The Jas Johal Political Happy Hour

0:00Hey, welcome to the jazz joe hall show political happy hour where the week's best political conversations keep going. Now each week we curate the sharpest debates and interviews from the show. Think of this as a smart drink at the end of a long political week. Well this week the BC Concerto leader shape is down to five candidates who has the momentum Keith Baldry drops five plus a drippa back down a caucus revolt ugly economic numbers the chattering classes are all asking the same question is David EB done plus a trillion dollars in investment over five years and a summit this fall in Toronto to make it happen Prime Minister Mark Carney is making a very big bet on Canada's economic future Mackenzie Gray global news auto a correspondent feels us in pull up a chair folks fire up the expense account the political happy hour starts now.

1:14Time now for inside the house where we pull back the curtain on BC and Canadian politics every week joining me now is global BC's legislative bureau chief who's made a special visit and he's joining us in studio Keith could to see you here in person in your swanky digs is a big step up from Mike Smith's plywood palace in the balls of the legislator I can tie that whoa he actually have lighting oh it's it's a fancy studio it is it's it's pretty fancy I think it's the best studio in Canada when I tap on the table Mike's studio says it's real plywood well it's an older building as we all know right so you got to take a little bit older a little bit old what's good to see in person and what what timing that's tomorrow is a critical deadline in the BC conservative leadership race Saturday is the cutoff to sign up by the clock and the last chance for candidates to pay a $60,000 installment to stay in I think you're all going to pay the organ I think so I think millibars already paid and I suspect the others are going to pay so the other four so the reminder those remaining E and black Carolyn Elliott Peter Millibar Yuri former Carolyn Finley

2:19then so the deadlines tomorrow then what what happens in the ballots go out no the ballots will go out on May 9th yes after all the memberships have been verified okay and the problem with this process is not unique to the conservative party it happened to the liberals and happened to the NDP there can be abuses of these signups Christy Clark famously signed up a cat in 2012 dead people have been signed up as members so parties are getting better catching this stuff though the first ones you know problems with pin numbers and this type of thing I'm a big fan I'm coming this long enough to know this is of the old delegate conventions I really wish political parties to go back to that because it's a three day or a week long gathering of really committed party people whether it was conservative liberal NDP I've been to all of them and they get together for you know hundreds of people and do a bit of horse trading back and forth who you're going to support across the Florida to join another candidate lots of excitement lots of buzz lots of media coverage and it's it's good

3:24for the party I think I think these this dry drawn out one person one vote is kind of black's passion lacks excitement you know all you see right now are candidates with these small gatherings of supporters and people's homes or coffee shopper restaurants I mean hardly the way to really draw my Pinterest in your party yeah you make you make a very good point now the BC conservatives the other day put out a graphic on social media saying 30,000 members which you know good for them it's a it's a impressive number but I'm thinking back and I think the 2018 BC liberal leadership race I think at about 60 or 70,000 members and if you go back to Kevin Falcon versus Chris D Clark and over one that by the way was going to be premier it's a little different but I think they had over a hundred thousand signups on that oh yeah the joke used to be you could be a member of the liberal party not even know it because so many people I think only cost ten bucks or something yeah but it's interesting so where does when this campaign started there's roughly six thousand six two hundred party members yeah where does this this whole

4:28bunch of new members come from are they old BC liberal supporters I suspect they are because the BC conservatives were going nowhere for years I mean they never did have a membership they haven't had an MLA you know elected MLA forever and suddenly they're now the BC conservatives but there's still that tiny membership base so the liberals you know collapsed into the United which collapsed entirely so where did those members go are they coming back and so that will probably favor a candidate like Ian Black or Peter Miller or former BC liberal MLA's or Carolyn Elliott who used to work in the the Gordon camel government if that's the case those three should benefit from this because those are all people who used to be BC liberals and you see this on social media Carolyn Finley you're a former complaining that the old BC liberals are trying to take over the conservative party well is that what's happening you've got three candidates associated with that party and now thousands of people have signed up now we'll know May 30th May 9th is when the ballots go up May 30th is when the count begins it's a preferential ballot

5:31talking to conservatives familiar with where everything's that sort of I don't think anybody really has a hand line yeah no one's expecting a first ballot victory yeah then so then it'll go to the second count and second choice and third choice is May prove critical in terms of ultimately who will win this thing and there seems to be probably an overlap between Ian Black and Peter Miller bars membership lists yeah I mean I think you're right at me we are speculating because it's so hard to gauge exactly we're right I'm hearing Mr. Fulmer's got a pretty good group good group of organizers and you know he may be sort of the dark course here at the same time I've heard that those have said that look Carolyn Caroline Elliott if she doesn't hit 45% or somewhere around there in that first ballot she's going to have difficulty in second and third ballot she's got to be up on that sort of mid 40s if she's 35% in first ballot it was a good numbers but it's harder to grow harder to grow yeah I think you have to break 40 and able to on the first count yeah and then absorb people's second choices and potentially third choices but you raise a very

