The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1482 – 2026 Starting Pitcher Preview Pt. 1

0:00Hello and welcome to episode 1482 of The Sleeper and The Bust. My name is Paul Spore and today we're going to find out what this sound is. You also have to like acknowledge the fact that once you have one piece of suspension, you could get another, right? Definitely. And that would just get around it. Yeah. That would be a lifetime band, right? So like, I'm not saying like, I think you would do that. I'm not saying I think you would do that. You are hearing the voice of one Justin Mason who joins me today. And Joe Eureka was on that show when Justin didn't call it. Again, you didn't say he was going to do that, but you pointed out that be careful with somebody like Jeric some pro far a one time suspendi because it could come around again.

1:02Of course, we all said, who would be that stupid? And about a week later, we found out who exactly is that stupid Justin. Nice call there. And I know it's not something you're happy about being like, no, I don't want to be right about that. Like, I want like, you know, but let's let's give it out that pro far cooked again, bucks staring down a buck 62 ban and just threw everything away. Go ahead. Yeah. It's just, you know, like, you have to, like, I don't think we mentioned these things enough, right? I agree. Where like a guy comes back office suspension. It's like, oh, he's back now. So he's going to be fine. No, he's not necessarily because if you're dumb enough to do it once, you're dumb enough to do it twice and take that from someone who has dumb, dumb things as a higher level. Multiple times. Yeah. And Joe, I'm going to spec on some things here. So this is the speculation zone. And you let me know if you think this has any merit here again, speculation zone, speculation zone. The fact that pro far went back to it leads me to believe perhaps falsely that maybe he's

2:02been doing it more than than what we just saw with him getting caught and that he got away with it so much that this was the first time that he was popped and he's like, I can get back onto it because I've been getting it away with it for, you know, X number of years I only got caught once. Is there any potential merit to that again? I can't prove it. That's just something that I thought when I saw that he went right back to it. He's a hard guy when you look at the course of his career because he's alternated really good and really terrible seasons. Right. One could come to the conclusion of maybe he is juicing before the really good seasons and then the next year he falls it up with a bit of a poor year because the, you know, the muscle starts to the gray it or whatever and thinks he needs to get back on the PEDs. Like if you look from 2018 onward, the WRC pluses, the WRC pluses, it's like aeronol on the hitter side. 107, 90, 113, 87, 110, 78 and then 139 like before 2024, I don't think there's any doubt obviously he got popped, but just seeing the improvements that he had, especially in

3:04terms of the exit velocities like on average, it jumped up five miles an hour. It was a glaring red flag, but interestingly though in 2025 when he returned, you started to see the exit velocities come down a couple points on average and the max exit velocity of the hard hit rate came down a couple points. So maybe pro far after that big year, you know, gets off the PEDs for a few months, starts to see the performance isn't what it was the year prior and thinks maybe I need to start juicing again. It's 2024. Right. Last year when he came back, he was cool. He's since. And he passed to 28 homers and that's why I'm torn because like, yeah, looking at 24 in a stat cast data makes you think that pro far definitely like he did cheat that year because he got caught. Right. We know that and we saw the influence of it in the numbers and it's not anywhere else in his profile. And that takes away merit from my idea that maybe he's been doing it multiple years and thought, oh, I can get back on this because I've gotten away with it before. But Justin, I'm just curious like, I guess you just talked about it though, you said people can just be stupid. You can just make stupid decisions. And maybe it was just pure hubris here and there's no like crazy conspiracies to figure

4:08out your jerks and pro far, maybe he just had the hubris to think, no, I can get away with this. I'll just switch this. I'm curious to see if it's going to be the same thing that he got popped for too because I think that will add to the to the discussion points. I mean, I always want to give people somewhat, like, you know, some credit, like, you know, there's always a little bit of shadow of a doubt when a guy tests positive for something just because like, you know, they're taking all these supplements. A lot of them are legal, you know, you know, like we, like we heard we've heard with like certain situations where they're like, you know, like I thought this was okay, apparently it's not, you know, we're always a little skeptical of it. But whatever it at the same time, like you go, okay, you've, you've been punished. You lost half a season. You should have learned your lesson, right? Right. And I can give a guy a pass on that. Like, I don't forget, but I'm like, okay, I'm not going to bring it up every time. They have an agency. You can send your supplements to where they can test them and go, nope, this has a band substance, right? There's no excuse. There's no excuse for a second one.

5:09Like, either really isn't. There's really no excuse for a first one. There's no excuse for first exactly exactly. So this is bad. This is, you know, facing a full year. I don't know if anyone's going to touch him after that. He'll be 34 and just, you know, the big red scarlet S on his chest that he deserves to wear. I mean, you're, you're more on on this one, man. Really, really disciplined and pro form. What an odd career he's had, right? Top prospect. All in baseball, like, the rangers wouldn't trade him for Sean Carlisle and because he was going to be too good, he never materialized into the prospect we thought he would, has a late, you know, career kind of surge and then pop for P.E.D.s twice is like a year, like twice. I mean, could have gotten away with the one. I want to mean by getting away. I mean, it wouldn't have spoiled his legacy. It still would have been part of the story, but I felt like he had enough good will to kind of get it to where again, it wasn't going to be brought up every time he hit a home run or he cheated for that. He cheated for that.

6:09I think we even saw that last year. He took some ribbing from players from people, which is understandable, but it wasn't the story every time pro far did something. Now that's always known for. So we had to start with that hitter there, but now we are getting into pitchers episode one of what could be 50 who knows. And we're going to get into the starting picture rankings. The way I'm going to do it is I am going to follow the ADP at the beginning here for sure, but we're also not going to individually talk about everyone at the very top it, right? Like we don't all need to break down schoolable schemes and crochet one by one. They're all great. So we're going to be a little bit more on some broad strategy questions with early pitchers before we get into the second and third tiers where guys, I got to be honest right after we get through these top three, the questions really start to come in maybe quicker than I think they should for guys that are going four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 among starters. So that's the first round Kings, which of course are the aforementioned Terry schoolable Paul schemes and Garrett crochet. I want to start with an initial question there.

7:11Do you have an overarching pitching plan that you follow in standard five by five waiver wire leagues? So we're out of draft champion season, doesn't mean we won't discuss anything in that context the rest of the way, but we've transitioned into waiver leagues now. So injured guys, I think you're more back on the table for all three of us, Joe, but do you have a pitching philosophy or are you more freewheeling? You'll pick a plan each time like how do you approach pitching in five by fives? So generally we're talking 15 teamers more often than not with the leagues that we play in. I want to have usually four starting pitchers in the first 15 rounds. It's not always the way it works out for me and it does vary a little bit depending on the quality of the arms that I'm getting and also where you are in the draft because if I'm picking at the back end of the draft, which I am in TGFBI, I like the names that are available to me there in the first and the third round. I started with Garrett crochet in the first and I took Chris sale in the third round just because I think at those particular points of the draft, they were the best players available

8:12and that's kind of how I want to go about it for the first few rounds, pitchers, hitters, give me the best player available for the first 30, 40, 50 picks. I don't want to worry so much about team build and if I'm at the back end of the first round there, crochet is screaming at you. If you're in the back five picks of the first round and he hasn't been taken yet. If you are in that early portion of the draft, then it's a little bit different. The hitters are a lot stronger. The guys that come back to you in the second tend to be closers unless you want to push up maybe, you know, you could take a hunter green at the beginning of the third or you could take maybe a Chris Sanchez, but he's usually gone by the second. So it really does vary a little bit depending on where you are in the draft. Generally speaking, I want four of them in the first 15 rounds, but now like for TGFBI, for example, I have crochet and I have sale in the first four rounds. So I'll take my foot off the gas there a little bit and I'll fill out the hitting for the next few rounds. If I had a lower quality SP1 and SB2, I'd probably want to take the three and four a little bit sooner, but it does really vary by draft and just where my KDS ends up in a given room. And I think that makes sense and I think Justin will have a similar answer there. So I will ask Justin, do you set your KDS in any way to execute a pitching plan or are

