Stocks Surge on Ceasefire: Your Next Move 4/8/26

0:00What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women, changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice. Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself, like the short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things. Julia Borsten hosts CMBC Changemakers and Powerplayers. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CMBC's Half-Time Report, the podcast, the most profitable hour of the trading day. You record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern, listen in. Carl, thanks. Welcome to the Half-Time Report. I'm Scott Wapner, front and center of this hour. You know the story today, surging stocks on the cease-fire news. Oil's plunging, bond yields are down. We discuss what to do now with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour. Joe Ternova, Shannon Sikosa, Jason Snipe, and Stephen Weiss.

1:02Let's check the markets because we've moved back higher now. We're about 1200 or so up on the Dow. We're better than 2.5% on the Nasdaq the Dow. The S&P is just about there. But there's the move and crude below 95 bucks. Ed Yardeni reiterating his 7,700 target now. He says, Apocalypse Now, not fun strats. Mark Newton, he's the technician there. He says, I expect the S&P to push back to new all-time highs in the months to come. Could rally to 7,300 into August. Joe, you get the first crack at this today. Yeah, you probably will see those price levels in the interim. I think you're going to have continued elevated volatility for sure. If you look at the various exchanges today, which had been trading higher leading into USA, they're a little bit lower. I'll take the other side of that and suggest all of you. You allocate in that direction. But I think what's important about today is today is a growth story. It is a momentum story. It is not a value story. It is not a broadening out story. It's not the S&P equal weight versus the S&P market cap.

2:04S&P equal weight is actually underperforming. Significant out performance in growth today. 125 basis points. Technology, but it's semiconductors. That's where the momentum has been. Momentum has not been in software. You're not seeing a dramatic revival in performance from software itself. So I think you want to focus on that element of the story. The fact that it is a return to momentum, the fact that it is a return to growth, and then the Mag 7, I mentioned yesterday alphabet, made up my final trade. We finally have a Mag 7 name that is higher for 20, 20 cents. It is alphabet. Don't you, I mean, it's almost everything is up, right? To certain degrees for sure. Are the banks in your value box or no? So they're up a lot. The banks are industrials in your value box because they're up a lot. So industrials are in the momentum box. Everything starts with momentum today. Throw up momentum. Look, I don't talk a lot about the performance of JOTE on the show.

3:09You could see where JOTE is relative to everything else today. Why? It's momentum in its growth. Look at the momentum ETF. That's higher. So to your question, in financials, yes, financials were the momentum sector coming into 2026. All the momentum funds were allocated in that direction. So seeing the significant recovery rally that we're seeing in a lot of the banks, as you mentioned, that benefits momentum, industrials. That's where momentum resided. Momentum was not in software coming into the month of March. So today, it's benefiting from not having that allocation software is underperforming. All right. Shen, 7,700 now from Yard Denney reiterating that, are we, I don't want to say all clear because there are obvious risks that still exist. And no one's suggesting, hey, everything's back to complete normal. But maybe we're trending towards getting to the other side. So what do I do in that scenario?

4:11Well, I think that our view is that looking beyond this conflict and though it sounds naive in any given day, given the uncertainty around policy announcements, and the likelihood of continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East, I mean, I think when we talk about beyond the conflict, one thing I do want to acknowledge is that there was essentially a premium in oil prices coming into this conflict. And we believe that some of that premium will remain. And so there are going to continue to be dialogue narrative around oil prices. But in terms of looking at coming into the year and going back to the fundamental opportunities that we saw, those areas that you just talked about and that Joe mentioned from a momentum perspective, areas like technology and financials and parts of the industrial sector, those are areas where we felt those valuations were vulnerable in June, July, August of last year. Those have become more attractive, consistent and coincident with continued economic momentum, the economy in the US continues to grow, and Scott, strong earnings expectations for this year.

5:11So this opportunity that's being presented is to kind of come back into potentially US large caps, find some of those opportunities, and invest and perhaps take some of that capital that you may have had diversified away from technology and financials. That's an opportunity to potentially move back into some of those names as we start to see the relative attractiveness of US large caps come back to the fore. We'll get to specific positioning in a moment. Jason, 67, 67 was the 50-day moving average for the S&P 500. So we're back above that. Now we did get above it, off the open. We dropped down below it because we've had a little volatility on some headlines about the straight-up or moves, but now we are back above that level again. What are you watching most of all today? So for me, it's definitely growth, it's definitely tech. It's a lot of what Joe already said in terms of momentum and turning the pace to the earning story, right?

