Texas Votes: Crockett vs. Talarico! How MAGA Will Texas Go?

0:00What's up everybody? It's an election night. I love an election night I used to really love election nights until Donald Trump started winning elections and they're a little triggering now But I do I do still love them deep down inside. I'm Tim Miller. I'm here at Sarah Longwell publisher of the Bullwork JBL Editor author of the Triad newsletter love our girl Lauren Egan coming in here in a little bit She's been covering the Dems and we just want to do a live Live podcast live streaming with you on a big election night Set the table here Big win for the eight-year-old girls basketball team. I go to honey bad just tonight. I don't know. It's what you guys agree to hear about It's been a tough season, but things are clicking right as we get to play off. I'm okay anyway. Tim's working the refs That's why I was working I was working the rest and it was working baby. We got a big W tonight. Okay on to the actual news. You're here for the The Texas Senate race is on both sides is the one that we're most focused on the a couple other races We're monitoring

1:00Returns are coming in on both the Republican and the Democratic side We had a delay. I guess the big news of the night is that in Dallas County They're probably don't know how to run elections. They don't care. I don't know if this is this kind of news to you guys But in Dallas County, that was like mass voter confusion One of my buddies lives there. So I was texting about it. It's like the the vote at the election site was down If you the a lot of places where people usually went to vote you want a lot to vote there Because they changed the rules. You had to go to your precinct and a lot of people will try to vote weren't able to so they extended it now or I think that in particular. I think jasmine krakens campaign is interested in that because it's our home base It's our base of support in Dallas So that might delay us a little bit tonight. That's the big news The early results here We're looking pretty favorable for James telerico just to be blunt Not over yet But if you look at the kalshi prediction markets They basically called it for telerico already Dave Wasserman over at this Over at Kirk political Is very sober mind that he says it's looking like telerico the broad swaths of that and then I'll go you guys kind of weigh in

2:06Is krakens continues to be well with a voting base of black voters older black voters in particular She's doing well in a lot of counties that Joe Biden did well in in the 2020 Texas primary where he Beat uh Bernie, but it was a more of a those a bigger field right so a lot of other other other vote was fractured Talrico is doing well as expected like around austin. He's running upside down. He's saying numbers in austin He's up 7623 there right now And in and in west Texas that austin to San Antonio area The interesting thing is houston was one we were wondering another urban area You know a lot of black voters in houston that also out of college educated voters Obsused with big kind of fault line here. Talrico is down in houston, but it's a lot closer than I think people thought And then the other group of Hispanic voters Along the Rio Grande Valley and they're a little later to come in, but Earlier results seem to indicate that Talrico is doing well among Hispanic voters So that is kind of where we're at to start any big takes from you guys on

3:09What why this matters what you're seeing I guess maybe I want you to go first because you kind of wrote about why this matter so this total Okay If it plays out the way we think it is Total vindication for the Tim Miller Sarah Longwell view of democratic politics going forward For people who are not maybe regular viewers of this Tim Miller has been saying Democrats got to try doing different things Everywhere Sarah Longwell has been saying Got to speak to Trump voters got to try to meet them where they are Speak their language Maybe lead with faith at some point and Talrico did this And Jasmine Crockett did something different too now what she did wasn't Very effective. Maybe it turns out But she tried running like a shit poster like hey, I'm just gonna go for low info voters and try to turn that out And it seems to have not worked But that's good It's good to try these things. It is good to run the experiments and

4:13What I most wanted I just didn't want like a 49.8 to We might still get that yeah, I would not say yeah, we might But it looks like we're gonna get like a clean result and Not not a dusty finish as they would call it in wrestling but but a clean win And it's good to have tried an experiment in real time and have gotten a verdict on it And not to just have had like Two or three candidates were all indistinguishable from one another running in the same way Yeah, let me talk a little bit about why it matters like big picture So people watching this live stream are probably political nerds So this might be a little basic, but I do just want to lay out the fact that Texas has been like a desperation Reach state for Democrats for so long They thought they could get somewhere with Beto against Ted Cruz. It didn't work Collin all red didn't work just hasn't worked in Texas. However, the Republicans much like they did in 2022

5:18Seem primed to nominate back onto the Republicans yet, but there is a strong chance That they might nominate a guy named Ken Paxton who has more baggage than Tim Miller on a trip to Europe It is I don't know do you pack a lot to go. It's guess it's all speedos and stuff. I don't know Uh You're muted dude I was coughing. I thought that was me. I'm just gonna move on what I thought that was I shouldn't say so you just keep going Lot of baggage Ken Paxton You know and not he's there's been a lot like the tabloidie stuff with uh his wife and affairs and things like that But that's not it's also like a ton of corruption this guy was actually he was um impeached by his own state at one point He leads with his faith to just like James style recall though. There's a few problems With that and so his wife divorced him not that long ago saying that he had offended their spiritual

6:19home and arrangement so In a year Where Republican enthusiasm might be at its absolute lowest point with a Candidate quality problem on the Republican side It is the closest opportunity Democrats have had in a really long time to pick up a senate seat in Texas In a at a moment when that could be the difference between Democrats Being even Doug Jones versus Roy Moore. That's right. It's a big race. It's a big race And so who the person is on the Democratic side is Very important and so you're testing and what I like about. I've really liked this Texas primary Even though it's been kind of ugly at a national level doing the focus groups with Democrats Was actually a bit of a relief. I don't know if you guys listen to the episode, but Democrats in Texas were like I'm making a big announcement I'm getting back on the focus group podcast right now

7:19I had to take a year off because I just couldn't hear the voters. I was too mad at them But I should have listened to the Texas primary when I feel bad I did end right now and I'm getting back on starting this Saturday Sorry, continue. I can't believe it because you know what they you know So we were talking about what a nasty race it's been They liked both of them 70% approval for both of them. They were not really tracking like the All of the drama that yeah the online stuff they were like on one side We got Jasmine Crockett. She's fiery. She's authentic. She goes hard. She's a fighter I love that on the other side. We've got James Talrico who talks about faith, which is so good in Texas and so If Talrico pulls this out I think what you're going to see is the divide between black voters and Hispanic voters like we already see this We got guy named Talrico. We've got a black woman in the race and so blacks and Hispanics are Seems to be lining up. Telleriko just because his name and the end of the valve. I'm not actually Hispanic I know, but this is this is this is I know but this is everybody is talking about the Hispanic. Yeah black

8:26Like Hispanics are going for Talrico. Yeah, Taloriko Uh, it's one of my people. Yeah, is he's just Catholic Uh, you know, that's the first in Davis County in Texas. Can you just let me finish this and then I'm not going to see that much more, okay? So then Where it goes is going to be down to a lot of the like white Democrats in Texas and here's the thing about the white Democrats in Texas They I don't think have as much of a dog in the fight as it seems like Hispanics and black voters do They want to win and so this became for those voters and electability conversation Who do they think could potentially beat Ken Paxton and if this goes the way it looks like it's going to go With Taloriko winning. It's because they decided he was the more electable candidate probably not that they liked him better But that he had a better chance of beating Ken Paxton in a general election I want to de-racialify that a little bit because I think that just we've learned a lot