9:17you a pretty freewheeling like Joe where you're saying, hey, I'll land where I land and my plan will come together once I know that spot. How do you approach pitching in five by fives? Yeah, I mean, it really depends on the league in format a little bit. So, but I tend to say like, hey, I want one of the top tier hitters early and then I'll address pitching in the second or third round. Or if I can't get one of those like I didn't TGFBI, I'm going to try to get myself towards kind of the middle to back end like I wanted 11 and I got 11 in TGFBI and then all three of the starting pitchers were gone by the 11. So that's really. Yeah. Got to suck. So, yeah, I mean, I'm very similar to Joe. I look at my first 10 rounds and I want to have two to three starters out of that first 10 rounds, you know, especially some guys, at least one guy who's got some upside and then one guy who's got a pretty, you know, safe floor for me, you know, typically it's usually the first guy I'm going to take is going to have that safe floor and then, you

10:19know, maybe I'll take a little bit more risk with my second guy. I often like to get two pit, two starters in the first five rounds just because I think those guys have a much better track record when it comes to plus. So. Yeah. I think that's fair. And we're going to get into some of that what has been termed to me the SP Dead Zone. I heard Chris Towers call it that and I like that. It's been, it's been a concept I've been trying to come up with a name for that I've talked about. I've seen it read it in the baseball forecaster where those non-aces, but very early guys can be dangerous, but let's stay here with the top guys. It seems like in your first answer, they're both of you made it clear that you're open to a first round starter if it falls that way. So instead of asking you that, I want to ask Joe first any formats where you won't take a first round starter. As a hard line, not really like my home league is ahead to head 10 team league and just because I'm it's situational to I know that I focus on fantasy a lot more than the other

11:19guys in my home leagues. So I can kind of wait a little bit more on pitching, but I think generally speaking if you are in a shallower format, you can wait a little bit longer on the pitching, focus on the hitting first, you're going to get so many names that pop up on the waiver wire. There's a lot of eight and 10 team league players and they're not discussed a lot. We usually focus on 12s and 15s, but a lot of casual people in those shallow formats. If you're double tapping pitchers in the first and second round and a 10 team league, it can work out for you, but I think you're giving up a lot of hitting value if you're doing it in a shallower format. I would, again, there's no hard line like if the values there in the second round and crochet is there in a 10 team league, I'm fine with it, but I think that you can wait a little bit more in those shallow formats. I'm guessing you play it similarly, Justin, we're in those shallower formats. You want more high upside high risk pitching, so you're going to take that bankable hitting out front. Probably not go for a first round starter. Is that right? Yeah, I think it'd be hard for me in a 10 team to take up first round pitcher, especially because I know one of those guys will probably be there in the second. And more likely than not, I won't even take a starter in the first three, four rounds.

12:23Same. And the shallower formats. Yeah, in those 10 teams. Even a 12 team like, for instance, I have to be Justin Mason league, which you can find over on NFBC. It's not full. I literally just got that up today because I've been playing some different formats and I might dip into a 12 team, bro. You should dip into that one and we could do a live stream together. I know. I'm saying because I'm not going to do a bunch. I don't think I'm going to ask for a beat, Paul Spore. So maybe I just joined yours. I did some cut line. I got some DC. I'm trying to diversify the portfolio a little bit. I know cut line. That's not going to help me with like analysis in season because there is no in season play there. But I want to have my portfolio a little bit mixed up in terms of formats instead of just the 15s. So I can better understand the waiver wires too. I dropped the link in the discord day. So you can find it there. And then I will tweet it out later out later today. So we're going to be setting up the 13 run pool for those who are, oh, I cannot wait for that. That was a lot of fun.

13:23So we may actually even do a couple of them because people really, really like that. So that'll be in the discord as well. So stay tuned for that. All right. Stay with the top three guys here. Let's just go ahead and get your order then. Justin, Scooble, Skins, Crochet, do you have a hard order? You've got to give me one, even if you don't have a hard order. It's Scooble, Crochet, Skins for me. Okay. And is that based on team context? Yeah. I mean, I think Scooble is the number one. I think he is just the guy. And then I think the difference between the Red Sox and the Pirates, though, the Pirates are getting better. I don't think we're going to be good enough. But the Red Sox are awesome. Yeah. The Red Sox are really good. So that is my order. Like you said, had I had the opportunity, I would take a crochet and pick a left. Yeah. I think that's totally fair. Like you said, he was not available to you. Joe, what's your order? Yeah. I would be Scooble, Crochet, and Skins. And the team context does come into play a little bit, but I mean, Crochet was just about as good as Skins was last year. If not even maybe a little bit better, I know that might be controversial, but he had

14:25him beaten the strikeouts. He had him beaten Sierra. He had him beaten X-Fit by half a run. The ERA is what stands out with Skins, but as a whole picture, maybe he was slightly better than Crochet, but I think it's a coin toss, essentially, between them. And even, honestly, Mike and myself in trouble, I think Chris Anchez belongs pretty close in that group as well. If you look at what he did last year below the surface, I thought you were going to go a different route with it. I don't disagree with that. And that's going to take us into Christopher Sanchez. But what I thought you were going to say is that you could see somebody maybe going Crochet or Skins above Scooble. And I even as the Tigers fan, I can see that I'm not doing it. Scooble is my number one, but I'm not ripping somebody's arm off if they're talking Crochet number one or even Skins. I think it's a more, it's an easier case to make with Crochet just because the team context is richer. But even if you went Skins number one, I wouldn't beat you up. It's Scooble for me, though. All right, let's go to that Christopher Sanchez, Joe, and I'll keep it with you then. These are our should be aces because these are the guys that people are still drafting very highly, and they're supposed to give you that full bankable elite season.

15:26I love Sanchez. I think we were pretty, you know, early on him, we weren't the only ones, but there was a group of folks before he really broke through, especially in 24, that we're saying, hey, this guy's got something and then took another big step last year to have that super eight season that you were talking about, Joe. But I wonder, isn't this a little bit of a dodgy record or maybe just not deep enough track record for the number four overall starter to have just one true a season and then another really good one in 2024 when he had a 332, we are about a one 24 whip and just a 7, 6, K nine, which is actually, let's see, 20% K rate because we've got to use K rates. So where yeah, was Sanchez there with the rather light track record? I understand it, and I think it's just as a nature of the position at this point, because Yamamoto, the other guy that's in that kind of range, not the longest track record himself. I'll be at his high, yeah, less of a major MLB track record.

16:27Yeah, Gilbert has a couple years, but also last year wasn't amazing, who's got the injury stuff. None of these guys that are going in that like SP 4 to 6 or 7, even like the SP 10 range, none of them feel like sure things. And even Chris Sanchez, despite him not being a sure thing, because there is no such thing really, he feels really close to it with his command with the team behind him, with the volume over the last two seasons, I feel like you can project close to 200 innings with a good strike out rate with a low walk rate, like that whip feels really safe. He does feel to me in a group of guys that all come with risk as kind of the safest option with more upside mixed in as well, because who's to say that Chris Sanchez couldn't even unlock a slightly higher level in terms of the strike out rate? He went from 20 to 26. Maybe he goes to 30. I'm not expecting it, but it's possible that he continues to improve here. So I feel like he is pretty firmly the number four guy for me, and if somebody wanted to go out there and make a case that he should be a big four, I wouldn't give them a huge

17:29fight on it. Now, I think maybe he's a slight step below, but if you look at the Sierra, which I know we all like to look at, his was a slight bit better than skiing, his ex-fit was better. The whip was a little bit worse, the walk rate was the same. They're comparable. I think that you could make a case for a big four this year instead of a big three. I was making the case as a potential big four, but it was actually with Yamamoto that I was squeezing in there. Then he had his playoff track record pop off there, and I was like, see, I told you all, but I really haven't been pushing for that as much during draft season. It was more like I wanted Yamamoto to get his shine. The playoff's got him his shine, and now he is there at that four, five area. Justin, when you took Yamamoto with Sanchez available? He was. Let's go ahead and talk about your match up there between those two. I think the Dodgers is so damn good. I want a piece of the Dodgers, wherever I can get it, as much as I'm a Giants fan and I hate that. You're trying to win, though. I'm trying to win fantasy leagues, and we were talking before we started recording about

