leaves up a lot of his actual projection in terms of his ERA and WIP up to his defense a lot because he's going to get a lot of things get into the field that defense isn't bad behind it. So like I'm not overly worried about that, but I don't think that the

1:34:22home run rate is going to come down. I think it will stay there because you are pitching in Cincinnati and you are leaving it in the zone a whole lot. Because when I say that he would have had the highest zone percentage, the highest zone percentage in baseball last year was three scoobal at 48% 48.3%. And remember we said small changes in zone percentage means a lot. So 48% right 53.6 was Nicoladolos. So he's not just living in the zone more than everybody else. He is living in the zone a hell of a lot more than anybody else. That is dangerous in Cincinnati. This has the feeling of a very, very low floor, but also a pretty interesting high ceiling isn't this if like a good Minnesota pitcher was in Cincinnati, basically, yeah, pretty much. All right. Well, take Joe Ryan's bad season and realize that that's on the table for

1:35:24Lidola, not that that should be his projection, but that it's on the table. That's the downside. Yeah, the homers can take him up to the mid to high fours with Lidola, but great command and control with the ability to miss bats and just being a good pitcher can give him a low three. Now, I also want to point out the fact he is not a great command and control pitcher, right? He's a one or two stuff plus and a one or one command plus. So there is a lot of work here. Now, I think like I said, there is some really good upside to especially if he does decide like, hey, I'm going to switch how I pitch you know, certain aspects, right? We just don't have enough volume from him, you know, consistently to go like, hey, how can he respond? He gets Nicked. Yeah. So I have, I have not pulled the trigger on him. You know, if you're a big Eno Sarah's fan, Eno really liked him in the barf draft and was really upset when he got sniped on him. So like, take that for you. Well, I think there is a pretty risky profile for where he is going right

1:36:27now, though, in drafts, I'm not saying I'm taking him off my board. I'm just, you know, in this tier, he is not my favorite. Yeah, I don't have any Lidolo. I'm not sure I'm going to get any, not from some outward dislike. Just doesn't really fit me right now. All right. Let's finish up with Camp Shuler. I said 20 guys today, but I got to get going here shortly. So we're going to cut it at 15. We'll bring the next five in tomorrow when Justin and I talk some pictures in the morning and we're going to finish it off with Cam Schlippler, the Yankees stud. And again, we're talking about is a juice worth the squeeze because he's also part of this group that has really elevated this year in terms of price. He's at pick 132. So still cheap amongst this group. Cheapest amongst this group, I should say, but still expensive, right? Like 132, that's a real pick. He was awesome in his debut. But what are we getting for an encore? And maybe not even an encore, but his first full MLB season. After 73 things last year, Justin, is there more for Cam? Do you worry about some regression with him? I don't think he's going to put up another 296 the RA with these skills.

1:37:27But is he three and a half 120 whip? Is he better than that? Where are you at on Cam Schlippler? I like Cam Schlippler a lot. And I understand that the ERA indicator say he's going to regress. Maybe he's going to regress, right? Like he's not going to put up a sub three ERA. But like if you're okay with a guy who gives you a good amount of innings, he threw over 150 last year, or just under 150 last year. One, well, a third of an inning less than 150 between the majors and the miners last season. And can get you a boatload of strikeouts. We're talking, you know, 26, 27% strikeout rate. He was 30% all throughout the minor leagues. The whip is going to be the issue. I don't know what the whip is going to be. And the home runs are going to be an issue. I know you didn't give up many last year, but he is a right hander pitching in Yankee Stadium. So I have a really hard time believing that he won't lose some to that short porch. That being said, like I could see a mid three ERA with a boatload of strikeouts on a team

