The Infinite Inning #037: The Deadly Accurate Projections Episode

ESPN baseball analyst and ZiPS projections proprietor Dan Szymborski joins Steve to talk about the art of player projections, plus integration, an awkward moment at the doctor’s office, and World War II deflects Buddy Lewis from both the Hall of Fame and the game itself.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A question of courage: Jackie Robinson, Vic Power, Elston Howard, Panglossian racism*What Buddy Lewis saw*Dan Szymborski: Projections of spring*“Deadly Accurate”*PECOTA PTSD*Advances in projection systems*Projecting Aaron Judge*The useable universe of ballplayers*The Pacific Coast League in the 1920s*Filling in Ted Williams’ war years using retro-projections*Projecting Rafael Palmeiro in 2018*Projecting older players*The Rule of Backup Catchers*Herm Winningham?*Are projection systems making the draft more rational?*“You can always tell an old usenet person”*Sabermetrics won*WAR*A statistician’s education*Inventing ZiPS*Holding projections accountable (and letting them off the hook)*Ryon Healy’s zero WAR projection*Projecting the 2018 Yankees bullpen*Projecting relievers*Projecting Shohei Otani*ZiPS vs. Law*Goodbyes.