18:30Joe being a little bit afraid of Yamamoto giving the workload, but he could throw 140 innings this year, and Yamamoto could register 14 wins in Andre's name. The Dodgers are just so damn good that I'm going to take the shots whenever I can. This feels like a year in spite of the fact that Dodgers are coming off of a two-peat, going for a three-peat, that a lot of their players are insanely cheap this year. You're getting discounts on what I feel is Kyle Tucker, Betts, Max, Muncie, Glastow, Blakes now. This is a great year to just roster a bunch of Dodgers, because I think they're going to be the best team in baseball. Then they're cheap pitchers. You're just in Robleski's. I know Gavin Stone actually had a setback. I was kind of pairing those two together for a bit, and I love you. So yeah, I'm with you. I think the Dodgers are relatively affordable for how amazing they are. It's insane, because you remember, Joe's not old enough to remember this, but remember

19:30when the Yankees were actually good in like a sign of seeing stuff, you'd go into a fantasy league, and there would be a Yankee tax. Always. Always. You know, four, five, six dollars more for any Yankee, because they were a Yankee, and we don't get that with the Dodgers this year. And I'm taking advantage of it. And so yeah, Yamamoto's my number four, but I can totally make that argument that. That Mr. Joe leave, yeah, Joe quit the podcast for those watching right now. So I'm not going to. He's back. I'm not even going to let him back onto the show. Oh, yeah, I think you can make the argument that like, they're, instead of there being a big three, that there really should be a big five. Yeah, I can put both of them in there. I can get behind that too. Again, I think it would just come down to the track record, and then people will say, well, what about schemes? Well, the two years in has been amazing, right? Like all, like, here, I'll make the argument right now for Christopher Sanchez and Yamamoto,

20:35but more Christopher Sanchez is, we said like, after the big three, there's red flags. Aren't there kind of red flags with the big three, too? Gear crochet and Scoobal have both had arm issues. That's every part. There's no picture that doesn't have something you can bring up. But like, why is that weighed more than like Christopher Sanchez, quote, unquote, lack of track record when he's done it for two years? So I don't think it is. I just think that they're, they've been better. Oh, I agree. That's all. No, no, I think you make a good point that like, yeah, don't, don't, don't mistake Scoobal schemes crocheting in the top tier for flawless, can't poke a hole in them. That's the point you're making. I agree with that. Yeah, that's one. And so then if you wanted to bring in on the, on the back end there, Sanchez and Yamamoto, with their flaws, because Joe said it at the very outset, it's the world we live in now. You don't get guys with four or five years of elite production at the top now, ten guys deep. That's just not how our baseball game runs anymore. So you got to take guys that maybe don't have as deep of track records and you're betting

21:37on the scale. I think that's just where we're at right now. And Sanchez Yamamoto showed that as the four or five, because they each only have one elite year under their belts. Let's go over to Logan Gilbert, who I think, you know, did shatter the illusion of, of myth, the myth of safe innings last year, right, dropping just one thirty three last year after all those years with the super healthy track record. And that's just the difficult part, right? Because you would look at him and say, this guy's bankable and he wasn't. He broke because that's what pictures do. But he was still very good and the thing that keeps driving Gilbert is the whip. And that's why I underscore that he is the whip god here, because the ERA's actually never been below three twenty. Now, that's just an arbitrary number that he hasn't been below, but usually our aces have a sub three ERA season in their somewhere, Joe. Even though we haven't seen it from Gilbert yet, one, do you think it's on the table? And two, even if it isn't, is the whip in general expectation of volume, even if it wasn't there last year, is that enough to keep Gilbert as a firm fantasy ace?

22:40Yeah, I have him at six right now. I have him behind the big five, like in order of ADP, nothing groundbreaking there. The whip, the ERA is interesting, but it also comes with really, really good whips, which tend to get overlooked. And what he did last year in terms of the strikeouts was something we've never seen before. 42% strikeout rate with the good ballpark. The stuff was not as good last year as a whole in the last few years. It's been 96. So he doesn't have like the crazy stuff like a Sanchez wood, but he's got the good ballpark. I think that he honestly, you know, big three, big four, big five, he's not in that same group. We're not making it a big six, obviously, but Gilbert could return like SP one overall type of numbers. If he's able to maintain a 30% strikeout rate with his whips, I think the talent could easily pop a sub three ERA season, even, you know, two, four, two, five type of ERA in the right year with what is probably going to be decent volume, like even though he got hurt last year, it was still 25 starts, 130 innings is kind of a baseline for a lot of

23:44guys. And that was him in a down season. So I think you can expect the rebound to the 171 80 range. But I think that he's not sorry to interrupt you, Joe. If not all the way back up to 180 above, 186, 191 and 209 for Gilbert, the three years before, if Justin tells us that his projections have met 187 this year, I don't think that's crazy just because he was injured last year. Go ahead, Joe. No, that's, that's pretty much it for me. Like I think that he does feel relatively safe, despite the fact that he was hurt last year, just from all the things I've talked about the volume, the production when he is healthy, like his down year was a 344 ERA. And yes, the great seasons have only been 320. But I do think that given his talent, we can see some, some peak years coming in the next couple of years, especially in that park. You know what feeds into a safety for me and, and for any picture like this, because I think it's the same thing with Sanchez is control, right? When they have a minuscule walk rate, that makes me feel a lot safer than, then obviously like the stud strikeout guy who maybe doesn't always know where it's going. Justin, I want to pose a different question to you with Gilbert, though, because they do

24:46have one little concern here. And it is the three year home run rate, one, four and two of them last year and 2023. And then one, one in the year in between. One one and above for a, should be ace. That's a little dicey. I think that's probably why his ERA floor has been higher for Gilbert. Does that give you any concerns going into his age 29 season here? It gives me a little concern because we did see it like when he returned from the injury. He had like a 152 or 155 yard or a home reprine. And that, that scares me because like, I'm not sure that Logan Gilbert is healthy. And that is reason for me that, you know, like, I'm not drafting Logan Gilbert where he is. I love the dude. He was my number two starting pitcher before he got hurt last year, right? That was your guy. That was my dude. He was the guy I was saying everybody, hey, this is, this is about as safe as you can come. But reason we say about as safe is because there's no pitcher that's going to be completely safe. And I just can't pull the trigger where he's going.

25:49Like there's just too many other guys like I'd rather have, and this is going to sound weird for people who've been listening to the podcast for any number of times. I'd rather have Brian Wu. I knew you're going to say this teammate who I was, I've been, because he threw the innings last year. Like he got, he was healthy. And I just, you know, now I'm not necessarily like jumping all over Brian Wu like either. But like, if I'm going to take one of the two, well, then he, I'm the issue too with the pack. I know he pitched in the playoffs. So it was, well, yeah, I mean, but he had the, I'm more worried about the previous elbow injury. Right. These guys who have elbow issues and then don't get them surgically repaired, scare the crap out of me. And I don't, I don't draft them because I do think it, yeah, I think it's a taking time bomb. Just like you were making a noise. Yeah. I, I think that is definitely a concern to have there. It is funny though, because people would, if they listen last year to hear you go woo over Gilbert, like, did you kill Justin in replacement with somebody who doesn't even know the right code to say to emulate Justin because nobody would say that.

26:50You know, I understand that it has changed for you with those two. We're going to get to woo in a moment. I want to go to Hunter Brown first. And I'm going to stay with you, Justin. He's had a Sanchezian evolution with the two full seasons in a row. And then the one elite one. So he was pretty good in 24, like, both of them kind of, I called that a platform season year. They kind of jumped up a level. They showed that they had some real solid skills and that they could be the ace. And then both of them did it last year. Brown isn't quite getting as much love as Sanchez, but he's hardly being forgotten there as Houston's ace. Where do you come out with Hunter Brown this year, Justin, because, again, he's going to be a little bit cheaper than those other guys. He's done it. Houston's still pretty good. Are you in on Brown as an ace? I think Brown is an ace. I think the stuff is really, really good. You know, yeah, he doesn't have the best, you know, control and command every start to start, but he's a horse. I think he's going to throw like 190 really, really good innings. And I could see a world where the strikeout rate continues to improve. He plays on a good team in Houston.