6:33good point here which is this debate about you know being a pure conservative party in this purity test we keep talking about yet we as you know very well as a student of politics of this province you have to have a conservative and federal liberal coalition of some sort to actually beat the NDP when you do that well generally the free enterprise party wins but there's notion that a conservative only party can win and I want you to listen to this this quote from John Rostrad their former leader he was speaking to Mike Smith just late last week in regards to Kevin Falcon the brother-in-law of Caroline Elliott former BC United leader and from BC Liberal cabinet minister as well let's take a listen to that clip. Kevin Falcons campaigning every day for her well really she told me that he's not involved well that's interesting because he is he has he has spent weeks and weeks and weeks calling anybody and everybody on his contact list to encourage people to be supporting her. now I know specifically that Mr. Falcon did call a few organizers in late February or so and I

7:35did tweet that out my argument is so what that's his sister-law it's family he wants to help out but the fact that even a family member is helping and happens to be Kevin Falcons why is this a debate? yeah it's not well I think more interesting and potentially it's cuts both ways for Caroline Elliott was the endorsement of Gordon Campbell BC so Campbell is far more credibility as a liberal leader because they actually won elections than Falcons are just basically dismantled the party but Campbell left under a cloud you know more than 13 years ago associated with the HST debacle he's also the leader the BC Liberal Party so does that help Elliott attract conservatives or does it help her attract former BC liberals that's probably I think she has more to gain from this endorsement than to lose but I don't think it's a hundred percent gain there's going to be people in this this voter base who don't want don't like going to Campbell because he was a BC liberal not a conservative you know it's interesting about Caroline Elliott's campaign you know Miss Elliott is smart I think she's got a wide runway every successful political career out of over

8:37the next 20 years I'm just a surprise she's running this quickly to be leader and and one eventually if elected as premier in a 90 billion dollar economy but she she being young a different generation I'm quite surprised she has you know she'll take the endorsement of Gordon Campbell Jason Kenny was that one of her fundraisers it seems it comes across as a bit of a a top-down campaign and lead us campaign you got strong well-known organizers coming from Ontario but it's it comes across as a bit of lead us maybe I'm wrong we've been picking that up he can see that on social media too criticized for having an attitude it's already we've already won you know yeah it's we deserve this I think Caroline Elliott will get when we have a couple debates I'm sure her light resume will come up in terms of accomplishments in various fields but just the other candidates are going to have some some awards to deal with as well yeah no one's got a clean slate no one's got a particularly problematic one Carolyn Finley was a long time conservative MP federally in Ottawa

9:37that's going to impress some people it's going to turn off some liberals who might be wanting so again the question the conservatives are answering are we a big tent party like the BC liberals in the social credit party where where they won way more elections than they lost over decades or are we a pure conservative party which is more problematic to hold power in this province because you're just as you you see there's a lot of people both liberal federally in BC they're not going to vote for a provincial conservative party they're more likely to vote NDP yeah and that's the math I always say do you want to win an argument or do you win an election that's the difference right and and I want to that's an argument the NDP is had for years too do you want do you want to win an election or do you want to win some sort of philosophical ideological argument yeah exactly and that's that's what they have to decide and I want to go back to one fundamental issue and that was the last poll big lechet poll that you've brought up right now with David E.B.'s problems the NDP correct me if I'm wrong still according to that poll are leading by four points provincially and I think it's at 10 points in Metro Vancouver on 11 so I mean that alone should be

10:40a message to the conservatives get your act together because even even with this cloud heading over the NDP they're still doing okay they are and it's but you know I think the public is still not sold on the conservative brand having said that the last election was very close oh yeah very very close to being the more votes the leader general asset who was not the most popular person with the voters with a party that really didn't have an identity yet it was simply that anti NDP vote that coalesced around the conservatives now they've had a number of years or they will have had a number of years in opposition before the next election where voters can get a clearer picture clearly though the polls are showing the public is still not there they still haven't got over that hump the BC levels always track very well once they got into power it was a rough start for them in 96 but by 2001 they were often running and won every election fairly strongly until we got to 2017 yeah that's the brand was very well established and that so the conservatives are very at the start of what could be a long journey or a short one that we are speaking to Keith Baldriger will be sees legislative bureau chief or weekly summit inside the house where we

