The Battle Over Impeachment

0:00Welcome to Real Clear Politics on the Megan Kelly Channel, Syria's XM 111. Welcome to Real Clear Politics on Syria's XM. For Wednesday, September 16th, I'm Andrew Walworth. Joining me are RCP President and co-founder Tom Bevin and Washington Bureau Chief Carl Cannon. One guy is there were a couple of votes on the Hill yesterday, outgoing Texas Democrat Al Green, made one more attempt to impeach Donald Trump. This is his eighth try. It failed. And failed in part because 18 Democrats voted with Republicans to table the resolution. Another 46 voted present. But this is kind of just a preview of what may be happening after November. Here is minority leader Hachim Jeffries talking about what Democrats will do if they take the House.

1:03You said hold the crooks accountable. Does that mean that the House is going to be pursuing impeachment proceedings on day one? No, we haven't ruled anything in and we haven't ruled anything out in terms of impeachment. As it relates to accountability, what we're going to do led by Jamie Raskin and House Committee, Democrats on the judiciary committee, as well as House Democrats on the oversight committee led by Robert Garcia, both of them are doing a tremendous job. We've got to follow the facts applied to law, be guided by the Constitution and then let the chips fall where they may. So Tom, you know, it's just going to be a good old fashioned process here. Chips will fall where they may. What do you make of the Hachim Jeffries summary of this situation? It's like this impeachment vote is like, it's like an alcoholic, you know, not taking a drink for, you know, I'm going to go weak. Be on the wagon for a week. I mean, 147 Democrats voted in favor.

2:07I'm sorry, against tabling this resolution. That's 69% of the Democratic caucus. Another 21% as you mentioned, 46 Democrats voted present. What is voting present mean? It means like, I'm not really going to take a stance on this. All of those are guest votes. OK. So they're really, it was portrayed in the press as like Democrats break ranks to stop, you know, impeachment against Trump. It's like 18% or 18 Democrats is all out of 214 are the ones who actually would say stand up and say, no, we're voting not to impeach Trump. We're voting to table this motion. The rest of them are all in favor of it. And so as soon as they get control, no matter what he, Kim Jeffrey says he's going to, they're going to belly right up to the bar and start pounding drinks. I mean, they are going to impeach him. And of course, they are going to do all other oversight stuff. There's no question about it. I mean, that's part of what winning the House means is it's going to make, it's going to make the next two years miserable for Donald Trump. All the members of administration members of his family, they're going to get subpoenas.

3:08They're going to have to spend thousands and tens of thousands dollars on lawyers. So the Democrats, this to me was just an indication that yes, they are going to impeach Trump. And we, I think that's not really news to anyone. Yeah. Jamie Raskin, Coral said this last week, he was talking to NBC, he said about, he's talking about impeachment. He said, it is not a fetish with us. We understand it's not a panacea. It's a tool in the toolbox. We will no one hesitate to use it if we need to use it. Kind of an interesting formulation there. I mean, is impeachment really just another tool in the toolbox? Because that, that seems to be what it's become. Well, you know, Bill Clinton was impeached by the House Republicans. The Senate did not convict. And people weren't at the time. You know, this is cheap in the process. Now you have Trump's already, the House impeached Trump twice in his first term. Correct. One of them was over a really a bogus thing, kind of a almost, you know, something.

4:14I don't, you don't want to sound like, you know, a right wing, you know, swamp, denison, but you know, the deep state sort of conjured up this, this cause, this cause of action that Trump had been insufficiently supportive of Ukraine and a phone call was in Lensky. In hindsight, it seems like a joke. And it backfired on them and it made them. Yes, impeachment, your question, yeah, impeachment is now a tool, a partisan tool, but that dulled the tool that made the Democrats look bad. It's one of the reasons Trump weathered the second impeachment over over the January 6, which might have been, which might have been treated more seriously, except for two things. One, he was leaving office anyway, so it didn't matter. The second one is that they'd already done this impeachment. So I keep Jeffries and Jamie Ress going to write to be cautious and to be measured in how they speak about it. But Tom is right. This, this shows it, Jeffries is not going to be able to stop this.