9:30Over the last six years in particular the Democratic primary voters overall are pragmatic Overall, they're pragmatic. They're more pragmatic than Republicans. It doesn't mean that they won't Pick the more lefty candidate. I you know, we've even talked about the main race earlier today And so people say well if general voters are pragmatic. Why isn't Janet Mills doing better? I think that they're pragmatically making a bet maybe they're wrong But I think that they think that grand partner would actually be a stronger candidate in the general because Of the way he codes is a working class guy because they tried Sarah Gideon last time she lost They don't want a boring old person. They so the democratic voters care a lot more about electability in their primary It's a higher education audience. It's a higher engaged audience a higher news watching audience and and you know This is our boy Lakshadjane over at split ticket and he's saying that jasmine carcass basically under performing everywhere and Obviously she's doing better and black counties and closer to home counties But like based on the baseline of what they thought that she was going to do she seems to be underperforming everywhere and

10:35You know, and so I look I think that the Hispanic voters are also being pragmatic And again despite that taleriko sounds a little more Hispanic. He's just a white guy. He's just a pastor So I don't know that there's a big racial affinity there I think that folks who are looking at this and saying look this guy We've talked about their religious aspect. He goes on Fox. He went on Joe Rogan He at least has a theory of the case for talking to Trump voters This is my big thing about cracking all time. She didn't even offer a theory of the case for what her message was to them Those days go like fuck you Trump voters and we'll see what happens We maybe that would have worked. It seems like we're not going to know. We don't know for sure But I just think that there's a lot you see this across the board now for violent democratic primaries a lot of pragmatism I hate to bring up old wounds, but It's kind of why some of us thought there should have been a primary in the 24 presidential campaign So do you think the democratic voters would have been pragmatic about that? But anyway We'll continue to monitor that as it goes on over to the Republican side unless javiel you don't think that but

11:35No, I agree completely I think on the Republican side we are probably probably headed towards a runoff You got to get 50% there were three candidates on the Republican Senate side john cornon Ken Paxson and Wesley Hunt was the third candidate um Sarah talked about Ken Paxson's baggage earlier I the relevance of I think the result in this primary is a lot of people are saying if Ken Paxon won by a lot then maybe Then maybe the runoff would kind of be pro forma because Trump would endorse him and That's not happening right now right now john cornon's up by about 4% It looks like there's a lot of vote not out out of vote out uncounted out in rural Texas And he kind of like look at the map here You know cornon is is doing a little better in the suburbs and and Paxson's doing better out and kind of excerpt So we'll see how that goes I think it's possible that Paxson could run up the score in some of these other counties So it doesn't look like Houston's and either so TVD on that couple other things to monitor on the Republican side that are a little bit of fun for everybody

12:39Um, well ones kind of dark, but the other ones are kind of fun. Um Dan Crenshaw um He's got a primary from the right I made a suggestion to a couple of bull and I was like look if you're a bullwark podcast Let's turn you live in Houston and you don't have a dog in the Senate race Maybe consider pulling the Republican ballot and voting against Dan Crenshaw just for kicks right now He's down 53 to 44 To a man named Steve Toath that I'm just going to be honest. I don't know much about But he cannot possibly be as smug and condescending and annoying as Dan Crenshaw So we'll keep an eye on that. That's early. It's really only 28% of voting. It's a sham Crenshaw podcast The sham it exists already. I was doing worse than mine the sham wow guy Is also running in a primary that's a lecture you monitor Uh, yeah, there's a big issue that they wouldn't let him put his name sham wow On the thing on the ballot. So he's mad about that

13:39Thinks of the steel and then Tony Gonzalez Um, who is the uh congressman who's Uh, go more set herself on fire Um, he is also in a primary. He's up 1.4% so That's kind of what we're watching on the Republican side. Anything I miss there you want to talk about on the Republican sides here Did you hit North Carolina No, so I don't often why don't you talk about North Carolina? Yeah. Yeah. So Mike Wattley His one the Republican primary in North Carolina, which means he is going to face off against The guy who's going to beat him Whose name I don't know. I'm just blanking on right now anybody got it right Cooper. Thank you Um, so that's the only other one. I'm really watching. I do want to Uh, go back to the Texas Senate race for just one second. Yeah Um, because I was seeing some chatter in the comments about how like running to the center doesn't work And I'm interested in that comment because I am wondering

14:40Which candidate they mean Because one of the interesting things about the Texas Senate race is that I think people think That Jasmine Crockett is the more progressive candidate in the race, but she is not um She is the more just as a strict policy matter or a strict establishment democratic matter Jasmine Crockett's pretty like establishment Democrat uh, and James Tauriko is I think sort of the more progressive one when it comes to Actual policy beliefs and so I don't know who they think is running to the center. I do think It's probably fair to say some people think Tauriko codes More center because he seems more temperamentally moderate. Yeah, like some people think he's a little more boring I heard this in the focus groups that some people thought he was a little milk toast and she was just more like fiery add more passion Um, yeah, I also say that's just wrong. I hate when people make uh, just blanket statements like that I do think there's just like really big online thing where like it's like a big fight between moderates and progressives

15:42And it's just like you know, sometimes the progressives are sometimes the moderates are right I hate to bring that you know, bring it down like that But it running to the center does help sometimes Ruben Greggo who had on the pod today ran to the center on immigration and outperformed Kamala Harris by like 12 points and ended up winning his Senate race while she lives in Arizona Those in Arizona right so it made sense for him to do that You know, we're talking about at Platner like Platner is kind of running to the left It's a populous left. I think that makes sense right so um You know, they don't there's never uh Folks that say that's running so the center never works. They don't ever offer that same opinion when it's their Republican side So I think it's important to make sure you just for a thought exercise if you think it never works Think about a Republican primary like do you think that Republicans benefited from having carry lake Is there nominee in Arizona versus having like a more boring moderate person? I don't like I think that they and so you know at the presidential level things are very And so I just I would encourage you personally you can't necessarily map

16:44presidential politics In a swing state where there's all this national attention onto what's happening and like a Texas center race like the dynamics of it are quite different Yeah, but also Donald Trump people thought he coded as a moderate. They thought he was moderate on social issues Because he was moderate on social issues and spending and war and spending and you know He was I'm gonna save Medicare so security like didn't turn out to happen on war But he did run to the center on war just he didn't end up doing it He said it He said it we all saw the truth but some of the voters didn't so you know, there's maybe some lessons to learn from that Okay, more results coming in telleriko Now 52% to crock at 46 and we're not gonna really know Until we get to Dallas And see what happens out of Dallas, but signs are are are looking towards crock at one other thing I sort of mentioned on house primaries a couple other races were monitoring and well you guys you guys shoot out questions to us You can shoot super chat to us for on YouTube or questions on sub stack

17:47a couple other primaries. I sort of mentioned Valerie Fouche And is it Fouche your Fouche? I don't know if I'm giving that right She is a North Carolina Democrat that was supported by APAC and had kind of a left challenger Lots of events that she's looking okay so far Al green who's more of kind of an establishment Democrat that's Has basically complained about him is that he's old very old. He has a younger Challenger. I think also slightly to the left But that raises basically mapping along a generational lines and green seems like he's in trouble. It's a Texas Democrat Um So Al green and Dan Crenshaw and maybe Tony Gonzalez in the house on on the ropes a little bit Sorry, sorry, are we trying to chime in on something? I wasn't no um Yeah, so cover yeah hyper driven here Taloriko Codesmore Center and appeals more to the Latinos Yeah, I think that there is something to that, but we'll see in a pride We'll see how that plays out in a general. I mean he's that he hasn't Taloriko has not really in any meaningful way

