The Iran War Predictions (Ft. Benjamin Studebaker)

Get access to The Backroom (100+ exclusive episodes) on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/OneDime

Benjamin Studebaker returns to 1Dime Radio to cut through the noise surrounding the war between Iran, Israel, and the United States. We break down what the actual strategic objectives seem to be, why this conflict may not unfold like Iraq, what a Libya-style collapse in Iran could look like, whether regime change by air power is really possible, and why oil prices, regional power balances, and American domestic politics may matter more than the loudest media narratives.

In The Backroom, Benjamin and I discuss “Neo-Leftism” through the case of Spain and Pedro Sánchez. We also get into the end of history thesis, the clash of civilizations debate, and what all of this reveals about the contemporary left.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 Backroom preview clip

00:02:44 Intro

00:06:14 Oil shocks, inflation, and why U.S. domestic politics matters

00:09:37 Why this is not Iraq 2.0

00:11:27 Regime change without a replacement?

00:12:41 Libya and the failed-state scenario

00:25:00 Precision strikes and the new warfare paradigm

00:33:06 Diaspora politics, monarchists, and the Shah fantasy

00:43:26 Does anyone actually want a democratic Iran?

00:45:57 Can Iran meaningfully escalate?

00:47:29 Why Russia and China are unlikely to intervene

00:51:50 Will Trump send ground troops?

01:45:59 Neo-Leftism, Spain, and Pedro Sánchez

GUEST:

Benjamin Studebaker, PhD at Cambridge, political theorist and author

• The Chronic Crisis of American Democracy

• Legitimacy in Liberal Democracies

FOLLOW 1Dime:

• Substack (Articles and Essays): https://1dimereview.substack.com/

• X/Twitter: https://x.com/1DimeOfficial

• Instagram: instagram.com/1dimeman

• Check out my main channel videos: https://www.youtube.com/@1Dimee

Leave a like, drop a comment, and give the show a 5-star rating on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you listen to this.