6:11So in earnest, we know that 12% earnings growth expected for Q1, Q2, 17% earnings growth, Q3, 19%, Q4, 18%. So we know the earning story is relatively strong going forward. I think for me, and this is something that you have talked about all over the last couple of weeks, it's this post-war playbook that I think is very important from a tactical perspective. So if I look at the Mag 7 multiple, the compression that we've seen over the last several weeks, I mean, the multiple is now below what staples are trading for. We know relatively, for a relative perspective, staples are always expensive, but this is an opportunity in that space, and I think that's where my eyeballs will be. Nasdaq's ripping, obviously, we're about a 3% gain, just shy-wise of that. So put everything into context in your own mind. Many of the calls out today assume now the worst is past. Risks are obviously still there. No one's naive, suggesting otherwise. But the fact that if the worst is, in fact, in the rear view,

7:14how does that shape your investing mindset? Very positively, and I believe it is, and yes, there will be fits and starts with. But Trump was clearly looking for an off-ramp for the last couple of weeks. He got the off-ramp. I don't believe, well, it may be some bluster. I just don't believe we go back to the depths of worries that we had. So that's really all clear. So now what we're facing is a robust earning season up close to 15%. Guidance, that should be at the very least, relief, and not focus on oil, if folks are coming down. So I think it sets up very positively for the market to move higher. The question is, and Joe partially addressed this. And while moment strategy is clearly strategy, and obviously a firm believer in that's in Jotie, that's not how I look at it. I'm not trying to discern, is it going to be more, is it going to be growth? I'm strictly bottom-up fundamental. And what I still see, the lagers I see today, I still see Microsoft up half of what the indices are.

8:17Puzzling lead. I've got your palette here's red. It's not like every single stock sales force. Exactly, you know, United Health is down a little bit. It moves up 15% or so yesterday. So I get that Netflix hasn't moved. So I still think when all this goes away, whether we're up 2.5% or 3.5% or on some stocks a lot more, it's eventually going to go back to that trade saying stock pickers market, and that's where we'll wind up. Okay, so let's go specific positioning here. At the very least, is it time to bounce the things that ran up the most during the war? Like you did today with CF. Yesterday. Oh, that's a big difference. No, I understand. I understand there's a huge difference in price, but the chart is making the case of where I'm why I'm even asking the question. So the answer to your question is, and I said this yesterday, if you had hedges on against the conflict

9:19yesterday was the time to take off the hedges or at least reduce that positioning. And I feel even stronger about that today. What were the hedges? The hedges were areas of the energy market where you could see alternate production, whether it was Suncore or Petrobras in fertilizer. It was CF industries, which yesterday I sold half in the morning. I sold half when the announcement came out later in the day. The hedges are what you wanted to identify, and you wanted to reduce those yesterday. And after last evening, I think you want to take those off. Everybody agree with that, Chan? I mean, you all the big energy names, let's cycle through some of them. Exxon, Chevron, you know the biggest names. They're the biggest losers on a day like today. Guys, show those if you can, please. So there's some of the names which show you exactly what I'm talking about. Go, yeah, whatever. You can do that or show a board of, it makes the same. It makes the same. A logo to make sure it would be helpful also on these. Well, sure, but this is why we're asking the question.

10:21If you, like you said, if Steve's right, and this is kind of an all clear, what she said, do you sell these names? I mean, number one, I think there's a lot of people that have very little exposure to these names as it is. I mean, energy is a very small part of the index, and so many people may have bought in more recently. I think Scott, there's also, as I mentioned, there's, you know, we're not going back to October, well, energy prices, either though. So it depends on your positioning and how much you've bought into this. So could there still be opportunities in areas like refiners perhaps? Is there going to be near-term pressure on integrators which generally don't capture the up move and really, you know, generally don't tend to capture as much of the down move, but still move in sentiment? I think the challenges here, Scott, is that there is likely to continue to be volatility, and so you could be a bit more tactical in playing some of these names over the next six to eight weeks. The bottom line is that there has been some supply destruction, and so if you're looking at that break-even price for oil, where you feel comfortable owning an energy company,