1:38:34that really needs starting pitching that stays healthy. And Schlippler, I don't think has very many health concerns. So I'm a, I'm a big fan. I know he's dealing with a back thing right now. But like I'm a pretty big fan of Schlippler, especially considering the prices of some other guys around this year. Yeah, it's cleared for his grapefruit debut. I supposed to come soon if it didn't come today because that news yesterday. Okay. So I'll be tomorrow on the sixth, depending on when you're listening to this. So Joe, when we're looking at Cam Schlipp, or you know, Justin laid out a lot of it here. Again, the cheapest of our group here, but not cheap by any stretch is Cam Schlipp, or somebody you're ready to jump in on after 73 MLB innings last year. So I worry about the injury stuff a little bit. And I read a couple of articles that were saying that, and I think I missed this at the time when it happened, but apparently Schlippler was dealing with lat soreness, starting in the midway point of 2025 that kind of fell under the radar. Wasn't overly reported on. And it's from an article on February 25th that discusses it. Now, maybe I just missed it last year. Maybe it was talked about, but I didn't realize I didn't realize it.

1:39:37There was anything now. It wasn't supposed to be major, but the fact that it still was lingering. They skipped the ballpin session at the start of camp. He's also described having some back soreness. So I'm not getting the warm and fuzzy feeling. I worry, like Justin said about the whip, even throughout the miners, the webs were routinely into the mid 120's, like even at double A, 121 triple A, 123, we're probably getting a lot of walking issues in the miners. Absolutely. We're probably getting a one, three whip or one, two, something one, two thing. If it's over one, two, five, you can't take them at one, 32. That's kind of way way too high. Like whip, man, when you're talking whip at that level, at that price point, now he can have a good enough ERA strikeouts and wins that he can counter it. But if we're projecting 128 plus and 130 for some of them for a pick at one 32, I can't do it. He's never been below 120. He's never been accepted in 2024 at high A for 86 innings.

1:40:37He was at 113 and that's the best number he's ever had at any level. Justin, I would argue that he has changed a little bit of the way he's pitched from 2024 and before to 2025. You look at that zone percentage, he jumped it up 10% between the might, between the low miners and triple A and the majors last year. He made a purposeful change. The Yankees had to make a purple change to attack the zone more. Now, this lad issue is concerning to me and I'm now currently going to drop him down my board because I didn't realize this either. So, but I think his whip will probably be in the 115ish range. And I can double check my projection on him as one 22 in the majors last year, though. I guess I'm a little bit nervous if, so you said he's attacking the zone more. That's going to be the key then. So I'm going to be looking in these last three weeks. A spring to see if he can make a tangible improvement on his walk rate.

1:41:38His zone percentage in the majors last year was 55%. That would be higher than pretty much that entire list I was, you know, talking about, right? I think it was even higher than the last guy we were talking about. Now, I'm blanking onto it was, but a little low. So like he was, he's attacking the zone, right? And in in triple A last year, that was 52.5% which would have put him above scoobal still, right? In terms of highest and baseball from a qualified perspective. Then just below Lodolo, but not very much below Lodolo. So like I, if we see him attacking the zone and we see that he's healthy, I'm still a buyer, um, Mr. Buying Scholar, then if you see this thing. It's okay. It's not every time like he's not a normal playing guy with me where I've like, I've got him circled on my board. But yeah, in some dress, there will be Scholar on my team. It's definitely hard to, you know, and you're trying to do it with my claim, but it is hard to target guys in that range that, that, that like 80 to 120

1:42:40and always get them because sometimes you're going to have somebody in there swoop you. But should there's going to be one to watch? I'm, I'm holding a little firm right now and then as spring starts for him, which is supposed to be tomorrow, I'm going to take a look at it. He's at 39 for me. So I'm not like completely out here, but I could move him up above this guy. No, no, no, no, no, no one likes that guy though. So I'm not too worried about it. That's so funny. I did not even see that you put that scroll. I literally literally just did it right now, but those not watching. He has a scroll now that says, I love no one McQueen. All right. That's going to do it for part two. Um, we're going to expand these eventually. We're doing 2025 guys, but I like deep dive in these guys. Those are some great discussions that we had and these are guys that you're picking to be your ace if you're waiting on pitching or you're two or you're three. All right. You're putting some real investment in them. So I like deep diving them. And I think the next few tears are still going to bring a lot of that deep dive with it. But gentlemen, great speaking with you. Don't go around stealing stuff on the internet. I'll talk to you guys later. Take it easy.