5:15The Democrats demand it. Democrats in the grassroots demand it and they demand it in primaries. And so you've got democratic candidates going around, most of them being careful, but not all of them. And, you know, out this Al Green thing, he's leaving, he got primary. He's the guy who heckled Trump. He's considered a crackpot. But, you know, most of the Democrats are willing to follow a crackpot. So when, when they, if they take over the House and all three of us expect that, that to happen, they'll be these hearings and they will be, they will, they will try and elicit information this time that they think gets a majority of American people behind it. They, they would like to drive Donald Trump from office. And I think my, I don't know what they'll look at, but they've been saying they want to look at this corruption. They want to look at the insider deals where Trump and his sons and his son and law have been profited personally while doing diplomacy. And the other thing I think they're going to look at, they haven't talked much about it is, is, is

6:19Pete Hicksett. I think they want to go after the Pentagon and they want answers. They want to build a case that the Trump administration flouted international law, maybe not in Iran, but maybe with these votes, they blew up off the coast of Venezuela. But that's the other thing that they're, they're clearly motivated to do. So yeah, it's happening. It's going to, if you go vote for, if you vote for a Democrat in November, you're voting for impeachment. And I think most Democrats know that and I think they're content with it. The, when you say it's an interesting formulation, the word that jumped out of me is fetish, which is, yeah, it's like a, well, he said it wasn't a full obsession. Yeah, he tried to say it wasn't a fetish, but like, that's an interesting way of describing this. And it actually is a fetish in the sense that this is one of the, this is one of the Democrats like a Roger's zones. I mean, it's like, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, I'm sorry. Now you, are you saying they're sex addicts as well as being alcoholics? Yes. It's metaphors galore here today. Okay.

7:21So Jeffries, the minority whip, Catherine Clark, Democratic caucus, caucus, Jirpita Aguilar, they did put out a joint statement. I think they all might have abstained on the, or voted present on this, but they said we commit to holding the crooks accountable using every tool available to us beginning on day one. That was a joint statement. Well, Andy, what that statement means is to represent green and his thing is not yet, you gotta wait, you gotta wait two months. Yeah. That's what that means, right? Yeah. There was a move, an introduction to, you referred to it to impeach the Secretary of War. That came up on the House as well from a Republican. But you, do you, do you really count Tom Messia as a Republican? I, if he's got an R after his name, yes, I do think he's a libertarian, but go ahead. Well, he's, he's said, you can ask him, but if you call himself a Republican, any caucus is a Republican, he's a Republican, and on at least from your hosts. On this show,

8:27just from my point of view. But, you know, Tom, what do you make of this? Because impeaching the Secretary of Defense, I don't even understand how that works. He's a cabinet official. He's working at the past of the president. You know, unless he's doing something rogue that the president doesn't like, in which case the Republican, I mean, the president should fire him. What's the point of impeaching him? Yeah, I don't, this, this seems like a gimmick, obviously, and Tom Messia's sort of known for gimmicks and, and, you know, doing them to, to great effect to win him some, himself some, some, you know, attention in the media, and that seems to be what this is. So, I don't, I don't make much of it. Nothing's going to come of it. Although, I do think, you know, Pete Hague Seth is going to be a focus if Democrats do win control of the House. I agree, Carl. He'll be one of the main focuses. As far as cabinet secretaries go, he's going to be hauled

9:31before the committees and forced to, you know, testify under oath about a whole bunch of stuff. Right. Another vote, as long as we're supposed to go sort of vote a Rama on this first segment, it's the third time the House voted to quote end the war in Iran. They approved this war power resolution. Seven Republicans voted with the Democrats on this quarrel. I won't list them, but Tom Barrett is among them. Nancy Mays, Thomas Massey, surprise surprise, Zach Known from Iowa. What are the politics of this? Because are these Republicans, not all of whom are running for re-election, some of them are leaving? But is this part of sort of moving away from Trump and the war sort of signals some independence? What's going on? Well, Nancy Mays and Tom Massey are both leaving. They saw the higher office and got beat and they've had public beef with the president. Five out of your caucus, no, that's not a movement, but there is widespread concern about this war in the country and not just among

10:40Democrats. People are wondering, what's next? The president has to this day, not given a prime time over the office address and explained it. He's been going around saying it, campaign style rallies are in snippets to the right. He has to have this prime time address. That's such a point idea. I'm not asking for it anymore. It talks about it all the time. What I'm saying is that he's been going around proclaiming that after the midterms, he'll deal with Iran, which is an odd formulation. I remember Barack Obama did something like that with Russia. Give me some room here. Then I'll capitulate to Russia after the election. I don't know what he meant. We never really found out. But this is a similar thing to that. That the president thinks he'll have more maneuverability after the midterms strikes me as, well, unrealistic. Well, look, it's just another example of the war is, I mean, in some ways, it's kind of mirrors,

11:45I think, the Republican Party writ large, which is you've got a small portion. Maybe it's 15, 20 percent that disapprove of the war itself. Trump's handling of war, the decision to go to war. They feel betrayed by him. Then the rest of the Republican Party is still hanging with Trump. Even though I'm sure there's a lot of discomfort there about how long it's lasted, when's it going to end, how's it going to end, and what's happening in the meantime, which is, we're suffering $100 a barrel oil and $5 gallon gas. It doesn't seem like it's going to be ending anytime soon. Well, you leave in Illinois. It's $5 there because that's partly because the Democrats are running your state. It's not $5 here. I paid $4.39 at Costco the other day. That's about as cheap as you can get gas, I think, in the state of Illinois, or not in the state, in the

