Stafford’s Regression Risk | Los Angeles Rams News

0:00It's September 4th. Welcome to Los Angeles Rams News Today. AI-powered coverage of your squad. I'm Cory with the story. The Los Angeles Rams success hinges on Matthew Stafford, especially heading into the 2026 season. He's been the driving force since arriving, leading them to a super bowl with crucial fourth-quarter comebacks and exceeding expectations in recent years. Last season, he played at an MVP level, taking the team to the NFC Championship game. To meet their high hopes this year, Stafford needs to perform like a top five quarterback. This means he'll have to overcome a concerning career pattern, a significant drop in production following his best seasons. For example, after throwing 41 touchdowns in 2011, his numbers plummeted the next year. Similarly, after another 41 touchdown season in 2021, his pace slowed considerably before an injury in 2022. Last year, Stafford set a career high with 46 touchdown passes. The Rams can't afford a massive dip from that.

1:01While they don't need another 40 plus touchdown season, a performance closer to 20 touchdowns would make winning the super bowl extremely difficult. They likely need him to throw at least 25. Looking at the numbers, Stafford's touchdown rate last season was nearly double his previous best. If he maintains a similar number of passatims but returns to his career touchdown rate of 4.8%, that would put him around. 26 touchdowns, which is manageable. However, a drop to a 3.5% rate would mean fewer than 20 touchdowns, a scenario the offense would struggle to overcome. Interestingly, Stafford's performance has historically been better in odd numbered years compared to even ones. His three seasons with a quarterback rating over 100 all occurred in odd years and he averages more yards in touchdowns per game during those periods. The Rams have been proactive this offseason, managing his workload to keep him fresh, hoping to mitigate any potential regression and break this.

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