18:50actually taken Like centrist positions as he is there something that I'm missing well, I mean Talking about Jesus Codes as centrist Right sure and but I'm in actual issues Right, well, but here's my question for you guys Is it possible the Taloriko could help Some people understand that uh if you take the Jesus stuff seriously, it's both based and woke Like I mean this is one of the things I've spent the last decade sitting around going is like this Christian nationalism stuff has fuck all to do with Jesus and if you I mean if you just look at all the Catholic doctrine and then I understand christianne is born just got policies and sort of um like it's uh You know It's awfully woke all the woke stuff is in there feed the hungry Clothe the naked comfort the prisoner like it I you know this is all that new covenant stuff It does not mesh well with what

19:53Is political Christianity in America Yeah, I think that's right. I also just think um It would be helpful because one of the things I know listening to the focus groups is while democrats don't lead with their faith They're plenty faithful um like if you start if you bring up religion Lots of democrats will speak to it, but if you talk to republicans and ask them why are you a republican They will point to their faith as a central reason Uh, which I think confuses people as to how somebody could you know vote for Donald Trump if they're a Christian But if your entire Culture has intertwined your Christianity with your political identity and your identity is like deeply rooted That holds up better to change than democrats who are say I'm a democrat because I believe in xyz Because then if a candidate doesn't do xyz you get mad and maybe don't vote for them Whereas republicans are willing to vote for Anybody who shares that identity even if they don't share the faithfulness

20:55Um, Nick Nicholas so speaking of coding uh, JBL is coding a piscopalian Which that's fired shot fired big time. Yeah Wow libass JBL coding a piscopalian Thanks really that's those are her words The uh Tell here's the other thing about teller you teller you came into a lot of people's consciousness I'm pretty sure By he went on Fox and he had a huge viral mo with Pete Hegseth going after Pete Hegseth The current secretary more who was at the time a co-host on a weekend talk show and James Was trying to get him to say who won the 2020 election, which is a good good gambit And then he goes on Rogan and Rogan by all counts like so And like says nice things about it Which like you know shows you the benefit of like trying um and Uh, you know showing up a lot of these guys. It's another thing that got an always annoyed man people and people like the democrats She can go on those things because they have bad opinions. It's like all these guys are stupid

21:57I was about to say the R word, you know A lot of them are very dumb And it's like if you're smart What James telleriko you can sit there for two hours of Joe Rogan runs circles It's not that hard To win some people over um reago says a Cooper or one of the dams and has lost him in Texas win the general election Are they the front runner for 2028? I don't think that Roy Cooper is going to be in the 2028 mix um god love him I who the hell knows though. I mean, I think the telleriko there'd be a lot of um Lot of pressure on him not to run Because yeah, the democrats finally win in Texas finally in Texas statement. You give up the senate seat that said I don't know a lot of people told Barack Hussein Obama that he should wait for Hillary Clinton We saw how that turned out so sometimes waiting Yeah, you know, what that was an Illinois Senate If you want a good Christian democratic and speak to his faith you can go get Raphael Warnock I like Raphael Warnock

22:58Uh, we're getting Lauren Egan's going to come on here in a minute Let me just peek up here at the latest on the numbers. We're still Uh Ken Paxson is closing the gap a little bit with Cornyn. So that's something that we'll monitor Uh, and telleriko's expanding if we don't interest in the Cornyn Paxson race. Yes Paxton uh here here's so I and this is this is a change for you. It is This is back to 2060 boy. It's a book. I want to hear so Look, I think that this is this is the only way a democrat wins the seat is if Ken Paxson is the nominee And I would like a democrat to win the seat and I think I have made this case now I think one of the big shifts for me was there was a period of time When what you needed were sort of reasonable Republicans to stand up to Trump during the first term right And so I was like, yeah, you know, we should we should be trying to elect sensible saying Republicans, but they all got run out of the party like out on a rail and

24:03At this point the moderate Republicans Susan Collins And not even to just like establishment Republicans like old-score Republicans Not only do they not stand up to Trump, but they do a tepid Korean favor of Trump like Cornyn has done his best to butcher up like he did an ad where he's like reading the art of the deal And I would rather the Republican party just show people who they are they are hypocrites and And I but you know, I think this now, but like I I think It you should be who they are and Ken Paxson perfectly reflects what Republicans want Stellarationist Sarah is the best Sarah. This is not an accelerationist. Uh, this is this is a what is more than better on I got that's the thing I come down to It's it was like show me something that John Cornyn has voted on that Was very meaningful that Ken Paxson wouldn't have to to contain Trump. He hasn't so fuck him

25:05Well, and this is this is I would say this speaks to Something you have said many times Tim Which is that maybe if the grown-ups hadn't been in the room and Trump won we wouldn't have had Trump too Right like all of the people are like well, I got to be in the room to stop the worst stuff And I'll take the really crazy shit off his desk Maybe if they hadn't done that and we could have just had the real full Trump and Trump won we wouldn't have be here now Maybe we saw plenty of full Trump Uh, I mean he tried to overthrow the election Yeah, he had a lot of great he had a lot of crazy ideas that he didn't get to execute on but you know, sure fair enough And it's a weaker argument now that he got elected after January 6th. I will I will say Yeah, this is just there is remains a theory out there that like you should be protecting Uh, what's his thoughts who he voted to impeach Trump, but then he used it Cassidy right like oh, we should protect him from a from a tough Republican primary because the other person's gonna be more mega

26:07And you're like What's the difference? What's the difference between Cassidy and this other person now? You can look backwards and say Cassidy was willing to impeach him But if you look at everything since then Cassidy has done everything Trump wants in order to try to win this election And I would rather just dispense with the Farce dispense with the K-fabe as JVL would say Um, I want it before you go Throw oh, yeah, I think you wouldn't you know what go ahead you say it because we're gonna say the same thing I have a schmoment just I'm just gonna sit here They call a cruncher. No, I haven't called it yet, but mr. Toath is beating Dan and I'm not gonna comment on any of how Dan looks So I'm just gonna enjoy it mr. Toath is beating Dan cruncher by 20 points with 60% in So not called yet, but they're not looking great for old Danny Danny C Oh, could somebody find me on the producer side that was this there's a sad video of Dan cruncher He used to act like he was an independent Republican. This is right. I'm not sure I was just talking about

27:09And when he decided to throw all in with Trump, he was at like a TP USA event And he was sitting down in the front row like screaming like mr. Trump. Please sign my Please sign my boobs like he was shouting at him. That was very sad Let's let's do a low light real Dan crunch off. We could effort that. Let's bring in Lauren Egan What we try to find Uh some of the most embarrassing moments of Dan cruncher. Maybe a highlight reel with the time being Dan cruncher Debate at each other. Maybe maybe should we watch me should we watch highlight reel me? I don't know. We'll see how things go uh Lauren what I want to get your take on this democratic center. He's looking good for Telleriko I had mentioned kind of him going into the lion's den is something that Separated him and draw a lot of attention him doing Rogan and Fox Also social media game those been pretty legit. Why don't you kind of talk about what you think explains How Telleriko's position himself Yeah, he was kind of a no name person even just a few months ago I remember the first i think like a year ago sam and i were slacking about like how do we pronounce this guy's name

28:15And now everyone knows him um But he really started to catch people's attention off of his tiktok and instagram when we're talking about the attention economy He's kind of one of these early democrats who really demonstrated that you knew how to master it He went viral a lot for his speeches on the house floor Especially in his opposition to the school voucher movement in texas And i think what's interesting about his social media stuff I mean, it's kind of different from what we've seen with mom donny. It's not super gimmicky There's not like a halal cart involved or things like that. It's oftentimes him speaking From the state house oftentimes him talking about scripture talking about his faith and how he relates it to politics And it just really took off these has millions of followers on tiktok and instagram and Someone ended up sending one of his tiktoks to joe rogan like one of joe rogan's friends It was basically like hey, you've got to have this guy on your show. So long story short