12:47Chicago land area. Let's put it that way. To Andy's point, in your point, Tom, I think that you ask, Polsters ask questions. Do you prove or disprove the president's handling the war? It seems like a very straightforward question. But Americans who answer these polls know how polls are used. And I think Republicans still want to support their president because they don't want to hamstring him. But I think maybe the angst over this war is broader than the polls show among Republicans. That'd be my guess. I think you're right. I mean, I actually, just from my conversations, just anecdotally, when I talk to Republicans, I hear a lot of concern about the war. The first thing comes out, well, there's the war and then go on to other stuff. But the politics of this, I guess, Tom right now, again, this impeachment, I mean, not this impeachment, but this War Powers Act, vote just sort of brought it back into the forward, something that the White House would rather

13:50not talk about it. They didn't talk about it at the midterm convention, tried to ignore it as much as possible. But it's pretty hard to ignore it on the campaign trail. Yeah, that's right. I mean, it's sort of the cloud that's hanging over everything. And even if it isn't spoken about, it's the unspoken issue that's hanging out there. And as I said, it could cross us over into the economy in ways that directly impact what people are anxious about here at home. So it's not a great issue. It hasn't been a great issue for Trump since the day it started. Could have been a, you know, if they if it actually had lasted four or six weeks and even if it hadn't ended in total victory, but it ended with something like an agreement that held, it would be in the rearview mirror now and probably not nearly as problematic as it is right now. And what the other interesting thing is, you know, if it doesn't end in six more weeks or six months, I mean,

14:57this is, you know, 2028 starts immediately. JD Vance and Marco Ruby are going to have to, that is something that they will also be confronted with on the campaign trail as they try and lay out their vision for the future. And how they would end that war if if, you know, Trump's not able to do it, that's going to be a very tough tricky situation for them, you know, because they don't want to, they don't want to piss off the big boy upstairs by talking about how badly the war has gone or how it wasn't able to get resolved. Yeah. And to that point, I mean, in a debate, it's the first question they'd be asked, you know, what is your plan to prevent? Right? God, yes, if we're still at war in Iran in two years time, that will be, I guess it's not even two years time. I don't know if it's a jam, a campaign starts tomorrow. Yeah. Yeah. The debates would be a year away or something. Yeah. Right. It would be hard for either one of them to run away from the war at

16:02this point. I mean, they're both, I mean, Vance, I guess, has tried to do that or tried to draw a little room between him and the president on this. You at least that was sort of the thought behind those articles that ran the Washington Post in New York Times. Wait a minute, you say they both be compromised? Are you about to mention Nikki Haley? Because I was shouted down last time I did that on this program. Oh God. Yes. Nikki Haley. She had nothing to do with this war. Carl, do you want to make a bet on Nikki Haley? No, no, no, I just like teasing you guys. I don't want to lose more wine. All right. Hey, we're going to take a break. You're listening to Real Cleopolitics on Series XM and and Walt. I've got Carl and Tom with me and Susan Crabtary our National Political Respondent. We'll be joining us in the next block. So stick around for that.

17:02We'll be back after this. It's real. It's clear. And it's on the Megan Kelley channel. It's real clear politics. Series XM 111. Inform viewpoints spanning the ideological spectrum. You're listening to real clear politics on the Megan Kelley channel. Series XM 111. Welcome back to Real Clear Politics on Series XM. I'm Andrew Walworth. I've got Tom and Carl with me and we are joined as we are occasionally by the great Susan Crabtary. She is RCP's National Political Respondent. And Susan, you've got this piece on the front page today. It's about the California governor's race. The first debate is coming up. September 30th, I believe. You talked to Steve Hilton about his campaign effort. What did you learn? And in particular, what is his response to the Democratic ballot harvesting, which is legal in California in a

18:06big part of the Democrats strategy? Well, he know Steve Hilton has really surprised me and a lot of people in California because he just keeps charging through. He's just undaunted by the odds. And the latest UC Berkeley poll said 18 points. Then his own personal poll he released said he had closed that narrowed that gap to eight points. But he just keeps going and going like the Energizer Bunny. And he told me he said it this up. He hadn't spratts people are now on his team who did those AI advertisements. And he's cast this as him against the Democratic machine in California. I know he had the AI fighting this robot, this huge robot machine. And it was a pretty good ad. And he just is saying he's going to build a ballot harvesting machine. He's going to challenge the Democratic turnout operation in California, which I think you know, I'd like to see what he's he doesn't want to reveal his full strategy. I talked to his press secretary