11:21that is, you know, you're at a point where that's probably not going to go below that in the near-term, longer-term, however, there are probably better opportunities to be adding to some of these more cyclical areas as I discussed earlier with the acceleration of the U.S. economy. Don't you have exposure here when you no longer do? I no longer do, and I think, you know, is it next on? Well, what was that? No, it was actually a chevron. A chevron in the XLE, and I think to Shannon's point, I mean, oil, particularly for the fully integrated, I don't know if it's a complete cell out, sell it out completely. I think it's definitely off-loading a significant piece of your position, particularly if you came in overweight, but to Shannon's point, I mean, it's a very small piece of the industry, but as Crew come down, which is down 16%, that's obviously a proxy for the fully integrated names. For me, I would be less than market weight, which, again, is a small position. Within energy, I think you want to keep your positioning with the refineries they've run up significantly. They were already outperforming the rest of the energy sector over the last six months.

12:24You're still going to have challenges as it relates to diesel. You still have domestic challenges on refineries. Keep that there. If you're looking at Exxon, you're looking at chevron, you want to moderate the positioning, where do you go? You go to the oil field services names. Stephanie and I talked about this yesterday. She maintained some of her positioning. I believe in slumberjay, very smart move. We hold in the ETF slumberjay and Baker Hughes, we're being rewarded for that today. The flow of oil through the straight is good for the oil field services name. If you want comprehensive exposure, you own the OAH. Yeah, I think that's right. But I also think you can go to Honeywell, where there's exposure in oil field equipment. 100% flow serve, look, who knows. I think it's doubtful that we all have a sudden partner with Iran and remove all sanctions. But oil, aside from the temporary disruptions, they'll be cured. And I think oil takes another leg down. But for the oil service stocks, for the oil equipment providers, I think that's particularly very fertile ground.

13:24If some of these names like the oil ones, if they become a source of funds in, like they're obviously today in some respects, where's that money going to flow to the growth? I see it going to growth, yes. I see it growing the growth. I see it going to semiconductors. I see it going back into the AI infrastructure story because that's where you know you get the reliable growth. You know the earning season's coming up, and where am I going to find, and where have I been rewarded for investing into the growth, and it's the AI infrastructure story. It's still in the dust frills, and it's a lot of things. I know Shannon doesn't agree with you. I know what I can tell by the way. I can tell by the way she was listening, and not exactly a full-blown facial expression. However, there was enough vibe being given off, because I think you still believe in the big broadening trade that we had that worked real well off the beginning of the year. I believe there's still more room to run there, where I would agree with Joe, though. Go to the disagree first.

14:25Okay, so I understand it. Where I would disagree, where I would disagree. Go read stocks here. I thought you up. Don't give me the agree. I know what the disagree. I think that there are still a lot of places that are very reasonably valued, and cyclicality, you look at manufacturing numbers, you look at the continued resilience of the consumer, there is still a lot of opportunity in this broadening out trade that hasn't been fully captured in the last three years of trailing returns. And yes, could we get seeabouts? But there's also, if you think about technology in terms of the Mag 7, or the Mega 8, or whatever you want to call it, there's still a lot of dispersion there. And so I feel like you have to be selective and prescriptive within that universe. And so for me, it's not a kind of a full-blown moment to move back into all of technology, and again, not semi-versa-software, but even within those large tech companies, I think that there still is dispersion to ahead. Let's talk about one of those large tech companies right now. Guys, throw up Meta, Intraday, Stocks Rippin. It's up right now, 6%. I think I see it.

15:26They debut, the story just moving. Bloomberg's got a story that Meta debuts its first AI model from its prize, Super Intelligence Group. That story just hit a few minutes ago. Look, say it again. Oh, good. Okay, Julia Borson has this news, actually, for Julia. What do we know here? Because it's obviously moving the stock. Yes, we have the news. Scott Meta launching his long-awaited new AI model called Muse Spark. This was originally codenamed Avocado. It's launching a Meta AI app and website today, rolling out to its other apps and AI glasses in coming weeks. Now, Meta says Muse Spark is its most powerful model yet, but instead of launching with a massive sophisticated model to compete with the likes of Chatchee PT or Gemini, which many expected given Meta's spending, this is a more limited release as Meta's Super Intelligence Lab labs chief Alex Wang slowly rolls out his work. Now, Muse Spark seems initially focused on custom uses for Meta's apps with a special mode

