The Recent Escalation in the Middle East From a US Equity Lens

The big things you need to know:

• First, the conflict in the Middle East comes at a complicated time for the US equity market, as our sentiment and seasonality work has been suggesting stock prices could keep moving up, while our valuation/earnings and GDP analysis has been suggesting that the stock market has gotten ahead of itself. We highlight the three potential challenges we see for the US equity market from this conflict, which we are monitoring closely.
• Second, we revisit our four tiers of fear framework, which helps us map out potential downside in US equities from the conflict, particularly if conditions escalate and broaden out.
• Third, Energy and Materials seem most likely to outperform if the conflict results in a sustained oil price spike, while Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services seem most likely to underperform. We’re also keeping an eye on Utilities and REITs as potential, tactical outperformers.