19:10after it and said, what do you mean by this? And he says we're going to work with faith-based organizations. And he's working with Carl Demayo, who's a state senator assemblyman, husband assemblyman who has a operation statewide called reform California. So we'll see. I have yet to sort of see any kind of development about this, whether it's going to be house parties. What what what form is it's going to take? So that's yet to be determined. Well, it's hard to beat the Democrats going down a skid row and going through the nursing homes and collecting thousands of names of people, turning them in. I mean, it's you know, they're going to do that in Los Angeles again, just the way they did in the marriage race, right? Well, yeah, but and just you know, we talked about you mentioned the polls in the RCP average, the share is up 21% 20 points, rather. Polly Markets has Bashar at 94%. So I'm not even sure that they'd have to do a lot of ballot harvesting to win this thing. At least that's the way it looks

20:14right now, Susan. So it's it does look like it doesn't look good for him at this point. No, I do think he's changed the nature of the debate in California. So I give that to him and he certainly you know, came up with policy proposal. He's rolling them out day after day. His latest and he's going to have $3 gasoline. He's going to get rid of the tax taxes on gasoline and the requirements, the green requirements that you know, make it to be about about six hovering around 650 in places where I live. And he also has an new policy proposal to get rid of the DMV privatize it. That's hugely popular. So he is not for lack of trying and for lack of operation and organization on his part and energy, but you know, the odds are just bad. And it's two to one Democratic. He's got to win all the he has to win all the Republican. He has to turn out every Republican. And he has to also win the non party preference in California, which sues Democratic. So it leans Democratic. So

21:20yeah, the odds are stacked against him, but he has really changed the nature of debate. I've never seen any politician in California since I've lived here since 2017 really provide this type of aggressive campaigning. Usually it's a sort of language affair where it's like a you know, four-gun conclusion who's going to win. And you know, and Biserra, a Javier Biserra has been very run a very sleepy campaign this summer. He's you know, he's basically aged. It's the same kind of operation we saw with Biden in 2020. Now he's sort of been an distant reporter. He's trying to get him to say anything. They're trailing him. He's putting them off. It's not a good look. He's playing hide the ball. Yeah, it's not. So that was that was going to be my question, which was, you know, this was a race that really did get a lot of national attention along with the mayor's race leading into the prime. But it's kind of disappeared off the national map. We don't really hear a lot about what's going on out there. So is it still, I mean, are there

22:22Steve Hilton have enough money? Is he running ads? Is there still some interest in California around this race or has it kind of just dissipated to the point where people are maybe they're kind of, you know, seeing a little bit about it here and there. But for the most part, it's kind of disappeared. Yeah, well, it disappeared. You know, Californians, they do not pay attention to politics until right before the election. So I do think having this debate is going to wake some people up. But it's kind of a double edged short because you're waiting until September 30th to have a debate. And then you have to have to play catch up really, really quickly. So, you know, a lot of people are saying that's a foregone conclusion that the Sarah is going to win. But his AI ad was right in that it was not supposed to be a Biserro win here. You know, we had a complete debacle in the primary. And you know, this was, he was not even a second choice. He was like a third choice. And you have Biden administration people saying, you know, complaining about his record at HHS where he

23:27lost all those children and some of them were sex trafficked and some of them were in put into work positions where they got hurt. And it's it it's sad. It's a sad state of affairs. But we had the other day and the LA Times got a county name wrong in and it was a, I mean, that's the state of political journalism and politics. Wait, what did that? What are the LA Times do? They said Manchester City County. They were talking about fires and they called it Minnesota County. And as you know, Carl, there is no Minnesota County. It's Santa Barbara. And menacito is an independent state. There's a Mendocino County. Maybe they get that's exactly what it's about the Oregon border. Yeah, there's 50 counties in California. So, but if it's just was a sat, it's a sort of sad state of what's going on in California right now. You have one party, super majorities in the legislatures. You don't have a system where people are getting their newspapers delivered to their front door anymore. And people are past the legislatures passing

24:32things that people are stunned by. Like they're going to allow sex people with felonies for sexual predator behavior for children, run for office. And suddenly you're like, what why are we allowing this to happen? And you have, you know, the Nick Shirley Ag passing and they're cracking down on investigative journalism. Meanwhile, you have a lot of investigative journalism going on. We just had the feds, the FBI just announced 12 arrests in San Diego for ghost daycares, just like what's going on in Minneapolis. It's happening in San Diego County. So, you know, we need more journalism, more sunlight, more debate. And I'm at least I'm glad that Steve Hilton has brought that. He's brought an aggressive campaign that we haven't seen for years. So you mentioned the $3 gas and getting with the DMV. I mean, those are pretty interesting issues, I guess. But is what's missing here that galvanizing issue that would really, you know,