16:29for shopping, surfacing ideas from creators that users already follow, and visual coding tools to create websites or minigames to play with friends. Now, Muse Spark is the product of Wang's nine months of building Meta's Super Intelligence Labs along with hundreds of billions of dollars of investment and AI infrastructure following the disappointment of Meta's prior AI models. Now, Meta seems to be trying to lower expectations and address potential criticism given Meta's AI spending, saying that this is only the start and we have larger models in development, including a more sophisticated contemplating mode, which Meta says is competitive with frontier models, such as Gemini DeepThink and GPT Pro, that model they say will roll out later. Notably, Meta's also opening the door to a new AI revenue stream, saying it plans to eventually offer paid access to this model's API like Anthropics Clawed and Google's Gemini Do. Meta shares now up about six and a half percent, Scott.

17:31They are ripping on this news. Julia, thank you so much for that. It's Julia Borscht and Steve Weiss, you own the name. Yeah, and then now it's back to my largest position given the performance today. Look, you're going to see more of this, not just from Meta, but just Steve from others, as they now get a return to the investment, the major investment they met in AI. And what this does is it creates or strengthens the mode around them and then gives them more products for advertising, for subscription fees. So you're seeing the transformation real time today and I believe it's going to continue. I do not believe that Meta, given their market leading position in their area, is inextensive here. And if I didn't have such a full position, I don't know that it by today, but I definitely had to. I mean, Amazon and Alphabet are also up, are also up better than three and a half percent. Amazon's target to 260 at Canner, Alphabet, top pick also at Canner. Jason, stocks are just, I mean, I understand everything's up,

18:33but you get a sense that investors are dying to ride these things again. A hundred percent. And maybe they want to do it before earning season really gets hot and heavy for these names. Right, a hundred percent. And I mean, we were talking about earnings earlier. I mean, 45% year-over-year growth for tech. These are significant numbers. And as it relates to Amazon, in my opinion, I mean, this is a name, again, retail has held in. There's been resiliency in the consumer. AWS has re-accelerated 20 plus percent north growth rate. Operation margins are coming back online in very meaningful way. So I like that name. And especially with the multiple coming in, with all of them, but Amazon in particular, I like that one. Speaking of multiples coming in, they had come in to a reasonable degree in cyber. Some of those names certainly year to date. If you want to cycle through some of the charts, so you've got the big end-thropic news today, project last-wing with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto

19:37as key partners. The narrative around cyber hasn't been great and that AI is going to displace a lot of this and make it easier for smaller companies to develop their own systems using artificial intelligence. So this is a big deal that's been moving some of these names. Can we show, guys, some of the names today off of that and show that Jason, you bought more Palo Alto. I do, Palo Alto, please. I did, thank you. And guess what, obviously, this project last-wing story is a huge catalyst for the entire group. But a lot of the names obviously have been falling in this kind of software slide. But for me, aside from the project last-wing news, which I think is a major catalyst and very important to mention, they've been in acquisition mode for several quarters, right? Hoi, coronavirus fear, cyber art, they spent almost $30 billion and then you heard from Aurora just a couple weeks ago in terms of him making a capital investment of $10 million and buying some of the shares. So he's clearly showing his interest

20:39and obviously his confidence in the position going forward. But the other point I want to make is this kind of harmonious story that I think is possible with software and AI and that's what we're seeing with this project last-wing story. Okay, the other group that's up a lot, Joe was talking about the chips. The chip equipment names are up a bunch. Lamb applied, Marvell, KLA, take your pick, they're all running. You own most, if not all of these. This is on some more relief specifically too, right? Absolutely, yes. And it's also some of the optical names like GLW. It's the memory names as well. But remember again, that's where the momentum resided. Jay respectfully, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, I'd love to get back into these names. I look at these names today, Palo Alto. I'm somewhat disappointed. It's only a 1.3% trading at the bottom of the range. So what Scott's identifying with those industries, that's where the momentum was embedded. And when that momentum kind of maintains itself, like it has, you see investors quickly make a dash

21:41and return to memory, to optical, and to the semi-equipment names. Guys, let's, you can say something. No, I was just going to say it's going to get there. I hear exactly what you're saying. But again, when I hear about this tool that Anthropica's obviously developed, and I just see that store, there's more fire to that store. And I think that will continue. All right, let's do this. Let's just take a break. Let's do that. We got the markets rep, we'll come back. We got more committee moves ahead to tell you about Jason and Steve are selling out of a couple of trades that they had, and we have our calls to the day ahead as well. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women, changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice. Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself, like the short, and you just got to think big