27:52I don't know that there's any real. There's some people who are expressing in the industry concerns on Hunter Brown. I don't really get them personally. I think this guy is just a horse and he's my number six starting pitcher. Yeah. I don't really share those concerns either with Brown, Joe. I'm a huge Hunter Brown fan. And I got him right there and locked step with Sanchez Gilbert and Yamamoto. That's another quartet for me. To the top three in my brain, I go Sanchez Yamamoto Gilbert Brown and throw a woo in there too. Sorry. So then that next five for me becomes a grouping. I think Brown is every bit as good as these other guys. Do you have him a cut below or right there with him? I have him at nine. I have a couple. So we'll cut below, but not. You're not there. So tell us how you're feeling. Yeah, I'd still be fine with him as an ace. The only thing that gets him a little bit lower is just the swinging strike rate. That's pretty much what it comes down to and just the possibility that he's a 23, 24 percent strikeout rate guy. I don't think it's necessarily likely, but he's at 10, 11 percent swinging strike rate

28:54where I feel more confident in the strikeouts. I'm going to get from the rest of that top tier. The other thing that's more of a soft factor is I don't think Houston is as good as they've been the last couple of years and Hater potentially being hurt. Might not cost him a ton of loss, a ton of wins, but I don't know. Every win matters, though, right? Like when we have so few for guys. Yeah. Every year when I do projections, like if I adjust someone by one or two wins, it rockets their price. Right. So even that's a good point to bring up, though, Joe, because if Hunter Brown is, you know, 12 instead of 14 or whatever on the dubs, that can be a big difference and enough of a soft factor to go to a Logan Gilbert. Yeah. I think the Astros are not quite as good as they've been as a whole, you know, this year as opposed to the last few seasons, that dynasty is kind of at the tail end at this point. And if Hater's hurt, I think Brian and Breu is a really good alternative and probably wouldn't miss much of a beat. But it's just the, you know, it's like you said, one of those soft factors. If I'm comparing him to the other guys I like in the range, the sales, you know, the

29:57Gilberts, that's kind of one small thing for me. And if I can add something, sorry, go ahead and say, like this one thing strike rate in the team context. That's what gets him a notch below. And if I can add to the Breu Hater thing, it's not even about a Breu, like you said, I think he can handle the ninth quite well, but it lessons the bridge. So now the starter, you know, now Brown has a bigger burden. Can he go in extra innings so that you're not relying on Stephen O'Curt, Bennett, Sousa, Inno de las Santos, Jaden Murray, who the hell are these players? They're congressmen, obviously. So no, those are good points to bring up and that's why you have Brown down at nine. I do still like him a couple takes higher, but those soft factors make sense. And the swinging strike rate Justin and I both see more like he has been kind of hovering around 10 11. I think he's got the stuff to be better because it's always been a little bit further from his strikeout rate than his swinging strike rate would suggest. Go ahead, Justin. The soft plus is really good on Hunter Brown. He's got four pitches over a hundred, including a one 12 on the fastball and a one 15 on

31:02the sinker. Not worry about. Yeah. I need to push that that swinging strike up to make his strikeout rate feel more bankable. All right, let's go to Wu. We will start with Joe because Justin gave some initial thoughts on him that he's more in this year than he has been because he did stay mostly healthy. He made his 30 turns. It was unfortunately, he spoiled a little bit at the end because he didn't get to pitch much in the playoffs when Seattle needed him most fantasy folks. Our season was done. Well, not Joe's. He was busy winning a fantasy, a postseason contest. I don't want to say that, but the regular fantasy season was done. So maybe people don't remember that as much, but he did end the season a little bit nicked up, pitching, you know, inconsistently in the playoffs there, but just an unbelievable season that showed that he could take the 30 turns. And I know for a lot of people, especially, you know, I give Justin a really hard time about his injury, you know, avoidance. But once a guy shows it, he's open, like, you know, okay, you get the stamp. You've done the 30. I've seen it. You can believe it more. And that's what Wu did.

32:03Joe, do you think he's got another 30 starts in for Brian Wu? Because I think that's what you need when you're drafting. Maybe not need, but that's what you're really wanting when you're paying the premium now on Wu. Yeah, I really like him, but I do worry, I think a little bit more than you guys do about the injury possibility. It was forearm inflammation in 2023. It was forearm inflammation in 2024. Last year, he stayed healthy until the end of the year and then it was packed tightness, came back in the playoffs and then didn't look very good in the playoffs. That was shaking. Did get to him. Now it's for innings. Don't read too much into that over two appearances. It's not, it's not much you can read from that, but it's enough to push him down a little bit for me. He's at 11. I have him at 11. So it's not really down. He'd still be an SP one, but I don't like him more than some of the other guys we've talked about today. Like, I've all the guys we've talked about today so far. He's the lowest for me. I just worry a little bit about the injury, possibility popping back up and, you know, throwing an entire healthy season definitely alleviates some of those concerns, but just ending it not healthy, it does worry me just the touch.

33:05I'd still take him as an SP one, but I wouldn't have that warm fuzzy feeling about it as I would have, you know, if we talked in, you know, August of last year. Right. Cause that's when he was peaking. Things were going super well. Justin, when he threw 121 innings the year before Brian Wu put up a 289 and 090 with right. So you didn't miss out too much, even when he wasn't pitching it. I can't say that even if he throws 120, he's going to do those numbers again, because those are pretty exquisite. But do you feel pretty good, you know, to the best that you can, that if even if we miss this time that you're still going to be getting triple digit innings of quality work, like do you believe in his work when healthy enough that you would still take him even with the injury risk looming overhead for who I think I would take him in a scenario where I was already at an ace on my roster. So as your second and your strategy coaching type of thing, or or I'm about to take another one, right? Like if I go Wu Logan Webb, I'm feeling great, right? Right. I like the double dip combo there.

34:06That does make sense to me. I want someone who I feel really good about the volume because the problem with a guy like Wu is if these elbow issues dumb do come back and like I said, I don't like these guys typically who have had real elbow issues and then never got in the dress, right? So like the problem is like he could throw six innings and that's when it happens. You just don't know when it happens, right? And so like I would if I was going to take Wu and I am open to it this year, like I haven't been in years past, I would definitely double tap a starter somewhere, right? Like I, you know, even like a hundred brown and blue, right? If I'm on like the three, four turn or something like that and both of those guys are available. Yeah, like I'll do something like that. But for the most part, I'm probably not going to end up with Wu because it's going to be a really, really hard area to make that work. Yeah, I think that's understandable and people that are like lurking around Wu and maybe want to go for somebody who's done it with a little bit more of a track record, which

35:06is difficult to find in this area, but I can understand it. Maybe you pivot to this guy, but then you're taking a 37 year old. Chris, say, I want to stay with you on this one, Justin. We all knew that betting on him to repeat the Saiyong would be a bad idea. You got to bring some numbers down from that, namely in the volume. And he did go from 178 to 126 innings, but he was basically the same Saiyong picture. 250 ADRA 107 whip was barely off of the 238 101 that he put up the year before for Chris sale. The simple fact is he is unbelievably elite these last two years, but he's 37. So how do you balance the two, Justin and answer sale first, but then a philosophical question, where are you on the jumping off a year too early, even at the risk of being wrong, just because you don't want to be caught holding the bag on somebody who has the red flags of a sale, which is all of his injury track record and age 37. So sale first and then we'll talk to the philosophical. I mean, I want to point out that like a lot of sales injury track record has been weird.

36:08It's been weird stuff. Like didn't he like fall off a car or something like or a fall of bike, fall off a bike, you got hit and remember when he got blasted in the hand by the back or that broken shit. So yeah. So like, I'll just put the wounds I think over there. Yeah. Like now he does every time he John on his, you know, ledger and he was not, he was not able to pitch in the postseason last year, right? And with a back issue. So all those things being said, I still think Chris sale is a really, really good pitcher. But I want to do something very similar to what I just talked about with who, right? And I don't want to punch. Yeah, I don't want it to be woo in sale. Let's let me know that it's scary. It should not be sale in who or sale in DeGrom or sale in Reagan's, right? It should be like a sale in Logan Webb. It should be a sale in, you know, all schemes in the first, right? Like these guys that I feel are really, really good work or skies. And then you add in the upside of sale and go, okay, now I've got a stack rotation

37:10because if something happens, then I still have a pretty damn good start in my rotation, right? So that being said, I got no problem. Like I was, I'm literally on deck right now and in TGFBI. And I'm going to take a closer here, but had one of those two guys or both of those guys that I was thinking about taking gone already. Chris sale would have been my pick in the third round. So to go with your Yamamoto, right? Yeah, to go with Yamamoto. So like I've got like the, the stable ace and then I'm adding in another, you know, high upside guy in Chris sale. So it got no problem with that kind of pick. Joe, where do you come out on that philosophical debate of being a year too early and staying away from a guy? Because you think he could blow up and that way you're not caught holding the bag versus, hey, Chris sale's been in lead. I'll take the elite guy and if I get caught holding the bag, big deal. Where do you, where do you balance that or how do you balance that rather? I think with pitchers, we're going to get caught holding so many bags anyway with injuries that I don't mind the age factor in general. If it's like a position player, then I'd be more willing if the guy is 37, 38 years old