25:34make this a real race again? Because, you know, we're talking about the mayor's race as well, in LA where there was sort of like the fires. And you could sort of focus on that. And that really gave some, you know, some real friction to the race. I don't feel that in this race. I don't feel like there's one issue that sort of has gotten people going. And I think Bashar is running this Ruppetdup campaign, which is a big total sense. I mean, if I were up 20 points, it isn't the whole point to try to like not make any mistakes and, you know, coast of victory. Yes. But Andy, but Bashar is running a campaign, it's a sort of normy Democratic campaign. Hilton is running, he's trying to inject energy into the whole Republican party out there, not just this race. And I think that what he, well, Susan talked to him. I'll let her speak to this, but what he's saying, the big picture, it's not one issue, but the big picture is Democratic competence. And, you know,

26:36homelessness, the trains, you know, the sclerus of the government, this, this, just idea that Democrats can't perform anymore, that they're that they've gotten lazy and arrogant and that they don't really care. And, and to that sense, I think what you're saying, what's what I hear Susan saying is that in some ways, as if your Bissera is playing into that by running the sort of the normy Ruppetdup campaign, he's playing into that narrative. So in that sense, Hilton's argument is going unreputted. Susan? Yeah, it absolutely is. And the Republican party out here is falling apart. We had a scandal recently with somebody who was fired and she stole a bunch of information from their database. It's just it's a component party. He's not, Steven Hilton's not getting help, any help from them. And what I talked to the Los Angeles County chair of the party, she says, you know, everybody comes out, Republicans come out here to California, use California as a bank

27:38for their political operations and don't invest any voter registration and any galvanizing efforts out here. They've just written California off. So, you know, that's the, that's the stakes where we, you know, the the Republican party faces in California. And so I, Steve Hilton needs to do live stream events on Facebook. He needs to, you know, have these house parties. He needs to generate some kind of momentum for getting out the vote. And so far, I haven't seen it, but he's promising that we'll come, you know, stay tuned. Well, I do want to ask you about what we talked about yesterday, but now I can't get enough of this story. I'm sorry. So I'm going to ask Susan because she you know so much about California politics. And of course, it's, you know, fishing with Gavin. It's the statement that he made to CNN while sitting there fly fishing that if Kamala Harris gets in the race in 2028, doesn't make any sense for him to get in. And of course, he won't run against her.

28:41Kind of stunned the political world. I'd certainly stunned me. And he defended him as he's want to do. But I'm wondering Susan, you are a true California whisperer. Tell us what the heck is going on? What's the strategy here? Well, other than it being like a ness and else, kid. I know Jake Taffer. I've known him for years. We're friendly. Or we were. And, you know, I wrote a book about Gavin Newsome. So this is not surprised me in the least bit that they, this was filmed a month ago. So why are we just hearing about it now? Because it's all staged. You know, this issue of him, basically deferring to Kamala Harris is out of necessity. Because Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsome have a front of me relationship. They actually hate each other. And there, I read about this in my book. I think for Bookler politics too. Back in, you know, early 2010s, there was a time magazine,

29:47or I think it was a national magazine article that came out and ranked the up and coming Democrats in across the nation. And they were mad. Kamala Harris's people were mad that Gavin Newsome was included and vice versa. And they were spilling on each other, the dirt on one another. And this is, they said, Gavin Newsome said mutually assured destruction. It would be if he ran. And because he knows he went to South Carolina recently, he knows that she's going to play as a black woman very well there. And he will have a hard time. So you know, they know where each other's baggage lies. You know where the bodies are buried. And they're going to dig them up. I, you saw this when she was coordinated during the convention. And he was on Pod Save America. And he said, they told me I have to say this is a democratic process, small deep process. You know, ha, ha, ha. It wasn't basically it's why he was saying. And he was mad that she leapfrogged over him. Because he was,

30:48because he was coming to Biden's defense constantly about his mental acuity. And he was one of the Biden's cheerleaders. So this is just bad blood between the two of them. They've tried to be kind of one another at least publicly. And but you know, behind the scenes, it's, it's blood sport between the two of them. And it will get very, very ugly. So he's doing this out of necessity, not out of DEI. And maybe it's because the party with the situation and the party is, but he also is worried what she's going to bring up about him and vice versa. Hmm. Carl, do you have, does that square with your understanding of what's going on? And then I want this time. There, look, they're, I said yesterday, they're, they've been too close. Uh, you know, they, they, they come from the same city. It's a small city. And they have the same donors. They have the same friends. They have been always cordial. You know, sometimes frosty, but sometimes cordial. There's never been a crossword in public. She, she put some snarky thing in her