22:42to accomplish big things. Julie Aborston hosts CNBC Changemakers and Powerplayers. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. It's in another committee move we have for you today. Why is you sold FTAI? You're out of that completely now? I'm out of it completely, and I didn't sell it today. I sold it yesterday, and the reason I did it is I have so much bait in my portfolio with the other names. The stock has not been acting well, not recovering well. Obviously today is side, so it was relatively small position, and I didn't want to hedge and go short the market, because I thought this would sort of happen, didn't have enough conviction. Obviously to have a lot of exposure, that would happen. So there's sort of an edge in taking off a highly volatile,

23:43baited, light position. Obviously there's a mistake, but that's what hedging is. Well, I mean, it's hard to, you know, time anything. It was the right move at the right at that time. OK. General Dynamics today, cut to a hold from by Deutsche Target to 387 from 404, valuations challenged. They say, and they say that the growth advantage to their peers is, quote, likely to shrink over time. Joe T, what do you think? We established a position in this name back in October. We could broaden out that chart and show a year to date. What's interesting about it is General Dynamics actually peaked in January. You would think, Scott, that with the conflict in the Middle East, a lot of these defense stocks would rally. That's the opposite of what has happened. So there has to be a coordinated global effort to increase defense spending. Yes, we know here in the US, we are going to increase that spending. Logically, you would seem to think that the fundamentals would align themselves with the defense names actually moving higher. But in fact, they are not. We're still maintaining the position.

24:44Technically, it looks good. You're getting 10% revenue growth. But you're going to have to see a coordinated increase in defense spending to get the stocks going. All right. Jevrenova, target to $1,000 and $8 from 923 at Barrett Alperform, Weiss, and then. Look, I mean, I hope it gets there. I own this, it's a mid-sized position. It's been very good to me, but I still believe it's overvalued. But I'm riding this, particularly having got rid of FTAI, which is in a related business power for data centers. This one more advanced, more shots on goal. But I'm sticking with it for now. Okay, Eaton, target to $4.39 from 407 at RBC, Jason Snyde. It's been a great stock all year, right? That's up 21%. I mean, it sits in this place of these mega trends and any transition, digitization, quarter over quarter data center orders are actually up 200%. So I continue to like this name.

25:44I'm just kind of on the value plate early part of the year, but I think that story continues to come. Travelers, 331 from 312 at Barrett Plays. You have this one, right? Yep, and I would imagine we'll maintain the positioning. And I think those that are allocated towards specifically insurers and property and college casualty should do the same. The cops for catastrophic losses and the upcoming earnings report are going to look really good. Okay, got some calls on staples today. Piper has cut the price target on Colgate, Paul Molle. That's number one. It was 96, now it's 92. Wells Fargo has cut the target to 92 from 100. Goldman cuts the target to 98 from 100. Just buy a couple bucks, you have this stock. Yeah, I mean, volume pressures, raw material calls, I think are as part of the story there. I think the focus for me is they continue to focus on the analytics, online sales, efficiency on supply chain. So I think it's up 7% year to date. So it's obviously outperformed in the top tapes. So I continue to like this one for some of the productive reasons

26:44in terms of what's going on with the analyst. They also lowered the price target on Proctor. Yeah, you would you have as well. Yeah, so that stock hasn't performed nearly as well as roughly flat for the year. I think they're really focusing on product innovation, product improvements and better advertising. I think that's the story for them. But again, when there's one to three percent in organic growth, it's always a tough tape when it's trading at 20 plus times forward earners. So I think this is always a tough one when kind of the narrative is starting to shift. Staples are up more than 7% year to date. We think they're too expensive or no? Probably in an environment where we're expecting kind of a recovery in the equity market and less defense, more offense. They're probably spending overspending for that. And we still have inflationary impacts. Those aren't going to go away overnight. You're not worried about that? No, I definitely am. I definitely am. Like if Joe is right with his general market view, isn't that just an absolute negative for Staples names? It is, but I believe in the efficiencies like the objectives and the focus on efficiencies