11:44pull back the curtain on BC and the Canadian politics run issue number two is supposed to be a confidence phone non-negotiable urgent then Joan Phillips said she wouldn't support it she's an NDP MLA first nation leaders held firm and premier EB Blink the house leader Mike Farman pulled the the bill the drip a bill this weekend stripped the confidence designation along with it let's take a listen to Mike Farman words when a bill comes forward it will not be a confidence that the premier and his comments when he was talking about the confidence around the bill is the bill that he was thinking of and it expresses I think the the sense of the importance that he attaches to this issue the reality when it comes to a confidence vote is it's what happens in the house and that only takes place when the minister tabling the bill or myself as the government house leader indicate a particular bill and a particular vote is a confidence vote so Keith so that's what that's one of those what the premier meant to say

12:46what he meant to say for the ninth time in the version so where where where do we go from this what's happening it's still very confusing it's it's quite a mess it's playing out badly for the premier internally in that caucus is not just Joan Phillips who's concerned about this seems he seemed to indicate there's no more talking to the the organizations that represent first nations wow so they say they will he says they will not budge they will not compromise one word so the assembly of first nations first nation summit unit BC and in chiefs he's not going to talk to them anymore he seemed to indicate that he the government intends to talk to individual first nations there's 206 first nations in BC a number of them have a pretty complicated resource projects that partnership with the industry and sometimes with the health from the government I think they're probably trying to list its support from those first nations to at least pause some of the aspects of dripper the most problematic one flag by the government is the interpretation act which harms that all BC laws must and I stress the word must be aligned

13:50with the principles of dripper which really means rewriting hundreds of thousands of laws evias told the these three organizations behind closed doors we don't have the physical capability human resources able to do this in a timely fashion at a time when at least 20 of these laws are in front of judges right now and may get tossed out as was the medical ten mineral tenure act toss because for that explicit reason that's why there's a bit of urgency to this but I it seems to be stuck so he bring these these these amendments in he's got to get the support of independent MLAs who are also opposed to dripper if he can get their support and not make it a confidence vote that may be enough to supplant or make up for the potential loss of NDP MLAs on his side if three NDP MLAs don't support what he's doing with dripper he needs to support a three independent MLAs to support what he wants to do dripper in terms of changing and I'm not convinced he's going to get that but if he's dealing with independent or specific First Nations communities this is all temporary then at the end of the day

14:55yeah well these are all pauses for three years until the courts can finally rule the Supreme Court of Canada can rule on this one or that it's interesting when dripper first came in or was first proposed back in you know mid 2015-16 Horge and promised to bring it in while he's in opposition the focus back then when the criticism was does this give First Nations an effective veto over land use decisions over community plans over natural resource projects that is shifted now to this interpretation act problem of requiring all BC laws to be aligned with dripper if not judges could potentially start striking down a whole series of BC lines mostly to do with land use decisions but not necessarily confine in that so it's a real pickle for Mr. Evie this was is he done Keith I always reluctant to rule someone's career over I think he can come back but I think he's in a real hole right now and again there's a game

15:57it chicken going on in the house the NEPS 46 the opposition has 46 seats the speaker breaks the tie the key that's puzzle maybe the six independence six of whom really have bad relations with the conservatives and vice versa in fact I think they get along with the NDP better than they do with their old caucus mates at least some of them do and that may be the key to determining the short and potential long-term health of the Evie government so these conversations are going on behind the scenes oh yeah every you know you can you can detect an enormous sense of relief every Thursday afternoon when everyone knows they're going home and they don't have to be in the caucus room again for a while but having said that I've seen caucus revolts several times we're not at that point yet but we're certainly at the point where there's some nervousness and there's some dissatisfaction being expressed internally it's not just Joan Philip but it's not like there's a whole mass of people but it's starting to build a bit well it's going to be very interesting well I really appreciate you drop them by today good to come in real nice office but back to the

16:57plywood palace on Monday morning smoothie show until or tell Mike you said that like real lights in here oh yeah this is pretty pretty fancy and the walls are painted oh it's it's pretty fancy fancy cameras TV in our NW studio in in the ledge we've got a we've got a map that's torn in half of Victoria we've got a fridge that doesn't work anymore and we have you in smitties chairs well we got to talk to management here time for a reno there you go that's like as you say it's an older building there you go that's a Keith Baldur Global BC's legislative bureau chief a 67 year old grandfather fails to show up for a meeting with his son at a local tire shop sparking a desperate search and he wouldn't be the only victim i'm global news crime reporter Nancy Hicks you might listen to a lot of true crime podcasts this year but they're not crime beat season eight