29:18Telleriko goes on the joe rogan show last summer and that's kind of what kick started his whole campaign He announced he's running for a senate just a couple weeks after that Talked to us about how seriously the democrats are taking this and looking at the prediction Markets here and Yeah, we there's no sense overreacting to that but it's it's a data point And just tonight as these results are coming in you see texas senate winner republican or democrat The republican number has gone You know from like 80% down to 65 like you start to see the red line going down the blue line going up as it looks possible that it's a taleriko verse paxed in race Is this like a social media buzz thing? A lot of us like to talk about it but the actual dsc the democratic campaign folks are more like interested in other states Or do they think it's real? It's not anything. It's real is not on the top tier list of states This was i mean when shumer and the dscc were laying out their top tier the states that they had to win This was not on it. I when i talked to shumer a couple weeks ago about texas

30:20He basically said well, we're gonna wait and see what happens in the primary We'll make our decision about how much we want to get involved and how much money we want to put into the state Until we see who these winners are Obviously they were watching to see who the republican winner was and the democratic nominee as well I think that if this ends up being a paxed and taleriko race which Early signs indicate that that's potentially where we're headed Democrats are gonna feel a lot more bullish about this race But it's this is still i mean we say this every cycle. This is still a really hard state For democrats to win in so i think the difficult thing for the party now is they're gonna have to decide Just how much do they actually throw into the state and invest when their path back to the senate has to include places like Ohio potentially Iowa, Alaska, North Carolina, and then texas is really on that like be list of of states Yeah, I mean Ohio and texas could end up flopping. I don't know Sarah don't want to get your chime in just on the democratic wave

31:21Thing in these random races. Oh, there's also Arkansas tonight. So random house district. It's north of Little Rock But in the election in 24 the republican won narrowly in this kind of little rock suburb 149 special election right now the democrat is Shalonging the republican like 63 to 36 and they're about to call it so you know just things like that It's just whatever and it's just that it's just an Arkansas special but a 30 point swing is in line with kind of the stuff You've we've been seeing yeah, and i think republicans have noticed this right they've noticed that in every special election This is not it's not look you can one race I think it was desantis who came out and said hey, I think we should be worried about this. We're seeing 15 20 30 point swings in every single special election and it speaks to two things one increased democratic enthusiasm and two decreased republican enthusiasm And also and I think it's worth just making this point every time we talk about the midterms

32:22But the fact that republicans Uh Have Sorry somebody else go. I just lost my turn. I thought I have to come back to it. Lauren you go The chat yeah, I look at the chat. Why are you looking at the chat? I know I know I get it. I'm gonna turn it off. I gotta turn it off Too many did I'm I'm I'm sorry. Sorry. I'm sorry. I got it back. Sorry. It's that the people who are turning out in the midterms right are The low propensity voters who vote for Donald Trump Are not midterm voters. Sorry. That is just the big overarching thing We want to say every single time that Democrats now have a structural advantage in off years That republicans used to have but no longer do Um, we were mentioning the tiktok so it live and uh, we want to trigger Sarah a little bit on this one So there was an issue uh, that James Talleriko got a lot of momentum on that um It's I think maybe contrast Sarah's priors. That's good. We like we like to be honest about our views around here

33:24Maybe even counter JVL's let's watch it. It's James Talleriko As one of his first viral videos on tiktok Just like any scam vouchers may sound good But once you dig into the details you realize they're ripping you off A voucher is any program that takes our hard-earned tax dollars out of our underfunded public schools and gives them To unaccountable private schools. It's not a popular idea And that's why voucher proponents have had to come up with a bunch of new slogans to sell their scam Let's walk through each one First that's not great um, you get the gist you get the gist of 1.1 million views Another thing he's been hitting on is um Talking about the tops versus the bottoms. It's kind of different than how we discuss it at odds In the friddle in New Orleans you got that dim Yeah, but he's he's talking about the income bracket. Okay, not anything sexual. So get your head out of the gutter But um He has I think incorporated

34:26A lot of like the populist left economic stuff Into you know more of that kind of moderate cultural Attitude and is that I mean and and that's it's good. I mean everybody's doing that now at some level But but I think he he's really done a good job of focusing on it And I think they separated himself from jasmine on that focus. I don't know lord if that feels right to you Yeah, I mean this race is so interesting because it's hard to Like put any of them into boxes that there's a lot of cross-cutting dynamics on him moderating culturally I mean in some ways yes because Thank you guys mentioned this earlier the He talks about religion. It's so central to who he is that he kind of codes is a bit moderate But he's really not on things like abortion um You know he Kind of got criticized early on in the primary. Do you guys remember Terry vert? He was running in this primary I like Terry for it. It's Austria. I'll ask around. He's in a primary tonight. Let's check him on Terry You keep talking the house race now. Yeah, but he was in the senate race and he dropped out but he

35:28um He released an attack ad basically on telleriko pulled up some of his old florist speeches that he made saying that god is by non-binary that there Sixth genders or something like that and you can understand what telleriko might have been trying to say Intellectually, but Terry vert's whole thing was telleriko is actually too far left He's too progressive for a state that's as red and moderate or red and conservative as texas So that's what I think is kind of fascinating about this race is you just he's Causes moderate, but he's really not and you can't put any of them in this neat ideological boxes at all One other democratic race we've not mentioned tonight Which gained a little bit of interest because of the way that he inserted himself into the senate race is The house Distracted with 33 in the Dallas suburbs. I think it's the district the George W. Bush lives in and that's calling all red and Julie Johnson um And it's two because of this redistricting nonsense

36:31You know two democrats got thrown in together think the initial thinking I think is that all red was gonna be a favorite there But he like in a very weird way Like inserted himself into the telleriko crocodile feud in a way that I think bugged a lot of people Nothing there yet because that is in Dallas So we'll see in about 20 minutes start to get some some numbers out of there What are what are what are one of the democratic whispers on that race anything Lauren or Sarah you guys hearing anything on that race? I think people were feeling pretty down on all red going into this Which is interesting just how much his sort of stock and the party is plummeted in the past couple weeks I mean after a lot of that his whole back and forth with telleriko um and the crocket campaign That was when the influencer there was an influencer in texas Who basically um accused telleriko of saying that All red was a mediocre black man and it created this whole identity conversation She kind of

37:32Missed represented about telleriko is saying he was trying to say that all red was running a mediocre campaign Which I think is a fair statement to make considering he's no longer in the senate race um and Crocket and all red I think kind of cynically tried to paint telleriko is being racist um In this race, and I think that kind of backfired in some ways I don't think that that was really um taken very well In some corners of the party and um you saw some folks kind of come out and um Endorse johnson in these past couple weeks um so Sure, so we'll watch that jade debatio says the telleriko is a white marakus a nobama You got any takes on that that would go to my theory that he just you win and you run Any i i want to revisit this i know i know that people would not want him to leave the texas senate seat But the democrats do not have a frontrunner if somebody one texas it might be there might the momentum might be too hard to stop

38:35I kind of feel that way about plan or in main. I don't i The nobody the thing is not the field is not lighting anybody on fire The field is not lighting anybody on fire. That's all it's 940 on March 3 and Tim is not throwing guys One there are primaries yet protecting them out too Also, I just telleriko I think there's some there's gonna be a buzz candidate. It's gonna come from somewhere Um, it's not gonna be the guy with the nazi tattoo He might he might be able to pull it out in Maine, but I don't think it's that's gonna be the I don't know about Sarah. I don't know about that. Okay. Can I just say julie johnson? Yeah, part of the lesbian phone tree uh No, er, liker. She's gonna be great What happens on the lesbian phone tree? Is that like do you share notes on scissoring or like? No, you can just you can just find any lesbian so like if you have if you have like a core group From there you can find anyone like jvl said Sarah, I need to find Allison Bechtel and what happened like minutes?