31:51book about Newsom. It wasn't even true. But they've kept it on a civil basis. But what Susan saying is they wouldn't be able to do that if they were both running. And what Gavin thinks is that it would be, you know, they'd take each other out. And so he, what he's saying is it's, it's what I believe he's, I'm just taking a face value. It's impractical for them, impractable, impractical for them to both run. Yeah. And who, okay. Okay. I get it. Okay. Well, the park that's about to surprise me. That's Tom. Okay. Because I want to get Tom in here. We, we, I get it. Tom, the part, the part I was surprising that I'd like you guys to address in Susan is why would, if he's right that they both can't run, why would he give her first choice? That's that is my question that I didn't understand. Yeah. It doesn't make any sense. Right? It's like, why, why doesn't, you know, why wouldn't he have the same leverage over her? Which is like, I'm running. It would actually make more sense. Because she, the vice president and the previous owner, no, no, no, it would actually, it would actually make more sense to say, okay, listen,

32:54we're both going to run. But let's, let's just have a little truth between us. We're not going to dump any dirt and, you know, may the best politician win. I mean, well, if he's got, if he's got dirt on her, who's to say he doesn't come out the victor? I mean, I just don't, it makes no sense to me why he would unilaterally walk away, disarm, give her, who, again, as mentioned yesterday, two-time loser already, you know, a third chance when he hasn't even ran once yet. And he has as much a claim to that, maybe even more than she does as, as a governor of the largest state in the country. I mean, you can argue about his record and whatnot. But like in terms of a Democratic primary, he's, he's every bit qualified to run for that nomination. And you be a, you know, formidable candidate. So I don't get it. I don't, I still don't understand it. I'm not buying any of this other BS about, you know, I just don't, there's, there's got to be a reason behind it, but I don't think we found it yet. Yeah. I'm sort of with, with, with Tom on

33:58this, because it doesn't make any sense to me. I understand that objectively, if you were sitting outside of this, you might say, boy, they're going to sort of like, you know, it's gingham dog, calc, or cat. They're going to same donor base. I get all that. But then for one of the, for the gingham dog to say, oh, you know, by the way, I'm letting the cat like, you know, if the, if the cat wants to play, I'm staying home. It just, it just, either Susan, he, he really wants out and he can't, he thinks he's going to lose, and he's looking for a way to sort of get out gracefully, or something else. And I can't figure out what that something else is, because I don't believe that he wants to get out. Well, I think you got, okay, I'm going to put the dirt aside between the two of them. But let's just say he wants to be, he wants the donors to pick him. He wants the people to have a referendum, and he wants that he, to come from the outside. So it looks like he's being drafted, because she's such a weak candidate, and we've already seen her. She's already had her

35:01chance as Jake meant to have her mention. You know, that's the, that's the public read of it. I, I think that's my take that if he wants to run, he wants people to say run Gavin run. Instead of, we've already done with it, we're already done with her because he just went to South Carolina. Carl's been saying that for a year. So I don't know, maybe Gavin hasn't been listening to you, Carl. He may want someone to say, and he's got a little more money than me. So Susan, we got a few minutes left here. What happens now? Does he, does he stay in the race? Does, does she announce, you know, tomorrow? And he, he says, okay, I'm out. How does he recover from this? He, too, because if I'm a Democrat, and I'm running against, so I'm saying, look, this guy wouldn't even stand up. You know, he didn't even think he was the best guy to be president of the United States. He thought she would be better, and she's dropped that. I mean, I don't see how, how he wins. Well, I think, Gavin Madden, who worked for Vayner, other top politicians in Washington,

36:06I thought his take was interesting. He said, you know, it's just like when you're running for student body president, you've got to ask the vote and believe in yourself. You know, you've got to make the case that you're the, you're the person and the first person you have, you have to convince yourself. Yeah. So, so he's deferring to the donors. He's deferring to the party leaders, and he wants to be anointed like she was. And, you know, honestly, back what's going on back home in California is that he's a lame duck, and he just had a really big debacle here over the wildfire liability, and his party turned against him in the state legislature, and then he shut it all down and said he's going to announce a special session and make sure they go back to work because he's siding with the utilities. I have a lot of this in my book over the insurance companies, and the wildfire victims are getting really, really hurt in the process. So the state legislature cited against him. And so they're having, he's a lame duck. He wants some adulation from the outside

37:09to tell him, I want you to run because I really don't think, I think it scared him when he went to South Carolina, and he, that there was a lot of reporting about that he had about 100 people in the rooms who were attending, but he didn't have an overwhelming support there. And he knows she would because Jim Clyburn was the one that said that that Kamala Harris should be the pick in the, during the last cycle. And he also made Joe Biden as we recall over Bernie Sanders. You know, he, he is the kingmaker in South Carolina, and the party is putting South Carolina first, and that gives them a lot of power in that state. And he, he's not going to play against Kamala very well there. Yeah, all right, Susan, as ever, great to have you on the show. Could you hear your analysis? I'm in Walworth. I've had Carl Cannon and Tom Ben with me. We'll be back right after this. Stick around. This is real clear politics on the Macon Kelly channel, Syria's XM 111.