17:59drops april 21st but you can hear the first story now one month early only on amazon music so there's a question circulating right now in every corner of BC's political and business establishment in the press gallery in boardrooms in labor halls and ndp back rooms people are asking the same question out loud is david eby done the drip of suspension his own legislation has cracked his caucus wide open up to 10 ndp mla's voice concerns at an emergency caucus meeting not too long ago he pulled that confidence vote designation as well and this is on top of record deficits record debt and a fiscal hole his own deputy finance minister called unsustainable do you want to be now to talk about this issue is Richard zosman western cannabis president of public affairs that person Richard thank you so much for your time yeah i think you're having always i you know it's i know it's a very broad question but i'm glad you're on because i wanted to talk about this because i've been hearing this from i don't left right in center i was moderating an event

19:01last week it was the same conversation i had there i get stopped in elevators sometimes even in this very building people asking what's going to happen i mean the chatter is everywhere when you hear that that many people in that many different circles asking the same question about a sitting premier what does that tell you about where things actually stand in your mind yeah the big piece is who's asking the question and why are they asking it i think it's what i think about and you don't have to look back very far to find the answer which may be just intrudo because the temperature got turned up on him fast but it seemed like forever people were asking is he done what i want to point out is the biggest difference between where Justin Trudeau was and where David EB is now are the polls and the polls seem to still be indicating that if there was an election today David EB would win lege just did a poll that has the ndp in a position of strength we've

20:02seen a main street poll that has the ndp's trailing in the popular vote yet still based on the numbers in metro van koover and here on van koover island the ndp still could pull out a victory with all of that on the table it makes it hard to believe that david EB is finished but as we describe in politics he is wounded you spoke to what we saw this week to back off a promise to change landmark legislation and to back off the idea that the incompetence vote is as big a u-turn as you can see and david EB made a massive underestimation of the strength of first nation leadership in this province but also the strength of his mla's he basically said to his mla's i need you to follow along with me because this is what is needed to be done and if you don't we will go to a election you may lose your seat and a number of mla's said fine i'm willing to risk re-election in order to

21:05say i do not want to see these changes move forward and that's a pretty powerful message from a number of mla's loud enough to force the premier to back away from the legislation and i think most importantly jobs back away from this idea that there's going to be a call for so they were willing i mean a lot elected officials first thing they're going to think about is well how i want to keep my seat i want to potentially be in cabinet or as a parliamentary secretary you're telling me people just said no i'm not going to support this because these are just not my values this is not why i ran for office they were willing to go they went that far and that's what i think makes it so interesting jobs because often the question that's being asked is david EB done is a question around power question of is this guy electable can he manage his caucus can he manage the government but you now have another element to play here which are members of a caucus who are making these value-based decisions that aren't derived on power that's what makes it harder to sort of predict that that it's going to be an essence issued by issue to say these are

22:09the things that matter to me for many of these mla's mla's that i've spoken to they heard loud and clear from indigenous leadership in their communities that this would be a disregard a hand flap an insult unlike any they'd ever seen you need to understand the context i know you do jazz and the listener does too but it's the ndp promise reconciliation they promise bringing in under after years of uncertainty in the court and fighting with first nations and protests around the land mass this government got over the finish line landmark legislation to then reverse that in a way that first nation leadership believe destroyed the whole point of the legislation the mla's were willing to do that because that legislation was too important to them and it and it sort of changes that calculus of you know a premier is often done when you don't believe he can win again but if people are making decisions based on other things it makes it very hard to predict where he is at first future i think it's going to be hard with him in his caucus but

23:13i come back to that original point pull time and turned on him the caucus hasn't turned on him although there are frustrations or frustrations about the premier being a lone wolf about making these decisions himself we've heard these complaints before if david eby is who i think he is there's an opportunity here for him to hear these concerns and say well maybe i should be relying a little bit more heavily on my cabinet maybe i should be listening a bit more and if he does so it would be hard to unseat him from that job when a leader doesn't want to go jazzy saw this was john rust that it's hard but eventually it gets to a point where it becomes untenable we're nowhere near that for the premier now one of the other things which is quite interesting i had the jock funneless and on the show a few days ago talking about whether or not we were already in a recession here and we were talking about the fiscal situation in our province and he didn't have many great things to say about david eby but he did heap some praise on to john organ and carol james