39:35Boom Um Ann asked how happy I am the krenshaw might list. I do I'm hoping that The no, it's been called tim. It's been called it Dave Wasserman has called it. Wasserman has called it. Are you sure? I need to see it myself. I need to see it myself. We need to do. We have a sound effects. I wind up Steve Toff defeats representative Dan krenshaw in the texas 02 gop primary Bring me a high noon. I'm contacting downstairs. I'm gonna have a victory cocktail Let me tell you The redistricting last year did krenshaw know favors So krenshaw got fucked by his own texas state Republican party Well, that's a shame First of all, that's the kind of smoke people deserve for them starting this They set off that whole arms race on that but but but krenshaw is a perfect example

40:36Of this like corn and phenomenon that I was talking about. It is somebody who Does not like Donald Trump, but does not like maga. It's not who he was It's not who we wanted to be when his career in his career when he got into politics But he made his accommodations and he wound up in the sour spot with voters where he's not Maga enough for the people who really want maga and he's not sincere Or like able to own his space enough to bring over dem voters or build a big coalition Bye-bye Dan krenshaw. You were one of the people who Did all the accommodating and this is where it got you. Somebody's phone's buzzed on their desk I am I'm waiting for my victory drink waiting for my victory drink Luckily, I think that there's some viewers of this live stream downstairs at my house nice to live stream at your house. Yeah, Lauren Yeah, she's still relatively new here. I don't know their announcement, but sure Lauren What feels better seeing a good candidate when we're seeing a terrible candidate lose

41:37There's only one right answer to this Whoa only one right answer For me personally, it's seeing a terrible candidate lose. Yes, that's really satisfying Surely satisfying, but that does speak I think to the cynicism of our time I do think people have had a different answer about that in 2008 and that does It does make me kind of sad Well good riddance old Dan krenshaw The other announcement is that it seems like We don't really have a call on the Republican side of the Texas race We have a call that will go to a runoff I still think it's pretty relevant whether Ken Paxson can pick up enough ground here to pass Corden. There's just something I don't know. There's something vibes ish about winning the first round. It doesn't Guarantee anything in the second round of a primary, but especially in a race like this It's basically a head to head and you've a third candidate. It's like kind of different if there's a coalition But um, I think that's meaningful. What is hunt is good to the right of ever of these guys? What's these hunters? It's typical kind of mega

42:38So, uh, that's nice. I was good riddance Dan krenshaw Uh, break. We'll see you on the podcast charts. We'll be losing again I was talking to the show And heard you call for it If anybody's listening, I would like a drink Uh, Mary's on his way over to your house right now. Here's the thing about hunt He was actually kind of a normal guy like a normie Republican until he decided he needed to get into this race And he became a super mega like I love Trump like he just went, you know, and it And it gave him just enough juice to force these other two into a runoff, which I got to say There is also something that you can take pleasure from here Which is not only his cornon already spent more on this Republican primary Than basically any other Republican in the history of Republican Senate primaries Now a Republican Democrat or sorry Republican donors have to fund a runoff Uh, and that's a lot of money for Republicans to have to spend in a primary

43:42And then a runoff probably for Ken Paxton to win uh, and then Do it all over again. Yeah, do it all over again. Cornon spent I believe 69 million nice uh in the primary on TV Which is a hell of a lot and they got a couple more months now And I think they will feel like they'll have to fund him You know just you know, because making the bet I guess that you save money on the back end in theory not having to try to bail out Paxton because these guys all bail out Paxton because they have no they have no morals but Um, it is definitely Wasted resources and a lot of the mega Republicans have noticed us. I've seen this in my feed This could like like they're getting hit from both sides um, where like mega Republicans are like why are you wasting our money to save this desiccated old guy Like why shouldn't we be spending it in these other states with candidates that we we like Can I ask you a leading question Aren't most of your questions. I mean who can say

44:43Uh So you had said, you know, what is the difference between John Cornington Ken Paxton right there they they'll be the same name and name of a But if we switch it around and look at it from the point of view of a Republican voter in Texas What is the reason you would prefer Ken Paxton a guy who should probably be in jail Who is a serial adulterer who who would vote no Than this other guy John Corning who is a respectable person who you voted for five times already and who also votes all the ways you want him to vote Sarah He's a fighter and he's more mega they think that John Corning is a phony Uh, elitist establishment Republican right now and they see all of his overtures in Trying to like put on a cowboy hat like they just they they think he's a fake and they think Ken Paxton Yeah, right. No, that's true. He's part of an old guard Republican party that everybody was fine with back in the day

45:45But now they want a mega fighter and when you try to tell people who want a mega fighter Hey, this guy's had a lot of affairs and he's corrupt. They're like That guy that's just like the that's just like the other guy. I really like like they're not turned off by that I also this always takes me back. I want to add another thing to um that answer To my favorite Sarah focus group ever Which was over Republican voters. I believe in Georgia, Florida, Alabama. I kind of forget why you picked those three but um We're going through various races and the voters through the mega voters We're talking about the House candidates and they were talking about in Congress the people they like that are really getting shit done Our Mac gates and Marjorie tailgreens a few years ago now and They didn't know what the policies were that they passed But they just see them out there owning the lips And then when they start and then when we moved on to ask about the governor's race and stuff You know, they're like yeah, I kind of like Brian camp better than whoever the mega was running at the time because

46:47Our schools are getting better and I care about the road right like I do think that a lot of voters Do look at Congress is like your job Mega voters in particular your job is to make lips cry Like to vote for crazy shit, you know, make a scene make me feel good And and can practice and can deliver that form um I I want to get uh lord and I'm gonna go around the horn about a telleriko thing Bill crystal Bill if you want to jump on here, please jump on bill is messaging us and it's like he's one of the commenters bill crystal And he wanted to point it out Jump on here if you want bill. We'd love to see you uh That Bernie Sanders and the Bernie Sanders counties near Austin go in the hill country and like the Austin burbs um Telleriko's putting up huge numbers in the Bernie Sanders counties and This kind of goes to a conversation we were having earlier thinking about what might work for telleriko And it is what I'm calling the inverse of the Kamala paradox

47:48Was it the Kamala paradox? I'm trying to brand it. So you're good at branding these things. Let's try and go Jim It's gonna. It's the Kamala. It's a Kamala something The Kamala Kenundrum the Kamala Kenundrum It's a Kamala Kenundrum which is that Lefty Bernie voters thought that she was a corporate shill And centrist corporate shill voters Thought that she was a California lefty. Yeah, and so she was in the sour spot And I do think that telleriko has a chance and looking ahead to future democratic primaries I feel like the ones are gonna succeed are the ones like the Bernie voters look at them like yeah He's not quite Bernie enough for me But I like that kind of that guy or gal's jib and the moderate voters like A little lefty for me on some things, but I I like whatever you know, what something else about them and telleriko has seen to figure that out I don't know Yeah, I just I think I was having a conversation with um A strategist who's kind of in the moderate wing of the party the other day and we were talking about