38:16Welcome back to Real Clear Politics on the Macon Kelly channel, Syria's XM 111. Welcome back to Real Clear Politics on Syria's XM. I mean, and Walworth, I've got Tom Bevin and Carl Cannon with me. And Tom, you're mayor, Mayor Brandon Johnson, Chicago. He wants four more years to finish the job he's been doing. The mayor election in Chicago is actually on February 23rd of next year, kind of an odd date, but that's what they do out in Chicago. Here is the mayor talking about his bid and also a little bit of a TikTok campaign video, who released for some reason, of him dancing. So just listen to this. You're ready for four more years, Chicago. You're ready to make sure that Chicago stays on the pad to be the safest, most affordable, big city of America on your with me, Chicago.

39:30You have to go to the Facebook page to see the video because you're not watching this video. I'm on YouTube. You can find it on YouTube. Yeah, watch it on YouTube because it's about the most cringey video. There's nothing I love more than politicians dancing and trying to like take advantage of the, you know, the social media craze. It's just always so Christian. Remember when Gretchen Whitworth was like eating that Dorito on her knees with that? I mean, it's just like, what are you doing? Stop it. This is not what we want. I will say that's true. At the same time, I will say he's not a bad dancer. I'll give him that. He's a better dancer than he is mayor. That's for sure. Low bar pal. Look, it's funny because he got up there and promised four more years of the same. And he's like, you know, are you guys, are you with me? Well, according to the latest polls, 77% of Chicagoans are not with him. They disapprove of the job that he's

40:33doing as mayor. His approval rings 23% I think in the latest poll. He is not going to win re-election. And he may not even make a run up. So what they do is, right, it's a nonpartisan election. So everybody runs in the same group. And as you mentioned, they put the election on off years in the middle of winter. So it's super low turnout. So it helps the machine control the, you know, who gets the, gets the win. And that's what they did with Brian and Johnson last. And the Chicago teachers union is effectively just a, a stooge of the teachers unions. If nobody gets over 50% that it goes to like an April early April runoff, I think. And I don't even think Brandon Johnson, if the election were held today, now I don't, maybe he's able to somehow improve his standing, but the election were held today. He wouldn't, he wouldn't even make the run off. He wouldn't even be in the top two. There are a bunch of people that are running Susanna Mendoza. She's a good

41:33candidate. You've got Alexi Giannullis, who is very well known former secretary of state. And so he's he's been running John Kelly's running as a sort of law and order Democrat. So there's a, there's a decent amount of people that, because Brandon Johnson is, he's a political dead man walking, which is why you've got a bunch of people who are going to run against him. And so it'll be interesting to see him try and, you know, spin his four years as best he can. But I think at the end of the day, I just don't see any, any way, even with the backing of the teachers union, that this guy is going to get the nod for four more years. We know, Andy and I don't live there. Right. But what he's known for, what we see him is, is he's lashing out at reporters and, you know, and treating any criticism of him as a racial attack. That's kind of why he's known for outside Chicago. What are the issues in, in said Chicago that drive is it, is it the tax increases on property taxes? Why, why is he so impopuous? What I'm asking you? It's, it's tax

42:35increases. They spend an awful lot of money during COVID on, in post COVID on, on illegal immigrants. So there's a lot of tension in the black community. I know he says crime is down. I think crime is down overall, but you still have, you know, homicides are down, but you still have, you know, crime happening in different neighborhoods. So, you know, he's, he's managed to drive businesses out of Chicago. I mean, he's, he is a very, very left-wing guy. He's not particularly competent in terms of managing. He's never managed anything before and he's not doing a very good job. And to put it, you know, to your point, Carl, I mean, his, he happens to combine all of these terrible qualities with a sort of hyperracial lens and a thin skinness that, you know, any criticism of him is, is treated as some sort of racial attack. I mean, it's just not a good look and, and

43:35that's why he's approving his downward is because when you get down that low, I mean, you, you, have alienated and angered an awful lot of people across the political spectrum, across the sort of economic spectrum, across the racial spectrum. But if he's got the backing of the teachers union, and, uh, my understanding that you listed that candidates, most of those candidates are, are sort of to the, or maybe all of them are to the right of him, right? I mean, they're more centrist or traditional Democrats. I mean, does he have a challenger from the left? Because in these runoff elections, it seems to me that the argument might be, or the playbook might be, hey, I'm going to, I got the teachers union, uh, it's February, um, and there's no one to the left of me. So if I can just just get on the runoff ballot as the most lefty guy here, uh, in a year, uh, where the DSA is ascended, might be, might be a winning strategy. I mean, I just, I get it. And, you know, you, you divide all these other, all these other candidates divide up the vote, divide up the lanes and,