24:14why has to i mean i mean look there are global issues there's trump and i understand that but i one of the other things i think mr eby has to deal with is this the you know the big challenge in the 90s it's you know very well was these guys couldn't couldn't manage a popsicle stand you had fast ferries have writing other issues massive deficits this is times five now we look at the size of these deficits today i mean i don't know how you survive how you go to the the the electorate and say you know we know how to handle finances we're handling your money well i know other governments i guess i have deficits as well but i just don't know of them deficits this size how mr eby is going to be able to sell the party is as as responsible fiscal stewards you won't be able to with the current deficit i think there's a gamble being made on economic growth bc right now is in fourth place in the country and gdp growth we are projected to move until second next year you know the goal was to try to move into first i think with what we're

25:14seeing with oil prices i think passing alborda will be really impossible for british Columbia but if we can grow the economy we can start seeing those numbers go down the premier can say look we have started to make decisions around speeding up the processing for mining about approving lng projects and those projects approved and moving forward are helping the financial bottom line there's a lot of ifs there though right there's still huge criticism from industry that the province is not moving fast enough to get permitting done and then the big thing looming over all of is sort of the root cause of this is what happens with under it and what happens with conversations first nations where's the college and tribes decision go in the court system because right now as you full well know jobs there are many companies that are unwilling to invest in british Columbia because there's too much uncertainty on the land mass and if that investment doesn't come the premier is going to have a very difficult time articulating to the electorate

26:15that he can manage the economy even with as you describe trump and struggles in the united states but i think that the government is trying to find that balance between not cutting services and hoping that the economy gets better and there's a lot of things that have to go right in order for the premier to be able to to sell that convincingly to brish Colombians um he certainly doesn't look me and i'm in maybe a plane psychologist you he doesn't look like he's having fun you know some premieres even the middle of the toughest times you can tell they're having fun he's not and and i'm just wondering sometimes you know you can just see and in a in the leader's body language it just to me when i watch him and listen to him i just kind of go he looks like he's been hit by the freight truck or something it's just he's been hit and he's not he's he's he's not that same david eby used to go after the bc liberals uh who as attorney general would be very aggressive with the opposition this is a different eight david eby any any any runs this province in a different way compared to to john horegan part of the problem one would argue is

27:18maybe he didn't take the right lessons from john horegan what do you say to that yeah i think that's correct i think john i often use a basket i know your basketball fan yeah i often use a basketball analogy describe this if we're talking about premieres being superstars i often talk about john horegan being michael jordan that when the game was on the line he would take the shot but he would rely on scottie tip in to play good defense luke longly to defend the post bj arms strong to defend or to distribute the ball david eby is lebron james he tells everyone go to the corners spread out and let me attack the lane and i'm going to take the ball to the hoop and you're going to be a distraction they can both be superstars but they do it in very different ways and i think one of the lessons many people have been telling david eby to take from john horegan is rely more on your team rely on your cabinet hasn't even just a but hasn't even a lone wolf that way i mean going after you know and that's the problem like he told me it's exactly is it too late for him to say i'm

28:21going to change mla's would often describe david eby on the fairy coming over to victoria sitting by himself in the corner when others would gather together sharing their french fries it is who david eby is it is what he lives by and is what it dies by and i think when times are tough you need to rely on your teammates and i'm not sure david eby can get there but i know people are giving that advice and his best he is one of the best lone wolves he can do many great things but sometimes when the going gets tough it's helpful to have people that you can rely on one would argue the only thing keeping him in power right now is an opposition that still struggles to be a government and waiting and if if there's any other opposition it would be a much different game right now the fact that david eby is leading by four points in unless you pull province wide and i think it's ten points if you just look at the metro van koover on its own says a lot about the opposition i think that's what's keeping him where he's at it because i think if any other uh government you get tired after seven eight nine years and the opposition's champion at the bit to run things i think

29:22one of the things he's been able to key stay in power and the ndp have been is the opposition just can't see if they're act together yet the nice thing is jazz you don't have to play every game against the 91 bulls you sometimes get the plague against the Washington generals and you only play against the team that's standing up against you and david eby has been able to you know get through a fractured conservative party but we saw that in the 2024 election he told British Colombians we can't trust with john russ and the conservatives are offering and enough British Colombians got behind that to give him this narrow narrow majority also you have to remember you know this jazz governments do have best before dates and the ndp has been in power in this province for nine years almost a decade and we've seen some examples obviously of dramatic shifts christie clerk pulled one off in 2013 to keep that government in power for more than a dozen years we saw the same with mart carning reversing ship we will see if david eby could