48:53populism and What role it should play in the party. I was kind of surprised because he was like yeah We fully recognize that the nominee in 2028 needs to be someone who embraces populism Which is interesting because again this person barely moderate Very much mainstream centrist wing of the party um and I think telleriko absolutely did that like he's it's been interesting He's not really gone after trump a whole lot in his campaign. He did He films like a little ad at the Texas state fair a couple of weeks ago um Noting that like fried Oreos and all these things are so much more expensive because of tariffs He never said trump's name. He just talked about tariffs Um, so his whole thing really is not about Punching trump or punching the Republican party. It's all billionaires versus us So what you have in that uh the only thing I was gonna say is that when you talk about the Kamala conundrum a lot of that comes from her not being Uh able to cut like a really clear picture of who she was like I remember listening to voters talk about Kamala Harris all the time

49:59And they're big complaint wasn't even too liberal or too moderate so much as I don't know what she stands for I don't know who she is and I think with telleriko even if it's when you do the faith thing like if you've got something That's clear for voters to grab on to so that they're like I know that person I know what they're about like I get their vibe Just something that really stands out to them and is sticky like that's a big piece of it Just so they can locate you they didn't feel like they could locate Kamala Harris In terms of who she was Um, okay, we've got a little bit of bad news um and a little bit good news the bad news is the sham wow guy currently in sixth place In his primary challenge against some mega person. I've never heard of John Conner So that's too bad kind of interesting in an arc in saw race. I wanted to flag another one is uh There's a supreme court seat there connected with constant supreme courts It's it's one of these nonpartisan things but it's really partisan um where the incumbent is this like

51:00You know person that believes that earth is 800 years old or whatever and that the dinosaurs and ladies live together And um, and then there is like kind of an activist other candidate The one against book bans and it's our can saw and the the conservative guys winning brownie 52 to 48 over atoms But again, it's just kind of like those things are eyebrow raising you know, there was the the Ryan Zinky dropped out in Montana this week. I like Lauren. You're gonna talk with uh Ryan another Ryan Ryan bussy later this week about that race. He's running for congress It's like, you know, he only won by 12 last time this Republican mega Republican guy in Montana And if shit if an Arkansas supreme court race is four points, you know, I the field does start to open up a little bit um For the democrats. Are we ready for some shot in proida? Yes, all right, um, I asked for the video of Dan Crenshaw sucking up to Donald Trump. Let's let's take a look at that I'm just holding it

52:00Look at Dan, where is he? I love you, Trump Oh, yeah, oh, you gotta come off on stage. Oh, yeah, there it is I was gonna get a signature. Oh, yeah. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir lick the lick the boot, Dan lick the boot, Dan. That's too bad. I don't, Dan, I thought was supposed to be a normal one I said this better be good, Dan That took a long time I said, Dan, what the hell is it? He said it's a no vote on impeachment day. That was a no No vote on impeachment. No vote on Dan Crenshaw. That's enough to see you later, Dan um, it's been real We can't enjoy Dan Crenshaw losing in a primary to a mega Republican. What can you enjoy in this world, you know? Do you remember when he made that ad where he was in a really tight Body suit and he like oh, yeah, he like dropped himself through a window With the matrix or something

53:01That was embarrassing too. He's an action figure great Um, there's a devil. We have another let's keep doing it. We have another. We have a highlight reel We have this is when me and Dan were debating on Pierce Crusher It's kind of we need to music from like the from the Oscars like when somebody died You made like that. Here's the thing Congressman frenchaw once your audience to thank That the Republican party right now is the same as it was in 2017 And that the Donald Trump administration will be the same as it was when you brought in a bunch of traditional Republicans To be around him and his cabinet and to work in his staff and I'm sorry That's just an imaginary world that the congressman wants to live in to feel comfortable because what the world We live in now is all those people. I'm sorry. Pierce. Let me finish. Let me finish all those people are gone now And at the RNC at the box that people around Trump is gone now Marjorie Taylor Greene Tucker Carlson Tucker had a prominent spot to speak at the convention Congressman Crenshaw did not this new party is a nativist party

54:01That's going to be about mass deportations and tariffs and revenge on Donald Trump's enemies If you don't believe me listen to what Donald Trump says and I just want to know why Congressman Crenshaw thinks That he understands where the party is better than Trump's own vice president Mike Pence Who assesses this and says no, this is not someone we can trust Why does Congressman Crenshaw think that he knows better than Mike Pence about Donald Trump's character and what kind of policies he would How's cooking You look so young. What year was that? Fuck you You are the one aging me. You're making me sit here for hours watching the news. Yep. I need to cigarette after that I Can't get a cigarette actually Okay, can we send him yeah to his office could we send him an edible arrangements love the bulwark? No, we could set him some soul Edibles Say let me tell you I this is this is um

55:02We won't have a clip of this, but you know what else Dan Crenshaw did me doing something good. No He threw Liz Cheney under the bus really hard like they were the same They were like had the same views sick. She was in leadership. And then He came out hard against her in her primary and I hope that Liz Cheney sent him a little note Hope she's happy tonight. We end about three minutes when we get in some Dallas numbers in And I think that once we get the Dallas numbers in We'll probably get a call on the Texas on the Democratic side of the Senate race and we'll know a little bit about that Collin already Joey Johnson Lesbian on football player battle So we'll keep an eye on that Lauren were you monitoring this um Valerie Fushie race at all over North Carolina Yeah, the fourth district. Yeah, yeah, I don't know if we have if that's been called it looks like Valerie's gonna win But it's it's not over yet. They haven't called it. Okay. Yeah, I mean that was an interesting primary

56:04This was I believe a rematch. I think in this primary Basically Fushie is I think she's almost 70 She's the incumbent and she's getting a challenge from the Durham County Commissioner need a alum Alums young she's in her early 30s endorsed by standards In Justice Democrats and David Hogg's groups and sort of that that cohort um and This race I think was a lot it was in some ways it was a generational sort of test A bit of whether or not there's going to be a Democratic Tea Party um All-on was really painting her opponent is kind of backed a corporate Democrat almost back by APAC in better the AI industry things like that So I mean, I'm interested if if Fushie kind of holds on she's one of these older Democrats who's been criticized for not really You know kind of being asleep at the wheel sometimes, you know taking forever to come out and say something against

57:06Trump's actions in Iran So I don't know you it's it's hard to like read too much into any one race about what other incumbents can expect but And a really interesting test Um, this is an interesting race. I haven't been following um The Texas Attorney General race and uh ship really I once wrote an article about chip Roy uh where I called him a cowardly goldfish Yeah, I kind of forget what I'm the cowardly goldfish now because I kind of forget what I was mattered about But I would I remember clearly I still living in Oakland so I thought I bet I looked really young what during this phone call as well Sarah And uh, he called me and like yelled at me for an hour This was like when the bullet was just starting when Republicans like before they'd given up on me They haven't given up on some of the other ones before I've all these guys that I used to work with they've given up on me And so he called me to scream at me But yell at me and about how like it's important to still have good Republicans in here Tim. Why are you coming after me?