38:15coming off of a big year. You know, like the Freddie Freeman type of question you want to get out the early. I'm fine with going either way, depending on, and I know that's a total cop out, but I don't really have a hard line position on it. I'm fine with it if it fits your team build. If you're in a position where Freddie Freeman works for you, then I'm fine with it. Even if there is some cliff factor, and I think it's the same thing with Chris sale. Like when he returned last year, his final five, I think it was five starts when he returned and they were like peak sale type of stuff that he couldn't pitch in the playoffs, which is a little bit of a concern, but at least it's not, it wasn't an arm injury. It was the back. I still trust him. I took him in TGFBI in the third round. He's my second starting pitcher. As I mentioned earlier, it's, it's crochet and then it's, it's sale. So I'm kind of forgot that he said that. No, no, it's all good. I talked about so much stuff, but I, I like him as a two more than a one, which I think when you guys said already about sale, or you said it about one of the guys here. Yeah. And Justin agrees that he would, if he took Wu or sale, he's got it, either have a second guy already, or he's going to get that second guy immediately after.

39:18He's going to cushion both of them with another arm there and hopes that, you know, at least one of them stays super healthy and has a great season. The aim doesn't worry me here with him. Okay. I think I agree with that. Right? Because he's so good. Yeah. Like his stuff, since we started tracking stuff last year was the best of his career. You're still looking at one of five location plus one of six pitching plus. The strike out to walks are still good. He's not allowing a lot of hard, like he checks all the boxes, like yes, being 36 years old, about to be 37 on what seems to be a curse that land abrasive. Oh my God. That's maybe the scariest part is that he's on that haunted ass team. She's. But I'm okay with him as an SB two. SB one, I get a little nervous. SB two. I'm okay with it. Yep. I think I definitely see the outlook there with sale back him up, either have somebody already or back him up with another guy immediately. All right. This next guy, I think he's going to be a little bit scarier for everyone because he does not have any real track record of full season whenever I say full season, that's a minimum of 162 innings because that means you qualify for the ERA title. You have to have one inning per team game, which is almost always going to be 162.

40:23The green has insane talent and zero full seasons, Justin. Where does that put him for you? Is he? I don't know. I thought so. I thought so. I thought so. He has never put together a full season, pitches in Cincinnati, I still think they're command issues at times. Yes. The homeers came back last year. Yeah. He just, he just out ran them. Yeah. The stuff is unreal. I, I understand it. I think people are dreaming on, hey, is this year? He puts together 150, well, he has 150 season, it was 2024 or yeah, we're hoping if he can do it again. Yeah. So I, I just don't buy it. I just, I don't like, I, like, I, it's crazy to me to see these projections that hit like 160, 180, what, you know, like, it's just, I, I don't know how you project him for more than like 135 and it'll be as good 135 as long as the homeers don't crush him, but I, I just can't do it personally, and if you do do it, you have to do the volume play

41:27with your next days, right? It's got to be Logan Webb, it's got to be Framber Valdez, it's got to be one of these guys. This is my, sorry, go ahead. I'm sorry. That was my fault, entirely. I, I, I just think it has to be one of these guys that you have to like kind of pair with someone who is a less volatile profile. And that is my whole point about this tier is this is now the third guy in a row that you got to get another guy. And I, I agree with you, but that's why I hit almost all of these guys like this is, this is why I said should be aces because I'm like, this is not how you usually treat a nace. Usually you get to take a little breather after you take a nace and maybe draft two hitters in a row or a closer in a hitter, but with a lot of these guys, you got to go right back to the well, which can be a fine strategy, but it's a while before you find a lot of like the really good, like innings guys at least, right? You got Logan Web at 60, but then like really you're kind of waiting until Dylan sees it 80. Absolutely. And then like Framber Vado is at 95, like, like, there's not a lot of straight volume

42:32horses anymore. No, I was surprised by how light my workhorse's category was to argue against myself. There is an argument to be made that you should just say, fuck it. I'm going to go get the best possible arms, right? Well, then if one of them implodes, I still got four other best possible arms on my board or on my team and I'll make it work. And you just got to hope that you don't have two or three of them, you know, don't know. And because everyone's been dealing with that, right? That's been our big push full conversation at pitching that you and I have had for the last few years with regards like the injury and all that. It's like, I understand the glass now is in the greens and the snails have the risk. We're still too risky for you, right? Or are you going to do that? I've come around a bit to where the doors open. Remember last year I was pretty hard line out. I said, those homers are going to come back with a with a vengeance and things are going to be problematic. I was right about half of it, but not the half that mattered. The homers did come back.

43:33He went from point seven to one three. The ERA went up point zero, one. That's crazy. And that's awesome on his part because Hunter Green found control. He went from nine percent walk rate to six percent. So fewer men on basis, all of a sudden the solo shots instead of two runs and three runs. And so he worked around it. But what if he doesn't this year? What if that control isn't real? So I am really torn on him. The bottom line is I have not drafted him anywhere yet, but I am not afraid to last year I was terrified. You couldn't get me to pay for Hunter Green. This year I am more open to it just because he is such an electric talent. I think I would do what you said though, Justin. I would get my second guy either before or immediately after I do want to create a little bit of a halo around him. And so it would have to be a concerted pitching team that I go for to get green. Joe, let's bring in on Hunter Green. He's very volatile. Justin and I have been very terrified of him pretty much his entire career. Where do you come out? Are you somebody who's a risk taker with him or do you share the the home run concerns? The Cincinnati concerns, the health concerns with Hunter Green.

44:34Yeah, I think I share all of them because last year, you know, the command was good. That's why projections use three years because what if the walk rate is back up to 9% this year, giving up those home runs in that ballpark, like Cincinnati for how, you know, well, the time I started playing fantasy pretty much until maybe a year or two ago, if the pitcher wasn't Cincinnati, you pretty much scratched them out. You brought a red cross over his name the same way if they were pitching in cores. And now Hunter Green is better than most of those pitchers that have been in cores and in Great American the last few years, but there is still that home run risk. There's still the injury risk. There's still the risk that maybe he starts walking double digit guys because he's been nine, 9.6, 9.3. He seemed to unlock something last year, but you know, this is why we look back over the last couple of seasons. Maybe he doesn't maintain it. And I think that he is honestly the poster boy. We've talked about, you know, the pairings you need to pair him of all the guys, he is the guy that you need to back him up or he needs to be your SP 2. If he can, one of the aces and you take Hunter Green as your second guy, if you're starting out like schemes or crochet and then you take Hunter Green, like I'm like, all right,

45:38fine. Because even in 107 innings last year, he was like the SP 25 or so, so taking him in a spot where you don't need to rely on him for the volume, I think is what you need to do. Yeah. And so there's avenues where I'm open to it this year, whereas last year I had blocked Hunter Green off completely. So it is a little waffling where I'm saying, yeah, yeah, there's a situation, but at least the doors open. Last year, I said, couldn't do it. Next five up here and still plenty of questions. I didn't even write all the questions out for these guys because we know a bunch of them, like just kind of off the dome. They are a little bit cheaper, but again, we're still here within our top 15 pictures with question marks. Let's start with Cole Reagan's a guy I love and I'm fully ready to buy back in on even after last year's flame out because I think the town is still just exquisite. He really just missed time. Do we have any concerns with that health like that are pushing you away from Reagan's though? Are you staying away? I'm not necessarily staying away, but I do have concerns with health. But like you said, all these guys do, right?