30:25pull that out himself but once you get to that nine ten year period voters start saying to themselves you know what else is available to me in terms of options and we don't know who the conservative leader is we don't know what they have on offer we don't know you know where they want to position themselves because the majority of british Colombians struggle with some of these strong conservative ideal logical issues that are coming forth from that party and if that's what they want to come forward to david eby i think he would be telling his members his caucus of british Colombians come on on the best person to be able to serve his premier under those conditions but the conservatives may find a way to center themselves jazz and then it becomes you know potentially more challenging for david eby yeah and uh if things don't change i'll sell you the drum beat for a Brad west or he's going to continue to grow so there you go we hear a lot of that and people can see alternatives here but david eby has proven it he's won an election before maybe he can pull

31:26it off again but that's a key piece jazz when people can picture other options we will see what sort of pressure built i don't believe he's at risk right now but again things seem to happen pretty fast in this province when it comes to politics yeah that's true Richard as always thank you so much yeah good rest of the show thank you well mark carney has spent the past year circling the glow pitching canada to investors CEOs and sovereign wealth funds today he announced the canada investment summit coming to Toronto this September with a goal of pulling in a trillion dollars over five years yes you heard that right that trillion dollars with a tee the backdrop matters of course a warner on has choked off whale shipments through the straight of her moves and suddenly canada looks a lot more attractive as a stable energy supplier now the IMF says canada is the strongest is in the strongest physical position in the g7 and a new rbc reports as if canada plays this right there's 1.8 trillion investment opportunities over the next decade uh the important word there being if that's a big word

32:32joining me now to talk about this potential summit is mccenzie gray global news is uh auto a core spun mccenzie thank you so much for your time always great to be honest um the canada investment summit sounds impressive but mr. carney has been making these big investment pitches for months now what is this summit actually doing that he hasn't already tried in your mind i i think it gets everyone in the room together i imagine to be a lot of repeat meetings that mr. carney's done you know a big feature of these trips that we go on um when we follow the prime minister around the world since mr. carney has come in has been him having private meetings with all kinds of business people and and look it has been very impressive the kind of collection of people who's been able to get together um and meet um but as we've talked about before it's a central part of his brand to say that he has these relationships and attempt to leverage them to get more investment into canada but uh that's also a political imperative on him to be able to actually execute on that so i wouldn't be surprised if some of the people who are

33:36coming are folks that he's gone to meet you know one of the groups that definitely he's looking to bring in our folks from singapore we've went to mr. carney to singapore and i also wouldn't be surprised on two fronts one if the the folks who are coming here come with some announcements to make with the prime minister to do them either at the location that those investments are going to be made or alongside mr. carney or or or not uh and or i'd say um mr. carney has a some big things he'd like to pitch and get everyone in the same room kind of like a big investor conference think of like you know a steep jobs up on stage or one of the big tech CEOs and mr. carney's talking like that i don't know if it's necessarily his style to have a big um public press conference like that in the same fashion but i'm sure he'll have some different things that he wants where does those investors want to hear where does the trillion dollar uh goal come from is is that a number of the governments provided or is that just something that's been sort of been floated around i'd just been something that's been floated around you know we have heard on different occasions um one mr. carney's particularly gone to the middle east talking about how there's

34:39going to be billions and billions and billions of dollars of investment but you know when you actually ask them hey can you give us some project names on what's happening with this you don't really get a lot of specifics on my front so i think that's the political issue for the prime minister they spend a lot of time on these issues but so far as it stands there have not been a ton of really big signature projects that they can point you and say thanks to this new liberal government as they like to put it um these are the definitive things that have changed from before uh if you're mr. carney you're hoping by the time this summed rules around you've got some things in the back and then you can announce some new things with folks who are here uh the lng candidate phase two up and kid him at i think that's a 14 to 18 billion dollar potential investment is that one of the ones are looking at uh to to to hopefully point to if it does get the green light from its own board absolutely i i think that's got to be probably the biggest uh if not in the top collection of ones that they really mean to get done and move forward with um i think it's been taking a while mr. carney has met with a lot of the big companies uh who are investors in this he met with

35:41the tronus and malaysia he met with mincipitian japan he's had meetings with uh the chinese companies is about two who are also invested so he's been to those countries uh and have met with those companies that are going to make those business decisions going forward there have been some important contract to them and sign in terms of figuring out who's actually going to buy this additional lng particularly in asia and we have heard from those countries when mr. carney has visited um those Asian countries that hey they are interested in buying more caddy and lng you got to figure out how to get to us here uh and i would both imagine for those businesses the borne ran and especially guitar who is a huge lng producer um you know they've had a lot of issues uh and the stability associated with getting energy out of that area i'm sure that kind of adds to the business proposition of making those additional investment in canterals and so in your mind what's happening this trade of her moves is is in mr. carney's mind an incredible opportunity for canterals energy uh certainly uh that's the argument we've been hearing from uh tim hawtson the natural resources minister um i think that's an easy argument to make with lng of course um