58:07I'm I still care about spending and I went against Donald Trump on impeachment and Anyway, uh, he left Congress to run for attorney general and he's running against a guy named maze Middleton I know nothing about maze Middleton, but if we could pull his picture up on the screen That would be nice We pull up a picture of maze Middleton Look at this guy. It's going to be a second, but here we go. Now there's some better ones. Let's keep going Let's keep looking. Let's keep looking. Let's find his headshot. Let's find a headshot of maze Middleton Anyway, while we effort that he is uh, he's waiting 43 to 29 Oh, over chip Roy chip Roy left Congress to run for Texas attorney general And he is getting Beat pretty handily by a fellow named maze Middleton Uh, remember the Texas Senate 11th district. You know, it looks like a uber Part of why that's interesting is

59:09The same picture there There we go that man right there That man is beating chip Roy like a drum right now. That is an alpha You're a fighter if I've ever seen one It's a fighter He's crushing chip Roy in the Texas attorney general race. That's something If you put a little hat on him, he looks like he could be he could be working in the Santa's workshop Built in the He's ever frame mugged anybody in his whole life. I think he has been bone smashing Mays might be the attorney general now that is something else tough break for chip Roy and Dan Krenshaw Krenshaw and boy. Do you guys think you're going to get any more Republican Retirements in the next two weeks after tonight's like as people start looking through Again all the the weird races just places where it's a 30 point swing and stuff like that Are more because I assume is why chip Roy didn't run and why I don't know in the next two weeks But I think you're going to continue to see Republican retirements. Yeah, I think there's a lot of people heading for the hills

1:00:13I think we've seen a lot already, but I don't think We finished I do just but I think with chip Roy, you know chip Roy's one of those people who Frequently doesn't vote for the speaker of the house or doesn't or doesn't vote to pass a spending bill and I don't know that his principled conservatism is very welcome anymore I think people want somebody who's just going to support Trump's agenda and keep their mouth shut Yeah, here was chip After this was it was around January 6th. I was writing about this trump deserves universal condemnation for what was clearly impeachable conduct chip came around like they all did and the people just didn't believe it So you got telleriko up by eight here with about half the vote in we're waiting on Dallas and I think that is Gonna be Pretty telling I'll start to start to peek at you if you have questions for us Did I say San Antonio was West Texas somebody tell me I didn't I mean it's west of Austin I'm aware that San Antonio's not West Texas. I watch landman. Okay. I watch landman

1:01:16I know what's that. I know where West Texas says um Lauren. Did you know that James Taleriko is not Hispanic? Um, yes Although I believe in the goal. Get the goal. I'm just saying Mexico Taleriko rhymes with more than regga Um You know, I think I think it did benefit Taleriko a lot like it's weird in these Texas races There usually is like a spoiler Hispanic candidate from The Rio Grande Valley like a Dalga County or something and that that didn't happen this time So Taleriko's really running up the score down there. I'm just looking at this Right now like Cameron County His Brownsville 63 34 Web County 65 31 Taleriko's really really running up the score with the uh with his banks We'll we'll keep that. We'll take a look at your questions as we listen isn't Taleriko

1:02:20um Is it south of Austin San Antonio is south and west of Austin? Is it not? Am I crazy? Am I losing my mind? I don't know. This is a fun geography question, but uh Uh Lauren Yes, do you know so I don't need you to be Steve Kornaki here, but if if Steve Kornaki was here He would be trying to tell us how many votes are in Dallas That are possible and whether or not that would be enough to overcome the current eight point gap That currently exists between Crockett and Taleriko now. I don't know how many Votes are there, but I see three hundred and twelve thousand for in Dallas I got it just in the Democrats. Um, I'm not wearing khakis, but I'll be there That I mean, that's that's obviously Crockett's home base. Um, I don't think I don't know if there's enough Where she could conceivably right now. We'll tell you this

1:03:21Jazz James Hariko leads by a hundred thousand votes right now. There are three hundred thousand votes in Dallas You guys can do the math or you can just look at Dave Wasserman, but we only have half the vote Dave Wasserman over a district. He's seen enough James Hariko wins the Texas Senate Democratic And uh, we'll head on to a general election against either John Cornyn or Ken Paxton one of the big concerns that a lot of people have Lauren I'm gonna ask you about this and we can let you pop if you want to about a general election with Taleriko Is that it did it got kind of nasty with Crockett and there's some folks out there making the case that Taleriko is gonna have trouble turning out black voters in Texas now Texas and Georgia You know the percentage of the black mode is not as great as it is in some of these other states the raw number There's a ton of black voters in Texas like the second or third most to any state, but um What what's your sense of that like is that kind of be priority number one for him or like what are people saying about

1:04:23And what a Taleriko been saying about how he's gonna you're trying to motivate black voters after kind of I can touch his primary with with Crockett Yeah, I think that's gonna be one of the main things Right out the gate that he's going to have to focus on I mean his strategy here was clearly He knew that Crockett was gonna win the black vote by a lot So his play here was to run out the score with white voters and Latino voters um Not to say that he didn't go into some black areas in campaign there But that was not his primary focus in this in this primary race So that's gonna be a major thing that he's gonna have to work on coming out of this primary Crockett I will say has a role to play there and that is going to be interesting to I think before tonight it was very clear that Taleriko was a bit more of a team player I mean he he made very clear to his supporters that if Crockett wins We are all gonna go knock doors. We're gonna help her win this race Um, and then Crockett's campaign put out a statement basically saying like we'll support whoever wins But it didn't come from her you know, there's just like a different level of sort of commitment that you felt from the two of them

1:05:28So I'm curious to see what she does coming out of this um And how much she kind of helps the driver mr Obama's been on the sidelines and you know not done a lot But he has popped out in campaign season from time to time And I know that he and Taleriko have talked and I wouldn't be surprised if he was called in to Help with that um All right, Loni, you got any other final thoughts for us? If you want to pop off then we'll just kind of go around the horn and close things down the three of us. That's great Thanks guys We'll look to your guys questions because if any questions thoughts um here before we let you all go um The Arkansas Supreme Court race just one of the things I want to mention it does look like the bag the the Christian Nationals guys gonna win there But the the Democratic Align person is overperforming Kamala in Arkansas by 52 points right now and so I just You know again off off year whatever like special election But primary night But I just can you continue the positives for me the positive takeaways and we'll get to kind of go around and take

1:06:32aways and go to questions um is Dan Crenshaw Bites the dots see you later Dan Democrats do continue to overperform in these specials and and the Texas Senate races, you know That nobody's getting good and counting their chickens on it, but it feels more in play than it did an hour ago for the Democrats Yes, um, and and I saw a question in the chat that I think is a good one Which is it was it was asking where do the hunt voters go right because this is this is the question so right now in this Cornon is up by about two points Over Ken Paxton, but I believe Wesley hunt has like 12 points. That's a lot, right? That's a big chunk that he got as a as a third candidate Um, and I think hunts people go To Paxton um feels like it, right? Yeah, I mean, so you so first of all hunt ran as like the ultra mega guy Even though I don't think that's quite who he is um and he's also he's a young black guy

1:07:37Uh, and so I think that these are voters in Texas who are like I want something new and different and I don't think that the new and different crowd Goes back to cornon. I think that's something, right? Yeah That's right. Yeah, you have two challengers in an incumbent the what are the chances that the challengers voters are gonna say Oh, actually, I really want the same yeah Um, the uh algreen um I mentioned I just want to bring that in one more time because just interesting the generational change out of this Christian Manifee is the young guy to watch handsome guy um and uh he seems to be like he looks like he's gonna be winning That primary over algreen hasn't been called yet, but he he's up by he's up by six points um JBL, do you have any other uh final thoughts before we take some questions and get out of here? Yeah, I do uh there's you go pull out today showing that Trump's strong disapproved number is now 51%