46:39Like until we get to the next year and we start talking about kind of the boring volume guys, um, all these guys have health concerns. So let's talk about Reagan's talent because what he did last year in the 62 innings, which is a very small sample was drop a 38% K rate on folks with a seven with an 8% walk rate, which was actually a point better than the year before where it's also 38% in spring right now. Now it's only two innings, but sure, but like he's coming right back to it like I'm exactly. And like he's one of these guys that like 38% is insane, but I think that that could just be who he is. 30 plus is very much on the table. He's been at 29 the last two years for Reagan's and then 38 last year in the shortened season. 30 plus is very much on the table and he has a buck 86 innings back in 2024. So we've seen him do it is he may be one of the one of the ace bargains here. If you're if you can overlook the immediate health concern with, yeah, honestly, I would rather do the schemes or, you know, scoobal or Yamamoto Reagan's gambit that I would

47:45with a guy like Hunter Greene. I just think the upside is the same and the downside is kind of the same. And I'm getting him cheaper. So I'm probably this is one of the reasons I'm not going to do Hunter Greene is because I'll I'll just do if I want to if I want to take a risk and have some fun, I'm going to go call Reagan's. It's a better part to pitch in, you know, and I think the pitch now, yes, I'm just kidding. It's still going to be better than since he folks, but he's also he's also put like 186 innings together in a season, like we've seen him actually do the volume thing. So I'm scared. I don't know how often I will, but I'm sure Col Reagan's will end up on one of my teams this year. He already has on mind and I will continue to get more shares because yeah, I think I think I like him as one of my first aces that I'm open to drafting. I've been pretty pitching heavy early on in my very first three, four rounds, but Reagan's isn't somebody I'm not afraid of Joe again, we saw we saw the injury short in season last year, but with the talent being so rich and I will point out he did have

48:46a 460 70 R a, but it was a 252 Sierra, the skills were saying he deserved way better. Is Reagan someone you're ready to die back in on despite the the short in season last year? Yeah, I think this is my flag plant pitcher for the year. I think it's right. There's the big risk that I'm taking there, but last year it was to Grom. So I guess this is kind of on brand for me. You know, the injuries injured, injured studs, yeah, you like them. Like studs a little bit cheaper than usual. Reagan feels like a guy who we get a couple more of these little spring outings. You're going to see him in the third round and maybe even higher when you're doing main runs. You're looking at every pitcher last year, who through at least 60 innings. He was first and strike out minus walk rate. He was first in Sierra and he was first in Expo. His fastball velocity maintained at 95, 95, three, stuff was 109, pitching plus 107. The injury risk is there, but like we've said, it's there for fucking everybody. The wise will take a guy who when he was out there last year was, you know, on a per pitch, per inning basis, the best pitcher in baseball last year, I know I'm going to get

49:48in trouble for that. But he was. I a strike out minus walk rate. Best Sierra. Like that's those are the bread and butter. Thirty percent strike out minus walk rate that he had. That is so bananas for Reagan's and it won't be that probably, but I think he can be something close to it. The one concern maybe is like he has one full season under his belt, right? And the rest of them have been kind of washouts relief pitcher season. So there is some volume risk, but the talent as the SP, what, 15 off the board, I think it's totally worth it. Can I spin that too? The negative and you'll positive. He's fresh. He hasn't used his beginnings. He's got more gas in the tank, right? Like, yeah, I just, I love him so much. I'm fully and on Reagan's. I have not moved an inch off of him. I'm fully there. Let's go back to DeGrom Justin. We talked about it with sale. Does the health move you off or does the age move you off? It's like, no, unicorns are unicorns and when they're awesome like this, I'm not going to move off. There was obviously a lot of consternation with DeGrom. He had his hardcore believers, Joe and I were among them last year and he had his detractors,

50:48which I don't think Justin. I don't think you were like a hardcore detractor, so I'm putting you in that camp. But he did have people that were saying, no way, 37 years old with all this injury track record. I'm not doing it. And this is why he's such a good example. DeGrom is of how we know little about innings, 68, 92, 64, 30, 11. 173 at age 37, right? So like we do the best we can with the patterns and the three year averages and all that, but we don't know and that's why you bet on the talent. But this one even more so than sale of Justin feels like the, okay, I cashed last year. I don't want to be caught holding the bag this year. So now I'm out. I've seen some people freely admit that they're doing that. They were all in last year, but now that they hit, they don't want to get caught this year, do you feel that way about DeGrom at all that we have to be worried of the complete falloffers? He's just so good that when healthy, who gives a shit? Yeah, no, I think he's just so good. And we saw him throw 172 last year and he got the surgery, he got it fixed. He went to the rehab, he missed the time.

51:51And honestly, there's not really that much of a reason to think that he will get injured, right? I don't think that only gives him any more risk of being able to picture. I'm betting on the health. I took him as my second aid behind the pool in par. And I'm stoked by having those guys, yeah, I can be happy. Another one of these guys that I'll probably pair with a safer ace, like for you, for sure, be in my queue when I come back around in the fourth round in my TGFBI drafts and Hunter Green is still available, right? So like I'm, I and Cole Reagan is still available. So, I'm, I love DeGrom. I think he deserves to be kind of at the top of this tier to be honest. Joe, I know I don't going to ask you about whether or not you like DeGrom. You already talked about how last year he was a big flag plant for you. You said, give me the old man. I believe in him. I assume you're doubling down because he did nothing to dissuade you last year. If I can throw a little fly in the ointment, though, I will point out the one four home or nine and ask you if it gives you any pause.

52:53It didn't hurt him too much last year, but one four is pretty high. How does that tickle your ear with DeGrom? Yeah, it's not what I want to see the home run rate being there. It has periodically spiked in his career 2017. I guess that was before he was like truly Jacob DeGrom at that point, but he did have a one two five that year in his 11 starts in 2022, which were really good. It was a one two six home or nine. And that ballpark, I think, will take away a lot of the worries there. Generally speaking, being more of my fit your park. Great. The thing with DeGrom is that I think we're still in that kind of Tommy John honeymoon phase. You generally, and I linked to an article last year in the in a bold prediction I did about DeGrom. My bold prediction was that he was going to win the Saiyan, but there was a link there to an article about the Tommy John honeymoon where you generally get like 350 to 450 innings once you have the surgery where you're good to go and you're not really at a high risk of re-injury. And I think DeGrom is also a lot smarter than he used to be. He's always been a brilliant pitcher, but he also didn't know how to control himself

53:54really. He would be throwing. He'd be sitting 99 and obviously, you know, throwing 60 percent fastball sitting 99. Yeah, it didn't work out for him. It's great that he could do that, but it clearly put him in harm's way. Absolutely. And now, I think that, you know, he said it before last season, which is part of the reason why I was in on DeGrom is because he said he was going to, you know, take a couple notches off the fastball. And he did. Fastball was sitting 97. The slider, which had been 91.92, was sitting at 90. So I think that he is more intelligent and still able to give you great innings. Even if he's not quite that peak DeGrom, and honestly, I'm a of the opinion that peak DeGrom might be the best pitcher who's like ever lived or at least in a very, very, very short list, like 2021 DeGrom with a 42 percent strikeout minus walk rate in the 0.55 whip. Like, he was a god. He's not going to be sickest runs ever, by the way. I thought he had my own wings, but like, come on, dude, the guy in my home league took him one, one that year, and he thought he had struck old and even still, he pretty

54:54much did. He kind of still did. It was head to head, though. So okay. So yeah, he aided a bit more than others, but just to derail you real quickly on that. Do you remember where he finished in the, in the play rate of that year with 92 innings for DeGrom overall or among starting pitcher among starters? It was like probably top 20 still. It was ninth. He was sp9 with 92 innings, 108, 0.55 whip. Anyway, sorry. So again, you're in on DeGrom. You are not afraid of him. Yeah, like, I don't think he's going to be that to grow, but if he could be a 28 percent strikeout rate where he's like a 22, 23 strikeout minus walk rate, that whip is still below one, the ERA, like up until late in the season last year, DeGrom was sitting on like a two, two ERA and then he had back to back five earned run out against the angels in Seattle. But he could have been like a two, three ERA last year if it wasn't for a couple of blow up. So long, long story short, I've been going rambling here. I'm in on DeGrom. He's my SP 10. I think we got at least one more year. But next year, that's when I'd probably, earlier point, probably take my foot off the

55:57gas a little bit. And I think that that's fair because then it will be 38 if we have another full season under his belly. I'd be like, okay, now maybe we let somebody else maybe deal with it. All right, let's go over to Max free Justin. And I feel like he's a little bit of the forgotten ace now with with the Yankees. You talk about a Yankee tax. He is not experiencing that. I don't believe he transitioned there last year, first year, no issues. By the way, and that's why I want to point out because like we talked about the first year under a new deal and everything and how sometimes I fade guys like that. It's not because I think they're universally bad. It's usually so I can give them a chance to adjust a lot of guys have troubles. But as you can see from Max free last year, it doesn't always go poorly. He had his best year ever, 195 innings, 17% strike on minus walk, 286 ERA and a 110 whip. What does he do for a New York encore Justin more of the same or do some of his previous injury issues maybe bring up some concerns for he did spike the Velo from 94 to 96 last year. Where do you come out on free because I actually like him as a pretty sneaky sneaky ace

