The Recession Paradox | Alfonso Peccatiello

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023. Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up (11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability? (20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate (29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits (38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending (46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending (49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No! (01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen? (01:06:34) When Recession? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.