44:38and he manages to squeak through. Remember, he just barely squeak through the first time around because of the senior's usually backing. He almost lost to Paul Vales. Um, so I, I just don't, I don't know. And he, at that point, he was sort of an unknown quantity. And I think people had, you know, expectations or hopes that he could be good, um, even though, you know, our previous mayor, Lori Lightfoot left office, you know, in, in, uh, she was not thought highly of either. So, I just don't know the, with the record that he has, um, and, and it's going to be very, very hard for him. Unless he manages to look, again, we're what six months away from the election or something. So he's got time to turn it around, but it would require an awful lot to, to, um, you know, turn that ship around and get his approval rating back up anywhere near 50%. Oh, five thousand dollar checks like the president. Yeah. That's a good idea. Yeah. Hey, um, we got a few minutes left here. I want to talk about Ed Sheeran of all things. He's got this

45:41concert toward, there's a dust up. Uh, in case you missed this, the rapper, Macklemore, uh, was kicked off the tour, uh, as one of the opening acts because of his pro-Palestinian statements from the stage. Uh, this move to get him off the tour was organized, they say by Robert Kraft, Ramon's Gillette Stadium in Massachusetts. Uh, now all the sporting acts for the tour have pulled out in support of Macklemore. There's lots of pressure on Ed Sheeran, uh, to weigh in. So here, let's listen to this. This is part of what Macklemore said that got embudied from the tour. And, of course, uh, Alexandria, Ocasia, Cortez, wasted no time in weighing in. So listen to these two statements. So I say free Palestine. I say free Lebanon. I say free Cuba. I say free Congo. Free Sudan. Free all people in America living in fear over this terrorist organization ice. Hey, if Ed Sheeran comes on the radio, all you're driving along, are you changing the channels?

46:45I am. You are? Yeah. So, uh, you know, Carl, I'm reminded AOC said just a little while I go that woke one was crazy. Uh, well, too looks pretty much like woke one. I mean, you get canceled for this right away. Um, what do you make? What's going on? Well, yeah. So she, he's, Macklemore gets canceled. So then the other groups cancel themselves. So then she's going to cancel Ed Sheeran. It starts to be hard to keep track of what's happening. He, this was, he was not choice for Ed Sheeran to begin with because this is not new to him. There's pictures on the Twitter's and people can find him on him dressing up, uh, you know, in a garb, you know, making racist shocking costume. He's got on the side. I think he knows. And he's a big, big, big, weird. It's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's big, it treats. And, and you know, when he says, you know, he's got this, he's a, he has a woke leftist with an incoherent political

47:47philosophy free everybody. You know, I, I like, I would like Palestinians to be free. They need to be free from Hamas, which is the, the, you know, they voted for him, but they only voted for him once. And now it's a, you know, this tyrannical organization. Um, and he repeats the genocide canard and, you know, all, it's all the normal stuff. The question, why, why was he with Ed Sheeran to begin with? This is not what Sheeran was doing on this tour. Well, it turns out they're friends. Maclamore and Ed Sheeran are friends and Ed Sheeran is pretty apolitical, but he's a unifying guy. His friends and different camps, different political camps. And you know, I, I, Maclamore was pushing it. I don't know why. But, but if you're, but this is who Maclamore is. This was not what shocked that he came out and said this sort of stuff. This is part of his brand. Yeah. But it's not much different than Bruce Springsteen was going around saying. I mean, yeah, that's true. I, I guess there's not one word that guy said that I have ever agreed with Maclamore. But I guess, but I don't know

48:51certainly where should have been canceled. I don't, I, I, well, Winston, Winston Marshall, who was, who was kicked out of the band Mumford and Sons, because he, I think tweeted something positive about Andy Knows book a couple of years ago. Yeah. He posted this a few hours ago. He said, quote, so now the music industry is pro free speech again. And this guy was the turning point. What a time to be alive. Yeah. And it's a picture of him in that. And you exactly. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. I wonder how AOC is going to have to defend this when that picture gets that kind of exposure to serves. We don't really know if she knows even we had Sharon is though I before this. Everyone knows who I hear it. Maybe I'll be her kind of music. Well, we'll find that. Anyway, that's our program for today. We should add more time to talk about this. If you're listening on the podcast apps or watching on YouTube, subscribe, send us a comment. We'd love to hear what you have to say about the Ed Sheeran thing. I'm Andrew

49:53Wallworth on behalf of everyone here at RCP. Thank you for joining us. We'll be back here tomorrow. And hope to see you that.