56:58down here. Honestly, I mean, after, you know, spending a lot of his career with kind of like this injury, tag injury risk kind of guy for the last five years, he's throwing 165 innings or more. Yep. So at what point do we? At my number seven. Yeah, I think we just wipe it away and I do think he is safer than a lot of the guys we've been talking about here recently. So this is maybe a guy that I would pair with a DeGrom would pair with a Reagan's would pair with honor green if they want to strike outs up to that actually a really good combo fit there with free. Yeah. I think, yeah, and he gets the wind potential of being a Yankee dude won 19 games last year. So like just insane amount of value in spite of the fact that he pitches Yankee stadium because he's left handed it really neutralizes that short porch. So like I love to read this here. And honestly, yeah, I could make I could make the argument that he deserves to be in that you know, six, seven, eight range and starting. Any major differences there that you see on free Joe before move on to our next guy?

58:02You know, scared the shit out of me several years ago on a podcast we were doing talking about free and not specifically him more so about the recurrence of a forearm injury once you've already had one and he's had two. And I think, you know, we've been wrong. You know, and I collectively have been wrong about him pretty much every year. 2023, he missed, you know, but he's been good every, like he has a 303 ERA over more than a thousand career innings at a certain point. I have to admit, maybe I was wrong about it, but as he now is on the wrong side, well on to the wrong side of 30s, now 32 years old. Could there be some wear and tear on that arm that brings back the forearm troubles from 23 and 24? Is he fully out of the woods now after two healthy seasons? I don't, I don't know. I might have him too low. I currently have him at 16, which feels a little bit too low, so probably up one or two spots, but he does still feel like a bit of an injurisk. Similarly to Wu, like just because you had one healthy season, is the problem now gone? I don't know. No, I think that is fair. And I think that's part of why he gets pushed down from X-Freed, but it's a discount

59:03I'm willing to take. I think I think to use one of our favorite phrases from the O601, I think he's gone a little too far. And I know we're talking relative here because he is still pick 54 overall, so we're not saying he's some extreme discount. But for me, somebody who has him at seven, that means I would be taking him around pick 38, 39. And so that is a pretty big difference there. But I think you have valid concerns about the career long health issues and now that he's 32 and where you weigh those with the other guys is kind of preference. For me, I don't want to say I overlooked them. I minimized them a little bit after two full healthy seasons. That's a good one for him. Yeah. Let's stay in New York and back to Justin on Freddie Peralta first year in a new park. Not a brand new contract though, so I don't necessarily fade guys who get traded to a new situation, unless it's inherently worse for them. And I am curious how you feel, Peralta going to go be the ace in a big spot now. I think he's got the juice to handle it. You know, you never, you never really nobody doesn't strike me as somebody who's going to wilt under the New York pressure. I think he'll thrive under it.

1:00:03But where are we on Peralta who has now really rounded himself into one of those secondary aces who, you know, he's a buck 75 166 174 177 the last three years. I don't think we need to be pushing for more than that because it's 30 32 and 33 starts. He's a five and dive kind of guy with some sixes mixed in. Is that enough to be an ace again in New York? He out ran his ERA indicators quite a bit last year, Justin. Where do you come out? I'm Freddie Peralta this year. I mean, he has been a five and dive, but will he be in New York? Like, is that the plan they're going to have for him? Like I could see should they push him? Do you believe they should push him? Why not? At least see what you got in the dude. You just, you know, gave up some real prospects for the guy and he's going to be open and get starter and in kind of the ace of that, you know, pretty deep good rotation. So I like Peralta. Now there's always the risk like that the homeers become an issue again or the walks become an issue again. But even like, I mean, outside if we're not counting the 2019 season, so why don't we

1:01:07just say since COVID 2021, his worst year A is 386. So that's the more when you're getting like a 30% strikeout rate, like, I'm okay with that. Well, I'll eat that. Right. We eat worse with Dylan C son occasions. So right. Absolutely. Like, I, and he's moving to a better park for home runs. I, I, he's moving to a team that's going to be probably just as good offensively as the Brewers were. So like, he's going to have a lot of wind potential. And unlike the Brewers, there are bottom feeder teams, multiple bottom feeder teams in this division that he's going to face on, you know, multiple times. So you're talking about the Braves and the Phillies. Yeah, exactly. Right. Please, please don't come at me. I didn't say that. Philly fans are kind of rabbit. So brave fans aren't that they deserve what they get. And even if they were a rabbit, they would just have to go on the IL like the rest of the game. Yeah, exactly. No, but I mean, they get to face the Nats, they get to face the, the, the Marlins, they're

1:02:07going to be a lot of wind potential for, for, for, for Alta. I think he's 80 P's too low. I'm honestly a little surprised. It's where it is. I know that he doesn't come off as like this super exciting guy, but I mean, Freddie Paralto, like, has had what three straight seasons. I mean, or actually, he's had, he's had a, every single year of his career, he's had a 27% strikeout rate or better every year. Oh, I thought you were going to say three straight full seasons when you said that because he has gone 30 plus those three years and he's gone, he's, he's made 30 turns in the rotation the last three years. Like I, I don't know why he's kind of, you know, got this boring moniker, but I don't think he's boring at all. I think he's really, really good. That's exactly what I think it is. And I think Fried carries it to, I could see myself doing a quote unquote boring New York double dip. And I don't think either of them are particularly born. No, I really, really don't. Joe, Freddie Paralto is going to go be a met there. Do you agree with Justin's rosy outlook? Or do you share any concerns about the 20, the 30 year old head and out there?

1:03:08No, I don't really have much to add here. He's very consistent. The team context is good. They're, I don't, I don't really have much here. Where we put the R.A. Sorry to interrupt you, but it was a 270 last year. That was a far cry from the last three years where he's been kind of an upper three is guy and his ERA indicator suggested that he did outrun it. Does he go back to the mid threes or with the better park? Maybe, you know, just having a better season if he can. Can he bring up down to say, you know, 320? Like where are you putting his ERA projection loosely for Paralto? I'd put it right at his career mark at 359. Okay, so back up a bit, but not killing you or anything. I think that's a fair record. What would you guys take the over under on that 359? I really like your number. I'm going to take a slight over. I'll say 365. I'm, I just pulled up my projections, stand 345. Okay. So we're right in like, we're talking a couple runs there with, so we in agreement mid threes ERA, good whip, high wind potential for about 170 innings. And maybe the Metz see him differently because I went and looked this up.

1:04:09When you said that, Justin, when you started talking about maybe he would go deeper. And I'm like, I don't know as he'd been known to just not be somebody who can handle it. And if you look at his times through, he doesn't seem to be somebody who falls off. Now part of it could be that like the brewers knew when to get him out so that he didn't consistently face the third time through when he was struggling. But his third time through last year actually got better. They just had a really good bullpen. That's a good two. They don't have and they're also very careful with their starters, especially because they have guys like Brandon Woodruff. They've got these guys who have these concerns, right? So they're just going to protect a lot of them and be okay with kind of using that bullpen to protect them. So and he's listed six feet, which means he's nowhere near that. He's probably like five eight. He's a smaller guy. Uh, no, did you see the thing about ABS with that? No. So with a with ABS now being a thing, they have in order to properly align the strike zone for ABS, they have to have exact measurements.

1:05:10So like Gavin Lux just I didn't see that. Yes, the three inches. I didn't see that like he was six to and now he's five 11. And everything I said about the liars out here. Yeah. So now we're actually going to get real heights and stuff from players and it's hilarious. I think every red dog player, every red dog player went down like an inch or two. I think maybe one or two went up, but like the whole team lost them. Like they had to do accurate measurements for everybody so they could have an accurate ABS strike zone. And now everybody's getting out. It is lying about their height. I love my short Kings. If you're shorter, that is not inherently wrong. Just says the guy who's like six 10. Listen, I know it's easy for me to say, I'm a string bean piece of shit. I'm just saying. I how tall are you actually? I'm six five. Okay. I respect my short Kings that own it is what I'm saying. I did a bit for like three years running where I would lie about your height. And every time I kept going down, right? No, I kept going up.