36:44there's just left for your roadblocks in particular with the lng two project to expand the situation relative to a new pipeline you know we're still past that deadline um by you know coming up on a month now on the first deadline of what was supposed to be kind of phase one of agreements going forward with the um m.o.u. between Alberta and Ottawa uh i was talking with the senior business person in calorie yesterday is also very well politically connected jobs and you know the second point really seems to be at this point in time the carbon capture and storage project you know Ottawa backed up to bring struck with a whole bunch of tax incentives in the last budget to really um you know kind of push this idea forward that is going to be uh you know an interesting position to see how that actually plays out and and the libels are coming under some pressure at this point in time to say hey do we even need this thing is that the investment there to go forward with it or it should be just focusing the pipeline and go forward you know remember that mr. carney's big conversation about a pipeline is this grand bargain idea that we can decarbonize barrels as he puts it you know the idea that you know of course there's going to be higher emissions associated with a new pipeline but also you know you can take some of those emissions um and kind of remove

37:48them with the carbon capture and storage project um i'm not sure how well that bargain's working out right now and for both Daniel Smith and Mark Carney they've stayed a lot politically on this and very interested to see how that goes well so so with mr. Carney's majority now it's a small majority but a majority is a majority and he'll take it do you think even some of the conversation he was having about energy and and trying to make it as green as possible in regards to its uh export a lot of that may just be throwing out right now in his desire to get a deal done and desire to to push for more capital investment and hopefully more revenue for the government eventually that he may just say we're going in the direction of a pipeline and some of the things that perhaps we felt we needed in in this grand bargain would just you know it's not going to be a priority for us right now because we've got to get started we got to start building in this country again i think that's definitely a possibility um the issues would come of course in their democrats uh but would come from a reasonable number of people within his own caucus both in Quebec and in bc i don't need to tell you about the bc opposition that there would be many libel in peace who

38:49would not be particularly happy about that but this could be you know in mr. Carney's we are remake of what it means to be a liberal at this point in time you know mr. Trudeau did the same thing uh with i would say to his credit greater electoral success winning three elections um you know mr. Carney could be thinking about doing the same thing at this point in time although it would be quite challenging i think from a political perspective for mr. Carney to go back on this idea of these decarbonized barrels this grand bargain that he's talked about at this point in time um you know but just in Trudeau built a pipeline so if just in Trudeau can build a pipeline then really anybody can build a pipeline that's true if we are speaking to global news auto correspondent McKenzie Gray mr. Carney has announced an investment program a summit of of sorts that would encourage investment in our country of a trillion dollars over five years it's expected to occur this fall be interesting to watch now McKenzie since we have you here just in regards to uh mr. Pauliev and the conservatives um you know mr. Pauliev uh this week uh had

39:55mentioned that uh mr. Carney mr. Carney doesn't understand economics um is this is one of those cases where he has a tendency to mr. Pauliev has a tendency to fall back to being the old mr. Pauliev rather than the one he's think he's trying to show the public which is a kindler gentler uh the uh individual different from what we know him as i mean i'm trying to understand what convinced him to make that type of comment where he was saying mr. Carney was run to uh uh you know two banks uh bank account a bank of UK i and to say that he doesn't understand economics and what's what are you hearing from Ottawa uh it doesn't make any sense to me jazz i mean you you can disagree with mr. Carney's tradition on economics and and there certainly are things that um you know the conservatives have made a lot of sense on i'd argue and there have been plenty of things the conservatives have argued for an extended period of time that the liberals have taken and uh you know again you know i i think mr. Pauliev should call up tumble care or uh you know call

40:56up drug means thing and maybe have a little therapy session together to figure out how to handle the situation when the liberals take your ideas because of course mr. Trudeau is taking a lot of the ndp ideas uh and now mr. Carney's taking some of the conservative ideas despite the fact that we've heard from mr. Pauliev say take my ideas um it's just it's it's it's i don't think it's a very good look jazz um it just shows that you know the amount of time and effort that the conservative spend um trying to change mr. Pauliev and do things differently and software approach and you think about Kim going on Joe Rogan and not taking shots at mr. Carney and some people were prescribing that oh yes he must have turned a corner at this point in time uh you know old habits die hard in politics mr. Pauliev has been in politics for a long period of time and he's made and his brand and got to this point as leader of the conservative party and had a relatively good showing last election minus the fact that he blew a huge lead and lost his own seat um largely based on being more aggressive and we should say this is not just like one line that he said and like you