27:46for these stories, I think they can manage through. Okay, Christina Parts and Evelos has a CNBC news update for us, hi there. Hi Scott. Cassidy Hutchinson, the former White House aide and star witness at the January 6 hearings is reportedly being investigated by the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division. That's according to The New York Times, which says the probe actually began a few weeks ago when the DOJ received a referral from a Trump ally who accused Hutchinson of lying during her testimony. The DOJ's civil rights unit usually focuses on abuses such as police misconduct as well as racial discrimination. Democratic backed candidate Chris Taylor, won a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court yesterday, growing the liberal majority of the court. Taylor is a former Democratic state legislator and focused her campaign on abortion rights. Her win ensures a 10 year term and it's the fourth straight victory for liberal court candidates in Wisconsin, dating back to 2020. And Greece's prime minister said the country will ban social media for kids under 15 years old, starting in January, 2027. The Greek government has already outlawed mobile phones

28:47in schools and set up parental control platforms to limit teen screen time. Greece's parliament will legislate the ban in mid-2026. All right, Christina thanks, Christina Farts, and all those. Coming up, Jason just made a big move in a stock that had its best days since August. We'll tell you what it is next. As America celebrates its 250th anniversary, CNBC spotlights the companies that rose with the nation and continue to shape its future. I'm Craig E. Zilgin, owner and president of the Avada Zilgin Company, a manufacturer of musical instruments. The company was originally started in 1623 in Istanbul by Avada Zilgin I. Avada was an alchemist and what he created was a unique alloy that produced beautiful, clear sounding symbols. Then in 1929, my grandfather, Avada Zilgin III,

29:48relocated the company here in America. We've been proudly made in America ever since. America is the largest market for musical instruments and the birth of jazz in America provided an opportunity. Being in America gave us access to these artists. They could come into the factory and we could make new sounds together. And my grandfather was unstoppable. His resilience and deep passion led us through the depression and World War II, where we had the war production board putting metal on allocation. When Ringo Star, the Beatles performed on the Ed Sullivan Show in the 1960s, overnight everyone wanted to be a drummer. That created a back order of about 90,000 symbols. It made Zilgin the symbol of choice for rock and roll drummers. Being a multi-generational company we're focused on stewardship and the legacy of the brand.

30:52What makes a family business overall so successful is the long-term perspective that is unique to private companies. I think it's exciting to see that next generation of Zilgin family members learning the business and carrying on the core family values that have been passed down for generations. We're excited to see where the music takes us. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women, changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice. Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself, like the short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things. Julie Aborston hosts CNBC Changemakers and Powerplayers. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.

31:59All right, we got another move to tell you about and it is United Health, which Jason Snipe has now sold. Completely? Completely, yes, completely. So obviously we got some good news from the CMS on reimbursement rates, which at two and a half percent and in January, basically that number was flat. So the stock is up almost 13% in the last five days. But for me, I don't think that's enough in the short run. Medical elevated medical cost trends are gonna still be very challenging going forward. Hemsley is a known commodity. I love him as a CEO and I think he'll ride the ship. But I think in the next six to nine months, this is dead money for me. I know there was a story early on where a lot of people got to the exits early. I wasn't one of them, so I decided to get out now. What do you think? Disagree. Oh. Don't be more. Wow. It's very confrontational to tell me more. I love it. I love it. So it's hard to argue, you know, you go from zero percent to two and a half percent when medical costs are probably running it

33:01twice that, two extra that if not more. But the reality is that this is a supportive sign for the government in terms of being more realistic in terms of Medicare and Vantage reimbursement rates. The other thing is that there is likelihood for UNH to continue to expand margins. They're getting a handle on MLRs, medical loss ratios. This is not just a UNH story, this is a managed care story. And so our view is that we're constructive on managed care and we believe that there is room to run. This is just another kind of notch in terms of support in the government for that view. I just think it's going to take a, Mr. Snipe. Right. I think I just think it's going to take a lot more time for them to kind of get running to your point. And I think that's the most salient point reimbursement rates, medical cost trends, double what the medical, what the reimbursement rates are. And I think it's just going to take too much time to catch up. Why don't you still have UNH? I still have UNH and it is going to be a tough year.

