About this episode
This week in the podcast, our
latest thoughts on economic expectations, sentiment, and valuations. The big
things you need to know: First, the S&P 500 is still trading as though it’s
experiencing a growth scare, a framework that has been pointing to downside in
the S&P 500 to ~3,850. Current trends in economic forecasts continue to
support the idea that this is the right way to think about how far stocks
should fall. Second, institutional investor sentiment has made significant
progress catching down to retail investor sentiment, with overall US equity
futures positioning among asset managers now below 2020 & Great Financial
Crisis lows, and getting close to 2011 and 2015/2016 lows – something that
makes the case for a bottoming in stocks relatively soon if recession fears can
be kept at bay. Third, while valuations aren’t yet a reason to buy US equities
on their own, they are no longer a problem for the market as a whole.
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