41:57know people say things and you you kind of regret that or oh that didn't work he he doubled down on it at the speech of the Canadian club he's had Andrew Sheer come out and say many of the same things are back these ideas out there's been other conservative surrogates on talk shows you know broadly back in mr. Pauliev you know the party is okay with this um you know if you're mr. Carney uh this is great you want to talk about how educated i have me you want to focus on those things that sounds awesome i'm happy to repeat my resume to Canadian it's it's just such a own goal and i think it's very poor strategy but uh i do well before you it's one to ask you one more question before you go and that of course is just uh the kusman negotiations uh can you give us an update on where we're we are or what we expect to with the summer months i'd love to give you an update if the government gave us an update um you know dominant for blanc used to be one of the most accessible um cabinet ministers would routinely talk with the media the guy is m.i.a right now of course he's the person who's at a cabinet level in charge of these negotiations of course really in the end it's going to come down to mr. korean domal Trump talking and hashing things out

43:00you know this is compared to mexico where there's going to be formal negotiations with the mexicans going down to the u.s um you know candidates does not seem to have really any urgency at this point in time to try and move things forward uh you know which i think to me clearly signifies this strategy is allow world events to happen try and weaken the american economy weaken domal Trump's position if you can rag the puck to the point where the midterms are getting closer or happening there and maybe they'll lose you that as a possible uh you know helpful strategy to them um the issue that that potentially brings here which is one kind of soldier in the last renegotiation that the mexicans get so far down the line that they basically attempt to hang us out to drive and we have a one-on-one deal with the american um we'll see how that plays out uh but the anxiety level in auto-war um you know within the liberal government in terms of how those things are playing out does not seem to be very high but we should say that they are uh extremely uninterested of giving updates talking about this sharing details of this uh it is pretty clear right now that they are trying to rag the puck as long as possible which is a very different

44:03situation to what the mexicans are doing right now they have certainly been much more willing to negotiate and trying to get the issued dealt with um with the Trump administration. So so this is really about you know have Trump focus on uh Iran, Hormuz uh and get out of the mess that he's in at this moment and of course his focus is going to be on the uh on the midterm elections uh and so the push this as far far down as they possibly can which as you say is completely different than what we've been hearing in the past year. It certainly is and if you were going to run an election on being the person best place to deal with Donald Trump um you would imagine that you would want to like deal with Donald Trump so it is an interesting approach from Mr. Carney to try and weigh things out like this uh but i i see the merit in it um i do think the issue though is you know what happens if the americans and the mexicans move forward and canada is much further back. You know we have heard from James and Greer before the um US trade

45:04representative he's going to be the key person that we spend a lot more time talking about as these negotiations eventually do kick off. You know he has pointed out that you know the americans are very happy and want to have separate negotiations between canada and the US largely because in their view the issues that they have with canada and the issues they have with uh mexico are very very different um and the issues while they are important in the context of the Canadian economy uh i think are much easier to solve relative to the issues that the americans have with mexico about labor standards about um you know china getting much more involved in their auto sector and manufacturing sector relative to the small amount that um canada is going to have relative to what happens in mexico and of course the exemption that you get um with uh kuzma in that point so i think you know there shouldn't be panic at this point in time because things haven't gone forward and look you know this probably has been the longest since karni has been pm and trump has been president but trump has not been talking about canada in this lightest like this has been by far

46:04the quietest in terms of the canada talk that we've heard from the white house i'm good or bad it's just like not in a topic of conversation um if that's the case and you're the liberals you probably want to make hay on issues domestically at this point in time before trump takes things over because we know historically at least for the past year that there'll be quiet points and then trump does other things again whether directly in pice canada or not um that make the situation more challenging of course the warner and has made things challenging in terms of energy prices and worries of inflation uh but in terms of fifty first state talk uh issues about all kinds of other things when it comes to tariffs that has not been top of mind right now and particularly when it comes to those aluminum tariffs the americans are really feeling the pinch on that uh if you're more karni i think that can be a chip that you bring into negotiations saying hey this is actually really hurting you guys right now this why you need to take these things off and here's the other things we can compromise and now that he does have a majority government jazz he's definitely going to let some people down that he promised he was not going to let down during the last election he's got more latitude to be able to do that in a majority situation relative to a minority

47:06situation. Mackenzie as always really appreciate your time thank you so much. Have a great weekend, hey thanks for listening to the jazz joe hall show political happy hour podcast if you like what you heard subscribe on apple spotify or wherever you get your podcasts you can always catch the jazz joe hall show live Monday to Friday from three to six p.m or subscribe to our youtube channel at seven thirty ckn w that last call for this happy hour i'm jazz joe hall we'll see you next time you

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