34:03Okay, there's no doubt about it. You still have V28 coming in. These changes, they're coding and things like that. But nonetheless, they are spending a billion and a half on AI for enhancements on the cost structure, which I think will be very, very helpful. They still are the biggest. Hemsley got them to a record stock price before. He's back fully engaged. So I'm writing it out, you know, could fall back. Yeah, it's got a history of being very volatile. But, but I like it, you know, bottom line. Okay, I'm speaking with my feed, it's in the portfolio. Okay, let's go, some health care calls Merck. Target goes to 150 today at Wolf, it was 142. Joe, you have that right now. That would make it an all-time high. And I do think it could get to that price point. Sooner rather than later, we're pressing up against the high for the year at around 125. They go one year, going back two year high rather is 134. They're diversifying the model. They understand the patent expiration as it relates to Katrina, which is literally 50% of their overall sales that diversifying

35:04they made a recent acquisition. Now they're in the leukemia treatment. So the company is doing the right things anticipating that patent expiration. Okay, what about Amgen? Which Truus took to 325 from 319. They have a hold on it. They're only looking for a modest revenue beat for the quarter. So what do you think about that? So the market, when it does go and search for growth as I believe it is right now, it goes to biotech in the healthcare sector. And large cap biotech in particular, Amgen is a clear leader in that regard. I think that price target is somewhat low. I think you should, I would increase that. I think the stock is, if you pull that back over the last one year, you could see that it's breaking out. And they are delivering in terms of revenue and strengthening the balance sheet. So be good for your IBB, right? Without a doubt. And I think, you know, the other part of the story, is Pat and Cliffs are obviously coming off the boil.

36:04And I think that's going to be continued. Now rates have risen recently, but I think that's also going to be a catalyst for IBB. What about Ab-V? Which got the target cut by $10, $242.50 at Canter. Yeah, and it's down mostly for the year. And I think the story has really been this new J&J slash protagonist drug that is competing directly with SkyRizzy. One of my favorite drugs, right? But I think that's really, there's overhang on the stock currently. OK, Centolli. And it's midday word on this very big day in the market this next. Now we're seeing the markets commentator and overtime co-anchor.

37:05Mike Centolli joins us now with his midday word. Does this have enough going right for it that it's believable? Or do we need to see something else in your mind to go along with it? What do you think? I think it's got a little bit to prove. I would say, first of all, it's believable in the sense that it's all quite rational to get up, you know, 2, 2.5%, you're slicing off. I think some of the sort of more outsized risk scenarios you might have been facing 24 hours ago. And so the market's going to kind of go station to station to its next test. If you're kind of looking tactically at a lot of the metrics you'd want to see if this was going to be a real momentum stampede to the upside, not quite making the grade on that. It's like 75% upside volume in the New York Stock Exchange. The rally has kind of halted exactly where you might have expected it would take a pause. It sort of went up, you know, to the 50-day moving average just sat there for most of the day. So I do think all that is sensible. But it's not something that tells us that you're achieving escape velocity today.

38:07And maybe that makes sense, right? You have oils off the lows of the morning. Yields are also off the lows of the morning. So it feels as if it's wait and see. I think you can assume a tactical low is in from a couple of weeks ago. And now it's a matter of trying to prove it and also to decide if fact it was all around an oil in the first place. And whether we've kind of dealt with the other issues that we were contending with since October Frank. For those who don't follow it quite as closely, when you say 70% upside day is not exactly what you would really love to see, it's more like 90 or so. 90 is. 90 is why that's important. Yeah, I mean, beyond the obvious. Sure. No, 90% of volume two in advancing stocks is historically correlated with one of these real buying frenzies that tends to insulate the market. Along with some other measures, now this is a thing called a breath thrust, which did fire shortly after the low in April of 2025.

39:07And what that really means is historically, it's insulated the market from significant downside over the next few months. It basically gives you a six to nine month, 12 month runway to say you're almost always higher over that span. And we're just somewhat shy of that. And by the way, that sort of makes sense because we weren't coming from as deep a hole and we weren't as washed out. We didn't get as oversold as you often do in these really deep corrections. So I think it makes sense that we didn't necessarily have quite as much fuel. I mean, yeah, plenty of negative sentiment and oversold conditions to burn off and go higher from here. But it's just not quite as tightly wound as you sometimes are. All right, great insight. I love you dropping that knowledge on us in our viewers. Michael, thank you. I'll see you later, Mike Centoli. Delta shares flying higher today along with the travel trade. No big shock, but we did have Delta earnings. Joe's in it. He'll tell you what to do next. All right, Delta shares are popping today.