1:08:39His overall approval is down to 38% This This starts to look say It starts to look like things could really Like the bottom could fall out Right, we could go down to 35 Bush line. Bush line. Bush line. I'm just saying. I mean nothing if you look around and say so what are the things that get better for him I mean, I guess he could stop warring He could stop doing his war He could stop doing tariffs, but I don't know like it I don't want to be optimistic JBL well. Yeah, love that. Can I sorry? I've just one other little tidbit which is um Kamala Harris endorsed Crockett, which was one of the questions Jesse said that which endorsement was worse Trump for Herschel Walker or Kamala for Jasmine Crockett Trump for Herschel Walker was a jasmine Crockett both um like Was not an abuser who played Russian roulette all the time psychopath, but um

1:09:42But I do think it is I was a tough one for Kamala to jump in and try to test her ability to Move voters Because that didn't it didn't work out that way um So yeah, well, what did she do it as ability to test voters? What if she did it as like hey jasmine Crockett is a black woman trying to set something Trying to do something historic and that's fine That's fine Well, hold on the question is not whether you're respected or whether because her reasons can be Perfectly good. It's more of a It means like Trump could endorse somebody and pull them over the finish line no problem And so it is a test of who juice with voters It's not a thing. It's just a test of political Also, yeah zero juice, but also political skill and let's say this. I like Kamala first line Got to meet her a few times. I like her and I and I you know to to make this even Stephen We're we're ripping on Jeb today on the TNL for his Comment on our Iran. I like to Jeb

1:10:44Jeb didn't really have any juice like Jeb's political skills that without that great. He's a good governor He he wasn't politically that strong and his instincts went back great politically on the national scale um And we've now seen from Kamala Okay primary campaign that was bad um, you know some bad political instincts as VP I think some bad ones in the post Campaign choices and this race it's like you're going back to that sour spot the Kamala conundrum It's like it was kind of a half-sea endorsement, right? She did a she did a Auto dial for something a phone call to went to evil's houses. So it was like Not enough to really help her To help Crockett But enough to Annoy people that were on Dalariko's side, right? And so it's like well, what was the point of doing that? It's just it's showed I think a lack of political judgment that

1:11:44We've seen a couple of cases with her so anyway Not a huge deal, but but not particularly savvy endorsement of the breaking news here. I think okay What polls just park them Tina Peters? Oh, fuck did we have to do this live? You have to come at me as Jeb and Jared pull us in the same I'm sorry. I thought this was a live cast as news. We're gonna we want to break the whole hold this I'm gonna try to confirm you you talked in okay. I'm gonna answer one of these questions because I have an answer to this um Odie Tavish, I think Adie Tavish um asked now are any of these races we're donating to or do we want to wait till? Help up smaller down ballot candidates later. I'm gonna work on this project It is coming soon Where I'm gonna highlight some races that I think are super interesting to donate to If you're so inclined And the races that I Think are the where you get the most bang for your buck

1:12:45Are going into red states and districts where there isn't already going to be a ton of funding So I kind of think Tavariko is going to be pretty well funded. I don't think that's a waste of money But the races I'm looking at Mary Peltola Alaska Making sure she's really well-funded. I think it's going to be important for the Democrats And I don't know if that's going to be as high a priority from the big ticket donors Maybe the island Kansas Senate races. Let's see how those shake out. I think those are also stretch races that A Democrats are almost as likely to win as Texas, but won't have as much attention on them And then he'll he'll hold a bunch of house districts I mentioned that Montana House race earlier Ryan bus. He's a really good candidate former Gunwrites advocate. He's kind of like the Sarah of gun rights, you know, he's he's flipped and And seen things from the inside and It's still still an active gun owner and user, but wants to see reforms and and and but is not is really in step with Montana 12 point race as I mentioned earlier like that something so I'll put together a list for people

1:13:49Coming up here in the next few weeks, but yeah Don't donate yet. We are going to we will talk a lot about these things. Yeah Fact check polis is not yet part of Tina Peters He's simply put out a tweet saying that here a Democrat has been just given probation for a thing which is just as serious as what Tina Peters did And he really has to look forward to the equal application of the laws That's what he's thinking about right now But he's going to part of Tina Peters. Well don't make me text you at polis right now I'm enjoying myself. I'm enjoying where you don't do it Jared. Don't do it. Don't do it Guys, he's not gonna listen to me. Let's let's let's just do a quick recap because it's been a good night actually I'm sorry. I don't optimistic. So I had to even things out Sarah. Yeah. Okay. I that's that's you that that tracks But this was a really strong night and I want to say I I actually maybe liked Jasmine Crockett more than one might think I I tend to Think that right now she did not run a very good campaign, but I I sort of like

1:14:55The gutsy like let's try like let's me a fighter like you're gonna need some of that energy And I really hope she does go to bat for James Talrico going into this that would be like a strong move on her part But I do think Talrico was the best choice in terms of putting a seat in play And I'm just gonna say again Republicans now have already spent more on this Senate fight Between Corning and Paxton Then they wanted to now they've got to spend more money on a runoff and this is gonna be a competitive Senate race in Texas now And so for those of you who are disappointed about Jasmine Crockett, I understand But I do think everybody should Think hard like and look nobody's here being polyannish about waves or anything else or it's just that For Texas to be in play when you're seeing these big swings It means it's worth looking at and I'm somebody who Last go around I was like leave Texas alive. It's not gonna happen But I think you know Ohio now will look very competitive in this type of environment

1:16:02Especially for an award where you got shared Brown Running and so this is a good first step in my opinion All right, everybody close out well recent Bollard podcast guess Bobby Polito and Bollard fan and um Musician what's what kind of music does he do not Latina music? Anyway, whatever It's not my cup of tea exactly, but he was great. I liked him a lot Very interested candidate. Sorry. We have one thing I'm in the chat from Matt Marshall our buddy Texas Supreme Court is temporarily blocked a Dallas judges order to keep the polls open until nine And ordered the county to separate out votes from people who are not in line at seven p.m This is not a final ruling, but we'll create chaos and getting the results. So why would they possibly do that? The It's almost as if you think

1:17:03Tehano music is the kind of music I was talking about the volume leader does It's almost as if the Republicans that run Texas want people to not have faith in elections So it makes it easier for them to steal them. It's almost as if that. It's almost as if they're trying to defund Elections of the administration and make this as hard as possible and as confusing as possible So they can do shenanigans in the future. That's just something to keep an eye out. So that's a negative thing on the positive side James Telleriko Renegade campaign With a big win over Jasmine Crockett on the Republican side John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are going to a runoff Which means that they're gonna have to spend a lot of rich Republicans money trying to prop John Cornyn up That's great. We like that Dan Crenshaw good riddance Lost a primary to a Mr. Toath Tough titties for you Dan Crenshaw and does some democratic overperformance in other places. So Generally a good night. We appreciate you guys for doing this with us

1:18:04We have made many primary nets ahead. So yes leave some comments Let us know what you thought about how this things went We will take your notes. I'll take your negative criticisms You know, if you don't like to see if you don't like the ads I've seen some complaining about ads in the chat go ahead and become a subscriber Just be a ten bucks a month and you know what you can watch all of these as we get into primary season There'll be lots of them. There will be no commercials. I know they're interrupting us So just go subscribe guys Subscribe for free or subscribe paid and you'll never see the ads again That's Sarah Longwell. You would never hear me saying she looks old Because she looks amazing. She's the publisher Jonathan last Let it all through the tried newsletter. I'm I'm an aging to Miller What a night. I'll see you tomorrow on the podcast Later y'all subscribe tell your friends