1:06:11Okay, going up. That's right. At one point I told a podcast a camera where it was that you were like seven eight. Like because you just kept going up to a point where it was like, you didn't tell me about that. That's really funny. No, I'm a string beanless. I know it's easy for me to say. And it is not easy out there for the show. So when you see pictures of me standing next to Paul, I am average. Normal height. This is true. Jason and Paul are the weirdos and you know for that matter. Yeah. I'm in the middle. And I'm right. Right. And you are perfectly sizeable. Both you neither of you guys are short. And even if you were, it would not be a problem. Again, I'm not inherently roasting short Kings. There's just something in sports that we know that if they're listed at six, they're no same for Hollywood. It's even worse for Hollywood. If it happens, we had Joe piece of peon last week. Exactly. We're pro short King here. I put you on my pocket and away we go. We need bog man. We do need bog. We need bog man in the Welsh. Honestly, I just texted the Welsh other day that we need to have them on. So Joe, I think you got to be on that one. Yeah, it's going to be a five foot when we bring them.

1:07:13Well, definitely do really for congressman then. Well, it's got four sentences. I'll, I'll, I'll just drive traffic to all four of you. Steve gnashing everybody and then interrupting you guys. All right. Last guy, we won't actually talk about innings for once to the negative because it's Logan wept our first guy that we get to talk positively about innings. In fact, we probably don't even need to say anything about innings. Specifically, that is the key driver here. He has led baseball for two of the last three years and the National League for all three of the last three years. He had a one ninety two, the fourth year, which was 2022. He is the quintessential workhorse, Logan Webb is. But Justin, you know what he did last year that I don't think is getting anywhere near the credit it deserves because all anybody talks about his innings with him. He spiked his strike out rate beautifully last year. Logan Webb ended up driving a twenty six percent strike out rate, which was up five points from the year before. And it did help, you know, propel him to a huge season. He was really, really excellent last year because nobody was expecting two

1:08:15in a quarter case from him and he delivered. The tough part is that it only came with an 11% swing strike rate, which is fine, but it's really stretching the edges of that two to two and a half multiplication that you can do of a swing strike rate for a strike out rate. And I'm wondering how many, how much of those gains do you think Webb can hold this year with the strikeouts? I think he can hold them. I think you can hold them somewhat. I'm not going to bet on him being a twenty six percent strike out rate. He's a career twenty three. You just dipping him down back to that or back to the twenty one of twenty twenty four. I think twenty twenty three is probably right. Let me see. Look, I have him. Oh, I don't have to strike up percentage on my on my cheap, but I am about a strike out in any so and you'll, you'll take that from Logan Webb. Absolutely. I mean, I, I have to point out he's got a 41% strike out rate in spring. How many earnings just in five? Okay. 17% swing strike rate. Baby, let's go with what look.

1:09:16Honestly, at least so far, that is really nice. Jason, that set are the texts that was of like where they, they like misread or like they, they misappropriated his mouth per hour. Like it was like, oh, yeah, when it was like one eleven, yeah, the stack has had Logan Webb throwing a picture at one eleven. Yeah, I think it was even one twenty two or something. Or maybe it was even easier, but it was something insane. It's all like it's Logan Web season. Maybe you got a buy on the car. He's going to strike out 50% of his guys fall off and travel to the plate itself. Yeah, it would absolutely go all the way. I got a different question for you, Joe. And it comes down to the Babbit because it was up at three forty six last year. And it did, he really didn't web wasn't able to flex the strike out gains into any sort of whip gains because a bunch of hits were going through. And I think the disappointing thing about that for me was when they added a dumbass to Chapman, I'm like, well, the left side of the infield is absolutely cooking. The problem is the right side was complete dog shit. And it's going to be again this year with divers at first.

1:10:17Which is actually I'm indifferent on him, but Luis arrives at second. So I wonder, do you have Babbit concerns, Joe, about Logan Web, given this defense or can the two guys on the left side scoop up enough that maybe the right side isn't going to kill us, specifically arise at second. I mean, if I could choose which side of the infield, I'd rather have be strong. I'd prefer that the shortstop and third baseman be good. Absolutely not working for us, but Logan Web, I mean, part of it is volume. But he allowed more hits than anybody in 2025. And in 2024, the only guy who allowed more hits than him was Patrick Orbit. And it is a volume thing, but it's also led to a one, two, three, and a one, two, four whip the last couple of seasons. So the Babbit probably comes down a little bit because 346 is just really, really high. He's three 16 first career projections have him around 300 generally speaking. But I worry a little bit about what the whip is going to be like. The projections are not bad for the whip. They're like one, three to one. I would take that, yeah, one, one, one, one, seven. I would take that if we can get the projections, I would take it.

1:11:20But when you're also looking at a guy who is not going to run up the total of strikeouts, you're going to get, you're going to get like, maybe he gets 26 again. I would take the other on that. I think, I think 23, maybe 24% strikeout rate. If I'm getting blabbered strikeouts with, really. Yeah, I think I'm going to sit and get all you get there. But being drafted, that's the only guy to do a work like two five with the 20% strikeout rate. That's what it's going to be. Yeah, I think that the whip is what scares me. And I don't know how much control guys have, you know, he's a heavy ground ball guy. But how much control can he get those ground balls to go to the left side, consistently to avoid a rise at all costs? And is there a world where a rise as defense is so bad that maybe he's sitting for web starts? I think maybe Justin, do you know of anybody that is Casey Schmid, a good defender? Would he be a very good defender? So then maybe they just treat their ace well and they let him play second base during

1:12:21those. I don't know that they're going to do that. I don't care. Is Fitzgerald done me? No, he's a dog shit defender. Yeah, and I don't think he's going to be on the roster. So I wouldn't know if Fitzgerald, I would rather just, I mean, just keep a rise at that point, but a rise is so bad defensively at second base. That's crazy. Yeah, so that's my that's my concern. I do still have some of the whip concerns just because even with Adamus and Chapman in tow last year, it was still pretty high, but not enough to move off of web. And I do like him as a pairing, like you said, with all those low inning guys, Justin, all those big low inning risks, like your sale, green, green. I like pairing web with them, especially ones that have good whips, right? Like if you've got like, hey, this high risk guy, you know, Logan Gilbert, right? Like he's a whip god, right? If you're going to take Logan Gilbert, yeah, go grab Logan web and just have a Logan Logan team. I don't know who this team is, but this Yusa team is destroying my giants.

1:13:21Watch out for Yusa this year. Yusa is so good. What's the score? It's seven, one Roman Anthony just went bomb, like, like it is just, uh, yeah, they're, I mean, the giants are pitching Blake Tidwell. So that tells you something, but they're not even putting these in the, in the box score list that ESPN, come on, ESPN, where are they playing? Are they in San Fran? Uh, well, I mean, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're just, just go surface. Because they're in the park. Okay, okay. When you said the tiger, yeah, the tigers are going to the Dominican to play the Dominican team tonight, which is really cool. That's a neat little trip. And I guess it's not that far since they're in Florida, right? So they can kind of jump over there real quick. But anyway, any final words on web from either of y'all? Nah, I mean, I think he's just about as stable as I come. Think so. I think he's really good plan for a little bit worse whip from him that you can, uh, fix with your other guys, but other than that, he's good to go. So there we go. There's our top, like 15-ish. I didn't count them exactly, but, uh, it's already a lot of questions.

1:14:24And we're going to get more here as we go into the next few groups. And you know, I talked about how I don't love these should be aces and drafting them. It's really the next couple groups that I don't see myself drafting like. That's where the real SP dead zone comes in. And again, Shalester Chris tower for putting a name to it. He said he got it as, uh, um, inspiration from a guy named Ben Gretz. I believe who did a running back dead zone. And it's a part of the draft where you just, you don't want the position. I think SP dead zone for the last several years. As I've talked about on the show, it gets written up in the forecaster. They are not a good return on investment. We'll talk about a bunch of those groups later this week. Joe, will you be with us on Thursday as well? I should be this week is this time of year is just a freaking. Totally should totally hear that should be should be able to just. And I will 100% be back on Thursday. Joe should join us, uh, and I'll talk to you gentlemen later. Take it as you guys.