40:18You see 6% no big surprise. A lot of the travel names are obviously. But this company did have earnings. You own the stock. So what's your read through on this? Just obviously the news in the moment, but plus the earnings, plus still cautious commentary related to energy prices and the drag that it's going to be on these companies. And there should be. I still think you should have a cautious outlook as it relates to all travel names. I think this is an idiosyncratic story. This is about premium and pricing power in the front of the plane. And really what Delta has done, which I believe every airline should be pursuing, is the 2012 acquisition of a refinery in Philadelphia, which basically cost them less than $250 million. It was $150 million in a purchase price from Philip 66. The state gave them back $30 million. They invested $100 million in it. And if you look going forward, Ed Bastion told you today that they're going to see probably about a $400 million fuel cost savings in the second quarter from that.

41:19That does not mean they're not going to have a higher fuel cost. In front of them, he guided to $2 billion as we approach through the end of June. So that's still there. I think it's idiosyncratic with Delta. As you said, I think you still have to be cautious on travel. I don't think you have the all clear there. I mean, cruises are up a bunch today, casinos. Relief rally. Yeah, of course. More than anything else. But it actually has legs, though. I mean, if there's reason to have such strong relief. Well, that's part of the point. Royal Caribbean has been a really strong name. It's a momentum name. So it's participating in that momentum story and rebound that we're seeing today. Again, Royal Caribbean's idiosyncratic. I don't think you could have this universal assumption that all travel is going to be good. OK. We're back right after this.

42:22So Robin Hood for us, guys, because the stocks of 10% or at least it was, that's up 5%. But you get the idea. Big pop in that name today. Relief rally for certain. Robin Hood, the retail investor engagement, got to be good. Bitcoins bounce. Got to be good, right? Bitcoins been up a bunch today, too. So that one's up. Just wanted to show you that. And let's talk about gold for a second as well today, because the gold trade is working today, too, up 2%. The miners are getting a lift. Why should you own the GLD? What do we do for a trade that's been kind of volatile of late? It has. I personally think you hold gold. And there's a place for the portfolio. I didn't always think that. And I'm not always going to think that either. But right now, I think it's going to move back up to where the highs were. You're shaking out a lot of the tours. And it'll gain some traction. Now you're a believer in gold. I think you said you've had no intrinsic value. You could invalidate. No, no, no. You could invalidate. No, but you said in gold for a long time, you couldn't value it.

43:24Gold is what you said you haven't always been a believer. No, I haven't. And gold is difficult to value, because like oil, it's difficult to value. There's a lot of speculators and traders. Come on, new traders in it. But nonetheless, I think it regains its footing in Uzair. It's risk on. It is the end of March. Gold's risk on? I think gold is risk on now. The end of March, I bought the GLD at 404. That's for trade. It's not for some strong fundamental belief on monetary policy or anything else. Let me know when you get out before you get out. Why is that, Steve? You want to spot it? That's what it was sell first, man. We'll do finals next. We'll do finals next time. All right, great luck today. Closing Bell is going to be an active final hour of trade with Tom Lee, Mina Flynn, Jeff DeGraf, Marco Cotta, and Shinoli Bassigan. I hope you'll join me then. See what this market does over that last hour of trade. Mr. Weiss. Lighthouse. Trade to you. Lighthouse, it's lagging terms of performance today.

44:27It's up less than 1%. There is a slight software overhang here, but I think they'll be able to come it because they are an AI leader in the space. OK, who's got Goldman? Goldman, that's me. Goldman Sachs. Poor some Monday. I think Capitol Mark is revenue will continue to search. Shannon. Consumer discretionary, not all of the tax refund increase will be cannibalized by higher energy prices. All right, he talked about GLW, right? Benefits from the relationship with Meta. Building out AI infrastructure. Meta's ripping too. I'll see you at three. You've been listening to CNBC's Half-Time Report, The Podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern, only on CNBC. All opinions expressed by the Half-Time Report participants are solely their opinions. And do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion.

45:27Such opinions are based upon information the Half-Time Report participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries pour it, its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Do you view the full Half-Time Report disclaimer, please visit CNBC.com forward slash Half-Time Report disclaimer. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women, changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice. Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself, like the short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things. Julia Bourston hosts CNBC Changemakers and Powerplayers. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.